 Hey everyone. This is Dan with another episode of my Moderna and BioNTech videos. Moderna and BioNTech reached their all-time highs on August 10th. After that, both of them dropped quite a bit. About 3 weeks ago, they started to recover but are still more than 20% below their previous peaks. The two companies will be announcing their quarterly earnings in the next 2-3 weeks. Their earnings are expected to be very impressive. I believe the stock prices of Moderna and BioNTech will recover because of their quarterly earnings and because of a few other reasons. Let's get into the details. First of all, let's review my price forecast from October 3rd, 2021. I predicted at a time that Moderna would reach $430 a share and BioNTech reached $420 a share by the end of December of this year, 2021. At a time, Moderna was at $341, BioNTech at $254. Since then, Moderna has gone down a little bit. As of the past Friday, it closed at $326 and BioNTech went up a little bit. It closed last Friday at $278. In light of the developments in the last couple weeks, will I be setting new price targets? I will get into that in the next few minutes. Stay tuned. We have a lot to cover. With regard to the quarterly earnings announcements, Moderna will announce their quarterly earnings on November 4th and BioNTech on November 9th. Definitely, I will be paying a lot of attention to the earning reports and my expectation is that the stock prices of both companies will be going up starting from now until at least shortly before or even after the earnings announcements. Let's look at the volatility of the two stocks. In this chart, Moderna is represented by the candlestick chart and BioNTech by the yellow line. As we can see that they reached the peak on August 8th and then after that they dropped and hit bottom around the beginning of October. They started to recover a little bit but they are still very far from their all-time highs. At the bottoms, Moderna dropped 42% from its peak and BioNTech dropped 50% from its peak. If you look at the previous volatility of Moderna, which is fairly representative of the two stocks as far as volatility, this bottom here in January of this year it dropped by about 40% from its previous peak and then we have another bottom here around the end of March and that was 35% from its previous peak and then this here around main timeframe it was 20% off its previous peak. That's why a 40-50% drop is fairly typical compared to previous drops although I have to admit that this drop is pretty steep because of a few issues and I'll cover them in the next few minutes and I'll also explain why I am not too worried about some of those issues. This very steep price drop here that happened around October 1st was because of the announcement of the COVID pill produced by Merck and I'll talk about that in the next few minutes as well. Let's talk about a good news first. As of October 20th, FTA cleared Moderna and J&J vaccines for their booster shops and allow Mix and Match shots and they cleared the booster shots for people 65 years of age or older and also people that are immunity compromised as well as people who are exposed to high risk because of the nature of the work. Before that on September 22nd, FTA cleared a booster shot for BioNTech and again that was for people 65 years of age or older people with high risk and people with occupational exposure. Why did the FTA advisors not recommend the COVID booster shots for all adults? That's because the panel with experts believed that they think it's too soon for all adults who receive the third shot and also they didn't see enough evidence to justify the booster shot for everyone. They like to have more data and they're concerned about the effects on the younger adults and teens. They believe we should get more people vaccinated with the first shot rather than trying to promote the third shot. In the meanwhile, subsequent to the FDA panel, on October 7th, Pfizer submitted data to the FDA asking for authorization for the COVID vaccine for kids ranging from age 5 to 11 and also Pfizer and BioNTech announced on October 21st they have additional phase 3 trial data showing the high efficacy of the booster dose. That will hopefully satisfy the requirements of the FDA advisory panel which hopefully will lead to the approval of the booster shot for all adults. My expectation is that the booster shot for all adults will be approved within one or two months and that will certainly give upward momentum to the stock of both BioNTech and Moderna because usually the approval from Moderna follows that for the BioNTech by about a month. On October 1st, Merck came up with an announcement that they have developed this COVID pill that will reduce the risk of death and hospitalization and because of it we can see the chart here both Moderna and BioNTech drop significantly because of this news. I believe it's an overreaction on the part of the investors and I'll explain more. In the meanwhile, if you look closer into what this pill is all about, first of all it'll cost about $700 per treatment and it reduces the risk of hospitalization or death by approximately 50%. From a cost-benefit perspective, I don't think it's worthwhile to forego the vaccine and take on a risk of getting infected when the pill can only prevent hospitalization or death by 50% and not 100% and besides the cost is pretty high compared to cost of vaccine which is about $20-$30 per dose and actually in an informal survey on my Twitter site 94% of respondents said that they would rather take the vaccine than try to forego the booster shot to take the risk of getting infected and then ended up having to take the COVID treatment either from Merck or from other pharmaceutical companies and also this is really not new news because prior to that on August 4th Regeneron also got their emergency approval for their COVID treatment RegenCov. It's actually 81% effective a lot more effective than the Merck pill however the Regeneron treatment cost $1500 per treatment of course is 81% effective which is pretty good and it's administered not orally but by injection or by IV drip. Another treatment was developed by Eli Lilly also received FDA emergency approval it was approved on November 9th. The cost is $850 per treatment and the effectiveness is 87% also better than the Merck pill that's why I believe the investors overreacted to the announcement about the Merck pills and I believe that eventually the stock price will recover. Now this is another step back for Moderna because on October 7th it was reported that Finland joined Sweden and Denmark in limiting the Moderna vaccine for the use on younger males because of the fear about the cardiovascular side effect. After I've done a lot of searches on the internet I have not seen any clear data indicating that the side effect or specifically the cardiovascular side effect are stronger from the Moderna vaccine than the BioNTech vaccine. Maybe there's some political concerns and also because the BioNTech vaccine is more prevalent in Europe that's why these countries decided that they would rather focus on the BioNTech Pfizer vaccine than try and be exposed to the Moderna vaccine. This is the report that's typical of the comparison of side effects between the two vaccines. This is CNBC channel 5 Chicago it says that experts are saying that data showed the two are similar and side effects really depend on more of the person rather than the shot itself. Many articles are saying the same thing that's why I don't think Moderna is any more dangerous than the BioNTech vaccine. Eventually I think the dust will settle and the countries will be using both vaccines. In the meanwhile there's been a lot of talk about the Novavax vaccine which is still in the process of trying to get approval from WHO, EU and also the US and it's a subunit protein vaccine which is different from Moderna and BioNTech vaccines that are mRNA vaccine. The Novavax vaccine is supposed to be pretty effective also more than 90% and that's why I'm watching this very closely. In the meanwhile Novavax is facing manufacturing setback for example the US government has ordered Novavax to stop making vaccine until they can pass the standard by the US government. I'll be watching that very closely. This is a summary of which vaccine has been approved for whom in the US and in the European Union. In the US the BioNTech vaccine has been approved for people 12 years and older, Moderna 18 years and older, Johnson and Johnson 18 years and older and in the EU the BioNTech vaccine is being approved for 12 years and older, Moderna 12 years and older, Johnson and Johnson 18 years and older and AstraZeneca for people 18 years and older. Why do I think Moderna and BioNTech will recover? First of all all the scientists agree that the effectiveness of the COVID vaccines fade over time. It's just a matter of how soon that means sooner or later the FDA and EU will have to approve the booster shots. The mRNA technology by Moderna and BioNTech offer vaccines that are more than 90% effective versus traditional vaccines for flu which are only 60 to 70% effective so this is a really a revolutionary technology and the development cycle of the mRNA vaccine is very fast only six to eight months for FDA emergency approval for the COVID vaccines and the COVID vaccines are needed by almost everyone in the world unlike any other pharmaceutical products and that's why there has been and will be tremendous sales volume related to these vaccines and there's very few competitions against mRNA and BioNTech. It took only about a year and a half for the alpha strain to mutate into the very contagious and very dangerous delta variant and more variants are expected in the future which will call for fast development of booster vaccines. That means people will need mRNA technology more and more in the future in fact in the UK they already found this delta plus variant I'll be talking a little bit more about that later. There are also other products in the Moderna and BioNTech pipelines that will ensure continuous income streams for both companies. I've been tracking the price trajectories of both Moderna and BioNTech comparing them to the trajectories of Regeneron and MGen to other pharmaceutical companies with breakthrough technologies. The 100% point is at 60 days after the approval of each of their blockbuster drugs. When I first published this chart it was January 11th we were right here and now as of October 22nd the blue line here is BioNTech black line here is Moderna as you can see there here right on the path of the trajectory the light blue dotted line is Regeneron and the yellow dotted line is MGen so according to this chart the price for both Moderna and BioNTech will at least double or even triple in the next few years and that's why I believe they are very good long-term investments both Moderna and BioNTech. If you like what you've seen so far I'd like to encourage you to click the like subscribe and notification button that will enable you to receive notification when I publish my next video and it will also encourage me to make more videos like this in the future thank you very much let's continue at this point I'd like to let you know that I'm not a financial advisor I share my stock trading strategies and analyses for educational purpose only if you want to invest in stocks you should make your own decisions and you should definitely consult with your financial advisors before you do so let's continue let's look at the daily new COVID cases in the United States from this chart we can see that we had this peak in January of 2021 and then after that the vaccines started to get rolled out then the daily cases started to drop quickly and then when the Delta variant became more prevalent then we saw the second peak around July August timeframe and since then more people have been getting vaccinated and the protective measures have stepped up in certain places also the vulnerable people are receiving the third shots and because of that the daily new cases are coming down again which is great news and we see the similar pattern with death rate which is very nice the death rate is reducing also if you look at Israel similar pattern one peak around January the second peak around July August timeframe and the decrease has been even more impressive they're almost down to zero here as far as daily new cases the death rate also followed the same pattern very drastic reduction if you look at a percentage of people getting vaccinated in the US 66% having received the first shot 57% fully vaccinated Israel 69% first shot 63% fully vaccinated a little bit higher than the rates in the US more impressively in Israel more than 70% of the people in Israel between age 60 and 69 have already received a third Pfizer COVID vaccine shot and that's one of the reasons why the daily new cases have been dropping so quickly and so this is good information to promote the booster shot in the US and the rest of the world let's look at Europe UK again a peak in January second peak starting in July but the bad news is that they have not been getting any better and actually that's because of this new delta variant actually a variant on top of the variant some people call it delta plus variant in the UK which is supposed to be pretty contagious although the good news is that the death rate has gone up a little bit but not too bad compared to the January February peak although you can see the death rate is coming up a little bit here also that's alarming in Germany similar to the UK although the most recent increase not as fast as the UK I'm just maybe thinking there might be a time lag unless something more is done like giving more people to boost the shot they might not be able to contain this new variant or maybe we can have new vaccines developed by BioNTech and Moderna to counter these new variants as I mentioned previously fortunately the death rate in Germany is not going up too quickly in the last few weeks but again it's still alarming vaccination rate UK 74% first shot 68% fully vaccinated Germany 69% first shot 66% fully vaccinated similar to the US data and similar to Israeli data except that they are not as advanced as far as administering the booster shot worldwide we see these peak here and although it's been going down a little bit but the rate of decrease of the daily new cases has been slowing the daily new cases still more than 411 thousand new cases a day which is very high and a daily death rate unfortunately is more than 6600 people a day definitely the world needs a lot more vaccines how many more doses they need I got some information from the Bloomberg vaccine tracker it says that more than 6.86 billion doses have been administered around the world in 184 countries enough to cover 44.6% of the population in the world in other words 55 percent of the populations do need the vaccine in my own opinion that means at least 6 billion doses will be needed for the unvaccinated people and then more than 4 billion doses of booster shots are needed just in 2022 alone and that's based on the assumption that the people having received the first or second shot will need to have the booster shot within 8 to 9 months after their last injection and of course Moderna and BioNTech will be providing some of these shots almost at least 40 50 percent of these shots will be Moderna and BioNTech shots let's look at the news with regard to vaccine production around the world first of all BioNTech announced that they will be setting up a Brazilian operation to produce more vaccines and they will have vaccine production in South Africa in Singapore in South Korea and also they already have a joint venture in China although the Chinese government has not approved the BioNTech vaccine yet and maybe because of the Chinese vaccines they have already EMA in Europe approved two additional manufacturing sites for BioNTech they are both located in Italy which will supply about 85 billion additional doses and then Moderna recently announced that they would be setting up a plan in South Africa to produce vaccines to supply Africa so they will be producing a lot more doses in the next in the next couple years let's look at valuation of the two companies let's look at the pipeline Moderna currently has one product in commercial phase which is of course the covid vaccine and they have six products in phase two especially the cmv vaccine is almost ready for phase three and then they have nine products in phase one and 13 in preclinical development that's a very impressive drug pipeline and that's why i'm very optimistic about the future incomes for Moderna according to my last analysis i came to the conclusion of $430 a share by the end of December 31st 2021 now because of the hesitation of the investors and because of what happened in the last couple months i am getting a little bit more conservative although i'm pretty confident about Moderna reaching the 430 target and above that in the next few months at this point i'm just stretching the time frame for reaching the target so instead of by the end of this year i would say 430 can be reached by the end of January 2022 my calculations here are very conservative for example for 2022 i only assume production of 1.2 billion doses whereas the company has announced that they have planned for 3 billion doses so if they can reach the 3 billion doses the price of course will be a lot higher than $430 a share for BioNTech they also have a pretty strong product pipeline one product in commercial phase of course the covid vaccine one in phase two which is the patient specific cancer antigen therapy they have 11 products in phase one which is pretty impressive and 14 in preclinical development this is my calculations from last time and i arrived at the conclusion of $420 a share by the end of this year 2021 and again similar to Moderna i am setting the time frame a little bit longer to be January 31st 2022 for the price to reach $420 a share again i'm still very bullish on both companies for the long term because of the reasons that we discussed in the last few minutes let's look at the professional analyst opinions here i'm comparing the analyst ratings from october 3rd to the ratings today october 24th the price first of all went from 341 to 326 for Moderna certainly it went down and my target remains the same at 430 although the time for reaching the target has been stretched from the end of december to the end of january Yahoo Business maintains its whole rating it went a little bit better from 2.7 to 2.6 the smaller the number for better for this particular rating the high target remains the same at 490 average it's being downgraded a little bit to 340 and the low rating remains the same at 85 louis nevilleas is still very upbeat about a stock overall rating of a tip ranks calm maintains the whole rating although a high target went from 485 down a little bit to 468 the average rating went up a little bit from 363 to 366 low ratings the same at 115 cn money went from hold to buy which is nice and then the high rating went from 485 to a little bit lower to 468 medium rating went down from 453 to 375 and low rating remains at 85 file and tag the price went up a little bit from last time from 254 to 278 my target remains the same at 420 against the time of reaching that target this change from the end of december to end of january and yahoo rating maintains its whole rating high target went up a little bit to 449 average target went down a little bit to 327 low target went from 152 to 153 essentially and changed louis nevilleas overall a rating very bullish tip ranks maintains its buy rating high target it's about the same average target went down from 373 to 336 and low rating went down from 248 to 230 cn money maintains its whole rating high target is about the same 446 to 444 medium rating went down a little bit from 394 to 330 and a low rating and the low rating remains at 151 overall there's being a little bit of reduction as far as the high medium and low targets and overall i think the analysts are still fairly bullish about both stocks let's recap my price forecast i expect moderna to be at 430 and above and bioantech at 420 and above by the end of january 2022 and the earning dates are moderna november 4th bioantech november 9th what are my strategies first of all as i've done so for the last few months i'll be holding and i have been holding some moderna and bioantech shares for the long term because i'm bullish about both companies for the long term and i recently bought more bioantech shares that was on october 20 and i've already seen some paper profit on those shares i've been swing trading some of my shares i will sell when the price pulls back at a major resistance point or whenever news developed and i will buy when the price bounces back from a major support point or when positive news develops i will update my subscribers by way of my twitter messages i'd like to suggest that you also subscribe to my twitter account dan market l in addition to subscribing to my youtube channel for example on october 14 i mentioned that because the price was dropping quickly for bioantech and from moderna i sold some bioantech shares and then october 20 when the stock price started to recover i bought back some bioantech shares and actually i'm still seeing a little bit of paper profit on these shares again i'd like to remind you to click the like subscribe and notification button as usual i will very much welcome your comments questions and suggestions this is about wraps up my video for now i will chat with you again in the next few days in the meanwhile i'd like to wish you the very best of luck with your financial investments