 Okay folks, welcome to the Contrarian Traders Market Wrap podcast. The full audio video version of us reviewing the charts is posted in the members area. For those who aren't current members, I don't know why, but if you'd like to become a member, sign up for that 14 day free trial offer. So what we do on this podcast is we review the health of the overall markets. How are the markets trading today? What is our bias? Is it to the upside or is it to the downside? We'll segment out the bond market first and we'll talk about equity markets. Then we're going to talk about our positions and then we'll leave off with the stocks that we're watching for the new trading day. So let's get to it. Let's kick things off first with the after-hours price action of Light Sweet Crude. We saw an inventory drawdown and the knee-jerk reaction was that they sold crude. We're looking at the Light Sweet Crude price at current. Last tick was $41.40. The barrel, we closed out at $41.62. So not that much of a, as a matter of fact, we just went positive in the after-hours session. Now let's kick things off first with the after-hours price action of Light Sweet Crude. We had crude inventories announced after-hours and there was a build-in crude inventories. The knee-jerk reaction, as one might would expect, is that you would see crude prices sell off and they have. However, we are rallying back and rallying back strong. It was a good day for the crude market. I think that we're probably going to shrug this report off, given the current price action and the daily close today. Energy was strong. We're going to go over that chart in a moment. But first, let's go to the bond market because that is the tail that wags the stock market dog. Let's kick things off with the iShares TLT, the 20-year bond ETF. Now as you can see here, we closed out the day strong. We gapped up after seeing a bit of a head fake last night. Remember we spoke about this? We had a hammer formation, a bearish hammer formation. I was a bit worried about a continuation move lower. However, it was a bit suspect and today we gapped up higher. Did we break out? No, not quite yet, but we're right there. We're right at resistance on the TLT. What does that mean? If you have the TLT rallying, it means that yields are pulling back some and that will bode well for technology shares. Moving on to the VIX. This is a daily chart. These are all going to be daily charts unless otherwise daily chart VIX was up today, not shockingly because the S&P 500 was down slightly. We were up stronger early on. We pulled back off the highs. They tried to recapture, let's call it 2510 on the VIX. It was rejected. However, we did hold this ever critical 2250 on the VIX and we eked out a gain. If we do begin to break out further on the indexes, the equity indexes, I do believe that we are going to head down to bare minimum 20 spot 28 to 1999 on the VIX. It's at that point where we say, okay, we're two from here. But until then, unless we break out on the VIX and break down on the S&P 500, well then the path of least resistance remains stronger for the equity market moving on to the chips. Now the chips also gave us a head fake today or I should say yesterday. Look at this chart where we were down yesterday. It gave us the inclination or implied that we were going to make lower lows. However, today it was negated. No new daily high and inside day, no new high, no new low. But remember, we spoke about this last night where the price action was negative. However, the stochastics were breaking out. Let's go to our annotated view for the tips. Why is this important? It's important because the tips are a measure of inflation. Now here you can see on the annotated view, I saved the arrow to remind us to memorialize what we were seeing last night. And sure enough, the stokes won the day. Love the stokes. RSI on the verge of a breakout. We're not there yet. However, if we begin to see the RSI breakout in advance of a breakout on price, we're going to be looking at gold, silver, the miners, anything that you could drop on your foot is probably going to go up because this is a measure of inflation. Not many people pay attention to it that aren't institutional traders, but we do the dollar. The dollar was weak yet again today. This is the third consecutive down day. I think that ultimately we're going to get a lot weaker. Euro was strong this morning. We did close off the lows of the day, but I am not getting the warm and fuzzies. Take note of RSI potentially, just potentially attempting to put in a higher low, same deal here with stokes, but we don't know yet. From our perspective, let's go to the annotated view. This is the dollar bull ETF. From our perspective, all we're doing is putting in another lower high and probable lower low. Yes, we have a lot of support below here. Does it hold? Not quite sure. They may defend it. Volume to the downside dropped off considerably today. So the 2486 mark, the 2480, very critical for the dollar bull ETF. If it breaks, you got to be long of gold folks. You got to be long of silver commodities, the Dow transports, continuation breakout today, a bullish reversal bar. What does that mean? Well, at the open, they took the transports down. They were weak. However, we rallied to close back at the highs of the day. Very bullish price action. This implies that in all probability, we are going to make new higher highs. Volume dropped off a bit to below average. Stochastics looking very strong. I think that while we make it another push higher on the Dow transports, these stochastics are very extended at around 81.68. We're due for a pullback. So if you're long of the transports and they gap up higher, let's consider thinking about making some profits real here. And then we can always buy back in on a pullback. So right now, 12,500 is the next price target. It's a big fat round number. We closed out at 12,434, spot 97. At all probability, 12,005 is where we're going on the Dow transports. The Dow Jones industrial average closed out today, 29,783 spot 35 down on the day. However, we filled the gap at 29,500. We rallied off of that level. So it's good to see that we saw some buyers come in at 29,500. Now what's happening here or what happened here, I should say, on the stochastics isn't what in all probability is going to happen on the Dow transports. We became overbought. We rallied to a high on the 9th of November on the Dow Jones to stokes at around 86. Then we saw an orderly pullback then on the 13th, being Friday, we gapped up higher. So I think that while we have more room to go here to the upside, probably up to the 30,000 mark on the Dow Jones, because we have to hit it, traders are OCD, you know, 30,000 is getting the hit. How much further we go beyond that level, not quite sure. But tis the season to make records in no doubt about it. The Santa Claus rally appears live in an effect, but given all the wall off the wall shenanigans of 2020, anything could happen here. So while yes, we have the traditional Santa Claus rally that should act as the wind at our back. We don't want to get lured into a false sense of security. We're always going to keep an eye on the short side. If we begin to see cracks in this market, the S&P 500 daily timeframe, similar to the Dow Jones, we pulled back, filled the gap. We closed out the day on the spiders at 360 spot 62. Stokes look strong. RSI looks strong. I think we're moving up higher here. Today was a day that refreshed. We're flirting with prior highs at 364 spot 38. You're seeing a bit of trepidation here as you might expect. I think we're breaking out. Just take note of stoke RSI, a little bit of weakness here, volume to the downside very light, which is exactly what you want to see on a consolidation day. The triple cues, daily chart, they closed out the day at 292 spot 27, down around a third of a percentage point. What's important to take note of here, and I'll invoke my old trader's adage, I think I made this one up, is that all down days are not made equal. So today was a down day. But remember that yesterday we broke out above resistance and we closed there. Today, what did we do? We pulled back, we retested the breakout point. It held. We closed right smack dab at it. You don't want to see the support level broken again. Remember it did it the first week of November. Remember we broke out, failed to hold it and we were rejected. We don't want to see that happen again. And I don't think it's going to RSI is looking okay. Stokes looking better, volumes of the downside today, very light on the trip cues, the small caps, a monster up nearly another half percentage point on the day and outside reversal day. Look at this, we completely engulfed yesterday's price action, very bullish stuff. Stokes are very strong. RSI is very strong. It appears as though we are moving up higher. The only one slight fly in the ointment is that volume did roll in a bit lower, slightly below average, but not that bad. I think that there's more fuel in the tank here for the small caps to head up higher, the banks of which we are long using the FAS. This is the XLF. The XLF was down slightly on the day. We did rally off the lows of the day closing at 27 spot 59. The stochastics are very strong. I think that we are probably going to break out after filling the gap today. Volume rose to about average, but below yesterday's up volume, which is good to see the XLK, the technology sector spiders. Now we were up yesterday. We were stopped at the 122 spot 50 mark. Today we saw an inside day, no new high, no new low. Stokes still look good. RSI is already broken out. We have not put in a new higher high just yet on RSI, but you really didn't expect it with the XLK down on the day. Now with yields possibly lightening up here a bit, we may see a bid get put under the XLK. Frankly, folks, for this market to rally through to the new year, you're going to have to see a bid get put under the technology stocks. There's a huge correlation between technology and the S&P 500. So expect to see higher highs here. However, it may be on very thin volume. So be careful. Volume today to the downside was very light on the XLK, the XLY. I want to talk about the weekly chart here first. And you could see that RSI is still in a downtrend as is or as are I should say the Stokes. Now, last week we had broken out, but we really failed to hold it. This week we pop back up. We're struggling a bit here on the week to hold on to support. I would not be a buyer right here right now. It's only Tuesday. This volume bars it's way too premature to comment on volume. Now the daily chart is looking okay. I think that we may move up higher here and one of our focus stocks going into tomorrow is actually going to be exposure to consumer discretionaries using the retail holders. And I haven't reviewed those in a long time. They came up on one of my screeners. So getting back to the XLY daily chart, RSI higher lows, higher highs, Stokes same deal here, very close to a doji formation on the day today. Volume to the downside was very light. We closed out the day at 154 spot 80 down spot 42%. Not great, but not horrible energy. Another monster day up another percentage point. We're doing very well with this trade. We're longer the XOM X on mobile, but this is the XLE. We closed out the day today. Again, up over percentage point closing price 36.48 RSI higher lows higher highs same deal with stochastics. We broke out today. Our second consecutive day above the 200 day moving average. And as I mentioned last night on market wrap, this is the first time since January of 2020 that we've seen back to back up days or at least one up day above the 200 day moving average on energy. So this is really, really garnering some attention. You saw today the 20 period moving average in green rally up and through and close above the 50 day moving average in blue. This is sexy stuff. It's good stuff. We're probably going to move up higher here. The big concern I have short term is that we have a lot of overhead supply here. All right. So I'm not going to be the least bit surprised to see a spike up higher and for us to perhaps get a reversal bar and then a pullback. Be ready for it. If you're long, think about booking some profits on a spike up higher, make some profits real volume today still very, very strong oil. So I went over the after hours price action on oil. We saw a poor report on oil inventories, meaning we saw a build. However, we're shrugging off the after hours weakness, at least that last look. This is the USO we closed out the day at 28 spot 87 up on the day. Just shy of a quarter percentage point. Not bad. Stokes higher lows. RSI higher lows, both above 50. The LABU. This is the direction that leveraged ETF putting you along with the biotechs. Every time I look at this, I think of Franklin. Hello, Franklin out there, one of our fellow members. I hope he's still long because this sucker appears as though it's probably going up higher. We flashed a bullish reversal day today. I think my price target on this was at last review at 86 bucks a share. We closed out the day 74 at 96. I think we're going higher. A little bit extended on Stokes where about 93 spot 31. So definitely a little bit frothy there. RSI very strong, higher highs, higher lows, volume light. Let's take note of this. Let's respect it. Very light volume, sequentially, no less. Gold, daily chart. Another down day. Let's check out the weekly chart first. We'll come back to the daily chart. Here's our weekly chart. Stokes is still quite weak. They're flirting with a hook up, but still no cigar quite yet. The 1850 mark is extremely critical for gold to hold. We closed out the day today at 1885 spot one zero. Oddly enough, RSI in a weekly timeframe is still above 50 with Stokes. Well below the 50 mark at around 27 on Stokes. Let's go back to the daily chart again. Daily chart. Again, we closed out the day at 1885 spot one zero. I just don't like this chart. This reminds me of a bear flag setup. I think we're going to pull back. We're going to retest this 1853 to 1850 mark. Will that be the bottom? Not quite sure. Remember seasonality is poor this time of year. It gets better in January. This is generally a risk on environment. And yes, 2020 has been a crazy year, but I don't like to say this year it's going to be different. The data is pretty strong, meaning the seasonality data for the strength in the S&P 500 and the weakness in gold prices. So we don't want to fight it. We don't want to try to front run history by speculating too heavily that 2020 is going to be different. Maybe it is. The markets will let us know if it's going to be different. Moving on to positions. The GDXJ, we're not ready to add more here. We expected weakness. We got weakness. A new daily low on the day. Stokes are attempting to bottom out here. I still get that feeling in my gut that we're trying to put in a higher low, perhaps the same deal with RSI. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised. Let's go to our annotated view showing support and resistance levels. Yeah, this is bad. Look what happened here today. This 54 mark has been as porous as a sponge of late, breaking down, recapturing. Maybe it'll do it again, but it's not good that it's such a fluid support level now. Now take note of the stokes. We drew this last night, our trend line. That trend line has not yet been breached. That was our volume today. Volume rose, but it's still fairly low. So for all I know, this could be a head fake just like this one was back here on the 11th. I'm pointing to the candlesticks. Same back here on the 28th of October. Same back here on the 23rd of September. In fact, you know what, to heck with the 54 mark, we're updating our support level. Let's go with, let's go with 51 bucks. We start flirting with that support level. I'll be entertaining, adding to our long position right now though. We're going to stay small. The indicators for the GDXJ are sending us bullish signals in that they're, they're not following through with new lower lows while the share price of the GDXJ certainly is. And that is bearish. So price action trumps the indicators. So at current, we need to sit on our hands, watch and wait. And remember, this is a seasonally weak period of time for the miners as well as gold and silver. Uranium, the URA. We closed out the day at 11 spot four, six. Nice day today. We wore it down. We closed up. Stokes look good. RSI is looking good. I think we're going to move up higher here. We became a little bit overbought. We pulled back. Volume was light today. We'd like to have seen higher volume, but uranium looking good. The FAS, it was extended. It pulled back, held the 4750 mark. This is a leveraged ETF, putting you long of the banks. We have been long for a while now. I'm glad that we got this pause. We did rally off the lows of the day. We still closed down a half percentage point. That was volume, volume light. We may bounce around here for another day or so, but I think that we're probably going to head up higher. The only I don't like is the fact that yields are threatening to pull back here a little bit. The banks do better in a rising and straight environment. So net net, I'm still positive here. The 20 period moving average yesterday crossed above the 200 period moving average, 50 day moving average in blue is hooking up as well. So the moving averages are going in the right direction. We're going to remain long here, quite possibly add to the trade. ExxonMobil, daily chart, up another one in the third percent on the day. We had pulled back on the stochastics, hooked back up. Beautiful. Perfect price action. I think we're probably going to gap up tomorrow. Watch for 40 bucks a share. A lot of resistance up there. We may sell some covered calls. Now, unlike the XLE, the one negative I have to say here is that volume dropped off today. Whereas with the XLE, we saw volume come in above average for the past several days. We had above average volume yesterday, but we didn't get the same today. So that's a bit of a concern, but net net Exxon looking good and it's still yielding about 9 percent. Cal main foods down about nearly two and a quarter percent on the day after breaking out yesterday. That's a bit of a concern, but this is a volatile stock. We're well aware of that. Very thinly traded, but it's a mover. So you have to expect backing and filling. Look for support at 39.50. Where do we close today? At 39.81. So we're probably going to make lower lows here. Volume rose will remain long for now. EDC, which is our direction in daily emerging markets, bull ETF, closed down slightly on the day. And while we broke out yesterday, we failed to hold that support level today. That's a bit of a concern. Volume extremely light, which is good to see to the downside. The Stokes look good. RSI looks good. I don't see a reason to sell here, except for today's price action. A bit of a concern, not a huge deal breaker. Now our bet on Brazil, the BRZU, that was up nearly five and three quarters percent on the day. The Stokes outstanding, RSI outstanding. Volume outstanding. Nothing I don't like here. Perfect. It's a perfect chart. All right. Let's talk about positions. And I was going to talk bullishly about the RTH because it came up on my screener and the screened by Stokes, and they do look very, very good. The however here is that I'm seeing a very serious divergence on the ultimate oscillator. Let's update this. It's been quite some time since I looked at the RTH. We closed out the day today at $155.47. Yeah. We broke out yesterday, but gave it up today. $152.50 is support. I do like these Stokes, but price action Trump's indicators. Volume was about average today. So while it was interesting on the screener as I look closer, I am not as enthralled. And going back to the ultimate oscillator, you could see that we have lower highs after peeking out back in early September, late August, early September, and they have not validated this move up higher. So we'll keep an eye on it. Now the next chart I want to talk about is Cooper Standard Holdings, CPS, the symbol. This is an extreme overbought stock and we're looking to short it for a scout. We closed out. This is a daily chart. We closed out the day today at RSI 86 spot 01. A little bit of a topping tail. I think we could press higher here. I'll go to the monthly chart in a moment because I've already identified where there would be historical resistance and where it would be a good level to lean into the short side. But I do think we're going to get one more surge up higher here. And I hope we do. Volume rose yet again. MACD Histogram, look at this, losing momentum, good stuff when you want to short. Potential lower high on ADX green, double bottom in ADX red. So very frothy monthly chart. Now as you could see, $42 per share is stiff resistance. The last time we saw that level was back in October of 2019 and it acted as resistance in that prior September prior to that. It acted as support in July. So a lot of history there. That's where I think we're going and that's where I'm going to look to lean into the short side. And that's it for tonight, folks. Everybody have a great night. I'll talk to you tomorrow morning on swing trading today. Please enter your symbols on the ticker cloud and I'll go over them for you tomorrow morning. Be well.