 This is the calm for the storm. It's the whole world versus a virus. Look, this is serious, you know. We must declare war on this virus. Welcome to World Versus Virus, a podcast from the World Economic Forum that aims to make sense of the COVID-19 outbreak. Every week we plan to bring you expert advice and analysis of the global crisis and what can be done to fix it. This is a time for prudence, not panic. Science, not stigma. Facts, not fear. It's Friday, March the 20th. I'm Robin Pomeroy, digital editor of the World Economic Forum. In this episode of World Versus Virus, we'll hear from a leading global economist on why the impact of COVID-19 is likely to be even worse than the 2008 financial crisis. During the global financial crisis, it took almost two years until the stock market was down 30%. Now it's taken less than a month. And an expert in cognitive behavioural therapy gives tips on how we can all protect our mental health from the risks posed by the outbreak. It is now about practicing, working on what I can control and not trying to control stuff that's out of my reach. But first, let's have a roundup of where things stand. Now I'm joined by Linda Lasina from the World Economic Forum's New York office, although she's at home, as am I, because we're all in some form of quarantine or another. Linda, you're going to look at the World Economic Forum's coverage of COVID-19 over the last week and pick out our top three stories. I should just say for the listeners, it's Thursday evening in Geneva afternoon in New York. So this may have moved on. It's moving so quickly this story. But give us the first of your top three for the week. Sure. The most important, I think, is that we reached some really key milestones as far as where the cases are. China reported Thursday that there's no new locally transmitted cases. And also, Italy's death rate has overtaken China's. And why that's important is that the epicenter of the disease has moved. It means that China's very aggressive efforts to suppress the disease have been successful. And it also gives other folks hope that there can be good changes with doing comprehensive efforts. And so the other thing that this leads to, of course, is that there could be transmission from outsiders and lead to perhaps another outbreak. As they wrote in the China Daily this week, a single spark can start a prairie fire. And so currently anybody who is coming in from outside the country is being asked to quarantine. But in China, they are sort of returning to some sort of normalcy, which is maybe a little bit heartening for the rest of us that there can be some hope. Right. This is the big test, isn't it? The whole world watched Wuhan in China right at the start. Then the attentions moved slightly to Europe and to North America. And now we're looking back on China because once again, they're showing us where we might be in a few weeks' time. Should we move on to your number two pick of our coverage? Yeah. I think the other really important thing this week is that there have been some really key strategy shifts from some countries. And a lot of this is after a special report that was done by the Imperial College COVID-19 response team. And it actually sparked changes in strategies by the UK and the US. Both became a little bit more aggressive this week in sort of the UK asking workers to stay home. They just closed schools. The US has been recommending that people avoid groups of 10 or less, also work from home. They're working to bridge equipment shortages. So the types of efforts have changed entirely. And the reason why this is important and why that report was so important is that it showed sort of different scenarios and the impact of, say, doing maybe nothing or the impact of sort of doing different suppression techniques. And what they found is that suppression will be a lot more powerful than mitigation. And suppression is the comprehensive package of measures that the who has been advocating for. Folks haven't been on the briefings. Like I have all week, those include things like social distancing, isolation, quarantine, testing. And so those are all really, really important. And so if all those measures are taken, then you'll be able to control the disease. So that report really helped change a lot of minds and is helping to sort of drive new strategies across the world. Yes. And I think we can take a listen to the Secretary General of the World Health Organization, who said this in a briefing earlier this week. You cannot fight a fire blindfolded. And we cannot stop this pandemic if we don't know who is infected. We have a simple message for all countries. Test, test, test. And that was the head of the World Health Organization just across the lake from me in Geneva, Dr. Tedros, saying test, test, test. And that seems to, well, I don't know whether it's from the who or from that Imperial College London study that you mentioned, Linda, something changed. The policy is there in a couple of very big countries. Well, one very big, one yours and one medium-sized, one mine, the United Kingdom. Okay. What's your third and final pick of the week story? Some good news. Some good news is that there have been some pretty promising and helpful developments about researchers from all around the world coming together for solutions, much needed solutions. One of them, and this is from the briefing yesterday that the who put together the World Health Organization. One is that there's the first vaccine trial was announced this week and that's pretty impressive. It's just 60 days after the genetic sequence was shared by China and that's an international effort. And then the other thing that's really impressive is that there's a thing called the solidarity trial that was announced. And that is a study that was organized by the World Health Organization where untested treatments can be compared with each other. And it's a way to sort of share data and to find out which treatments are the most effective. They're basically combining resources rather than having a lot of people do a lot of very small studies where the methodologies sort of don't really line up with each other and it's not very effective or efficient. And so this is really helpful. And again, it's just an opportunity to show how different countries are working together and pooling everyone's intellectual capital. And it can be really powerful. Still a solution is a long way off, but there was some interesting developments with that and I think that that's promising and heartening for everyone who might be quarantined in their home like myself or like you. Or anyone who might be listening to this pretty much, I would think. Okay, great, Linda. Thanks very much. Nouriel Rubini is one of the world's most prominent economists. He's a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business and chairman and chief executive officer of Rubini Macro Associates. He famously predicted the financial crisis in 2008 and says this will be far worse. He also has some sage advice for policymakers. He was speaking to my colleague, Max Hall. If we're thinking about the economic impact of this coronavirus, I must say that probably you have not seen something like this before. It looks very different and I'll give you a couple of examples. During the global financial crisis, the crisis was severe. We talked about two years from the time where you had the unraveling of the US housing market and mortgages until we got the collapse of Lehman and then things got much worse. This time around we've had economic activity like consumption, residential investment, retail sales and production and capital spending collapsing sharply in a matter of few weeks. During the global financial crisis it took almost two years until the stock market was down 30%. Now it's taken less than a month. Even if you compare this with the Great Depression, the Great Depression started in 1929 with a stock market crash but the depth of the Great Depression started only in 1932-33. Initially it was a stock market crash and then the mistaken response to it led it to become the Great Depression. This is just something we've not really seen before. People use this metaphor. Is this a V-shaped recession? Is it U-shaped? Is it L-shaped? Is it I-shaped? It's an I. It's like a stick dropping down very sharply. As for example, even some of the listed firms now say that in the second quarter of this year in the US economic activity may be falling at the annual rate of say 15% when even the White House advisor is saying the unemployment rate could sharply go up from the current 3.5% to more than 20%. It's a bit like as if an asteroid ate the earth and not just one economy or the other. Sometimes we have recession in the US but not in Asia or one in China but not in Europe. Right now pretty much every region in the world has gone into a free fall of economic activity. So it's unprecedented in the speed, in the depth and into the global rich. So this is something much more severe than we've seen before. That was economist Noriel Rubini talking to the World Economic Forum. We've all heard the risk the virus poses to our physical health. What's the impact on our mental health? My colleague Max Hall is here. Hi Max, how are you feeling? Hi Robin, I'm well. Thanks for asking. I'm at home with my wife and son. We're all in good spirits but I know that there are many others out there who are experiencing a lot of anxiety. And you've looked into anxiety and what have you learned? Earlier I got the chance to speak with Margaret Coran. She's a leading expert in cognitive behavioural therapy and helps children, adolescents and adults who find themselves suffering from negative thinking patterns to change their lives. I asked her about the toll the virus is taking on people's mental health. First of all it's anxiety and for those who have an underlying anxiety issue something like this just blows it out of the water because anxiety comes from a fear of being out of control and unable to tolerate the uncertainty of not knowing and we are absolutely in the height of that now. So that's rooted in where people are constantly ruminating about what it is they don't know and waiting for something bad normally to happen. So anxiety would be the number one thing that I'm seeing. I think as it goes on we could find more people suffering with depression because there's a kind of a hopelessness can come in. If I feel my life is not going as I thought it would various things are happening, possibly losing my job possibly losing a loved one there can creep in a real sense of hopelessness. I also asked if it reminded her of other psychological conditions. Well it's very like people who go to war and who are on front line will be dealing with this kind of thing all of the time which is constant uncertainty and that triggers a certain response in them all the time and they can end up with PTSD. Post-traumatic stress disorder. So for some people this would not be new if they've been on front line dealing with uncertainty. That is serious. Are there groups of people she's concerned about? Yes there are. Here's Margaret again. Well first of all those who've had underlying anxiety issues before this kicked off are very vulnerable at the moment. Vulnerability in terms of their mental health would be those who have other underlying mental health issues like people who have OCD in particular would be really finding it very very challenging at the moment. Elderly people who are feeling quite isolated anyway without this who possibly live on their own who are very lonely they are also a very vulnerable group and I think health professionals who are working very very long hours are at a higher increase of having burnout and the exhaustion that can go with that. Are you also worried about children, young adolescents and families? Most definitely and as I said if the child had an anxious disposition in the first place they have a lot of questions and we can be over flooded with news and again not necessarily the most reliable news and if you have a parent in a house who's quite anxious that isn't trying to rub off on the child in terms of they can pick up on that anxiety they can pick up on that uncertainty and children can create scenarios in their own head like they're very good as I said at making movies and so it's important that they would get some information without being overloaded with information and that there's a sense in a house of reasonable calm where there isn't a frantic search for knowledge and a constant updating on how many people in you know in Italy have died today and how many people in Switzerland have got the contract of the virus all of that in a household just adds to the levels of anxiety and especially for children. So Max, does she have any advice for parents? Well she said that children are very much looking for reassurance it's very good to give it but not to constantly do it as children need to learn how to reassure themselves as that's key for good resilience and mental health for the future Here's Margaret again it is giving them information without overloading the information having a realistic perspective on it not catastrophizing as there's quite a bit of in the media it's being reality based and answering the questions that they would have and then if it's a constant where they're constantly coming back to you looking for more and more reassurance you've got to remember what Mum said to you earlier what did Mum say to you earlier about that so that the child starts to learn to reassure itself So that's children and what's so advice for adults? Well there are a few things One of the big things is to keep your routines as best you can and I say that as best you can because parents are finding themselves two parents at home now who would normally have their children minded in a crash or whatever and all of a sudden they have to do their day job and mind the children I can identify with that That's difficult but I think that there's a curve here which at the beginning people haven't found how this is going to work itself out but it does and once you start to get into that routine and try and keep that routine as best you can so if you're used to getting up at 6.30 or whatever try and hold on to that She also said it was important for people to regulate their media consumption A recommended would be that you get an accurate source and possibly for 15 to 30 minutes a day So you go to that one source and find whatever it is you need to and minimize the ones that are catastrophizing which is a lot of the online stuff in terms of some of the not so evidence based sources but 15 to 30 minutes a day is enough to be able to find out what I need to know for this day because you know what can happen you see somebody says something on Twitter and then you're following that or you're following it on other outlets that there are and it just becomes obsessive then and it feeds into the obsessiveness that we can get from our anxious and we become then where we need to know and it's part of this needing to know that creates anxiety One of the strategies is about understanding what we do and what we don't have control over We live with uncertainty every day we try to minimize it and we try to control it but at the end of the day we are bigger than ourselves Thanks for listening to our first World Versus Virus podcast It's a new format for us and we expect it to evolve in the weeks ahead Please send any comments and suggestions to me Robin.Pomroy at WeForum that's W-E-F-O-R-U-M dot org and you can follow us at World Economic Forum on Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, Tiktok and YouTube and at W-E-F on Twitter and read all our coverage on weforum.org But let's end on an up note In Italy, which has become the epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak people are posting videos of how they're coping with life under lockdown and keeping up their spirits Maurizio Marchini, an opera singer serenaded his neighbors from his balcony in Florence and posted it online You can donate to his appeal to help the local response to the virus on his Facebook page But to sing us out, here he is from his balcony Maurizio Marchini