 Welcome to Tick Mill Weekly Market Outlook for week-menacing March the 2nd with me Patrick Munley. In the US this week we'll see release of ISM data and it may be even more closely watched than Friday's non-plan payrolls report after market PMIs raise risk that the coronavirus might be starting to hit the US economy. On Wednesday the ISM non-manufacturing index is expected to fall. Friday's release for February may well show a material slowing in jobs growth partly after the acceleration towards the 225,000 the prior month. Wage growth could also slow a little more further given fairly typical seasonal monthly wage gains and a year ago base effects. Otherwise the rest of the week's data in the US is unlikely to have much impact. The ADP's estimate for private sector employments due on Wednesday followed by the usual weekly jobless claims on Thursday. Fourth quarter productivity and costs and January factory orders are also released on Thursday. Whilst on Friday we will also see January trade and wholesale data. From a technical perspective the dollar index has continued to decline from that potentially meaningful double top pattern highlighted in last week's analysis. We now look poised to test a pivot cluster down towards this 97 level. I'd be looking for some type of corrective price action from this 97 ultimately to potentially test in a three-wave move the 98-50 monthly pivot as this area contains the upside. I'll be looking for another leg of downside to ultimately challenge down towards this 96 level. If we fail to find support at 97 I'll be looking for a quick test of 96 before we may see some corrective price action. Whilst we're talking about the dollar let's check in with gold. Gold as anticipated traded up into that 1700 area where we have found some resistance. We saw a sharp pull back in towards this 1560 level and I think we still have a little bit more work to do on the downside here. A test of the 1525 the ascending projected bullish trend line support would be an interesting area to see where we could get a potential base for another attempt to the upside certainly to retest 1600. However if we can get a close back through the 1645 area my focus would then shift towards the ascending trend line resistance and the pivot cluster up to 1740. In the euro zone inflation for February is going to be at the top of the agenda. Tuesday we likely see headline inflation easing but core inflation could rise somewhat. ECB President Christine Lagarde recently put on hold any expectations in favor of near-term easing by indicating it was too soon to evaluate the impact of coronavirus on inflation but that was more likely due to the fact that ECB has little room for applying fresh stimulus to the already exceptional extent of monetary policy measures in place. On Wednesday market released the final reading of the services composite PMIs. The OECD will also be publishing its interim economic outlook in the week ahead. Other releases will include German, Italian and Eurozone retail sales, German factory orders, French trade and Swiss CPI. From a technical perspective the euro dollar has continued to see there's a vicious short squeeze. Note how we're tracking a similar price action that we witnessed back in the August of 2018. As such what I've been looking for now is a test of the yearly pivot at this 112-20 area and then some consolidation back into test bids towards 110. As this area does support I'll be looking for another leg of upside to ultimately take out the current year-to-date highs en route to a test initially of 113 but then maybe more meaningfully up towards 150. In the UK the scheduled final PMI data on Wednesday are merely really updates to the already released flash numbers. Hence markets are likely to focus on headlines surrounding the EU and UK ahead of the formal start of trade negotiations which actually started today. The Bank of England guidance may be offered by a trio of speakers including Ben Broadbent on Thursday, Andy Haldane is also speaking on Thursday and they'll be followed by Mark Carney on Friday. Please note also that the G7 finance ministers also have a call on Tuesday to discuss the potential coordinated market response to the coronavirus but there'll be more information released on that via the news wires on Tuesday once the call is confirmed. From a technical perspective Sterling looks like it's going to try and carve out say an inverse head and shoulders pattern here. We are drifting lower and looks poisonary to test the ABCD objective and the FID cluster down towards this 12650 area. As bids emerge here look for a test of descending trade line resistance at 129 and close through there would suggest that we could trade back up into the well established range and test the 131 area. However a failure to hold the 12650 would ultimately see a move down to test support towards 12450 before another basing attempt may prevail. Following Monday's release of fourth quarter capital expenditure data in Japan there will be relatively little to look forward to through S3. Friday will bring January labour cash earnings and household spending data. Household spending is expected to stay weak in January amid poor consumer sentiments. From a technical perspective the dolly yen fell away rapidly from that ascending trade line resistance highlighted in last week's analysis. We've since broken the trade line support and whilst this 109 area now acts as resistance there is the potential to test lower here to look at bids down towards the 10650 area. If we fail to find support here then I would expect a very quick test of last year's lows back down towards this 10450 area. Only really a close back through 10950 would suggest a false downside break in a stabilisation and a return to the prior range trading environments. In Australia most in the market expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep its policy rates on hold at 0.75% on Tuesday. There are risks of a surprise cut though in line with the broader concerns from central bankers regarding coronavirus but despite the lack of monetary policy ammunition on the back of these concerns a rising unemployment rate and a potentially weak fourth quarter GDP will also be on the minds of the central bank. The country will release its fourth quarter GDP numbers on Wednesday and expectations are for a rising growth to 2% year-over-year from 1.7% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2019. January's trade data and retail sales will also be released on Thursday and Friday respectively. From a technical perspective the Australian dollar has spiked lower and tested bids towards this one towards the 6450 area. We've seen a recovery attempt but we couldn't uh we've tested and we've been rejected from the weekly pivot at 6570. Until really we get a close back above 66 my focus would be on the downside now for an ultimate test of the pivot cluster down towards 6370 where once again we may see a basing attempt to challenge the prior lows back up towards the 67 handle. In Canada the the key event this week is going to be the Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting on Wednesday will be a close call as to whether the Canadian Central Bank will ease. There is no monetary policy report accompanying this meeting but the Bank of Canada Government Stephen Pollars is due to speak on Friday. Friday also seems February Canadian employment data alongside January trade data and February IV PMI data. Before that we'll also receive Canadian PMIs which came in broadly in line on Monday but more focus will be on fourth quarter productivity released on Wednesday. From a technical perspective as highlighted in Friday's chart of the day we have seen resistance at this 13450 and we're looking at potential bearish close today which will flip the the daily chart bearish as per the near-term volume weighted average price. As such as we hold 13450 I would then be looking for a retest of this 132 area of support. Failure to find support at 132 would open a retest of the range of owns down to 130. However if we do see early bids at this 13260 we could look for a retest of last week's highs at 13450 and that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing March the 2nd.