 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning market's kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN just after 9 a.m. Eastern time Tuesday morning. We got about 24 minutes to go until the start of trading and you got markets picking things up. Pretty calm territory, mixed action right now with the S&Ps. That was the spy. We'll go back to the S&Ps. Trading just off the overnight highs. We were up to a high right near the tick of the high intraday yesterday. What were we exactly? Let's get it. 45.92.50. Talking about within about 15 points of recent highs, which are about 46.08, 46.09. Let's get it on the chart. 46.09.25 from less than a week ago. We're trading right now flat in the S&Ps. NASDAQ 100, we're up by 40 points. Trading at 15,600 on the dot. We got Microsoft and Google after the bell today. We got Dow off 21 points right now, 35,560. Excuse me as we jump around. And you jump to the Russell 2000, negative by four points right now. 1973, we jump over to Crude. Crude contract trading at 78.38. You're off 36.20s. We were almost up to $80 yesterday, 79.28. Gold contract off $3.00, a little bit of volatility on gold this morning. Check out the action, right? From 1965 to 1954 to 1965, and we're back in the middle of the action at 1959 in gold. Silver up 22 pennies at 24.80 right now. We jump over to the dollar index. Higher action, 101.48 in the dollar. We put that on a daily for some context there. Getting back a lot of that deceleration. Remember, we've got 99 handled just like that. We're aiming towards 102. We got a little bit of dollar strength. And we have a little bit of weakness in rates. Interesting action coming into Fed Day tomorrow. Lower price, higher yield right now. I'm jumping over to that yields. We're talking about a yield of 3.91%. Quite the acceleration, man. Chopping around on these 10 years. You back it up to where we were yesterday on my program. Almost a full point from where we are right now, right? Remarkable, there's about 9.30 on the chart. We're at 112.15. We trade lower throughout the day and we're lower again this morning. We're off by 15 ticks and we got yields at almost 3.92%, the yield on the 10 year. Volatility, persisting to say the least. Let's jump around to some of those fang stocks. As we get the NASDAQ 100 in positive territory, Apple up about 75 cents to kick things off. You got Microsoft up a bit, up $3. Not bad, man. Look at these stocks, man. Remarkable, you jump over to Google shares. Google shares up about 50 cents right now as well. Meta with their numbers tomorrow. Trading higher by a few dollars to 295. We jump over to Tesla shares. Tesla up a couple dollars to 271. And why not? It's a private company but let's kick it off. Why not? Twitter, they're dumping the Twitter logo and they're going to X. Now what's so interesting here is he tried to do this with PayPal a while back and I'm gonna find. There's gonna be a lot of stuff that happens with this, man. It's a private company. I say it's the greatest reality TV show going on. Cost Elon $44 billion for the production rights to it at the get go. He's got big plans in terms of wanting to make this the app of everything. That's probably how we spun the investors to spend upwards of almost $50 billion on a company. You wanna get some multiples on your investment, right? He wants to make it the app of everything. He wants to build a FinTech services app on top of a social media platform app and they have already started to do this. I saw last night, they got the X logo. Do they have it? There it is. Twitter was acquired by XCorp both to ensure freedom of speech and as an accelerant for X the everything app. So Twitter has technically been acquired by X. That's the logo, man. I saw it. They had it out last night on some of the things that were going on. There's the CEO talking about it as well. Now, I saw one tweet out there saying that Facebook meta owns X for the use in social networking. Microsoft could own the train mark for X for use in finance and e-commerce but he tried to do this at PayPal. Let me see if I can find the link right now. He tried to do this at PayPal. I think this is it, is it? Perfect, here it is. And so what he did when he was at PayPal, okay? This tweet here is from Max Jaffkin. He had wrote a book about this, okay? And he tried to make PayPal X PayPal and phase out PayPal. This is when Peter Thiel was already out of the company and this is at a time when they were a startup and they somehow had got the name of the company to be used as a verb, right? You say, I'm gonna PayPal somebody the money. Remarkable achievement. He wanted to name it to X PayPal. And the group that Thiel had hired of programmers thought it was insane. Sellers on eBow were already using the company's name, PayPal the Money. X had conducted a series of focus groups showing the customers just like the brand name because it reminded them of porn. This was written previously, okay? So he's on a kick man. He wants the app of everything. He wants to call it X and that's how he probably pitched those investors and we're gonna see to get it to see it play out in real time. The other side of that is that I just saw something talking about the brand value loss. Is this it? Yeah, here it is. All right, I gotta pull up this article. This is a tweet from Bloomberg Technology talking about the most decision to turn Twitter to X wiped on anywhere between $4 billion and $20 billion in value according to analysts and brand agencies. Twitter's gone, X is here, the bird is gone and we're getting to see it all play out in real time. Pretty fascinating, nonetheless. All right, what else we got going on? Let's jump back to the market. Let's talk a little bit of China to kick things off because this one interesting as well. Boy, do not get out of line in China. China replaces their foreign minister after mysterious absence. He had been gone since June but he was one of she's strongest supporters there and he removed Quingang, maybe I pronounced that correctly as foreign minister just seven months into the job, shortest ever tenure for the role after the diplomat was seriously disappeared from public view. So there was a lot of talk when he got this position that he was younger than some of the diplomats that have been over there, maybe not as seasoned with the resume that some have a little bit older than himself. But yeah, he's out just like that. Just looking for his agent here. I was pretty sure they had it somewhere. I was reading this early this morning. Yeah, and they talked about it in one instance. Maybe it was a different article I was reading it on. Boy, this guy, you talk about detailed. He would show up. They had the Belarus visit at one point. Okay, I'll find the article I was talking about. They had a visit where Xi was visiting Belarus and this guy that just got let go, right? Sh, made a call at two in the morning to one of the officials in Belarus demanded to show up at the museum that Xi was gonna be at the next day, right at 2 a.m. Walked through every single detail that Xi was gonna go through at that museum in Belarus and even made sure to perfect the details of when music would start playing on exactly what stare would start playing as Xi is coming up those stairs. So he enjoyed this position, but he probably stepped out of line, they were saying it may have been something in his personal life. Could have been an affair. That's what they said. Amazing how many successful people fall on those affairs. He could have been in line to replace Xi. Think about that, man. Yeah, so he's gone. China, that's how they run business. Interesting, nonetheless over China as Xi. And he was Xi's guy. He'll take a little bit of a hit, they said, but Xi's got too much power to be heard in any way by that. Markets, folks. Negative two on the SMPs. NASDAQ positive by 32. We got yields going higher one day ahead of a Fed decision. Stay tuned, folks. We'll come back, talking to our man, Kevin Hicks from TD Ameritrade Network. Fast Market, we'll be right back. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them, using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. 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TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, the Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tigerses for just $1 for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Folks, we got mixed market this morning. S&P is negative by two right now, trading at 45.81. You get the NASDAQ 100 in positive territory by 35 points. We get some action with some earnings tonight. One day ahead of a Fed decision tomorrow to talk about some of the action, let's jump over to our man, Kevin Hinks. Every trading day, folks, 12 noon Eastern time, fast market from the TD Ameritrade Network right here on Tiger TV with your host, Kevin Hinks, Tom White. Check it out every trading day. We got quite a week of earnings and it's Fed Weeks as well. Kevin Hinks, good morning. Good morning, Tommy. Yeah, it's gonna be a good one today. A lot of expectations going into the end of the day and I wanna warn your viewers that even though we look at Google Alphabet, even though we look at Microsoft and all the good things they have going on with AI and all the hype around AI, both of these companies have some question marks going into earnings. You know that AI is gonna be on the top of everyone's mind and they're gonna talk a lot about it. But Microsoft has got, think about the weakness in PCs lately and what that means for Microsoft Windows. Think about the accelerating growth in Azure and cloud. And so they've got some things they have to answer to in terms of Google Alphabet. This is about clouds, credit and friends and growth and they need, this is gonna be a real look. Oh, it's a digital edge. I mean, when you think about how much in YouTube that they were like a digital edge, they need that trend to bottom in. They still have some big question marks going into their earnings. So it's gonna be interesting for sure, Tommy. I was walking through some of those charts. I appreciate the breakdown, man. Giving us a little bit of sanity, Kevin, because I think these stocks just go straight up. I thought that's what I heard. Pretty remarkable. I'll jump over to Microsoft and I kid, of course. Microsoft trading right now in the Thinkorswim platform, 345 bucks, Kevin. It's got 7.435 billion shares. We'll round up to 7.5 billion shares and this thing has gone from $220 up to 345. That's $125 of run for a stock that's got 7.5 billion shares outstanding. You mentioned some of the negatives. We talked about the optimism for Netflix and Tesla shares out here. NASDAQ 100, we got a little bit of a rebalancing, Kevin, but all the markets pretty close to those all-time highs when you especially look at the S&P and the NASDAQ 100, I'm asking you some forward questions, but you talked about these stocks, they're gonna determine so much of where this market goes. Do you look at those all-time highs, Kevin, as somewhere that the market might want to go? Do you think we're approaching some levels? Yields have risen again as we come into Fed Day tomorrow. Do you have a one-way market bias right now, I guess, is the question? Because, boy, you laid out a great case, man, with what some of these companies are dealing with, even with the run we've had, Kevin, and we're still expecting a hike tomorrow, 16 months into a hiking cycle. How do you see this market, as we're so close to these all-time highs? Pretty remarkable, only 20 months after the bear market began. Like things like, you know, this movement, right? They, usually, everything in the kitchen, then all their payoffs that they're gonna do, stocks up three bucks, pre-market, right? If the market perceives that the Fed is done, I'm gonna rate it. And so we'll lead stocks to be happy and a lot of good things to happen. So that's one look at the overall economy. I think some of the price activity yesterday, Tommy, did you notice the dollar was up, gold was down, but if you look, crude oil, copper, Tesla, Las Vegas Sands were in resorts, all things connected to China were very strong at its rate. So if China is finally starting to re-emerge from opening, that could be another catalyst. You already see it, you already see it. I mean, it got downgraded, your scale was up big. It's up again, this move. I don't sleep on the China reopening because you see it in crude oil. You see it in copper. And so we're watching that post. So today, I think this afternoon, by Microsoft, Google else, most Microsoft though, Frank. And with that in mind, Kevin, you mentioned it. I think I got two equities you may be talking about, but what is the lineup coming up on fast market at 12 today, man? Yeah, you know, Google, I'll bet Microsoft will be the first and third segments in the middle. Like fully, we'll do a presentation on Visa, which also has earnings. We'll get a first really good look at the US consumer in Visa. How many swipes they're going through. So yeah, we'll look at the three names that he picked show today. The credit card industry seems to be alive and well. Visa, 240, man, quite a chart for them as well. Kevin, I appreciate the time on a busy morning, man. We'll be watching fast market at 12 today and we'll talk to you tomorrow on Fed Day, man. Have a great time. You too, folks, check it out. Every trading day, 12 noon Eastern time, right here on Tiger TV, very fortunate to have that program. Kevin Hicks, man, I've learned so much over my years. I know I'm biased. I know they're a sponsor, folks. I tell my family, I tell my friends though, check out the program. You can learn so much, watching them walk you through hypothetical trade setups. As Kevin mentioned, we're talking about Microsoft and Google with their numbers tonight. Could the expectations be higher, right? Kevin laid out a great case, man. There is a lot that these companies are gonna have to deal with. I mean, you look at the likes of Google. Google's about to lose a monopoly, man, okay? They're about to lose a monopoly, and they just traded up 33% from where it was at the beginning of the year, right? Think about that. Absolutely remarkable how these companies have rebounded. Now, Google is still $30 off of where it was trading at in the highs, versus companies like Microsoft that are making new highs, okay, so that is factored in. To say the least, Apple, of course, making new highs, right? Crushing it, Apple next week, August 3rd, I believe with their numbers. But yeah, expectations sky high. Kevin laid it out. Computers, everybody bought the computers they needed during the pandemic, and maybe the years that followed. Not so much right now, probably loaded up. Everybody's probably got a computer that needed one over the last couple of years. Maybe it's people coming to age, or you gotta refresh that, but a little bit of a lull in what's going on. Yeah, I always say, if I could buy YouTube folks, multiples are everything. Okay, because multiples are getting a little crazy right now with some of this. But YouTube, there is nothing like YouTube right now, in terms of content, in my opinion. Netflix is a powerhouse, they're always gonna be a powerhouse. But I'm telling you, man, it's pretty remarkable how, I'll give you an example. In my household, okay, number one, we got myself. We stream TFNN on YouTube, okay? Every video we do, folks, we stream it to our YouTube channel. We archive those shows. You can subscribe to our YouTube channel for free. You get notifications when we go live. All the videos we do are right there available for you. All the interviews are segmented out, right there on our YouTube channel, okay? Then you have the kids in the house. So you got a 17-year-old, they love YouTube, man. You got a six-year-old, loves YouTube, watches Minecraft on YouTube. And then you got even Tommy, who likes with his tablet time. And folks, you gotta keep the tablet time at check. And there can be good tablet time and bad tablet time, okay? And the one thing I will say is, if you got kids, don't let them go down the YouTube rabbit hole without making sure you're watching what they're watching. Okay, there's plenty of good programs you can watch on there. And there's plenty of crap that they can somehow end up pulling up if you're not watching it closely. But everybody loves YouTube, man. Everybody loves YouTube. And I look at it, we take Tommy to go get a haircut. We bring him to a haircut place that's made for kids. They have chairs that look like planes. They have TVs up there that are showing whatever you want. What do they do? They all watch YouTube. Yeah, because of course you do, right? It's free, folks. Anyway, we'll come back. We got Google, we got Microsoft. We'll take a look at those. We'll take a look at some other equities. We'll be back for the open, folks. Stay tuned. I think it's too volatile and risky. Most people aren't going to take the time to educate themselves on how to do it right. But you're not most people, are you? At TFNN, you'll get the guidance you need to refine your strategies and techniques to invest like a pro. Because you'll be a pro. All TFNN subscriptions, books, software and courses are available at TFNN.com. And I'm even going to tell you how to get them for less. Use TFNN's Tiger Dollars and you'll get up to a 20% bonus on your purchase. 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TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern. For free, each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN. Educating investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. Welcome back, folks. I know we had a few tech issues with Kevin. We'll get it squared away before we get it back on there tomorrow. But yeah, he sounded a little bearish in his chat with my dad during the break, which is a bummer that we had a tough connection today because he's always got so much good information but check out the program Fast Market at 12 o'clock. As they always kick things off with the first session, kind of talking about market action, just the way Kevin and I have a conversation about what we're thinking about about today's activities, et cetera. And as they mentioned, though, they're talking about Microsoft and Google in the first and third segment. They'll be talking about Visa in the second segment. And yeah, these things have been on a tear, man. You jump over to Visa. Anytime you have a stock like Visa, right? You're almost looking at a dividend play equity, much less volatility priced into an earnings event, okay? You jump over and if you're looking for action through Friday, you're looking at about a $7.57 cent move. If you're just looking for action for their numbers, which I believe are tonight, they sure are, they're tonight, as Kevin mentioned, $7.31 cents priced in for the earnings event happening tonight, about an $8 move priced in for options expiring on Friday. But as you see, what is that? About less than a 3% move priced into Visa after their bell tonight. You compare that to a company like Microsoft, MSFT, excuse me. And you have more than a 5% move priced in for Microsoft, $18, just for action through tonight, okay? Almost a $20 move if you wanna buy options to expire on Friday for a $346 stock. You jump over to Google. Google shares out with their numbers tonight as well. $7.24 cent move for the week. That's quite a move, man, five, six, seven percent, something like that. Now, Metta, they got their numbers tomorrow, okay? Now, there's a move for you. You're paying almost 10% to get in July 28th on those numbers from Metta. You talk about expectations, man. Now, boy, I always think of our man, Bud Ralfs, when I've seen these channel lines, we got one break back in April and we jumped right past that on earnings. It'd be interesting to see what happens with this earnings because look, Facebook's been on a tear, man. And they've been on that tear since the beginning of the year, okay? But things really started to get crazy back in November. And then we've got two big gaps on their last earnings. Okay, so they're gonna have expectations sky high because if you think about it, we've doubled in price since that earnings event just six months ago. And that's not cherry picking the lows of the year 150 and that's not cherry picking the lows of November from Metta. That's saying, where were they when they came into that earnings event six months ago? They were at 150. You had already went from 90 to 150 and you still gap-tired almost 200. Remember that day? Then you gap-tired on the next one. Now we come into earnings at about 300. Well, that's a different story, man. You jump over to the Analyze tab, you jump to the Fundamentals tab under that. You're talking about a company that's now valued at $761 billion. This company was at like $220 billion, or something like that, right? 220 to 762, bonkers numbers. Nonetheless, they are out with their numbers. Yeah, tomorrow, July 26th, about $26 move for their earnings event. Okay, what else we got? Let's see, jumping around. We talked about China for sure. What do we get to talk? Yeah, let's talk this one. Talking about stock market shrugs off recession signals as rally builds near the highest levels. This is what I mentioned to Kevin. We're right near the highest levels that we've seen. Since April of 2022, okay? Look at where we are in these markets, man. I know we know it, but boy, when you see it, it's not even the end of July. How about the NASDAQ comp? That's the NASDAQ comp, folks, okay? Up 35%, S&Ps up almost 20, Dow Jones industrial average, even on a banking crisis. We had a banking crisis. We had two of the biggest banks in the whole country fail over this time, right? That was the failure right there on March to show you what it looked like, okay? NASDAQ had a pullback. It was up 15. You made two back about seven. S&Ps were up almost 9%. They almost got even for the year, and then things really took off from there. They talk a lot about this article in terms of what's going on. You get the Fed, of course. You get the Fed meeting tomorrow. You have yields. Let's see, it's gonna be an interesting press conference tomorrow. That's the bottom line. Chairman Powell, there's gonna be a lot of expectations to say where we go from here. No matter what he says, remember folks, we get two months of data, right? Next meeting, I believe September 21st, and you are gonna get, before that meeting, all of the month for economic numbers for July, all the numbers for August in there as well, and we're already gonna be deep into September, September 21st on those numbers. So nonetheless, we jump over to yields on that conversation. As yeah, we got a little bit of rising yields. 10 year, back at about 3.91%. You take a look at the daily. It's been quite a pullback. I mean, look where we're sitting, man. Look at where we're sitting, right? Yields are right where we were 10 months ago, and the Fed is still on the hiking cycle. We're remarkable. Now, what's so interesting about this, okay? I mean, look how close we are to where we were in June even of last year. The Fed started their hiking cycle in March. That's where they started, okay? We were at 129 in the 10 year. You made it down to 114 in the heartbeat, man. This market figured out ASAP that it was on like Donkey Kong. But we've been chopping around really since about September last year, and you could make the case that we've been chopping around really since that spike low in June of 2022 for 13 months. Now you did spike to 121, then you really got down into this range, as I mentioned in September. But the reason why I bring that out is because this is a basement, okay? And yeah, if we're ready to go back to lower rates, we've built that base to go back to lower rates. Because we are right near some of the highs we've had, even on the 10 year pushing about 4% right now. You did make it down to 108.26 at one point, but we're right near those levels, man. You take a look at the two year, okay? And yeah, that one makes more sense, right? Because you're basically at lower price, higher yield on a shorter term basis. The Fed's about to go to five and a quarter to 5.5%. You take the middle of that range and you're talking about 5.37% money market interest on a risk-free rate of return. 5.37%. Now you start going out a bit from there. You start talking about CD rates, et cetera. Of course on a short-term basis, they're relatively high because the Fed is still gonna raise, even if they pause that overnight lending rates gonna be at five and a quarter to 5.5% for some period of time. Then the conversation becomes when do they start cutting, right? And that conversation right now is taking place in maybe January, maybe March is consensus that March would be the area that they may potentially be able to start cutting. Now remember that September would be the first real stoppage of their hikes. So September is gonna be the first time. As of right now, all things consider that the market is thinking they will stop. They won't pause, they will stop. We're gonna see where inflation goes from there, folks. We got two months and we'll see. Let's jump around to some of the equities with their numbers tonight. Microsoft shares, pretty tame action. Up about a quarter percent ahead of those numbers. We jump over to Google shares. Yeah, tame action as well. It's a spike to 123. Give it back, Ethan Azdec, 152. Apple shares up a quarter percent. Tesla shares up half a percent. NVIDIA catches the bid up 1.6%. Yeah, these equities, man. Relentless to the upside to say the least. Meta with their numbers tomorrow is up a percent. They trade lower though on the open. Look at that spike, right? Yeah, you may see some volatility, man. We got a big week earnings. Kevin laid out the case of the expectations, right? You got Microsoft, how are they doing? Less PC sales, Windows. Are we selling Windows if we got less PCs? Let alone, how are they gonna make trillions of dollars to warrant their run from 20 to 350? Stay tuned, folks. We got lots to talk about. We'll be right back. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. 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A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares. To obtain a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus, call 866-476-7523 or visit DirectionInvestments.com. A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus should be carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, Four Side Fund Services, LLC. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Pee up by one right now, check out that chart, man. That's a beautiful chart from a year ago. 3,502, that spike low, pretty remarkable. You got that spike low, right? We always see the spikes at the lows, and at least that was it right now, and we're 1,100 points higher, man. And that was an intraday spike. Got it all back, I remember 3,600 was the area, and it took off like a rocket ship. We had a pullback into the beginning of the year, 3,831, you had one more pullback for the bank failures coming in, in March, and then we take off like a rocket ship. And talking about those bank failures, so check this out. This one was out yesterday. FDIC scolds banks for manipulating deposit data. Talk about a need for regulators, man. It is relentless to say the least in terms of how anybody will cut any corner to make a dollar, okay? So check it out. Lenders lowered their uninsured deposits by nearly 200 billion after bank failures. When Silicon Valley Bank ran into trouble, its customers of course ran for the doors and the weeks after, dozens of banks tweaked their numbers to reduce the portions of their deposits that they said were uninsured. Check this out, right? Because that was the boogeyman, right? If you had a high level of uninsured deposits, everyone was running for the door. So what did they say? Everybody wanted to know, hey, hey, how many, what's the percentage of your uninsured deposits going on right now? Because I need to know, because we might be making a run for the door. So what did they do? They changed the accounting rules, but the accounting rules didn't change. So how did they do that? Here's how they did it. The FDIC sent a warning to US banks not to take liberties with their deposit numbers. Is that something that you need to tell banks? A journal analysis of the bank filings with the FDIC showed that Bank of America, remember, because they won one of the biggest ones here, right? They have held to maturity securities as well that have massive losses on them, okay? Which is a big problem for some of those banks if rates stay high, especially. And Huntington National Bank, both of those look to be higher today. Why not? Had among the biggest revisions to their uninsured deposit numbers. So since Silicon Valley Bank went BK in March, 47 banks restated their uninsured deposit figures downward by a total of almost 200 billion. At Silicon Valley Bank, 88% of the deposits were uninsured at year end. That's why everybody ran for the doors, okay? How did they do this? Check it out. Many of the banks that changed their numbers tried to include an unusual type of account in the category of deposits insured by the FDIC. Now, as we're all well aware right now, what's insured? Do you know what's insured? It's very simple, folks. Deposits up to 250,000, end of sentence. You see that period? Period, end of sentence. There is no explanation necessary, okay? Those are the accounts that are insured. These accounts, often from the government entities, let me do that one again. Okay, what they did here is this. They have government entity accounts, okay? They exceed that amount. And the banks put collateral behind them. So they effectively guarantee the depositors would be paid back if the bank failed because they're government accounts that are over that threshold. But in a letter, the FDIC said that only deposits that it insured could be called insured. Pretty basic stuff, right? The existence of collateral has no bearing on the portion of a deposit that is covered by FDIC insurance. Additionally, FDIC said some banks incorrectly showed lower numbers by excluding intercompany deposit balances of subsidiaries, not allowed as well. The largest revision was by Bank of America in a May 5th filing. They said its uninsured deposits were $784 billion, which is $125 billion less than it reported originally. They shaved $125 billion off their uninsured total number on a May 5th filing. Unlike smaller banks, Bank of America was under a little threat in the mass withdrawals. I wouldn't agree with that as much. I mean, yeah, they weren't under that massive threat because guess what? Fed wasn't gonna let Bank of America fail, okay? But they were under a lot of stress. Do you remember what the Bank of America chart looks like? Let's pull it up, man. 125 billion bucks, yeah. Bank of America went from 37 to 27 in a heartbeat. That was a low on March 24th. They've clawed back a lot of those losses, but nothing like what, I mean, the best of them looks like JP Morgan, right? But let's even take a look. Wells Fargo basically got it all back from that March pullback. It's at 46, we got a recent hire of 48. Let's see, Citi, they're in tough shape as well. Yeah, it's a tough deal, but Bank of America maybe the toughest there. So just be careful when you ever see and those reports come out, right? Interesting nonetheless, not exactly super surprising, but there's your graphical representation of somehow all these uninsured deposits just going away. Yeah, so the FDIC is gonna impose a special assessment on banks with more than $5 billion to cover the 15.8 billion that it cost to guarantee Silicon Valley Bank, okay? That was what was lost, $15.8 billion is what it cost it to guarantee the uninsured balance at Silicon Valley Bank and signature. The assessment would be based on the bank's uninsured deposits as of December 31st. So not only are they doing this to make sure that Wall Street doesn't get freaked out because you have too many uninsured deposits, they're also doing it because the assessment to recoup that money is based on your uninsured deposits. It's remarkable, right? It really is. So based on the special assessment formula proposed by the FDIC, Bank of America would owe 1.96 billion over two years down from 2.27. Folks, that is $310 million. $310 million over two years by just tweaking a little accounting. And you wonder why people go crazy over these public companies, man. Of course, their spokesman says they stand by the numbers. The next largest revision was hunting in a national bank. They were at $51 billion or a 40% cut. Yeah, $35 billion below. So they went from $85 billion to $51. Yeah, it's just remarkable how they get away with the man. Nonetheless, so be careful when you hear all those numbers, man. Anytime there's a fear contagion like that and you think there's, I say this often, right? If the probability is greater than zero of something occurring, realize that it's possible and plan for what you'll do if it happens, because it's possible. You don't have to be around long enough, folks, for a one in a thousand shot to come in. You better be prepared for a one in a thousand event to occur if you're looking at the market every day. Because just looking at the market every day, got about 220 trading days a year, you get to 1,000 in under five years. And that's just the average. That means on average, as traders, you're gonna have something occur that is a literal 0.1% probability occurring. Is that right? I gotta do it myself, that is correct. A one in a thousand, because a one in a hundred is 1%. So one in a thousand is 0.1%. Say I made a trade, what's the chance of it going bad? One in a hundred? You say, nah, not even close, man. It's probably 0.1% that that could happen. That's gonna happen every four or five years if you're trading every day and you're looking at the market every day, okay? When these things were going to be okay, say what's the probability that they're hiding some of actually how many uninsured deposits they have? What's the possibility? Get your capital out sometimes. We saw it happen, right? We saw it happen with Silicon Valley Bank. Why were people waiting so long? Can't even pull up anything anymore. Signature, et cetera. Why were people waiting so long, man? The risk or warrant of some of those calculations folks, yeah, we saw it play out in real time, remember it? And those numbers from Bank of America, they should remind you to put your risk in some context there and don't always believe what they're telling you, especially as the contagion is spreading. One more segment folks, stay tuned. We'll be right back. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders. 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Breaking down the Fed's view. You got Waller and Mester, seen as leading the push for tighter policy. Centres led by Powell have embraced higher rates so far and I like the graphical representation, man. You're looking at the members of the Fed. You got members in blue that are voting members. Most important, you got Waller at the top there. Okay, you got Powell, of course, and then you have their influence score. Talking about, of course, Powell at the top, the New York Fed president, regional bank president. Next, I was listening to Bloomberg yesterday. It was interesting. Members of the Fed versus bank presidents. Fed presidents are making like 480 grand or something like that versus FOMC members, committee members are making like 180 grand or something like that. It's interesting how this all goes down the control they have. You go down the line, of course, regional bank presidents. More important versus just the board members out there. Nonetheless, you get the breakdown. I'll post this in the Tiger's Den. And as we wrap it up, folks, a week from tomorrow, right on the front page of TFNN. My dad was talking to Larry last night. We got our man, Larry Pezzavento, coming up live at one o'clock with his program. Trade what you see. He's got a live trading webinar, folks, a week from tomorrow, okay? Trade what you see, a live trading webinar, Wednesday, August 2nd. Larry only does two, three of these a year. 9 a.m. till 2 p.m., so it's five hours. Larry does not trade the last couple hours of the day. So that's why he lines it up like this. This is his trading sweet spot, five hours from a half hour before they open in New York to 2 p.m. Eastern time. Great segment last night, just talking about everything he's gonna be trading, whether it's the E-mini S&P, gold, grains, if you've been following Larry as well. Folks, check it out. It's $295. You get a month of his newsletter, which is almost $100 value right away. It's archived, so you can go over the five hours at a later time if you can't catch it all while it's going on. You just wanna recap what's going on. Check it out, and right when you sign up, you start gaining access to his newsletter. So don't wait, sign up, get in there a week from tomorrow, and yeah, we got some action in this market, and for a live trading event with our man, Larry Pezzavento, and stay tuned. We got our man, Basil Chapman. He's up next with the Tiger Technicians Hour, folks. Appreciate you starting your day with me. Stay tuned for Basil. He's coming up next. Have a great one, folks.