 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Well, hello. Good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access to Trader.com nightly wrap up show. Hope everybody is doing well. Yesterday there was no video. My daughter had an AAU game. So once there's no video, I kind of do it for Thursday nights. Usually Thursday nights are my day off just to kind of reclaim the brain. We'll get to that in a second. It is very important to kind of understand where we are in the dynamics of the market. So let's talk about it 24 hours ago, right? If you guys remember for, you know, for several days, especially off the weekend video, we talked about that there was, there was for us to rally, right? That two, three, four hundred point rally, we were going to need ideally, right? A washout, throw the baby out with the bath water. And the problem with that scenario was if you saw what happened on Monday and Tuesday, we never got that, right? Monday and Tuesday, they both had one had a little bit of a gap up. They got sold off the next day had a big gap up. That's sold off as well. Again, that's usually the typical fashion what happens in the sell-buy. Some of our American stocks will get stopped into supply. But yesterday was a scenario that we talked about, right? The washout and the problem with yesterday's washout, if you guys remember yesterday's news, Apple came out and they said, well, you know, we might delay or not, you know, don't get as crazy as possible for the next series of, I think it's the 14 of 14 plus, whatever it's called, of the next phones. And the market looked at that as, oh my God, that's terrible. That's horrible. That's the worst thing ever. And if you if you woke up at four o'clock in the morning, you saw some really extreme prices. The problem was by the time most traders woke up, right? By the time most traders turned on their computers, the washout already happened, right? The washout happened at four, five, six o'clock in the morning. So if you woke up any later than probably around 6.30, you already missed that washout. You already missed the throw the baby out with the with the bathwater scenario. And we started rallying, right? Despite, you know, despite that Apple news, we started rallying and that on the surface was Dean bullish, right? So the market closed at the highs of the day. And if you see yesterday's candle, this was the highest close in this whole formation. Now the question was, can we follow through, right? Because again, we all know, and we've been just kind of discussing this for a while, that when there's a dead cab bounce, we don't know how long that dead cab bounce is going to be. It could be a couple of minutes, it could be a couple of hours, hell, it could be a couple of days. And by the time we woke up this morning, right? By the time we woke up this morning, you know, I wanted to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt, just in case they did have a multi-day run. But the great thing about the market is it doesn't care what you want, right? It doesn't care what you need. It doesn't care what you desire, what to expect, or what you pray for overnight. It is what it is. It is the stock market. And you had some data come out and right from the word go, right? Right from the word go. And you can see here, right from the word go here, the market started selling off, right? Right from the word go here. Here's the, you know, here's the data, and we started selling off a little bit, getting a little bit of a bounce in between, and then the market opened up. And I, you know, if you guys have been kind of, for all you guys in the webinar, you kind of know this, we always talk about there's, the biggest window you have is in the morning, right? And I look at the morning as from 9.30 in the morning to about 1 o'clock, you know, 1 o'clock in the afternoon, Eastern time, that is your biggest window. That is when emotional buyers chase everything in sight. This is where, you know, the whole, is it Monday crowd that's so delusional, still in love with the stock market, don't worry, give it time. You know, they're still waking up, the emotions are riding, the hot stock of the day, go, go, go, go, go. It's super excited, right? And by around 1 o'clock, they're already so mentally depleted, so mentally defeated, they don't even want to even look into the stock, let alone chase something. And after that, the 1 o'clock, 2 o'clock channels, they start to contract. And this, you know, it kind of starts up again, up again the next day, right? It's kind of a rinse-repeats sort of thing. But the biggest channels are always off that opening range high, right? Either opening range high in a good market and opening range low in a bear market, right? Obviously, the biggest potential, the biggest average to range, but obviously, you're always going to have the biggest risk because, again, it's the biggest volatility. And this is why I always try to reiterate the point, especially the newer traders, if you can, maybe start your day after 10 o'clock when things get a little more structured, when things get a little more methodical and a little more predictable when the trend starts. But for experienced traders, we obviously have a game plan. We always obey our channels, we watch the channels, we wait for the channels to confirm. And hopefully, we are making the right read, technically, not emotionally. And that's exactly what happened today. And if you look at the day today, right? If you look at the day today, there was literally three pivots. And the reason why there was literally three pivots, I logged off basically within the first... I mean, I could have ended my day within the first 20 minutes. It was super-duper aggressive, right? And the reason why I logged off, I've always maintained something that most people don't talk about, most people don't acknowledge. But I do, right? I do. I think one of the reasons why you'll never hear me talk about or glorifying the trading world or the market or anything else, it's always good because what I went through my early years, right? It was the darkest times pretty much in my life, and I would never put that on anybody. So I know how important it is to kind of be a better friend to myself. And I've been always echoing this sentiment a lot, right? A lot. And if you've been watching these videos throughout the years, I've kind of been hinting about that for years and years and years. And I've always maintained, I say, look, you don't need to be in a funk, right? You don't need to be in a funk. Once in a while, be a better friend to yourself, right? Go get a massage. Check. Go get a nice lunch. Check. Be a better friend to yourself. Give yourself an opportunity to kind of debrief yourself, to kind of re-energize. And today was one of those perfect storms that, you know, after Tesla, and we'll get to the individual pivots in a second, was literally only three of them. But after Tesla, it was such an aggressive 20 minutes that I decided, you know what, I am going to be a better friend to myself today. I was feeling a little tired. I was feeling a little bit, what's the word I'm looking for? Not even tired, just a little bit mentally drained, right? It's just getting, we put so much effort, you know, us as traders, we put so much effort into concentrating on the task at hand on our individual process and all that stuff that comes with it. Sometimes we'll get burnt out, right? And every single trader knows exactly what I'm talking about. So today I took the opportunity after the first 20 minutes and Tesla was a monster and the video was solid. Coin was okay. I didn't trade coin. We took Tesla and the video. Those are the two plays, at least I did. And I was done within the first 20 minutes. And I said to myself, you know what? I know the majority of the day, that 90% of the day, the first average to range is going to be the biggest move. Let me take today as my mental day. So I took it upon myself. I logged off around, I think it was 10, 15, right? I could have been done literally in the first 20 minutes. Phenomenal moves this morning and that's what I did. I was a better friend to myself. I scheduled myself a massage, had a great lunch, took my dog to the park, just absolutely relaxed. Nobody was home. The kids were at school. My wife was, I mean, it was a perfect, perfect day. And now I am refreshed, right? I am refreshed. I'm going to have some dinner later. And tomorrow is Friday, my favorite day of the week because it is the most aggressive day of the week because of option expiration and directional bias. And this is something that we all need. So the message to the gallery is and all our friends on YouTube and Twitter and everywhere in between, always remember, it's cool, right? You want to make money, that's great. But you want to be around, right? You want to be mentally around for your kids. You want to be mentally and health-wise around for your kids or just live the quality of life. So sometimes if you're feeling a little bit closed in, right? Your brain is not functioning the way it should be. The most important part is, like I said, be a better friend to yourself and that's the most important part and then let everything else fall into place. So these were the pivots that we had overnight, right? The watch list for tonight. And the key is, I'm going to say, look, I want to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt after yesterday's close for the first hour. If not, we're going to start watching downside pivots. And as you can imagine, none of these pivots even came close because everything got destroyed. So we started putting in pivots, started watching these things one by one. And again, there's levels that I put for experienced traders. And then there's the levels that I put for everybody because again, not everybody is the same. Everybody has different account size, everybody has different risk tolerance and all that good stuff. So not every single pivot is for everybody. But for experienced traders, it does the trick pretty well because again, you already know what to expect. And the macro part of this day was, and this is kind of the most important part, again, does the market go straight down after technical damage? We say this every single day, of course not. The market will never go straight down. But again, even if the market does bounce and even if it's a one, two, three-day bounce, it always finds its way kind of back to the trend and that's exactly what we saw today. So the market could turn around and be like, well, it's the data, some more data that came out. It sucked and it was the work. You could say whatever you want. It's still the same thing we've been talking about for a long, long time. Sell bias, sell bias, sell bias. And if you look at today's session, it really engulfed everything that the bulls did yesterday, which they did a great job. They did an absolute great job. And again, if we would have rallied today above yesterday's highs, I would have been, not just me, traders would have been turned around and go, hey, remember yesterday when the bulls completely engulfed the Apple news and they took that negativity and turned it into a positive? Well, today was the fall through. It just never happened, right? And that's the whole point. You can't control what happens overnight. You can't control news. You can't control price action. But what you can control, and I say this every single day, you can control your game plan. And if it doesn't confirm, start looking at the other side of the channel. So it doesn't make a difference. Okay. I don't love Tesla because it's a greatest company in the world. I love Tesla because it's the greatest trading stock in the world, not investing stock in the world, trading stock, both long, both short. I don't love NVIDIA because it's the greatest chip company in the world. I love NVIDIA because it's a really great trader on both sides. And that's the whole point. That's the whole thesis of being a trader versus being an investor. You don't fall in love with the company. You fall in love with technical analysis and the ranges that it could possibly confirm. And that's where we are. So going into Friday, again, I mean, again, how hard of an aggressive bias can you possibly have to the upside? Again, can the market possibly bounce tomorrow? Look, it could bounce any day. That's the whole point. But the value, remember, we use the word value. I don't care if the market's up 1,000 points. There's still value to the downside of the market. So if there is value, it's always going to be to the downside of the market where you are below the 50-day moving average. And when you're above the 50-day moving average, the value, even on down days, the value is always going to be to the upside. And that's how I make my game plan. That's how I settle my opinion after the close. And I am ready for the next day. So going into tomorrow, big, big event coming up on Tesla. I'll get to the three pivots for the day. Here's something that you do know and you don't know. The event, I believe, is going to be after the close tomorrow. So would it shock me tomorrow if they tried to rally Tesla into the event? No, it doesn't shock me. It's definitely not going to shock me. The one thing that I do know, and maybe some of you guys first time watching this broadcast may not, there's been a lot of institutional money flow for the last two weeks on the Tesla event, the AI event. And it's not been to the upside. It's been to the downside. They were coming for, before yesterday, they were coming for the 270s and the 265s. Two days ago, they were coming for the November 244s. That's another 20 points down or so, 25 points down or so. So what I believe is going to happen, again, who the hell knows if it's going to play out that way. But what I think is going to happen is if they do try to rally it tomorrow, and that's a big if, zero interest to the upside, because I think what's going to happen is if they do try to gap it up on Monday, what I think is going to happen is based on what I'm seeing and price action coming today. And granted, it's probably definitely the most aggressive soul stock today. I believe they will sell the event. I do. Okay, I believe so. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. God bless. If you make money on the wrong side, God bless. But that's where my initial plan is. If they get stuffed into the event and they start rolling back over, and if they take down this bottom channel here, which it's very, very close. And who knows, maybe this bottom channel, maybe they just said, screw it. We don't need to rally this thing into the event. Maybe we just sell the stock off. Remember, Fridays are the most aggressive days, especially on key levels. So if Tesla starts taking down this level tomorrow, there's a shot. There's a legitimate shot. We can get a waterfall tomorrow, but I will give the bulls a little bit of a benefit of the doubt. Maybe we'll get a little bit of a dead cat bounce tomorrow and maybe plays that way out for Monday. We'll see. We'll see. So let's talk about today's pivots. Again, I was gone after 10-15. So Tesla, right? Tesla for experienced traders only. 280, 180, 280, if it builds below, can test the 277.50 initial move. The reason why I sell initial move, that was the 60-minute support. Not only did it take down the 277.50, it took down the bottom of the range from last week of 270 and stopped right at the bottom of the range here at 265. Now, again, if Tesla loses this bottom channel, guys, look how much room you have down. Maybe it gets there. Maybe it confirms there. Maybe it doesn't. We don't know. But again, like I say in every single video, don't we need to be at least prepared for it, right? And again, I don't care which way this thing goes as long as it goes technically. So I'm definitely watching the bottom of the channel here in the next couple of days. Maybe it confirms. Maybe it doesn't. But again, be prepared for it. Navidia, really. I mean, massive move. You had a $10, $12 move on Tesla. Navidia 22 has held three times daily. Again, that is definitely the line in the sand. I said there's a shot. It gets down to the 19 level. And there it's where it gone, right? Look at the bottom of the channel here, right? That's the Bollinger Band, right? Got down to the 19 and change level. Really nice move there on that. Coinbase, I did not take. Again, it's just some stocks that just a little bit too thin for me. $61.80 if it builds below can flush. Here was Coinbase. If you did take it, congratulations. Not a huge move, but it did go down. It did go down about $2 into the $60 area. If this thing starts confirming $59, you could get a move into the $56 level. And that's that as well. And basically, that's it. I go, if I could put this day in a bottle and be done in 20 minutes, I think all of us would sign up for that, right? And that's the whole point. And the most important part here is towards the end of the day. Just checking in and punches shot at $265, $266 today. And that's exactly where it went. So that's it, right? That's it. Tomorrow is the end of the week. We'll see how much possible the Bolls can put up a fight. If not, we still have plenty of downside room and a lot of names. Look at car marks, care marks. Again, if this thing confirms tomorrow, day two has more downside. Look at the stock Ali, right? Look at the stock Ali coming down out of a major, major trend. This thing looks lower. Tesla, we already talked about. Amazon, I'm definitely, definitely watching for the next several days. It's held the same level now four times. Eventually, maybe the fifth time is a charm. Maybe that happens tomorrow. We'll see. But the most important part is, guys, again, trade the market that you have, not the market that you want. I get it. And a lot of the new traders, you're all bye-bys by the dip. You obviously know that doesn't work or at least doesn't work in a market that's below the 50-day moving average. And again, the only thing you have two choices. You could either trade the market properly or don't trade at all. And the last thing you want to do is try to find, quote, unquote, breakouts in a bare cycle. They just don't work. They do work. They work for like 15 minutes at a time. So again, go with the trend and not against it. Guys, God bless. Hope everybody has a wonderful, wonderful Friday and a marvelous weekend. Stay safe. Stay relaxed. And like I said before, be a better friend to yourself. God bless.