 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to another edition of theaxistrader.com weekend update. It is Saturday. It is 8am. I've been up since like 5.30, already went to the gym, went to the sauna, walked my dog, had breakfast on my cup of coffee, decaf, half-calf. And I'm ready for the day. And I think the message is, as we get older, you don't appreciate this when you're in your teens or your 20s or even sometimes your 30s. But it's the time of the day that you actually have to do things that are productive in your life. It could be just as simple as taking a walk with your dog, taking your kid somewhere, spending time with your loved one and friends. But make the time that you are on earth awake, breathing, and healthy count. And I think that's the most important part. As I get older, I can't ever see myself like sleeping in 8, 9, 10 o'clock. Life is too short. And I think it's an incredible gift that we get to wake up every morning. So might as well make the most of it. Other than that, guys, if you are brand new to the channel, thank you very much for tuning in. If you could take a second and be so kind to just like, share, subscribe, come along. Come along in this journey of unbiased technical analysis. And for all you guys who joined us this week, right? Celebrating the 25 years for me in this wonderful reality show that's not on television. The Trading World next couple of weeks. We've been kind of celebrating my 25th up and coming anniversary in a couple of weeks. So for all you guys who came along this week, you got pretty much to see everything, right? You got to see the bounces, the rejections, the natural pivots, long shorts and so forth and so on. And it's a very, very cool unique way of looking at the market. It's not the quote, unquote, normal way to look at the market. The PS60 theory was designed for channels to be played within those channels and outside those channels on expansion days, both long and shorts. For you guys who are interested to take advantage. You have a couple of days left. I think I think Kenyon is running it through through President's Day weekend, which is this weekend, I think through Monday. So if you want to come aboard guys, you have until Monday to kind of take advantage of the special. So let's talk about, right? So the market has been absolutely stellar, right? Absolutely on fire since 2023. This is probably as equal to the internet craze as you can possibly get. The moves, the aggressive moves in real stocks. Again, if you guys remember going, oh, some of you guys do, some of you guys don't. But going back to the internet craze in 99 and 2000. Yeah. For you had a lot of crazy random stocks, eToys and Sdli and JDS Uniface and Sun Microsystem at that time and Norital Networks and PDLI, like all these weird symbols. Of course, you have the internet stocks popping. But the major difference between this potential craziness versus what we saw during then, this is happening with real companies. These panic buying with companies have been around for a while that have billions and billions and approaching trillions of dollars of market caps. So this is a very, very special market. It's unique in that fashion. And you've seen now in the last five weeks that fund managers are playing catch up. They're playing catch up because of these extraordinary runs they missed in 2023. That's why you're seeing such exaggeration moves in the sleast in the first month and change of 2024. However, the most basic thing happens is markets get tired. And if you look at this past week, just on the scoreboard, all major benchmarks down about 1% or so. Some less, some a little more than NASDAQ. NASDAQ was down 1.3%. And this pretty much snapped a five week winning streak for the indexes. But again, if you traded indexes again means nothing. It's water cooler talk. It's just the scoreboard people keeping tabs. The market was vicious, absolute vicious this week. And despite the cues failing to reclaim back the five day moving average, we saw some extraordinary moves. Let's just go one by one. Let's start off with SMCI. This was definitely the most majestic move probably I've seen in a real company in a long time. Again, you could turn around and say, well, Tesla had this magnificent move in 1920. It absolutely did. Nvidia is still in the middle of its mass majestic move. Now, obviously they report in a couple of days. But this is one of those stocks that for the majority part of the move, I don't think at least none of my buddies. Even looked at this thing. Because again, you turn around and say, well, why am I going to trade SMCI if I could trade in the same space in video? If I could trade in the same space AMD, the liquidity is there. I could buy, you know, and this is the rationale behind it is, you know, I could buy 10 times more liquidity on AMD that I can turn around on SMCI because it trades $1, $1.5, sometimes $2 spreads with 100 share lots. And of course, it's cool, you know, seeing the stock go up 50, 60 points. But if you have no size on 50, 60 points, what the hell is the point, right? If a trader's methodology is I would rather make two points on Tesla than 20 points on SMCI. You kind of understand where most traders are coming from. But nevertheless, I mean, this was pretty much one of the biggest moves I think I've seen in my career in a real stock. It went from what, 250, kind of out of this, quote unquote, blow off top around the 1,078 level and an incredible reversal. But hey, listen, that's gravity. You knew it was coming eventually, right? It wasn't really a secret. The question is, you know, if you took advantage, you were fantastic, right? We had a 970 backside pivot on this thing that imploded. Again, congratulations for all you guys who caught it. Again, this is not really my thing. And I've been saying this for weeks and weeks and weeks. Again, I'd rather trade NVIDIA. I do trade NVIDIA. I love NVIDIA. I'd rather trade AMD. I love trading AMD now. So this is really not my thing. I know a lot of people did really very, very well on this thing. And God bless, right? And that's the whole point of pivots. You know, pivots don't care, you know, who is in the trade or not. It's either going to go or it's not going to go. And this was a perfect scenario just to stop, just to stop, right? Just absolutely stop putting the blow off top. It lost the previous day's range, right? It lost the previous day's range of 917. And once it lost the previous day's range in 917, it got to the five day. And, you know, next week, if it starts taking out, if it starts taking out Friday's range, it probably has another, you know, 30, 40 points in the trade. Might have a day two in this thing as well. But again, absolutely majestic run. Tesla, right? Tesla finally broke out, right? Finally broke out. The problem with Tesla is it broke out at the wrong day, right? It broke out the day that the market, you know, kind of rested. But this was a great move. This was an absolute great move. I'm still holding a runner from a couple of days ago. Finally broke out above this 196-50 level. Traded his highs to 205s. Kicked out more stock pre-market yesterday. You know, again, this is the highest close in this whole formation. You have short-term call buying coming in for next week, a lot. A lot of it despite the weakness in the market. Again, great, great move on Tesla. On Thursday, consolidation inside day. On Friday, they were coming for the February 23rd expiration. Basically this week's up and coming weeklies. They were coming for the 205s, the 210s. So let's see if Tesla could wake up on some of the money flow that's maybe taking out of SMCI or some of these other names. It could be kind of pulled into Tesla. Tesla starts reclaiming back Friday's pre-market highs. You can see the 60-minute view. If Tesla starts getting above this pre-market high on Friday, we could see a move in this whole fill of this 210-212 level. So hopefully it can get it's done. All eyes, obviously, if you trade technology. All eyes on NVIDIA. They're reporting on the 21st. I believe it's Wednesday. Price targets all over the place. It feels like every single day a new broker is coming out and giving them a more exaggerated price target. I mean, I saw a $1,200 price target. I saw a $1,500 price target this week. All eyes on NVIDIA. But before it gets there, right? Before it announces earnings, I want to kind of give you guys a little bit of synopsis. The market is a very... It's every year the expression copycat league, right? Like in the NFL, now everybody's past happy. It's very, very rare that you see a run first team. Everybody's past happy. So the market's kind of a copycat event as well. So, you know, the thought... Like I already spoke to one of my buddies last night. And he's like, well, yeah, everybody knows nothing's going to happen to NVIDIA prior to its earnings released Wednesday night. But what happens if it doesn't, right? What happens... And I tweeted this out on Friday afternoon. But what happens if the market decides to do a juky-puky and pull a SMCI right before earnings? It's very possible, right? If you see here the last three days that it held the bottom of the range literally at the same price. Now, what happens on Tuesday, right? Because earnings are Wednesday night. So you have two full trading days. Now, what happens if this thing decides to pull a SMCI and loses the bottom of the range? Hey, maybe we could get a, you know, $15, $20 move before earnings. Again, I'm not saying it will happen. But hey, like I say every single video, it will be prepared. So all eyes on NVIDIA for Wednesday night. We'll see. You know, we'll see what happens there if this is indeed already priced into the move or does the market have more room to go? Not all pretty in everywhere, okay? Apple is very, very close to the bottom of the range. It's not a good thing. This thing starts getting below the bottom of the range. And now this is like day two now below the 200-day SMA. Again, nothing happens good. You guys saw what happened with Tesla when it lost the 15 to 200-day. Nothing good happens if this thing starts putting in a nice base here below the 200. This is definitely a name we want to watch if the market starts to pull next week. And again, it's a very, very big if it starts to pull. But again, the stock sitting below the 200-day moving average is not a good thing. Same thing with Microsoft. Guys, look how close this Microsoft is to really giving this an exaggerated swan die, right? Look at this rolling. This is a rolling top. A high, a lower high, a lower high, a lower high. If Microsoft loses the 20-day support, folks, there's room all the way down to the 50-day moving average. You're talking about, what, 404 all the way down to 388, which is the 50-day? Again, something to be prepared for. It doesn't mean it's going to happen, but something to be prepared for. Google, right? Another name just like Apple and just like Microsoft. Google is sitting on its 50-day moving average, right? The last time it lost the 50-day moving average, it got down to its next rising support, right? Next rising support. So watch Google. Same thing. If the market gets pulled next week, watch Google. If it starts losing the 50-day moving average, this thing can really, really get back to the bottom of the range here. Look at Coin. Coin had an incredible run with Bitcoin, right? Incredible run with Bitcoin. It put an inverted hammer, right? It put an inverted hammer. Keep this in mind. In two weeks, the stock has gone from 114 to 200, okay? Can this be a same scenario as SMCI? Hey, why not, right? Why not? Again, copycat league. If this thing starts losing the bottom of the range and there's another down-day on SMCI, well, why can't Coin come in 20, 30 points? For God's sake, the stock is up from 115 to almost 200. You tell me you can't give a retrace of 20 points, especially after an inverted hammer, right? Absolutely. Again, keeping the theme of a potential copycat theme. Look at Arm. Arm had an incredible run. Now it's sitting at a very tight channel. Again, we don't know which way it's going to break, but again, if we are trying to set up a narrative again, I'm not trying to convince anybody for anything, but if this does play out and they start pulling the coins of the world, and the videos of the world, right? Look at the bottom of the range of Arm, right? Two out of the last three days were red candles. It means the closes were lower than the open. So what happens if it loses the five-day? What happens if it loses the bottom of the range? I mean, look how much room you have. You have 20 points back to the downside. So there's a lot of really, really good setups in case we get pulled on the market. Meta I traded this week was finally, remember we told them for like two, three days, maybe we'd finally break that, finally broke out, right? Finally broke out. It was a phenomenal move on Thursday. The problem was the market got soft. It picked a wrong time to break out, and now it's sitting the last couple of times on the 10-day. Now what happens if the market gets pulled? What happens if Meta starts losing the 10-day? It doesn't mean the stock has to go higher. Stocks do go down. So we got to watch the 10-day. Last time it stopped at the 10-day was February the 13th and then bounced. Friday stopped at the 10-day, held the 10-day. We know what happens if it loses the 10-day. That's exactly what I'm watching for the start of the week. And last but not least is Amazon, right? Amazon never really gave that second earnings run after a pretty good quarter. And if you guys watch the news, Jeff Bezos has been selling a lot of stock, right? As that has something to do with the ability for this thing not to get going. Again, very tight channel. Again, I don't know which way it's going to break. As you can see here, it's got rejected three of the last four days on the five-day reclaim. It needs to reclaim the five-day moving average of a dozen. Now we're talking about the bottom of the range of the 20-day support. So there's a lot of stuff going on, an amazing market. And the key to this fall is the queues, right? Is the queues. So the queues have failed to reclaim the five-day moving average in the last three days in a row. And now we have to look at the bottom of the range here of the 20-day moving average, which is 425. As 425 gets violated and especially closed below 425, that means it will take out this whole rising support of the 20-day moving average that's held now for the last two months. So if we start losing 425 and that's to be a big cog here, then it's going to be a pretty good sell signal. This means the end of the rally just means the sell signal for the next couple of days. So we're very, very conscious of those levels. So that's it, guys. That's it. It's pretty basic stuff here. Hopefully everybody is doing well. Hopefully everybody's happy and healthy and taking care of themselves and taking care of the loved ones. Again, there are no Mulligans, guys. We only have one life to live. Again, if you are interested in pivots, take advantage in the next couple of days through President's Day weekend. And I look forward to working with you guys soon, right? No fluff, no editing, no nonsense. Just straight-up channels, straight-up pivots. And the most important part is you're fully understanding of why, and that's the key to being a trader. Guys, God bless. Have a great weekend, and I will see you all on Tuesday.