 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of TheAxisToTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody had a really good week of trading some really solid action. I hope you guys survived Halloween. If you're like me, man, we got thousands of pounds of candy because kids just can't get enough of trick-or-treating. So hopefully guys are recovering. I'm still here allegedly from death by chocolate and hopefully you guys will have an amazing rest because again next week is another fantastic, exciting, just joking, should be another boring, lethargic, predictable high probability trading week. And the one thing, I woke up this morning and again we had the clock, we got an extra hour of sleep and I woke up this morning and I felt really energized because it feels like it's kind of the mid-morning. Right now it is, I'm recording this at 8 o'clock, right? I'm recording this at 8 o'clock Eastern time, okay? And I feel like it's kind of mid-morning. So this is actually good because now the sun comes up roughly around 7 o'clock instead of waking up pitch black in the morning. So mentally for all those traders, these are all positive steps to kind of get through the winter. So let's talk about the tape. Very, very aggressive action. Again, if you can just go through like video after video after video again, it's all technical analysis. There's really not a lot of surprises. There's a couple of things that we will address in a few minutes but the overall macro market, if we talked about this last week and week before and all that stuff, all these steps, reclaiming the 9068s, going back at the top of supply, backtesting its horizon support, holding yada, yada, yada, we're at all time high. So that's not where the surprise is. I kind of started really focusing on the price action towards the back half of the week. If you notice what happened, you had really strong earnings from Apple, right? The late reaction the day before but really, really strong move on Apple, big move obviously. I think the biggest weight on the Nasdaq 100, the QQQs, Microsoft as well, very, very strong names just consolidating to go higher. But what I started noticing towards the back end of the week, despite Facebook, which looked like they had pretty good earnings, despite Facebook, you really didn't see a lot of really good, strong participation from the Nasdaq 100 names, not the semis. I'm talking about the names that I trade pretty much every single day. Netflix just couldn't get going kind of towards the end of the week. And again, you can make the case. Well, it's just consolidating, reclaiming the five-day moving average is going to go higher. Amazon came out with earnings this week. Again, not horrible earnings, not at all, right? They held us so well, very, very well. But again, maybe next week, again, maybe next week and reclaim supply and goes higher, but just couldn't get that big move going, right? Just couldn't get it going. Roku, again, could have really, really broken out, had the same kind of scenario with Netflix on Thursday and Friday just couldn't get going. Tesla, which was, again, my top watch going into Friday's session, okay, we had this play perfectly, like perfectly, perfectly all week from the big run-up, the second day play that I tweeted out, which, again, I put that, I don't want to use the word lesson, I hate that social media term, but I reiterated one of the better plays out that I've been doing for years is that whole once the stock puts in a big move, the next day it opens up red, it's a gift into rising support and it goes red to green. So we had that blow off top. We shorted it perfectly, perfectly in the next several days into support. Even Friday was a good value trade, but again, it just couldn't get above the five-day moving average. And I started noticing this with a lot of names, like with a lot of names in the NASDAQ 100 space. You go through all of them. You swear, again, strong, but just couldn't bust out the rest of the market. Pinterest, and again, not that Pinterest is the end ball be all, not even a beta name, but names that people can identify that just couldn't get going. You had Shopify, same thing. And again, you look at the space, the semiconductor space, very, very strong. I still think Netflix, next leg up, you have Clack, right? You had Clack, so the semiconductors and Apple and Microsoft are definitely holding the ship. But again, I don't trade based on the indexes. The indexes for me are irrelevant. If you've been watching this kind of broadcast on a weekly basis, the indexes for me are just guides, right? I know the market is strong. You could see it. Again, any fool could turn around and see the market is incredibly strong. The one thing when you are a new trader, sometimes you lag onto the euphoria. You lag onto the linear aggression. And again, everything is perfect right now, right? Earnings are fine, at least on the surface. Earnings are fine. The structure is fine, but what you guys don't have yet. And again, you'll get this in time. You don't just wake up one morning and just understand everything about trading. It takes years and years and years to really understand all the moving parts. And that's why you can't get anything in a book. You can't get anything in an edited version of reality. You need to see everything and play it in real time. That's why I always say time is always the greatest teacher. But the one thing that I started recognizing about 10, 12 years ago is the ability to recognize a warning sign. And again, you're not going to see it on the surface. You never will. And again, maybe it's nothing, but now we have two days in a row that the names that I trade every single day, they just did not participate for the most part. Okay, take Apple out of the way, take Semi's out of the way. I'm talking about the names that should have rallied, right? That really, really should have rallied with the market because their catalyst is out of the way. Either earnings, whatever the case may be, or they have a good number is they just didn't participate. Okay, maybe it's something, maybe it's nothing, but at least for two days in a row, we talk about this all the time. I start to gather evidence. I start to gather information to put myself in a situation to have a better, cleaner opinion the following day. And it started Thursday, right? It started Thursday. You saw Netflix getting hit. You saw Roku getting hit. I gave Tesla the benefit of that. I still think the stock goes higher. And you had these really massive, massive bets on Netflix on Friday, I think north of $10, $12 million worth of bets. I believe it was the January, I'll tell you right now, instead of guessing, I'll tell you right now. It was the January... Where was it? Where was it? You see all these bets coming in. Monster bets, right? Yeah, these really, really huge bets. These were the February 290 calls coming in, just massive moves. I mean, you're talking about $10, $12 million worth of bets and they still couldn't get the stock really getting aggressively. Yeah, you had that pop. You had that very, very aggressive pop off of the sweeps, but it was very, very odd. So again, nobody's talking about their destruction of the markets. It's just something that we need to pay attention to going into this week. Because again, like I say, you don't want to trade with blinders on. The last thing you want to do is put yourself in a position that you are trading with rose-colored glasses. Because again, the market's just not going to tap you on the shoulder, especially if you are position trader, right? The market's just not going to tap you on the shoulder and say, it's okay, it's okay, everything will be fine. Your portfolio is going to be okay. What we saw on Thursday, if you guys remember, it was a very, very odd day. I had a couple of buys that I do these dip plays and I had a couple of buys. One was with Apple. It was the day that Apple came out and earned the next day. It was with Apple and the next day was, excuse me, and the next play was BY&E. This was on Thursday. And I noticed how both of them, when I was trying to buy the bottom of support, what usually happens is it's going to stall out at the bottom of support on the rising channel. And what would happen is the stock in a couple of minutes would usually stabilize and start really bouncing higher, trapping short, trapping eager late shorts. And that didn't happen Thursday. They literally, like, Apple, like, crumble. On Thursday, for example, on the bounce play, I wanted to lose like 30 cents on Apple, so it wasn't even the point of the money. It was how easily, right? It was how easily they went through that rising support. And by the way, if I didn't stop out, right, if I didn't stop out, Apple went down like $2.5, $3 even lower. And the same thing with BY&E. Like BY&E, and again, the only reason I was trying to buy the dip on Thursday, if you guys remember, Friday, Wednesday, I had a really, really aggressive session and it came into support and it failed at support very, very quickly. So I knew right away, again, you don't need to get punched in the face 28 times to figure out that something is wrong, that it hurts. You have to get out of the way. And went into that Friday session kind of knowing this. But again, I wanted to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt. And the most ironic part about Friday session, if you look at, and again, this is the Alibaba pre-market trade that I put into the channel. We'll talk about that in a second. But if you looked at Friday session, I actually had everything to the upside, right, literally to the upside. We'll talk about Alibaba for a second. But I actually had everything to the upside. I had Tesla long pivot, right, Amazon long pivot, Roku long pivot. I had both ranges on BYND, Facebook long pivot, Boeing to the downside, AMT that worked out pretty well, Netflix to the downside. But if you look at everything pre-market, everything was set up to the upside, right, everything pretty much was set up to the upside. And the most ironic part when the market did open up, I found no value at all to the upside. And again, one of the hardest things, especially for a new trader, again, when you're a new trader, you have so many things working against you. Most don't have a process. Most don't not have an adequate way to control their emotions because, again, emotions are part of having a process. When you have a process, it's much easier to curb your emotions trading with it without a process. You're a mess. You're all over the place. So most traders can't identify or don't even have the ability that something, if it's something so obvious, they can't switch, right, they can't switch. I have the ability to, if I see something wrong, especially with the macro structure of something technically just not getting there, I have the ability, because I'm doing this over 20 years, I have the ability to switch from long to short to short to long very, very quickly, not on emotional, right, not on an emotional case, based on technical case. And Friday was a perfect example that we literally went from long bias, right, giving the longs the benefit of the doubt, collecting information the previous day that something was wrong. And we got really good value to the downside, okay, really, really good value to the downside. And the most important part is, again, if you're a new trader and you got long, these stocks, right, and that opening break, again, it's not your fault. Okay, it's not your fault, because, again, the market's strong, right, you've been hearing for years and years and years that the market is very strong, you should be long, you should be everything is good, the indexes are all time highs, every stock should be exploding. And the thing is with me is when I'm trading that specific group, and this is the group I trade, I trade the same names 90, 95% of the time, because, again, I understand that sometimes they do detach, okay, from the indexes, sometimes there is a huge monster disconnect. And when that disconnect happens, I'm usually early on what could happen next. Now, again, I don't want to freak anybody out. Okay, I'm not calling for the destruction of equity prices, everybody, all your permeables, stay calm, stay calm. But again, when I see the leaders, right, the leaders, the happy go lucky cult stocks, not generally participating in a very violent, especially upside bias market. Again, you have to take a step back, right, you have to take a step back and really watch what's happening, because again, I've said this in videos nonstop over and over again. Even if you don't trade beta, okay, if you don't trade Tesla, if you don't trade Netflix, if you don't trade Amazon, right, everything between, okay, they do represent speculation money. And these are the stocks that mutual funds, pension funds, hedge funds want to own. These are the biggest growth stories. These are the stocks that people know they understand, and they love to be, and they love to be long. So when there's money, there's a bias strike. And again, I'm not saying there will be, but it's something for us to at least acknowledge that it's happening. Look at Friday's session in these names. If it continues to happen, it doesn't become a coincidence, okay, it becomes something that we really have to pay closer attention to. Because again, if you don't recognize the early signals, again, maybe it's something, maybe it's nothing, but again, for us to understand that it might be happening, the market's just not going to tap you on the shoulder and say, oh, it's okay, it's okay, Tesla had really, really good earnings. It's okay, right? It's okay. The stock will go to $3.50. Next thing you'll have a $10 candle to $3.05. Again, that's saying it will happen. It's just something for us to watch. So going through this new week, you know, again, I'm still very, very bullish, but I want to watch early evidence come Monday morning of what happens next. I want to see if the futures rally, what happens with Netflix? I want to see if the futures rally, what happens with Roku? I want to see if the futures rally, we get it. Again, a monster catalyst, monster earnings on Tesla, can it finally wake up? And if the answers to those questions are yes, then we have nothing to worry about, right? We have nothing to worry about. If the answer is no, you better take off those rose colored glasses, because again, God doesn't care about your position. So praying to God that the stock rebounds doesn't work. I promise you, it doesn't work. It doesn't work. Your baby is born every single day with third world countries blind, with horrible living conditions. So God, trust me, has other things to do than worry about your Tesla position. So again, do not put yourself in a box. You have the free will to change your opinion. You have the free will to change your bias. But the most important part is do it technically, not emotionally. And again, the markets are going to tap you on the shoulder and say, hey, you're about to die. You're going to die. And again, it's your job to take all the signals and take all your data and try to make an intelligent decision of what to do next. So let's talk about Friday. Really good week, really, really good week. Thursday I didn't have a good day. I didn't have a third day. I just couldn't get going. I just couldn't figure out, I couldn't figure out what this market was telling. Okay, I knew the market was very, very strong. I know the Dow was down 250 points, whatever it was, 200 points of the whole impeachment thing. I really didn't think that was going to be the catalyst going into Friday session. So I still wanted to give the bulls the benefit of the Dow, but I just couldn't get anything going because the names that I traded that should have been strong weren't strong. And again, I cut myself off. It wasn't a bad day. It wasn't a horrible day, but I cut myself off and went into Friday. So Friday came really good value, but not the direction that I was planning to. So let's talk about it. They started out with Alibaba. Okay, this was pre-market and I tweeted this. Again, this is why technical analysis is so damn cool in there. It really is. This is what separates the dreamers and the talkers and the opinion experts and all that stuff. The greatest judge, jury and executioner is technical analysis. I even put this on pre-market on my main Twitter feed. Again, I wanted everybody to understand how important technical analysis is. And I tweeted out and said, look, this 174 is the bottom of the channel. You can see it. 174 is the bottom of the channel. If buyers defend that level, early aggressive sellers come in, really late sellers and the shortest come in at this level, and it holds, that's a very, very important level. And obviously I didn't tweet out what happened next. I put this on the private feed, but I said, hey, 174 held, right? 174 held. Watch red to green for possible move. Note, again, this is not a pivot. Red to green is not a pivot. It's just earnings momentum. So again, we're collecting data. It held the 174. It went red to green and Alibaba did really, really well. Congratulations to all you guys who did trade this thing. Again, here's the 174, right? Here's the 174. It reclaimed and the stock exploded. Even if you messed up this trade and stock went red to green on the 176 area, it still put up like a $3, $4 move. So really, really good move on Alibaba. Like I said, here it is. If you're long, take it on the way up, right? And then boom, big move. Boom, right? Social media word. Boom. Big word. Uber, again, not a big move. Uber comes out and lock up 11.6. This really didn't work too well. I wasn't in this trade, but I saw the price action didn't work too well. Lock up 11.6. 31, if it builds below, it can flush. Here is Uber. This one, I don't think it worked. I don't think it worked too well. So here is the flush, right? So here is the flush here below 31. It only went up. I mean, look, if you took 50 cents in the trade, you took 50 cents in the trade, but it did turn around and started moving up. I didn't trade Uber, just not my thing. But again, keep in mind, lock up is coming out on 11.6. As you guys remember what happened with BYND, right? What happened with beyond on the lock up, you really pay attention on what happened and what might happen to Uber. Again, here is Amazon. I traded Amazon several times this week was really good. It just, it couldn't go, right? It couldn't go. Maybe it goes this week, but Amazon, you know, not a big move yet. 17.93 needs to build. And if you look at Amazon, again, this is where stocks were having a hard time, right? 17.93 and it stopped right at supply. Okay. It only put up a $5, $6 move and it came back in again. I like Amazon. Okay. I think it needs to reclaim supply for it to go again. Maybe it does. Maybe it doesn't. But again, it just couldn't give that big move. It really, really couldn't give that big move on Friday along with a lot of names. Again, I was watching Tesla. This was my focal point of the day. I mean, the most amazing part was this was my focal point of the day going in. I said, okay, look, 17.50, 18 is a sneaky area. It's a very, very aggressive area for experienced traders only 319 macro it needs to build. It never did that. It just never did that, right? So again, we'll talk about this in a second. Roku, sneaky area, 48, 80, 49 needs to go. Again, market's strong, right? Should go. It never got there. Okay. We'll talk about that in a second. BYND again continues to be a really, really good trader. Again, here are the ranges for Friday's session, 91 to the upside, 84 to the downside. I think BYND is going to see, I think BYND is going to see 80 this week. Okay. So we talked about that 84 area. Okay. We talked about that 84 area. It broke, you know, it broke that 84 area, went down to 82. I personally think the stock is going to test that 80 level, right? The earnings level, and I think the stock is going to get killed. So let's keep an eye on BYND for this week. Let me see what else is going on here. Again, Facebook, Facebook again, another example how there was just no strength, right? Facebook got above, you know, Facebook got above that 9380, right? That 9380 and just couldn't get going. You just could not get going again. Can it go on Monday? Of course it can't. But again, just got to pay attention to. So here's where things started getting good, right? Here's where things really started getting good. And this is where we really refocused. Okay, refocused because again, we realized nothing was going higher. So again, if something doesn't go up, let's go, right? So AIMT, big move here. Obviously, Boeing never got down to this 339 level. AIMT 28 needs to build. Here was AIMT. Oops, AIMT, right? So here's AIMT. I don't even know what the hell this is all about. I think this is a fake print. Yeah, it almost went to 29. It reclaimed 28, went to 29. Yeah, and this is where things really got good. Netflix got hit, right? And Netflix got hit very aggressively here. So here was Netflix. Here was the 8430. It went down very, very aggressively. Two bucks very, very quickly. Again, nobody was talking to destruction of prices just for stocks to go from demand to demand. So that was good. Roku was good. I mean, Roku was good. I caught this thing really, really nicely. Roku, so here is the 145, right? Here's the 145 area. It broke the 145, excuse me. Here's the 145 area right here. It broke and it just went right down to the bottom of the channel to the 143. So that was really good. That was a really cool trade. Like I always say, take money on the way down, right? Bingo. Again, Tesla was beautiful. Tesla was beautiful as well. 312 on Tesla, right? 312 on Tesla. Here was the channel on Tesla right here, this whole channel. It built 310, went all the way down to 310. Again, not destruction moves, but again, if something doesn't go up, must go. Right? Nobody's saying for Armageddon. We're just talking about price action, collecting data and moving forward. Again, beyond my comments of the same, went to 82, any close below 82, which it did. I think it tested $80 on Monday. Once it breaks 80, I think the stock will see 74, 75. So that was good. So again, not monster moves, not monster moves. But again, not every single day we're looking for these monster aggressive, you know, game, quote unquote, game changing trades. Sometimes you're going to just find areas of interest in the market that have nothing to do with the overall macro view. Okay. The market was super duper strong. And I noticed the stocks that we trade were not. And again, it's sometimes, you know, technical analysis becomes simplistic when you just use common sense. When stock can go up, when the futures exploding, there's a really good chance it's going to go down. And that's, and sometimes, again, that theory plays out really, really well. So again, something for us to think about, I'm still bullish, obviously, going into the week. Again, just keep in the back of your minds, guys. Okay. Let's watch what happens that first candle on Monday. Okay. If we start seeing, again, Tesla can't rally. Netflix can't rally. And they start breaking down at the bottom of the channels. It's going to go lower. Again, I hope they don't. Okay. I hope they don't. Because again, when you look at Tesla, for example, okay, all it needs to do is reclaim this five-day moving average and the stock is going to explode. Right. If you look at Amazon, again, just to give you an idea, all it needs to do is to reclaim the top of this channel and it's going to explode. If you look at Nvidia, right, right. Again, all it needs to do is reclaim this five-day moving average. It's going to explode. The problem is it keeps on getting rejected from the top of the channel. Apple is still a monster, obviously. Microsoft, it looks like it wants to go higher. Intel, again, Intel. I like Intel. I think Intel goes higher. I think Intel, all it needs to do is reclaim this 5670 and it's going to go higher. But again, look how tight this range is. And this is what's great about pivots, right? We don't care which way they go. You see me all the time tweeting ranges in the private feed. BYD, 91 to the upside, 84 to the downside. What's the difference which way the stock goes, right? What's the difference when the stock goes? So going into this week, I have a very, very definitive channel for Tesla to the long side, to the short side. Same thing with Intel, same thing with Microsoft, same thing with Amazon. And again, here's a perfect example of Intel. You don't need to guess. You don't need to forecast. You don't need to play Miss Clio and take out your crystal ball. Here's the channel, right? The top of the channel is Intel. If it gets above 5670, it starts to build. It's going to go higher. Look at the bottom of the channel. It's very, very tight. If Intel starts losing 55, 60, 55, 50, it's going to go lower. So you don't need to be a bull or a bear. You just need to have common sense. You just need to take off the rose-colored glasses and let the market tell you. Again, our opinions mean crap. I'm the king of the idiots. I'm a schmuck. I'm a moron. I'm all of these things. But again, I have common sense. And when something tells me, go, I go. You don't sit there and try to take your opinion, have an opinion of what's going to happen next. The market is going to tell you what's going to happen next. Your opinion doesn't pay. Price action does. So going to this week, guys, I am bullish. But again, I want to be very, very conscious of a potential pull, continuation pull of these names, because if these bottom channels start to confirm, we're going to go lower. And again, it doesn't mean a macro pull lower. It just means a view of the beta cult names that could get pulled. And they could be pulled very, very aggressively. So everybody, I want to wish you guys an awesome, awesome trading week. We got an extra hour. We got an extra hour. Use that hour wise. Instead of worrying about your fantasy football team, the enactors, one guy is questionable. Take that hour and do something productive for your trading career. Look at charts, back test, look at some news. Do whatever you need to do to put yourself in a better situation to succeed for Monday. Again, if you're doing exactly the same things over and over again, you're not getting anywhere. What makes you think that next week is going to be different? Trading is not hoping and praying that you're a good person. You're humbled and all that good stuff. That's great in real life. It's important to be humble and a nice person and love you kids and love your wife and love you dog. As a trader, you have one job. Collect information, wait for it to confirm and strike with extreme prejudice. Guys, God bless, love you all and I'll see you on the field tomorrow. Take care. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan? Straight off his personal watch list? Unlock our free PS60 vault where you'll get nightly updates on pivot opportunities we're watching for the next day's session. Click the link in the description to get started today.