 sure to have Ethan and Kerry here to do a presentation on this new piece of work looking at the investment framework in Latin America and the Caribbean for low-carbon energy technologies. And I think this is really an important step forward to try to identify where the opportunities are, where constraints are, so that the business community can move forward and finding opportunities as they go along. I'm mostly doing this part of this session because Ethan and Kerry have, I think, become quite practiced at their presentation, so I will turn it over to them in just a second. But I think it'd be helpful if we went around the room and if folks could identify who they are with, do it very quickly so they don't eat up too much time, but if we can start over here. Good morning. My name is Carl Meacham. I'm the Director of the Americas Program here at CSIS, and I'm a co-sponsor of this event, which I think will be really exciting, and we really look forward to hearing your presentation. Energy in the Americas is a growth industry for certain, and it's definitely something that I think folks need to understand better, and we need to bring attention to the promise that this region holds. So thanks for coming. Michelle Melton, CSIS Energy Program. Molly Walton also with the Energy Program here at CSIS. And I'm Perry Lindstrom. I'm with the Energy Information Administration, and one of the things I work on is the International Energy Outlook, so this will be very helpful. Thank you. Bill Bell with Mitsui USA. Jackie Mendoza, Energy Intelligence Group. Jennifer Michael with Bechtel. Colleen Newman, I'm an independent consultant with Abington Strategies. Gwen Anderson, Energy, IRG, Agility. Pineda Ferma, Chevron. Winston Thompson, Embassy of Fiji. Melton Eaton, Brattleboro Energy Committee, and Ethan Allen Institute. Andy Harding, USA Synthetic Fuel Corporation. Michelle Johnson also with USA Synthetic Fuel. Shailene Koyuket with the IFC. Morning, I'm Rory Jones with IFC, Power and Renewables. Tatiana Riaram from the company CIFI. We are a financial institution. Our nature is Latin America and the Caribbean. Chun Gyeongsang from World Bank. Vivian Foster, Sector Manager, Sustainable Energy Department at the World Bank. Steve Halloway, Sustainable Energy for All Team, World Bank. Great. Well, thank you. Actually, this is quite a diverse group. I think this is great. I think, Ethan, you've got a number of different interested parties here at the table, so take it away. Let me just hand it straight to Carrie from our friends at the Multilateral Investment Fund. Well, thank you very much to CSIS for giving us this venue. Ethan and I have been launching what is our second year of the climate scope all over Latin America, but we've yet to do it here in D.C., so we thought it would be a good opportunity to speak to a different crowd this morning. So I'm just going to very briefly give you some background on why the Multilateral Investment Fund, which is a window of the Inter-American Development Bank, chose to finance this climate scope, a bit about who we thought it would be useful for, and then I'm going to turn it over to Ethan to go through the methodology, the results, and then we can talk about next steps and take any of your questions. So we hope we can get through the presentation relatively quickly and have time for discussion. So again, just very briefly, the Multilateral Investment Fund, for those who are not aware of it, it's about a $2 billion fund that supports the private sector within the Inter-American Development Bank. 70% of that support comes in the form of grants or technical assistance, which makes us a bit of a rarity in the multilateral community. But our niche was really to, initially, to help develop the private sector on the regulatory side, but we've since evolved in terms of focusing on our primary beneficiaries, which are small firms, small farms and micro and small and medium enterprises, and the poor and low-income households that they generally serve. So we think of empowering these clients through three sets of tools, access to finance, so we've done a lot of work in remittances, microfinance, things like that, access to markets and skills. We do a lot with youth training, with value chains, with letting small firms move up the aggregate value chain, and with basic services and green growth, which is the area that I represent, which includes all of our climate work. So again, we're funded by 39 donors who have a high risk tolerance and let us give away 70% of their money each year in the form of grants, which we hope is very catalytic, very innovative, and we can take a lot of risk that other donors are not always able to do. Next slide, thanks. This is, again, just a brief snapshot of what I went over. We're about a $2 billion fund, we do about $100 million worth a year, 70% of that roughly in the form of grants, and then we do about 23% in equity in venture capital and small business, microfinance funds, things like that, and a bit of lending. I'll move on to some specific project examples and clean energy just to give you a sense of the kinds of things we finance. We've been trying to be more and more active within the global international climate finance funds, so we're executing projects in Mexico and Honduras with respect to the Forest Investment Fund and the Renewable Energy Fund. We did the first ever remittance-driven market for, in this case, it was solar devices in Haiti. So we used remittances sent by families in the United States to fund the purchase of solar lanterns in Haiti, and that's kind of an example of the type of project we would fund. We're working on ESCO markets and ESCO market finance in Colombia, and we have a green microfinance program, so I'm happy to discuss any of that later. But let's get into the climate scope. What is the climate scope? So it is a report, it is a ranking, but it is most primarily a tool, and it's an online tool which is very interactive, which we'll show you, and we really see it very much as a tool. Now the ranking tends to garner some of the interest because we do ranked countries, but it's really to delve into these clean energy markets of these countries and figure out where the market opportunities are for both small and large players and where the market's going in general. So we developed it, the Multilateral Investment Fund with our partner, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, and this is our second year of production, so we're able to do a little bit of year on year data, but we are still at the very early stages, so we very much welcome the input of many of the people around this table who I think have a lot of insight. Finally, why we did it? So we started with this perspective of this is a region which is immensely diverse in terms of its natural resource potential. It's forest, it's fresh water, it's solar, and yet when Bloomberg put together some of these international numbers on climate finance, this region only captured about 6% of the global climate clean energy investment, and we thought that that was disproportionately low given the resource base. So our theory was that there was a market failure in terms of information and that the kind of information investors would need to come into the clean energy space in this region was not available, it wasn't timely, and it wasn't in a way that they could use to make investment decisions. So with our focus again on the small players in the market, we figured for the little guys this was even more of a challenge, so we decided to put together a tool that would help bring some of this information and catalyze more investment opportunities all over the spectrum in terms of the size of firms. So we kind of divided into, next slide, thanks, into five different kinds of users, and we hope that given the representation around the table, you can tell us if you think that that corresponds. For policymakers, clearly there's a section in the report that looks at the regulatory framework, and there's a lot of other interesting work going on on this side, and I hope that the World Bank will have a chance to talk about it, but again the idea was could policymakers look at what other countries are doing, could they have an open dialogue with those countries, could there be some basis for looking at different policy options? Entrepreneurs, clearly a focus of ours is to try and get project developers in the region. Clean energy users in terms of the value chain, so this is where we did a lot of work to try and put together where the gaps in the clean energy market are in each of these countries and where there might be opportunities for operations and maintenance, for example, not just for the big project developers, but for the smaller opportunities as well. And then finally, the data set that we've made available we hope is useful for the academic community and the think tank community, so we again are looking for all of your feedback. So now I'm going to turn it over to Ethan, and we'll wrap up at the end in terms of what our next steps are. Thank you. Thanks everyone. Hi, I'm Ethan Zinler with Bloomberg New Energy Finance. First, of course, I want to say thanks to David and to Tamali and to Annie from CSIS and to Sarah Ladislaw, I don't think is here, but who helped to put this together for hosting us here. We really do greatly appreciate. It's really quite a venue. Of course, I did David pointed out to me as we walked in. This is the Exxon mobile room, so we have to thank them for sponsoring us here today as well. And of course, I want to say thanks to Kerry and the Multilateral Investment Fund who we've worked with now for a few years and are terrific in terms of really being active about one to think creatively around a lot of these issues. So what I'm going to do is talk a little bit about global clean energy just to give a bit of a context. I think probably based on the background, I heard that most people around the number of you were probably fairly familiar with this stuff, but I'll still kind of give a bit of a primer. Then talk a little and within that talk about LADAM investment trends that we've seen LADAM and Caribbean investment trends. And then I'll talk specifically about the climate scope methodology a bit, although I won't kill you with the details. The book, all of you have a book and there's literally I think about 20 pages of methodology description in there which I encourage you to use for bedtime reading tonight. And then I'll talk a little bit about the results and then I'm going to hand it back to Kerry to talk about plans for where we go with this project from here. So for those of you who don't know us and I think a number of you do, but we are essentially a market research division of Bloomberg focused on new energy technologies. We have roughly 200 people around the world that are focused on collecting information, analyzing it and understanding as best we can how the newer energy technologies work and how the energy infrastructure landscape is changing. Clients include major investors such as hedge funds and others who are looking to make smart investments in this sector. Some of the world's largest manufacturers and equipment providers, developers, utilities and in a number of cases governments and NGOs as well including the U.S. government through the U.S. Department of Energy, the State Department, Department of Commerce and the Department of Defense and some others. So let me start again. Let's just talk globally for a second. One of the main things that our firm does is track flows of capital into clean energy. And before I go on, let me sort of say what our definition of clean energy is and this is sort of an apolitical statement. This is simply when we started the firm 10 years ago, we wanted to track what we viewed as newer technologies. So what we do include into the numbers that we count are renewables in the traditional sense, wind, solar, geothermal, biofuels we include as well and we include small hydro but not large hydro because it's sort of a more established technology. And we include what we call energy smart technologies now which are things like smart meters, power storage, technology investments, things like that. We don't try to capture every investment in every say window that gets put in place that's an energy efficiency investment. We do try and focus on the technology side of that. What we don't count is natural gas and we don't count nuclear. Again, not a political statement just that we were a new firm trying to capture new dollar flows for new technologies. So just by way of background, that's what you're looking at here. And what you can see is that we've seen this incredible run up of investment in clean energy companies and projects that took place all the way up into 2008 and 2009. And frankly, those first bunch of years, particularly as things peaked around then, there was a bit of a tracking against the global oil price. And as oil prices went higher, investors got more interested in this stuff. Of course, there was also a great deal of policy support that came out of Europe. 2008 and 2009 recession, we saw a leveling of investment. But then 2010 and 2011, actually the industry saw a lot more new capital flow into it. And then this is almost entirely, by the way, private money we're talking about here. And that was largely due to the stimulus packages in the United States and China and other places that really spurred a tremendous amount of new flows into clean energy. We have since seen decline from 2011 to 2012, and we are projecting we'll see another decline from 2012 to 2013 in terms of total investment. There's a bad reason for this, which is there's been some policy weakening and the number of markets and less support for the industry. But there's also a good reason for this, which is that the cost of clean energy technologies has been declining. So you can essentially deploy the same amount of megawatts of clean energy now as you could a few years ago, but for less cost, the unit costs are down. So I'll talk a little more about that in just a moment. One plug, if I could, I continue to hear this industry referred to as, quote, unquote, alternative energy. I think that is a dated term. If you look at the amount of money that flows into clean energy now, this is just looking at generating power generating assets, and you look at the amount that was put into fossil fuel power generating assets, the numbers aren't that different anymore. Clearly that's not the majority that's in clean energy, but it's not so far, not such a small minority that alternative energy is really a proper name for this. These are new energy technologies. They're clean energy technologies, but they're not alternative by any means. So who's sort of the global leader in terms of clean energy investment? I know a number of you around the table probably know this, but China last year, by far and away, saw the most new money invested in clean energy projects and companies with about $65 billion. The U.S. saw a substantial decline down to $35 billion. The U.S. decline was in large part because we saw a number of stimulus programs expire. The first LADAM country that you see on that list is Brazil, with a bit over $5 billion for 2012, but that was a decline, and I'll talk a little bit more about Brazil in just a moment. Now, of course, as I mentioned a moment ago, one of the major things that's driving the decline in investment dollars is the fact that the cost of clean energy technologies is also declining. So this is just a very, very high level look at the cost of a typical solar module, the panel that you put up on your roof on a dollar per watt basis. And what you can see, of course, is that over four years we saw the price drop from a bit over $4 a watt to about a dollar a watt in 2012. Actually, the number this year is probably more in the range of 60, 70 cents per watt. So it's continued to decline, although it's pretty much leveled out this year. Now, that doesn't mean that all markets are created, created equal, and of course this has eventually, does have relevance to Latin America and other emerging markets. Not all markets are created equal when it comes to the end cost of putting a photovoltaic system on your roof. This is just a quick look here at the actual costs. Let's see if this works. Can you see the cursor? Yeah, okay. So the bottom line is actually a look at the underlying cost of the equipment that I was just talking about. If you were to buy an actual Chinese made solar module, like I said, you're trending at under a dollar a watt. If you want to get that up on your roof with a small system in Germany, the average cost that we've seen based on disclosures through regulators is somewhere around $2 a watt. That's your green line, and you can see how much that's declined. But this is California and Japan up here, and you can see how much more expensive it is in these markets. A big discrepancy. There are a number of reasons for this. One, some would argue that it's more expensive to get projects permitted. You need more lawyers, more paperwork to get things done in these newer markets. Two, I think one of the big things is that Germany has simply been the largest market by far in terms of installations, and they've gotten more experienced at it, and they've experienced some significant economies of scale. But the main point being here is that it's great that the equipment costs have dropped, but there's a lot more work to be done on reducing the other associated costs. That's sort of a good news, bad news story. The good news is that we're not relying on technology to sort of solve this. We're just talking about finding ways to make systems better and get people to do the work more efficiently. And so we're not relying on continual improvements in the technologies to drive costs down. We have seen a similar story on the decline of wind turbines, but not quite as sharp a decline. And one of the things that we do is, and this is based on data that we collect from actual contracts that are signed in the marketplace, we have seen that we see about a third of the contracts in the market very roughly on a nondisclosure basis. And what you can see just sort of interestingly enough is that the cost, and apologies that this is actually millions of euros per megawatt, but you can see that the prices have declined. This is when turbines are for delivery. So you can see for the second half of delivery of 2013, 0.82 million euros per megawatt. This line here splits and we start tracking two kinds of turbines, basically the newer kinds that are more efficient in lower wind speeds. And the older models, which are a little smaller, which work better in higher wind speeds. And what you can see is you can basically get a really good deal on an older model turbine, but you aren't necessarily going to get quite as good deal on a newer model turbine. Why this matters to Latin America to some extent is that I would argue that you still have some spectacular wind resources in Latin America that are unexploited. And even the old turbine models, which are lower efficiency, could work perfectly well down there. And obviously, you enjoy a discounted price if you buy those as opposed to the newer ones. So finally, a last sort of comment on globalized, on the global picture before we talk a little more locally here. Again, one of the things that we do every quarter is we do a levelized cost of energy analysis. There's a number of ways to do this. And frankly, I'll be the first to admit that LCOE, as it's called, isn't always the best way to account for renewable energy because renewables are very different, obviously, than fossil fuels, right? You make the investment in the project up front, all of it, and then you pay basically nothing. There's no fuel costs going forward and there's no fuel risk going forward. The wind is free, the sun is free. The only question is how much will it blow and how much, you know, what sun will you get? So you're doing a, it's a little apples to oranges. I sort of put that out there as a caveat. But like I said, one of the things we do look at is if you said, if I were the owner of a project and I wanted to earn a 10% return on investment on that project, how much would I have to sell the juice for in order to earn that rate of return? There are a lot of assumptions that are built into this, but this is a ballpark. And what you can see is that there's price ranges for these different technologies. We do this every quarter. The little gray dots sort of show the different country scenarios that we've looked at. And obviously there's a large amount of variation depending on where you are. But bottom line on it is that these purple and light blue dots show our most recent central scenarios. And the main point I guess I would make is that if you're looking at fossil generation down here and you're looking at some of these other technologies up here, there's competition going on. And now this is without subsidies. I do want to emphasize this. There is actual competition that goes on. And we've particularly seen this in places like Brazil where they've held tenders for contracts and we've seen wind underbid other technologies on a cost basis without subsidies. So while it's by no means a clear picture that one's cheaper than the other always everywhere, there are cases where wind and solar are now truly cost competitive. And by the way, geothermal particularly very cost competitive if you have the right conditions and there are limited places. So we're in a very interesting point of time in our industry where basically the long story short of clean energy had been where there were good subsidies, that's where investment went. That's where deployment took place. And where there weren't, that's where you saw almost no activity. But as we transition to a period where these technologies are truly cost competitive, you're going to see more activity that's not regulatory driven. And actually I think that Latin America is one of those places where we're going to see some of that because you have some very high electricity prices down there that are going to generate a lot of interest. So actually just jump ahead. So what is the Latin America opportunities and challenges for clean energy? One, terrific natural resources across a lot of the region that generally speaking are unexploited in terms of renewables. We have seen strong economic growth rates. I think Brazil certainly has faltered a bit recently, but other countries in the region have been doing generally quite well over the last four or five years. I know there's major exceptions to that, but overall these have been emerging markets. Like I said, very high electricity prices in a number of cases. And this is very important for clean energy because if you're offsetting a domestic source for someone in their house or elsewhere, if it's very expensive and they can then replace that, let's say, if they're paying who knows 20 cents a kilowatt hour for electricity, basically residential solar becomes much more of an economically viable option for them because they're offsetting very expensive electricity. As I mentioned before, rapidly falling equipment costs. And then every country, I would argue in the world, has some degree of energy security concerns. And certainly I know we could hear from our friends here at CSIS who know a lot more about this than I do, but every one of these nations has these. I don't, you may notice that I don't put climate as one of the opportunities on the list. I'm sort of a cynic about this. I don't believe that most policymaking gets done around dealing with climate change. It gets done around energy security issues, economic development issues. But that's still sufficient. This can be sufficient motivators for actual activity. Challenges is that there are a number of new policies that are really relatively untested. And while there's been a lot of great stuff proposed, we have to see unfollow-through. Obviously we have foreign investors who can be wary about the risks, the local risks of currency and sovereign risks. And then we also have a relatively new and not much in the way of actual local supply chains in a lot of these countries, which is not surprising since they are new markets for clean energy. So now this is just a look at total investment in Latin America. This is actually a little bit newer than some of the data that's in the climate scope. So I just want to caveat that. And just to emphasize, I think one of the interesting things that's going on this year, by the way, this is through three quarters. So by the time we get through the fourth quarter of this year, the 2013 number will be higher, but probably lower than it was in 2012, though not by a lot. We're seeing a lot of investment in this quarter. But one of the main takeaways, I guess I would point out here, is that Brazil traditionally, the largest country in the region, obviously, with 200 million people, had really been the driver of clean energy investment back 2008 through 11. And we've seen a very sharp drop off of investment in Brazil clean energy this year for a variety of reasons. We think it will bounce back. But part of it is that we're in kind of an interesting period between when a number of projects have been tendered and when they need to get financed. So we think we'll see a rebound next year. But also the Brazilian economy has slowed. And that's definitely had an impact. But the real interesting story, at least to me, is the activity that we're seeing now in other markets. And this will be the first year that we've tracked this, where the majority of investment in Latin America takes place outside of Brazil. And in particular, there's some great, great activity taking place in Mexico, Chile, Uruguay. We think we'll see over a billion dollars in new clean energy investment in this calendar year, which is a lot of money for a small country. So there's a lot of diversification that's happening geographically. There's also a lot of diversification that's happening in terms of the technology. So this sort of mirrors, to some degree, what I was talking about with geography. So if you roll the clock back to 2008, just over, I'd say, a majority of the money in 2008 went into biofuels in the region. And the vast majority of that went into Brazilian biofuels. And as that market has, we've seen very little invested in biofuels overall through the region over the last few years. You've seen that bar shrink there. And then as you look at wind, you can see wind has really come on strong. And the market that had always puzzled me, frankly, as someone has been doing this for about eight years now, is solar. We saw basically no activity down there in Latin America on PV or solar thermal. I think the main reason is because it was viewed as too expensive. And to some large degree, that was true. But now, we're this year, we're seeing serious growth in the photovoltaic industry across Latin America with some very interesting projects being developed in places like Chile and Mexico. And even Brazil, which had basically been resistant to doing anything in solar, held its first tender in which solar was able to participate recently. So we'll see probably over a billion dollars investment in solar in Latin America for the first time this year. Excuse me. In terms of capacity additions, about leveled, about three and a quarter gigawatts. Actually, the number for 2012 would be a little bit higher. This is just an accounting issue. There's about four or 500 megawatts of wind in Brazil that we didn't count at the end of last year. It was built, but it wasn't connected to any transmission. So we didn't count it. But now it's online. And so the number actually is a bit higher than that. I won't go through this in great detail, but this is based on some of the climate scope research we'll get into more of in a moment. So one of the things that our firm has done as part of this project, but also just generally, has been to track policies across Latin America and the Caribbean. And when we did climate scope the first time, we basically counted 80 what we deemed to be clean energy friendly policies across the region. We did the second time at the end of last year, we counted 110. So clearly there's been more activity just in terms of sheer policymaking. Now I know that number of policies is a very sort of crude metric for measuring policy progress. But I would point out that what we've seen in a number of cases in the region are these tender, the tender processing, where you hold essentially you hold auctions, reverse auctions, and you invite developers to come along and bid in and offer to sell their electricity at the lowest price to develop their project. And we've seen activity, a lot of that in Brazil, but certainly also in places like Peru and in Uruguay, which is driving a lot of activity. And now we're hearing more and more about this potentially in Mexico and other places as well. And I would point out that the tenders are sort of the policy flavor of the moment, not just in Latin America, but in other parts of the world. In fact, in other parts of the world, like Germany and elsewhere, where they spent a tremendous amount on subsidizing clean energy, they're now trying to think, well, how can we go out and make sure that the market bids in and actually we get clean energy for the lowest possible price? And this has been a concern because some of the liabilities that have been incurred in places like Spain, Italy, and Germany are enormous tied to the feed-in tariffs that they established to support clean energy. So to some degree, you could say Latin America is kind of on the cutting edge of all this and you've got other markets around the world, other regulators looking at these examples, particularly Brazil. And people have been, some of the prices that have been, like I mentioned a moment ago, some of the prices that we've seen for wind have been unbelievably cheap in Brazil and have gotten some people in other parts of the world to wonder, why can't we have as low prices as Brazil has? Okay, so finally, let me talk about the climate scope. So, as Kerry pointed out, I sort of prefaced this all by saying the main goal of the climate scope is to gather a whole lot of information and make it available to the public in ways that they can use. And by the public, as Kerry mentioned, I mean, my orientation is very much towards the business community and wanting to provide something that looks a little bit like a kind of playbook that they can use to make important investment decisions across this region. I'm fully aware that nobody makes a multi-billion dollar decision about whether to build a wind turbine plant in a country based on a four-page profile in a report, but I still think it's a useful, hopeful guidebook for people who don't know that much and are interested in the region. We do do scoring, as Kerry mentioned, but the main goal here is to just simply make a lot of data available and to gather a lot of data. And I think we've, frankly, we've had some very good momentum. And of course, the more we do this, the more cooperation we get from local regulators and others in terms of providing us information. Okay. So, how do we actually compile a climate scope score? Every country gets a, basically, a zero to five score across the region, five being best, zero being worst. And nobody in Latin America scored, I think, above about a two and a half. That's a reflection of the fact that the market's early, that there's more development to go, and, you know, that there's plenty of opportunities ahead. The way we compile this score is by gathering information for 39 separate indicators, which fall into four buckets that we call parameters. And then we weight these buckets towards a final, final score. And so the first is the enabling framework. The second is clean energy investment in climate financing. Third is low carbon business and value chains. And the fourth is greenhouse management activities. Because we know that the devil's in the details and the weighting is so critical, we try to empower the users to understand the underlying data and to, frankly, adjust the weights as they see fit as well. And I'll show you how that works. But quickly, on what these actual, what these actual parameters consist of, so the enabling framework, we looked at the policy and regulation landscape in a given country. We looked at the level of clean energy market penetration, so in other words, deployment of actual capacity. We looked at how price attractive a market was. So we actually gave countries credit for having higher prices. I know that's counterintuitive, but that creates a better market opportunity for clean energy. We looked at the market size expectation based on economic growth rates in a given country. For the clean energy investment and climate financing parameter, we looked at total dollars invested. That's something that we track pretty closely. We looked at the availability of local financial institutions. We did a very comprehensive survey of green microfinance institutions across the region, thanks really and largely to the expertise of the Multilateral Investment Fund. Frankly, it's not anything that we knew anything about going into this to try and get a sense of how many green MFI's there are in the region. We looked at the cost of debt as best it could be estimated, which is hard in some countries where there's very little activity. Then on the low carbon business and value chains, it was actually relatively simple. We took the value chains as we look at them for wind, solar, these other technologies, and we simply said, is there anybody in this country that's making wind turbine blades? Is there anybody in this country who can provide operations and maintenance services on a solar plant? It was a pretty simple grid and we simply checked the box if there was someone there or not. Then finally, for greenhouse gas management activities, we looked at carbon offsets, the risk of getting a carbon project to completion, whether or not the local government's made any carbon policy commitments in terms of targets and corporate awareness of this. Now, let's see if I can actually show you how this works for one moment. The point of this, as I mentioned, is you can go on the site and you can look at the actual climate scope results. Like I said, based on the weighting that we started with, the default weighting, you see 40 percent for enabling framework, 30 percent, et cetera, for these different major parameters. This is how the countries stack up. We really do encourage you, if you think we didn't weight it right, go ahead and reweight it yourself. You can go ahead and if you say, okay, I want to make the enabling framework worth 34 percent and I want to move this one over here a little bit. When you do that, you can see it reshuffles how the countries rank. If you, for instance, want to look a little closer at, say, Central America and how those rankings change, you'll notice that the bubbles kind of move and it's kind of cool, whatever, and you can see how that changes. The main point being that you can play with this yourself and come to your own conclusions. The other thing is that the underlying data is also available and you can do the same thing. You simply download this and then as you change the weights, you can get charts that show the different ways that they look or you can look individually by country. I'm looking at the Dominican Republic right here and you can see each one of the inputs and the scores that they got for those and then if you want to look at, I don't know, you want to see the amount of capacity added year on year in these countries and the different technologies, that's all they are, go crazy, you know, be a nerd like me and enjoy this. So that's out there and that's really one of the main points, as I mentioned, is just to make this information available. These are slides that I was going to show you when the internet didn't work, but luckily it did. Okay, so in terms of the actual scores, you know, this is just a look at our 2013 numbers and working and you can see that Brazil is the number one country that we scored for this year. Chile, number two, you can see it moved up a bit and Nicaragua, which I think definitely surprised some people, is in the top three as well. I'll talk a little bit about those in just a moment. I don't want to sort of foreshadow too much, but given Brazil's performance this year, I think it's pretty unlikely that they'll be number one next year, although the policy framework to some degree is improved by the fact that they're now actually including solar in their tender processes and we're seeing more activity taking place on the state level in Brazil as well. Chile is a really interesting example of active policy make. I'll talk a bit more about all of those in just a moment, but you'll see that in a number of cases, the Caribbean countries are pretty far down the list. I think generally we view these countries as having enormous opportunities for clean energy development. They burn a lot of diesel for power in cases. They're literally island nations. They have all kinds of energy security reasons to want to increase their renewable capacity, but they haven't done much in many cases to be honest, and so there are exceptions of course, but that's generally why you'll find a number of them further down the list here. So just very quickly, a few comments on different countries. I'm sort of conscious now that I'm going on and on here, but the Dominican Republic where I was just actually last week is a fascinating case. We saw them move up seven spots this year with their basically some large degree because they saw a lot of new clean energy investment last year in wind and solar project in particular, but they've also set some targets on policies. They're looking to get 10% electricity generation by 2015. They have approved a feed-in tariff, and they've got these other policies as well. Panama dropped seven places. Not much activity last year. Few carbon, little carbon activity that dropped their score. There's a lot of stability though in the index year to year. So walking just through the top three and sort of what got them there, Nicaragua, where Kerry and I were about a month ago now to present these results locally. And as you might imagine, countries that score high have started to take notice of this. And in fact, Kerry can talk more to this also. One of the nice things we've seen from year one to year two is the countries that didn't score high have been interested in figuring out how to score higher the next year. And that's, I think, has motivated a little bit of policy work, but Kerry knows better than I do on this. But again, we look at Nicaragua. 40% of their install power capacity is renewables. That, yes, that includes large hydro, but there's actually most of it is not large hydro. There's a lot of potential for rural electrification as well, which again, in sort of an inverse world, we do countries that have lower levels of electricity. We view as higher opportunity markets. And I think Nicaragua is about 75% electrification rate. So that's not great for Latin America. Certainly not as bad as Haiti, which is at 40%, but not great. In terms of investment, we saw a lot of money go in there last year, the development of some projects. There is a limited amount of value chain activity, as you might imagine, in a small country. And I think inevitably this third parameter is always going to be a hard one for small countries. But that's sort of the nature of the beast, and hopefully it all evens out in the end. And then in terms of greenhouse gas stuff, nine CDM projects and a possibility for more as well. Chile, a very liberalized power market, high power demand, an increase in renewable generation capacity. I would say this about Chile also is that a lot of the activity that we're seeing going on there is for dedicated projects. So for those who are in the mining industry and are at the far edges of the grid of an unreliable grid, they have a lot of motivation to want to build their own power generation to self-supply. And we're seeing that in Mexico too, actually, for that matter in other countries. And there is a real opportunity there for manufacturers who have been relying on creaky grids for some time for their electricity. Again, clean energy investment grew, good value chains for biomass and waste, although not as much in other areas. And they do have set a emissions reduction target in Chile, which ended up placing them high on our list. Finally, in Brazil, as I mentioned, I think this may be the last year we see Brazil at the top of the list, but we'll see when we run the numbers. But they have consistently had good policies, or generally I should say. The tender system they've held there has really helped pave the way for renewable development and has actually, I think, been somewhat influential with other countries across the region as well. Investment, though, did drop a lot in 2012 from 2011, and it's going to drop a lot more from 2012 to 2013. And that will eventually affect its score. The value chain buildout has been strong in Brazil. As you might imagine, it's the biggest country in the region. One other thing which David actually was asking me about the other day is that Brazil also has one of these so-called domestic content rules in place, which means that in order for you to receive BNDS development bank financing locally, if you win a contract under these tenders for wind, there are increasingly stringent requirements that the wind turbine equipment that you source be made locally. And actually, we are seeing a number of the biggest players start to add capacity in Brazil in part to comply with these fairly stringent rules that are, as I said, becoming more stringent. And then also what we've seen with a number of companies that are in Brazil having interest in actually disclosing the greenhouse gas management activities, and that boosted their score in that regard as well. So with all that, let me hand it back to Kerry and say thanks very much for bearing with me through all of that. Great. Thank you. So, again, as a small fund, the point of us financing what is essentially a knowledge product instead of an actual project on the ground is to catalyze people to use it to make investment decisions. So it can only be, it's only sort of worth our financing and from our donor's perspective, if it achieves that. So what we've seen, we've had one edition that was published in June 2013, 2012 at the Rio Plus 20 Summit, and the second edition just published. We did just a very quick and dirty assessment of whether or not people found it useful. We are actually finding a pretty high level of utility. The case of Nicaragua is interesting and I know there may be some skepticism around the table about the capacity of that particular country on the clean energy space. But this is a government that actually formed a task force using the climate scope as a policy tool to try and work through the indicators on which they scored poorly and to really try and address some of the remaining issues. And that's one of the reasons that we did an event because now there's this new focus on the clean energy value chain as a result of the fact that that was one of the lower scoring categories for Nicaragua. So I think it also shows that you don't have to be a large economy to do well in the clean energy space. That's the other message given that not everybody's going to be a Brazil, that there's a lot of opportunity for smaller countries. And again, we think that it's useful. We hope so and we're looking for feedback constantly. And then the next step for the climate scope is that we're going to go global. So starting next year in 2014, the U.K. has decided to come in as a partner through DFID and USAID to expand the climate scope to an additional 26 countries, 25 countries I believe in Africa and Asia. So starting in 2014, we will be able to have some really interesting cross regional comparisons. And we hope to bring an additional perspective to investors that are comparing a Brazil versus a state level in China or India versus some of the Sub-Saharan African economies. So in that sense, this is an ongoing project. We're interested in talking to other potential donors. If there's interest for expanding this even further, both public and private donors are very welcome. So if there are additional aspects to the climate scope that we can discuss offline, we're very much interested in that. And again, we'd really like to get your feedback. We've got a way to do that online or you can just contact us directly. But getting the right data from the countries has really been a challenge. And so as it becomes a higher visibility information tool, we're getting better feedback from the energy ministries, from the finance ministries that are supplying us this data. And so anything that those who are active in those countries can do to help improve the quality of the data that we get, that's what has to feed into the model. So we thank you very much and very much looking forward to this discussion. Great. Okay. Thank you, Kerry and Ethan. This is a great presentation. And we'll go into the Q&A. I think it'd be good for people to identify themselves. Again, we had several people join us and I actually forgot the back row. So I apologize for that in the initial introduction. So if you can sort of restate who you're representing, that would be great. I was going to ask one question just to follow up on the responses you get from the countries you're looking at. So you've kind of given the positive side, which is, okay, they see these things and they say, okay, you know, how can I get my ranking up? But how much pushback do you get by saying, well, you don't really understand what you're looking at, which is also sometimes useful as a tool to get focus on it. But I was just wondering what kind of responses are you getting overall about the way in which you rank countries? It's always a dangerous thing to be ranking countries. And then Ethan can come in. So there is very much at the macro level, and especially our IFC folks have the bruises to attest to it in terms of the doing business. And maybe people can comment on that. There is a sentiment against the sort of from the borrowing country perspective against some of the ratings. So we had a bit of that. And not necessarily from countries that scored poorly, just more of a statement of principle that they did not appreciate being ranked. But we were, I was in the Caribbean two weeks ago where, you know, they're very much at the bottom of the list. And fortunately, this index has the upside of saying, look, you're ranked low because you're not taking advantage of all this opportunity. It's not such a negative. It's in terms of clean energy pricing, especially when you look at the electricity prices in the Caribbean, it's really, it can be catalytic. And we saw Jamaica through the Development Bank of Jamaica and the authorities in Jamaica. And I would say in Barbados, there is actually the beginnings of some interest in trying to take a few policy steps that might facilitate some of the investment. So it's not been, it's been a bit vocal, but not so vigorous. And I think the point is this is actionable and leads you to a path where you could improve your score versus being sort of a pejorative ranking. But Ethan knows more. I mean, I think Kerry's much more on the receiving end of those kinds of things. And I am, to be honest with you, and of course, countries that do well, they love us. I'm huge in the Dominican Republic. But I will say this, like I said, and I try to emphasize it in the presentation, which is that, look, as a research firm, we're very conscious of the fact that, you know, numbers are numbers and there's quantitative data gathering. It's great. But at the end of the day, you make qualitative decisions about how you mix those numbers together. And I, for the first to recognize that there's no one way to do this. And I think that's why we really tried to go out of our way to give users the opportunity to go in and basically look at individual pieces of it. They want to take issue with it. Great. Or if they want to readjust the weight so that they come out on top somehow, good for them. Go for it. But that's sort of my feeling is if we can be fairly transparent as we can be about the aggregated data, then hopefully that reduces some of the complaints. Our attention is that this is be as un-black box as we can make it. It's a very good question. And I'll say that the single hardest part of all this has been how do you assign a score to a country's policy regime and policy efforts? Very difficult to do. Without going to too much details, let's tell you sort of how we tried to go about it, which was that we had a panel of about 18, it was 18 outside experts from industry, from government outside, without attachments to the specific countries, or if they did have an attachment to one country, they couldn't judge on that country. And we took all the 110 policies that we had gathered and we divided them into eight different policy types, which I can't remember all of them, but they're in I think page 20 of this thing here. And we simply divided those policies up and then we parceled them out to the experts and we said, okay, now you need to judge each of these policies individually on a number of criteria. And one of them was policy ambition. And another one I believe was how realistic that policy was going to be. Like I said, I'm the first to admit that when you bring in people to give their sort of outside opinion, it's opinion, but we did really go out of our way to try and separate them out and have the policies looked at very much on their own terms individually by different types of experts in those areas. So that's one area that we tried to take into account. I think it's a fair criticism to say that on the, particularly on the value chain, there'll always be a sort of a negative effect on smaller, less developed countries because look, the reality is, you know, should Nicaragua host or El Salvador host every single set segment of the wind manufacturing chain? Probably not, right? So to some degree, they're always going to be, they're going to be, I think hurt a little bit by that, but we do think that overall that it does kind of come out in the wash. And again, we try and give people the opportunity to adjust the weights, but it's a good question. It's an ongoing challenge. And frankly, as we, and you see these countries here, this is the global climate scope that we're doing for this year. And the kind of range of economic development that we've seen is about to go like this because obviously, you know, in the, in the Americas and the region that we were looking at, Haiti really, you know, is obviously an incredibly poor country and is at the bottom of the list in terms of economic development. But it's really kind of an outlier compared to most of the rest of Latin America in terms of its wealth. But now we're going to look at sub-Saharan Africa. And so the range of economic development is that much wider. And so this, the question you raise is going to be all the more challenging for us going forward. Yeah, Bill Bill Metsui, can you talk a little bit about how transmission was considered? And if I can add on to that one issue that I thought might be interesting to have you talk about a little bit is not only the transmission part, but also the reliability question. And how does a system with really poor reliability, how does that weight into this? Does that help a renewable energy rating or does it not have much influence on it? Okay, so on the second question, we didn't take into account outages last year, but it's a very good point. We are going to take them into account this year because it's in particular, I think because we felt that it was even more of an issue in some of these lesser developed countries. So that is something we're going to take into greater account. Transmission is a good question as well. We do have a really look at sort of a power market, we give a power market score in which we ask a series of fairly binary questions about how liberalized the market is and how easy it is generally to get on the grid. But it's a very hard one to quantify for us. And I think it's certainly, you know, we're certainly open to other kinds of ideas about how to integrate it because as we've seen in Brazil in particular, but of course places like China, even much more so, projects can get built but not necessarily connected to anything. Or they'll get built and then they'll sit for six months and then get connected to something which is a more realistic possibility. But I'm happy to chat with you a little more offline because we certainly open to more ideas. We tried to get, pose a series of questions about the power market structure generally, but one of the challenges I think for us was sort of where do we draw the red line between being focused on clean energies and clean energy policies and then just getting into a complete market assessment about everything that's going on in an energy market in Latin America. We frankly didn't want to do that because that's just, it was beyond our scope for this. Thanks very much. Well, it's really exciting to see a second year of data on climate scope and particularly to hear that the policy makers are really sitting up and taking notice and that it's motivating change. That's fabulous. Just last week we had the sustainable energy for all advisory board meeting as you know and this whole issue of the enabling environment comes up again and again. So I think there's tremendous demand for this kind of work. My question is really around the changes because as you say it's the first year we can actually see the delta in the index. What's driving the changes in the ranking that you see? In which of your indicators are actually the most volatile? Is it the financing ones? Is it the policy ones? I'd just be interested to understand that. I also had a question as to whether the policy methodology has evolved from last year. We had heard that you had added some additional bells and whistles to it, but it would be interesting to understand how it's evolving. So I would say the thing that provides the highest level of volatility and probably will going forward are dollar investments in these countries and deployment levels. So and there'll be an interesting kind of echo effect where you'll see say for this year in 2013 we're seeing about a billion dollars in Uruguay and clean energy deployment investment and then a lot of that capacity will come on line next year or the year after and that'll have a positive effect. But can Uruguay attract a billion dollars in investment in 2014? You know for small countries it's going to be hard to do. So I would say that if I I don't you know we haven't quantified it exactly but that's the the dollar and the megawatts that's going to be the hardest because as versus countries overall size and this gets I think to the earlier question about level of development of a country that's the hardest thing to kind of control for and adjust. And so you're going to have some countries that have incredible banner years and that boosts them up the rankings and then they're going to have tougher years afterwards. It's going to be hard to sustain that I think in some cases. In terms of the policy methodology well first thing I think we did is we expanded the number of people that we were talking to in terms of getting their input. The second thing was that we divide and I have to go back and check and it's and it is articulated in here a little more clearly but what we did was we tried to divorce any analysis of policy by from any bias that anybody might have towards or against a given country for the most part by separating the policies into policy types and so then the thought was okay are you a feed-in tariff policy expert? Yes then you will analyze you know we will give you a slew of you know I don't know if there are other but let's say five feed-in tariffs from different countries and we will ask you to assess those and give that kind of analysis so we tried to separate out any kind of sort of bias that people might have for or against a given country but it's it's a it's a challenge and I'm happy to chat with you more about it offline because because frankly we made that adjustment over a year ago and I'm not sure I can remember all that. And one other subject to some of the other questions about if a country's overall investment climate has certain weaknesses how can you isolate the clean energy investment environment we added sort of a general screen on investment climate which I believe was a World Bank indicator. So we sort of we sort of levelized all of the all of the countries by a different kind of more objective indicator about the general perception of investment climate predictability and things like that because that was that was one of the comments that we got. That was exactly one of the questions was well but it's great that you've looked like in a microscopic way at that that policy but what about the overall sovereign risk and frankly we were like well that's not something we're in any position to try and assess so we did look to the World Bank and used in fact if you look on page 21 you'll see in 20 and 21 a bit of description of that. We tried to take one of your your assessments into into account again because one of the challenges of all this is where do we stop I mean there's just so many extraneous factors that we could analyze but we had to kind of ring fence it to some degree. Even though it's a US jurisdiction I was wondering if you thought to look at Puerto Rico in this. We did talk about that but I don't do you tell me does that do you guys do work in Puerto Rico? Yeah we limited it to in our case the borrowing member countries of our institution so the yeah the US is a shareholder we've looked at Puerto Rico from the context of a few areas where they do stand out like in terms of public-private partnerships of which some are in the energy sector but we didn't for the purposes of this analysis we didn't. And for my part I thank you for that because to try this we'd have to assess Puerto Rico and the US federal government policy regimes as well together which would be quite an undertaking. I'm always glad to help with Puerto Rico I used to work for the governor for several years. Great thank you. I'll give you my card. Good thank you. Perry Lindstrom with EIA I've got four questions is that okay? Number one is biomass do you differentiate at all between closed-loop systems and you know tearing down the rainforest to generate electricity which could be rather important and in terms you showed some levelized costs do you look at all at systemic costs in other words intermittency has a cost to the grid and that might move the order for example geothermal and biomass might move up and be better in the pecking order if you did that. I didn't see a solar installed price for Latin America or any of the countries did I miss that or did you just not show that? And then a final question is what happened to Costa Rica I keep hearing it's like the greenest country on earth and so what happened I mean is it a parameter issue because they're not really putting the investments in there or what is it? Okay let me take them one by one on biomass I don't think I'll check but I don't think we made a differentiation I think we used both. On LCOE it's a good point on intermittency issues and we provide I'll send you our latest outlook on this we go into some much greater detail and I've given the kind of higher level thing but for the overall kind of macro picture no we don't look at that we don't include that in that but we certainly do think and have written about that. The solar installed price for Latin America I haven't included we have done some work we did a levelized cost of energy analysis in Chile specifically a while back and we've also looked at some of the costs elsewhere I can't give you a specific number but you know we're we're definitely not we're not talking Germany in terms of costs and we're probably talking something above California in terms of costs in many cases but but I can get you some further details on that. In Costa Rica it's a good question I'll have to check I think to some degree they're heard a little bit by the lumpiness of this as I mentioned earlier about the the dollar investment levels and the deployment levels of small country and getting pinch I get pinched a little bit by that but like let me check on that because you know I don't know exactly the reason off the top of my head. I mean I would just say that's a case where the overall investment climate is very good right they've attracted a lot of very high-tech investment just taking a quick look I mean the 44% of the clean energy installed capacity is large hydro so it may be a question of as as we define it that doesn't sort of count but we can get you more. I think they're also building pretty big refinery down there as well so there's a lot of interesting there's there's some there cross currents I think going on within Costa Rica there's certainly from a political perspective obviously the leadership of president and Cristiana for Garrison there's a lot of people very interested in it but yeah I mean you know they but they did not finish ahead of Nicaragua in the region. Charlotte Fleming's Department of Energy so I had two quick questions in reference to the tracking of different policies that you analyzed over time so I know you mentioned that there was 80 over previous time and then 120 more recently did any of y'all look at the national climate change agendas for the specific countries and if so like what their agendas actually said and if so would that be will we be able to view that online as the tool as the tool debate so like for example for Colombia I was just looking in the book and it lists three of the top key policies but instead of the three key top policies could we look at whatever you looked at in reference to how you managed or reviewed the data so if there was 10 policies that was analyzed during that time period would it be will we be able to look at that online? So yes and no so the the we do disclose all the policies that we collected information on list them in that Excel chart I believe or in the in the in the report but you can't and on our end we do gather information on them and write descriptions about them hopefully that are user friendly but those have not been made up on this website as things currently stand as we do climate scope for 2014 though one of the arrangements that we're making is that all those policy descriptions will become available to go along with it so in the short term though let me know if you're interested in any I'm happy to to connect you you know and give our descriptions of them and the links to the underlying policy records the records that we collect but also the actual legislation as it's out there yeah just in terms of climate policy and again not on the index itself but the way that we've been engaging lately is more at a sector level so for example in Costa Rica we're piloting a project in the coffee sector to get to near zero emission coffee production at the level of certain cooperatives and in so I think you know Costa Rica is maybe one of the countries that's furthest along on its NAMA you know the the national strategies and and countries like Guyana where they have a low carbon development strategy we're engaging with specific sectors or sub sectors to try and get a model that's at least sort of not commercially viable but at least financially sustainable to to be able to act in those sectors in a way that's near carbon neutral but that's not that level of detail is not in the policy framework this is just something that we do through our technical assistance projects thanks very much Sarah with the energy program here at CSIS thanks Karen this is really great I look forward to the 2014 version especially as you go global so I'm gonna ask a pesky question you may have already answered it in one way shape or form but so you say you don't really take into account what's happening in other parts of the energy sector but you know as far as like price control or subsidies or those kinds of things or just you know the the bar that a lot of climate change policies always have to get over which is sort of in the in the course of the bigger sort of energy policy debates do they just end up losing out sometimes and so having been part of the discussion at one point in time on a previous one I understood that was there was a huge part of trying to figure out how to sort of subjectively analyze that but like what in that scope of that discussion for this year's outlook what was the issues that came up most as being you know potential other energy policy issues or other energy market factors that were particularly either difficult for or helpful to these climate change policies thanks Sarah and also thanks for hosting us of course the I think one of the hardest challenges is trying to un um and political challenges within these countries is to unwrap the kind of subsidies that exist in a number of cases that artificially keep electricity prices say low in Mexico or in other countries like that and how what the effect that it has on um what that has on on clean energy that's a that's just a authority one to try and pull apart and sort of analyze in a kind of comprehensive way and um so I think you know and as we look at some of these but as we look ahead for 2014 one of the things that we are including um particularly for these poorer countries is trying to understand how much um things like diesel uh fuel may be getting subsidized in the least developed countries um and uh you know obviously they're doing that for reasons to to make energy access more available to people but on the other hand that that those actually those kinds of subsidies make it harder for solar foldable takes to to get a hold in a market because they are less um the economic you know opportunity is less obvious to the to the user so those are the I would say that's probably the biggest challenge that we've faced in in addressing all this I don't care if you have anything to add on that I don't I don't think I have a great answer I mean I think uh the having this exercise show where there's private capital coming in in spite of those conditions and trying to increase awareness about the fact that there actually are market opportunities in spite of those conditions is kind of the point of this exercise I'm not I don't know how much more we'll be able to accomplish but it's a it's a it's a very valid point hi Larry Sperling from the State Department I'm wondering if you uh snapped on any sort of um subnational lens in in your analysis did you look at uh for example uh the the impacts of urbanization trends on uh you know any of the factors that you looked at or policy enabling environments things happening at a municipal level as opposed to national level uh no I generally because I mean to be honest with you it's uh the um I would say the kind of not to be too broad a generalization but the kind of good news for us to date is there hadn't been that much state level activity although it's gearing up for instance in Brazil they're holding their first I think um uh state level clean energy power auction like next week and if I've got that name in that state right um and so you know that's that's going to be potentially more of an issue um going forward I think we've had the advantage that most of the countries you know outside of Brazil the most of the countries are a bit smaller and so trying to so frankly state stuff matters but it you know if Costa Rica being you know a small country it's okay um one thing though we are certainly very aware of the of that as a challenge as we look at going forward on the global climate scope is you know so we we set out to do this and we said okay do China and do India well okay um we're talking over two billion people here um and so for those countries um as you can see on the slide here we are doing an analysis of 15 Chinese provinces and 10 Indian um sorry 10 Indian states and 15 Indian provinces and um because you know there's just just you know some of them have tens hundreds of millions of people in them you have to do you have to do that um but we didn't in a major way take that into account um on this and it'll be very challenging for us to do so frankly. Ethan one of the Ethan and Carrie one of the issues of becoming quite popular around Washington these days and we heard it from the IEA is infrastructure resiliency and electric power resiliency and I was just wondering to what extent you've thought about factoring in the resiliency question for renewables which may be more distributed may not be into looking at that as a positive or negative from a policy objective that the idea being you know our country is taking that into account as a part of the policy planning looking forward. Well I mean I guess well first I feel like not to make too big a generalization but I haven't seen the resiliency theme drive that much policy making at least yet I think in the in the region. I think a lot of this is driven by economic development energy security concerns um and energy access issues um so I think it's been pretty secondary. I think the challenge for us always though is if you know I mean what we're trying to assess here is whether or not a market is whether there's a market opportunity and whether they've shown welcoming conditions for this stuff and I think we do that but I think trying to also assess whether or not they've gotten the resiliency memo will be tough for us to just sort of do I don't know Carrie could have any thoughts on that. I think the best example that I know of actually is the African Development Bank which is has a climate adaptation sort of built into its project finance model which is very incipient but they are actually pricing in climate resilience into the infrastructure that they're building. We've been in discussions with Brazil with the the state of of Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais about there's a couple of tools out there to help better in the value for money projection on a on like a bid or a concession to to actually price in some of the resiliency so more at a transaction level I've not I've not seen it yet policy wise but that's we you know climate adaptation is one of the things that that we're very interested in and we've we've had conversations about incorporating it into climate scope but haven't really made a decision yet but that's something to think about. Mel Neaton, Ethan Allen Institute. In your studies have you found a significant impact of policies being utilized to retrofit or modify fossil fuel as a part of the picture of cleaning up the environment? It's a good question I mean we've seen you know for instance in the UK they're doing a fair amount of swapping in biomass firing in coal plants. I haven't seen I frankly hadn't seen that much of it in in Latin America I think part of it is because they you know and this is what makes the markets appealing to the the industry and the you know our sort of corporate clients who are interested in Latin America is because they are growing and power demand is growing and they need to add new capacity new capacity entirely so thinking they're doing a little less thinking about using existing assets in a different way so much as they are just adding new capacity but I don't know maybe Kerry you've seen more of that I haven't can't say I've seen much. I have two questions not four but only two. First it's it's always very daunting to take so much data and get down to any kind of summary say more one number so well done and also look forward to 2014 as well it's it's definitely a daunting task to take on again the world and so applaud you for taking that on looking forward to that. First question I had was around the methodology piece I think you correctly recognize you know people may want to shift some of those weights around and so you showed your dashboard that allows folks to do that question was is there any kind of sub-level adjustments that's that's permissible on your website because I as I lift leaf through the book there's those those general four categories are broken out and you can see opportunities where people may want to shift that. No we did it at the parameter level on the website but on the spreadsheet you can tweak more. Okay so there's something. Yeah so the spreadsheet so download the excel sheet and then just completely you know be inert and enjoy it. The second question I had was a little bit more macro and a lot of the discussion is around electricity and particularly my mind goes to the pricing pieces of it but then in other parts we talk about investment and we look at things well beyond electricity so I'm trying to equate that in my head in that should this be viewed as a electricity report or if it's an energy report I just can't connect those two so can you expand on that a little bit? No it's a good question I mean we I don't know if it's quantified but we're probably about 95% electricity and about 5% transport fuels and the transport and the only way we really touch on transport fuels is is on biofuels because we track we track the level of biofuel investment and we track deployment levels and we've looked at biofuel supportive policies as well so that's probably about it and point entirely taken which is you know sort of that's the one place we kind of bleed over out of power gen into into transport but frankly you know but I you know I would argue biofuels are important part of you know clean energy development that we've seen in Latin America and we can get into a long debate about there's sort of carbon impact or whatever but actually you know I think it's it's sort of but in you know what we're talking about in Brazil is sugarcane ethanol and and there's no question that that's a lower CO2 you know output than corn ethanol and and you know it depends on who you read is also much better than gasoline as well in terms of CO2 so that's that's the one area where we sort of included it now we try to recognize that not every country in Latin America can produce biofuels of course they don't have the resource so if it's a country that didn't we deemed did not have that kind of resource we didn't grade them down for not having biofuels policies and activity didn't seem fair well we I think just about reach the the end of the time and we do try to let people know what time they can get out of here so we try not to drag this on so if there are no further questions right now I'll carry Ethan thank you very much and please