 Hello, everyone, and welcome to Market Talks on Cointelegraph with me, Joe Hall, where we discuss the latest in what is shaping the markets, along with valuable insights from industry leaders, traders, and your favorite, I'm sure, influencers. Now, today's guest is Wrecked Capital. But before we get started, I'd just like to shout out the wonderful usual host, Tim Warren, who sadly can't make it today due to issues with the recent hurricane in Florida. So, you know, razor-glass to Tim. Now Wrecked Capital, our guest today, is a pseudonymous crypto analyst who shares macro research, commentary, and technical analysis related to the crypto markets. He publishes a very popular newsletter that provides courses that help educate traders on how to make informed decisions when buying and, of course, selling crypto. He boasts more than 328,000 followers across his various social media platforms. That's roughly the population of Amsterdam and half the population of Amsterdam, I should say. And many of his followers are incredibly prominent individuals. There's big, no, astronomical names like the Binance CEO, you guessed it, CZ, or CZ, as he's known in the United Kingdom. Coming up now, we've got a smashing intro video from Wrecked Capital himself. Wrecked, take it away. Yo, Wrecked, how are we doing today? It's all good, man. Thanks so much, Joe, for having me on here on the show. Oh, it's our pleasure. We love to talk to traders and market analysts, and it really helps us with our job as well. Of course, I'm on the news team regularly with Cointelegraph, so I'm fed a lot of your research. I'm really looking forward to jumping in. But first things first, while we've got some excellent questions lined up for you, I'm really dying to know something. Why are you called Wrecked Capital? Is it because you got Wrecked? Yeah, that's a really good question. And I think it does start somewhere with having some capital and having that capital get Wrecked very early on in the journey. It's inevitably what happens to any investor who wants to start in the crypto space, or really any space, investing in markets and trying to understand the charts, the price action, whether that's fundamental analysis, looking at different coins and projects, the teams and what those blockchain protocols do, trying to immerse yourself in that, but also the technical analysis side, trying to understand the psychology embedded in the price action of Bitcoin, Ethereum, other cryptocurrencies. And just starting on my journey in trying to understand technical analysis, in this case, I love to understand the psychology that's embedded in the chart. After all, charts are a historical transcript of fear and greed and understanding those cycles of extreme fear to extreme greed. You can really understand how markets work, how coins move in their price action. But the beginning is always difficult and it's very humbling, and it's always destination wrecked, really. The very beginning is always difficult. You have to learn how to lose money, you have to learn how to make money, but inevitably the beginning is where you have to learn some harsh lessons to gain that very valuable reference experience that will carry you to your financial goals over time. Well done. I mean, get Wrecked no more, I hope so. There was already some incredible nuggets of wisdom in your intro statement there, so I'm keen to dive in, especially as a little birdie tells me that you might have some excellent chart porn coming for us. So first question, what is your outlook for the crypto market as we enter quarter four? It's with us already, October, November, December of 2022. Yeah, that's a great question because many people are excited about the current state of affairs when it comes to Bitcoin's price action, particularly the very relatively strong beginning. I think people are more excited about finally having a green candle and some movement towards 20K in a micro uptrend. But we've been at these levels before in more of a downtrending, sloping price action, but people weren't very excited about going towards a downside to 20K last month, even the month before then. But the same prices are evoking different emotions right now. So that's a shift in psychological sentiment. Really interesting. Let's dive into the first chart just to talk about what the macro price predicament of Bitcoin looks like. Really just to gain an idea through the lens of that psychology that I mentioned, where, you know, last month, for instance, we saw a red candle the month before that we saw a red candle without any wicks, really, but just a full bodied candle. So strong sentiment there. But if we just focus very simplistically on this range here, the green range and the red range, or at least the green level, the range low support and the red level here at 23,300 being a range high resistance. Bitcoin has been consolidating inside this range since June, July, throughout the summer, really. And last month, Bitcoin monthly closed below the green level, which means that what was once a support might be a point of rejection. It might be resisting price. So essentially, the buyers are telling us through this graphic depiction of investor sentiment that what was once supporting price and holding price up this monthly candle close last month is showing to us that maybe buyers or at least sellers are now resisting this price. And this month, we've seen a green candle, but that green candle hasn't gone above this green level. So that previous support might be turning into a new resistance. And technically speaking, this is classified as a range breakdown. And now we might see that shifting psychological sentiment at 20 K where before there was a source of rebounding, now it could be a source of rejection. So in a nutshell, technically speaking, Bitcoin is actually set up for downside continuation, especially if Bitcoin can't break above 20 K and reclaim it as a support. Interesting, considering that green level, I remember that day that we powered through that green level for the first time. It must have been around December the 15th, 16th, something like that. 2020, yeah, 2020. Yeah, that's right. And I'm watching this chart and this huge green lightsaber broke my phone while I was looking at the chart at the time. And I thought, you know, this is it, bull runs on, baby. And yet two and a half years later, we're struggling to break through it again. And if you told me this then that we'd be struggling to get through this level, I probably wouldn't have believed you because I would have thought that by, you know, October 2022, we'd be up in the 40s, 50 Ks. So yeah, I do get the sentiment about this psychological stress. But what about more concretely, October? Is it going to be the promised October, you know, the one that gets everyone going? What do you feel about the next sort of 25 days? So just talking about that lightsaber, you can see that when 20 K was turned into a support, that's when we really saw that uptrend jumpstart and truly see that upside continuation, which was quite impressive. Now you're seeing a totally different sentiment, a macro downtrend, very little reaction from the over the past few months. And now this 20 K region potentially resisting price. October could still happen if it reclaims 20 K as a support and that October could go all the way to even 23 300, maybe even this month. But the whole idea is that is that going to be a long upside midwit like we saw last month, where Bitcoin just see some upside volatility briefly, but actually monthly candle closes below the green level. Because if that were to be the case, then we're still set up for a rejection. So the way I think about October or October rather is whatever happens right now this month isn't it's just noise in the grander schema things in the context of the macro picture. It's just volatility that isn't really giving us a meaningless sign, meaningful sign rather for any directional shift. So at the moment we're still in a general bottoming out process. And the bottom might not be actually in if we actually move to the next chart. Because we've been looking at the monthly timeframe thus far. This is the quarterly timeframe. And we actually got a new quarterly monthly close quarterly candle close rather. And if we just think about the monthly saying that we're seeing a breakdown potentially 20 K is turning into a resistance, the quarterly is actually showing us that we've also broken down from a range, which is much wider. It's a more wider range because simply the quarterly time frame has price action spaced out in a different way. The candles are potentially longer, for instance, in late 2020. So the major resistance for the quarterly chart is 29 K. 20 K is the support at the same time, just like on the monthly. But above all else, we're also seeing a range breakdown, 20 K struggling to be reclaimed as a support, figuring as a resistance. And if we just move to the next chart, if we can seem to reclaim 20 K as a support moving on to the next chart, we will see two blue levels, which are the most major support levels that are waiting for Bitcoin just to support that price. One of those levels is 17 K. And the other level is 13 900, which is actually the June 2019 high. So those are two major demand areas waiting for Bitcoin. And if we can't, if Bitcoin can't muster much of a reaction around the 20 K region and things continue this way, where 20 K is a resisting price. Or even if Bitcoin rallies the 23 300, but gets sharply rejected and drops below 20 K once again, then we might see those lower levels, 17 K primarily. And 13 900, if that 17 K fails to hold. Got it. Okay. So it looks like, well, from the notes that I'm taking as you speak here, because you know, I'm keen to learn. 23 100, you know, we're looking like a bit of a shift or a trend reversal. Currently, we're looking more at an October bear than an October. And the bottom might not yet be in yet. But I also think that, you know, the 13 K and the 17 K prices, this is when I start to look around the room and think, you know, do I really need this coin telegraph hat? You know, could that fetch, you know, $10 on eBay? That's, you know, point zero zero zero one of a Bitcoin at that point. Things really start to get quite interesting, let's say from a long term, the Hodler perspective, what would drive the price down to say a 17 K and then a 13 K, you know, these crucial levels of support, I should say 13.7 because I think that's less scary than a 13 K price. I think from a technical point of view, if we just look at things in a vacuum, technically 20 K figuring as a resistance, that could reject price to 17 K. And if things, if there isn't a positive catalyst, finally, because we've just been seeing a slew of macro negative catalysts across the board, really, not much positivity. And if things just persist that way, there won't be much of a recovery even in the absence of any real negative catalysts coming up soon. So necessarily, catalysts could prolong downside continuation, but they're not going to kickstart a rejection necessarily, although it really does depend on the catalyst. But for instance, in earlier this year, the war with Ukraine, that was a major catalyst that affected markets. And unfortunately, or rather, just matter of factly, Bitcoin is very much correlated with other assets and it has bouts of decorrelation, but they're very few and far between. But if we were just to move on to the next chart and try and understand where Bitcoin could go and looking at a really important metric here, for instance, the 200 week moving average, these green circles show us that historically, Bitcoin has actually bottomed at this 200 week moving average with some downside volatility. So for instance, in 2015 and late 2015, so early and late 2015, downside wicking price action below the 200 week moving average saw some downside volatility, but ultimately, Bitcoin was able to hold this support and bottom there and rally towards the upside in 2018 December. We didn't see any downside wicking below the 200 week moving average. In fact, we saw consolidation range, accumulation range form there before rallying to 3,900 March 2020, downside deviation below the 200 week moving average before further upside. So this is actually a chart from May 23rd. If we move on to the next chart, actually, which is up to date with today's date, we'll notice that historically, either Bitcoin bottoms at the 200 week moving average, or it performs downside wicking volatility below the moving average. And this downside deviation, this downside volatility ranges from minus 14% to minus 30% like we saw in March 2020. Right now in this market cycle, we've seen a downside deviation of minus 22%, which falls bang on between this minus 14 to minus 30% range in terms of downside deviations. So there is certainly scope for additional downside, particularly if we think about the 200 week moving average and how it's actually behaving because before it would figure as a support, candle bodies were printing above the 200 week MA and just downside deviating every now and then below it, but ultimately slinking back up and holding that support here. We're actually seeing something totally different. Candle closes occurring regularly, systematically, consistently below this MA and this 200 week moving average is actually figuring as a resistance. So it's interesting how in the first chart, we spoke about 23,300. Well, the 200 week moving average is approximately that price level as well. So we're seeing some confluence where that potential stronger rejection could take place. So that 200 week moving average is going to figure as a resistance in the shorter term. And if there is a rejection from there, then we could see further downside as per history, because there certainly is scope for that additional downside deviation below this MA. Absolutely. I mean, I for one did not think that the 200 week moving average would break the way it did and we'd stay under for so long. I've always considered it to be this yellow brick road that, you know, the Bitcoin price, you know, follows and bounces off occasionally and that's very scary, but never really goes much below it. It's a refreshing dose of realism that you're providing for us here, Rex. Thank you. But let's let's get optimistic and let's get hopeful. What could this could be an event? This could be a, you know, a breakdown in macroeconomic climate right now. Is there something which could catalyze an upward movement in the Bitcoin price here? I mean, you know, we can really use our imagination here. What if China starts buying Bitcoin, you know? What if Microsoft decided to suddenly implement the Lightning Network as a payments route? Do you think there could be some giant macro move here? Or is this completely me just copium, you know, really strongly? Well, it's really interesting that you mention China because China has been has had a reputation of banning mining. And early on in Bitcoin's history, those sorts of negative catalysts have had tremendous effects on Bitcoin's price action. We've seen minus 50 percent downtrends or even more when those initial bans took place. But one of the more recent bans, I can't remember how long ago this was, you know, several months ago, one of those bans really just yielded a minus percent draw minus minus five percent draw down or something like that. So we're seeing how those sorts of catalysts aren't having an effect on price anymore. They're priced in, to some respect. I just like to make a note about that. But when it comes to bullish catalysts reversing this bear market, having this bear market bottom be in and kickstarting the new uptrend, what's interesting to note when it comes to Bitcoin's fundamental catalyst, which is upcoming in April 2024, that's the Bitcoin halving, which is a fundamental shift in the Bitcoin protocol where Bitcoin created every 10 minutes is cut in half essentially. So the amount of Bitcoin produced every 10 minutes is cut in half. That supply, that's incoming just drastically changes pretty much overnight. That's upcoming in April 2024. What's interesting from the macro perspective is that the Fed is not anticipating any interest rate cuts until then. So that's an interesting alignment. That's an interesting confluence there. Because historically, and we'll be talking about this later on in the show, historically, Bitcoin tends to rally quite exponentially after its halving event. So that's an interesting thing to take away. The Bitcoin halving as a major catalyst in terms of the crypto space, but interest rates changes in alignment with the Bitcoin halving, that's an interesting development, or at least, you know, if things don't change, because that announcement has been made a few months ago, we'll see how things pan out. But that's that's quite curious to me. OK, interesting. I mean, yeah, August 2024 seems quite a long way away. Have you got a halving party planned yet? There is one in El Salvador. I don't know if it's on your radar yet, but, you know, people are already getting excited about this moment and there are parties being organized. I think it's equivalent to a Bitcoin Christmas. Do you know where you'll be? August 2024, possibly El Salvador, or another country to accept Bitcoin is legal tender? I have no plans at the moment. Mostly I just focus on the historical tendencies is what I tend to focus on around these events and just celebrating online. I think the last time we had the halving, I was very active on Twitter and just posting charts and and what the halving means for Bitcoin's price action. I remember distinctly that there was a lot of by the hype. So the news sort of effect where people bought Bitcoin ahead of time and the halving came and went and everybody was a bit disappointed, very much like the Ethereum merge, which is quite interesting. And it's all about just letting investors, people know on Twitter that that nothing isn't going to nothing's going to happen in the short term when it comes to the halving effect on price, but these are these are gradual changes or rather than fundamentally that massive drastic changes. But in terms of price, price appreciation takes a while to mature and have that effect over time when it comes to technical analysis. So it takes a while for that maturation to be evident in price, but the halving is a strong catalyst and it's it's worth celebrating, but perhaps not in the short term, but more in the long in the long run. Yeah, and if, if not, there's always amazing memes around that time, aren't there? Back to Tragfi stuff, because you mentioned a little bit about interest rates and of course, the way in which the Fed is to some extent dictating the macro environment currently. What about the decoupling? Are you one of those traders who celebrated the, what is it, 2% difference between Bitcoin's volatility and the S&P 500's volatility over the past couple of weeks? Some people are calling for a decoupling already. What's your take, Rekt? Are we seeing the great decoupling that we've always been promised? I don't believe we're seeing a decoupling where we're probably seeing more of a coupling, if you compare it that way, there's a very strong correlation between the two, and it's really important to just understand that the S&P 500 can, can be quite useful in giving us an idea in terms of what sort of additional downside we could potentially see. And the 200 week moving average, if we just focus on, on the chart for a second, the 200 week moving average is an important metric, not just for Bitcoin, but it's also quite important for the S&P 500. So perhaps we could skip, since we're on this question, perhaps we could skip a few charts for the moment, because if we go on to the next chart, thinking about the downside deviation volatility of that range minus 14% to minus 13, 30%, if we were to see downside deviation of 14%, we could see 19K for Bitcoin. But moving on to the next chart, if we were to see something more closer in that downside deviation to 30%, 28%, that could get us to 15K. So that's in alignment with what we've been talking about earlier on in the episode. But moving on to the next chart, if we just think about this data science metric, this is a 2MMA multiplier where essentially whenever Bitcoin's price action is below the green moving average, which is the 2 year moving average, this is where Bitcoin tends to bottom out. And you can see this across history. Anytime Bitcoin is below the green area, the green moving average, this is where Bitcoin finds support, its space, and then ultimately breaks above that 2 year moving average and rallies towards new highs. So moving to the next chart, just to analyze this bottoming out process right now, when people ask me what's a great price, where could Bitcoin bottom? What's a great price for Bitcoin? If we focus on this 2 year moving average, anything below it is a fantastic bargain, just looking at the historical tendencies. Anytime Bitcoin is below the 2 year moving average, and then it recovers back above the 2 year moving average, being in that area is where Bitcoin finds its bottom, that's the best time to be a bargain buyer. And this 2 year moving average on this chart right now, it showcases a price point of 37K. So whatever downside deviation we're seeing below the 2 year moving average, that's anything extra, anything below 37K is a great opportunity. Of course, you want to get in at the lowest point possible, but even 37K over the long run would be a great price point. And this chart just showcases that we're consolidating at this 20K region for a while now. And these ranges can take quite a while, but above all else, really important to understand this bottoming out area. The bottoming out area is already being built here, but the absolute bottom might not yet be in, but still nonetheless, anything below 37K is a bargain. And really with 20K, it's even more of a bargain really. And moving on to the next chart, actually, we can look at some of these historical tendencies, because they are quite important to just mention, just to tag along what we've talked about with the halving, with the S&P 500, because we're working towards that S&P 500 chart and these correlations between Bitcoin's price action. This is what I like to call the three macro triangles, where we have a multi-month resistance, the black slanting diagonal resistance, and a horizontal base for each of these three macro triangles. And we see that this base of this descending triangle breaks down. We see the yellow circle successfully changing the base of that triangle into a resistance zone, rejecting price to new all-time highs, new all-time lows, apologies, and then breaking to new highs. But each of these triangles showcase to us that Bitcoin needs to break down from the triangle. Those yellow circles showcase downtrend acceleration. And we potentially have passed that point in this cycle. We've seen downtrending acceleration, like we've seen in the past before. Now Bitcoin might be slipping to new lows, but those might be the final lows, and it might not be that acceleration that we've seen already. But it might be a gradual inching towards those new lows. And in terms of moving to the next chart and in terms of understanding how much more those lows, what could we anticipate potentially, breaking down from these triangles, we've seen minus 50% to minus 65% drawdown. At the moment we've seen minus 48%. So if we were to see anything between 50% to 65%, like we've seen historically, the next chart holds the answer to that question. Because these are the levels that are outlined yet again. So we're constantly seeing that confidence that we've been talking about these price levels. We have 17k and 12k really. So if we were to see a 50% drawdown from the triangle, that's 17k. If we were to see 65% drawdown, that's 12k. But could we see that level of volatility like we've seen in the past? Well, it's a maturing asset. Bitcoin is becoming a maturing asset. Back then, when we saw 65% drawdown, that was a much more volatile market. But the next chart showcases the Bitcoin halving events that we've been talking about in today's episode. And the Bitcoin halving events are marked here in blue. And these blue vertical lines just showcase to us that Bitcoin tends to break beyond that black slanting resistance of this triangle. Around 366 to 396 days. And if this were to be the case once again, whether that's 397 days, 396 days, that breakout could take place in in January, February, March of next year. But that's a break of the downtrend. Before then, we still have to find that bottom, which is quite interesting to mention. But moving on to the next chart and the last thing about the halving before we move on to the S&P 500 question that you asked earlier on. This is something that we're kind of working towards. These halving events, Bitcoin tends to bottom and register that absolute bottom. 517 to 547 days before the halving event. And we're getting quite close to 547 days before the upcoming halving in April, May 2024. If Bitcoin were to bottom 547 days before the halving, then we could see a bottom in November. If it were to be 517 days, that would be December. And if we're seeing a declining tendencies in the amount of days, you know, because before July 2016, we saw 547 days. Before May 2020, we saw 517 days. If we see a declining by a month, approximately, and we see Bitcoin bottom 486 days before the halving, that would be January of next year. So it's really interesting to see how the halving is a really important, not only fundamental catalyst, but a really important technical signpost when it comes to the price action of Bitcoin. And these historically recurring tendencies that Bitcoin tends to bottom a certain amount of time before the halving, it tends to break the macro downtrend at a certain point before the halving. But I'm sure you'll be delighted as we move on to the S&P 500 chart going in here, is if we're talking about decoupling, moving on to the next chart, it's important to mention that historically we've seen deep corrections on the S&P 500, minus 50 percent, minus 57 percent, minus 36 percent, and now minus 25 percent. So minus 25 percent to minus 57 percent, that's something that we can come to expect from S&P 500 drawdown. And if we move to the next chart and look back even further into history, we'll see that minus 29 percent in the late 50s, early 60s, 23 percent, 37 percent, 50 percent. Just looking at these figures, we're seeing a drawdown of minus 25 percent at the moment, but we can still see drawdown of up to minus 57 percent. But the lower range, the lower end of that range is minus 23 percent. So right now being down on the S&P 500, being down minus 25 percent, just touching that minus 23 to minus 57 percent range, we're just really just tapping into that historical average on the S&P 500 and it's really important to mention this orange line here. This is the 200 week moving average that we covered on Bitcoin's price action and we're covering here on the S&P 500 because downside deviations below the 200 week moving average on the S&P 500 can actually give us some insight into where the S&P 500 could bottom because there is no decorrelation, so we have to look at the correlation and matter of fact try to understand where could the S&P 500 bottom and try to align that where Bitcoin's price action will be at that time. So if we move on to the next chart and have that downside deviation below the 200 week moving average from the 60s to the 80s roughly, downside deviation below the 200 week moving average minus 14 percent, minus 10 percent, 26, 38 percent, so anything between minus 10 percent to minus 38 percent downside deviation below the 200 week moving average on the S&P 500. So let's keep that in mind and move to the next chart armed with these with these insights because right now if you focus on this chart on the S&P 500, we're actually touching the S&P the rather the 200 week moving average on the S&P 500. So we haven't even downside deviated. So number one takeaway here is that we're only just touching that historical range of historical corrections on the S&P 500. Remember we see 23 percent minus 57 percent drawdown on the S&P 500. We're only seeing minus 25 percent. The second takeaway is that we tend to see downside deviations behind below this 200 week moving average and this downside deviation can you know range from 35 percent to 49 percent, 16 percent, whatever the case may be, but the S&P 500 simply hasn't downside deviated below this 200 week moving average. So going back to that question you posited earlier on, are we seeing decoupling where we're not seeing any decoupling? We won't see any decarrelation anytime soon. I'm just wondering when could we see that decarrelation really? It could probably come at a time where the S&P 500 has finally bottomed. It has performed a bit of an uptrend. So for instance it has downside deviated. Let's assume that downside deviates in the coming months, bottoms out, whatever that downside deviation is, you know up to 20 percent, 35 percent, whatever the case may be, the S&P 500 bottoms out, recovers, recovers back above the 200 week moving average, enjoys a bit of an uptrend perhaps to new highs and there has to be some sort of stability after that initial uptrend and Bitcoin would probably be enjoying an uptrend of its own in that bull market that it has still yet to enjoy which is upcoming in the next few years. But it's only when the S&P 500 will stabilize in its uptrend probably that we might see some bouts of decarrelation which shouldn't be too sizable really. So that's my long-winded way of talking about that decoupling and decarrelation. No decarrelation in sight and when we do see it it will be in much favorable market conditions all around. Okay okay really interesting stuff here so much detail, thank you Rekt. I've got a few follow-up questions but before we get to them firstly I've realized that my tribute to Michael Saylor, my little yacht or the one that I could afford has fallen over you know that he puts is a that could be a sign of the bearish price action and the fact that it is a bit bleak and the horizon at the moment but I wanted to jump into the chat as CryptoCloud very kindly asked the question that I'd like to pose to you so thank you CryptoCloud shout out and will the bear last throughout next year? You mentioned till January that could be like the turnaround point but could it go further could we go you know that could 2023 be a great year to DCA? Let's put it that way. I think that's a great question. Two things when thinking about that question we have to think about price price wise capitulation so historically we tend to see bear market corrections of on average 84 and a half percent right now Bitcoin has retraced 75 percent roughly so in terms of just matching that historical average we've seen minus 93 percent corrections minus 80 percent minus 84 and a half percent corrections in terms of that price wise capitulation there is scope for additional downside and in terms of price or at least time wise time wise time based capitulation when it comes to the reference point the technical signpost that is the halving that bottom could take place in Q4 this year or Q1 of next year but I think the bear could therefore last into Q1 of next year but then we should start to see some recovery I think at worst we could see the bear last into Q1 of next year before seeing some uptrending price action some some changes in the price action I think most people are worried about extended consolidation many people are comparing this time to 2015 where Bitcoin consolidated endlessly for nine months Bitcoin has been consolidating for four months now new lows are still quite possible of course but the absolute bottom should be in by Q1 and I'm just wondering whether in that question that was asked is is not sufficiently uptrending price action also considered you know bearish or a bear market because we might have long bouts of just uptrending price action that isn't very exciting because just to answer that question really in a bit more detail let's move on to the next chart and focus on what happens before a halving event and what happens after a halving event because prior to a halving event if we look at November 2012 the first blue line on the left hand side Bitcoin rallied 600 percent and it was it was climbing climbing slowly climbing over a period of months they these are monthly candles so it takes a long time for Bitcoin to rally that 600 prior to a halving event but then you see after the halving event in 2012 Bitcoin rallied 9 000 in a drastically shorter amount of time and if we look to 2016 prior to 2016 we saw an extended consolidation range but Bitcoin rallied 400 in a period during a period of multiple multiple months but after the halving we saw exponential price action acceleration in the uptrend upside continuation to new all-time highs 4 000 upside after July 2016 and the last halving that we have a disposal when it comes to technical analysis prior to May 2020 300 towards the upside from the bottom during a few months then we saw downside for many more months but after May 2020 we saw in a shorter period of time drastic price acceleration 600 so going back to that question we can see slow uptrending for a longer period of time prior to the halving which is going to be capped because historically we've seen 600% 400% prior to the halving 300% prior to the halving could we see 200% prior to the halving that's still relatively decent but that 200% is going to occur over a period of several months so the question is that's not bearish but to most people it's going to be quite boring or you know people are going to lack the patience so it all comes back down to will we be patient enough to hold going into the halving because it's not going to be very exciting in the moment moment to moment month to month not much price appreciation but looking back multiple months you'll see well 200% in a few months just holding that was pretty great but in the moment it wasn't very exciting so i think it's worth holding and even if things feel bearish don't feel like things are moving much they are moving and it's great to have a longer term perspective and to just understand that things take time and after the halving things really do start to accelerate there you go there you go crypto cloud i wanted to refer to another question in the time in the chat even this time from korei religionarios del tiempo who i'm guessing is brazilian or portuguese and his question is related to gavin woods cryptocurrency the one that he coded up after he helped to code or he wrote the first lines of code for ethereum he said do you think we will see dot as in polka dots do we see will we see dots at $100 soon that's a huge price appreciation um thank you and regards from brazil oh there we go here's from brazil um that is uh i mean what's the the price of dot right now i've i've forgotten for a while that um the dot was still going is it um what is the price of dots what do you think right i actually don't actually don't make today six dollars well so all coins in every cycle yeah in every every cycle you see uh all coins retrace at least minus 90 percent 95 some even 99 percent and if down to this question would be if you've done sufficient fundamental analysis read around the topic of the project say abreast with the news and the updates that the team is pumping out every now and then and of course if they are pumping out i'm not i'm not familiar with um with what the project is doing at the moment really but if they are working hard throughout this spare cycle and things are coming out and they're launching new updates every now and then regularly with an increased frequency even those are strong projects that have the potential to recover quite substantially in in in the bull market that comes uh in the next few several months maybe even years i'm not really sure i can't remember what the all-time high of uh dot was so that's a that's a good question to ask but i i know or at least what was it actually sorry it's it's 53 so that would technically be a 2x from the previous last you know all-time high of last year's bull run right right now the price is six dollars so well it's an interesting question to pose whether that's through the lens of somebody who's holding dots from a high price point for instance and is just waiting to break even or whether that's through the lens of an investor who wants to be a bargain buyer knows about the project then what it's doing is focused on those fundamental developments and and watching these potential catalysts that will really start to bear fruit in the bull market and and if if if that's the case somebody has done their due diligence in this bear cycle with dot being 90 90 percent down or wherever bargain buying right now could potentially be be a great idea if those are the scenarios that that are indeed the case so it does really depend on what what the what the where the question is coming from because whether that will rally to 100 dollars i mean there are loads of altcoins that made their new old-time highs and never never recovered to reach those old all-time highs and in fact with each bull market they've rallied even less and less and less such as you know coins from from 2017 i will i won't name coins from 2017 but there are many projects i mean many altcoins simply can't perform later on in the cycles but if you see coins like chainlink for instance which has a historical heritage of uptrending price action over time with corrections in between but ultimately rallying to new all-time highs in in every cycle really important to focus on those sort of coins and try and focus on the price action and see those historical tendencies in the price action of of altcoins and i don't have the chart of dot in front of me so i can't really say much about it in terms of the historical recurring tendencies and dot's price action but it would be interesting to see what those market cycles are and if if they do repeat then potentially we could see dot trend much higher it's difficult to say without a chart to hand i would just like to add there that there's only what three coins that have had new all-time highs against bitcoin in a you know a following cycle and one was dogecoin off the back of you know Elon Musk pumping it uh one was bnb but let's be honest by now that the marketing machine is just a force to be reckoned with and i think the last one i'm not 100 percent sure is xupi um you know they have one cycle which it pumps you know ridiculously then it just sort of drops off compared to bitcoin so i would refer you to my wonderful ipad here and just uh you know stick to bitcoin sometimes it can be an easier way of getting um getting on with things in the markets um i'm aware of time here rekt and i um can i jump into a final question here which is the most important one let's be honest here um what would you say is the best strategy sorry for the current market conditions would you buy would you sell would you hoddle or dca and i guess we're talking about bitcoin specifically but you know you can refer it to crypto as well if you'd like to yeah i think uh a mixture of these strategies that you've pointed out so so what i'm doing for instance i'm buying i'm dollar cost averaging and i'm doing these things to hoddle for at least after the halving because i know that price and we've spoken about this today that price tremendously appreciates after the halving so anything below 37 k as per the two-year moving average data science metric that we spoke about earlier on in today's show anything below that if you just focus on that chart anything below 37 k is a good spot to start dollar cost averaging so if we're at 20 k now if if i can get anything below 20 k and dollar cost average there then then that's great for the long term so i'm absolutely a bargain buyer right now buying laddering my buys so the way dollar cost averaging i perform my dollar cost averaging is i think of it as a ladder and sets of orders are like rungs on the ladder and as price depreciates and goes down each rung on that ladder is going to be increasingly weighted in how much fiat i i deposit to to that buy order so for instance at 20 k i'll buy one bitcoin for instance at 19 k i'll buy 1.1 bitcoin for instance or 1.2 whatever the case may be i'm just going to be increasingly waiting the cash deposit on these buy orders as price goes down because this way you get to accumulate increasingly more bitcoin at cheaper and cheaper prices so buyer dollar cost average hodler nice three of the four i like that and i know i said that was the last question rex we've got a bonus one because why not what would you say is the ideal diet for a trader i mean what do you eat or drink to keep your brain focused when you're analyzing the markets and you know you're getting really into the charts um what keeps you and your mind nourished uh great question uh sleep is a big a big one uh i go to sleep at a certain time wake up at a certain time so that the circadian rhythm is in check and your body expects sleep hygiene you know yeah your body expects and your mind expects to jump into the day with with productivity to get some light and forward ambulation so to speak some sort of exercise or walking or jogging in the morning just to be fresh to tackle the day when it comes to diet i i try to eat healthily have well balanced meals when it comes to vegetables and and all the macros really carbohydrates protein fats and vegetables and so so forth so that there's a lot of fiber to and low glycemic index um foods as well so that they don't spike your sugar too much because where you you know if you have a spike in sugar from from whatever whether that's um fruit or or just highly processed foods that does wonders for your concentration in the very short term and then you you have a slump and then you crash and then you're you're not very uh productive then so it's all about having a diet that supports extended work with regular breaks of course but supports uh a work lifestyle that just uh doesn't see your your your energy levels or sugar levels behave like bitcoin's price action very in a very volatile way but i think you must have a cheat me there must be something when you think oh it's a bear market you know i'm feeling low is there something you reach for you like sod it you know it's absolutely yeah anything anything it can yeah it can be a tub of ice cream every now and then or it can be a pizza or or it can be you know whatever whatever the heart desires because i know that if i if i'm eating relatively clean throughout the week then then i can uh choose whatever i want to whatever cheat me i'd like to have over the you know friday or over the weekend got it okay well as you can see wrecked capitals twitter handle on the youtube page um get over there everyone if you're looking for some trading alpha or maybe for some pizza topping you know tips as well i'm sure rekt will might might start giving food tips as well and you also have a newsletter which is very highly subscribed um where you i hope i mean i'm gonna ask you now rekt do you have those charts that you shared today will they be part of the newsletter or the upcoming newsletter yeah absolutely so these are actually charts from my newsletters my existing newsletters i i tend to post a lot of free content on twitter but these are pretty much um all of these charts or if not a substantial majority of these charts are from the newsletter where i have the space to just you know dive deep into the bitcoin price action and understand these historically recurring tendencies and that's what i try to do in the rekt capital newsletter every monday wednesday friday i post a newsletter mondays is for this sort of analysis macro research on bitcoin wednesdays i post uh an update on bitcoin and some altcoins from a macro perspective and on fridays i post uh ta requests so you know valued members of the rekt capital newsletter can post their ta requests on what coins they'd like to see charted and i choose 10 of the most mentioned ones and chart them for the members just giving my perspective on what could happen to price for any of those select altcoins amazing well there you have it everyone this has been market talks with rekt capital um you know where to find it at rekt capital go check out the newsletter as well um in the meantime i hope everyone's staying well and healthy don't worry if you eat a tub of ice cream every now and then it's okay to feel down sometimes because the market goes down and sometimes we do too but we also feel up as well um in the meantime thank you so much for tuning in we're here every week and there's also the market report which you can check out on tuesdays at the same time uh thank you so much for tuning in remember stay humble stack sats and spend sats i've been joe hall and this has been coin telegraph