 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Morning Market Kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good morning, everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN Monday morning, 8.30 AM, 60 minutes to go until the opening bell. And we got markets and positive territory to kick things off. Right now you're looking at the Dow futures up 125 points, 26,447 S&Ps, positive by almost 19 points, trading at 32,222 Nasdaq futures. How about it? Positive territory, up more than 100 points, 105 points, 10,564. We got to jump right to it. How about that gold contract? New all-time highs this morning, 1,940, 190. We've backed off almost $9 from that high. But talk about an acceleration. You put gold on a monthly chart. We're looking at the futures, previous high, dating back to, pretty remarkable when you say it, 2011. On this chart, 19,2370, it varies a little bit depending on how you're looking, continuous contract or nonetheless, either way, above those numbers, gold. New all-time highs, quite the cup formation. And look at this acceleration we've got. Even if you back it up to where we were, September of 2018, as you're talking about almost two years ago, you look at the flash low we had on COVID to $1450. We're up almost $500 from that price point. Price of gold trading at 1,930,170 this morning. All right, silver contract catching a bit as well, a little bit of a different story on silver though. Look where we were in 2011, $50. You hung out there for a couple years, silver though, really breaking above. You look to where we were in 2013. The high in silver 25, 16, we're within about a dollar of that level, actually reached a high of 24, 82 this morning in silver. All right, in terms of what else we have going on, big day in terms of the start of a phase three study. So the world's biggest COVID-19 vaccine study got underway Monday with the first of 30,000 planned volunteers helping to test shots created by the US government, developed by the National Institute of Health with Moderna. So they're looking for 30,000 participants. That's a phase three. They're gonna give people the vaccine, give people the placebo, see how things go. Also on the Moderna front, they got a further $472 million US award for the coronavirus vaccine development. We talked about the phase three, we talked about the money. So in April, Moderna had received $483 million from the US federal agency when the experimental vaccine was in the early stages encouraged by the phase one. We believe the vaccine may aid. So they're up in the ante there. Now about $955 million they've gotten as they begin those human trials on that phase three. All right, we're gonna jump right into earnings season, huge week of earnings, durable goods popping up as we speak, but check out all this. So we've got roughly a third of the S&P 500 and 12 Dow components scheduled to report earnings this week from big tech to big oil. Check out all these names folks. Already this morning we got Albertans, we got SAP, we'll jump over to those two in a moment. You got Hasbro earnings out this morning as well, again, we'll jump over. That's the next article we're gonna talk about. Check out tomorrow, 3M, Visa, Raytheon, Pfizer have been in the news a lot, McDonald's as well. Wednesday, Facebook, Boeing, GMGE, Qualcomm just to name a few and then Thursday the main course. We get Apple, Amazon and Alphabet, Apple, Amazon and Alphabet, three of the biggest companies in the world. We get some oil on Friday, Exxon, Chevron, Merck, Colgate, Palm Olive and Caterpillar. They represent almost, so these stocks we're talking about time back, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet represent almost 13% of the entire market capitalization of the S&P 500. It's remind me, yeah. So and you combine the three of them, we're talking about $4 trillion, 13% of basically the entire market. They all report on Thursday, should be a big day, let's just jump over to some of those stocks to check them out this morning. So Amazon, wow, that's quite the chart on the monthly. Let's put this a little bit shorter time frame. We're back above 3,000 comfortably at 3,060 this morning for Amazon shares so far. We get Alphabet, Google, 1524 from 1511 and what I say, Amazon, Apple of course. Apple shares back to 374, talk about some volatility last week, right? You're almost at 400, you shaved $42 off the price from Tuesday morning to Friday morning. We are now approximately, we're approaching almost $20 off of Friday's low at 374 right now for Apple. All right, we talked about some earnings this morning, SAP out with their numbers, trading higher, we'll pull them up in a moment. ACI, is that Albertsons? Yes it is, Albertsons, there's their numbers, up a bit to 1679. Now lower to 1587, we'll jump over to the numbers in a moment. And Hasbro, lower this morning down to 68 from almost 78, currently trading at 7230. We'll jump over to those numbers, we'll start it off with Hasbro revenue falling 29% as store closures, product shortages, heard sales, shares fall. So the number, second quarter earnings, $0.02 a share on $860 million in revenue. The market was looking for $0.23 on $992 million, quite a miss there. Strong demand for its products between April and June, whoops, I slid down there, there we go. Strong demand for its April and June, the company face challenges globally, of course. We believe the outlook improves from here, the CEO said, still nonetheless, Hasbro shares lower this morning. Jumping back to other stocks, we talked about Albertsons, $1.35 a share for the fiscal first quarter, $0.05 above estimates, revenue in line helped by a 26.5% jump in comp store and digital sales, that's quite a number, I think we're all familiar, grocery store, one of the more crowded places, during everything going on here, Albertsons trade a little bit higher on their numbers. I mentioned SAP, SAP, they're also gonna spin off Qualtrics through an IPO less than two years after it bought the US based company for $8 billion, so that hit the stock as well this morning. So yeah, all right, jumping into other stocks up here, we'll scroll back up to the top. Okay, so we talked about Moderna, right, two different deals going on, whether it's the government assistance, phase three study, how about Biogen, getting double upgraded to overweight from underweight at Morgan Stanley, based in large part on prospects for the success of Biogen's Alzheimer's drug, Attica Numab, shame on me for not getting that one, I don't think, but Biogen trading higher this morning to 280 from about 270, you put it on some context, kind of like hanging down, I mean, we're gonna open at 280, but still been struggling, I mean, look at this acceleration that we had up to 375 initially for Biogen in your back, kind of in this area between call it maybe 260 and 280, and we're gonna open right at the upper end of that range at 280 on Biogen this morning. All right, Johnson and Johnson said proposed IRS regulations involving opioid settlement might materially impact its results. The company said those regulations could limit the tax deductibility of settlement payments. What a bummer that they're not gonna get to write off all these settlements that they are in. No, I kid, right, but pretty remarkable, Johnson and Johnson, we're gonna open basically flat this morning, there's your action on Johnson and Johnson, hire a bit with the market as you get the S&Ps right now up about 14 points. All right, checking in on the VIX as we round out this first segment, VIX 2613, right now we saw the spike early Friday at 2858, something to keep in mind folks, anytime this VIX creeps back down, that's of course your COVID spike to 85, some of these lows though, you tie it back to early June, low of 2354, July 6th, 2492, and we made it within about five, six pennies, 2361 and 2360 last week. Stay tuned folks, we'll be right back in three minutes. Many of our new listeners have heard about the Tiger's Den. 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Back folks, right now S&P is positive by 14. The Dow positive right now by 82. I got a chart of the dollar index up here. So quite the trend continuing folks. Dollar lower, I'll pull up some of the currencies in a moment just in terms of the pairing. But there's your chart over the six months. You see the initial spike on COVID. That high correlating basically right to the lows, March 20th, my birthday, why not? Highs in the dollar, we're up to 103, call it almost 102.99, right? So that is on March 20th. By the span of March 22nd, you came from almost 103 down to almost 98. We consolidate for a bit. This lower end starts on May 18th. You're above 100. You go to 96. You could call that maybe an A to B leg. You got a $4.50 almost from 150 down to 96. You get back to a high of, where are we? On June 30th, we're looking at a high of almost 98. That brings us almost A to B CDD of basically 93.50, give or change. Now you put this on some context folks, where we could go. Look at that volatility, let's see the five year even and there you go. Back enough to 2018, you're talking about 88, somewhere give or take, 88.25. The potential, I mean, we are in no man's land. Tom's talked about it many times on his program, on our program. Where are we on this level? We're right there. You're talking about a low of 93.81 and 93.84, yeah. So below both of those levels, this chart showing in terms of early September of 2018. Now looking at potential, lower prices across the board and I'm just going to pull up. Pull up here, pull up some forex charts because some of these trends folks on FX, let's pull off. We'll start it with the yen, okay? So quite the volatility here on the yen, we go to 101.79. We're now down to 105.42 and that is from 107.22 and talk about acceleration on the euro as well. Come on, euro US dollar. Look at this run we've had recently folks. From May 18th, I just walked you through on the dollar. We're from 108, now approaching 118, just huge moves. Now back to the market in terms of talking about gold and how that relates to it, jump into the gold contract. This acceleration, gold, the low. We just talked about it, right? What was the high in the dollar? First 20th, now you might call, I think it was 1450, what did we get to on the 20th? 1457, okay? Right next to it. But since that high in the dollar, 1457, the low in gold, we're now sitting at 1927. Just huge moves, huge moves in a big way. The 10-year yield, sitting at about 0.58% right now, the yield. We'll jump to the note and bond market, this interesting as well. Now sitting at 139.22. These prices, very important folks. We're talking about the recent highs we had, 139.22 on April 21st, 139.21 on May 15th. You don't get back to that level. Late July, we're talking about highs there about 139.13 and 139.14. You do make it to 139.225 on July 10th. But what I want to showcase is we are right at those levels, 139.22 right now. Look at those numbers, right? Right up at the upper end, a yield of 0.58%, anytime we've come up here, you have kind of jumped down to the lower end of that range in terms of 138.12 for price that would push yields back above 0.6%, but right now critical levels with the S&P holding up so well, you're looking at yields rising as well to 139.22, pay attention to those yields folks. We got Fed action this week as well. So should be interesting, shaking out. Okay, in terms of what else going on, politics going to be front and center as you have the battle on for fiscal stimulus and what shape it's going to come in. You had Republicans out over the weekend on Sunday, whether it was Kudlow, Mnuchin, talking about the GOP's version of the Coronavirus Relief Plan, ready as unemployment boost runs out. We can move quickly, Mnuchin says. So the real battle here is that what is that going to come in? Now we have another round of $1,200 stimulus checks talking about Mnuchin said on Sunday, he hopes Congress can work in a bipartisan manner. Well, don't we all? To approve the GOP proposal, there's the key for Mnuchin, which is expected to have another round of $1,200 stimulus checks. And they're looking at potential 70% wage replacement for individuals instead of the $600 boost in weekly benefits for all recipients. That benefit which is key component of the two point true, that benefit basically expiring last weekend which was a key component of course of the CARES Act. The 70% wage replacement idea? Not a bad idea in theory. As more analysts are weighing in, it seems like that is going to be logistically a very difficult thing to achieve when you're talking about tens of millions of Americans and what rate they are eligible for when you need to calculate that number for tens of millions of people on wage replacement. Whether that's possible, that's turning into a little bit of a debate. The key here folks is that you can't just have the delays. People are going to have bills that are due yesterday. And so if you have problems figuring out that number and the catchphrase is don't worry, you can always get them back pay. You're eligible for unemployment backed to the date that you file even if there's a backlog or a delay. But that's going to come to roost. This is exceptional times. Now you may see a moratorium for evictions in here as well for an extension which would help that. But hopefully they get something done because that expired Friday. It's kind of now. And you heard McConnell out there saying we'll get it done the next few weeks. The urgency doesn't seem to be apparent, but the market nonetheless, we'll see what happens. All right, jumping over to some of the COVID numbers because I just wanted to bring up some of the numbers. And I talked about this. I'm going to put out a report later this morning for subscribers of rocket equities and options. I encourage you to check it on the front page. I'll go over that deal in a moment. This is the last week to get in as a charter member. You can lock in $48.50, which is a 50% savings of the $97 usual rate. Florida numbers, so I'll jump around a bit. But I had some of this going on in the report. These numbers as of yesterday's recent, so they come out on the 26th as of recent of the day prior. What you're looking at here is that a little bit encouraging data, right? Positivity rate, the one you're looking at is the one down here. This is first time test, okay? This number up here, that's talking about people who are tested multiple times. If you do test positive, many times you're testing multiple times, many days in a row to make sure you understand when you are not testing positive, then you can go around people. This is the number to pay attention to. You are definitely a decreasing trend in terms of positivity, still above 11%. But we were dealing with in early July, and the number is ticked off. We had 18% somewhere in here in early July, 15, 13, 13, 12, 11, 11, 14, 13. We're now approaching 10, 12, 13, 11, 11. Lowering trends there, median age at 41, still dealing with almost 10,000 cases a day, but that number decreasing as well. I'm gonna jump over for a second to show that one up. Let me just pull it up, where am I? There I am, and jumping to, so first we're gonna go over the country, okay? Now this is New York Times, the numbers varying in many places in terms of the exact details, but in general, you should get a general idea. And for the first time we're flattening, now the worrisome thing here is we're flattening folks at 66,000 cases a day, all right? That needs to decrease. But, and I'm gonna finish this up when we get back from the break, because there's a few things here. When you look at some of the states, I mean, Florida, for the first time, you could say encouraging. Now, I want this number under 10,000, but that curve decreasing. We're down from 11,800 for the seven day average on July 17th to now a seven day average of 10,544. Deaths still rising as that usually lags. Stay tuned folks, we'll finish up this discussion in three minutes. I'll be right back to go over the other information. Back in the day, I joined the Hotel California in 2006. And like many of you, was drawn in by bam, as well as Whatever you think about, you bring about whatever you focus on grows. You see, I believe that everything in life happens for us, not to us. And Tom ignited the fire within me to want to learn how to master the markets. So how did I go from knowing nothing about technical analysis to becoming the number one market timer for the S&P 500 in 2018 and the number two market timer in 2019? 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So as I mentioned, the curve for the U.S. flatted about 65,000 cases when you get into some of the states. So the states actually, whether it's staying the same, the times we classify it as, now they go by 14 days, okay? But when you jump to some of these states, it's some of the hardest hit states just recently. I'm talking about Florida, South Carolina, right? You see the curve escalating and then peaking down as in downward trends, Texas as well. You had, now the key here though is that these states are decreasing but you're seeing some rapid increases in order for the daily cases to stay at 65,000. I mean, Mississippi, Alabama, Nevada, you could argue in the last few days, ticking down. California, one of the state's largest population in the state, still rising in a big way at over 10,000 cases a day. But just in Florida, speaking personally, because I live here, encouraging data, you're gonna see volatility, but mask mandates just coming to be, whether it's Walmart, Target, Publix, hopefully having an impact and hopefully that sustains. Now, on the front page of TFNN folks, this is the final week. I'm gonna put out my report, my weekly report, coming up basically in the next hour. That'll go out to subscribers. This report that I put together folks, I have a long-term equities portion talking about building a portfolio, whether it's for just a long-term investor, retirement, IRA, 401K, also looking at swing trades and option trades right now you can subscribe. You select the monthly rate, you add the promo code ROCKET for rocket, add that code and you'll see the savings reflected. Give it a try, folks. Comes with a 30-day money-back guarantee. Like I said, weekly reports, usually daily updates as well. Check that out as that runs through July only. And also, what do we have coming up? We got our man, Basil Chapman. He's gonna be filling in for Larry Pezzavento. And folks, if you haven't checked it out, Basil just did a great webinar for his subscribers last week. You can sign up for the opening call. You got 10 minutes till Basil's live. You can sign up for the opening call. You gain access to that archive web. You can link that also to the 30-day money-back guarantee. Check them both out on the print page and stay tuned for our man, Basil Chapman, coming up. Big week earnings this week, folks. Stay tuned. Live programming all day at TF9. We'll be right back.