 Second-to-last event of the PGA tour season. I intentionally said second-to-last because the word penultimate is Potentially overused not gonna lie. We're ignoring it for today second-to-last event of the FedExca playoffs the BMW championship Coming up this weekend Brandon is already done with this podcast. We're not even a minute in I am psyched about that We're gonna break things down from a DFS perspective and get you ready for the BMW Championship on FanDuel for this week welcome on into the heat-check fantasy podcast powered by Numberfire that's right here on the FanDuel podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as always my brandy Kadula and Are you ready to quit like you look you look done? What has caused this angst a minute and 32 seconds into the recording? How's it over used you get these at one time a year? No, you don't not for not everything everything has a panel penultimate I just I was watching Better Call Saul they had the penultimate episode last week every every no spoilers Everything had like a like the word penultimate in the podcast title Every everywhere you look the word penultimate is there and I'm sick of it I'm fighting back against big penultimate. Do you get this annoyed with? final yes Next week you're not gonna say the final pgh. You're gonna say boycotting I will not say that word once if I do say the word finally you'll be $5 because you've accepted it in my brain And it's your fault man. I feel like I hope I remember that we said this because I know you won't Yeah, there's no shot. I'm gonna forget about this. I might have a similar outburst Next week if I remembered it and because you're gonna say it you'd never have an outburst The other thing that may give you an outburst is last week. I was not in the show But you did slack me and asked me if I had any win picks for the show. I said I wanted will sell a torus and some other scrub I don't remember it doesn't matter And in our week or yearly contest we have our bobblehead. You've already won that I owe you a hat at some point because you beat me in the bobble hat or weekly had to head for PGA DFS but we also do win picks at the end relative to odds of fandom sportsbook and Will's our torus is win is put me ahead which means I am bound for an epic collapse of some kind because Success is not allowed But will Z Because you asked me for my pick because I would have forgotten again back to that It's your fault again So you're gonna win anyway, but like how do you feel right now knowing that you have to be nervous for two weeks whereas otherwise you wouldn't know well as they say golf is the gentleman's game and I feel like our golf adjacent you know Contests that we do we should be gentlemen about it. So I feel like in the spirit Of everything I did things, you know by the unwritten book Um, I think that's what I I think that's what the the golf grades would have would have expected From me. So Jack Nick was just smiling upon you. Yeah, I mean I have two weeks left To hit a winner at the end of the show And have you not? um, of course you know Look, we're being gentlemen. So I won't bring up the fact that Back back in the day you won this contest by selecting Dustin different rules Different rules whenever we put not select the same golfer and he started with A 10 shot lead over last place in a 30 person tournament. He ended up Cementing you the victory. So I won't bring that up. Um, because I am sure you would never do that I won't last year too though because it's Andrew Shafley. So that's not yes totally Oh, was it an eagle on the last hole? It was something like that like 17th 18th. I don't know. Yeah, uh What are our units overall for this year between the two of us? Do you have that pulled up right now for our win bets? Um, I can get it in one second. It was I think you're Up 29 and a half units. I'm up 25 units On just the two win bets assuming one one unit each obviously. We've had a good year. That's pretty good We have yeah, and it's also tough. Um, because we don't specifically Well, we don't specifically choose golfers always it You you do this more than I do I try to hit winners Which sounds like the most obvious thing but like I I go a lot chalkier for this because I'm just trying to secure some units. Um, I'm not risking it with 100 to one long shots, but you know by the way, um 100 to 181 sounds great. Uh, but if those guys don't win, it doesn't matter. So still a zero A lot of uh, a lot of chalky winners uh this year And I think that we're probably gonna stick with that this week but also just kind of in the near future because golf's pretty deep uh and this week in particular A lot of golfers listed it it short odds So speaking of the odds, we did have you on covering the spread our betting podcast, which is now daily Uh, so you can find Brandon's full list of pga betsy likes this week on covering the spread find that wherever you get your podcast It was the tuesday show with brandon and then pitching ninja rob freeman getting his k props for the day But let's take into the dfs side of things here on the number fire daily fantasy podcast We can talk about this vmw championship because it's at a new course. It is at Wilmington country club the south course it is 7400 or 500 and 34 yards into par 71 And this is the first time they've been there There are 68 golfers in the field. So it's a no-cut event 68 after the cam smith withdrawal Yesterday the top 30 in the fedex cup playoffs after this week will advance the tour championship So you would think it'd be motivation for the guys on the fringes, but also positioning matters a lot So Motivation is sky high for everybody in this field to put themselves not just to qualify for next week, but to also Put themselves in a good position for next week. So motivation is very high, but new course So brandon, what do we need to know about Wilmington country club in terms of what you care about for this week? Yes, it's long for especially for me in a par 71. It's about 220 yards longer than the average par 71 But it also is pretty narrow So you have to kind of figure out how to blend those two things for me It's going to be the distance that ultimately wins out. We have some long holes Uh on the course this week Two of the three par fives longer than 630 yards the others 582, which is still longer than the average par five, which Is around 560 yards on the pga tour. So all the par fives are long We've got three of the 11 par fours being long At least 490 yards. It's about 50 60 yards longer than the average par four. So we're getting added distance on virtually, you know Substantially added distance, I should say on about six or seven holes So it's not just necessarily one or two holes that really kind of changes things So I think it's pretty relevant for this week that that golfers are long off the tee despite some thick rough and despite some You know what look like narrow fairways and if we look at similar courses so longer ones, but that's that that do have Sort of narrower fairways and thick rough Distance is actually still more important than accuracy and you know We're going to be looking at a lot of long approaches for this week data golf course table course fit tool they have expected dispersion of Approach shots so like second shots and Everyone's getting an abnormally high number of approaches from over 200 yards You can look at proximity from 200 yards. You can look at you know, whatever 200 plus yards that you're looking you kind of want but It does correlate pretty heavily with driving distance And actually stroke sand off the tee because you know, it just makes sense that those you know when you're getting Fairway woods in your hands. It's it's not that different than than driving distance So I think that it's going to be crucial that golfers can pick up distance on the field all that said We do have big greens and that typically Deemphasizes approach play, but if I go back to the course comps a lot of courses that should set up similar to this actually Reward just overall ball striking. So effectively driving distance and iron play. So For me, I'm looking at ball strikers this week. That's going to be you know, put us on a lot of our heat check favorites And the the the other kind of key stat that you could you really factor in Is potentially lag putting but just overall putting because we're going to have uh, you know Longer puths than normal because the greens are so big so You know, you can complicate it and say I need proximity from 175 plus and weight it this way But ultimately I'm looking at driving distance stroke skiing off the tee stroke skiing approach and putting for the week Do you care about finding golfers who are both long and accurate because of the stuff you mentioned with the The longer roughs. Are you looking specifically at guys or like not? specifically at guys, but do you give a boost to guys who can kind of live in both areas? so I mean any time that comes up zander shawthor comes to mind and I am pretty high on zander for this week But you can also look at someone like rory for as long as he is. He's not that inaccurate Scotty Schaeffler also not that inaccurate. John rom's actually quite accurate for as long as he is So I think it's less about That specifically and it's more That I'm not looking at just the absolute longest hitters in the field and bumping them up a ton because there's more to this course than that So like windham clark, uh tray mullen axe like they're I need to see a little bit more From their overall games. So there are some courses where you just say whoever hits it farthest I think gets a huge leg up. I think it's going to be a much more difficult test than that This week and with the field being what it is. So um, that that kind of answers your question, but yeah, again, it's it's never bad to be Long and pretty straight. So um, I think that I don't I don't know I don't know why john rom is getting that down just to kind of jump ahead Seems like he's getting a lot of attention. He did he did kind of Jump out to me a little bit. Um, but I think that ultimately We're going to have an overall test this week And I guess it should favor john rom if john rom's back to being you know, john rom Yeah, rom played well last week. Not sure if it's just that that's kind of driving things But we'll talk about rom guys with short ends guys in good form and much more In just one second at first nfo kickoff is still a few weeks away But you can get into the action now on fan dual sports book with their nfl super win Bonus right now anyone who places at least a $50 super bowl winner bet will get $5 back for each win Their team has during the regular season They're also a ton of other futures markets available like team win totals division winners player props and so many more There's no better place to get ready for the football season than on fan dual America's number one sports book and official sports betting partner of the nfl Must be 21 plus and present in select states only Bonus issued as non withdrawal will free bets that expire seven days after a seat max free bet $50 restrictions apply See terms that sports book dot fan dual dot com gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler or visit fan dual dot com slash rg and arizona 100 next step protects next set to 5 3 3 4 2 In connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 7 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in indiana 1 809 with it in louisiana 1 8 7 7 7 7 0 stop in new york 1 8 7 7 8 hopin wire text hopin y in tennessee call the red line at 1 800 8 9 9 7 8 9 In wyoming 1 800 5 2 2 4 700 or in west virginia 1 800 gambler dot net No course history to discuss your course because it is a new course So let's dive into current form and talk about some golfers. We've been popping recently brandy You're looking at the data golf leaderboard recently When you dig into the stats see who has excelled of late. Who stands out to you there? Yeah, so with the data golf true strokes game query I know for any long-time listeners, we're going to mix this up because I think it's more helpful that we discuss Course form a little or our current form a little more Better maybe a little more better But over the past three months roi macaro is gaining 2.91 strokes Uh per event or sorry per round um And that adjusts for field strength. So a 2.91 for roi tony finnell next up at a 2.7 for Matt Fitzpatrick 2.54 uh zander schauffer 2.47 So let's just say roi finnell fits Schauffer 2 and a half Or better nobody else uh is above a 2 aside from mozalatoris at a 2.1 So if you want to look at the four guys who are in the best form relative to the field That's roi finnell fits patrick and zander. Um, I think that that's pretty interesting because We know that roi is the big favorite Finau has been getting the wins uh fits patrick obviously Uh and and zander 2 getting some wins some big wins in uh that that time frame But um, it's a pretty big teardrop and that's not necessarily reflected in the win odds Uh, it's a lot more it's a little bit more flat than that. Um, so I think that's appealing For this week and then someone who's who also jumps out to me as I was looking at this is patrick cantlay Well, I guess two guys in particular Because just below zalatoris at a 2.1 We have patrick cantlay at a 1.97 and scottie schauffer at a 1.92 But they're doing it in very different ways Schauffer is at a 2.1 in terms of teeter green cant lay a 1.1 And he's actually gaining 0.84 strokes Per event with putting now roi like roi's up there with a putter too But cant lay still relevant but doing a lot with the putter Schauffer actually is the only guy in like the top 20 In total strokes gained who's losing long term In this sample with the putter So I think that this is a is a perfect example where I probably wouldn't like talked about scottie schauffer's current form necessarily Because the finishing positions haven't necessarily jumped out, but he's phenomenal right now teeter green He is as good as roi finow and Fitzpatrick teeter green. He just isn't putting well And I think that he's a really fascinating name for this week So does anything jump out to you from those names or looking at this in general? Well, lucky for us. We have a guy who looks at putting regression stats on the show His name is brandon. Not sure if you've heard of him. Anyway, uh, you look at putting regression You dig into Which which putting stats are predictive? What do those numbers say about schauffer right now because I have a lot of interest in scottie schauffer? And you look at that negative point two one putting the past three months, that's Gross, but also it's like, huh. I know long term scottie schauffer is not an a lights out putter But he's also not hideous. So are we looking at some potential regression in coming here for schauffer? What are you seeing? So I actually think this is more Um regression finally meeting up to scottie schauffer because he had been someone who had been over performing for quite some time um, he's actually still kind of Uh over performing over his past 50 rounds this sample here for schauffer is only about 30 rounds, but Um from inside Five feet. He's not particularly good. He's a 10th percentile putter there. Um, he's actually a 94th percentile lag putter And a 33rd percentile expected putter relative to this field. So If you want lag putting it seems like schauffer has that it's kind of stands out because Watching him when he's at his peak. He's getting up and down. He's saving par He's you know knocking these long putts to tap in distance. Uh, but the underlying data for scottie schauffer with the putter has actually been something that got me less interested in schauffer Than I would typically for a world number one who is a great ball striker Um, I will say that's also kind of caused me to miss out on the recent tony fenowins because he's Done a lot of damage with the lag putting and i'm okay missing out on that because the long term data says that that's Not necessarily what what you want to see by comparison You know rory macklewood gives us the same t-degree game But he's gaining almost point eight shots per round with the putter and it's supported by underlying data So if i'm looking at rory versus schauffer like for this week, I don't really see them particularly close Um, and so that's kind of why i've been a little bit lower on schauffer than than most But again, you know, like you said, he's not a bad putter Yeah, but the underlying data is not particularly appealing right now either. Yeah I don't know I I want to buy in I was on him last week I'm grateful that our that our head to head was already dust because I still did one against you but I had schauffer in it and it was uh quite bad so thankful that was the case I am still tempted by schauffer and Find him very interesting for tournaments. I think that the distinction is for tournaments there because for cash games Your putting numbers are stuff I trust so I don't want to Bet on regression there when it's when the stuff you were discussing probably means that it's probably gonna be bad for a bit But for tournaments, I'm okay at banking on the ball strike and he is still elite there So I think for tournaments, uh, schauffer still very interesting Let's dig into what the bookmakers are saying for this week. Roy McElroy is a favorite He is 10 to 1 if annual sportsbook john rom next up at 12 to 1 Before a whole lot of dudes are 14 to 1 those guys are patrick cantlay matthew fits patrick jesson thomas and scotty schauffer We got will's out of torus and tony fiena while 16 to 1 while collin more a cow is 18 to 1 xander schauffer and sam burns run at the top group bolstering at 20 to 1 now I think the thing that's not to me here brandon is we don't have Clearly defined tiers typically. We'll see like Oh, we got five guys who are shorter than 14 to 1 blah blah blah and there'll be like tear drops We don't really get that it's more like steps step down step down step down step down for this week Are you getting the same impression? And if so, how does that shift your approach for tfs? Yeah, so this is more of A major caliber field and it's kind of reflected in the odds But it's also important to remember that this is a no-cut event And so it should be inherently less volatile than cutting out some guys who just get off to slow starts have one bad round Potentially two but you know for these guys probably one bad round that just isn't good enough with the other round to get them through the cut So we're looking at less volatility and in no-cut events. Usually no-cut events have good fields. So it's That's part of it. But usually in the no-cut events. We see strong winners Guys with good all-around games who can just elevate and get hot in one area And have a good overall game you know along with that so I do see it pretty similarly In terms of my win model, I will say that rory is a bit of a standout at nine and a half percent with You know scottie sheffler. It's 6.1. He's still up there. It's not like There's we can't consider sheffler by any means but it's a bit more gradual from there and honestly if I sort my my spreadsheet by golfers with win odds of 27 to 1 are shorter on fandal sportsbook Basically, it's just a gradual decline. The one outlier is calling more cala who's typically a little overvalued because He does convert wins at a pretty high rate. I don't know if he has the distance this week I really considered him last week Because it was a better setup for him. I didn't quite get there because the all-around game just pretty pretty bad if you look at like some break even Oppression say that like some stabilization points for ball striking in a round or short game He's actually one of the worst players in the field currently If we look at like the the smallest samples that we can trust So I'm probably not going to get there with more cala But yeah, it's it's a pretty gradual decline from there from the top. So that does let me think that I can differentiate from Rory who's going to be chalk if I'm talking tournaments. I mean I love rory for cash games But in terms of tournaments, there's going they're just naturally going to be out of the top like 12 a couple guys who are kind of drastically Underappreciated this week and and the data really says that we should be okay Just going with them one of the takeaway from that could be And you mentioned this in regards to being kind of like a major ask field is we could go towards a more balanced approach Now that's a bit counterthetical to like the way people think Of a no-cut event they think okay, we can be more top heavy because we guaranteed has six of six How do you view that distribution for this week given the way the win odds break down? But also considering what your thoughts are of the 8000 rain for this week Yes, so I've actually done some research on like optimal lineups and looking at you know tougher events I think I specifically no-cut events in there. Um, it's been probably two or three years since I've actually done that But what what no-cut events what tougher events actually say is to go more balanced I think the no-cut event angle of why I can play anybody and they're going to give me four rounds What you're actually saying this like let's take this week in particular like yeah, I'm guaranteeing four rounds of my golfers bargain withdrawal But you're getting four rounds guaranteed of worse play From golfers who are going to have a hard time making up ground on the rest of the field And so yes, if you hit on the one or two values who really pop you're in a great situation, but You're still looking at always like half of the field being a tier below like The guys who really can make a difference and you're willingly Accepting then eight rounds like let's say play two value guys. You're you're getting eight rounds of like very sub par play Yeah, and like that's not necessarily That's actually like That's worse than a no-cut event because you're actually just hoping for volatility that they make the cut and some some other higher like Higher rostered players miss the cut the higher roster players aren't going to miss the cut this week And if Roy Mackler was high rostered and he doesn't win Over four rounds. He's probably still going to finish like top 20. It kind of at worst I know that it can be worse than that. But so yeah in no-cut events Definitely don't get careless with the bottom of your lineup by any means Yeah, I think that for me it's like I do it in terms of like anchors How many guys and anchors not a positive sense here? How many guys are going to drag my lineups down? I don't want that to be three guys who are putting a lid on the upside of my lineup So I might be willing to take A shot at it one Guy wouldn't typically use I think that's the way I view it, you know one guy who has a lower salary I can send me to a prayer for this week. I feel fine spoiling that like he's 82 Like I think need to be fine in like a cut event, but like for this week specifically love it I think the bad that approach works I don't want to bog myself down with three guys who don't have win juice in order to jam in a bunch of guys who do I think that's the distinction for me personally Go ahead. Sorry. Um, I'm drawn into Kurt kityama at minimum salary Because he's long off. He's long off the tee His irons are about field average And in a no cut event at a full 7 000. That's appealing But I would not necessarily do that if it were last week whenever there was a cut. Yeah, I think uh He's got some juice. Okay. All right. We'll talk about maybe we'll talk about kityama Later on you mentioned john rom was getting some steam. You said that he had been bet down 12 to 1 He was 15. That's about other golfers who've odds have shifted Obviously, there have been some shifts because of the kent smith withdrawal, but like overall Whose odds have shifted most notably since things opened? Yeah, hope uh cams. I think hip uh was You know, I I'm sure he's hobbling around. Um, we you know prayers up for kent smith quick recovery, buddy I will feel bad if he actually has correct legitimate injury, but I It was really just the jennifer lorence. Okay, sure buddy. Yes, uh when that happened Yeah, so these numbers Actually come from before the kent smith withdrawal Which I guess also kind of gives me some context as to how they were initially valued, but rory from 11 to 10 I think is still noteworthy as you mentioned john rom 15 to 12 A trio with madfits patrick. Justin thomas and scottie chef. They're all shortened from 16 to 1 to 14 to 1 Collin more cala 21 to 18 Sung j m similar molds to conmore cala 27 to 22 I I kind of like sung j, but I don't know if it's the right the the best fit for him Uh, walking neiman 45 to 34, uh, presumably you're also in on neiman because we tend to always be on neiman, but Um, and madfick neely 120 to 80. I thought was noteworthy just because the field is what it is But those are the most notable golfers who's odds have actually short Shortened pretty sure I had neiman in my head to head last week I'm not entirely sure because it was I didn't think of time to talk through it I don't know as much there, but I'm pretty sure Um neiman wasn't there for me. I don't mind. He's 96 this week I was tinkering with a head to head lineup and I have him in there. I think neiman is pretty interesting once again for this week So those the guys who were shortened That's noteworthy obviously because I mean there's been some interest of some kind I think lengthening this week might be a bigger red flag than usual because of the camp smith news So which golfers odds have lengthened at banglesport's book? Yeah, i'm actually then gonna mention some golfers whose odds have stayed the same because that's almost is That's true problematic. Um, but just the the lengtheners, uh, tom cam 31 to 33 Jordan speed 31 to 34 she and larry 34 to 41. I thought I guess the the larry Phase is is kind of done Um, hedecky and billy horschel 45 to 50 tray mullen as I mentioned I thought he'd get a little bit of buzz because he just nukes it but uh 80 to 100 So that was noteworthy, but if we look at uh, what's a little bit more relevant at the top Um golfers whose odds did not change or maybe changed in their reverberation back to where they were Will's out the tours and tony finnell, uh, both 16 to 1 Xander schroff laid 20 uh, victor hovland 27 I know xander did short and temporarily did at least 19 But he went back to 20 So some recent winners, uh, xalatoris finnell schroff schroff lay Um, I guess if you still consider xander's wins recent, um, did not actually shorten despite the camp smith withdrawal So I think that's pretty noteworthy To to say at least for sure. Uh going back to the guys who lengthened hedecky Uh 45 to 50 Obviously the withdrawal last week But he's in the field this week Are you interested at all if hedecky or do the injury concerns push you away here? I think you could make a case that if hedecky plays and is healthy He could be a very key differentiator because people will be scared off But I also can very easily make the case that other golfers have hedecky's current upside And won't be a risk of literally we're talking about anchors One way to anchor down a lot is to have someone withdraw in a no cut event. So Um, I guess maybe scared scared money don't make money, but I hate that phrase. Oh my gosh People use it for betting and they're like scared money don't make no money And I'm like losing bets also don't make no money either Yeah, so let's not You know Yeah, be responsible. I've I've like never been that's just me some kind of people bother me. I I was doing like I was yeah, that's that my sound clip Yeah, sorry Pretty clearly yes, um, but yeah, I've I've always like I've never really found myself tempted to That's something that I have like Actively don't see value on stupid phrase. You hit like a very specific chord for me there I can tell um speaking of though more cala, uh, yeah, he leads the field in fan chair tags Which I guess makes some sense because he had a good showing last week with the t5 Where he putted well again, I was almost Going to talk myself into more cala, but he gained a ton of fairways on the field Which is helpful, but it was more helpful last week than I think it will be this week. So I would just caution against That a little bit and if we can get more cala to be a bit chalky and be able to Avoid it like I'm not saying that more cala has no chance. We actually can sometimes see shorter hitters Play well at longer courses because if it's too long for everyone, then it doesn't actually matter I just don't see how having a distance advantage on you know like a 490 yard par 4 isn't helpful because yeah, the longest guys who can hit it 350 That's actually, you know going to be an advantage so I'm surprised Do you see enough with more cala that he would be like the most prominent dfs? target nope I could be like a salary related thing maybe because he's he's 10 6 on fando I'm not sure what he is on redacted but like He is his portion of salary cap is lower on fandal than it is other places Okay, so like yeah, it's not even that. I don't know. I don't know. Um I don't see it. It's probably chasing last week. That could be it. Yeah I that's that's about the only pitch I've got personally Uh, which lower salary golfers have I'd say that to you? Um, erin wise our guy, I don't know if he's gonna be my guy this week, but uh 55 to one I think you can be your guy. I think that's fair salary of 9 000 That's the way this week. There are worse guys that quote-unquote guys to have oh this week Yeah, there are worse guys to have but I think that for him The long-term form is not strong enough to feel like he should be at a salary of 9 000 statistically like could be unwise He'd wise He's got decent stats, but if I look at like overall long-term form, it's Not good enough. Um, Taylor pendreth cam davis I like uh a good bit this week 65 to one Same as davis riley 65 to one brian harman 75 to one again. I'm not sold that this is a great fit for him Uh, see heat the gala keegan-browley math mcnealy 80 to one same as keith mitchell who's pretty long off the tee um, then gt poston ben golfing well 95 to one Don't know if it's a poston week with his distance being what is in his arms. Yeah I'd agree with that as well. There are some guys in the list though who I like cam davis specifically Uh spreadsheet runner secret spreadsheet runner cam davis cammer davis Um, does he interest you at 89? Yes, he is one of my uh player picks Kind of a boomer bust play i'll talk more about him in detail But the kind of guy who has upside at a course where distance can really help you separate He's not the only one like taylor pendrith also kind of fits that I was going back and forth between them Uh, but yeah, it's it's a matter of again. I said like it distance alone is not enough but distance with some some pop some paulson other places Uh is appealing and so for me cam davis, uh, he's got what 52nd percentile irons That's very different than uh someone Like a keith mitchell with 12 percentile irons or trey monax with the fourth percentile or windham clark with first percentile, so Um, yeah cam davis. I think does enough Uh and sounds like we're both going to be on him. He might He might might be a head to head play Uh currently in mind I'll say that I think he might be for me. So yeah, okay We're into weather in a second But first we got a question on youtube from deacon to the legend talking about How to build things in single entry and I think this is actually a good talking point Specifically for this week because I think single entry for no cut events is the best It's the best always but he was asking or they were asking I should say Do you build more of a cash game lineup with a couple differentiations or is it a mixture of value and low roster plays? The way to go for me personally, I want to answer this one first for me personally for single entry I want to identify who will be the golfer who is going to be the Person people think they can't fade. I want to play into the FOMO That others may have and try to use that to my advantage. So for me I want to look at a slate and be like, okay people are going to say I can't fade rory macaroy because he is the cash gameplay for this week I think that you kind of just look at what you would do for a cash game and identify Who is going to be the runaway chalk and feel more Freedom to pivot from that. So for me for single entry I actually feel I get more contrarian in single entry than I do even in like Multi-entry tournaments that might be stupid But because I feel like it's easier to pivot in those formats especially in a field like this where I have really good Pivots for me. So I think for me I definitely don't go with a cash game lineup because it's cute because the the payout structure is very different I just want to Be different without being dumb. That's my mindset always for tournaments But I think specifically for single entry. That's the way I want to play things Brandon What about for you? And if you want to spend specifically to this week, how are you thinking about things for single entry on vandal? Yeah, so a lot of people I think have the tendency to throw their cash game lineup into single entry because they're saying well You know, I don't have to compete against these really like contrarian off the wall sort of lineup constructions in in a mat like a multi-entry tournament But like you said, I don't necessarily love that approach I think you have to get a little bit different from just to straight up like who's got the hot We don't say floor really on the show Um, I don't want to send Jim and do another spot. We gotta got you I saw the banner that says ignore the floor over here on the the youtube stream. So I got it back up. You're good Yeah, um, but yeah, I think worry potentially, I guess more cala maybe um like the guys who Probably wind up being the the most popular and so It's always specific to the particular week because if it was like rory and then the second best golfer in the field was like Billy Horschel or something. It's like, okay. That's different. Yeah, that's a bit different, but You know, you can have scottie sheffler john rom Um, not cam smith get well soon cam. Um, but yeah the the the pivoting away from The absolute chalk to someone who is very very similar in terms of projected outcomes Is very real this week. And so I think the the safest thing to do is Build like build a cash game esk lineup. You don't have to play everyone at 10 rot like Figure out who who the most off the wall plays are By any means so i'm probably a little bit safer than what jim was saying where I definitely get more unique in multi entry because I will Kurt kidi amas probably a good example. I don't think I'll play him in a single entry I would play him when I had more line-ups to try to get to because I don't have to be that different in a single entry So it's kind of in the middle for me. But if I said like cash games here and gp like multi entries here Um, I'm going to be closer to the multi entry like tournament lineup Mindset than I am just a straight cash game lineup for a for a single entry other thing I would say for you deacon is If you're entering multiple single entry contests use different line-ups That's the other way to get like multi entries is we obviously like we can't multi account That's that's very against the rules. Don't do that But like let's say you're in a five dollar single entry and a 25 dollar single entry Use different line-ups because you're kind of giving yourself more routes there. I would probably advocate for that, you know three entry tournaments stuff like that those are awesome so Taylor it towards the actual tournament you were in Be different without being dumb. That's always kind of my like headliner for this kind of contest and Enter different single entry line-ups into different single entry events. I think that's the way The key things for single entry. It's the best contest type deacon. So hopefully those go well for you Hopefully that does help answer your question there weather for this week is very calm I got nothing the weather the wind will increase during the day both Thursday and Friday But it's the same pattern both days wind won't get above eight miles per hour either those days or over the weekend So great time for some golf. I think that's the biggest takeaway So we can just dive in to our player picks for this week based on the salaries at fandwall.com Brandon in the stud tier Who are you focusing on for this week? It's going to be Rory He's only t8 and tags on fan share Which is a little surprising to me I don't think he'll that means he'll be an eighth in roster rate, but Yeah, it's a little weird I guess the missed cut last week is Enough one missed cut two rounds of data and we know who wrote a macro is it's not predict two rounds of data It's not predicted for anyone, but especially for someone who's been in the form is that Roy macro has been in Last time he missed the cut was the Valera Texas open and then was runner up at the Masters. So I think you can probably bounce back a little bit, but yeah, I think Rory just is he's the best play of the week in terms of Both upside and I don't know Jim what what word to use but like top 10 Top 10 like floor odds. No one's really particularly close. I'll say that word. Um, I would say median outcome Median outcome best median outcome best 90 best ceiling like I don't know that work I I guess but yeah, if All indications are that distance and iron play are going to help separate Historically no cut events have favored using Like a higher percentage of your salary cap on fandal than a weaker field or no an event with a cut because Winners typically have a higher average salary in these like stronger field no cut events than they do at other events Where there are more chances for these guys to win. So that's going to mean One more balance and yes Starting a lineup with Rory kind of by default means you're going to be the least amount of balance that you can be With anyone else But Rory salary is not prohibitive by any means and I think that there are a lot of ways to build around Rory And still be different So if you're if you're dead set on having Rory in your lineup, even in a single entry or multi entry You can differentiate in other ways because Rory plus someone else can have a very give you a very unique spin versus Rory plus whatever chalk value pops up by thursday And I do think that based on Based on the fan share tags, we can't say Rory will be under roster But I think we can say he won't be the person I pivot from in a single entry I think that's that's kind of the impression that I'm getting where I can still feel good about him in single entry Um, and he is my top player pick as well at the distance week. We won't go ball striking when he birdies It's just that's a Rory week to me. He did miss the cut last week, but not a disaster He struggled with his accuracy off the tee and he was pretty rough on the greens But the approach play is still sick. He leads the field in true strokes game the past six months Got a big gap over third place there I think it's a bounce back week. I think that if I'm trying to differentiate in single entry it'd be with You know, probably Either jt or scottie cheffer. The problem is that jt is also pretty high in fan share tags So I think cheffler might be like the differentiation piece for a single entry lineup The problem is like you said The putting is not fluky and it being bad and that does matter. So I still think like a Rory works for single entry I might go to j or cheffler is my number two. I think that could be the way I'd want to differentiate But that's kind of where I'm at right now. Uh, who else do you like here in this upper range? So I had jt I think it I think i'm gonna go with dander Because 500 goes a long way. Okay. Um, I wanted to shout out how good jt's spike rate spike week rates have been I think he's a great play. But if he is going to be a bit popular Um, then i'm fine with sander who is one of the the guys whenever we want distance but also accuracy So he's probably not going to get himself into massive trouble Um off the tee He's one of the best iron players in the field and he's also one of the best putters in the field And it's always supported by good underlying data sander also Is just like eternally sort of a putting regression candidate In the positive sense because even though he's a good putter. He should actually be better Doesn't necessarily have the best Like success on lag putting that's not necessarily Like to say that he's not a good lag putter. He's got a very nice score of being in the 69th percentile on lag putting over the past 50 rounds Um, so I think that there's a lot to lot to like about sander Yeah, I think that he is interesting to me as well I think that he is intriguing Just like as a as a guy Not just in terms of like what he brings but also in terms of roster construction He's 10 7 That's a pretty good number because you get a lot of win equity for a low salary I like that, but I also for the same reason like tony fenow. He's my second win pickup here. He Finished fifth last week. So clearly fenow's run is dust. He's trash. Um, we can never count in him again But I do like him for this week He ranks third in the field in approach to the past 50 rounds per fantasy national 17th in distance and 10th in birdies are better gained Ben crass is fenow's best potting surface the ball striking phenomenal the past three months He's 11 000 and similar to the the thing we're discussing with zander is we get a lot of win equity for 11 000 And I like that a lot. What's your read on fenow for this week? Yeah, so I mentioned fenow as someone who like if you just say, okay, give me distance off the tee He's got that although he's not he hasn't been as long off the tee as he can be Um, which is nice to see that he's probably diving it back with purpose He's one of the best iron players in the field 94th percentile of their long term and the thing that really always Makes it difficult with fenow for me lately is that since I've looked into the putting regression numbers He's been like a guy who should be much worse with the putter than he is He is ninth percentile from within 15 feet, which is kind of the Like bankable makeable range where you can have some say over it even more specifically 18th percentile from within five feet And 12th percentile from five to 10 However, he's a 99th percentile lag putter makes a lot of bombs. Um, and then once I saw the data I thought back and I was like, yeah, I kind of feel like Tony. I see Tony fenow making a lot of long putts It's a partially a skill. We're probably going to need it this week. Um, good lag putting but I just If I did if I wasn't focused on that I'd say he's a great play I just think that maybe there are slightly better plays. Um at similar salaries Okay, let's dive into the mid-range now. Who is popping for you around the 9 to 10 thousand range of sitting around because I'm Breaking the rules with my first pick. Well, who's your first pick here? Well, it's also like Usually we just do like 9, like 91 to 10,000 for this but that's like seven golfers this week That's true. I don't feel as bad But I feel pretty good uh with both of the guys that I that I am pinpointing. They're not just Obligation names to throw out there, but walking Neiman at 96 Doesn't necessarily jump off the page is someone who we would think of as being long off the tee But he he's long enough a 66 percentile there. He's got good iron play 70th percentile And I always end up targeting Neiman more on bentgrass greens where he's got good numbers there And he's good on par fives because of the you know The the length and the iron play so for me Neiman is someone I would be considering building around in very balanced lineups like let's say I maybe Start my lineup with like Justin Thomas or Really try to see what it looks like if I start out with zander I'm gonna go with Neiman. So like a zander Neiman start gets me 99 25 for four golfers I would love it more if I was enamored with the Upper nines and low tens. It's not like I dislike them, but they don't necessarily stand out to me at salaries substantially But I could see the case for that this week because you then get six golfers who are pretty stellar Uh and four guaranteed rounds of all of them That's kind of that actually fits like the historic no-cut optimal lineup approach pretty well Yeah, the guys in the upper nines, uh, Tom camp you mentioned that his odds have lengthened a bit. He's 98 Hideki's 99 Really horchal not a distance guy. He's 97. I agree their sentiment that the upper nines are Not gonna pop So I think I'll probably navigate around this tier with Neiman being like the the stop for gas in the tier And kind of the move on from there. I think he's kind of the one guy Which is in part why I decided to break the rules of dr. Hovelin being my top mid-range guy he sent to Stretching it a bit, but I think it's worthwhile because He ranks a fourth in the field and approach 26th in distance 15th and birdies have better gained the past hitty rounds He had a rough stretch a couple events ago But both the open and the st. Jude were both very good for hovelin's He's 10-2. I like hovelin quite a bit for the win juice. He brings. What's your end victor hovelin this week? So if I look at my stats only model, um, hovelin sixth in the field Um partially because I have basically no weight on around the green and he's the worst around the green player In the field over the past year, but yeah enough distance with enough accuracy um phenomenal iron player and actually one of the guys who we probably don't think of as being like a good putter, but He is 91st percentile in putting from within 15 feet just 25th percentile uh from 15 feet or longer So that's a combo of you know, he's making makeable putts Um, he's not necessarily making long putts and that historically says like the putting should improve long term. Um I like hovelin. I just didn't quite get there myself. But uh, if I'm messing around with this balanced lineup Especially if I go with uh, this this next guy on our list who's in both of our lists max homa at 9,800 You can really start, you know feeling good about every golfer in your lineup as opposed to Feeling good about five versus four or five. I guess talking about homa then So I think that homa Is a lot like neiman where you don't necessarily think of him as a long driver, but he is um And he's one of the best Like all around golfers honestly in the field if we look at the things that matter So basically just ignoring around the green play He's good on par fives, but uh, he is one of six golfers in the field to have a spike week And at least half of his events in terms of tea to green over the past year and in a third with the putter Just a very rare combo. Um The other six Included sum jm. So they were so they're now all 22 to one or shorter home is not really in that Like tier in terms of win odds or salary. So I think that homa is probably under Salaried and so he's gonna be a key part of my lineups. He might honestly be my favorite play Below like xander at salary of the week I like that. I think I might want actually be a little tiny bit lower on you than him based on that But like in this range, I think he's a standout massive standout. Um, someone I really like here I just think I'm gonna probably be in the 9000 range a lot less than usual That's the one downside with homa that I see is I just don't like this range very much So I might not be here But when I am here homa will be the guy turned to homa and neiman, I think are like the only guys in the 9000 range I really Want to use it all this week. So that's kind of where I'm at there. Um I think he's got a great median outcome brandon, but also a solid 90th percentile outcome We haven't seen the ceiling recently, but I still think it's there So I think the homa grades are really low at 93 Just not a range you want to be in all that often. So let's talk about the value plays here guys add 9000 or lower. Who's popping you there? We've got more overlap here. Do you want to you want to go first here this time? Yeah, it's cameron davis or cam. Well, whatever you want. He's got the distance he can Put on bentgrass. I think that's a fun combo for this week. He ranks 12th in distance gained the past 50 rounds He's 9th in bentgrass putting irons aren't great But like you said, they're not awful ranks 26th and approached the past 50 rounds Especially for the Saturday range. That's not too bad He's rattled off a bunch of good finishes recently even as the fields have gotten tougher Some of those were like, I think he had a good finish in the barracuda like whatever But like some good finishes recently as things have gotten tougher and I do like that So I like cam davis at 89 and he pushed back for you on him. I know he's a player pick for you But what are your thoughts on him? Yes, I mean, there are reasons to think that it won't go well Field worst accuracy and again, this is you know, long rough that could lead to a long four rounds Not particularly great on par fours third percentile there over the past 50 rounds below average overall short game But the positives the reason to think that there's upside here Good bentgrass putting it's very good 88th percentile Supported with good underlying putting splits based on distance 81st percentile driving distance and 50 52nd percentile irons as I mentioned before so like At least average ish irons plus distance good putting if he doesn't get into significant trouble consistently He is going to do well if the rough Proves too much then it could go bad. So it's definitely not a lock But there are no locks here. And that's why I think like once they get past max homa It's A lot of talking yourself into guys being able to do things like I like Russell Hanley at 91 I don't know if he's long enough to contend But he should hit like all the fairways and pick up strokes with the approach play He's also terrible on bentgrass, but you know After homa, I think it gets pretty Dicey it does but davis. I think it's the best one of them. Um, we have our ignore the floor banner I think i'm going to add in a locks don't exist banner to Uh, you said that with davis. I agree. There's no such thing as a lock because someone tells you there's a lock They're lying to you. So he's not a lock. There's no such thing embedding your dfs. Those don't exist Um, if they were if they did exist, you wouldn't be able to bet on them. It's just not how it works. So Keep that in mind, but good range of outcomes for Cameron davis. Who else do you like in the value tier this week? I kind of like keegan-brownley Put up the put up the banner again Oh, no, no, are you gonna do it? What are you gonna do it? Are you talking about his floor? Are we talking the locks don't exist? Both. It's keegan. Let's get let's get wild. Um, Good No, I don't know. I Yeah, the floor definitely ignore the floor with keegan. I think that's fair, but also locks don't exist Maybe keegan doesn't I don't know Go ahead. He's got some good putting splits lately. Um good iron play good distance And the thing for me with keegan is the upside the spike week rates are pretty stand pretty standout-ish Among value golfers. I think that that can't be understated While keegan's best golf is definitely behind him he Has shown up recently in tougher events. It's also like a northeast situation for keegan. I think that might be a little bit of a Of an angle here for this week, but I think keegan 87 is Definitely in play if we're if we're shooting for like top 10 upside here you realize that delaware and vermont are not close at all Is he from boston and that the isn't that his whole thing? It says woodstock vermont. I don't know if that's near boston. I live near boston I should know this stuff, but I don't I bend to vermont. I just don't vermont's pretty far away from boston I thought the whole thing was used like a boston guy. I don't know. I mean like maybe is like from a sports perspective I don't know either way like i've been to delaware I live in pennsylvania. I I think that I know a thing or two about the northeast Uh, how do you spell delaware? Is it del e or a? oh jim Okay, it's an a we're good. Um I don't know it feels like the birds aren't real kind of a segment of pga dfs. Anyway, I think keegan's fine I just I think I have guys I like more specifically cameron davis and mito perrero. It's not with mito down to 8200 dollars and Did get out of his lull a bit last week that was good made the cut Finished 40 seconds. Uh, that's not ideal, but good ball striking there for perrera. He Is 8200 dollars this week. The approach was great even when he was missing cuts I think that's the most encouraged thing with mito just struggled elsewhere. He's not accurate So that doesn't matter as much this week. We like it in our studs to have both, but you know, I'd rather have distance So I think he gets a bump there. He's Stick a golfer I think 8200 dollars. I think scott stalling that the same sour is also intriguing brand any thoughts for you on either perrera or stallings for this week Uh mito is another to consider for me and my helper on number fire like him. He's 14th in my stats only model Stallings didn't necessarily jump out to me um I think he's fine. Just I don't know if he's gonna He's fine, I guess Um But I'd rather go with uh, kief mitral. Okay. Um Taylor panderth as well again very similar uh profile to cam davis and then I'm I was toying with the idea of curt kidiyama um with the balanced lineup, but I had Let's call it four Reasonably salary golfers and then I put in kidiyama and then I had 14,500 for one golfer So I didn't think that was going to do me much good. I mean if you did kidiyama and then just like above Oh, yeah, that's kind of I think I think that like again, we're not We're not advocating Living in the 7000 range. I think that By not having a cut if you can have a golfer who can make some birdies and like potentially some eagles and score some fantasy points even if he finishes like 25th but does so in A very fantasy friendly fashion and then you have literally Minimum salary on one golfer and then you hit on the right combo of studs like that is a winning strategy But we're also I think what's most important is that we're not saying like play three guys in the 7000 range and load up on Yeah Well, I need to have like like you said 14,000 left. So yeah, but It's a big takeaway. I think given the perception of no cut events. Okay Let's finish up your win picks this week. Um, because there are like two weeks left. I could like I could be a A bad person and try to block you with my picks What I'm gonna do is I'm gonna message you my win picks for this week before you say yours And that way, you know, I'm not Tailoring them based on what you pick. Don't look at my message yet. Um But like Okay, I just sent you my picks so you know that I'm not cheating and trying to block you Uh, but who are your win picks for this week based on the current win on the fan dual sports book? So this is honestly a little tough because I now have to guess who you're Going to guess that's on me. I told you one before the show. So Yeah, you know, I'm picking rory. Yes, and I'm okay with you knowing that which I would have done myself You still could I could but then I'm guaranteeing that I can pick Next week's winner, but then you're just gonna pick whoever's first and second. So I'm so I'm still picking guys I think are good relative to their betting odds because I don't want to I don't want to give out like Like these are based on betting odds I don't want to give out bets that I think are bad because my brain doesn't work that way just My brain can't give out anything other than a lock Oh my gosh, I don't kind of pull up to the thing. But yes, you know, it's Only good bets and good vibes, baby And contention for me was scottie cheffler despite what I said about the putting. I think it's a good number Um, or more specifically my model thinks it's a decent number I'm gonna go with justin thomas at 14 to 1 and zander schoffler at 20 to 1 I've cheffler cheffler's my other one. Wait, you went to zander not not rory Are they're gonna pick rory? What's good is having rory get me. I don't know man so I have rory And cheffler my my path to picking rory for the purposes of this contest is to say we both absolutely think rory wins And then i'm not falling behind for next week. Yeah That's it. Okay. So if either jt or zander wins you regain the lead If rory or cheffler wins, I pad my lead but still leave some stuff open for next week It would limit your pool of who you could pick basically. Yeah, and then I would need a winner to Yeah, not a non-chalk winner your win picks are justin thomas at 14 to 1 zander schoffler 20 to 1 I've got rory mac rory 10 to 1 And scottie cheffler at 14 to 1 Any final thoughts brandy before we send off the good listeners the good viewers to fill out their lineups for this week Um with this field being what it is you can make the case for a lot of guys Don't get stuck in the guy who's getting talked up the most That's not to say don't play rory at all but that's also like Roy's the best cash game play but you don't have to play him in every single one of your tournament lineups But also don't completely fade him because I don't think he's gonna be that popular So it's a little bit of nuance this week But that's what makes pj dfs honestly very fun because it's very different every single week based on the field And how the salaries break out. Yeah, and like I said, it's a good week to be different without being dumb I think there are ways you can do that for this week and you might not even You can't always do that with some of these fields. Sometimes you Right just differentiating. You got Julie's silly this week. You have choices smart pivots That's a good spot to be in for us as dfs players Do not forget to subscribe to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast pga mlb Ufc nascar whatever it may be you can find us there nfl less than a month away. Haha Your anxiety is spiking I can tell and it's great Anyway, that's all on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed. Also brandon's betting thoughts on the bmw championship over I almost spilled my coffee over on covering the spread Don't talk with your hands on an audio medium when you don't need to that's me Anyway, get all that over on covering the spread brandon If people have questions for you on twitter, where can they find you there? I'm at gadu la 13 g d u l a 13 And I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan to a podcast network at fan to a podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in. Good luck to you with your dfs lineups We'll talk to you once again next week for the tour championship. This has been covering. Whoops. This is Ah, buddy, it's my third podcast of the day. It's bound to happen eventually We did it. This is Ben. I think the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire question mark