 Hi and welcome to this week's episode of Off the Hill, the ANU's weekly look at what's been happening in this 2016 federal election campaign and it's the last week of the campaign and we're finally here. Joining me today as always I've got Dr. Andrew Hughes, political marketing expert and with me on my left I've got Maria Teflaga who is an expert on opposition parties and how they make policy, particularly in Australia. So we've got a lot to talk about today We're going to have a look back on the campaign that was and then hopefully give you a few tips about what to look for on Saturday night. Okay, let's start. I have been amazed this week to see how quickly after Brexit and we touched on Brexit last week how quickly the Liberals are pivoted to this message of stability afterwards. It was 24 hours and they've gone from jobs and growth, jobs and growth. No, uncertain times. I, to be honest, did not think voters in Australia would care about Brexit. My gut feel is that they've had polling overnight. You'd know more about this kind of thing. I reckon they've tested this over Friday night last week and they've found, okay, voters are worried. We need to talk about stability. It's almost comical. It's almost like character-chewer kind stuff. The extent to which they're emphasizing stability now. They've literally picked up this message of stay-on message. I don't know. I think they've been talking about stability for the entire campaign. If it's not, don't vote for minor parties, the greening of labour, don't change horses in midstream. I think this is just the sort of cherry on top for them. Reminds everyone about economic management and that we're a stable pair of hands. Don't trust the irresponsible labour party. That was so nuanced, though. Was it? Compared to what it is now, right? It's the last couple of days. I guess they've got nothing else to lose. There's no time for nuance. There's no time for nuance. And they're certainly not even feigning nuance, right? But why? That's the thing. We're in the blackout period, too. Now you can really let all the key words from the leaders come out like we saw today in the press club from Malcolm Turnbull. And how he really spoke hard on that Brexit message. For once in the campaign, we're certainly hearing fear from the coalition. We're doing positive all the way through. Remember, when in the blackout period, you can't run out on this. So what they have to do instead is get you to imagine the fear. And I think that's been a really key part of the last few days. I wouldn't have thought about that and you've enlightened me. Hang on, I'm having a heart attack these two points. We'll mark this moment. And it's gone. But this is the picture that they've tried to present on all of the soft news they've done this week, too, right? Kitchen cabinet, press club today. Look, and hats off to the coalition. I'm going to say that right now. For my money, they've run the best campaign out of all the parties this election. They really have. It's been strong all the way through. So what do you think are their specific strengths and weaknesses? Consistently positive. They haven't engaged Labor on Labor's areas of brand strengths, dare I say it as a marketer. They haven't really said anything to give Labor that traction they've been looking for, momentum they've been looking for. They haven't been sucked into a fight. Some figures I did yesterday looked at. They've done 14 negative ads this campaign, but 27 positive for the coalition. Whereas the Labor Party have done 27 positive and 21 negative. So it's, you know, that's a high number, right? That is huge. Weaknesses? Yeah, weaknesses for the coalition. I think they've missed the opportunity to put some killer blows on Labor in a couple key areas where they're strong on, for example, national security, for example, border control, for example, the economy. They could have gone really hard there. And I think in some ways they've given a bit more space on the far right there for those independent parties and minor parties that come in and sort of circle around those areas. So we'll see how that plays out of the election. Yeah, I think we will. I've been to the ALP and I have been very critical of the ALP throughout these, throughout these videos, I think, that they haven't, they haven't had a vision either. It's just been sort of small target, almost like Shorten's got the, you know, a web blanket and he's just going to throw it over everything as much as he possibly can, to the extent that there's been a positive vision. It's been a vague idea about Medicare because as I've explained, as long as voters think about health, as long as they think that's the most important issue, they think that the ALP is better place to govern in the area of health. Maria, you've published an opinion piece today that totally disagrees with me and I want you to justify it. Well, well, I would say that it's a matter of degrees. I would say that the Labour Party has run a bigger target campaign than we have seen for many a year. Was it Rudd, the ultimate big target though? No, I mean his whole election was on a campaign of, I'm everything you like about John Howard and also some new stuff on the side. Whereas, I mean, I think for Labour, you know, to go to a campaign advocating for changes to innovative gearing, to basically back in a carbon tax, to advocate spending on a much larger scale, you know, they're basically arguing for greater intervention by the state into people's lives. Labour values. Absolutely. And they've given us a lot more detail and taken a lot more risks than oppositions have in the last couple of elections. Again, you know, going to the polls with a policy to change negative gearing, a giant shibboleth and bugbear that has been in the too hard basket for 30 years, let's say that's a little bit brave. Is it just a populist reaction though, housing affordability concerns? No, because I think that negative gearing can be problematic across their own base as well as the opposition's base. Yeah, I think you're probably right. There's the aspiration factor there. You convinced me somewhat. Yes! I'm really harsh today. It's the last week of the campaign yourself. Yep, Andrew, what do you think about the ALP's campaign? Look, to support it from the word go, because I always thought that having started the campaign saying we've got 100 positive policies, why not then run a positive message after that saying, look, this is linked into our 100 positive policies, as it were. Is the bus positive? Maria, what do you think have been strengths and weaknesses of the ALP campaign? Well, I think for the ALP, it's reminding everyone about why they may have ever voted Labour in the past. So it's a return to brand to use Andrew's language. Yes, yes. This day is epic in my book. Epic! But yeah, it's reminding everyone of Labour values, putting people first, spending measures, that's what they do best. The weaknesses? Who trust them to add it all up. I think they're struggled on the economic credibility front, and I think that's the problem for Labour. But they always do. That's an eternal Labour problem. That is their eternal problem. Let's talk about costings. I know none of us probably want to. Listeners probably don't really want us to, but it's really important, right? Both parties have released their costings in the last week. They've just thrown them out while everyone's looking somewhere else. I've got two questions for both of you. Why do they do it? And when they do it, why do they make them so precise? It's trying to prove that they're good at economic management. They're trying to say, look, we've gone to that level of degree. Of course it doesn't. Because who's that involved with economic policy in the first place? Economists. Or we want. Yeah, but they are. But true. Yes, hats off to the economists in the room. Is there any? There's none. No, they're not here at the moment. They're just looking at themselves. But looking at how they've done their costings, you think, okay, this should be a key part of your strength, right? Your brand strength, if you're the coalition, is, hey, we do the economy. That's what we do. But all they've done here is the minimum necessary. That's it. And Malcolm Turnbull comes out today and it's on Kitchen Cabinet for those people who haven't seen it yet. Where he talks about the fact he regrets how he put all everything on the table when it came to tax reform. Because it made him seem like he wasn't organised in control. It's like going, oh, hang on. I can't do it. I'm just the Prime Minister. You guys decide what it should be. And they had to get that credibility back somehow. And Labour missed that chance to really go after them on that. And the costings certainly haven't helped. So why so precise? Yeah. Well, I mean, it raises important implications. Like, what's the point of having policy debates at all? But, you know, why so precise? Well, I mean, as I understand it, we've sort of gotten into it. We'd like historically gotten into a situation where we predict to point figures, whereas, you know, in other countries, they predict within ranges. And so we have silly debates about whether or not four castings are out by what, in most places, is considered the margin of error. Yeah. So there is a really important discussion to be had there. Like, you know, what are we actually trying to achieve with costings? And maybe we could have a better, more sophisticated debate if we didn't focus on exactly how wrong is this forecast going to be. That would, I mean, a really comprehensive debate would also have to include, you know, the fundamentals of economic modeling. Yeah. And the assumption standard. Yeah. It's an incredibly, I mean, it's a social science. It's not a hard science. Yeah. And look across the Tasman and John Key earlier this year, sorry, before the last election, he announced his budget and put up for a discussion. So before it being put up in the parliament, he said, this is up for discussion how we should run the country. He's done some cool things. That's right. I love that. My final thoughts. Two seats to watch. Yeah. Lindsay and Inamonero. They're my seats I put down. Lindsay is... You haven't gone, that's completely safe. I know. The ultimate bellwether in the ultimate Western Sydney seat. Yeah. But what should we look for? Come on. Bellwether really, I think Peter Handy is in trouble. Yeah. I really think the bellwether status has gone. And look, if you're looking for a prediction, I'm happy to give one, Turnbull Just. Why not? But the more interesting part of the campaign, I think, on Saturday Night, is how the Senate's going to play out. We've all talked about the Xenophon effect. Finally, we see how people have voted on that exact factor, whether he can get up in the lower house, whether he can get up in the Senate. I think all that talk ends come Saturday Night when you start to see the results come through. We're going to see some wacky Senate. We are. We are. Chappers. South Australia. What's going to happen in South Australia with the Xenophon effect? The reality is, is that several seats are in trouble for both the government and Mayo, for example, for the government, Adelaide for Labor. And I don't think anyone really knows how the preference flows are going to work from that. So that'll be fine. In the lower house. In the lower house. If we see Xenophon candidates in the lower house. What's going to happen? I think we should look for results in Batman. See if David Feeney leaves the seats to the Greens. Melbourne Ports is always really interesting. The ALP's got a sort of tenuous hold on that. That's a good name for a seat. For I'm from, the Outer East. La Trobe, Bruce, always interesting. We don't give these seats much attention nationally. But they can, they can, you know, they can win government. So be looking in the outskirts of Victoria. Outskirts of Melbourne is my prediction. Thanks again for watching. We're going to return on Monday for hopefully a fairly brief wrap up of the election results. So that might depend on what exactly happens on Saturday night. Keep posted to our Twitter feed, our Facebook and the website to find out exact details of that. And we'll see you then.