 Welcome to TickMail Weekly Market Outlook for week commencing September 9th with me, Patrick Munley. In the US, the path to the September FOMC meeting and policy decision will be sparsely related with a handful of macroeconomic readings. This week we'll see August CPI arriving on Thursday. Market watchers estimate CPI will remain unchanged at 1.8% month over month. Core CPI is forecast to tick up a notch to 2.3% year over year. Retail sales are expected to be little changed with downside risk in the August reading following the strength that we saw in July. Friday's University of Michigan consumer sentiment metric for September will be closely watched for whether it reacts as to the escalation we've seen in trade tensions throughout August. From a technical perspective, the dollar index has seen a weekly key reversal pattern take place. We last week focused upon the potential for a significant double top driven predominantly by the divergence we were seeing in the momentum indicators. This played out and I now look for the dollar index to test down towards the 9770 area where we could expect to see a small recovery bounce. Probably back up towards this 9840-9850 zone which would be an area to potentially set new shorts to target the next leg of downside. Ultimately what I'm looking for is a corrective pattern to really test the ascending wedge support down towards 9650. Whilst we're looking at the dollar, let's take a quick look at gold. Gold held the resistance that we talked about last week up towards the 1560 level. Now pulling back to ultimately test back towards this 1480 area. Whilst this area supports, we can expect another leg of upside to move back up to test the 1530-1540 area where once again I already expect sellers to step in as we ultimately look for a test back down towards the 1440-1450 support zone. However if we do hold last week's loans around the 1500, there is the potential that we'll set another base here and make another push to the upside as we set a third push in a three drives pattern up towards the 1580 area. However from there I would still expect that we ultimately see more sustained correction testing down below the 1500 level. Over in Canada, markets will be fairly quiet over the coming week as campaigning ahead of the October 21st federal elections will likely heat up. On the macro calendar only housing starts for August and building permits for July are due out, both of which will be seen on Tuesday. From a technical perspective the Canadian dollar broke down, we took out the channel support at the 3250 area and traded down to a low of 3160. As this area holds on an initial test I would expect the potential for a retest of the underside of the upside channel that we were trading in up towards the 133 area. As this area caps I'm anticipating another leg of downside to ultimately test to 131. The focus for the duration of the week in the Eurozone will be Thursday's ECB meeting. It's expected to result in a significant stimulus to counter persistently soft inflation in the area. President Draghi's second to last meeting before relinquishing his role to Christine Lagarde faces multiple uncertainties. For instance Draghi convinced that all using tools must be readily deployed now or in possible stages. Or would he wish to leave the incoming President Lagarde to make some of the longer lived decisions herself or act now with her approval? The deposit rate is widely expected to be cut and consensus is somewhat divided though towards a 10 or 20 basis points move. Given the dominance of the market uncertainties ahead of the ECB macro data is likely to play a relatively subdued role with German updates on trade figures coming out Monday and France updates the jobs market data and industrial readings on Tuesday. From a technical perspective the Euro dollar recovered relatively swiftly this week up to test towards the 111 handle before seeing some offers and profit taking ahead of that level and we're now testing back towards the 110 handle. As 110 holds there's the potential to set a base for another leg of upside to initially challenge the descending trend line resistance up towards just above the 111 handle. Ultimately what I'd be looking for is a test of the 112 which would be an equidistant swing and three wave recovery pattern. However with Thursday's ECB meeting and potential volatility there is the potential that we actually retest the current base at 10930 and set a double bottom pattern for that next leg of upside. Any failure below the 10930 would be a bearish development and suggest a move down to test the 107 level. Whilst we're talking about the Eurozone let's check in and see where we are with the DAX. The DAX duly tested our target from last week up towards 12,200. As this area holds at the beginning of the week any pullbacks towards the prior range resistance area 11,800 should be supported and that should then set a base to ultimately retest the underside of the major ascending trend channel up towards 12,500. However a failure below the 11,800 handle will likely see prices trade back lower to 11,500. In the UK political developments will be closely eyed as another attempt to spring a snap general election is likely to fail in the UK Parliament on Monday given the lack of opposition support and the requirements for two-thirds support amongst MPs. From the macro data UK updates will include wages on Tuesday and before that Monday's update for industrial output and services activity and trade data. From a technical perspective the sterling pound recovered well this week and has traded above the 123 handle. However we did see a pullback late Friday and as the current highs at 123,50 hold then I'd be looking for a move back to test the support back towards 121,80 to 121,90. If buyers step in again there then this will be an opportunity to set longs for an ultimate test of the major descending trend line resistance up towards 126. However there is the potential given the political uncertainties that we see a much deeper pullback and potentially much larger inverse head and shoulders back in development with a test down towards 120,20 support zone. Once again watching for any bullish reversal patterns in this area to set long positions to challenge and retest this last week's highs and then up towards the trend line resistance in extension. Top tier data in Japan next week will be limited to the release of the second quarter GDP readings. Thursday we'll see core machine orders which is a key barometer for business capital expenditure then the BSI large manufacturing survey and Friday's industrial production data. From a technical perspective the dollar yen held the 105,50 support area and now looks poised to test the trend line resistance up towards 108. However a failure below 105,50 at any point this week would be a bearish development suggesting a move down to test the support at the 104,40 level. Data is pretty scant down under in Australia where release is comprised of Wednesday's Westpac consumer confidence followed by Thursday's consumer inflation expectation and home loan readings. From a technical perspective the Australian dollar has duly tested the equidistant swing target up at 68,50. As this area holds I would see the potential to retest back towards 67,50 as this area holds again then there's the potential that we actually will then form a decent base to put a challenge together of the major descending trend line resistance up towards the 69,60 area. However any failure below the 67,50 would be a bearish development and suggest another leg and new load to follow down towards the 66 handle. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing September 9th. As a note please do follow me this week as I will be issuing daily technical updates at the London Open throughout the week where you can get updates on the technical levels I'm watching on the market themes of interest. Thanks very much and I hope this helps.