 Good day fellow investors! Now, I haven't really discussed bonds yet on this channel. However, it is extremely important to watch what's going on with interest rates and treasury yields. If you have a treasury that yields 4% and you have a stock that has an earnings yield of 4%, you will choose the treasury, because that's a sure thing, practically a risk class. So, the stock should yield 6-7% in order to give a premium on the risk of owning stocks. If a stock goes from 4% to 6-7-8%, then the stock price drops 50%. So, it's extremely important to see what bonds are doing in order to see what stocks will be valued at in the future. And if you look at the 10-year treasury rate, we can see that interest rates almost doubled in the second part of 2016, but since the beginning of 2017, despite the Fed's increased interest rates, treasury yields have declined from 2.6 to the current 2.2 to 2.1. This means, A, the market doesn't believe the Fed. They don't see future tightening. And we'll see what happens in this week's meeting. So, they don't see future long-term tightening. They don't think the Fed can raise interest rates because inflation is not growing. And this tells a very important story. If we look at the Fed's economic targets and projections, they want GDP at 2%, unemployment rate around 5% and inflation at 2%. The problem is that inflation almost reached 2% at the beginning of 2017, but then, as the Fed's increased interest rates dropped to the current 1.64. This will make the Fed think twice about raising interest rates. Lower interest rates are good for bond investors, as bond values go up and also for stock investors. So, the market doesn't believe the Fed will increase interest rates. And what's going on can lead us to the following conclusions. First, we will see negative interest rates in the next recession. The Fed has on average lower interest rates by 5.5 percentage points in best recessions. If we are now at 1.5% and the Fed lowers for 5.5 percentage points, we are at minus 4. Negative interest rates have been unbelievable, but we still have them in Japan, Switzerland and so on. So, perhaps also minus 4 will be a potential interest rate in the future. Who knows. So, given what the market is feeling, given that we are already 8 years in the cycle, we must acknowledge that higher interest rates might be elusive for a longer period of time. This means that stocks can remain higher for a longer period of time. If earnings stay stable, if a recession hits us, interest rates remain low but earnings deteriorate, then we are in trouble, then we will have stagflation and that is an environment very very difficult to get out from. So, the Fed is keeping things as is artificially. By keeping interest rates low, if the Fed would put now interest rates 5-6% as it should be in a normal economic environment, we would see a recession today, not tomorrow. So, that's why the Fed is trying to postpone anything negative that can happen and usually when such a power postpones, it means that the crisis, the next crisis, will just be bigger, bigger and bigger. I'm seeing a huge inflation because negative interest rates so much money, so there will be inflation and low or negative economic growth. I really fear stagflation. I will discuss it in a special video, how to protect yourself from stagflation. And the short-term consequence is that the bet on higher interest rates should be closed. Last year, I was an interest rates bull, thus a bond beer, so now you should really think about hedging by owning more treasuries as those can go up if interest rates go down. So, really, I think there is an equal probability that interest rates go up and down at this point in time. So, be hedged. Just to conclude, we can see that the total public debt GDP in the US has been surging since the 1980s. This means that economic growth that we are enjoying now in developed countries, the same thing goes on in Europe, in Japan, is only thanks to debt, not to increases in productivity. Gold prices have also been increasing this year, so again, the market is starting to prepare itself for financial turmoil. You should do the same. To conclude, nobody knows what will the financial world look like in five years. The only thing we can do is prepare for everything. So, please watch my old weather portfolio. Start thinking in protection. Start thinking in achieving some kind of return at low risk. Going bluntly into the market, following the trends, I think at this moment in time, is very, very risky. Thank you for watching. Click like if you like the content and I'll see you in the next video.