 Well, good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and it's just wonderful to see so many of you here today. Welcome to the CBI annual conference. A huge thanks, first of all, to our headline sponsors, Harvey Nash and Ernst and Young, who frankly without them we couldn't do this. And our supporting sponsors, equally important, Barclays, Jones Langlisell and, of course, BA Systems. I'm sure you've all seen in the hall today some of the magnificent products that they actually make for this country. Just a little bit of housekeeping, as always, just make sure that the mobile phones are switched off, always helps. And there is no scheduled fire alarm today. So if one goes off, we have a problem. And there are people that are around the sort of auditorium who can guide you through to the exit. We have assembled, I think, the most remarkable list of speakers for you, the Prime Minister, the Leader of the Opposition, the Mayor of London, the Business Secretary, plus a host of top business leaders, all on the same day, all in the same room, but probably for the sake of good order, not all at the same time. It promises to be a fascinating day, and I think we'll end with an equally engaging and enjoyable dinner when our guest speaker will be Andrew Marr. So hopefully a number of you are staying for that. It's just about a year since I stood here and spoke of the challenges we needed to overcome in this country, and the national sense of entitlement we needed to cure. If we were all to succeed in what is clearly an increasingly competitive world. And I think we've come a long way in 12 months. The improved taxation levels we campaigned for, more in hope than anticipation, both corporate and personal, now in place. The Olympic success that we worked for in construction, in presentation, and performance, now firmly on the scoreboard. With the echo of great British achievements, both on and off the track, still echoing around the world, and what a magnificent August that was. We've got reduced inflation and we've got stable unemployment, both now a reality, and I think most importantly the first signs of growth that quite frankly we prayed for, and it's just starting to inch through. So I think going round the country it's no surprise that when I talk to members the mood is it's tough, it's been challenging, but it certainly could be a lot worse. On the international front in the last year we've seen many changes. We've seen a mix of established and new faces in fact wrestling with many of the old problems. In the west wing the return of the old team overseeing I think what is a stuttering recovery, and politically a wall of resistance in the House of Representatives. In Beijing a new team nurturing continued albeit slightly slower growth in China, and in Europe a partially refreshed team trying to sort out the same old problems to avoid what would clearly be an international catastrophe. So for the UK halfway through the cycle with the existing team I think self-help looks like the best way forward. When we look at home we benefited from an opposition that's growing in stature, knowing that a strong opponent always makes for a better government. We've had a government to be fair sometimes stumbling in presentation but I am pleased to say never wavering in determination keeping a firm grip on the finances of the country, low interest rates and of course favourable exchange rates being the prize that has continued to underpin our steady recovery. The CBI's message to the Chancellor has been equally resolute, keep prescribing the medicine but resist increasing the dosage. The patient is fragile, accept a longer convalescence, it is in itself infinitely preferable to the risk of a sudden relapse from a heavy overdose. So however well intentioned the doctor must be patient. For modest recovery is evident, statistics are improving and exports to countries outside the EU now account for more than 55% of our trade. This hasn't been the case since the 70s and the value of goods exported to China was 24% higher in August than in the same period last year. That's no small achievement and for the first time in 40 years which is sadly within my own living memory we are a net exporter of cars quite unbelievable if you turn the clock back only 20 years. Shareholders have started to rediscover their role as stewards with a little encouragement and businessmen whilst remaining performance driven are encouraged to be more values led and very pleasingly more women are actually now joining boards. So when we glance in the rearview mirror it gives us a little feeling of comfort that some progress has been made in difficult times some difficult terrain covered but a look through the windscreen continues to show that it's a difficult course ahead with some pretty nasty potholes on what is still a bumpy ride. Confidence remains in short supply whatever the domestic achievements the risk of a seismic shift in economic conditions from what is still an unstable european continent continues to rain back any sort of feeling of real optimism and big investment enthusiasm in many of our boardrooms and no change in the short term to be fair looks likely but I have to say when most around us in our neighbourhood are slipping backwards forward momentum however small is still welcome progress and it's on these modest foundations that we must now jointly commit that's politicians and business leaders to accelerating the pace of our sustainable growth program so as we look forward I want to examine four key messages that will be the central thrust of the cbi agenda in 2013 and indeed our conference today first we must all business and government redouble our focus on export performance with renewed vigor and importantly we must get after those opportunities that are still outside our traditional comfort zone not just china and india but turkey indonesia russia and of course south america this is a race that continues there is no winning post there are only marker posts and at each stage we must see that where success achieved is simply a spur to take us on to even greater effort in cost reduction in product innovation and indeed clearly in new market penetration I saw some pretty remarkables of this a couple of weeks ago meeting with cbi members in hong kong in beijing and shanghai it was very very enlivening all the people were fired with enthusiasm all were delighted with their success and all were excited about the prospects for future growth not only household names like tesco jaguar landrover intercontinental hotels gkn diagio but also smaller companies service providers and manufacturers respected for their expertise and valued internationally for their skills and they're doing well all who had summoned up the courage to go all who had shown the tenacity to stay and all enjoying our rates of growth that we in the west can only dream of ambassadors consular officials uk ti all their enforce supporting encouraging smoothing and I have to say schmoozing working with the business community and the cbi in the field to make it happen a real demonstration of where a shift in government focus in the foreign office has actually created a change in the behavior of its people while channa itself may regard seven percent six to seven percent growth as a little disappointing in perspective we all have to remember that it is still equivalent to one greek economy every three months and one finish economy which is actually more difficult to visualize but one finish economy every 12 months I mean it's major so message number one is is almost a reprise of last year but it remains vital there's a world of opportunity out there and we all must get our share if we are to return to prosperity at home the second point I think whilst looking for new partners we mustn't forget old friends europe however challenged remains home for half our exports and it's like many relationships can't live with you can't live without you but somehow the partnership continues to survive and whatever the popular appeal may be of withdrawal businessmen and politicians must keep a bridge to europe firmly in place as the countries of europe bind together in pursuit of salvation we in the uk must work harder to avoid the real risks of isolation europe is the bedrock of our international trade it should be viewed as the launch pad from which our global trade can expand not a land mass from which we wish to retreat and if we are to avoid an exit vote in any referendum it is essential that the voice of british business is loud and clear in extolling the virtues of future engagement not as a reluctant participant but as the linchpin of our wider global ambitions my second message therefore is politicians must engage corners must be fought and battles must be won for this country but the cold business logic of a european partnership out of self-interest must be argued for and ultimately must prevail my third point my third point is aimed pretty firmly and squarely at government our success in the world will undoubtedly be driven by the strength of an identified industrial strategy at home a strategy that doesn't pick winners but support sectors an economy that welcomes all comers but still manages to look after our own now this year i think we've seen encouraging progress in the evolution of a real plan through the work of the business secretary who clearly we're going to hear from a little later and the report of michael heseltine so these are good things which very much align with the cbi's thinking about the need for a real plan for this economy but our criticism of government has never been one of mindset it hasn't been one of lack of initiatives or policy direction for pro business it's been about delivery business frankly doesn't need a lot more new initiatives it requires existing plans and published words to be converted into good deeds in infrastructure local enterprise partnerships energy outsourcing there are a list business wants consistency not policy made on the hoof it wants clarity not into departmental interpretations of policy it wants certainty through policy and hopefully some cross party agreement at the highest levels and most of all it wants delivery efficient execution of promises made to quickly become promises kept only then will confidence return for investors to make long-term commitments in an uncertain world so my third message to government is in the words of the great Nike slogan just do it now undoubtedly an area of government that has met much of this challenge is the area of education where for some the scale of change and the pace of doing it has almost been maybe sometimes a little too hectic the cbi message is clear and will be even clearer during this afternoon's debate we want academic achievement but we want it blended with social skills we want our students to be grounded and rounded fit for purpose in a competitive world we want British students to be the best equipped with the skills today not only academic but be able to work in a business environment to have those skills so they can prosper tomorrow and frankly nothing could be more important the young unemployed are becoming a social fault line across Europe it is wrong and it is dangerous to be without prospects is to be without purpose and to be without purpose is to be alienated from society and without education there is no hope for recovery of the next generation and the generation that follows and lastly my final message there is no doubt if we wish to educate our children to be fit for purpose we must give them inspiration and a place that they believe is fit to work we must demonstrate that we are a generation that is focused not just on how much money we make but how we make money we must collectively work to salvaging the reputation of business as businesses and individuals standards have been variable greed occasionally prevalent and fairness forgotten in a number of sectors banking and media at the forefront but others from all walks of life sometimes also showing signs of bad behaviour it's given commentators a license to tar all with the same brush and to poison the minds of many as to the values and value of business in society nobody should expect forgiveness from those that have lost their homes their jobs their reputations their privacy or their prospects by the misdeeds of the powerful and contemptible but i'm pleased to say few but lessons have been learned banking boards and practices have been refreshed media moguls chastised and executive greed contained by a mixture of regulation legislation stewardship and boardroom self-discipline now the direction of travel is positive there still remains of course more to do but we must encourage those that see from the outside a view of business as something that is not good for society we must see that they stop saying all leaders don't care when they do all energy companies rip you off when they don't all bankers are despicable when they are not or big business is bad business when it isn't those making things better should be supported those creating wealth should be rewarded and business big medium and small when doing good business should be respected and only then will society and business be at one good governance and great performance must go hand in hand those businesses that strive for it those commentating on it should celebrate it and for all of us we should recognise at the end of the day when it works we all benefit from it during the course of the day i think these themes are going to reoccur and they're going to be developed in some of the panels and speeches that follow mine the panels we have an excellent grouping that i think will add real interest to the topics and we have a speaker list second to none during the course of the year the cbi team are going to be working for you the members to turn our collective ambition in these areas into solid achievement john and the team are utterly committed to doing just that so thank you all this morning for coming thank you for listening i wish you all an engaging rewarding and most of all an enjoyable conference thank you