 Hello, welcome to Global Connection here on ThinkTech's live streaming network. I'm your host, Grace Cheng, here today with Dr. Sarah Yamine to talk about the next U.S. president and implications for peace and security in South Asia. Hello, Sarah. Thank you for being here today. Thank you for inviting me, Grace. I'm delighted to be here. We have a very interesting topic. One of the interesting things about this elections outcome is that there's going to be a lot to talk about. One of the things is what the implications are for U.S. foreign policy as well as politics in different regions, and so I'm so glad you can come be with us and talk about the implications for the regions that you have expertise in. I'd like to know a little bit of your background before we begin. Grace, I'm an academic by background and I work for the Asia Pacific Center for Security Study here in Honolulu, Hawaii, which is a U.S. Department of Defense executive education program, but I would like to state that my opinions today do not represent those of the organization or the U.S. Department of Defense. I would like to talk about South Asia, the implications and perceptions over there, the reactions to the U.S. elections, if you would like me to and let me know. Yeah, sounds great, you know, because the two candidates for the U.S. presidency were very, very different and they had very different stated positions on foreign policy, including for South Asia. So interesting to know what the reactions have been in South Asia about the results of this election. Right, Grace. So you're very right. Both candidates were very different, as you know, and in fact, a lot of people were watching the elections for a number of reasons, of course, the United States being a very, very important one, probably the most powerful politically preeminent country in the world. But also the prospect of Secretary Clinton, the first woman being elected was being watched in South Asia with a lot of interest, especially because South Asia has produced more women heads of state than any other country in the world, including Indira Gandhi, Benazir Bhutto, the Bangladeshi incumbent right now, Sheikh Hasina, Sri Lanka has had two heads of states and in fact the first ever democratically elected woman was elected in Sri Lanka. So you have a number of, you know, you've seen a number of women presidents and prime ministers, and so everyone was watching. So is Hillary going to break the glass ceiling? It didn't happen. Now, with Hillary, of course, there was also, I think, the understanding that the U.S. policies in South Asia and the world in general are probably not going to change significantly and she's going to probably carry on the Obama legacy. Now, with the president-elect, Mr. Trump, who has promised to be the harbinger of peace, there has been a little bit of, I would say, concern because people are not sure in general what the change really means. And to be very honest, I think there have been some mixed messages positive and in some sense, as you could say, some of the messages have been very, you know, very tough rhetoric. So some of these, some of the concerns in South Asia, of course, are regarding U.S. engagement in the region. The U.S. has been very, very involved. It has had a very prominent, very strong footprint and it has had close relations and it continues to, with many of the countries in South Asia, India, of course, is one of them, the world's largest democracy. And in fact, Mr. Trump had said that India's, the United States' relationship with India is going to be strengthened. So it's not going to be a departure from the previous, from the incumbent regime. It's going to continue and probably he wants to make it even stronger. But at the same time, in India, India has a very close economic partnership with the United States and it is perceived as, or immigration and trade is perceived as a key driver of that relationship from, from, from that vantage point, from that vantage point. And so in India, there is a concern that there is going to be restrictions on immigration now and on the H-1B visa policy, which allows or facilitates the immigration of skilled foreign workers to the United States and there are tens of thousands of Indians working in the United States. Many of them are IT professionals. So there is concern that they're, they're not going to be able to do that. And because Mr. Trump had announced that he is going to make, he is going to curtail immigration and offshoring, so, so how is that going to go? And that's, so that is going to be a concern. In fact, as you may have heard a few days ago, the prime minister of Britain went to India. This was sort of her first international big visit after Brexit. And she received what they call a very rocky relationship in India. She was obviously hoping to strike a lot of trade deals, trying to demonstrate that Britain can pull it off without being part of the, you know, that block, the European Union. But the first thing that she really heard from Prime Minister Modi was that India's relationship with Britain is going to be defined by opportunities for education for Indian youth and their mobility. So and Prime Minister Theresa May has, you know, they have tightened their immigration policy. They do not want to relax their immigration visa policy. So I think it's going to come up if Mr. Trump plans to restrict opportunities for Indians going to India, working in India, and Indians who are hired for US jobs in India, as you are aware. So, of course, that's going to be one concern. Then there are many Muslim countries in four out of eight countries in South Asia or Muslim, primarily predominantly Muslim countries, including Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and the Maldives. And of course, India also has a very large Muslim population, about 170 million. So as you are aware, some of Mr. Trump's rhetoric on Muslims and Muslim countries in general has been rather hard, right? So what are the implications for Muslim countries? There is this concern. At the same time, as I was mentioning some of those mixed messages earlier, Mr. Trump has talked about helping to diffuse tensions between India and Pakistan, which are two countries, two nuclear-art rivals in South Asia. And Pakistan is a Muslim country. India is a predominantly Hindu country. And there, when former President Clinton went to South Asia in 2002, he visited Kashmir, which is a disputed territory, one of the world's oldest unresolved conflicts. And he called it the world's most dangerous part. And Mr. Trump preferred to it as a tinderbox as well. And he said he would love to mediate tensions between India and Pakistan if he were invited by both parties. So that is being looked at or being noted very positively on the Pakistani side, at least, because they would welcome that. And I think it's a very good time for Mr. Trump to seize the opportunity, because, as you may be aware, in recent months, violence has resurged in the Kashmir Valley, in Indian held Kashmir disputed territory. And the Indian forces have used these pellet ammunitions. They have targeted the protesters, rioters, a lot of youth. And so tensions are rising between India and Pakistan as well, because India alleged or claims that Pakistan has a hand or it provides support to some of these militant groups. So India in recent weeks also claimed to make some surgical strikes in Pakistan, which Pakistan denied, but there has been an escalation of cross-border fire. So as I mentioned earlier, these are both nuclear arch-rivals with contiguous borders. Yes, very dangerous. Right. So these are some of the concerns, immigration trade, then, of course, there's geopolitics. So some of Mr. Trump's campaign rhetoric was about disengaging in some ways from the world. And so there is uncertainty about, well, what does that disengagement really mean for the United States? Is the United States not going to lead the world as it has for many, many decades now? Is it going to create, you know, step away from the region in some ways and create space for Russia and China to get more involved or to work more closely with some of these countries? And remember, South Asia is within China's sphere of influence. It has borders with six out of eight South Asian countries. Russia also has very close defense ties with India. It has historically had a very close relationship with India. So these are all questions. So is Mr. Trump going to carve out a new geopolitical trajectory for the United States? How different is the world going to look? The good news, Grace, is that all the South Asian leaders have congratulated Mr. Trump on his election and they all want to work with him. And I think that's important for everyone to work together. Because this world, it's an interconnected world, as you're aware, it's an era of unprecedented globalization and it's very difficult to operate on your own without cooperation and collaboration and dialogue with other countries. Yes, yes. And it kind of also shows that, yeah, like despite Mr. Trump's rhetoric, he has to acknowledge that there are really important roles that the U.S. has been playing in the region and because of the tensions that might be existing between some of the states. And that's one of the things that he said which maybe causes more concern on the Pakistan side is that he's sort of described Pakistan as a very dangerous country and he's been very, very critical of them accusing Pakistan of harboring terrorism, of refuge for Osama bin Laden until the U.S. found him. And so I think the reactions of the different states must be different, but they still don't want the U.S. to disengage. Oh, absolutely not. And you're absolutely right. The U.S. has played a very important role. Sometimes it's welcomed, that role is welcomed, sometimes it's not. Sometimes it's helped the region, sometimes it has complicated the situation in a number of ways. But there have been, you know, many, many, there are many positive examples of successes of U.S. intervention in 2001, two, for instance, there was a year-long face-off, military face-off between India and Pakistan after, this is soon after 9-11 happened, there was an attack on the Indian parliament and the Indian government alleged this attack was orchestrated by militants which had covert support from the Pakistani establishment. And so they deployed about half a million troops along the Pakistani border, very dangerous situation to, you know, these two nuclear neighbors and Pakistan responded in a tit for that fashion and it was then, it was mediation by the United States that really helped to thaw the tensions between the two countries. So Pakistan in particular is always looking for U.S. intervention or facilitation or mediation. Right, right. So that would be an interesting thing to watch for because that is, and we also have Afghanistan next door. That's right. So we'll come back after this break and talk a little bit more about that. Thank you so much, Saira. Thank you, Grace. All right. Join us at Think Tech of Hawaii. Our show is Asia in Review. Our next program is on November 17. This is Johnson Choi, your host. Aloha, everyone. I hope you've been watching Think Tech Hawaii, but I'm here to invite you to watch me on Viva Hawaii every Monday at 3 p.m. I'm waiting for you. Mahalo. Aloha, everybody. My name is Mark Shklav. I'd like you to join me for my program, Law Across the Sea on ThinkTechHawaii.com. Aloha. Hey, everybody. My name is David Chang, and I'm the new host of a new show, The Art of Thinking Smart. I'm really excited to be able to share with you secrets on giving yourself a smart edge in life. We're going to have awesome guests and great mentors of mine from the political, military, business, nonprofit. You name it. Something for everybody. Hi. Welcome back to Global Connections. I'm your host, Grace Chang. You're talking with Dr. Syra Yamine about the next U.S. presidents and its implications for peace and security in South Asia. Welcome back, Syra. Happy to be here. Grace. And we were talking before the break about how the different countries in the region are feeling about possibly the potential direction change that U.S. policy in the region could take. And we don't know yet, but based on the stated positions of President-elect Trump, you know, there are possible changes in the dynamics. But one of the things that all, it seems that all the South Asian states hope is that the U.S. will not completely disengage because historically and up until recent times playing an important role as far as helping to diminish and maybe move towards alleviating some of the tensions in the region. That's right, Grace. And you are absolutely right in suggesting that Pakistan is concerned that the U.S. is going to increasingly lean further, even more towards India. And maybe you talked about some of President-elect's rhetoric about Pakistan harboring terrorists and that, you know, he's going to be probably more hard-line. So there is that concern. And U.S.-Pakistan have had quite a difficult relationship. They've had a long, very long, historically, they've been allies, but it's been a very difficult alliance. It's been a difficult relationship. Although I would add that Pakistan was instrumental in, as a bridge-builder, between the United States and China also. And Pakistan was also a key player in the Cold War, where it was fighting, so to speak, a proxy war on behalf of the United States. It was actually a conduit for arms and ammunition during the Soviet-Afghan War that were being supplied by the United States. And also there was a lot of support from Saudi Arabia. So Pakistan was a conduit for all the support for the Afghan Mujahideen that were fighting the communists at that time. And at that time, the U.S. involvement and the support to the Afghan Mujahideen hastened the collapse of the Soviet Empire. So historically, Pakistan and the United States have had a very, very, you know, it's a close, difficult, yes, there is a very difficult relationship with Pakistan. But at the same time, it has to be remembered Pakistan is also receiving a lot of aid. It is one amongst the highest recipients of aid, development aid, as well as military aid from the United States. India, of course, India has actually shifted its positioning towards the United States in recent decades. Since President Clinton, former President Clinton actually made very friendly overtures towards India. And traditionally, India had been pro-Soviet Union, former Soviet Union. And India appeared very skeptical of the United States on many levels. But now they, you know, they're working very closely with the United States, especially under Prime Minister Modi. So you do see a strategic partnership being forged by these two countries, you know, amongst the two largest democracies in the world. And Pakistan reacts to that. Pakistan does, you know, it feels somewhat vulnerable and insecure because of that. But at the same time, Pakistan and China also have a very close relationship. And many in the region believe that the United States still towards India is, well, partly for economic gains because India is such a huge market. But also it wants to build up India as a counter to counter China. China has had a very, as I mentioned, a very, very close strategic relationship with Pakistan. And there is also the perception that Chinese ulterior motives are really to balance Indian hegemony in the region. Because China and India also have a very interesting relationship. It features both conflict and cooperation, although, you know, and they've been to war. They have disputed territory. But they have, in the past few decades, since the 1990s, they have also been working and they have, you know, worked on a close economic partnership. And in fact, China is making a lot of, it's investing a lot of develop, investing into a lot of development projects in India. So a lot of foreign direct investment is coming from China. So both countries are benefiting from that relationship. But at the same time, they're both very, very of each other. So the closer India gets to the United States, that China and Pakistan come even closer. And they're quite close in any case. And in fact, China is building this economic corridor, which is known as a CPEC, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which is a network of roads and railways and this infrastructure that will connect Western China all the way down to Pakistan's western port, Gavadar port, and it will give it very convenient access to markets in the Middle East. It will be able to bypass a lot of, you know, if it gets direct land access to Gavadar port from China. It will be able to bypass a lot of traffic that goes through the sea lanes, right. And it saves a lot of money. So this is a $45 billion project, which has already started, and which obviously is an indicator of the close relationship, which is strategic as well as economic, Gavadar port, actually, which is in Pakistan's west, is controlled by the Chinese. And it's the success of Chinese foreign policy. So you see very interesting geopolitics in the region. Russia is also now, in recent weeks, has had some joint military exercises with Pakistan for the first time, and which is making India very nervous. That's very interesting. Right. And they're not. So the Indian side is not very happy with that situation. How is it developing, right? So South Asians are watching the developments in the United States, and they're waiting to see how the U.S. is going to change its positioning in South Asia, its footprint in South Asia. You mentioned Afghanistan. Of course, we are post-2014, and most of the international troops have been drawn from Afghanistan, but I believe there are still 10,000 to 15,000 American troops over there, primarily in a support role. But Afghanistan is still very much, I think, very much a textbook case of state failure, a country which has been a war zone for about 40 years. Yes. Right. And it is unable to sustain without support, international support, the government, and you see that since the withdrawal of international troops, you've seen the Taliban gaining territory again. And now they are apparently in control of 30 percent of the territory. They're claiming control of about, I believe, 70 districts in Afghanistan. So what is the United States? How is the United States going to approach that? Mr. Trump has said he's going to, for instance, he's going to deal with ISIS. He's going to take care of ISIS, so it's unsure. So what are the implications going to be for all the countries involved in the region? Right. And the United States as well as South Asia, how is he going to deal with the Taliban? Yes. Yeah, the Taliban or other threats. And I think one of the sore points between the U.S. and Pakistan recent years have been the drone strikes that the U.S. has been conducting in the region. And if the U.S., as far as the cooperative relations with Pakistan in trying to deal with the neighbors as well as terrorism threat in the region, but with some regard for Pakistani sovereignty, I think that's been one of their grievances with the Obama administration. Yes. And with this new coming. I mean, it seems that Pakistan's relationships have really changed because, you know, we were talking about Afghanistan, it's important to the United States in the Cold War to help bring down the Soviet Union, Pakistan with the conduit for the Mujahideen recruitment into Afghanistan, and also to bring China at the time, right, not so global and capitalist, helped to normalize the relations. And now China and the U.S. are kind of at odds. But Pakistan has always had kind of this favored position because it's been important geopolitically to the U.S. But Donald Trump's kind of rhetoric has suggested he might want to keep the troops in Afghanistan, not just to deal with the Taliban threat there, but also to kind of because Pakistan is next door and he's concerned about what's happening in that country. Right. So that would be interesting to watch out what happens because, as you're aware, the drone policy, of course, it has soured relations between Pakistan and the United States. I think it's more the people of Pakistan that have been concerned about its sovereignty because based on statements and based on evidence, it appears that the Pakistani government did tacitly allow the United States to conduct those drone strikes. But at the same time, there's a lot of public pressure on governments, whether it's a civilian government, a democratically elected government, or whether the military regime, the Musharraf regime, which apparently former president Musharraf suggested in one of the interviews that, yes, we allowed the United States to conduct those drones. But these drones, because of the collateral damage, have been very, very, have been a source of a lot of resentment toward the United States in Pakistan. In fact, public opinion has really deteriorated because of that. But at the same time, so President George Bush started the drone campaign and when President Obama was elected, the drone strikes went up by about four times. And they were increased. And of course, that made the situation worse. And it's also in Pakistan, many people believe that the drone strikes have helped to recruit more terrorists and that they have been a fodder for propaganda for the terrorist organizations. So they have not been very helpful. Yeah, so a lot of things, probably differences in opinion between the popular opinion as well as the state opinions, because they have their own reasons for making the decisions they have. Well, thank you so much, Syrah, for coming in to talk about this interesting topic. It will certainly have to see about what happens under a Trump presidency, but certainly many different directions it could take and a very important region that you've helped us understand a bit better. Thank you, Grace. It's a very, very interesting outcome of the election and I think we're all watching and we're all trying to be very optimistic and hoping for the best. Yes, let's hope so. All right. Thank you all for watching today. This is Global Connections. I'm your host, Grace Chang, here with Dr. Syrah Yameen to talk about the next U.S. President and implications for peace and security in South Asia. Join us next Thursday at 1 p.m. and every Thursday at that time. Aloha.