 Wild guard weekend is coming in hot with the first game kicking off and just a little bit over 24 hours Or any today is go through all six games talk about some props breakdown of favorite bets For this weekend and take your questions to get you set for what should be a fantastic weekend of football This is the fan dual live Q&A. That's right here on the fan dual YouTube twitch Facebook and Twitter channels My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst or number fire calm joined here by Brandon Gadoula Jessica great. I will be joining us in just a bit to break down her thoughts on wild card weekend as well be talking to her About her thoughts on this weekend's games. You can find Jessica on Twitter at great iron and wine Brandon Gadoula of course the managing editor of number fire calm Brandon happy playoffs to you How are you doing today? Good we broke down this entire weekend of games Yesterday And we got some news. I think that that's gonna change a little bit With some running back health which might open up some value, which would be fun I was curious if you're referring to letter for net or Darrell Williams there Well both okay, so let's recap that before we dive into the games here Quick reminder you can get your questions in a matter where you're watching YouTube twitch Facebook or Twitter We'll be less question-centric today trying to focus You know go more game by game to get you set for this wild card weekend But as always if you got questions we go along some props to checking out and want our thoughts on it Put them in chat whether it be YouTube Facebook twitch or Twitter. We'll get to those on the stream here the news Brandon is referring to starting over Leonard for net on Sunday Sound like he's gonna be a game time call now as far as him from an IR perspective if he's gonna play Sunday He must be activated by Saturday, so we'll know if he's activated by then However, we might not know if he'll be active active until Sunday morning I'm guessing he still plays because Bruce Arian said if he's active he'll carry the load that to me indicates the like he's Probably gonna play but like also, you know, it's not not a guarantee whereas we thought it was before I think the good thing here is that Eli Mitchell $74 right by for net in terms of salary for the DFS slate Can make it a pretty easy swap because that games after his so whether it's for the Saturday through Monday slate or the Sunday Only so you've got some options there other one Clyde Edwards E-Lair ruled out Which means Daryl Williams be the lead back for Kansas City, and he's had a really good role So I'm guessing that's what you're referring to Daryl Williams $6600 he's had a great role when CEH has been out How are you viewing Daryl Williams in the context of the Saturday through Monday slate now knowing the CEH is in fact out? I think he's very much in play Because he's gonna open up some salary even a little bit of salary goes a long way on this slate whether you can upgrade your quarterback Get up to some of the superstar Wide receivers in tight ends as opposed to bumping down into that mid-range So I really think that any savings we can get are going to be welcome. So for me Daryl's definitely on that radar. Yeah, I think that to me. He's like top four at running back Considering salary that depends on whether James Conner goes like if Conner can't go chase Edmunds is probably like the number one running back on the slate Four nets up there still Devin singletary is up there. I think that Daryl Williams in that discussion with those guys That's where I'm at with him right now. We'll talk about that full game in just a bit But let's start things off here by going with the first game of the week That is the Raiders at the Bengals also note here We're gonna have a little competition as we did last year We're gonna give each of our analysts me Brandon and Jessica three units to play with for prop bets for this week We're gonna go through the show go through each game and let you know where we're allocating those units for this weekend Let's start things off with this Raiders at the Bengals game right now The Bengals five and a half point favorites total is 48 and a half Brandon looking at this game I'm very hesitant on the Raiders and I was gonna make one of my bets be their team total under 22 but that change is now 21 so I'm avoiding that so I have no plays in this game for our stream What are you seeing in this one here? I do have one of my three units on this game, and it is going to be just on the under I think that this game is it's good. It's projecting to be cold There's gonna be some moderate wind and the Raiders since Thereby and without Henry rugs have been as you I think you would put it aggressively mediocre offensively it They've been kind of bad Well, they're underlying data Kind of has them a little bit below league average, so it's not as bad as I thought but either way It's not really what you want to see for an over and also as much as I hate to say it The Bengals have had a lot more scoring luck than any other team this year according to the data that I use So their points per play versus expected points per play is the biggest outlier in my model So that's something even if you adjust it for samples with T Higgins healthy And excluding games, you know the week 18 game. I'm kind of I'm on the under here So with it with the with the weather being what it is with the two offenses, maybe having some question marks I think this game plays to the under that does not mean that I think Yeah, there are no plays in this game from a six game slate standpoint Darren Waller, but I think the under it's definitely my my pick here on the over under here So I did bet the under for this game It's not on my picks for the show, but I did bet the under as well I got a 49 it's 48 and a half right now So neither of us like points, so let's try to get some small business here bring in Jessica grid iron We'll bring her on to the stream and see what her thoughts are on this game first of all though Jessica Welcome happy wild card weekend. How you doing today? I'm doing great. Happy to see you guys Yeah, happy to have you here and happy to get a little competition cooking over here as mentioned We just get three in it's a piece Brandon is putting one of his units on the under in this game at 48 and a half What's your view of Raiders Bengals and any plays for you in this game? That's funny. I heard both of you guys were liking the under in this game, and I actually like the over Let the games begin, right? I love it Yes, and for our game that we have going on I will throw a unit on this too So I'm okay. Yes, I like it. I like the over in this game I know you guys put out some good points talking about especially the weather and this Raiders team however, I still feel like they are find a way to be hungry at times and The Bengals defense as good as it's been they do struggle and when it comes to stopping the pass So I feel like the Raiders will be able to keep up and That especially and both of them they also have a really strong run game So I feel like they'll both be able to pound the rock and again be able to move the ball down the field and put points up on the board So that's the standpoint. I like for the over now I do have some prop bets are looking to but I'll go ahead and let you go first Talk about the prop bets. Yeah, so for me. I wanted to look at I think the one that stands out I've not bet this and I it's not gonna be from another place of the game For our little game here. I did have some interest in the Josh Jacobs rushing plus receiving yardage prop It's 83 and a half minus 114 on the over. He's been at about 97 yards from scrimmage per game Since the snap rate increase so I had some interest there on Josh Jacobs. Where were you turning towards Jessica in terms of props for this one? Yeah, so I when it comes to props. I have quite a few that kind of stick out to me The ones that I like any time touchdowns T Higgins at plus 135. I saw and Jamar Chase at minus 105 Reason I like I know that fantasies over but I kind of looked on I leaned on fantasy a little bit to kind of give me some Backup reasons on why I chose some of these prop bets And the reason being is the raiders have allowed the seventh most fantasy points to receivers on the season So those were some good ones that stood out to me one one of my favorites, though Is Hunter Renfrow at plus 170 He's had nine touchdowns on the season and he scored a touchdown in eight out of 17 games So that one looked stood out to me as well As when it comes to Renfrow to when it comes to receiving props I also liked the over 55 and a half at minus 110 He's averaging 61 yards per game on the season He's hit that mark nine out of 17 games, which is really good too and Another one too is Jamar Chase over 70 and a half at minus 110 receiving yards He's done that eight out of 17 games Plus you have Joe burrow who second the league in EPA EPA and CPOE Composite so those are some ones that really stuck out to me and then a fun one too was actually a Jamar Chase scoring two touchdowns in a game at plus 600 Which I know that's kind of going out a little bit out there But he's been known to do it a couple times this season in a game So if you're looking to you know, I guess just a fun prop that one stuck out to me That is fun. So the hunter Renfrow anytime touchdown one. I've been looking at their numbers since The bi-week so with no Henry rugs and the games of Waller has played Renfrow's red zone sure that net span is still 25% scored twice obviously on Sunday with Waller being there That's a good red zone share So I think that that would makes a lot of sense brand any props for you for Bengals Raiders Or are we all set there? I think we're pretty set on this game. All right Let's move on to the Saturday night game and we got a bringing Grim fan here asking if I've gotten my Kendrick born Jersey yet No, not it's not happening. I refuse. How dare you and honestly like when I look at this game I think that there are some good numbers in this game They are not actually I have some interest in the jacobi mires receiving yardage profit was 44 and a half It's 45 and a half now. I still think that one's fine The big one for me though and one of my plays in our three-unit contest for today is Devon single Terry's rushing plus receiving yardage It's 80 and a half that is like 17 yards too low because in the five games He has been the team's lead back. He said 97 yards per game in that span So it's situation where it's gonna be very cold They may skew a bit more run heavy than usual that could help single Terry here But also multiple paths to an over because he does get work as both the rusher and her seeper So I like single Terry over 80 and a half for this game That is one of my three units for this game Brandon your thoughts Patriots versus Bills Yeah, so Look, I'm not the biggest fan of this New England offense when it comes to daily fantasy by any means So I think I'm a little bit skewed with their expectations. However My data has their offense is pretty dang good adjusted for everything So I think this game is actually gonna be a little bit closer Than I initially thought kind of gets me on a little bit of a stay away from any outright bets Okay, and as far as the the way that New England shares the ball in terms of their past catchers. I couldn't quite get myself toward Any of their past catching props, but I love I love the single Terry call his role has been phenomenal I think they're gonna lean on him, especially if the weather You know it is as forecast. Yeah, I would agree at that too. Okay, Jessica What are you seeing for Patriots versus Bills on Saturday night? Yeah, so when I looking at these the prop bets that stick out to me is definitely in the run game So I have Damian Harris For any time touchdown at plus 110. I really liked bills are 21st against running backs and fantasy points Another one that stick stood out to me was also with just Damian Harris in general So I like Damian Harris at 80 plus yards at plus 270 and his rushing yards at over 58 and a half I look really good too and the reason I like this is because when you look at them when they've already played each other The season and week 13 he had 111 yards and one touchdown and then a week 16 at 103 yards and three touchdowns. So For our game, I will go ahead and throw. Okay. Yes. I'm gonna throw we can do half points too, right? If I yeah, of course. Okay. Okay. Do whatever you want. You can do quarter points I don't care you need to make the rules here just because I like two of them so I'll do a half a point on Damian Harris 80 plus yards and then I also Want to do another one, which is sorry. I'm gonna stick this out another one stick out to me real quick Mack Jones over he has his rushing yards are over seven and a half at minus 130 and In week 13 he rushed for 19 and then in week 16 he rushed for 33 yards So I will do a half unit on Mack Jones and I'll do a half unit on Damian Harris at 80 plus yards I love it. That's really fun and that Damian Harris game though Well, the first one you mentioned he had 110 yards despite leaving it like half time with a hamstring injury Like it was an absurd game. He was awesome there and that that second one I mean, I did not have him in DFS that day and he had three touchdowns I was like driving and we get these notifications for every touchdown It's like Damian Harris touchdown Damian Harris touchdown Damian Harris touchdown just drove me nuts So he is he is the bane of my existence But I agree that the over on the rushing prop at 58 and a half Because they seem to like him most a lot of times the playoffs we see teams focus on The guys they think are best they concentrate the usage a bit more and that leads to Inflated tolls from what we've seen before. I think Harris is their best guy I think that they think Harris is their best guy too. I would not be shocked if his usage does go up in this game So Jessica is going with Mack Jones over seven and a half and Harris over 80 plus yards for a half a unit A piece let's move now to the Sunday games and I have my first spread bet of Of our game here. I like the Eagles plus eight and a half and If this game were being played in normal weather, I would not take this one my numbers like like this value regardless and like I disagree with my numbers plenty often like it They want me to take the Steelers plus 12 and a half on Sunday. Absolutely not. You know, no No, I'm not doing that But they see value in the Eagles plus eight and a half And we've seen this total come down because the weather I don't think we've seen enough reaction on the spread in this game because if it's going to be a sloppy game We see the ground games be more focal with a lot of rain with heavy winds That situation I do think benefits the Eagles in this game The the the box rush defense is very good But the Eagles offensive line is amazing. Their ground attack has been very good I think that they are well positioned to excel in these elements. We have not seen a reaction on the spread in this game So to me Eagles plus eight and a half a really fun way to play this game That'll be one of my units for our contest as well Eagles plus eight and a half Jessica. I'm sorry to you for this one And see what your thoughts are Eagles versus bucks brought thoughts for you and anything that stands out to you in this game Yeah, so I'm with you on the Eagles at plus eight and a half That's just a bet that I'm already looking at that. I'm leaning towards But as far as our game goes when looking at these props some Anytime touchdowns. I kind of like Jaylen Hertz at plus 230 Just because in their last matchup in week six, he ran in two two touchdowns So and we all know how he's great on his legs. So that is something that I will do I will put a half a unit on our game Perfect and then another one, which I kind of like too is I'm going to go Jaylen Hertz throws an interception At minus 154. I kind of thought that was great too I just think in case he does have to end up playing catch up even though expect the game to be low scoring You know, he's going to rely on having to throw the ball and going up against this defense I think it's possible for him to throw one Do you want to make that a half unit for the thing or just a general bet that you like for this weekend? A half unit for the game. Okay, perfect. So, uh, we're leaning on Hertz here. I like that Okay, so Jaylen Hertz interception. You said that was minus 130 Minus 154 minus 154. Okay, perfect. Alrighty, there we go. All right, Brandon. What do you got for this game? Eagles versus bucks Yeah, overall I have this game closer than the spread to I have the spread at 6.2 points So I I like the call um with the eagles. I would love the over if not for the weather So I'm not going to go so far as to bet the under Um, unfortunately, I can't go for the over As a result of the weather if I were looking for a prop and this isn't for the game Leonard for net 58 and a half rushing yards. I take the over there at minus 114 In games where he's played at least half the snaps this season Averaging 64.1 rushing yards if he's healthy if he's able to play he's going to be the guy Um and with the weather being what it is they should lean on him I think he could get uh get over that 58 and a half mark Yeah, the the reports today did definitely get me a bit wary of for net, but I think you know the good thing is If he's an active that that gets pointed So I think betting for net stuff now is fine because he's not going to be active and not play a whole lot He could aggravate the injury, but I think you've got some safety there So like the the house rules do benefit you here with regard to that We did a question or a comment from grim fan any uh prop bets on affiliate upset this weekend This is the the spot where we align grim fan. I know that we uh butt heads on kendrick born But we are in lockstep, baby. Uh go birds on sunday at one Let's move now to the 49ers at the cowboys. It's a three point spread in dallas's favor total is 51 I do a play in this game, uh for our game And that is elie mitchell because when you look at the games where they have played since george kill return With elie mitchell and debil sannuel both being active In those games elie mitchell is at 110 yards from scrimmage per game His rushing plus receiving prop is 110 point or is 91.5 That's very low. So to me. I think that one is another one where he's undervalued So i'm gonna go with elie mitchell over 91 and a half yards since scrimmage at minus 114 as my final unit Four hour three unit game Just think he's undervalued so i'm gonna go with that one. Uh jessica. What about you? What you seeing here for 49ers versus cowboys on sunday afternoon? Yeah, so this game is a little tricky for me because I would lean the niners But it's a popular dog of the week and that's usually not a good thing Looking at the game though. I would lean over in general if I was to make a play on this game Now when it comes to the props here I Like what you're saying these are all just kind of ones that stick out to me I'm not going to play them in our game But some ones that stick out to me where the rushing props were a diva sannuel at over 28 and a half yards at minus 118 Uh just because he's so great on his legs. We've we've seen that and when we're looking at receiving yards I also really like george kittle at over 50 and a half at minus 110 because jimmy g he just loves to throw in the slot and Kittle has been super successful, especially as of late and when you look at the cowboys weakness That's when it comes to their defense. That's where they Struggle so I feel like kittle could have a really explosive game in this matchup and One more to that stick out to me was a mari cooper over 57 and a half at minus 110 just because san francisco's ranked 16th in past dboa and As good as their defense is there will be times where dak is going to be able to light up And I feel like cooper will be the one to shine Yeah, a lot of the times when dalis is disappointed so far this year from an output perspective It's been because they've blown people out and they're probably not going to blow out san francisco here So I think that the the mari one is interesting cd lamb too Also is kind of intriguing at 62 and a halving both those numbers are very fair with the roles I'd expect them to have for sunday. What about you brandon? What do you see in this game? So, yeah, I also would lean the over it's not a bet for me on you know for for the game here But this this 49ers offense with jimmy garoppolo dbo and and kittle all healthy and playing relevant snaps They've honestly been one of the better offenses in football And then dak press scott in games even without michael gallup who you and I both love jim This offense has been phenomenal as well. So I would lean the over But as for the game itself, I'm actually going to go with something elie mitchell based and that's is over 19 and a half carries minus 114 Projections wise I have mitchell just kind of right on par, but I think that I would bump that up myself He's had 21 carries in each of his two games since returning despite playing between 50 and 60 percent Of the 49ers snaps coming off that knee injury We had seen a snap rate before that creep up to 70 percent and then 86 percent in the two games prior To that knee injury. So even with the snap scaled back the workload hasn't been it's now the playoffs He's now you know three weeks removed from His first game back So, uh, I think that the over 19 and a half is very much in play He's had 20 or he's had 21 carries at least in five straight games And again, that's with kind of his snaps being scaled back. So I really think that um, you know He's gonna go over he's gonna get his 20. He's gonna get his you know 25 carries that's just how they want to use him And even if they're trailing which isn't really what the the spread suggests This still this team still wants to run the ball even when trailing so and my numbers do expect this game to be competitive Which is which does bode well for him hitting the over there. He had like 27 carries in a game a couple times ago So, uh, 19 and a half very fair number for elie. So we are all in on elie mitchell in this game Let's move now to the sunday night game and start things off with a haiku from bethany peters Najee and his thumb To play him or not to play Or just d yante. So so bethany got it right We got a full haiku out of this one here. Najee Harris obviously a full practice on friday And he is questionable to play in this game. So brandon We didn't talk a lot about naji on the thursday show because I don't want to talk about this offense But just any thoughts for you on naji and any any read for you on this game in general Uh bethany, i'm sorry No naji for me no d yante either unless we're talking really small slates, but on the sixth game slate I don't want to I get get much exposure if any to this offense should I use cowboys and chiefs or stealers Right, so for me, I'm not going to talk myself into naji or d yante based on how ben rothisberger has been playing over the past four games I mean you got put on the eye or on Uh, the injury report six games ago, but in his past four We've really seen his a dot scale back and this this offense has been horrific since then With his a dot at a 5.7. So I'm kind of out on the stealers. I will say though gym and fairness My numbers also see this a little bit closer Um than the spread, but I would also not bet that do it. No do it. You coward. Do it. Do it I'm not doing it. You can do it No, I'm good Okay. All right, Jessica. What about you? Will you take the sealers plus 12 and a half? Uh, or are we all out? Uh, I'm out on this one. I could just I I highlighted a couple props that stood out to me But again just where I was like if you want to throw some money on this game These ones stood out to me. But other than that, um, no, I this game is kind of a stay away from me Okay, so what are you seeing is uh as being valuable here Yeah, so if you were to throw some money on this game something that stood out to me was uh First touchdown and money line parlay with Clyde Edwards Allaire in Kansas City at plus six six fifty You know, the stealers the ranked 27th and rush dboa So we clearly know that they're gonna have a strong run game in this matchup And then of course, you know, Kansas City should have no issues winning this game either Uh, this just happened recently. Uh, ch got ruled out. Uh, we did so that was very recent. Um, Would you transition that to daryl williams though? Absolutely. Okay, perfect. Okay. I like it. Yes. Yes Sorry, I didn't I didn't catch no that just happens just happened. You're good. Um, yeah, so even even with him I thought he's he's been a great backup and I still feel like that's a good possibility to have happen And uh, another one first half total over 23 and a half at minus 110 I still feel like, you know, even the last time they faced each other Kansas City put up three touchdowns before the half And then so and then the stealers I think they also got one So just saying it's it's possible that the stealers are gonna I mean that the Kansas City is gonna come out hot They're gonna put a bunch of points up on the board and then second half They're just gonna come out and run the ball I agree I think that if you're looking at the total in this game, you should do the first half total because 23 and a half to me is a better number than 46 and a half given the way Exactly what you said honestly where they could just kind of throttle things down the second half That you might concern with the full game total first half not as much, you know You can't really do that. So I think that that's the way to play things there on the subject of Daryl Williams His rushing plus receiving artist prop is now up. It is 82 and a half. I like that I think the over there is very in play. I was trying to figure out my head because I didn't think of the up yet Just because ceh's rolled out so recently I was thinking 90 is it was the number where I would cut it off So 82 and a half that's a good amount of cushion. I think that that is a good number here I think that they Rightfully believe he's their best option in the backfield right now. So I think that that is a good number and one that I would take Let's move now to monday night football cardinals versus the rams We'll have a full stream on monday to break down that game as well 4 o'clock on the fandal youtube twitch facebook and twitter pages But right now the spread is rams minus three and a half total is 49 and a half jessica What are you seeing in this game? Uh, the third time we have seen rams versus cardinals this year Yeah, so if I was to make a play, I'm honestly leaning the under at 49 and a half in this game at minus 110 These are both two Two teams that are playing extremely well We know what their strengths are offensively and then of course, you know, look at their defense both of them The rams they have a top five defense in dboa when it comes to the pass and the rush They're actually fifth in rush six than pass and then you look at arizona And they're top six in defense in dboa with the rush at six than the pass at fifth So, uh, I feel like both of these teams as good as their offenses are their defenses are Just as comparable and they're gonna be it's gonna be a tough matchup and it's prime time And that's why I like it. So this will be My official of my last half unit play for our game that we have going on for the under Okay, so rams cardinals under I'm writing this down on my sheets so I can e-track because otherwise I'll forget uh under 49 and a half Minus 110 half unit. Okay, perfect. So jessica is going at the under in this game Brandon, what about you? What do you see here for rams versus cardinals? Yeah, so I got one unit left for uh, the game here and I'm going to put that on the cardinals plus three and a half These teams split the season series And you know, the cardinals are without deandre hopkins But they're offense without him since zachards his role increased It's about it even uh with the rams since odell beckham had his role increase The matthew stafford hate as I talked about on the heat check with ugm yesterday has gone a bit too far But even with that I have this game really close. It's basically a pickum for me So I can get three and a half points there. Um, I take it even at three but three and a half Uh, it really has me on arizona to get the points here. Yeah, my numbers have this one at 1.3 points The rams minus 1.3. I know you said yours were a bit more towards the cardinals as well. So Uh, if I were to bet the spread here it would be the the cardinals plus three and a half I couldn't do it because like there's like a mental block and I knew it was at four at one point Like I can't mentally get over that hump of like oh used to be four you can still get a three and a half It's like, uh, you know mental roadblock there. So well, you'll let's you'll like this one too. Um, okay Tyler Higby to score plus 240. I don't like that. His role has actually been really good I know it has been really good. I too much money. I've lost in Tyler Higby this year of DFS a lot a lot A lot it's bad. I'm not a fan. He's not invited to the hot tub that I don't have Because of Tyler Higby But plus 240 is a fair number It is but I'm mad about it That's it is I also like Blake jar went a plus 700, but I didn't want to recommend that one too heavily So I just did now, you know, I know I figured I'd at least give my Higby take here Okay, fair enough. I would say if we're trying to make a speculative play right now Uh, james connor has not practiced yet. I think there is a legitimate chance that he does not go Therefore, I would have interest in chase eddons at plus 200 for any time touchdown because That is one where he's gonna play. He's been practicing. He said he'll play et cetera, et cetera So I feel good that he's gonna go if he does go and connor does not That number is gonna look ridiculous. Like I think he'd be plus 110 Just because he doesn't get a ton of um Ton of red zone working when connor's out. I think he's like actually 47% anyway Two to one is a good number. So I would take that now, you know, if connor plays whatever, you know I think that that's a fair gamble to take. Uh, grim fan is wondering if I like higby or bornemore I've used higby in a dfs lineup in my life. Therefore, I like it more like just, you know, that's uh, that that's the way that one goes That's all we got here. Jessica any final thoughts for you on wild card weekend, which should be a pretty fun weekend of football Man, uh, now I feel like we hit all the major points. I'm just excited to see how these games turn out But it's been fun. I normally don't do prop bets. So it was really fun being able to dive into this and uh, make some, uh Hopefully win some, uh, win some bets against you guys. I know I'm pretty uh, pretty far up about this. I think it should be a pretty fun competition. Uh, and We'll see, you know, I think that uh, probably plan on having this next week again, too So hopefully we'll get to talk to you then. Uh, check out jessica on twitter at gridiron and wine Find brand on twitter at kadula 13 brand any final thoughts for you before I send people off to enjoy their football and this weekend Uh, don't play the stealers in dfs. Don't play the stealers in dfs I love it. That is all that we have here for today. I am also on twitter at jimsonas j i m s a n n e s big Thank you to joy aflac our video producer for running the video side of things here today Thank you joy as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in and good luck to you with your bets Good luck to you with your dfs lineups. Enjoy the football We'll talk to you once again on monday to get you said for rams versus cardinals. This has been the fan dual live q&a