 Okay ladies and gentlemen, welcome to another live analysis session with me Patrick Munley. If you can hear me and you can see a Tick Mill welcome screen, could you type a Y in the chat box just so I know you can hear and see. Thanks very much. Okay so before we get going with today's content as always we want to adhere to the risk disclaimer and most importantly any views expressed during today's presentation are strictly mine, they are not representative of Tick Mill and they certainly don't constitute investment advice. So with the risk disclaimer out of the way, for those who don't know me, my name is Patrick Munley. I've been trading since 2004-2005, managing my own money since 2013. I've taken on external investor capital through a managed account service. The performance you can see on the screen is the monthly and yearly return statistics, risk statistics for that service and I guess what I pay attention to is or what's important for me is I'm not concerned about the outcome of individual trades or a string of trades. I'm focused on process and execution versus a trade plan and adhering to that plan and I know then that in the next hundred trades my edge will demonstrate itself and as you can see on an annual basis I've been profitable since 2013 with that managed account service. So that's in terms of where my focus is in terms of trading it's very much about process and I know that if I adhere to that process then the numbers will take care of themselves. Alongside my trading activity which is mainly an end-of-day execution for me now I predominantly trade off the daily charts as a rule from time to time. I do see setups on the intraday charts and we'll trade those but as a rule I trade on the daily charts and so I have quite a bit of time on my hands and so a couple of other projects I'm involved in obviously with TickMail and a resident market expert and I provide a daily market outlook and a daily setup that I'm watching you can subscribe to that through the TickMail blog sites. I also manage and run a trading education service through a company called FX CareerSwap and what we're basically doing there is taking emerging and retail trading talents giving them education and support and then once they completed a structured program we actually fund traders who complete the program and help them overcome what really most new traders struggle with and that's the issue of capitalisation because you can have an excellent trading plan and you can adhere to that and you know even if you're delivering 30 to 50% a year let's say which is excellent returns if you're really trading a thousand dollar account or a thousand pound account that isn't going to add up to a financial return that's going to move the needle for you so what we're doing is looking to fund retail trading account to help them overcome the capitalisation hurdle which is one that traders generally struggle with so that gives you a flavour of where I'm coming from you can reach out to me on LinkedIn if you want or check out my profile has more information on there so let's get into some slides here. I shared this last week just quickly going over just in terms of you know the broader themes that I'm watching in the markets or anticipating still see that we could potentially be coming into a major turning point for the dollar this is the dollar going back to the 1970s and you can see the cycles here and how financial crisis is market panics etc. I've impacted the dollar and from the cycle perspective we were reaching an inflection point here where we could see the dollar turn meaningfully lower we also have this slide from Goldman Sachs showing 16 year cycles in the dollar what you'll notice that the turns don't tend to be don't tend to be just one-off events you know we we often make a high retest or marginally exceed a high and then ultimately roll over so whilst I have a structural view that you know I'm looking for was some dollar weakness and that doesn't mean it's necessarily going to immediately come to fruition that's certainly a theme that I've got in the back of my mind and one that I'm paying attention to and it's predominantly driven by the fact that some you know we're seeing a mass liquidity provision from the from the Federal Reserve and ultimately I believe that that will in time little weaker dollar certainly when we consider the Fed's quantitative easing with respect to the ECB these are projections from where we currently are and where we're likely to to head to in terms of in terms of liquidity and you can see that the Fed is far outpacing the ECB so at some point that's going to come home to roost and we we likely see this this week weaker dollar at the moment in terms of opportunities I'm watching or trades that I'm in I'm looking at the Australian dollar and I had this with the guys in in my trade theme that we're seeing a potential near term topping pattern here I think in the Australian dollar and certainly the options markets are are indicating such we're seeing a move in terms of the risk reversals so the implied volatility premium for Aussie puts so downside protection over calls has started to tick up again and and that's it's likely if not immediately it's certainly going to we should start see that feed through to the spot price which should should start to come down similar story in terms of the implied volatility premiums they're just starting to tick up again as well here in the Aussie also in the Canadian dollar we saw some pretty decent reversals in in the Aussie and the Lune yesterday and I'll move on to the charts in a second one of the trade that I'm at the moment is this Euro dollar for a sell signal on that last night but again I shared this with the guys we could well be in a period of lackluster spot movement as there are some big we've got five billion dollars worth of option expiraries in and around this 187 sorry 108 75 to 109 level the majority of those are going to roll off today at 10 a.m. New York time so that might free up this this Euro dollar once we see some of those option structures removed but certainly at the moment we're seeing a sticky price action in around this 108 75 this is typically due to hedging that that takes place by the option writers as price trades around the option strike nearer to that that 10 a.m. cut in New York some other interesting notes here and this is from JP Morgan the G 10 FX desk they're also starting to to get a little bit bearish here in terms of the Euro and and the Aussie you'll see here they're highlighting the potential for a near-term shift in terms of risk appetite we've obviously seen a you know a drive off the lows certainly in the S&P but as I've highlighted in a few of my daily market outlets we're testing some some initial decision points here for the market and these guys who are seeing the biggest amount of flows in terms of in terms of their client order books is JP Morgan are you know they're the flow coming through their books is probably the largest in the in the interbank space at the moment and so I'd like to pay attention to their flow information it's starting to see the potential for a near-term turn here in the dollar and similar story here in credit-agricle after seeing dollar selling last week they're starting to see that ease now and we're starting to see some some buying interest you develop in terms of the dollar index and they're starting to see now some fresh selling interest as well in the euro so you can see how this this flow dynamic and positioning of some of the bigger players in the market it's supportive of the view that we might see a pullback here this is from BMP Paribas we're also seeing the potential for declines in both the Australian dollar and Kiwi dollar here so we so in terms of what we're looking to do as retail guys is we're looking to try and write the coattails of these these much bigger players and so I use share this information with my training team because when you can start to see a theme developing then it's certainly worthwhile paying attention to so let's jump onto the charts now and start with that with a dollar so there but the dollar is basically you know in no man's land at the moment we're kind of in a neutral phase here but we did see a bullish outside reversal from the monthly pivot here and the weekly S1 we're now training back into the weekly pivot and like I said we've got these big options rolling off in terms of the euro dollar so we like I think today we probably see a consolidation day certainly until later on 3 p.m. UK times when those options expire we might see some some movement then another thing you should pay attention to today is that we're getting jobless claims and we had dire retail sales data yesterday out of the US and that prompted this this move to safety in terms of the dollar as you know we saw we saw a sell-off in risk assets and if we if these jobless claims you know come in on the the heavy side today then I think we'll see another another nurture the dollar if we if we break from current levels so if whilst we hold this current swing low at 98.92 the upside objective the equality move here is is 101.62 and then we'll see how we trade that's the next decision point we'll see how we trade there that would allow some of these oversold conditions in terms of the momentum studies in the dollar to unwind and if we you know if we're getting back up into this area 101.60 the weekly R2 there and you know we get the momentum studies back above the 80 level then I'll be watching potential reversal patterns to to re-engage the dollar on the short side and certainly you know in in light of what I in light of what I envisage is coming down the pike in terms of the liquidity and how that's going to impact the dollar index I'm paying close attention to two short setups and trying to see if I can build a structural position on the short side of the dollar but for now I'm I'm long dollar and again that's trading it you know I'm trading the signals I get from my strategy and then I'm also using that strategy in light of the the broader thematic view to try and then build more significant structural position so this is what I'm looking at in the dollar obviously if we take out these lows at 98.90 then the next decision point on the downside is going to be this equality move down into the 98.46 area which is also 78.6% the traceman of move that we saw off the lows so that would be the next key and downside targets if we don't manage to build on yesterday's reversal again if we can consolidate today and close within the high you know close maybe we don't take out yesterday's high that's fine but if we can consolidate and get a green close here closing up towards the highs that would add to the conviction of this upside move that would give that bullish inside day setup which which often proves which often proves positive in terms of the outcome so I mean that's we're just going to watch and see where we will close on the dollar index and certainly watching those jobless claims today to see what impact they have in terms of risk sentiments so talking about broader risk sentiments one of the charts obviously that I've shared I shared on the blog is this S&P and just highlighting where we are we've come just shy of testing the equality move here off the lows this is our first wave mr. second wave and what we're looking at now is is we're in this 50% retracement got the equality move just above we did get a key day reversal yesterday a bearish inside day so I mean we certainly got some resistance here at the 2850 level I'm looking to to get to go short here on a break of yesterday's layers of I've gone all the wrestling at the moment at 2755 what I'll do today is if that gets filled I'll use today's high as a stop you know 10 ticks above today's high so I'll just show you how I'll play this so I'm looking at getting in at 2755 and then I'll use today's high currently we've got the 2812 so I'll give 10 ticks above that so 2821 now the initial move that you know where I think we'll head to initially is down to this 26 area 2600 so even by the time we get there I've got 1.6 times risk reward ratio working in my favor on this trade if it if it plays out and I watch I'll go at this stage that trade will be risk free for me because there's the potential here that we basically do a symmetry swing so you can see the scale of the move that we saw here all we need to do is overlay that to there and you can see that that brings us directly into that support zone that I took those just mentioning and from there we could make another move higher because whilst this is a you know a key decision point the next key decision point is actually the seventy eight point six percent retracement of the entire decline okay and the one six one extension of this initial swing off the loads so if we hold 26 and we get and I get a bullish reversal I'd actually move I'd be risk free in my short anyway I'd actually put on another long to trade up for a test of this thirty one thirty one thirty one thirty six thirty one eighty will be the key upside objective but what I'm cognizant of the reason why I put the shorts on is that in a technical perspective we've satisfied the minimum criteria really for this correction versus that that leg that we saw to the downside as as the crisis really starts to take hold so technically we could well now see an equality move to the downside you know the in light of the recent flows we've seen the market certainly started to move to a more bullish stance some of these larger investment banks their research departments not so much their trading desks but their research departments are certainly pulled up on the market at the moment and that tends to be just about the time that we see the turn I mean by the time we when we were trading down here at these lows you know you have the Goldman Sachs research department saying we were going to two thousand and we parked and you just this week Goldman Sachs again I stressed the research department these aren't their traders these are you know the market analysts and research guys it's more marketing information more than anything else but they they've got very bullish here now they said they wish you didn't know this week saying that they think the lows are in and you know we'll be seeing new highs so you know that those tend to be pretty decent indicators contrary indicators for a sentiment perspective so there you know the the potential here and you know I take it step by step day by day I'm gonna get ahead of myself but the potential is that we could see that equality move that you know even technically this even if this pattern plays out it's still actually corrective you know that's still just a correction and then we could take off from these lower levels and then start to build certainly if we think in terms of timescale you know this would take if we I doubt we'll see an equality in terms of the velocity that we saw to the downside again unless we get some really dire news regarding maybe a second wave in the Covid crisis but for now what I would anticipate is this move will likely be more of a grind probably taking us into that mid-summer period and by then we could be start you know they we could be starting to hear about vaccine being developed etc and that well I mean but at the moment that's really what what's what these markets are the risk markets certainly are going to be hinging on once we've got clear visibility on a vaccine you can expect these these markets to start to take off again but for now we don't have that and you know Spain for example came out just today and they've had an increase in terms of infections for the first time in six days I mean you know there's I think the the markets probably got ahead of itself here but you know I've got key levels that I'm watching so you know I'll be short three yesterday's lows sorry three Monday's lows but I'll be risk free by the time we get to 20 if we get to 2600 who knows you know maybe we come down and pop higher that's you know like I say I'm not the outcome of each trade is not something that I'm I'm concerned about but I you know I have a plan for each trade and a process and that's that's what I'm you know that's what I stick to so I've got a signal I mean you know I'm in a decision point area in terms of the market structure and so I've got that order in place for the S&P and then you know that's that if we think about risk proxies the Aussie has pretty much been trading in tandem with the S&P and as such I've also got a signal a sell signal last night in terms of the Aussie yen which you know you can see the similarities in terms of the price patterns with the S&P here and there's the Aussie yen obviously the other chart's blown up a bit but let's just do it. So you get the idea in terms of the competition we're seeing in terms of the Aussie yen as a risk instrument so I'm also I've got an order to sell this Aussie yen down through yesterday's lows so just a tip or two below 6750 I think I've got and so again I used the same strategy here if I get filled on that order I'll be I'll have a stop 10 pips above today's highs so I get an improved risk reward as opposed to having to risk this whole candle here you know 160 pips I can get tighten that up to about 70 or 80 pips there and similar idea really I'll be using you know once if I get filled on the trades I'll be looking at a symmetry swing as the first area of potential support for the market which again at this instance we'll put us back down into the monthly pivot okay so we've tested it tested below the monthly visit close back above it we saw the run higher in line with with risk sentiments and now we're seeing this pause so if we if we break break the lows get filled the first area I'll be looking at is this 6594 area now if we don't find support there then I'll be looking and again we've got this trend line we tested it we've opened up below it now so this is adding conviction to this this trade so if we don't find support at the 66 level then what I want to do is bring in the fibra tracements all here and the next target in terms of this trade to the downside will actually be the 50% retracement area so if we don't find support at 66 then I'll be looking for a move down to 6460 which again you know it will give me at that stage about 300 pips in terms of upside and from a risk of all perspective that's a 4.2 return versus my risk okay so that's the the play that I'm looking at in the Aussie yen I'm currently short the Australian dollar I've got filled overnight as we spiked lower so a similar scenario you can see we've corrected into this 50 this we actually held the 61.8% trace and I don't have it on my chart here let's just see just because I don't see we tested in we tested the 61.8% almost to the pit and then we got that bearish outside candle so you know that's a signal for me we're testing up into the volatility support and resistance bands we've got the monthly VWAP coming in here the dailies flip bearish as of last night so I I got filled on a break of last night's lows and what I'm what I'm looking at here we could consolidate a bit now as we that's risk sentiment it will happen if we get a rollover in the S&P then I'm anticipating this also your rollover but so I'm going to give this a little bit of room to breathe here and I'm using a stop just above the near term and longer term VWAP so I've got it in around 63.66 so you know we could consolidate a bit here and again in terms of strategy for managing the trade we've got this symmetry swing so we'll be looking okay I'll be looking for a move back down to test 62 so that stage the trade will be risk-free for me if nobody's in at 62 and they don't you know the buyers don't show up well then it's the same story in terms of targets you know we look then for a move back down to test 60 again we could you know from here we could we could find some some initial support then what we get is pretty nice potential head and shoulders pattern which could take us back down to 78.6 here at 57 so either way I'll be risk-free by the time you know we trade into the 60 area and if we don't find support there then then I can see us trading down into this 60 level the similar to the the idea in terms of the the S&P with that 78.6 retracement if we hold this 60 level then what we could see is another leg of upside here quality move that would then take us into this big a quality leg so this leg here so this baby and then we have the CD completing here okay so we can trade up into there and with then we've got 78.6% retracement we've got the monthly R1 and you can see then we'd be trading nicely back into these prior lows here and and certainly at that stage I'd be looking at a potential short but like I say I've got a valid signal now I'm in the train we'll see how that one plays out but you can see again how you know have a plan that I'm I'm working with in terms of managing my risk managing the trades a couple of others that I've got I got a signal in the Euro that I've already talked about but really the Euro is the same idea here in terms of the dollar index what I've got now is we've got potential a b cd with the target here for this initially will be back into what could be a pretty meaningful and double bottom in terms of the Euro I don't know that for you know obviously that's unknown at this stage but if we did get that move you know that would broadly coincide with you know this dollar index we could see a push through the equality objective here and up into the one six one and we could see pretty major potential for for a double top there in the dollar index and so that's so I'm trading you know I've got the signal we take we're at the monthly VWAP getting we saw a rejection yesterday we're trading in around this weekly pivot like I said we've got these big options rolling off this afternoon so we'll see if that you know can free this up to the downside we're kind of the one of the things that is less appealing about this this setup is the fact that we're in kind of in no mountains here in terms of the momentum studies but from a trend perspective you know holding that that this midpoint can certainly unlocks and bearish downside so that we get this momentum study down into that overball sorry oversold area setting up the idea then for for a long from from a potential double bottom into this one oh six thirty area so again I'm using I've got to stop just above the VWAP here because what you'll you'll tend to find once these moves start they tend to respect VWAP so I use a stop 10 pips above the VWAP just give me a bit of wiggle room and see if this one's going to play out another trade I'm looking at the moment it's the Singapore dollar had a good month trading this last last month got stopped here on a long position but we've got another long signal here the what one of the things that that I would have preferred to have seen is that we complete you know that we'd achieve this equality swing we haven't done that you know you can't get everything all the time in terms of the technical setup but you know do we meet the minimum criteria well yeah we tested the 50% retracement tested the month could pivot got a bullish reversal we've tested the VWAP the 20 period VWAP bands and we've got a bullish a bullish monthly VWAP and we've got the RSI stochastic down below the 20 and and positively diverging so you know does it tick enough boxes for a trade yeah it does and and I've got an order in to buy that at 4290 and again you know I'll just use wherever we get these wherever our overnight lows are now as as my start 10 pips below so let's just be clear like I say 4290 is the entry and I just give it 10 or so pips below the low and ultimately what I've been looking for is you know a double top really at this stage initially and again that feeds into the dollar index idea of a of the potential for a double top terms of managing it well we're probably already at the cemetery swing here not far from it so once we get up into this if we see 4360 so I'll be running 70 or 80 pips and profit by that stage risk free for me again because you know we could eat this we could hit the cemetery swing and similar to the other patterns that I've talked about that could set up the final swing down to complete a more complex correction but even at that stage we're you know we're in we're in another great setup there for a long because we're training back into those prior breakout highs we volatility sport and we would have completed the ABCD quality move and we'd be at the 50% retracement of the entire move from from the March lows up into the highs and say what you get a sense of at the moment certainly is that you know kind of all these these these trades we're looking at are pretty much linked to one degree or another to the S&P so I mean if what we to get these trades really moving we want to see the S&P roll over and money move into the dollar safe haven again in the near term and then we see how that how that plays out in terms of managing the positions that one that's the reverse pretty heavily yesterday again we're not seeing any follow-through at the moment is the it's a loony so you know we took out the trend line resistance we're consolidating here so I'll see you know if we can if we get a bullish if we get a get a break through the highs of of the day then you know again this this is another low risk relatively low risk reward I'm set up because if we get a signal there then again you can you can make the risk reward pretty attractive because you know if I go long through the high the overnight highs couple of pips above and then I use a stop below 10 pips below the overnight low and then you know I don't need to see much movement before before it's working in my favor from a risk reward perspective so you know again symmetry swing here and and then we'd you know you've got to be risk-free as you trade into that 4280 area the overnight high it's it's 41 30 36 so 41 45 would be my entry or 41 40 probably and and then I want to be risk-free by the time I'm trading 42 80 some already upper you know over 100 pips there so again risk reward perspective you can you can really make that work as we consolidate here and again the and the reason why I've been watching those those symmetry news because we haven't seen the equality objective to the downside here and so what I perceive is is the risk is that we get the symmetry swing again so I see a theme develop here guys I'm sure we get into that symmetry swing and then we can still roll over from there to complete the equality move before really taking off against the upside so I'm I'm always and I'm always cautious where but when I see these these like incomplete sequences I don't want to get get too heavily involved in terms of loading up on risk here but now I get these I can make these trades work for me from a risk-free perspective by using these inside consolidations or as I've referred to in the Asian range break trades to tighten up my risk ward and see if we get the move but certainly I'm paying attention to the symmetry swing areas as as when we hold those then we could likely see the third you know third third leg down in terms of the correction is still corrected at that stage you know we haven't from a from 10th perspective with everything's intact and again we just be that will bring us into the 61.8 percent trucement and and then we'd have that quality so again that's another one I'm gonna put on or have a look at once I once I jump off this call okay guys and that's all I really wanted to to review in terms of opportunities today you know keep an eye on these these initial jobless claims keep an eye on the S&P and the dollar they you know these these instruments are really driving the markets at the moment and and you know you need to be focused on the levels in both of those instruments as they go through Pivotal and for this next phase of market development. Does anyone have any questions with respect to any charts I've covered or does anyone have a chart they'd like me to take a look at for them you type an N in the chat box so that I know that there haven't left anyone behind here okay if there aren't any questions guys I'll wrap this one up here and and I'll see you all you can follow you can follow me on Tradingview through the FX career swap I try and post post some charts there when I have time but if not I'll catch you guys sometime next week thanks very much for your time and hope this helps