 trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento all now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618 now Larry Pezzavento okay good afternoon folks listen I wanted to mention by the way Stan Harley will be our guest again at the half hour he's going to go and extend some of these discussions we had on cycles and left translation and right translation very important in cycle analysis and it's also very important when you're looking at these things that we call flags or dynamite triangles I wanted to bring up a couple of the banking stocks I've said this many times but you notice that this high that we made right up here right before the markets came apart that's when Bart Jim Bartolioni was our guest and Bart told us look that was a 382 in the long-term weekly it was an ABCD structure everything that screamed you know this thing's ready to go down of course we didn't think it was going to go down this far but you can see what's happened when these market break these little two-day rallies that's what this little flag is about and so when you have a two-day rally and then you take the low out of the previous day that's what causes this acceleration but look at this this is not even even begin to make a bottom down in here I mean this is this is a very ominous sight thing but I'm not I don't want to show all of these banks but I do want to I want to show you you know a couple of them because I think they're important enough to you know really give us an idea the next one we're going to look at here is this just get this up here so we can see it really quickly this is first Republic oh dear just a second here the Billy Ray Valentine has missed the game I can't figure out there it is I got it okay hold on there we go and this is this is a first Republic of Los Angeles remember it was going to be bought out here it all fell through look at this this thing is just keeps cascading down I mean this is the same thing if you look at these little little triangles on the way down I mean I'm not going to be talking about those too much unless the people have an interest in it but it's a good way for for people that are really aggressive and really press the you know press the handle I don't do that but there are others that do but there's a there's a way of actually trading those if you watch it but let me do let me just do one two more that because they they're very very important and one of them is most of you probably have an account at this outfit and it's called hold on one second it is called Bank of America so give me one second here oh they're giving me a a little bit of a hold on just a second a warning here that my data is coming out and glued and I don't like to hear that so here's Bank of America it's actually one of the better ones if you'll notice here we had a little bit of a bounce here we couldn't even make it a 3-8-2 on this last bounce you can see it just nothing and then today it's down quite a bit now this this doesn't have any effect on your past books and stuff folks well FDIC is supposed to do that what happens is the stockholders of Bank of America those are the ones that have trouble that's the that's the main ones back in 1986 when I was living with John Rafoni up in Avila Beach after I had left commodity corporation Bank of America was selling for five dollars a share and actually at 498 at one time and John bought personally he bought a million dollar million shares he put five million dollars in it and of course he sold it much much higher many years ago but what was happening there is the bank was so mismanaged that and they had such good assets that it was just a matter of time before someone realized that that's it another one was McDonald's folks in 2008 remember after the the big the big debacle down there do you know that I believe no it was 2000 2008 nope it was 2004 in 2004 after the the dot com dot com yeah the 2000 high the 2004 low McDonald was selling for ten seven didn't the ten dollars and 78 cents it's two hundred and seventy eight dollars now someone realized that there was good value there well good value is when you're looking at the price of the chart and say how much do I have to risk to see if I'm going to buy that stock and that's primarily what we try to do with pattern recognition is to pick the ones that look like the very best and some of these stocks look so very very bad that I wouldn't touch him with a with a fine tooth comb you know I mean look at the you had what silver the silicone valley bank went under the the bank of New York went under a signature bank in New York the Mellon bank is good JP Morgan looks really good let me just show you JP Morgan here folks this is this is the best of the best as far as I'm concerned of the banks and it just made a 382 retracement too so bear with me here this is not good action it really isn't maybe this is what the stock oh this is what the stock markets are possibly anticipating here but look at this just recently yesterday excuse me today JP Morgan hit a 382 retracement of the move down now if we start going below here trouble in river city but look what happened here when the market took off look at just just keeps cascading see if you looked at those little breakouts on the way up that's how you trade those more look at those each day in fact I was doing those today and I was just you know picking a pocket change but it was it was fun to watch him because they work so quickly and they work so accurately so I'm going to be looking into it a little bit or my my game pan game plan is uh oh we've got a cowboy coming in from Wyoming yeah lazy Larry's up on the ball what do you got my friend he's got off the horse check my computer I got a question fire away my friend uh well on the 60 minute June lean hogs my symbols you know forward slash he m and um the I understand we had a in our cash a buy for 8950 but the um you know on the 60 minute you can see the ABCD down for the garly buy shifted to the right kind of what do you do well with versus you you have to be doing the June hogs correct I believe it was June yeah I hope I got that right even yeah that is correct this June hogs and we are right there right now let's get it we should be trading yesterday we hit a low of 80 uh I think the the buy was it right at 89 as I recall 8950 I believe 8950 and they're trading at 8950 right now let's get this up here so the folks can see it this is actually pretty good because you just put a you know one one cent stop on it and the reason why is because you know yep there we go get it up here so you'll be able to see it that is setting right at the exact 786 it hit it two days in a row so you know I have my stop working at 8810 that's where I'm I'm risking only uh $500 in that but I became a hog farmer for 500 bucks so that's what I'm doing that's what you're doing all right it doesn't matter that the ABC D down of the Gartley buy shifted to the right there's no it doesn't matter in this case not no because I have I have three reasons to buy it I have the ABCD from the high and then I also have the 78 percent retracement then I have a 1.27 expansion of the last high to low and that tells me three numbers are there either stops right here or I'll be up there living with you in your ranch yeah okay I appreciate you thank you so much Larry Larry any time my friend I like your name whoever named you they named you the right name I guess right yeah you know Lawrence Olivier was a big big dude at that time in history of my mom's mind oh well my well I'll tell you a story about my grandmother when I when I meet you someday for a drink okay okay let's take a break hey thanks for calling in Larry stay stay warm summer's coming flip your right back boys and girls currencies commodities and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Keg stats tiger forex report Teddy Keg stat breaks down the forex markets every Monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures forex stocks and options Teddy releases his weekly tiger forex report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs including the dollar index the euro dollar pound dollar dollar Swiss dollar yen as well as many more and he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30-year t-bonds as they both influence forex markets tremendously when you sign up for the tiger forex report you also gain instant access to Teddy's 60-minute webinar archive he just hosted forex strategies and fundamentals what is behind the tiger forex report for all the details and to start your 30-day tiger forex report subscription today visit the front page of tfnn.com tfnn educating investors tfnn has just launched their new trading room the tiger's den hosted at discord tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with 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O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years a frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC Tom O'Brien founded tfnn over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you Tom's Daily Market Newsletter Market Insights is published every morning when the market's open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed these newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio get Tom O'Brien's newsletter Market Insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money back guarantee at tfnn.com tfnn educating investors at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 okay i think i have the chart of uh the june live hogs up right now i hope we do this one of the larger of the commodities traded cattle of course and hogs are very big and of course hogs are the number one hogs and chicken over in in Asia anyway let's take a look at this this is a encompasses just about everything that we teach here at tfnn this is the chart you can see the bottom that we made back here the market has a really strong rally then it comes down and makes an abcd formation to the downside you notice that that red box there shows you at 89.53 guess where it's trading today folks 89.53 the low was made yesterday at 88.90 so anything below that you're probably wrong so you're risking only about 250 dollars here in hogs and what i've done here is i've added the other swings that are there when Larry when i were talking you'll notice here that you have the market goes up and then it comes down and then it comes up and then it comes down and what that does is it gives you several calculations you can see this is the double bottom and then you come up and there's your expansion so now you have three numbers here you have the expansion number from this move okay you have the 78 percent level of this move and then you have the abcd move of this one so now you have three things to tell you and you don't know nothing about hogs you don't know how many are out there as long as there's not a pig crop report tomorrow should be okay but now you know exactly what your risk is so you're risking 400 now if it's right what will your possible you know swing be well the minimum swing so far has been three and a half cents so that's a little over 1200 so you're risking 400 to make 1200 that's three to one with the probability of winning better than 62 percent now there's no baseball player that hits 6,620 there's no golfer that it's wins 60 percent of the ballpark of the golf matches and stuff but anyway this is what you try to do is you line up these numbers so that you have a place to say ah this is where i can play the game you don't need anything about fundamentals not important they probably are but not us because we're technicians and that's what we're trying to do as we look at some of those now i wanted to just review some of the things that we had coming in this week because they were really quite exciting i mean because they so many of them hit just absolutely spot on and if you if you don't believe me just go and well you can go check them yourself but we've been very bullish the sugar for a very long time and we were noticing here that if we once we the big 1.618 number on this came right into that level that's where your your final profit objective was you can see the three drive to a top pattern right here i mean this is nothing but abcd is all the way up and here you've reached your final destination and so you don't care if it goes any higher because that's where you were supposed to take your profits you don't want to be greedy because if you become greedy you'll become the needy and you don't want to do that always have a place to take your profits sure it may go far beyond where you want it to go but by golly that's what you have to do and if there's ever been example of that it's been in those soybeans folks because i took profits way too early but we had a nice run and we're going to have another run they're down today for the first day we're probably going to get three or four more down days but look at that beautiful buying right here at that guardly at 1392 the low was 1384 and we've gone up a dollar a bushel over five grand we got three of the five but we left a bunch on the table but we'll pick it up on the next time the bus drives by and we'll be able to have another trade that we see lining up pretty nicely so those are just some of the ones that we've been watching really closely and if you those of you that have been with us for for quite some time you remember here just about a month ago well i was about three weeks ago on on march 27th we had this big high that was happening in the cattle i'll point this out to you in just a little bit it led to a beautiful buy you'll see there was our little our pattern right here we had multiple abcd's right up at this level at 161 market broke right down to the 61 percent retracement of this low here at 151 and look at this for eight eight nine days now it's just been absolutely straight up and we're almost ready to hit the top part of this three drive to a top pattern at this particular time notice how hogs are going lower and cattle are going higher that happens all the time because it's a different meat folks the people that buy beef are different than the people that buy pork and chicken and don't know what that difference is but there's a difference i guess it's because beef is so expensive and chicken and pork are relatively bad by the way the price of eggs have come down somewhat but with the price of soybeans getting ready to accelerate get ready to start paying five to ten dollars a dozen in eggs so it's going to be a big big move for some of these people to try to get by without spending it you know an arm and a leg you know for some of these things okay now this is the one i haven't checked yet for this let's get this one up here because this is the one that was really interesting if you remember a week or so ago we had that big move in april hogs now april are into no not into delivery but we're into the delivery month so they switched over to the june but you can see here the the big bottom that we had right here that was a really nice move here stopping right at the 382 that was worth well over uh fourteen hundred dollars on a four-day rally of course we made a new low and now we're we're starting to bounce back a little bit but as you get into the delivery months like if you're trading april hogs you don't want to be trading april hogs you want to switch over and go to the next lead month which in this particular case will be the june now we do a lot in currencies so you can trade any of the currencies that you want another one that was been really interesting and if you don't believe this one this is this is really spectacular the pattern that we had here in copper the metal and we'll just get this up here it's another thing that makes you wonder why stocks would be rather look at this absolutely spectacular 135 pattern we had here on friday folks we're down here this is where this is where we're trading below well below four dollars now in the in the copper it's had a huge break and so it's got down into this area right here but a beautiful pattern right here you can see the three drive pattern that is right here setting right at the 61 percent retracing of that move but even more importantly it was the 382 of this move right here so you had four or five numbers right there at that level of 397 and it rallied all the way up to 410 and now it's going back down below that level because these patterns when they move they're very very dynamic and you don't want to stand in front of the old dynamo when that's happening because these things when they move and they do move very quickly you got to be very very assured that by golly you don't want to stand in front of some of these freight trains that have been going on now i wanted to bring this up but this is really interesting one because this is where we were this is where we were friday folks you're going to get a kick out of this one because we were getting ready to sell crude oil on on sunday night and you'll see why we were sitting on the top of this channel right here and of course the dudes open it up seven dollars if you had to sell order and you got filled right on the high and it's broken three dollars in that level but the news announcement came out about the saudi's you know cutting back production and the market gapped up we've seen this many times if you traded oil over the years on september the 19th of 2019 same thing dropped 19 dollars a barrel after that high hey we'll be right back but stan harley the harley stock market better if you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my gold report the gold report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold which is the currency and bond markets new subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to lose every monday morning i published a gold report with coverage of gold silver bonds the xu hui gdx as well as more than 30 different mining equities to see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the gold report sign up now by visiting tfnn.com don't miss out on the next great gold trade sign up today sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's youtube channel with tiger tv live every market day from 8 30 a.m to 4 p.m eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds tiger tv has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel and become the investor you were born to be tfnn educating investors are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio tom obrien is here to help tom obrien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years a frequent contributor to tv ameritrade network and cnbc tom obrien founded tfnn over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you tom's daily market newsletter market insights is published every morning when the market's open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed these newsletters are packed full of tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio get tom obrien's newsletter market insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk free with our money back guarantee at tfnn.com tfnn educating investors this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com folks we're back with stan harley for segment two of the harley stock market letter and cycle information stan how are you doing hello larry i'm doing just awesome oh my goodness it's just like hollywood now with this new microphone whatever you did is just perfect it's perfect that's great let's go tell us do this pretty much the same thing and spend some time about the importance of high translation left and high translation right because that's really important because when when cycles crest real early it's extremely bearish and you know that it's just very important and when they you know go to the right it's extremely bully so try to give the folks two cents worth of what that really means absolutely larry just as a backdrop i thought i would review again for all the viewers the dominant what i call the primary cycle on the weekly chart and what that is and then why you and i and all of us need to be keenly aware of what's going on over time the stock market tends to make important lows at roughly 34 week intervals that's equivalent to eight months parentheses both of those are fibonacci numbers that cycle of course like all cycles that it contracts and expands over time but if one looks at a sufficiently large enough sample size one will find that the nominal span is right at 34 weeks eight months and that cycle of course last bottomed on october the 13th of last year and based on my analysis it's due to bottom again in mid-june which would be eight months later and so that's my expectation of course before we get to a low we have to get to a high and that's only two months from now so this market has basically been chugging higher now for five now we're now into the six month so now we need to start looking for signs that this thing could be topping out here is a chart of the s of p 500 that i ran off about two hours ago oh not even that a little over an hour ago um this goes back about a year's time and uh with the red vertical arrows i have denoted the prior 34 week cycle bottom and where i am expecting the next 34 week cycle bottom to occur and that's in mid-june each of these primary cycles i have found tend to be spliced by four what i call trading cycles if the cycle expands there might be five if it contracts there might be only three but generally speaking the vast majority tend to have four distinct trading cycles within them the the prior primary cycle that bottomed in october it it had four trading cycles the the current one i believe will have four we've seen number one we see number two and now we're in number three so we need to think start thinking about okay when is this thing likely to peak out i mean here we are you know we're in april and aloe is due in june so i'd be getting a little bit nervous from the long side and rightly so um on the s&p chart s&p chart coming down to the october low each of the trading cycles was characterized by left translation what does that mean well if you look at the time period from low to low for the then current trading cycle and then take note of where the high point occurred is that high point to the right or to the left of the middle of the cycle the midpoint if it's to the right we have right translation if it's to the left we have left translation and left translation is associated with a declining market environment right translation associated with a rising market environment i know this all sounds complicated but once uh one takes a look at it and carefully uh examines it can give us a lot of clues as to what's going on all the way into the october lows each of the trading cycles was associated with left translation okay now we hit the october bottom start moving up out of there the very first trading cycle on the s&p chart was 49 trading days and the crest occurred over there in december 13th well to the right i mark that right translation now the second trading cycle which began from the december lows and then bottomed in mid-march that spanned bottom to bottom 53 trading days and the uh the top the crest that occurred on february the second uh was what was it 28 trading days it was made it was one day to the right of the middle so mark that one is right translation but just barely let's look at the dow chart that's the next one similar structure but the highs and the lows are not exactly the same as the s&p the first trading cycle was 49 trading days as measured low to low still we had right translation but larry the second cycle expanded to 55 trading days and look at where the crest occurred well to the left of the midpoint well to the left over there um in uh in the middle of january so chock went up for left translation well and also with left translation you typically have a lower crest and a lower trough and that's exactly what the dow exhibited so s&p we had right translation in the last cycle the dow we had left and i look at three more what i call the major benchmark indices i call them the big five for me the big five are the the dow industrials the dow transports the s&p 500 the nasdaq composite and the new york composite and i want to look at all five of those and kind of make a little compilation and that's what i've done here so i looked at the december low or the march low for all five of those and a little tick box here did those cycles have right left or centered translation and here's the summary the s&p was the only index to experience right translation it did only by one trading day the dow had left translation the nasdaq had left translation the new york composite topped exactly at the midpoint i call that center translation and the dow jones transports also had left translation so clearly left translation carries the day so what is that telling me the 34 week cycle has probably seen its highs and now we're in the process of heading lower but we're lower today that's for sure we're lower today i don't think the high is in um it could be but i don't think so uh and here's one of the reasons why i've got a number of reasons but here's here's one reason um this is a chart of the dow industrials going back two years and notice how the vertical lines are pretty evenly spaced well they are they're spaced every 80 trading days um i've marked the high points uh of the trading cycle highs in each of the last two years and then i dump this information to a spreadsheet crank the crank the wheel and out comes the the analysis we have an 80 trading day cycle here evident and uh in in terms of highs and the standard deviation on that is three trading days and what the analysis says is look to the april 10th time period for the next high now that doesn't tell us the magnitude of the high but it tells us to look for a high right around april the 10th and i know historically um we have a standard deviation there which is an important factor to consider when you're doing analysis you really need to know that the standard deviation is three trading days so that tells me april the 10th with a 68 probability of a high occurring within three trading days of that day well that's the next way today's the first sure is hey stay with us stan please stan harley the harley stock market letter folks we'll be right back sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's youtube channel with tiger tv live every market day from 8 30 a.m to 4 p.m eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds tiger tv has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel and become the investor you were born to be tfnn educating investors everything in the universe is governed by the fibonacci sequence this mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market to stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of sign up for the fibonacci 24 7 newsletter at tfnn.com when you subscribe you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader larry pesavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust larry's analysis after all he's got 45 years experience as a day trader larry will also provide daily charts 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before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor foresight fund services LLC this program is brought to you by vista gold traded on the nyse american ntsx under the symbol vgz we're back folks with stan harley at the harley stock market letter and please continue young man absolutely very let's uh go back and take a look at the stock market once again just to kind of summarize things uh the trading cycle structure is exhibiting left translation the 80 trading day cycle is telling us that a high is likely coming here very soon so we need to be thinking about that and uh either taking steps to mitigate the risk or do whatever a trader needs to do uh but i'm i'm trying to convey not how to trade but i'm trying to convey the analytical process here i'm a cycles person i want to look at timing counts from lows to lows highs to highs and then look at other things like translation and kind of put this all together in the mix give it a good shake and that gives me some clues as to whether i believe the market is likely to trend higher or trend lower and it's my view we're getting close to probably what could be a tradeable high okay let's take a look at interest rates this is a very long-term chart going back many years this data was provided to me by the foundation for the study of cycles and that goes back to the 1750s so quite a period of time i have not uh throughout the duration of this this time period seen a definitive single cycle uh although post civil war there appears to be a 40-year cycle in the data series but from 1753 through the present i can't find a nice clear cycle but what i can find are the time counts uh in years from high to high and from low to low and uh it's fascinating to me as a as an analyst to see that these time counts are a function of the lucas number series for example over there on the left uh the first two highs i have marked with the blue vertical lines spanned a period of 44 years well clearly that's the number 47 lucas number that's operational uh the next sequence spanned a total of 78 years that's the lucas number 76 in operation and then the the last high to high function spanned 61 years uh that's the lucas number 29 times two which equals 58 so these lucas numbers work not only across the top defining the crests but they also work across the bottom defining the troughs and as we've talked about in the past they work very well in defining uh markets uh the stock market the yearly stock market going back to the year 1602 can be defined by these lucas numbers in yearly counts as well fascinating stuff very when i look at that spike i realize that's when we were starting you know it was back in the late 70s early 80s you know yeah that was uh 1981 uh 80 81 i bought my first house as a young junior naval officer back in that time and i paid through the nose i got a va loan but i think my va loan was 10 percent uh wow and that was a good deal back then yeah 14 15 percent was not unheard of uh some people paid that yeah they were very thankful to get here speaking of uh mortgage rates on homes here is that data set uh through the present time frame and wow look at this volcanic rise from the beginning of 2021 through the present in the last two plus years rates have gone from basically two and three quarters to over seven here just a few weeks ago wow what a powerful move and so what are rising rates do well they kind of kill off uh home prices and that's exactly what's developing right now this is the case schiller data which tracks home prices across the united states uh anyone can download this data it's available for free on the u.s government fred website one can download the national index data which is which this is a graphic of you can pull the data into a spreadsheet and plot it and analyze it and then there are also 20 regional indices around the country as well as 10 separate indices that reflect the major metropolitan areas around the country this is the national index going back to 1975 and just take note of the of the waveform what we will find is all of the metropolitan areas around the united states have essentially the same waveform some areas particularly out west might be a little bit more volatile but you still have essentially the same waveform very characteristic here is a major spike high that occurred in the summer of 2006 and another one which i believe occurred about six seven months ago uh in the summer of 2022 we're in the very early stages of that but let's let's just take a peek out west at the la index for example an area where you and i used to live that has the same waveform as the national index it's a little more volatile meaning the the crests and the troughs are a little bit more pronounced which makes it a little easier for me to analyze as a cycles analyst and the time period between highs and lows is a very regularly recurring heartbeat of about 63 to 64 months i see a big abcd i see a big abcd pattern on that one that's for sure um my goodness i hadn't thought of that but i guess so sure yeah it's pretty much a very simple but very effective buy sell signal is take note of where the monthly price bars in blue cross the 18 month moving average in red and when the blue bars cross above the uh the 18 month in red that's a essentially a buy signal uh had a little fake out there in 2010 2011 but the but the uh the um the cycles analysis combined with looking at the way the uh the structure and the two and the moving average and the price bars would have kept one sideline but we got a definitive breakout in 2012 where the monthly price bars broke above the 18 month moving average and stayed above it all the way until this last data point December 2022 which is the latest um well actually i think we have the giant we may have the January data now which just came out a couple days ago which i don't think i have on this chart um no no this this is this is the most recent one i believe um but regardless what we're seeing now is a break of the monthly price bars below the 18 month moving average so we have a potential sell here in real estate um and i think uh uh it's a little early to say how low can we go but look what happened between 2006 and 2012 could it happen again uh the the short answer is yes it could happen again but i'll tell you what's different this time is compared to then then you had interest rates going down now you have interest rates going up yeah up fast too that's yes so could that be uh a great bigger fly in the ointment i don't know but as a technician uh i'd say it pays to be cautious something to be aware of that's for sure indeed well you you have some really good charts here describing what you're looking at technically and it really helps stand so thanks for joining us buddy have a wonderful holiday at Easter time and we'll see you soon okay buddy enjoyed it thank you very much you bet Harley stock market letter folks we'll be right back with a wrap up 877-927-6648 if you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market then rocket equities and options report is a newsletter you should try tomyo brian delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals sign up for rocket equities and options report today with a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk for all the details and to start your subscription today visit the front page of tfnn.com tfnn educating investors you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market 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traders just visit the front page of tfnn.com catch Tom O'Brien professional trader and educator founder of tfnn also a special guest on CNBC Tom will bisect and dissect the markets the Tom O'Brien show next on tfnn okay folks uh well Stan made a really interesting case for left translation and that's what we're seeing I posted the chart of the Dow Jones industrial average showing the high we made in December and you'll notice here folks that we have made a exact 61% retracement the number was 33,845 high last night was 33,880 it was 35 points higher 35 points out of something that's trading at 33,800 are you kidding me that's a pretty accurate number we also saw the interest in the E-mini S&P what it was doing and most importantly we saw that the Russell even though the S&P and the Dow Jones were making the 61% retracements the Russell small cap was only making a 38% retracement and couldn't even take out yesterday's high these are negative things folks now whether the Federal Reserve dropping their GDP forecast today means anything from 3.6 down to 1.9 we'll find out in the next few months to see if that's going to be correct but follow the charts and trade what you see not what you think because you know what they can lie to you they can cheat you they can give you misinformation but they can't hide from you if there's more buying prices are going up if there's more selling prices are going down just look at those bank stocks folks they're yelling and screaming something's wrong out there but nobody's paying attention to them because the feds come out and said with Janet Yellen and the Treasury we're going to back everybody doesn't make any difference there'll be no failures well maybe that's true but again we heard this before with Ben Bernanke back in October of 07 he said all the lights are green on this economy folks and we went into the worst bear market that we had since 2000 so trade what you see not we think that's what it's all about it's not what you think folks it's how you think you got to think like a winner winner thinks how much I can lose not how much I can win protect your backside see you on the flip side tomorrow boys and girls live every day in an attitude of gratitude and may god bless