 Will James Cameron's avatar the way of the water break the box office? Or is he shooting for a number so high? It's unobtainium. That's a reference to the first film no one remembers. Let's talk about Avatar 2. Avatar came out in 2009. That was 14 years ago. According to the computer calculator I used to crunch those numbers because I'm too stupid to figure that math out myself. It's a what? Oh my gosh, a Navi just popped up from the water. What's that nameless blue smurf friend? Oh, thank you. He's saying you should subscribe to the channel. Adam does movies right here so that you don't miss any of the commentary or reviews I put out every single week. Thanks. Oh my god, what's he doing with his tail? Let's keep going. James Cameron started in the industry doing math paintings and he rose the ranks on skill. That is a rarity in Hollywood today. He's only done one flop and that was Piranha 3D, not really his fault. He got thrown into that shit. But then he would go on to make money hand over a dick going forward with films like The Terminator, The Abyss, Terminator 2, Judgment Day, True Lies, a tiny indie film called Titanic, and of course Avatar, the highest-grossing film of all time, Full Stop. We're talking worldwide here, baby. Now the interesting thing about this number, if numbers could be interesting, which they're not, is two-thirds of that revenue is international, meaning America isn't near as important as, say, China or some of these other countries. So the guy has an impeccable track record. Great. What else can he bring to the table? Well, besides the fact that he invented a lot of these undersea cameras and he knows the long-term goals of all this shit, taking years or decades even to see his vision come to life and he will stop at nothing short of perfection to achieve his goal, I mean, I don't know what else he has going for him. So sarcasm aside, let's get down to brass tacks. I have concerns about this movie. Now, if you would have asked me just a couple of years back, if I thought Avatar 2 would do huge numbers, I would have said, yeah, absolutely. In Cameron, we trust. In fact, I probably did tweet that out at some point. I don't think that anymore, and it has nothing to do with my lack of confidence in the man or the brilliance of this movie. Now, I should also point out I'm a big fan of Avatar, the original, not because it has a brilliant story. I don't think anyone would say it does. It has a competent story. I think it's too long, and I think it's tough to watch at home. This is a movie experience everyone should have on the big screen. It's a ride. You put on the 3D glasses. You are in the world of Pandora. You are with all these cool Navi creatures, running up trees, dodging bullets, and having a great time. But when you get that experience at home and you have your miserable family and your children and your wife yelling at you and the microwaves going off because the popcorn's burnt and you're two and a half hours into this picture wondering when you can end it all. Most people also don't have 3D glasses and a massive screen to watch the event on with blackout windows and some cool floor lighting and surround sound. It's just not the same. And of course, every movie is going to pale a little bit in comparison to that magical moment in the theater. But Avatar truly misses a massive amount of its charm when watched at home. In fact, I've tried watching Avatar several times at home and I don't think I ever get through the whole thing. But if I were to see that in theaters again, oh man, would it be fun. Not a lot of movies hit that same way. The only other one actually that springs to mind right out of the gates is Gravity with Sandra Bullock. And that was another movie that was very much the IMAX experience with those 3D glasses. You just have to have that level of immersion to really appreciate it. It really is like a ride. All of these things I'm saying right now are very much a factor of why I'm concerned about the sequel. I have a numbered list. Let's get to the first of five points. Number one and a very big one, theaters are struggling. Now they did have a wet hot summer and that was mainly because Tom Cruise carried the whole movie industry on his shoulders. Because Maverick was such a massive success. I don't think anyone saw that coming. Yeah, of course, Tom Cruise pulls in numbers. But my God, that was a huge film. It was also a badass film, which helps. It appeals to a massive audience of people. Avatar, by comparison, yeah, domestically it does well. But here in the States, you ask anybody about Avatar. A lot of them don't even remember the first movie outside of there was giant blue people in it. And it was a cool movie to watch in the big screen. I've talked to several friends and neighbors who didn't even know the sequel was coming out this week. That's not good. That's not good. But back to the theaters, people are not going to films like they were a couple years back. Obviously COVID played a huge part of that. It kept people home. The rise in streaming is destroying theaters, amongst other things. But that's really the biggest caveat keeping people home is the comfort, the luxury of staying in their own place. They all have brand new TVs. They all have surround sound. Plus there's a good chunk of films that are doing day one releases, both tandem theater streaming exclusives such as the Halloween films. Why is this happening? You are burying theaters with moves like this. You are training the audience to think that oh well in a week or two this will be at home much like what's going on with Glass Onion. They give it like a two week window in the theaters. What are you doing Netflix? We've been seeing more and more articles pop up about how AMC is filing from bankruptcy. They can't pay their bills. Or this theater chain is closing down or on the verge of closing down. They're only at 17% capacity. How much longer can this go on? That's a good question. On an anecdotal level, my local theater one of one that I have within a like two hour driving range has six urinals. Only one of them works. The others are all broken. I don't know how. I can't imagine what scenario took place that would destroy all of these. But there's some real tasteful caution tape or plastic bags on top of them. Real tasteful, real classy stuff. They've been broken for four months now. When I started going to this movie six months ago, they were all working. Now, it's possible we could chalk it up to bad management. I know the manager, she seems lovely. She seems like she's got her shit together. The more realistic explanation, they don't have money. Number two is kind of a piggyback off number one. I alluded to it already. Streaming has taken over. People don't care to go to the theater anymore. Why would they? They have most of the comforts at home without dealing with the douchebags at the big screen. Disney itself seems hell bent on not only destroying theaters but the movie industry in general by releasing garbage after garbage film with some of the worst writing, terrible performances, and actors who don't even look like they want to be there outside of getting a paycheck and moving on. The budgets are garbage. The quality is mediocre at best. And they shit this stuff out every week. Like it's nothing. Because at the end of the day it kind of is nothing. You feel dead inside watching it and when it's over, you forgot what you just saw. Number three, which piggybacks off what I was saying at number two, people are shittier now. This is only coming from a person who was around for 40 years and most of that time wasn't spent in the theater. But from the 90s to today, the level of respect of decorum has gone out the goddamn window. I believe there was a time before I was going when you would head to the Cineplex and it was kind of a regal event. You would dress up in your Sunday best. You would get your popcorn. There would be an usher that would take you to the seat. The movie would start up with the characters. Let's all go to the lobby. Let's all go to the lobby. There would be brief intermissions where people would politely discuss the film and what was happening. Now, fast forward to today. It's a massive commercialized dumpster fire where it costs $7 for a soda and you don't even get a handy at the end. Instead, you're treated to a three-hour clusterfuck that you can't escape because there's no intermission anymore. We got to keep these movies going so we can put them back to back to back. You got to play the movie as many times as you can in a 24-hour period so you can recoup some of that loss. People don't wear their Sunday best anymore. They come in pajamas. They have onesies. They have snuggies. They have blankets and pillows. And you better believe they're not afraid to chat it up with their bestie during a pinnacle scene in the film like they're having a goddamn sleepover. Tammy in the front row just set up her TikTok account and she's live streaming the movie as it's going. Don't worry, guy, in the way back row trying to watch the big screen. Just check out Tammy's little shitty one because she's got her opacity. She's got her brightness at 100% still. I've had not one but three people vaping during the movie. Vaping during the movie. What is happening anymore? And you think the geniuses they have work in the concessions give a shit? Nah, fam. They're making $8 an hour and they can't wait for their shift to be over. There used to be a time where I really wanted to work at a theater because I loved movies. I couldn't wait to talk about movies to people that would come in to get to see them early. Now when I go to the theater, these people working there don't even know what movies are playing. Movie goers today are rude. They're dirty. They're smelly. They're chatty. They're basically snow white in the seven douchebags. So of course people don't want to rush out to see a movie when they know the experience could very likely be ruined. Number four, and this is another big one. Avatar had a huge hook when it came out in 2009. It was in 3D. It was James Cameron's next big movie after Titanic. It was a huge world event that everyone had to rush out to see in theaters so they didn't feel left out. It's kind of like not owning Elton John's Candle in the Wind single for Princess Diana. If you didn't have it, you felt like you kind of killed a part of her yourself. That was a very deep cut. Subscribe for deep cuts. So what's the hook for Avatar the Way of the Water? The updated effects? That's not enough. Is this movie in 3D? 4D? 8D? What are you doing Cameron? I have not seen a single trailer or commercial that has told me if this movie requires glasses to watch. I haven't been told that this is an experience you have to see in theaters. They should be marketing this better. They should be saying if you want to be on the right side of history get your dumb ass to the theater, plop down 10 bucks and get a movie experience like no other. One that you can tell your grandkids about someday. When they're in their hover cars, watching the Back to the Future remake on their eyeball lens. And number five, maybe the most critical and depressing one of them all, I think I might have mentioned it earlier, James Cameron's kind of nervous. This guy was a god amongst mortal men at one point announcing he's the king of the world when he received one of his many Oscars for Titanic. Now he's even saying yeah, I'm looking at this. The movie has to be one of the top grossing films of all time to even like break even or make some money back because we spent a dumb amount of money on this thing. So it has to return a huge investment. We have to recoup some of these funds we put in. Otherwise we're in trouble and we're probably not gonna get Avatar 3, 4 and 5. We might just get Avatar 3 the end? At one interview at one point he said, yeah, we might have a 30% drop in revenue. That's brutal because he sees what's going on in the world. He knows things are not like they were when Avatar 2009 came out. I do not put a video out like this lightly. It's not to be smug. It's not to look back on and say I told you because I don't know anything. I just have that gut feeling and it's not good. Again, I've defended this sequel for many years. I'm a huge fan of James Cameron. I've done extensive research on the guy for a mini documentary I put out a couple years back. Maybe it was last year on a screen rant how Avatar changed the world. I stand by that video. It's fantastic. You should watch. Regardless, I also see what's going on in the world much like Cameron and it's not painting a good picture for theaters and it's certainly not painting a good picture for Avatar the way of the water. People have moved on since the first film. A lot of them instantaneously because it was that amusement park ride. You got the high. You went to it a couple times because it was so fun. But after going on even the best roller coaster it starts to lose its luster. The fear starts to go away. The excitement starts to go down. The energy is not there. So trying to recapture the roller coaster again but not even putting in a new hook like this one's higher. It drops further or it goes in reverse. People don't have the reason to go out and see it and I think that's exactly the problem here. I fear this movie is going to do bad numbers. Bomb? I guess because it has to make so much money. Financially speaking I think it's going to put up solid numbers but for Avatar's sake it's not going to do what they need it to. That's my prediction. I hope I'm wrong but I see what's going on. I'm reading the tea leaves and they're not reading like a good book. Let me know in the comments below what you think is going to happen. Like the video if you had a good time. Again please subscribe if you haven't. I post tons of movie related rants and reviews every single week. I'd love to see you stick around. You're helping for the best. Take care. That was a fun passionate rant wasn't it? If you want to see me do other things that are a little lighter and sillier check out my second brand new channel Adam After Dark. It's a skit based channel. They're two to four minute comedy routines. I would really appreciate your help sharing that channel around telling your friend telling your mom of course she's a big fan I'm sure and yeah we can just grow this thing and it's going to be great. You can also find me on Patreon at patreon.com slash Adam Does Movies. If you really are a fan of the channel you can give a dollar five there. I'm also on YouTube Join. You can join become a member. There's lots of ways to support it. It's a one man operation and it's a passion project much like Avatar. I want it to succeed.