 All right, everybody, how's it going? Lilo here from smartoptionseller.com. Welcome to another edition of our Saturday Synopsis. What do we do on Saturdays here? We look at the charts, we look at indexes, we look at individual stocks, we look at moving averages, we look at technical indicators. We look at support and resistance levels and we look for chart patterns. This is my way of showing you all what I've been doing for the last 30 years and how I make trades and what I base my trades on. This is all about technical analysis. I look at the charts and the charts tell me when it's time to get in and or out of a trade. This is what I do and I make these videos to try to help you become a better trader yourself. If you're looking for a way to figure out, hey, when should I get into a trade or when should I get out of a trade or how do I know when a balance is for real or when the next bear market is going to happen? Well, for me, it's all about looking at the charts. And why is that? It's because all, I believe, in my opinion, all the information that is available about a specific company, all that underlying data, the earnings, the sales, revenue, dividends, PE ratios, all that stuff, sure, you can look at, but it all gets factored into the price of the stock. And the price of that stock moves in a certain direction and the way to tell which way the stock is going is by looking at a stock chart and looking at the history of the stock and seeing where it's headed and how it bounces off of certain areas and where the support and resistance lies. And the charts tells me everything I need to know. So it helps me to decide when or what stock to get in and when to get into that stock. And so what I try to do here on these Saturday videos is show you what I see on the charts and try to help you understand why technical analysis, in my opinion, is a really good way to help you figure out when is a good time to get in or out of the trade. So let's just jump in and do what we typically do. We always look at the general market as a whole and as represented by the S&P 500. 500 stocks, I believe it's the broader measure of the market as a whole. And we look at the SPY, which is the exchange traded fund for the S&P 500. It's very liquid, trades just like a stock, lots of volume. So it really gives you a good idea which way the market as a whole is headed, okay? So what you see in front of you is the charts that I look at. And I'm a daily chart guy, look at daily bar charts. And what does that mean? Well, each vertical line here on the chart is one day's worth of trading. And I can see about two years worth of trading on my screen here. And I'm very simple, I only use a few technical indicators and I show this every week because we got new people watching these videos every week. And for those of you who do watch me all the time, I know it's a little repetitive, but I like to make sure everyone understands what we're doing, especially for the new people. So on the charts, I have three moving averages. I have a 20 day moving average, a 50 day moving average and a 200 day moving average. These are all simple moving averages. Down here is the RSI indicator. It is an overbought, oversold indicator. I use the 80 level and the 20 level to help me decide when a stock is overbought or oversold or getting into overbought or oversold levels. And that helps me gauge where a bounce may happen or where a pullback may happen up in here in the price action. And those are really the only indicators that I use. Over the 30 years I've tried lots of different indicators and these are the ones that have helped me the most. You are more than welcome to try any other indicator you'd like, Bollinger bands, Fibonacci numbers. You can even use candlesticks. Candlesticks is another way of looking at the movement. These are, this is the open, high, low close bars. I can change this to candlesticks. Candlesticks shows you with a green and red representation of where and how a majority of the move of that specific day occurred. Some people like candlesticks. I don't use candlesticks. Doesn't mean that it's wrong or right. It's just what I've been using. So what I really like to see on a chart is, and most of the time we're bullish at the smart option seller, we look for bullish trades. So we're always looking for stocks with nice upward momentum that are pulling back to a support area and ready to go into their next leg higher. And I say this every week. I say that most stocks move on momentum and they trend in the same direction until something comes along and moves it in a different direction. And an event like that is typically an earnings announcement or some kind of FDA or government announcement or some other kind of geopolitical event that just comes out of the blue that no one can prepare for just like the pandemic. But so in between earnings, which are every three months, most stocks will continue on in a trajectory where it has been trading in. And so we like to concentrate most of our trades in between those earnings announcements, about three months. So we get a couple of months worth of price action and then we get out of the trade and then we start all over again after the earnings announcement. But we like to see a nice upwards momentum market and all these patterns that you see here, these lines, these are things that I've drawn in the past to help me figure out which way the stock or index is moving. Now, this is the S&P 500, this blue line along here and this blue line along here is a channel. This is something that I've drawn. I can remove these so you can see what it looks like without that. Right here was another channel, was a downtrending channel. So we can remove these and I can show you what a chart looks like and I can take this off. These have been on for a long period of time. So I have these other, this is a W pattern, triangle wedge patterns, but you can see the S&P 500 has had this nice move higher. And a way that you can help yourself is by drawing these trend lines where you can connect the bottoms of certain days and you can connect the tops and you can create this pattern. Now this is what's called a channel and the S&P 500 has been bouncing along in this channel where when it comes down to the bottom of the channel it typically bounces when it gets to the top, it typically drops, but it's still in a nice upwards drive. Okay, even though it's bouncing off the bottom, it's still moving higher along its way. Now, on September 1st, we entered into this short downtrending channel mostly due to seasonal factors. I've been talking about this in the prior videos. September, August, September, part of October typically bearish for the market, it's just seasonal. And then November, December, very bullish. As you can see, the market was in a nice uptrend, got into this little downtrend and then it just, it made its blast out and it's continuing to move higher. I'm bullish, I've been bullish, been saying that in these videos every week, bullish through the end of the year. There's really nothing to hold the market back. Yes, we have these inflation numbers, the supply constraints, but the market doesn't seem to care too much about that because we're always looking into the future. The market looks into the future. Earnings announcements have been pretty good. Companies are still making money. Maybe they're making a little less due to the pandemic, due to the supply constraints, but their forward guidance is still pretty good. They're looking optimistic into the future and that's what the stock market does. It always looks forward, always optimistic. And remember, the stock market is made up of actual companies that have actual profits and if those profits are growing every quarter, the stock price has to follow it along. So we're bullish into the end of the year and what we try to do is figure out when we wanna get into a trade, we look at the chart, we wanna see a stock that's moving upwards or if it has a pullback, we wanna see if it's ready to bounce at some point. Now, this is where we were last Saturday right around here. Stock market was making all-time new highs. I had mentioned last Saturday that this was a pretty powerful move in the last couple of weeks. There could be, although I'm still bullish, we probably needed to see a little bit of a pullback. Some kind of healthy profit-taking slowdown in this massive quick move higher. That's the way the market moves. When you get these quick up moves, the down moves can sometimes be sharp and violent. We don't like that, but a nice controlled down move is well-needed and healthy for the market and this is what happened this week. We had this little bit of a pullback Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, right here, pulled back from all-time highs and yesterday, Friday, today is Saturday, November 13th, I don't know if I mentioned that earlier on, but yesterday, Friday, November 12th, we had a good update in the market. So we pulled back a little. Now, I don't know, this could be the end of the pullback. Typically, I was waiting to see if it could pull back to at least the 20-day moving average, which is the blue line right here. We may not get that pullback. It may just continue on higher from here until the end of the year. So for those of you that were waiting for a pullback to get in, to get long, this may have been the pullback. This is all we got. Next week, we will see where it wants to go, but into the end of the year, I'm very bullish. I would have liked to have seen a little bit more of a pullback this week, but the bulls are strong and these three days is maybe all that we got. So we'll see. So that's the S&P 500. We got a nice little pullback in the RSI, so it came off some of these more overbought levels, came down a little bit, but it may start to travel up again. So we'll see. Let's take a look at the NASDAQ, which we look at the triple cues to give us an idea of how the NASDAQ is doing. As you can see, it's been moving higher just like the S&P 500, and I have these triangle patterns drawn, these wedges, resistance areas, channels. So all these things to help me figure out when the next move may occur. When you have this kind of ascending flat top triangle here, you can see it's got an upward slant and it was finding resistance here, couldn't break out until it finally broke out. This is more of a bullish pattern and when it breaks out, it will continue on. Then we get this symmetrical triangle where the ranges get tighter and tighter and tighter and it's building up all the energy for the next move higher, for the next move I should say, it could blast lower or it could blast higher. Typically it'll keep moving in the same direction from where it came. So it blasted higher, had the resistance here, came down, came back up, finally blasted through it, had the downtrending channel in September and now we're back off to the races. So over the long run, the market continues to go higher. That's just how the market works. You got companies that are doing well, creating profits, selling products. Over time, you can't hold the market back. You'll get the pullbacks, but you won't get a full-on bear market. Now the pandemic was very rare. It was quick, violent, but it recovered very quickly. So even in the face of a pandemic like that and we have conflicts overseas and we had the 2008, 2009 meltdowns, we can look back here. Here's 2008, 2009. It looks very small compared to where we are now, but that came back pretty quickly and look where we are now. Now I know the central governments around the world, the central banks around the world have all held interest rates really low. That's been part of what's helping the market go up, but still stock companies are still creating profits or having profits from the products they make. So the stock price has to follow. Stock market's been the greatest wealth generator for the last 100, 200 years. You gotta be involved. And so we're always looking for bullish action and waiting for these pullbacks to get into the next leg higher. And that's what we do. So that's the NASDAQ, that's the S&P 500. I'm bullish until the end of the year. This may be the little bit of a pullback that we get and the next leg higher may just keep going until the end of the year. So that's what I'm seeing. Let's take a look at the Dow Jones and we can look at the Diamonds, the DIA. This is the exchange traded fund that tracks the Dow Jones. All-time new highs made last week as well. Had the little pullback, this one pulled back a little closer to the 20-day moving average here, the blue line right here. So eventually I think it's gonna follow the other two markets and it's just gonna keep moving higher. The Dow traded over 36,000 for the first time. Recently, last week, and things are looking good. I mean, there's really nothing to stop this market in the long run. Temporarily, yeah, we may have a pullback or two, but we have to look at that as more of a buying opportunity. Okay, so let's take a quick look at some individual stocks as we do every week, see what they've been doing, see what we can glean and see where some of these stocks may be headed in the future. We typically end up looking at most of the same stocks over time because these are the popular, very liquid, highly traded, lots of volume stocks. And we can just use those as examples with the patterns that they make. Well, let's take a look at Tesla first because that one's got a lot of action, had a lot of action. We've been talking about Tesla. Tesla was in this uptrending channel and just started to blast higher. In the last two weeks or so I've been saying at some point Tesla is going to pull back. It has to drop at some point. The RSI was just massively, massively overbought and gravity takes over at some point and stocks cannot keep going up vertically like this forever. There's a point where it has to come down and the down moves are pretty violent. So you can see just this past week, Tesla lost about $250 a year. That's a big move in just a couple of days for Tesla. I mean, it went up and it's given some of it back. And Tesla finished just below the 220 day moving average here. I mean, this was nice. We shook off a lot of the froth, a lot of the bullishness, the overboughtness, shook off, now we're back into the 50 level here. Right in the middle of the range, that's good. So we may find some equilibrium here for Tesla. Got out, we knocked off $250 of the share price. So maybe it'll consolidate here and get ready for the next leg higher. Not sure if it'll come down to the 50 day moving average here or come back down to the uptrending channel line. That'd be another, about another $200 more dollars. That'd be a pretty big move. Could happen, but my guess is that Tesla's probably gonna consolidate around the $1,000 level probably get its bearings again before it's next leg higher. Part of the move down might have been Elon Musk talking about selling some of his shares, which I think he did this past week. He's gotta take out some money. At some point you gotta take some money out of the market. It says he's got a big tax bill, he's gotta pay. So maybe he does. But anyway, this was a good move. This was a good move down. If you had bought up here, I mean, it's unfortunate, but you need to be aware. That's why looking at the charts can help you. If you saw this massive overbought area, you shouldn't have been buying up here. You wait for the pullback, wait for the froth to get taken out in the RSI back to more normal levels. That's why I think we'll probably consolidate here before the next leg higher. So that's Tesla. Let's take a look at Apple. Apple's still kind of meandering. I've been saying Apple's chart is very ugly. You know, it's still in an uptrend, but there's big moves up and down. It would be nice if it was had that nice, slow uptrending move like the S&P 500, but Apple's had these pretty wild swings. So where are we now with Apple? Right around $150 a share right here. What I like this week is that it's finding support right on the 50-day moving average, which is, you know, this is the 50-day moving average, this line right here. So it's finding support right here. And it looks like it can't pop through down through it. So I think it's gonna find the support here and then continue on its journey higher into the end of the year. That's what I'm thinking for Apple. In our smart options seller, we have one of our newsletters, our spread newsletter. We sell put option spreads. These are bullish trades. Got into a trade on Apple last week. And, you know, even if a stock trade sideways, that's good for us. Like to see it move up. But I think Apple is consolidating here and getting ready for the next move higher. So that's Apple. Let's take a look at Amazon. Another major player for sure. Amazon's been in this channel for very, very long time since last, you know, July, August, 2020, in this range from about $2,900 up to $36, $3,700. Yes, that is a large range for sure, but it's been contained. And it just can't seem to blast outwards and up out of the resistance for more than, I mean, it did here. This was a false signal. I mean, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, it's not a guarantee. It's not 100% that it's gonna work every single time. But by using technical analysis, you can find these higher probability setups. That's what you're looking for when you're looking at charts is for higher probability setups. If you don't look at charts, you have no idea where stock is in the midst of its downtrend or uptrend. You don't know whether your timing is right or could be better if you haven't looked at a chart. That's why we look at the charts to help time our entry and exits a little bit better. But Amazon's still kind of stuck in this channel. You know, until we really get to see this thing blast higher, I have no say in Amazon right now. There's really nothing that's compelling me to get into an Amazon trade. Let's take a look at AMD. The chip sector has been doing, well, certain stocks I should say, has been doing very well. AMD and we'll look at Nvidia, but this has just been a power move higher. This is, when I talk about a vertical move higher, this is almost as vertical as you can get. And that means it's just going straight up in the air. And I'm surprised that it wasn't in the overbought area longer than it was. Had a little blip higher, came back a little. AMD had a little bit of a pullback, but I don't know if we're gonna get any more of a pullback. I would have liked to seen it pullback to at least this 20 day moving average. But AMD's strong. Let's look at Nvidia real quick because it's in the same sector. Same thing with Nvidia. Had this like vertical move higher, was in overbought, had a little bit of pullback. Now, this is what could be ramping up to be what's called a bull flag. A bull flag is a very bullish pattern. Let me draw it out for you. So what you do is you have the long one day bar like this, and let me edit this a little bit so you can see it better. And widen it out a little bit, okay? So that's the flagpole. That's what's called the flagpole. And then you have the pennant part, which is the actual flag. Let me make this a little wider as well. One more there. And then we'll do the bottom. You've got the other part of the pennant. Edit this thing. Little manual labor. Never heard anybody. All right, so here's what we got. This is what's called a bull flag. You've got the long flagpole, the little bit of a down trending flag part here. And the next move outside of the flag should be to the upside. If you do your Google search on chart patterns and you look up a bull flag pennant or bull flag pattern, you'll see something that looks like this. Kind of looks like an F a little bit. And typically once it's done trading in the little, within the pennant here, it should pop up to the upside because it came from down below. It's still in a bullish move, consolidating and getting ready for the next leg higher. So keep an eye on AMD. I mean, for NVIDIA, for the bull flag. Let's see if AMD is making any kind of bull flag like that. You know, it's not as pronounced as NVIDIA, but it had the long move up. Yeah, it's not as pronounced as NVIDIA, but it could track NVIDIA's movement if NVIDIA starts to go up. If they all, they may all start to go up in tandem. Now Intel, same sector, but Intel hasn't been doing that good. I've been saying for the last few years, I like AMD a lot better than Intel. Intel's just been kind of caught in this downtrend. It had the earnings drop here, big gap here. Came back a little bit, but it's this past week was another down move. So Intel, I'm not so gung-ho on. I'd rather play AMD, but AMD's still a little bit too rich for me at the moment. You know, I would have liked to see a little more pullback. It may not happen. I may not even get an opportunity to get into AMD, but you know, I watched the charts. It was well oversold. I would have liked to see a little bit more pullback here. So maybe we'll get that next week, or maybe not, we'll see. What other stocks do we have? Let's take a look at Disney because we had been looking at Disney before earnings came out. So let's move this back here. So before earnings came out, we had been talking about Disney had this support like right around $169, $170. It'd been trying to, all the sellers have been trying to get it through this $170 level. Just couldn't do it. And then earnings came out this week the other day and now we got the gap lower. So here's Thursday and Friday trading this week. So it dropped below this long-term support and now it's trading down here. What's Disney's next move? Well, it'll probably consolidate down here a little bit before people realize, you know what? Maybe $160 a share is good value for Disney. We'll start to buy it back up. But until then, I'm not sure I've got anything to do on Disney. I may look at some downside put options down here see if they're worth selling. You know, we sell put options here as well, but we also wanna make sure we're selling them on good companies and companies that are almost ready to start to move back higher because they are bullish types of trades selling put options, all right? So that's what we see Disney. Keep an eye on Disney. Let's see what other stocks I have on the list here. The pharmaceuticals, I love the sector. Eli Lilly, Bristol Myers came down. We had a trade on Bristol Myers not that long ago. We got into a trade on Merck. We sold some put options on Merck. Had the move higher after Merck came out with their COVID pill that's in the trials with the FDA here in the US. When Pfizer came out with their version of the pill that's when Merck dropped. We decided to get it in here on when it found support on the 20 day moving average. So we sold some puts when Merck was around here. And so it's hanging around there pretty good. I have a feeling that Merck will eventually start to move back higher. Let's take a quick look at Netflix because we got into a trade with Netflix this week. We sold a put spread on Netflix and let's take a quick run. So Netflix had been in this nice little uptrending channel and when it had pulled back to the support near the 20 day moving average and to the lower end of the channel, we said, okay, let's get in. So we sold a put spread a couple of days ago when it was right on the bottom edge of the channel here, the bottom edge of the channel. And look what Netflix did yesterday, Friday, November 12th. It went up $25 a share. Here's the net gain for the day where my mouse is up $25 a share. That's a big move for Netflix. So we caught the bottom at least for now on Netflix is a good timing for us. Went up $25 a share. So that helps our put spread, our bullish put spread. It's all about looking for patterns, looking for where the bounces may occur. Those are what I call the higher probability setups. That's what you wanna look for. To show you what I mean on the downside, not buying stocks when they're in a downtrend, Verizon. This is Verizon's cell phone carrier in a downtrend. I like Verizon because it's the largest wireless carrier in the US and it's dominant. But the stock chart is telling me it's not time to get in yet. I use this example all the time. You don't wanna buy a stock when it's in a downtrend. Why? Because it could continue in that downtrend. And if you bought it, you're just gonna be frustrated and you may decide to sell out and you may sell out at the bottom. You just never know, but it'll be frustrating for you to get into a bullish trade when it's still in a downtrend because most likely it's still going to move lower. And why spend your money on something that's gonna move lower? For me, I need to see Verizon trade in a clear uptrending pattern before I decide to get long Verizon. And I've been saying that's probably in this $54 to $55 range so it can, once it pops above this downtrending channel. I'm not buying it when it's down here. You can try to pick bottoms if you want. If you wanna try to pick bottoms, you know, buy a few shares, that's up to you. It may work, it may not, it may keep going lower. But I like to see confirmed up moves before I get in. Yeah, I won't be able to buy the bottom but I'd rather wait for the confirmation where it should probably continue to go up and then I'll just be happier because my trade will work for me. Picking bottoms, you just never know. It could be very frustrating. Another stock, let me show you, this is Micron. So now Micron has been in this nice downtrending channel and it looks like in the last couple of days it may have made its move outside of the downtrending channel. So what you do is you can go back a few months, connect some of the tops and extend the line, okay? You can connect the bottom, so here's Micron's channel and look at what happened this week. Just the last couple of days, it's popped outside and above the downtrending channel. It's above the 20 day, above the 50 day moving average. I like Micron here. I think this could be the time or at least the area where I think if I can see it, you know, trade a little more sideways and start to get this, you know, this uptrending, a little bit more uptrend going outside of the line here, then I'd be more comfortable putting on a bullish trade on Micron. I like this, I've been watching it for a while and I think this could be it. This could be the move that gets it finally starting to move seriously back to the upside. So keep an eye on Micron. One other one, Clorox. We talk about Clorox a lot in here. You can see these channels that I drew from the pandemic, Clorox just went up and then last summer, July, 2020, it just started this long downtrend. Now it's been in this sideways channel. You know, maybe Clorox has found its bottom here, but I wouldn't touch this thing until it got above the resistance line and maybe above this downtrending 200 day moving average. So at least it has to get above 180 and stay above 180 for a while for me to decide, okay, Clorox is making that move outside of the downtrending channel. Any other stocks that we can look at here? Let's see, PayPal had, so there's some good down moves recently. PayPal had the gap lower this week. You see the air pocket here. So now PayPal's got a little oversold on the R side. What's gonna happen here? PayPal is gonna have to meander, try to carve out its bottom. That's what happens after a big move. It has to consolidate. People have to figure out what could be the next move. So it'll probably trade around here a little bit, maybe a little lower, but it'll start carving out a bottom here and then eventually it should probably start to move back higher. So keep an eye on PayPal. Is it time to get in yet? If you wanna try to pick a bottom here, I like to wait for a little more confirmation. Same thing that happened with Snap. We sold put options on Snap in the last week or so, had a huge gap, made this descending wedge pattern, which is typically bullish, was got oversold here and we had the divergence. Price action was going lower, but the RSI was moving up. That's usually a bullish divergence meeting and the price actions should start to go up. So we sold some put options there. What other stocks? Peloton was another one that got hit pretty hard. You can see these big down moves start to, they usually make the same pattern. You got a big gap lower. You have this long one day and then it starts to make the little ascending or descending pattern here wedge. RSI gets oversold. So eventually it consolidates, it finds the support and then eventually it should start to go back up. When do you get in? Like I said, you can try to pick a bottom, maybe buy a few shares before the actual confirmation, but you wanna see the stock starting to really make support and it's moved back higher before you wanna go full force into it. Okay, so we watch these. I like stocks when they have a big gap lower, especially on a real quality stock because you know the stock's not gonna stay down for long. So when a real stalwart quality stock has a big gap like this lower, we like to pounce and we like to sell put options not here but we sell put options strike prices way down here as well. So that's what we do. Let me take a quick look here, see if there's any other stocks of note. eBay was another stock that we got into. We sold put options on eBay a week or two ago. When did we do it? When it bounced right on the bottom of the uptrending channel right around here. I think that's when we got in and it's gone up. It's come back down a little bit but it's still in the upwards movement. So I like eBay here. I'm hoping that it's, you know, if it comes down a little bit more, hoping it'll bounce off the bottom leg and start to move up again. So these are the things we look at. Here's a little that flagpole pattern I showed you before and it did go up. Obviously it came back down but it's still in the upwards momentum. Nothing's guaranteed, not 100%. That's why we like to sell put options out of the money, put options because it gives us a lot of room for error. If we're wrong in our directional assessment, selling put options way out of the money, which is what we do, gives us a lot of cushion for directional error. And that's a good thing. We like that. We're not trying to predict where stocks gonna go. We're more trying to predict where stock won't go. It's a different philosophy and that's why we sell out of the money, put options. All right, so that's really about it for the lesson today. Once again, let's take a look at the SPY. You know, I'm bullish. I'm bullish through the end of the year. I would have liked to see it a little bit more of a pullback. Maybe we'll get some more next week. Maybe not. I mean, I think the market just wants to keep going up from here. So we look for these patterns to develop. We look for the channels. We look for these W patterns. Look for the triangles. You can do that too. You get chartpatterns.com as a website. I like to tell some of my students about, shows you these patterns, show you what they mean, what to look for. It's all about looking at charts. I've looked at hundreds of thousands of charts over the last 30 years and I come to see the same patterns over and over again and it helps. It helps you make these higher probability trades. All right, so that's it for the chart analysis. I hope this has been helpful to you. Don't forget to leave me a comment in this YouTube video, please subscribe. You can hit that red subscribe button in the bottom right-hand corner of the video. Send me an email. I will always answer you. Let's go quickly to our website. SmartOptionsSeller.com, PutSellingBasics. We're all about selling put options here. Go to our website, click on the PutSellingBasics link right here. You'll come to our page and you put in your name and email address. Get our free guide. We'll send it to you. Learn all about PutSelling. If you wanna learn more about what we do and our paid services, you can have, we have two newsletters right here and our coaching sessions to help you get to that next level if you need a little help getting there. All right, so that's really about it for me today. I hope everyone has a great weekend and a great trading week ahead. This is Lee Lowell. I will see you next Saturday. Hopefully. Take care.