 Right welcome everybody to the live stream. So today is just the thumbnail the title suggests we're gonna take a look at a Realistic Bitcoin price prediction now I have said in the past that I am not going to do any price predictions and this isn't for me This is actually just all based on math and it makes a lot of sense. It's a very wide range I will double give you that but it's a what I think is a little bit more safer So we're gonna take a look at a realistic Bitcoin price prediction based on math And then before we do that we'll take a look at some a little bit of data on what's going on in the market Also, we'll take a look at how India just got hit with a 30% Capital gains tax and that law just went into effect well It'll go in effect April 1st But the law was passed today and lastly we'll take a look at some good news on the horizon with what government is doing And also just to remind you that we'll be doing the DCA show It's me Ben into the cryptiverse and James my best answers later today at 4 p.m. Actually, sorry 3 p.m. Eastern time 12 p.m. Pacific so I'll give you all the information on that one as I get it But first let's take a look at the market and if you're here for the live stream welcome Thanks for stopping by appreciate it if you're watching the replay time stamps underneath there You can zip forward or whatever want to do But it's all logically just to go in the nice linear manner and then also if you want to continue your education Go to Dan teachers crypto comm. It's all my best information. I have 100% free is free always will be free Let's take a peek of what's going on. So here we are Here's the market. It's a good day. It's a great day here in Puerto Rico a lot of rain going on right now So if I lose Wi-Fi connection, you know, why it's not because the government to stop me It's because it's Puerto Rico. So Bitcoin is up today Fantastically 3.4 percent almost 10% in a week. I mean look these are great numbers What's the market cap? I know we're over 2 trillion 2.1 2.1 trillion. Nice trading volume at a hundred and seven billion dollars Looks like people are looking pretty Intently at crypto and we got a 40% Bitcoin market cap excellent excellent. I like these days I mean, it's not three trillion But again take the little wins because all those little wins add up to one big win And I'll take it a theorems up three and a half percent 3200 Just talk about the merger coming up pretty pretty fast proof of work on a proof of stake That's what's driving that 2.2 for finance coin Everything's up a little bit across the board some more than others crypto.com. They're coming to America good for them So they're probably up a little bit anything big FTX token 7.4 That's what I should take a look at ETH classic Congratulations Mike the investors been talking about forever. I just I just don't see it I don't know any of it. I'll grant 8% holy smokes I I get more excited on some cryptos and others because I own them and I'm biased So just so you know so obviously you can just tell that I went out of Iran just by my high-pitched tone 12% for 3rd and I don't really care again. See there you go 12% congratulations, Thor holders So that's what we got as far as the market. It's a great day. It's a good day. I mean, I'll take the win Let's jump into what I was talking about Realistic Bitcoin price prediction. So I need to preface this Intently I've said in the past. I've done price predictions and Some came true and some didn't and I think people took some of these price predictions to heart Even though I said it's not French advice me. I can only say that so many times before it just gives just belligerent so I'm just like look Some of these price predictions didn't work out. So I'm like, I'm not giving price predictions, but I will see if we use a little bit of some math and the logarithmic Prediction we can put a very big swath of a range I think it's a little bit safe for some people and I think that is probably the way to go as far as it's saying Hey, you know a Bitcoin's going to a million in December. That's not how it works I think this is a little bit better way but first I want to take a look at a little bit of data points and to do that first of all Let's see how we are doing as far as us in the traditional market Because I think we're a little bit attached to the hip. So S&P's up. Let me refresh this. This is one day Oh shoot forget that. Hey, we're down Negative 11. Well point. This is a quarter. How are we doing five days one month six months? Okay. Hey So maybe we're becoming uncorrelated. That's great. Let me refresh this. Yeah, a little bit down Five day one month six months But you know what what's what's impressive to me finally finally Is that we're having a good day as far as Bitcoin goes and the traditional market is going is sliding down I'll take it for what it is and hopefully I didn't just jinx us but that's what we have but Let's take a look at some data points real quick. Shall we okay? So on-chain analysis, we take a look at it This is from into the block and they've got a lot of good data points one of those is exchange net flows and if You've been on the channel for a while, you know that I believe that the more times that or the amount of Bitcoin that gets taken off That's a bullish indicator. So if people have crypto on an exchange That means they usually want to sell it and if they take it off into cold storage It usually means they don't want to just hold it all hold on to it for a while Because they're not gonna they're not gonna spend it They're not gonna sell it and they want to keep it someplace safe So the net flows is the net amount of inflows minus outflows of a specific Crypto asset going in and out of centralized exchanges Over the past seven days that and that could be any time frame that could be 24 hours seven days 30 days, whatever else So this is where Data sometimes gets skewed Again, this is from into the block nice little publication they put out there And it said a bitcoin saw net outflows of nine million After 1.1 billion withdrawn the previous week. Well, that's good, right? And Ethereum recorded the largest yearly outflows with over 1.7 billion ETH leading exchanges So again more that it leaves the better is however I think we should double check On these this analysis, right? So bitcoin saw net outflows of nine million After 1.1 billion withdrawn the previous week. Well, we take a look at On-chain flows. Here's the net flows what they're talking about and it says it right there This is right from into the block Net flow show just between tokens entering and exchanging and getting going in and out And if I take a look at seven days, well In actuality There's a plus here Of 1000 bitcoin now if we take a look over seven days. Yes. See this black line here. That's the price And then see this blue line anything positive And this is all this is what's called aggregated exchanges So you could it's binance crack and coinbase jimini bitfinex who will be okay. It's the same little Okay, so just so you know and you can break it down to individual Exchanges if you want to but if we look at this In all honesty for the last seven days and it says it right there It's actually a net positive people are putting bitcoin onto The exchange is a little bit now. There's been some times and we take a look at a month We can see there's been some dips here where it goes a little bit negative and this is in the thousands But overall it's not anything that's really fenced. Let's take three months. Maybe six months There's some big dips here, but I see a lot of positivity One year. Okay. Now now we're talking. Okay. Well after a year I can see where there's a lot of dips here people taking things off But still over the time frame. I'm not too convinced of that narrative. That's okay So We take a look also at the news Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah on chain flows One second. Ah, yeah So if we take a look at the news itself What is going on? There's been some pretty positive stuff and I think news sometimes moves a little bit first of all Not news and parts partnerships, but as far as holders So There are 40 million holders right now. I don't know if you knew that I didn't know that This is the first time the number of bitcoin addresses holding bitcoin Has surpassed 40 million Bitcoin addresses holding bitcoin allow myself to introduce myself. So if we take a look here This is over a continuum from the beginning 2009 the total address is a bitcoin and we can see it's gone up pretty steadily and and one of the biggest spikes was around 2017 Remember that time? Oh, that was a good time Everybody's getting a bitcoin. It was awesome and it plummeted like a rock. I remember those days but as we can see And if we always think to ourselves like are we in the right place the right time? I think we are I think There was a little bit of a regression here at this point in 2021, but right now as it stands The total with with balance mind you is 40.21 million addresses. That is the most It has ever been in bitcoin's existence. So okay, I can see that now we're talking Also, there's been a narrative of Tara's three billion accumulation We talked about this Yesterday I think yesterday or two days ago. No, I think it was yesterday where Tara and Doquan The founder they're going to be putting a ton of money Into bitcoin to have that actually prop up not prop up but to Have it stabilized as far as bitcoin for their stable coin So I think that's good news and that's a positive what it is also Just so you know, there's a fastest growing group over the past 30 days number of addresses Holding between 1,000 and 10,000 bitcoin has grown faster than any other. That's good news I suppose however to me and we can see right here. There's been quite a big increase To me that says that there's some pretty big people with a lot of money getting into bitcoin right now Maybe that whole theory that James has been talking about as far as interest is coming in finally is here we'll see Things are going crazy today and then Hash rate, I don't care and then of course there's a another little piece of story here I thought was interesting that uh, because there's an esg issue and this is what has been talked about as far as Kevin O'Leary and all the people that are so bent out of shape because bitcoin uses so much energy I get it I understand but uh, here's some positivity although bitcoin mining is typically associated with larger carbon emissions Exxon's pilot program seems to kill two birds with one stone excess energy production results in millions of gas being burned off because of flared and Exxon It has a pilot which comp Potentially began in 2021 as per a Bloomberg report has been using part of this excess energy to mine bitcoin as opposed to flaring So that's good news, but I will tell you I covered this a year ago as far as I understand as the data that I had taken a look at It's they're not using it that much. It's not like they're using like 50 percent to to push into bitcoin I think it's like less than a percent. I could be wrong Check me in the comments, but that's what I read. So It's a step in the right direction, but we need more of that And then if also real quick If we take a look here Just for positivity. We've got the most amount of wallets. That's good. We've got as far as addresses of time held See these this green line right? Let me pull this stuff so you can see this is Cruisers are people between one and 12 month old bitcoin holders are are more than a year and traders are less than a month That's very little Well, besides 2017 But we take a look the holders that have people who hold bitcoin for more than a year In actuality It's actually grown that is highest point as well And the ones that have gone from between one and 12 months is actually decreasing and then lastly I will just say this The average time that bitcoin is held for all the wallets across everything. We just took took a look at was 3.2 years. So We take a look at positivity that could be it and then also Just real quick So, you know a theorem continues to get steam ahead of a theorem is transitioned a proof of stake because they're going from proof Work to proof of stake the ethereum merge hidden all-time high There's been an increased amount of mainstream coverage about the ethereum merge Particularly around how it will lead to each supply decreasing becomes deflationary. I believe that actually has happened Additionally, the reduced environment may happens later in April. I forgot Additionally, the reduced environmental impact coming from the transition to proof of stake has also began making news This is something I didn't think about but it makes a heck of a lot of sense Going from proof of work for all the miners and everybody doesn't like that, right? They're all up in arms. That's the whole thing with bitcoin and now we're going to proof of stake Which means we don't use near as much energy. I don't know about How safe that is but that's for the geniuses to figure out That could be a huge narrative going down. I know people like who cares who cares? Well, apparently big money cares and if we go from proof of work to proof of stake in ethereum And they're able to pull off that e2.0, which we've been waiting for forever It is really going to explode. I think ethereum is going to be huge and don't and as I let me remind you something real quick I always talk about this defi lama if you take a look at the locked up value for defi I know some people are not going to want to hear this but it is the truth and data doesn't lie Ethereum has 125 billion locked up. The next closest one is terra 26 billion next one is binance chain Which is super Centralized or whatever avalanche 10 billion selana 7 billion phantom 6 billion Clayton she's okay 1 billion near protocol almost a billion so and then you know One of my faves cardano down here at 320. So I mean look it is what it is and That I think is a pretty positive narrative for ethereum and I'm not telling you what to invest into. It's just just an opinion so Lastly holders are front-running the narrative. It appears long-term holders and anticipate this growing interest That's me and you in case you don't know An address is holding eith over a year grew their positions by over 4 million eith within weeks as prices plummet late july january, excuse me So I kind of smashed in together bitcoin and ethereum. So let's just jump into The price prediction and I will say in the next couple of days or so this from will clement a Uh, we just saw that bitcoin was going like went up pretty high 44. Let's refresh it. Let's see what it is Who would want a four dollars? Okay, 44 268. This was a a tweet from will clement a the wall of asks Bison cells just stepped up and bit for next from 45k to 40k. Look at that wall So maybe we could see a pretty good run. I don't know. I'm just a dca or so this gets to the prediction again math This is benz website. It's fantastic. I've talked about it numerous times. It's probably my fourth time Talking about it. I'm not shilling it because it's I don't have affiliate link It's just app died into the crypt over so you can find a link in the description And it's got all this great data and information that he shares and then everything that he talks about he even made a video about Which is pretty cool And there was one that I'd love to show you but ben said don't show that And it was the risk the hell of the Risk risk risk risk rick. Oh, yeah, this one called risk Hope I don't show it Ah, yeah, okay, so risk levels time and risk bands and it really is great to see how Bitcoin and In a theorem are kind of in these these these risk levels and kind of where to like maybe consider getting out and getting in And uh, it's got on chain chart. That was crazy. So this is like some I like to look at bitcoin logarithm regression bands. What this is This chart shows the bitcoin price with bubbles and non bubbles green and red Logarithm regression lines the logarithm regression lines are based on the formula y equals 10 a times ln x minus b where x the blah blah That's ben stuff. Great. Good friend smart guy smart guy and when I take a look at this you kind of As we can see things and he's charted this out all the way from the beginning And he's got to see this upper band Upper lower band. This is real prices back in 2010. That's funny 12 bucks And then is this yeah 2017 the upper band did hit 19 almost 20,000 remember that the lower band where I think and then Non bubble upper was like 2,500 Non bubble. That's where like the fair value might be actually And then non bubble fit on bubble lower And these are very conservative and then he kind of just plots it along this So when I take a look at this, I'm like the most conservative I can do And I I like this approach because it's not telling you like okay, bitcoin's it going to go to 150,000 Which is what I thought which is totally wrong If I just take a look at this and use math. Well, if I just keep going out Let me blow this up Seriously what we got This is my prediction 29 december 2022 we could be between $20,000 and 172,000 That's the prediction That's where we're at That's where it could be and the non look at the non bubble 44,000. So some people will say like Why'd you even show this to me because I want you to show me that I want you to show me going to a million rob I want you to show me going to 175,000. I can't do that And all those other predictions out there. I don't think They're cute They're adorable But they're really not good And if you take a look at the long run, just take a look at this in the long run That's just there, but who cares what if we are We just move along this continuum and we just take and say, you know what I don't know I'm not I'm not going to be rich by the end of the year. But what about in two years? What about 2024? Would it be okay if bitcoin Hit 100,000 in 2024. Would I be okay with that? Would it be all right? Or maybe it goes a little bit higher than that? I think I'd be okay In two years Where else are you going to get those types of returns? And that is the most conservative you can possibly get Where can you get that? I don't know again Financial opinion that financial advice and even Dave from cryptos or us. He had a pretty good one. He goes this is He's using this thing The bellwether curve and he talks about phoenix. He's always big on theta And he talks about this is where the percentage wise it could be Here's theta right now of 14 bucks He thinks it'd be go between 14 and 44 dollars again If you want to invest in something like that that would be An option for you to take a look at and you can also find dave's channel over at crazy for cryptos I'll link in the description as well. And then just remember this Here's my price predictions in 20 january 7 2021. Let's blow up Let me get past my enormous head And here we go Because look at these These words And everybody was talking about 150 and 10k didn't didn't happen chain link worked out actually went to 50 I had 35 cradano worked out of three. It actually hit three Theta went way above 10 Celsius. I think it went to like 9 bucks. So I missed that one stellar maybe a dollar. I'm gonna even hit that Polkadot. I think we hit that one too. So it's all big hits and misses But if you just kind of take a step back and go, you know what? What's realistic? What's realistic because you have some realistic expectations and they overexceed? I think you'll be okay. So that Is the price prediction for 2022 And it's the safest one I can possibly get based on math Let me let you think about that in the comment section. Let's finish up with some good news bad news combos Which is Poor india man, this one sucks India passes a stiff crypto tax law despite industry uproar the amendments the amendments saw by the crypto were not accommodated even though they were Shouting at the top of the lungs and the policies will go into effect april first. Here's what's going on Indians will begin paying a capital tax of 30% on crypto transactions in just a week After the nation's parliament passed a controversial tax proposal on friday In addition to the capital gains tax because that's not the worst of it Indians transacting with crypto will also have to pay a 1% tax deducted at source or tds and taxes on crypto gifts With no ability to take deductions for losses. So you can't get it to anybody You can't take any deductions for your losses. So if you lose money too bad, you're still getting taxed Oh, and also the tds every transaction is 1% so even if you lose you're still paying Tds will be in play from july 1st, but this one 30% goes into effect april 1st. Here's what the government said Steering passage of the law through the lower house of the indian parliament was finance minister nirmala sitharaman Who introduced the proposal? So if you're mad at anybody Probably directed to that individual More than 20 members of the lower house of parliament reacted strongly to the bill calling out the lack of clarity and defining crypto With several mp saying that the crypto taxes will finish the industry Sitharaman responded by saying that hey, there's no confusing signal We have been very clear that consultations are going on as to whether we want to regulate it to some extent or Really very much or totally ban it basically what she's saying is like You're lucky We didn't ban it Because we were clear We could have gone that round. We didn't do that. Here's what we did. We taxed it because we want money. You want money everybody's a winner, right? So if you take a look at like uh, like a uh Very passive aggressive way the same thing. She's pretty much like hey, we could have banned it. You're just lucky Good news bad news Witnessing no amendments and the crypto taxation policies have discouraged firms and investors from investing in the volatile market This will hamper the overall growth Of the sector by reducing mass adoption and validation said abhi agarwal ceo and founder of nft marketplace collection Attacks on certain assets indicate that those assets are recognized tradeable asset class by the regulator That gives the industry a lot more clarity and legal status of crypto And it's arrived income hence It's good news for the industry in india with respect to building a more Regulated operating environment for crypto said lenox lied director of okx. So there is some positivity two ways to look at it I don't see it as very positive, but sure whatever and here's one more way to look at it Shivam Thakral CEO of Indian exchange by ucoin was also asked optimistic saying hey The government government did the best to the knowledge that they had He explained that this is just how india operates historically things move slowly Governments stay conservative But eventually governments get the point and they start to understand And when trading volumes will start to drop Which they will then they'll get it and then they'll come back and say we don't we we're not going to tax you 30% My opinion. I think they're going to get their money I think they're happy with that. I don't care. I don't think that they really care if you've got A couple hundred billion in transactions or just a couple billion. They're still getting paid a lot of money I think they're happy there. Maybe if it drops up a lot, but I don't see it going that way So that's one end of the spectrum And on this channel, I've been talking about how I think that regulation should come So we could kind of get into and we could tell or give these institutions and go this is what's going on That's not the regulation that we want I don't people will say but that's the regulation that you're going to get maybe but here's an alternative Check this out So governments and some good news. Remember that whole proof of work ban From the eu with I was going to go through. Well, I just got shot down EU's mica bill moves forward without the bitcoin limiting provision if that would have gone through They would have banned proof of work completely not they would have banned crypto But they would have banned the miners for crypto proof of work and that could have just led a nice little slippery slope But that's going to go through without so The EU's landmark legislative package for governing crypto assets is moving on to the next stage of negotiations Without the divisive provision seeking to restrict the use of proof of work for crypto In the past few days, EU lawmakers have been negotiating a mandate for the proposed landmark four digital assets Which does not contain a provision seeking to limit Or exclude the use of proof of work crypto in the EU Before it moves on to the trilog negotiations between the parliament council and commission The provision in question was defeated in a closed committee vote on march 14th The mica trilog is set to begin next week. So it's going to move forward Into legislation and parliament But it's going to move forward without the ban on proof of work and that Gives me hope so look nd I think Overregulated EU got it right in this situation, but I'm a little biased. I must tell you Where do you think things are going to go for places like the us In canada I'm interesting by that in the comment section because that will be an interesting topic And lastly just as uh, I wanted to make make mention of just to remind everybody Uh dca will be on james's channel today. I think it's a good day to talk because uh, you know Prices up and everybody loves when prices up. So We'll be there in a couple hours So that concludes today's news one a little bit long. Sorry tried to figure it figured it all in failed But uh, that concludes today's news if you want to stick around we're going to do five questions in five minutes And uh, we'll be done with that if you have to leave take off no big deal Give me a thumbs up or a thumbs down. Tell me what's wrong. We'll try to fix it. Consider subscribing Let's jump into some q and a and every time I do q and a just so you know There's always like a little bit of a delay between when I ask for it People actually gave me the question. So We'll see what we got. That's a good one As far as energy usage the glenimal says banks use seven percent of world's electricity interesting I wonder how much they use now because I don't know if you've noticed but uh, the Regular bank traffic physical locations are shutting down more and more so and mostly everything is done online So I wonder if they're really using that much. I don't think they are but I could be wrong Thought some theta still bullish. I still own it haven't bought any more, but I still own it. I think it'll do well Richard jang. Thanks, man. Appreciate it. Uh Why so handsome? I don't Just tough to be me Look, man, I gotta tell you guys, Puerto Rico wasn't a fan when I first moved here now Love this place. It's great. And I gotta tell you it is, uh If you're looking for a place to go to and Like if you're Indian and want to get away from that nonsense as far as capital gains tax You can come to Puerto Rico. Anybody can guess how much capital gains tax are here 0.0 percent So check that out. I got a nice video. It's about 40 minutes or so, but it gives everything that you want to know Uh Shut up from EU portugal Huh Johnson's 70k by christmas. I can't say it. It's between Whatever that like 20,000 and 170,000. That's the range That's all I got Solomon Uh, you're 100 right rob. They just care about money here in India And I believe this is the gentleman who is from India by the time they come to their senses At the end of the world playing to leave India. Hey man, come do a Puerto Rico A lot of great place. Come to the meetups food's fantastic People are great. Everybody's in shape here, too That's the thing about Puerto Rico. Everybody's in shape man. Like I love Texas It's pretty big people sometimes but here everybody's in shape. Everybody looks good Great place to be make sure you want to work out So there's a question Philip says isn't the value of bitcoin not only scarcity, which it is it's not only scarce. It's finite Which is a it's a small distinction But it's a part one But also depending ability to the ease of transfer and not too hotel and that's just it That's what's great about bitcoin if you wanted to be a store of value for yourself You can and there is he's you know, you're right. You can Transfer it wherever you want to and it goes to show you like what's going on in Ukraine As the refugee situation escalates and they're trying to go over to Poland and other countries It's hard to take your entire life savings And and imagine this I mean, you're going across some very dangerous areas very easy for someone to Take whatever you have, right? So if that's the case, it's not feasible to carry 50 10 pound gold bars or whatever else or to take fiat cash out if it's even worth anything Later on but you can remember 12 words your mnemonic phrase and you can take your your value anywhere That's what I think so good question Flip mine. Thanks man. I don't know what the 10 bucks is for save it buy more buy more crypto Feel like every leader is a nut job. They're not all nuts. They're just they just uneducated I think when people educate them they then they get it not everybody but I think if A lot of people once they really get the right information Offer the races they go and they get it. I think though. It's the ones that Not only they have information but they get misinformation they get fed Disinformation and that's what leads to problems as far as like the regulators. That's just my opinion I'm an optimist though Flippin okay, there's what flippin wanted to ask. Okay. What's your thoughts on luna and us tear luna? Are you staking there also? I need to but i'm not because i'm missing out on money Uh, james did a video with luna possibly going to 80 000 on kwan's bigger word I saw the video from james did it was very interesting james always has these great models Data's data sometimes like you look at this stuff and and I think even james will admit There's a lot of things that have to come into play for 80 000 luna to to to hit and I don't think it's like the easiest thing of all time. I think Yeah, there's a lot of things have to go into the factor It's the same thing with like bitcoin going to 100 000 250 000 1 million things have to go into play before that actually happens could happen just Take it with a grain of salt. That's all I'll say Yeah, 80 k was the I know was the extreme Ah Thanks, man. The glenum. Bitcoin consumes 1113 terawatt hours Terawatt hours per year while the bank stream consumes 203 interesting interesting interesting Terawatt hours per year seems kind of I know it's it's it's the function of of the electricity output over time And how much time that actually does take place So if it's terawatt hours per year, it seems I don't have to take a look at that where's All this illegal corruption not everybody Just don't see I'm doubtful. That's funny. That actually is pretty funny Yeah, that's a good point It's a really good point. I wish the press would talk about Ukraine's use of crypto other than the rush's alleged use yeah I'd love to see that on like any of the big news channels Uh, I think I think I did my job today because I have no questions. This is fantastic Oh, here's one. That's a good one Uh, when you move crypto to voyager or Celsius is that classified as moving crypto off an exchange regarding stats you talk about? The thing is No, because when you put it into see voyager is is a broker So those They have their own wallets, but as far as them being like a brokerage They are connected to different various exchanges, which no nobody really can nail down exactly which ones they are I have my thoughts about which ones they are, but that is Uh, that you're not moving them off an exchange. Uh, so that wouldn't actually count Uh, hey Rob, how about XRP? Um Should do well once they win the case I'm sure I've got a pretty good feeling that they're going to win the case But again, that's just a feeling and you can't take a feeling to the bank. Can you so I feel it might do well. I feel it might actually win, but no one knows And that's it. All right guys, we've gone 34 minutes. That's way too long. It's friday Enjoy the weekend. It's going to be a great one. I feel it. I feel it and uh Hopefully it's good. So look thanks for sticking around. I appreciate if you like today's video Give it a thumbs up thumbs down Give it just let me know why in the comment section also consider subscribing I'll always talk about our very time sensitive set that's your stuff like this and that's it for today So thanks so much for watching. I appreciate it and I will see you on the next one