 Hello, everyone. Welcome to another International Relations Capsule for the Shankar IAS Academy. Today we shall discuss the turmoil in Pakistan. This is not unusual because Pakistan has been the grip of various crises, particularly in the last one year. Some of the permanent factors of Pakistan are at play, like for example the crucial role of the weakness of democracy. Democratic leaders not being able to perform, financial crisis, economic crisis, lack of support from strong allies like the United States. China also not taking much action to save Pakistan from their economic collapse. Then of course natural disaster. So a number of these things were at play in the last one year and that has now brought Pakistan to a brink of disaster. Various factors. First of all the economic crisis. Pakistan is trying very hard to get the IMF bailout. But neither the United States nor some of the neighbors of Pakistan are very enthusiastic about supporting the IMF bailout about 6 billion US dollars. It is still being negotiated but there is no agreement, particularly because of the conditionalities imposed by the IMF. And even Saudi Arabia and UAE etc have been very friendly to Pakistan and insisting that Pakistan should abide by the rules of the IMF. In the middle of all this, Imran Khan, the most popular leader in Pakistan today, was ousted from the Prime Minister ship. And in its place civilian government has come in with Shabas Sharif as the Prime Minister but it has not been particularly popular. So popular government has been replaced by a rather unpopular government and with very little experience. And the army itself is divided because there has been some task a little between the army chief who has retired, General Bajwa and his successor. So the usual situation where the army, the democratic government and the foreign friends of Pakistan are working together is not happening at this time. And therefore each one is trying to get hold of power and to bring the country back to normalcy. The people are dissatisfied and they are ready to demonstrate protest etc against whoever they think is not with the people. So in this situation there have been assassination attempts at Imran Khan. He has been ridiculed and is not being able to function. And lots of corruption charges have been leveled against him. There is also a difference of opinion between the High Court and the Supreme Court as to how to handle Imran Khan. So all this situation prevailed and the middle of all this Imran Khan was arrested. His arrest was also somewhat peculiar because he was actually in the High Court premises to attend to one of the several cases against him. And perhaps the police were supposed to arrest him. There was some confusion and it did not happen and therefore the army unit arrested him and put him in jail. The Supreme Court released him and so Imran Khan is now out on bail. But this time the ouster of Imran Khan caused considerable disturbance in the country. And disturbance was also aimed against the all-powerful army of Pakistan. And this is something unusual. So normally what happens is when the political situation fails and the economic situation becomes acute. Normally the army tends to take over and there is a period of military dictatorship takes place. And this has not happened so far. The situation remains like that. Obviously the Pakistani army is keeping an eye very closely but they have not taken any action. Particularly because they have sensed that the anger of the people are also directed against the army. The headquarters itself was attacked rather unusual. And the commander's home was ransacked and people were seen like it happened in Sri Lanka. Or people taking away the rations from the commander's house and enjoying themselves eating strawberries for example. So this was called a strawberry revolution by some people. But this was all demonstrative and Pakistan army was able to deal with this situation. Now what is the way of what is what everybody is thinking about. The first is the IMF loan. So if it comes through then they may be able to safeguard the economy at least for the time being. But that has not yet happened. Elections are what Imran Khan would like because he is still very popular. And it is believed that if there are elections he is likely to win hands down. He is not very keen to have the elections immediately. The prime minister is trying his best to run the country. But he is considered weak and unpopular. And so where does the country go is the question. It is quite possible that elections may be postponed because neither the army nor the democratic government elected government are not very excited about bringing Imran Khan back. And therefore some people even believe that Imran Khan has no political future anymore because there are many forces against him. And since he had fallen out with the army the trouble had begun because the belief in Pakistan is that the support of the army and the support of the Americans are necessary for any government to continue. Because of the Afghanistan situation and various games played by Pakistan the United States is not particularly keen to intervene. And they would of course rather see it from outside but at the same time United States will not abandon Pakistan. So if there is a problem they are likely to step in that is one possibility to help. The other possibility is China. China has always been a very faithful friend of Pakistan. But they also don't seem to be very anxious to intervene at this stage. Though whichever government functions in Pakistan will be able to get support from China and the United States in one way or the other. In between there has also been an aggravation of the situation of the Taliban in Afghanistan. And the Pakistani Taliban has also been working against the system. And that was another crisis that the present government has to face. So there is total uncertainty and lack of political leadership. And then there are several things that Pakistan often does when they are in a crisis situation. One thing they can do is to create some problems with India. Create a situation on the line of control and create some kind of a distraction and accuse India of having created all the trouble. But they have not shown any indication of that. But it's quite possible that the army might ignite some kind of trouble on the LOC. That will distract the attention of the people from the internal crisis in Pakistan. Of course that is something that we can deal with. But at the moment there is a ceasefire agreement which is in force and it is being observed. And there is no particular problem on the border. But that's a possibility that we have to see. So the future of Trabaz Sharif government and the future of Imran Khan are the two issues which have to be tackled. So elections are tentatively suggested for October. But that's not likely because if there is any possibility of Imran Khan coming back to power that will be opposed by several forces including the Pakistani Taliban. So this uncertainty continues and obviously there are efforts being made by the various actors in Pakistan to bring about some normalcy. So the difference in the present situation is the dissatisfaction with the Pakistan army. Because the option of the Pakistani army taking over power is not immediate. Because the army is not confident that they will be able to run the country in the present circumstances. So if elections are held there may be some solution but that is not certain. And Imran Khan was arrested on May 9th though he is out on bail. There are other cases under which he can be arrested again. So the army is not very clear as to which political party should be allowed to come to power. So the situation is such that there is considerable uncertainty. And the situation may either lead to the elections in October and the government may be elected and it could still be Imran Khan. Now the other possibility is that the army might step in because this problem started, Imran Khan's problem started when he fell out with the army. Because you might remember that Imran Khan was elected only after he had made peace with the army. Because earlier when he was an independent candidate he did not win the elections. So he won the elections by getting the support of the army as well as some terrorist elements in Pakistan. And so he had an election victory. But those very forces which brought him to power were disappointed and that is why the situation arose. And since Imran Khan is still popular an election is not considered desirable from the point of view of the army. So the cycle of violence that has erupted can pick up again because of the inflation, the non-availability of essential goods and the general failure of the economy. So the effort of the present government will be to activate the IMF package so that the economic situation can be resolved. But the political situation cannot be resolved unless there is a change in the government. What would be the prospect of a new leadership? As you all know Bilal Bhutto is very much active. He is the foreign minister. And he visited India. He came to go and attend the SCO conference. This was rather tricky because India is the chairman of SCO. This is the year when we are chairman of many things. And some of them are blessings but some of them are not so positive from our perspective. Like the SCO, the Shanghai Economic Operation. The other situation is that China will have a very great influence there. Russia has influence. In fact the SCO itself was formed basically because of the initiative of Russia and China to keep the Central Asian republics under some kind of a unified situation. And India joined that basically because we wanted to have better relations with the Central Asian republics. And Pakistan was also brought in by China and Russia. And now it is being expanded. So it's becoming an organization which does not have a political glue to it. China and Russia still will create influence. And soon after the ministerial meeting in Delhi, the Chinese held a separate meeting with the Central Asian republics. So they want to keep their hold on them. And any activity by the SCO will naturally be with the consent of the Chinese. So even though India is German, we are basically coordinating the meeting and nothing much more. And below those visits to India became some big news because this is a Pakistani foreign ministry visiting India after 11 years. And the bilateral relations are at the lowest at the moment. It was suspected that Pakistan may not participate in this year meeting, but their loyalty is more to China. And since China was actively participating, they wanted to come. But from both sides from India and Pakistan side, there was not much warmth or not much of welcome was accorded to Bilal Butto. It was quite obvious that Butto himself was concentrating on relations with other countries. So he had bilateral visits with other members of the SCO, but there was really no ice to melt between India and foreign minister than him. And he made a show of this because he has to show to his people back home that he is very tough with India and very tough on Kashmir etc. But his father Sardari is a clever man and he might try to project Bilal as the next prime minister. So for that reason, he had to appear to be very strict and firm with India and therefore the visit did more harm than good. So though there is no danger of any threat from Pakistan to India at this moment because they themselves are very weak, we have to be on the lookout as to how this situation will develop. The economic situation, the political situation, the role of the army, the divisions within the army, these are all very important factors in Pakistan. And democracy is very fragile. And naturally India will watch the situation carefully to see that these do not spread to the border or create any problems for India. And there is no such danger at the moment because of the dynamics of Pakistani politics and the army at this time. So there is no immediate solution. There is no direction which Pakistan is taking which can be considered positive. India has to be careful because of possible provocation on our border. And over and above all this, there is no confirmation that the nuclear sets of Pakistan are safe and under control. Because as a nuclear weapon state Pakistan can be extremely dangerous in that kind of situation of turmoil like this. So a host of problems which contribute to our own difficulties with Pakistan, but the solution is either an election in October or an army takeover. So both these seem to be, do not seem to be distinct possibilities. But that might change the situation but otherwise this will continue and the crisis will be of concern not only to India but our neighbors. Obviously US, China and the Gulf countries are keeping a close watch. And hopefully it will not lead to more populace of popular demonstrations against the government and they may be able to pull through. That is the best hope we can hold out for Pakistan. So it's really a very difficult situation which we have to watch and the sooner it is resolved the better. Because many people believe that India, Pakistan, turmoil in Pakistan or a collapse of Pakistan may be helpful to India. But certainly no kind of, we would certainly want stability in that country and the solution to be found. So that will be helpful to the subcontinent as a whole and the world. So this is the present situation in Pakistan, whether Pakistan will at one time get back to India having got into all this trouble, try to make peace with India is also a possibility which is being mentioned by some people. But I don't know whether they would seek the support of India because this trust of India is very acute and that is being encouraged by the army. So India as a friend who can help Pakistan in this crisis is not a possibility which can be considered. But certainly we have a stake in what is happening in Pakistan and we can hope and pray that Pakistan will return to normalcy and resolve their own internal conflicts. Thank you.