 And thank you for joining us. My name is Mina Al-Araibi. I'm the Editor-in-Chief of the National, based here in Abu Dhabi. And I'm delighted that His Excellency Khaldun al-Ambarak, Chairman of the Executive Affairs Authority and Group Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of Mubadila, is here with me. So I got the joy of having half an hour to grill you. So good luck in the next half an hour. But really I wanted to start from looking back at 2022. We meet here in Abu Dhabi in December. It's been quite a turbulent year. Of course, on the minds of many people is the war in Ukraine as we just heard from the Foreign Minister of Ukraine, but also economic turbulence. We've seen tech companies go up and down. We've seen concerns about an energy crisis, about a food crisis, food security crisis. So it's been a turbulent year. But it's also been the year that many countries have come out from the COVID-19 pandemic or at least the key measurements there. So Your Excellency, I want to start by asking you about looking back at 2022. How do you see this year? Well, first of all, Mina, it's a pleasure speaking to you today, and please call me Khaldun. Second, let me take the opportunity to welcome everyone to Abu Dhabi. It's a pleasure to have this distinguished group of people from all over the world to be here for this distinguished conference. And of course, thank you so much for your kind invitation. It's a pleasure to be here today. Now, answering your question. It's been quite a remarkable period if you go back to January 2020. Really, when I look at January 2020 to where we are today, these two years, well, three years almost now, have been exceptional in the sense it's been a period, short period on a relative basis, with no less than three, arguably two for sure, but maybe three Black Swan events. Three Black Swan events happening in a concentrated period of time, shaking the entire globe from, there's not a place in the world, there's not a country in the world, there's not a people in the world, there's not been impacted dramatically by the events of the last two and a half to three years. And that I think is something we have to start with because everything we talk about on an ongoing forward basis, we have to bear in mind, we've just been dealt, you know, COVID, I think in itself, the pandemic and the impact that that's had on everyone, followed by what I would categorize in my view as a second Black Swan event, which is a series of economic measures by governments around the world that are unprecedented in nature. And that I will define as a Black Swan event, maybe a White Swan, but it's a Swan, depending on where you look at it. That then followed with the Russian-Ukraine war, and then the aftermath, which is I would say the fourth, because the war itself is this Black Swan event, but also again, the measures, the sanctions, and then the resulting geopolitical seismic shift that has happened following that is another arguably event in itself. So all of this is happening at the same time. All of this is happening at the same time. And for countries like ourselves here in the UAE, for institutions like the investment institution that I represent, we've had to navigate through these waters over the last two to three years. From one perspective, I would say weathering the storm or storms. From another perspective, preparing yourself for the future and this new future, because all these events I've described have implications for the future that are irreversible, in my opinion. So when you say that preparation, so to speak, what lessons have you learned and do you think we've learned institutionally in different parts of the world from these Black Swan events, but particularly COVID-19? So if we're gonna talk about COVID-19 to be specific, in terms of lessons learned, I would say there is good and bad lessons. The bad lesson is if you remember that first period, I would say phase one of COVID-19, which is the January, February, 2020 to probably June, July of 2020, that's six to seven month period. That for me was the bad lesson, because here the entire principle of globalization, the entire principle of collaboration and working together was by many countries and many companies and many people thrown to the trash. And countries went into self-preservation mode and really focusing purely on solving their internal problem at the cost of others. And you saw that in many things. You saw that in how PPEs and simple things as masks were being herded. You saw that in terms of the lack of collaboration in the early stages, cut-offs, so a lot of events in that space really, I think are examples of what not to do. In retrospect, you look back now, especially now going into the good lessons. The good lessons is this challenge started to get resolved in a constructive way once the world started collaborating, once the world started collaborating on vaccines, once the world started collaboration on measures, on manufacturing, on medical supplies, that's how the world eventually got itself out of the pandemic and to the stage we're in today. It's through actually collaboration, which again begs the question on globalization, because what we are dealing with right now, particularly with the other events in the world today, is a move away from globalization. And I think that has obviously a lot of implications going forward. That point about globalization, because there are concerns that the global order as we knew it is behind us now and we're emerging into a new global order, be it Bretton Woods, be it the collaboration or at least agreements at the UN Security Council, be it even trade, I mean the WTO today, there's question marks whether it can continue, especially with the US-China tensions that continue. And so, first of all, my first question is, is globalization dead? Is it still there? I don't know if it's dead, but it's certainly highly challenged and facing probably one of its biggest challenges ever. I think the form of globalization that we've seen over the last 10 to 20 years is probably behind us. Now, are we moving into something completely different? I don't know the answer to that, but I do think that I think there's a new form of globalization that's emerging that is different than the form we've seen over the last 10 to 20 years. And this new form is shaping itself along the lines of the China-US divide, along the lines of Russian sanctions, along the lines of the rise of India. So many, the movement of the supply change or the reconstruction of supply chains moving from a complete open market of supply chains to now a model of a domesticated supply change as a focus combined with trusted supply chain circles. So I think that's what's emerging and probably the form of globalization is more along the lines of this, talking in economic terms, along the lines of this economic value chain trusted partnership. That's, and you're seeing these circles of partnership build up now. Now, how sustainable that is, how that's gonna work out, how it's gonna shape, I think it's happening as we go. But I believe, personally, as the UAE has always been a country that's built on trade, built on open trade, east, west, north, south. We are supporters of globalization. We're supporters of open trade. And we've reaped the benefit of it over the last 50 years of the creation of this country. And that, I think, allows us to operate the way we operate today. If you look at the UAE today, our trade partnerships with Asia are very strong, from China to Japan to Korea to India, Southeast Asia. And then you go to Africa. We are the largest trade partners of Africa. You move into the Middle East, pretty much every Middle East country, we have a strong trade relationship. And then you go into Europe, the United Kingdom, the United States. And I think the same. So you see a very similar trade-oriented direction that the UAE has pursued. And I believe, regardless how this question gets answered and how this plays out in the 10, 20 years ahead, I think for us in the UAE and for our investment institutions, we will, I think, do well in that world because we can. And we will continue to speak east, west, north, south with a very, I would say, constructive approach. But that approach and those relationships for the UAE are born out of that global system that now, as you say, is challenged. So as you do your strategic planning, as you're looking forward and thinking about, you know, as Mubadela, for example, looks and has incredible ties in different parts of the world and investments, do you now pause longer and think you can't take for granted those global relationships and systems that perhaps we took for granted 10, 15 years ago? And how do you then plan accordingly? So again, from a pure investment lens, and as I look from my chair at Mubadela as an investor, as a global investor, we follow growth. We follow growth patterns. We follow long-term, sustainable return. That's kind of what drives us. And that applies, by the way, both in terms of geography and sectors. This is how we look at the future. We don't, we are, you know, I'd like to use this word probably agnostic in terms of where and how our track record has been based on investing in the right sectors at the right time and in the right geographies. And in doing so, we were able to achieve and have been achieving consistently sustainable, attractive returns for our shareholder. Going forward, we will continue to do so. So when I look at growth as an example on an ongoing forward basis, okay, you look at Europe as an example. I think it's a challenge picture when you look at, when you put the description I've just described in terms of growth, in terms of returns, in terms of where I see economic headwinds, I think when you look at Europe, that's a challenge picture. On the flip side, you look at India as an example. India is a country that is going to be the largest country by population, probably 2024 next, in the next one to two years. So a huge population, 1.3 to 1.4 billion people. The largest growing middle class in the world, by size, one of the largest growing economies. I think 6, 7, 8% GDP growth on an economy that size, closer to the 8%, if I'm not mistaken. So again, you have a GDP growth trajectory, you have a rising population, you have a rising middle class. I think there you can see, again, a picture coming back to my growth argument, where you see growth, and you see growth, and you see sustainable growth given the macro outlook into a country like India. So then you ask yourself, okay, what sectors? And here, again, I'm talking from a macro sense, there are sectors that we all know today, our sectors, you know, given the world direction, is an area that you will see substantial growth in. So let's take a broad theme, energy transition. So that entire theme of energy transition is a theme that, of course, we're focusing on investing in because we know the future is gonna be about energy transition and about investing within that value chain of energy transition, and that applies to everything from investing in production, manufacturing, materials, all the way to the kilowatt produced from solar wind or hydrogen, et cetera. So I think that is a broad theme that I would say is an area of focus to us. Technology is very important. Technology, again, is at the forefront of everything. And be it the energy transition, be it the healthcare side of it, the biotech side of it, the consumer side of it, while it's gonna be challenged, I think in terms of valuations, particularly in North America, Europe, but also China, as we speak, it's being challenged, it doesn't change the long-term relative importance and criticality of that sector, and as a long-term investor is an area I assure you we're focusing a lot on. So I wanted to ask you about industries, industries to focus on. So you've mentioned energy transition, and there's many questions about, of course, the UAE being one of the leading countries when it comes to hydrocarbons, but also thinking about that transition from Mazdar, which is going through its own transition at the moment, to hosting of COP28 in 2023. So when you think about industries, but also policies, when it comes to the energy transition, and we're here at the World Policy Conference, if you're giving advice to policymakers, how do they calibrate that energy transition that is inevitable now, but also how does that fit into the planning for COP28? So I think I will answer you by starting with context. So from a UAE perspective, energy has always been the backbone of our economy. Again, we're blessed in terms of the natural resources we have in the UAE, oil and natural gas, and throughout the 50 years that's been an important component of our economy and of our GDP. But throughout that period, the policy question and the policy vision that the UAE has always had consistently is a policy of diversification from one aspect, and a policy of maintaining leadership within the energy space. And in doing so, when we talk about energy transition, while this is the subject of the day and any platform you talk about today, we've been talking about energy transition for almost 16 years. When you look at where we are today as one of the largest oil producers in the world, one of the largest gas producers in the world, yet already almost 25% of our power needs in the UAE are met through renewables already. That didn't happen over the last two years. That's happened over the last 16 years of consistent investment in a time where I remember 16 years ago when we started investing in solar. People were saying, why is the UAE investing in solar? You have oil, you have gas, why are you investing in solar? Or even 13 years ago when the UAE decided we're gonna build nuclear power plants, safe nuclear power plants. Why are you investing in nuclear power plants? You have plenty of gas, plenty of oil. I think that shows you, I think there was a level of maturity and clear long-term view in terms of where the energy is going from policy makers in the UAE and the leadership in the UAE. That's led to decisions 14, 16 years ago that we are seeing today the benefits of. We have today four and a half gigawatts of nuclear power in the grid today. Safe nuclear power, supplying power throughout the grid in the UAE. We have two of the three largest solar plants in the world, power plants, generating the lowest cost per kilowatt in the world of solar energy. This is not, I'm not talking to you in theory or in future plans, I'm talking to you about actual infrastructure operating in the ground today and producing this power. So I think that story of investing in energy, investing in new energy and the energy transition is a long story for us in the UAE and it's showing its fruits and where we are today is where we would want to be. I think in the sense of having that balanced portfolio of energy production between renewable and conventional in a way that I think no other, not many countries around the world has, but more importantly, no other major oil and gas producer has. And as we enter, sorry to long answer, and as we enter now the year where the UAE will be hosting the COP, I think we have a good story. We have a great story in my opinion in the sense that it's the story of an energy producer that has made the transition or is making the transition with actual historic evidence of that and a clear strategy when we say we're gonna do something over the next 10 to 20 years, I think the track record of the UAE shows that it actually delivers on that. And I think that will be a very important theme as part of COP. Now, I want to follow on from that and the point of investment because as a sovereign wealth investor there are certain responsibilities to ensure development, growth, but also now these new developments, new when I say 10, 15 years thinking about climate transition or climate action, energy transition, but at a time that now we're entering economic turbulence in 2023. I mean, all the outlooks be at the IMF, be it the World Bank and talking about globally we're going to enter a time turbulence. So can you still feel as assured that that long-term vision strategic planning will be okay at a time when we have this economic turbulence and there's a fear that financing globally on this energy transition so forth will pull back because of fears. So here I think there's an important saying. Patience is a virtue. I think what is required is... and I'm going to contradict myself so forgive me but I will elaborate as I go with my answer. It requires patience but also speed-like execution. And these two have to happen at the same time. And what do I mean by that? So a couple of years ago there was a lot of pressure and just using that example on energy transition because I think it's probably the best way to explain my argument here. So over the last five to ten years there may be more five to eight years as this energy and climate challenge has really come to the forefront a lot of pressure was put on policymakers, on governments and on companies, oil and gas producers around the world. That resulted in a stress to the system. That stress resulted in significant under-investment in the oil and gas sector and the energy sector as a whole globally. That then resulted into an under-supply. So inevitably there was going to be a wall you're going to hit because it assumed wrongfully in my opinion that there was going to be you're going to stop investing in this space you're going to invest heavily in the renewables and new energy space and energy transition space and it's all going to happen at the same time and it will be smooth and there will not be extreme volatilities. The reality is that's not the case. Where you need execution speed is on new technologies on the future of energy transition when it comes to wind, energy, sorry, solar, hydrogen, ammonia, there's so many. That requires speed of execution but it also requires patience. It also requires patience. And then to be able to measure that with continuing to invest in a responsible way in existing energy demands and supplies needed to meet these demands in the conventional space. Without doing so, it's going to create massive disruptions and massive volatility and economic distress. So this is where I feel it's important to achieve that balance between patience, perseverance but also I think execution and light speed execution in a period of time that is more structured that will help I think the world economies balance better some of the challenges that lie ahead. Now part of the challenges are also these changes in technology landscape. Partly because there's the speed of technological change that regulations, sometimes government is not fast enough to keep up with but also there's the concern if we go back to globalization question and split some people have talked about the coupling between the US and China. There's been pressure on countries in different parts of the world to make a choice. Geopolitically yes but I want to talk about also the technologies. How do countries like the UAE, mid-sized countries but also investors think about that as technology is speeding along there's the geopolitics that might pull back. So here I'd like from my perspective always to look at it agnostic. Invest in the best technology and invest in the areas where you have the right regulatory environment the right legal environment the right macro environment that is conducive for growth. That's what drives our decision it's not about the geopolitics or X or Y it should be in that sense. When you look at for instance the PV solar market as an example 80% of the manufacturing is in China. That's the reality. Today 80% of the supply is coming from China. And that applies to many other components within the energy transition stage if you look at it anodes and various components I can name you five or six important components that are critical aspects of the energy transition each one of them China manufacturers between 50% to 80% of global supply. So I think one has to be clearly balanced and how you look at the future and how do you get to that future in the way that is most sustainable and most economically viable. I go back from our sense we've been investing in everywhere on the world for decades and we tend to invest where it is the right place for that right investment for the right return for us and we will continue to pursue that strategy. Now the other change that we witnessed during COVID-19 was of course our over reliance on connectivity technology everything from working from home children being educated at home but also public health in general. So technology and changes in the technology landscape are impacting governance and so forth. How do you view the changes technological landscape what are you excited about? Well I'm excited about everything I think one of the positives of COVID is it's super charged our transition on the technology side so you look at a simple technology like the virtual zoom calls by the way they all existed pre-COVID just nobody used them or used them very scarcely but this is a tremendous technology platform that you know all of us who've been dealing with this over the last couple of years will tell you oh wow why was I traveling all over the world for meetings that I could have done at home with my computer and without you know the need to so I think I look at the use of technology and how it makes our lives easier makes operating doing business easier as a tremendous asset and I think we've learned to it's one of the great things we've learned to pivot fast accept these technologies and actually use them now I don't think we have to be extreme we need it to be extreme during COVID because of the various restrictions but I think there needs to be a healthy balance between the use of technology and because nothing at the end of the day replaces what we have here today which is the ability to to speak converse see the body language have the interface I am you know personally back to my travel mode in 2019 and as much as I would have liked and hoped to believe that through technology and virtual communication I will not need to travel like I used to before the reality is the answer is no nothing replaces this direct connectivity the need to actually look someone in the eye and really converse and that applies to business politics, academia, you name it conferences you've all attended conferences frankly on a virtual note I think none of us want to go back to those days attending a conference virtually now, having said that technology is changing everything and now even the way we work the ability for us to work and I see it with our workforce and Mubadela all over the world right now we have offices throughout the world the ability to now mix between technology and that face to face and creating this new hybrid model whatever it is and it's an evolving model is I think good because what's good in it is it provides a better balance in terms of quality of life and that is critical that balance between work and life is so important because we've seen it now we've learned through COVID that by the way productivity hasn't changed as a matter of fact I found that productivity got more enhanced when we were able to provide our employees a better work-life balance so I think technology will play a big part in this going forward and employers will have to evolve we cannot go back to pre-2020 that's finished there's something new and we're all learning it and what fits in Abu Dhabi is different than what fits in Paris what fits in Paris won't fit in Tokyo or in Beijing etc there's going to be short answer technology is crucial it's going to be great I love most aspects of it and it's about us investing in it using it and then having the courage to test it okay and my very final question for you we started by looking back at 2020 to 2022 now as you look forward to 2023 what do you see as the greatest opportunity we have in 2023 so listen I'll answer you in a different way when we look at the future we don't look at it in one year I think as an investor that takes a long-term horizon and being a sovereign investor that gives us an edge in that we can afford to think and we are afforded to think in the 5 to 10 year horizon and that changes your decision making when you're looking at a 5 to 10 year horizon versus looking at a 1 year horizon so if I'm looking at a 1 year horizon yes 23 is going to be tough no matter how you cut it okay there's some places it's going to be easier than other but I think there's more headwinds than tailwinds in most places around the world for 2023 so it will be a tough year now from my lens it doesn't really change because we'll weather 23 the decisions we do in 22 this quarter and 23 I look at it in the terms of next 5 to 10 years are we making the right investment decisions in the right spaces in the right sectors at the right valuations looking at a 5 to 10 year horizon from that sense 23 will be a tremendous opportunity so I'm not going to look at it in the negative sense I look at it really actually in the positive sense because I think it's a time where there's going to be big adjustments on valuations there's going to be recessionary pressures in many places around the world some countries will go into recessions some economies will go into recessions others will go into strong recessions some into light recessions and others will weather through so it's going to be a tough year I anticipate that but I see that in the lens of opportunity and in that sense I think 23 will be a very important year for us as Mubadela if we make the right decisions I think over 5 to 10 years these decisions will be very creative for us Well thank you very much Haldun we closed the session with thinking about patience but also speed and agility knowing that 2023 will be bumpy to say the least but also looking at the 5 to 10 year horizon some exciting opportunities but also following where we see growth and as you said the world's landscape is changing according to that growth both in industry and in countries Thank you very much for your time and your attention and please thank my delightful speaker Thank you very much