 Thank you, Aziz. I will continue on the same topic, but from different perspectives I will try to focus on extreme events on the side So it's a joint work with my colleague from Uniweather, Yongfoo And it will be about the impact of climate change or water risk on agriculture productivity in the Sahel region. What I mean by the Sahel region is this transition zone between the dry Sahara and this tropical green forest in Africa It's indeed on the border of the Meena region. In general, I work on the Middle East and North Africa region But this region is already concerned the Middle East and I will give some argument why I want really to focus on the Sahel. So the Sahel, according to the last records, is really very vulnerable to climate change and there is a recurrent drought affected the region and when the drought happens in the region it causes losses in terms of production, in terms of human being disease, displacement and sometimes conflicts. So the climate change risk is very important for the region. The second reason to focus on this region is the fact that there is a lot of similarity between the country of the region in terms of economic system, in terms of culture and in terms of climatic condition. So it makes it really very good case study to see how drought can impact the behavior of farmers and the impact on agricultural productivity in general. The last argument is the fact that from geopolitical point of view, this region is very important for North Africa. It's very important for its stability and it's very important also as a way for the management of the migration flow to Europe. Very recently the European Parliament published a new agenda and this new agenda focus on this island is considered from geopolitical point of view, Sahel is really important even for Europe. So this is the main argument that justifies why we want really to focus on this region particularly. Okay. So drought is a common factor in the region. That means it's not really maybe the normal season, it's somewhat un-normal in the region. So it makes it really very good example to see how drought can affect the behavior of the agricultural productivity in general and the behavior of farmers in particular. Okay. Let me first give you a brief idea about climate in the Sahel. So according to the different study it shows that the weather or the climate is becoming more drier and it shows that the growing season is shorter in the region which means that there is less precipitation and higher temperature in the region. The other thing is that the Sahel, there is a high uncertainty about precipitation. That's mean which make any kind of prediction is completely impossible. And so that uncertainty might affect the behavior of the farmers and this is which is really interesting for us is to see how farmers really behave against or facing that kind of high uncertainty. Now what we can say about the future, about the future that there is not really any concerns. That's mean the results are somewhat confusing. We cannot really say anything about how the weather will be in the future for the Sahel. But very interesting study by Held and All in 2005 shows that in addition to the fact that there is a lot of flictiation in precipitation, it seems that trend is going down and in the future there will be less precipitation down which make the situation much more complicated for the Sahel. Now about the agriculture, how the agriculture is in the Sahel. The agriculture is really very underdeveloped. That's mean there is no really, there is low use of improved seeds, there is low use of fertilizer, absence of mechanization. So the productivity is really very low in the region and this is why the main maybe problem of food security in the region. There is a very interesting study by Mendelssohn shows that maybe by 2100 some country from the region, which is Chadniger, will lose all their rain-fed agriculture. That's mean it will be a huge problem for the region in terms of feeding their own population. Now this gives you another idea. Even if the agriculture productivity or the production in jizz is very likely will decrease in the future by production, agriculture is still, the local production or the domestic production is still important for food supply or domestic food supply. It decreased in the beginning of the 16th, it was about 90% of the total domestic supply, now it's about 75% but it is still important. And in the same time if we see the flictiation that's mean there is a lot of variation in the production and the local or the domestic supply varies with the local production. That's mean this may explain by the fact that the region does not really have enough resources really to smooth the domestic supply for example using importation of food. And this explains that food security in the region depends on domestic production and if the production will decrease in the future that's mean we will have, oh the region will face food security problem. Okay. Now what about investment in agriculture in the Sahel because it is quite normal, quite clear that the water condition is worsening so the only way for the region really to get out of this situation is to improve agriculture productivity. And that's mean the region or the farmer of the region needs really need to invest in the new technology that can help really to improve agriculture productivity. So our question is about how we give the incentive for the farmers really to invest more in the agriculture sector in order to improve the productivity or otherwise we ask if the risk related to associated to climate change will affect the behavior in terms of investment in new technology to improve the agriculture productivity. What we can see from the current situation is there is a high risk of crop failure this is related to the fact that there is a high fluctuation in precipitation there is no enough precipitation and there is no enough irrigation by the way. There is also a low value of major cereal crops that's mean there is a market failure that on top of the problem of the bad climatic condition is that add to that all the problem is. The other thing is that access to market is very limited in Africa in general and in particular and this make somewhat investing in the agriculture production at the farm level may be not really attractive. So we will not really focus on the problem of access to market or the fact that maybe prices are not really don't really give incentive to invest on the production view but we will focus just on the risk related to climate change and see how the risk associated with climate change will affect the behavior of the farmers. Okay just let give you me that's me just give you an idea about this how the productivity or that does mean there is still room or scope really to increase productivity. This is an on farm experiment around in the north of Burkina Vasu and the experiment consisted to try to see how we can improve productivity in this side using different kind of strategy for example using more irrigation and use fertilizers. So as you can see for example whatever the season is or whatever the water condition is is in terms of total rainfall we can see that for example using irrigation increased dramatically the productivity and the same time using fertilizer increase productivity by default. And as you can see if we combine both of them that the technology we can increase productivity by three times. This means that there is a way to improve productivity in the region using a new technology. The other thing in terms of using the efficiency in using water it shows that for example when we use fertilizer using fertilizer may improve the efficiency of water. This is another way to prove that using a new technology can improve productivity in the region. So that's mean the problem is not about the fact that technology can be one option to improve productivity but maybe the fact that there is motivation or the incentive to use this technology is the problem. And we want to figure out how climate risk can really affect that motivation. How we will proceed so we will ask how the risk related to drought can affect the agricultural productivity. So we will focus on six countries what we call the core of the Sahel Burkina Vasu, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Senegal and we will proceed in the following way. First we refer to the literature to define what we call the drought episodes. So we use the standard precipitation index to identify the different drought episodes during the period 90 to 2000. After that we will estimate what we call the production losses related to drought shock. And it will be defined as the difference between the production in that year and the production in the nearest normal year in terms of precipitation of course. And this is what we call the loss that this can help to control for any other factors that may not really reflect the reality of the impact of the size of the impact of drought shocks. After that what we try to do is to estimate the distribution probability of that losses. And we call to the general extreme value theory to estimate that distribution. After that we define the risk what we call drought risk and the drought risk will be defined by as the crop losses multiplied by the probability that losses will happen. And the second one we will estimate what we call the agricultural we will not really we will focus on the technical efficiency. And so we will use stochastic frontier model to estimate the stochastic front the technical efficiency. And the last thing is consisted to see what kind of relationship exists between technical efficiency and production and climate risk or weather risk if you would like. Okay. What is the assumption what we think as a kind of relationship that can exist between risk related to climate or to weather and productivity in general. So we suppose two different just that. Okay. Okay. But just to say the idea is to say that we consider that there is a kind of nonlinear relationship between the risk and the technical technical efficiency or the productivity in general. That means it should be a kind of threshold when the risk is too high. At that time the farm may decide to use costly technology to improve its productivity. But when the risk is estimated or or this is given idea the impression of the farmer if he considers that the risk is not too high he may not really be encouraged to use the new technology. So there is a kind of threshold when the risk is supposed to high at that time they may really consider a new technology in order to smooth his production. So this is what we get from the SPI and as you can see that the drought episodes increase it dramatically during the 17 and the 18. Now by the beginning on the 19 and the 2000 the situation is much more better but in 2012 it seems that we are going back to the same situation that's more drought and more climatic problems. So and after that we measure what we call the drought damages the crop losses and compared to the nearest normal year. And after that we fit to the data what is the distribution probability what you give me what we call the exceed some probability which gives you the idea how the probability that for example the loss caused by drought will let's say exceed certain value. Okay this is the technical efficiency and give an idea about how how the productivity or technical efficiency behaves. Okay this is the regression result this is what we get we regress the efficiency on risk precipitation fertilizer consumer price because we consider that in this I may be consumer price reflect the price of food. And this give an idea that when the price of food is really high this may encourage farmers to invest in in in agriculture and this may increase the technology technical efficiency. So we get this result we get a negative impact of risk on efficiency and we get precipitation of course increase efficiency fertilizer and prices. But the most important result is the fact that the more the more open economy to trade are less affected by climate by the risk associated to climate change. And the higher is the growth or the higher that means the macroeconomic context in the in one country might affect its vulnerability to the climate risk. This may explain it but that one the economy is very diversified when we have more options. This will help the farmer to diversify the risk and so that decrease indeed the the the the the sensibility or the sensitivity I'm sorry to to the risk related to climate change. And this give an idea that there is a way really to decrease the impact of risk on the decision to use a new technology in order to improve the productivity. Is to make the economy is growth or development in general and to make the economy more open. They make the economy more open this help the economy to weather any risk related to a climate change. So we did other analysis to see if there is any difference between the short run behavior and the long run behavior. And it seems that facing the same level of risk farmers behave completely differently when it comes to the long run. That's me in the short. In the short run they may not really tolerate even if the risk is too low they may not really tolerate that risk. But at the long run because they are they depend on the agriculture production when the risk is too high. They are they are very likely they will invest in new technologies so that the technical efficiency will will increase. So to conclude I'm sorry for taking more time. So we can say that this is quite clear that it's really very vulnerable to climate change. And the other thing that the the frequency of drought and the damage caused by drought is increasing over time. Risky related to climate change is seems to have an impact on the behavior of farmers. So it has an impact on the agriculture productivity and we can show that the better macroeconomic environment more trade with the internet. More trade may help to smooth the impact of climate change risk on agriculture productivity. Thank you for your attention.