 In the last class of this week, we had discussed certain aspects of three weather course. In this class, we like to discuss the crop production risk and their management. Here, in the last week, we had a discussion about climate and weather. Now, I like to focus on these two terminologies which refers to crops. The climate of a particular area selects a particular crop to come up very well. So, climate is major like a umbrella. It selects a particular crop. For example, apple in temperate countries. So, selection of a particular crop is done by the climate. The apple may not come in the plant areas of semi-arid climate or arid climate or subhumid climate. So, the climate selects a particular crop and the production of the selected crop is influenced by the weather that prevails within the climate. So, this is the climate. Here, you have the weather. Climate selects the weather influences productivity. So, under open conditions, there is greater risk for crop production. I can say that we will be discussing about weather variability, rainfall variability. If you examine the parameter rainfall and the temperature, the weather variability with reference rainfall would be more than 30% coefficient of variation. First, in the case of the temperature, it must be lesser than 20% CV. The variability is very greater for rainfall. So, as a result, the production is getting varied. That I call it as a risk. Since we cannot control whether it is beyond the human control, whether it cannot be controlled or your climate cannot be controlled. It is all beyond our control. We have to adapt to this climate and weather. For that, we have to do certain strategies. Now, crop production risk must be defined. According to economics, risk is defined as the quantum of physical, I say physical output. Against 3 tons per hectare, we get 1 ton per hectare. So, physical loss. Against 10,000 rupees, we get 2,000 rupees. So, risk is defined as the quantum of physical and economical crop production losses with events. May be drought, may be flood, that are the events of probability in occurrence. What is the probability of occurring drought? May be 40% in a particular area, may be 90% in a particular area. There are two terminologies with reference to drought. The drought prune area, another one is drought affected area. In the case of the drought prune area, it is endemic area for drought. Always drought, nothing. So, the production is always loss. But in the case of the drought affected area, drought may visit once in 4 years, 3 years. Those has to be predicted and we have to manage very well to reduce the crop production risk. Based on our knowledge and literature knowledge, the crop production risks are divided into inherited risk, transferable risk and crop management risk and is given as risk that can be minimized through technology introduction. So, inherited risk, transferable risk and crop management risk. Let us examine one by one. Now, the inherited risk, I have given some examples. Inherited, it exists over years, over generations. Generation means normally in India we take 20 years. Over-over generation may be 7th generation or 8th generation or historically more than 1000 years. The soil is either sodium or saline or marginal. So, inherited, it cannot be changed. If you want to change these risk, you have to spend more. Can be changed through technology but it is not cost effective. It is highly cost. So, the crop production loss with this inherited risk would be 30% for this example that is saline soil, sodium soil or marginal soil. Then another one is drain land agriculture risk. As we discussed earlier, drain land depends on rainfall. If rain have different mode of operation, you may have continuous wet spills, you may have continuous dry spills or you may have intermittent dry spills between two wet spills. So, these are going to affect your crop production. So, drain land agriculture, you have inherited risk of 40% unless it is being brought under irrigation through your river linking process. Anumanda Rao and the professor Sawaminathan in their committees, they have recommended that river linking must be given to drain land area so as to bring higher production to solve the food related problems. So, those have to be thought very well. Then another one is conventional forming risk. Conventional forming risk means resource poor farmers, they go for lower input because of their results that also carries some quantity of risk that is 30%. So, soil related risk also inherited risk, it carries 30% crop production loss, drain land agriculture risk is also inherited risk that carries 40% crop production loss. Conventional forming risk also inherited risk that carries 30% yield loss. Then coming to the transferable risk, the risk can be transferred. For example, I am with risk, I want to transfer my risk to my wife or my mother or something else. So, she takes care of that risk and manages very well. In the case of the agriculture, the transferable risk is going for crop insurance. The farmers considering the weather risk, they go for insurance register by themselves paying some premium. They transfer the risk to the other companies or other organization. One is drought that carries the crop production loss 60% to 100%. Another one is flood 100%, flood means 100% yield loss. Then dry spell more than 15 days based on the crop stages 40% to 60%. Wet spell more than 50 days 60% to 80%. First and disease outbreak 30% to 40%. Cyclone 80% to 100%. Heil storm 60% abnormal wind speed banana sugarcane that we discussed last week 80% to 100%. These are all transferable risk, you can register with the crop insurance company so that this risk could be minimized properly. And the third one is your crop management risk or risk can be minimized by technology introduction. So, if you want to, don't want to go for non-adoption of timely sowing. For example, in India it is being sown by your November. If you sow by December means your yield will be is going to affected by the weather commonance. So, this carries a 30% crop protection loss. Poor wheat control nobody bothers let it comes then the yield loss would be 30%. Non-adoption of plant protection as a thing you say that I don't want to adopt plant protection. Let the pest comes and go whatever get I will harvest. This carries about 30% crop protection loss and unsustainable soil fertility management. We are not properly applying balanced fertilizer or the recommended fertilizer. Then automatically it carries a crop protection loss of 30%. Now, how to manage this risk? We were knowing about three types of risk, inherited risk, transferable risk and your crop protection management risk. So, inherited risk means it is already existing over you and historically it is there. So, if you want to improve it go for land improvement it is much expensive. Then transferable risk you are registering yourself for your insurance company and also you take some weather based form decisions. That is very limited through contingency plan when we were discussing about your weather codes I was saying that contingency planning that also can be done in the absence of the crop insurance program but may not be successful you must go for crop insurance for having the transferable risk and the crop protection risk you have to go for integrated crop management. Integrated pest management, integrated weed management, integrated water management. Why not all components of the crop protection management must be adopted so that this quantity of risk can be minimized we cannot avoid 100% risk. We can reduce the risk that is the strategy I have given here. Thank you very much. This is very important class. See crop protection risk because for taking weather based agro advisories you have to consider the crop protection risk at the greatest level. So, we will be discussing some more things in the next class. Thank you very much.