 Hi, my name is Leon Roe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180 comm and welcome to this week's applying demand for its technical Analysis if you are new welcome and if you're returning welcome back, and I really do hope that you are finding my weekly videos very useful and It's improving your trading and you're getting a bit of an insight as to how to really apply fundamentals and risk sentiment analysis to your technical analysis The pairs of timestamps in the description box below. So if you want to skip to your favorite pairs, you're more than welcome to But you'll be skipping out on a few, you know, quite a bit of Fundamental and sentiment as we know that fundamentals and sentiment are really what drives the market And then we look to the technicals for our entries. So starting off on This week's upcoming news So week ahead the Fed Bank of England and Bank of Japan will be deciding on interest rates next week and That's quite important Federal reserve has been a lot of talk recently about the federal reserve potentially cutting rates and Factoring in Rate cut because inflation has been a bit soft The economy is still holding up still the best of really the the other Seven countries and economies, but I guess traders are anticipating an effect of the trade war on the US economy, so This is the CME Fed watch tool and this basically gives probability of a rate hike and what really financial institutions are looking at And they still consider that there's going to be a 70 percent 76 percent Chance of no change in a 23 percent chance of an ease so even though the The market is talking up a rate cut Maybe not in this or the probability of a rate cut in you know on the 19th make not might not be The best bet, but if we go to July 31st million You've actually got an 87 percent These bias and this changes by the way this changes on a daily basis so depending on obviously the data that comes out if inflation starts to come in if the Economy still starts to grow then I doubt there will be an ease But if data for the US dollar does get significantly worse then probably the bets of an increase Sorry and an ease in interest rates will start to occur so What else do we have so we got? Bank of England, I think they're looking to potentially be a bit hawkish on interest rates depending on them because they're above their inflation target and the bank of Japan will be timing interest rates But no changes are expected on on all they're putting be talking and deciding whether they're dovish hawkish or just Going to hold rates other important releases include u.s flesh manufacturing market PMIs House housing data and current account UK inflation That's going to be quite important and retail trade your own flesh consumer confidence Japan trade balance that's important for the economy inflation as well as it has an effect on interest rates and flesh Nikai Manufacturing PMIs Australia first quarter house prices it we've also got Where's my forex factory I think for a fact we've also got GDP numbers for New Zealand dollar as well So that's going to be quite important for New Zealand dollar in case you're trading In case you're trading that so sentiment-wise We are in a risk-off environment You know Saudi Seeks all supply protection is US and Iran face off So, you know the oil tank of attacks Earlier this week risk-off As well as the Trump trade wars, I guess you want to call it or China Trade Discussions global slowdown so overall There was quite a few risk-off sentiment And events that are going on as well as Brexit in the UK and in Europe so quite a lot so overall I think the risk is is more off than on so if you do want to find out a bit more about how to trade risk on and risk off there is a Free trading 180 course fundamental sentiment analysis for its trading course where you get pretty much Everything I know about interest rates inflation and really how to trade fundamentals and apply fundamentals to your technical analysis and fundamental analysis spreadsheet is Here where you have my Fundamental bias not a risk sentiment bias on the pairs. I'm bullish or bearish on to varying degrees This does not take into account risk off sentiment if risk is on then it supplies if risk is off then the Japanese yen and the Swiss Frank definitely be the The currencies to buy and in fact I have bought a Japanese yen against the euro and I'll show you the trade But let's get into the technicals now And we can start off as we always do on the Dow Jones dollar index and from last week's analysis, this was the Dow Jones dollar index and it came down into this demand zone here and As much as the Non-farm numbers came out as you know terrible I think it came out as a 70 75,000 jobs in it the expected was something like us in maybe this 160 170 the dollar, you know has rallied taking out this this level of supply, excuse me It's level of supply here So going to the charts We can pretty much see what's happened and Let's go to Fitbit tracing and stop tracing some placing some Some demand zone so Again sentiment event with the dollar, but I think over a dollar. I know over the dollar is really the Best currency out of or the best of the worst if you know, I mean they're in the best position when it comes to GDP and inflation so overall So if you do want to be a buyer of the dollar and the dollar index is just a measure of Dollar strength against the major currencies like the euro yen pound and also the Australian dollar so What we'd be looking for is this as confluence when we're buying any of the dollar crosses So if you are looking to buy the dollar this this week going into the The Fed interest rates Announcement then you'd really be looking for any kind of bullish price action or maybe a pullback in Into the weekend to some sort of demand zone and then start to look for some long trades Or what you might see this week is a move higher And if they do cut rates and that's going to be probably a shock to the market As the overall market thinks that there should be at least 76% chance of no change. So that would definitely Wrong foot the market if there is a cut, you know before before July's Announcements that would be prices do drift up here and then you get some sort of, you know bearish You know price action that just adds confluence to the to your trade if you're again, you're buying or selling any of the Dow Crosses or say that crosses, but the dollar crosses. So Again, so we go into the dollar yen the dollar yen this week His zoom in is really just gone sideways and that's really because Through dollar strength, but we've also had yen strength because of the risk-off environment and when you've got two Strong currencies competing against each other, then you tend to get sideways markets and when you get a strong versus a weak currency, that's when you get a Trending market either in the up or down direction. So to Competing currencies and you pretty much this week just seen prices go sideways for the past week. So if we go to Dollar yen really nothing has changed at all, you know from a You know identifying any kind of supplier demand zones as levels Again risk-off the yen does tend to do more than a risk-off environment. So You could see prices Start to break lower if any kind of risk-off events intensify and then what you'd be looking for is You know move back up to what would be considered Supply that would be a supply zone If that does obviously break to the downside But if risk is you know on and the Situations tend to kind of resolve themselves then that the dollar really is the one to buy I think and You could see prices actually end up going higher or what you might want to do is maybe wait for a bit of a pullback and then You know look for any kind of buying opportunities Not only on the daily, but obviously on the lower time frames Trade the four six to eight in a 12 hour So look for those time frames again, you can also use the intraday You know time frames as well depending on what your setup is So moving on to the Swiss And dollar Swiss Last week I was looking for prices to kind of come down into this demand zone Before looking to get long. I do you know prefer Buying me dollar over the Swiss Frank. Unfortunately, we just didn't get any Bearish price action or supply before prices went higher, but now prices have taken out that supply as the as the Dollar is increased in strength. So we look at the charts We can now adjust Start to adjust These zones here. So you've got a nice demand zone there We've made higher highs higher lows. So that's proof of value at the moment So what you'd be looking for if you're looking to buy the dollar you're looking at a move back intraday into the first zone would be here Before looking to get long if you're looking You know at buying at the absolute lows then you'd be waiting for price to really kind of come back down into here before looking at Any kind of buy trades on the dollar and again, it depends on what happens this week If you're looking at sell trades at the moment The only really sell trade zone wise is going to be up here And again, you'd wait for price to come up there and then wait for some sort of risk off sentiment as the Swiss Frank tends to do You know decently in a risk-off environment the dollar also does okay As well in a risk-off environment The Swiss Frank as the Swiss National Bank has said is actually overvalued Down here or highly valued down down at these these areas. So they actually want a cheaper Swiss Frank So it benefits the Swiss Frank for the dollar to increase in value If not if this if these zones don't work out I'll happily be a buyer especially into you know, any of these these zones around the 98 round number And 97 40 97 as well That's a whole zone right there to be a buyer of the dollar from a fundamental perspective So moving on to the dollar CAD the dollar CAD this week The CAD I'm dis-strengthened a bit on some good news last week But we did have some dollar strength really got a bit of a gap down and prices now I've come up into this this supply zone and Looking at the live chart I Think what you've got is Again the dollar being the stronger of the two, but the Canadian dollar isn't too bad It hasn't really benefited from Supply issues with oil I think it's more more risk sentiment is taking over and there's the you know the Canadian dollar is Highly correlated to Oil and if you have supply issues Prices of oil should go up and the Canadian dollar should benefit from that But we haven't seen that so far and we say highly correlated. It's not 100% You know kind of correlated. There are moments where it doesn't This is one of those obviously moments as well plus if you were actually shorting here You know choosing to short here and what you're saying is that the Canadian dollar is going to strengthen against the US dollar So what you've been looking for maybe this week is again the interest rate potential interest rate cut If you're on foot to the market, that's going to be a great zone in order to look for short trades if not looking for Move up here and again just this that's just buying the Canadian dollar If you are looking to buy the US dollar then You'd be looking for You know move back down into this zone right here This one point three three two level one point three three four before looking at Buy trades Right, but right now. This is I like this level for a sell trade Just you know be aware that the you're buying a weaker currency of the two potentially so again that can obviously change With regards to what happens in the news this week, but those are pretty much your options And again, if prices do start to come down, this would be another level down here But just keep in mind that you've touched this level several times, you know once Twice three times, I guess in the weaker and level so the more level times level touches the weaker It becomes so just be aware of that if we do get any kind of shocks in the market as far as a dollar Interest rate cut then and you still want to be a buyer of the dollar and I still would be Then this would be the Area to buy so several different areas on the dollar CAD Moving on to the dollar New Zealand dollar, sorry, New Zealand dollar US dollar and into last week Prices came up into this very nice. So very nice. So I'm here again this would have been a bit tough to take because this was the Friday and Non-farm jobs did come out worse than expected. So a lot of traders ended up probably getting long here But they were wrong footed You know into taking the the buy trade Because even though non farms are terrible if you're looking at a macro economic in the bigger picture the US dollar is still really number one and you can start to see What's happened? And then the New Zealand dollar has had, you know, some negative sentiment So a tough trade to take from a sell trade perspective on the Friday But you started to see, you know, maybe some price action that you could have got involved in on a daily And there was definitely some on the on the intraday. So to the charts Nice supply zone there and then there was Set off as we have it now we're down back into this zone here where we've touched once twice So again, this could be a very nice opportunity to get long Many traders probably won't look to get long because they're seeing that, you know, massive, you know bearish candle Lot of supply in that candle. But don't be scared of, you know, bullish or really bearish price action into a level As prices can change, especially into this week I think investors and financial institutions are gonna have to decide what is gonna make the US dollar Become a bargain here. So if you want to be a buyer of the of this of the US dollar versus the New Zealand dollar at this exchange rate then in order for the dollar to be considered a bargain and for traders to Look to buy the US dollar, you'd be pressing short on your broker, right sell on your broker So this level would have to be considered a bargain Right all this price the 65 round number would have to be considered a bargain for the US dollar For prices to stop, you know continuing to go lower, right? This is what we call proof of value So what is gonna this week? What is gonna make investors consider this 65? 0.65 round number and actually bargain for the US dollar and Again, I don't think we've got anything really because of the The US interest rate cuts, but we also have the New Zealand GDP So if that New Zealand GDP does come out as As very very weak then this is gonna be a level that you should probably get short at But if the New Zealand dollar GDP comes out as expected Then this is looking like a very good, you know, what's it very good? But definitely a decent buyer, but you're buying against the strongest currency, which is the US dollar so Moving on to the Pound dollar and the pound dollar this week This for me ended up being a sell trade Which we got in at the moment up about a hundred and nine pips And I'll show you the trade as well so Here we go Again, this was into Friday last five days. We got short around here and Prices sold off Again dollar being as much as There was a bit of a negative sentiment on the US dollar Pound for me was is worse a lot of uncertainty over the pound because of Brexit and the conservative leadership contest Not doing, you know, the Boris Johnson is leading the polls and but until there is a leader chosen There's going to be still a lot of uncertainty around around Brexit and the power that you show in the UK economy. So I'm Going to the chart and I'll show you the setup and it was actually a what I call a capture pain relief set up And if you're not too sure about what capture pain relief Is I have a video here? Which is the supply and demand CPR capture pain relief location trade Have a couple of videos as well on the capture pain relief Set up which is here as well This was a textbook capture pain relief trade. So I'll go over a little bit of it now So lower time frame we had Here was the Friday last week Friday's Non-farm news and price fell to follow through right and a lot of traders would have been getting long Around here and basically into the beginning of you know The week or last week prices actually sold off. So what happens? Is that traders who went long suffer from something called loss aversion? They cancel their stop losses or remove their stop losses and they start to feel a lot of pain When prices come back to where they actually entered Here is the relief phase and if they went if they bought Here why they have to sell to exit adding to the supply and demand equation within this area, right? So this was This is a trade that I'm into the pound dollar. We entered at the one two seven three two level Which was on put seven three two, which is round this zone here Three two, so this was the this was the the entry stop just above the high and We're currently up 109 pips on this on this trade This is now a break-even trade and you can see where prices actually, you know ended up selling off So a nice trade a nice CPR zone trade on an intro day And Yeah, very very textbook trade and you can basically trade these trades if you know what you're looking for so Going back to the analysis daily we can take out that demand zone and This week if you're looking to buy the pound the short the dollar that would be really the Optimum area right now if not And you're looking at sell trades you'd probably be looking at prices to really kind of come back to this area here But I would preferably be looking for Prices to come above that level and then come down here because we have actually a daily CPR zone within this area fresh Supply so I may I may look to actually take profit probably from now and then Or reduce my position take it takes a more profit off that 109 pit move and then Just basically trail to stop and see what happens if we can get you know move further down But let's look at the overall bigger picture as well see if we've got any more kind of Marn zones in this area. I've got a bit of a level in fact Let's look at that now this whole area as well is demand, right? You've got massive area of demand right here So in fact, what I'll do is I'll add area there probably stuff. Yeah Well like that and when you've got a cluster of you know Demand zones right here just to clarify what you want to do is look for support and resistance zones within That cluster of supply and demand so a bit of a level right here Well, you've got resistance resistance support support resistance support so not only will you have Demand traders getting in around this level this one two four round number. You're also going to have Support resistance traders looking at that level as well. You do have a bit of a level here as well As you've touched it a few times so around this one two four one two five round number as well So that looks like a nice zone to potentially take some profits if this level doesn't hold as well If you're in this trade with me so decent looking trades if you're looking at If you're in if you're in short if you're in long these are the levels if you're trying to get in short Then you'd have to wait for really price to come back to this supply zone or a bit higher before looking at any short trades Moving on to the euro dollar Again euro dollar You have you know a level that's been touched once comes in, you know twice, I guess, which is still a decent area I didn't take off this supply zone as I thought this may Potentially hadn't taken out supply yet, right? So You can see pretty much what's happened and then pretty much it was the same setup as the pound CPR zone where prices kind of sold off On the an intro day and then there was an entry around here It wasn't as pronounced as the as the as the pound trade, which is reason why I didn't take this It's this short I think the pound was the better technical setup But you see in seeing a dollar strength overall come down into this demand zone. So what are we looking at? This week if you are looking to buy the euro and you think this euro is going to get stronger This is pretty much your your buy trade right now And if not, then you're looking at an area Below that demand zone, but just again keep in mind. We've touched this level, you know Once twice three times four times. So again could become a bit weak If you're looking at selling the dollar You'd be looking at price to come up back up into here, but again this level was touched a couple of times so you may want to wait for some sort of you know, I've a manipulation around that area or Prices to come up to this zone before looking to get short so manipulation and then Set off or up into this fresher area of supply And what we've got is probably around as one point one four would be the Best area to look for any kind of short trades its round number But I think the the dollar depending on what happens this week if there are any surprises then this could be a decent buy If not overall the dollar strength You know should still kick in getting price doesn't always reflect value So even if we do get a you know move further up I'm still going to be an overall buyer of the dollar as the euro is in a worse situation Economically and monetary policy wise than the US dollar So looking at the euro yen and euro yen this week It was risk-off Usually not a risk-off trader, but I was Convinced that the yen would strengthen over the euro and then it just happened that the There was an attack on the I mean And the oil tankers so this did work in my favor as well. So we ended up getting short around the One two seven That was the pound sorry the one two two eight four level so one two two eight Four which was about here that level there the decent trade to Downside so You're looking at probably any kind of buy trades if You see any kind of resolution to risk off Any kind of agreements or anything like that and then also as well you want to see euro strength and But as long as risk off continues in the market You're looking for probably pullbacks into areas and especially around this side this area here Or back up into you know this area here, and that's That's probably move this so now Up to around there We can move this Here as well for now So I think back up into that zone would be a decent area to look for some short trades and just above it Aussie dollar and Aussie dollar again with US dollar strength Price is pretty much sold off on the Friday and now we're back down into the lows of this area The Australian dollar has been weak for For several reasons. They are looking to cut interest rates plus again risk being off and they suffer from a risk-off environment So there was definitely no demand in this zone here for At that exchange rate, but now we've come down into the lower end of this demand zone There could be some profit taking going on here, you know, there could be some Some negative dollar news so this could be a decent place to potentially buy We also have a bit of a supply zone right there supply What I'm gonna do is I'm gonna end up moving this zone This zone down to here. So First area you want to look for short trades is a small area here But if not, then you've got this area here again, we've touched this supply zone, you know count that as once really There is a manipulation right here as well. So I would like to get Short around here again this 0.7 round number anywhere thereabouts. If not, then we're looking at the level a bit higher Check that across as well So for me, he's short trades all the way on this currency pair until something really changes drastically on the dollar But again, this could be a decent buy trade if you are looking To buy the Australian dollar or take advantage of some US dollar weakness And finally we have the Australian dollar Japanese yen Again, if you even if you don't trade this pair It's still a great pair to look at to assess what is happening with again risk and really risk on and risk off And obviously risk being off you can see price and what prices have done. So even though there was a demand zone here Risk as we know Will trump any kind of technical analysis that you may put right on a On a price chart because even though this has proven value in the past In the present is there going to be demand here right from a fundamental and sentiment perspective in it Obviously, isn't any demand for the Australian dollar is more demand for a risk off currency like the yen so moving on to your sorry Aussie yen and What I have to do is really kind of stretch back and I think I'm gonna take anything this might be an area I'll do a Supporting resistance first before adding the supply and demand Just to clarify There we go And you know what this whole area really is is an area of demand Here so I'm gonna Draw it here for now rather than covering this whole massive area, but just So there Is where you've got some demand you've got some longer term support and resistance within this area, so at the moment this could be a decent buy but Preferably I probably may not look to you know buy around here The prices would really have to kind of prove that there was any kind of demand that this zone So what you want to see is prices really kind of come up Yeah to prove that there's some sort of demand and then come back into this area before looking at any type of You know long trades around here if you're looking to get short and take advantage of any risk off sentiment Got nice supply zone right there and then you kind of supply into Price come up into these suppliers. I was to hire the better. Probably this 76 round number and above decent level You've also got decent level of support and resistance within that lower end of Supply and demand was as to the supply and demand equation if you're looking to potentially get short at that level Again risk being off if risk is on let the market prove that risk is on and then wait for prices to kind of come back into You know approving demand zone, so that's it for this week Thank you for watching. Please like subscribe share and if you have any comments or questions You know leave them in the description box below or you can email me at info at trading 180 comm Hope you have a great trading week and take care You