 But as far as the country goes, we're up and we're positive on the year price-wise. So at when mortgage rates started coming up, if that started raising rates, you came up with a video, gonna crash for some 2008, all that stuff. What do you think now after it's been here? I'm making more offers today than ever in my life. Why? So your argument is a fine argument. My argument is... Coming to you from sunny South Florida with one of the most incredible human beings on the planet, Mr. Patrick Betts. David, what's up, man? Not much. It's good to have you here. Yeah, thanks for... You like the beach in Alabama? Hey, yeah. It's beautiful, right? Let's talk about this and realize it. I was gonna ask you what your first image or word that comes into mind when you hear the word Alabama. I went to Alabama to go to Panama City when I was at Fort Campbell, Kentucky. Yes, and we were going to Caldwell Villa and Spinnaker's and we stopped by a waffle house and the waitress was looking at me because I was in the army and she says, where are you from? I said, I'm from Iran. She says, you're from Iran? I said, I'm from Iran. So what are you doing here in the States? I said, I'm a spy. I'm here to spy on your country and take all the stuff back. No, but that's my memory. A waffle house in Alabama in 1997, 1998. Go to party in Panama City. Yeah. Was it about the beach? No, it was just out in the middle of nowhere. Out in the middle of nowhere, literally nowhere. Yeah, did you know that we hadn't just... I did, yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Florida beaches extend in Alabama to 40 miles. So that's where I grew up. I sell Gulf front condos mostly. So we have a population of like 20,000, but we have about 8 million visitors every year. So it's a high tourist, you know, really good market. Really? Yeah. What's comparable to the city you're in? So if you were to say it's kind of like Panama City, it's kind of like... They all have their own different personalities. Okay. They're all having... Is it a nightlife or is it like tourism? No. It's a family. Okay, family. It's kind of in between. It's not like retirement, but it's not totally young. They have a couple of clubs and stuff, but it's not very... Nothing crazy. It's a club for being... I can always tell my buddy when I got here yesterday, I couldn't imagine growing up here. Yeah. But they have a lot of good churches here. It's what they call them clubs. So we also have blue angels right there. They fly right out of Pensacola, Florida. Yeah, the blue angels. We had a miss there. I mean, we had a miss. I saw you on the bus yesterday. It was great. Kids loved it. One of my sons, I'm like, would you want to be a pilot? Dad, I have no desire to want to be a pilot. You know that. He just sitting on the board out of his mind. Another kid is excited. It's funny how at an early age, you can see if there's any interest for something or not at all. Mm-hmm. I've seen you on the boat. I saw you with your kids. You feel like you're just living a dream? This was all part of the plan. You know, when I was 23 years old and I went through a bad breakup and I asked myself if your daughter came home with the 23-year-old version of you today, would you be okay with her marrying him? And I said, no, I wouldn't be okay with that. So well, then you got to get to work because we got to increase our options. Because a 23-year-old me didn't have a lot of options that were somebody I can pick and choose. It was kind of like nightlife girls. You know, that kind of audience I was a part of. But that was a different audience. And then one day I'm like, you know what? What do I want to do when I have a family? I have kids. Yeah, when I'm 30, 35, 40, you know, just Americans, they like to do this sleepovers. I'm not a fan of that. So I said, if we're going to do this sleepover stuff, they're going to only sleep over at the house. So we got to have a good argument for everybody to come to the house. It's okay. Let's give them the opportunity and the lifestyle. And then I am the one as a kid. I always wanted a big family. I'm from a small family. I have one first cousin. I have three uncles and one aunt, biological, but they collectively had one kid. Four of them combined, only had one kid. And so I always wanted a big family. And I used to think about, you know, later on when the kids get married and you're doing Christmas and they have to debate between coming to our side of the family or the in-law side of the family. I want the grandkids to choose to want to be with this grandpa. So I've got to give them a good argument, good lifestyle for us to come together. This was all a dream. And now, you know, it's a reality, which is great. Yeah. Yeah. Now, I was telling people, I'm going down here to interview Patrick, interview Patrick, and I was so surprised about 50% of the people that follow me that told that to didn't know you were. Right? That makes sense though, no? Kind of. Kind of. You know, but just for the people watching, nothing crazy, no long elaborate deal. But just introduce yourself to the people watching just my following because I didn't realize it. I figured everybody knew you were. That's crazy. You think about that. You think about everybody knows everybody. But even a statistic came out worldwide, the most recognized phase worldwide is the rock. And you know what the percentage is? 56%, 57%. You know, when you're in the YouTube world, you think everybody knows, but it's a very big world. No, border-raising Iran lived there 10 years. When Khomeini died six weeks after he died, he escaped and went to Germany. I lived at a refugee camp in Germany for a couple years. Came to the States when I was 12 years old, went to Glendale, California. I joined the Army right afterwards, went to the 101st Airborne Division. Air assault got out. Wanted to be a bodybuilder. I was kind of wanting to follow Arnold's footsteps. Even went to the same community college. He went to Santa Monica Community College and then I realized what it would take to be Mr. Olympia. The amount of things I need to put in my body on 6'5", I had to be a 350-400-pound frame during the off-season. I said, no, folks who win Mr. Olympia nowadays are around 5'9", 5'10", 5'11". Met a girl who worked in the financial industry, Morgan, standing dean with her. She introduced me to Morgan. I started working there the day before 9-11. Got my series 766, 3126 Life and Health. After Morgan went to Trans America, was there for about seven and a half years. They're very well for myself. October of 19th, started my own insurance company with 66 agents. We grew it today. We licensed 43,000 agents from 49 states. We have a few hundred offices nationwide. We just sold the company a year ago to an integrity marketing group Silver Lake. It was a beautiful exit, multi-multi-9 figure exit. And then at the same time, accidentally I started a YouTube channel. We grew to what it is today. Total by 10, and we have shy of 6 million subscribers and some views on it. How do you accidentally start a YouTube channel? It was literally accidental because I was creating content privately for my sales guys. And one day, Mario says, Pat, why don't we go public? And to me, I've always been the private guy where my friends never knew who I was dating until I made it public. So if I wanted to kind of make it public, I chose to make it public. But I didn't want people in my business. So the more and more times change, you realize we're all naked today. So you either pivot and adjust to it. And if you don't, somebody else is going to tell your story. So I said, okay, let's start creating content. We tested it for about two years. One video a week, every single week for two years, we put the video up. Hot gas or train? It's just a two minute video. It's called two minutes for Pat. It's a motivational type of video. And then two years later, you know, we kind of buckled down and I said, let's get a little bit more focused. I went to an event in San Diego. The guy said, pick one word to create content around guy named Michael Hyatt. And he was a CEO of a former CEO of Thomas Nelson. I want to say very smart guy. So we said capitalism, entrepreneurship. And that became my word, entrepreneurship. And then we started creating content. And then that niche later on we went away. And so you can do that for how long? First video we uploaded was December or November of 2012. And then I couldn't tell you when we got to a half a million subs. It was a slow two years, two years later, we probably had a thousand or two thousand subscribers, very slow. And then we got to the niche. Then we went to a hundred thousand subs and then quarter million, a half a million. And then at a half a million, I took a break. I'd like 460,000 subs. We took a break. And I said, I got to find out what I'm going to be doing. I took a three month break. Nothing, not one video, no content, nothing, a pure break. And then three months later, I said, we're going to do this. We got to do this the right way. I'm going to go to the media company. So value attainment became the name. I thought we came up with the name. There was already a name called value attainment. It was a publicly traded company in Germany. I reached out to the CEO of Derb. I asked to sell the domain to us. He said, not at the time. And it was two years later. He sold a changes company's name to value tease. I bought the domain. That became a company. And then today we have a consulting firm that's grown rapidly. We have a product development site at our headquarters. Manect is now a product which experts like yourself get to get paid based on a, if somebody texts you and DMs you on Instagram, you're responding back. You're like, why would I respond back to not make it any money? And the other people are like only 10% of the time people respond back. So they launch Manect. That allows you to pay for tax, pay for video communication and FaceTime with somebody and you pay by the minute. And then this here right here is a comedy club. We do live podcasts here. We have a cigar lounge in the back. We're about to launch. Did you see it? Yeah, cigar lounge in the back. And yeah, we got this, this whole thing accidentally turned into what it is today. When Steve Jobs and Wozniak started Apple. I interviewed Wozniak. One of the books we made as our book of the month prior to the interview with Wozniak in 2011 was a book called Accidental Millionaire. You couldn't find this book. It was hard to find. It was a book where the author, I think like a bunch of former employees of Apple got together to bash Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak. This is why he got fired because he's not a good leader. You know, this Apple is another company. And then later on the next book that came out was about Facebook and that was called the Accidental Millionaire. So the Accidental Millionaire was about Apple. Accidental Millionaire is about Zuck. I'm assuming there's going to be an Accidental Trillionaire here until next few years. I don't know what that's going to be about. Probably love it. Yeah, we have a good idea. So that's the way we're going. So you sold completely out of there? Yeah, I sold 100%. I'm still operating the company. And a majority of it was cash. A portion is left in the company that I'm helping right now to grow. You got a record break in April. You still got equity there. I do. Small percentage. But I'm one of the bigger shareholders of the bigger company. Yes. But yeah, we had a record break in April. It's growing. We're having a lot of fun there. But it's the next phase of the company. Yeah. And so the media company that's value taking, what is it when you say media company, that can mean a lot of different things? What exactly is the business? Good question. Yeah, so we're building an OTT, which we'll be doing movies. We'll be doing shows. We'll be recruiting talent. We'll have our own Johnny Carson. We'll have our own TV shows. We'll have our own SNL model. We'll do all of that. Wow. However, the niche that we're going to have is the follow-on niche. So if you think about Disney, you think the audience are kids, for the most part, right? You think about Nickelodeon kids. So the niche for kids is two brands. Nickelodeon, Disney, predominantly dominated by Disney. Okay. If you think about sports, if you were to say, what is the brand media company that we think about sports? You would think about the ESPN. And second is going to be probably Fox Sports, let's just say. But it's not, you know, they're dominated market place for the ESPN. If I were to tell you sci-fi, you know, all that stuff, you may go to Avengers, DC Comics, Star Wars. You're going to go that way. If I told you, you know, authors who write and make movies about law, you know, what happens with lawyers and all this stuff, there's going to be a niche. For us, we want to buy movies, docs, everything related to business. So Pursuit of Happiness, we would buy that movie if it was coming out today. Founder, the story of, with Michael Keaton's story of Ray Kroc, we would buy that today. And one documentary, that's us. Anything having to do with business, capitalist, entrepreneurship, like you know, the documentary they did, The Men Who Built America, that documentary that's a very big documentary for capitalism, we would bid for that documentary today and we will put it on our OTT. So yeah, that's what we're going to be doing the next 20 to 40 years. I think there's a big threat right now where the hero-making machine is confusing. I don't know if you have kids. You have a three-year-old. You have a three-year-old. Okay, boy or girl, congratulations. So you know, when you and I were growing up, we knew who the hero was. How old are you by the way? What year were you born? I'm 41. You're 41. Okay, I'm 44. So we're three years apart. Same age. Okay. So you're an 81 baby. Yeah. 80, 81 baby. Okay. Who was your hero in high school? Who's our hero in high school? If you were to say who's your hero, who would you say? Like outside of my dad's house. Outside of parents. You know, I'm not mom, you're dad. I'm talking like somebody that's a celebrity. I want to be like Mike. Yeah, Hulk Hogan. Hulk Hogan. Michael Jordan. Michael Jordan. Yeah, those guys. You know, in business, maybe we looked at some of these life of the rich and famous who made their money, business, real estate at the time. It could probably be Trump. Even Tupac would talk about Trump. Crank politics is part of the deal. So you know, so to us it's like, man, you know, I used to walk down from Verdugo, Wilson Junior High School, and I would ask my friends, I'll say, you have a choice between being Michael Jordan, the greatest basketball player in the world, Michael Jackson, the greatest performer in the world. You have a choice between being a president or being the richest man in the world. Who do you want to be? And we would talk. I want to be this. I want to be that. This dream that we have today, kids are confused. Today's heroes are not as clear as they once were. So you and I didn't grow up being confused. They're being confused today. So I think when you have an era like that, certain people have the audacity to rise up and want to fight against some of these bullying that's taking place. Our reasoning for wanting to build our media company is strictly that. I have four kids. I want to do my part. And I think there's a lot of other people that also want to do that. That's why we chose to, at this point in the game, my life. I can stop doing nothing and purely based on my investments that I make. I have an incredible life today. But this next move isn't because I need another $200 million or I need another car or I need another disc. I'm not creating YouTube because I'm trying to be famous or I want people to stop by and say, can I take a selfie with you? I don't have a need for that. It's purely I want my guys that are grown up, these kids to realize what the true hero is. And you fight to be a great hero that's respected by others and not get confused by the mess that media selling us today. Yeah. Yeah. And that was my next question. Like obviously you don't have to do this. You don't have to be here. You don't have to do anything. Why? Why continue? You could live a nice life. I could too. A lot of people ask me is it ego? Is it this? Is it that? Is it selfies? Is it all this stuff? But it's not for me either. It's to help people and to continue trying to better the better the world. For, you know, younger people speaking of heroes and people that, you know, someone to look up to and stuff like that. What do you tell kids that are confused right now? You know, what's what's your message to kids who may be confused about, you know, who their hero is or, you know, kids that are coming out of high school who want to be business people want to be millionaires and do the right thing and stuff like that. What do you tell? What do you, what's your thoughts on in today's world? You know, kids trying to get into the space. When you say kids, what age are you talking about? I'm talking right now. I'm talking right out of high school. Right at the point where they're ready to go. Yeah. Right. They're ready to go do something. So first of all, my first message would be to the parents get involved because parents are not as involved as they need to be. If you're not, you're going to lose your kids and it's going to hurt a lot. When I mean hurt a lot, you could lose your kids for two decades. What do you mean by losing my kids? Are they going to go to jail? Are they, no, you don't lose your kids physically because they go to jail or they're hanging out with gangsters or drugs. It's all I'm talking about. When you lose your kids to an ideology, you don't have that relationship you once had with them. And if you lose them for 20 years, let's just say you lose them for two decades. You lose them from 16 years old to 36. If you lose them from 16 years old to 36, let's say you're 40. You're losing them from 40 years old to 60 years old. That is a very wide gap at the right era to not lose them because 40 to 60 can still go do stuff with them. Your energy is still higher. To show back up at 60, we'll let you see at that time that common sense and they're kind of going through. Somebody got a promotion over them, even though they were working hard, but that person got a promotion because of whatever criteria they had to reach with an ESG score and DEI score. So they would kind of try to meet a certain criteria. Like, wait a minute, I outworked that person. That person's always late. They always bitch. They always complain. In fact, they even talk smack behind the boss's back. I'm doing my part. I have the degree. I went in above and beyond and took that course. I go on Udemy. I'm learning how to get better. What's going on here? And then the reality sets in and they're like, okay, this philosophy ain't working. I'm starting to realize I worked this hard and I paid this much of his poor taxes. Why? Streets are still messed up. The bridge is still messed up. The city's not safe. San Francisco, they're shown right now. New York Times and article came out where bosses are telling their employees in San Francisco, when you come to work, don't wear jewelry and your rings when you come to work. Can you imagine in America, the greatest country in the world, a supervisor and a boss has to tell their employees, don't wear your watch and rings in jewelry when you come to work. This is America. What do you mean don't wear your watch and your jewelry when you come to work? A $300 million building in San Francisco right now, Commercial Real Estate is standing alone. No one's in there. No one's renting. It's empty. This is a $300 million building on the main street that you want to be on in San Fran. It's probably going to end up trading at $80 million if they're lucky because nobody wants to buy a building over there. Commercial Real Estate is taking a hit. So again, if I go to that direction with parents, I would first say parents do not lose your kids. Second to the kids, the one thing about kids, yesterday I'm having a conversation with my niece. This girl is, at the grade she's in, she's the smartest out of all of us and she's in eighth grade, really proud of her. She was number one at the top of her class, eighth grade, at a very good school. She'll be number one in ninth grade as well. She's been invited to go to this private university, very well-known university, you know who it is, we all know who it is. And for privacy reason, I won't disclose it to go be a lawyer and they're recruiting kids at all these universities and she was recommended by the top of the school so she's going to go to this place. And she's having this conversation. I'm a little concerned this is too weak and you know, should I send them? Should I not? What do I do? What if my roommates are this? What are my roommates? That's a listen. You have the right values and principles in your head where you know how to process issues and you know the difference between right and wrong. You and I knew the difference between right and wrong at a very early age that our parents didn't need to tell us. If you and I chose to do the wrong thing because we chose to do the wrong thing and we knew, right? One of the best things my mom ever told me and my dad would tell me is, listen, you may lie to me, you may get away without telling me what you did wrong. God's always watching you. That phrase, whether you believe in God or not, parents, if you tell your kids, God's watching when you screw up, your kids are going to be thinking about it. If you tell them, oh, trust me, I thought about it God knows how many times I'm like, shit, I'm about to do this, but he's watching. I'm not going to do it. My mom's not going to know. My dad's not going to know. So I think for kids, choose to better heroes. Take your time with suddenly buying into someone's ideology. Look at the life people have and from there make a decision of who you want to go. I was watching Jesus Revolution last night with the kids. Somebody recommended us watch this movie, one of my employees at the office. I'm like, what's this movie about? I didn't realize it was by Greg Laurie. And I don't know if you know Greg Laurie. He's out of LA. He's done big things, Calvary Chapel, all this other stuff. And we're watching it. Here's a kid. They're doing drugs. They're doing this. They're doing that. They're doing this. They're part of the hippie phase. And what about my son says that? Why do you? Why do you think so many people don't like hippies? I said, who doesn't like hippies? I don't know. Every book I read, they say bad things about hippies. I said, what you think about your father? Okay. I pause the movie. I say, you're 45 years old. You have a 16 year old daughter who starts hanging out with these hippies. Because hangs out with these hippies, your daughter starts doing drugs. And all of a sudden, she does literally too much drugs. She dies at 18 years old. If she didn't hang out with those hippies, your daughter would still be with you. How do you feel about hippies? And so I wouldn't like them. I said, many people have these stories. Now, does this mean this happened every day and all the time? No. But that pain of losing your kid to a community that was making them feel like this is the right thing to do. This is happiness. This is freedom. It's liberating. Let's do this. One bad decision away from ruining your life. So in today's work. Oh my, and you know, today probably more accessible and available than before. But at least when you and I were... We're going to fit in all day. Yeah. But we should see when you and I party and we did dumb things. I don't know if you did. I definitely did when I was younger. Thank God there was no Instagram and Snapchat and TikTok because if those videos ever came about, you'd be seeing me on the stage. You're like, what is this guy doing? Right? They're not free of that today. Right. You do something dumb today. You went to a job 20 years from now. That picture is going to be on social media. So I would tell the kids to use some of your common sense. And if you're able to say no to your friends today about they're all doing dumb things. Long term, they're all going to look at you as the leader short term. They'll make fun of your short term. They'll criticize you. Long term, you'll have the meeting where they'll come up to you and they'll say, you know that one time when we were trying to get you to snow cold and you said no and we all did it. You know that one time about ecstasy you didn't do? You know that we were all smoking leader. You weren't doing it yet. Behind closed doors, we talk a lot of shit about you. This is now we're all 31 years old. Behind closed doors, we all respect you because you were able to control. We could not. Yeah. But it takes 15 years for you to realize you were a leader. If you can do that future looks bright for you. Right. You talked about on a podcast which I've seen you do a couple of different other people's podcasts. Is that something you're doing now? Not necessarily. I mean just like yourself when you reach out the team will filter it out and we'll kind of look at who it is. And you know, if we see the content that you know who you are kind of matches who we are and we can bring value and there's some kind of a opportunity there. We'll entertain it but there are certain podcasts that you're not going to say no to. Yeah. Joe calls and says you're going to be on the podcast. You're not going to be like, let me think about it, right? But no, you know, my time today I don't need to go on a podcast to get eyeballs. Yeah. We have a distribution channel that we're getting plenty of eyeballs but I love a good interview and I love talking to people that have questions that I didn't think about before that makes me work. And if you can make me work and I leave your interview and I'm doing homework and research on model I'm like, interesting. I never thought about it. What a great question. That's what I'm looking at with some of these other podcasters I said. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, whether it was a podcast interview he said we're in for a 20 year war. Right? Yeah. I remember saying that. Absolutely. What did you mean by that? A philosophical, you know, ideology. This is going to be a war of ideas and the dark side is going to be willing to, you know, go at it in ways you may not be willing to go to. They're willing to go places you may not want to go to, you know. They're willing to break the rules and the law and play dirty that your values and principles may not want you to go there. But when you're playing this kind of a dirty war that we're going to be going through the next 10, 20, 30 years there are certain things that got commented today on one of the posts and out other. I love what he said. He says, Pat, whatever happened to the five years of you saying you try to control yourself from not talking about politics. Okay. He's absolutely right. And I said, what a great question. I said, well, if you impose in French force your ideas, your philosophies on my kids and divide them against me, you just, you just woke up the wrong side. That's where I don't play. I'm a very friendly guy. I like a good joke. I like good conversations. I like a good game of domino spades. Let's sit down talk. Watch a good debate, a good movie, a good sporting event. But you crossed that line. I'm not that friendly. And I'm standing out. No, not in the household. We are just feel like they're threatening. They're knocking on the door. But it is happening. I want to when I say household, we're not divided right now. We're not like, I mean, as far as he has this ideology in turn. Yes, I know what you have. Yes, absolutely. It has definitely entered. And the questions kids are asking today, my 11 year old and my nine year old are different questions than they were asking three years ago. And I'm not one that makes them feel uncomfortable. I talk about everything with my kids and I mean everything at a young age. I think you have to nowadays, you know, parents who are like, I'm uncomfortable to talk to my kid about sex. Don't worry if you don't talk about it, others will and they'll confuse your kids. Start talking about sex earlier. I'm comfortable to talk to them about drugs. What if this start talking about all of the drugs early on? I'm comfortable to talk about porn and talk about it with your kids early on. So yeah, I'm taking a complete different strategy. But I think, you know, this is a season where the man upstairs is looking for some leaders to stand up. And you know, it's going to be a, like I said, the war part. It's going to be a very interesting next 20 years. You know, you know what? Well, people, you don't want to fight. It's the guys that have no desire to fight. There are guys that are just itching for a fight. When you go to a bar, you know, there's a group that's just like drunk and it's like, what'd you say? Yeah, I'm not trying to fight you. I just want to come here and talk to you. You're good, good to talk to you. You know, what do you like? You like the Lakers? You like this? No, a very cool, awesome book, right? And then there's a guy that's just coming to mind his own business. He just wants to get food. He just kind of wants to be left alone and enjoy his company. And you push him once. He's called second time, third time, fourth time. And it eventually is like, look at me. It's just a lie. I'm telling you, don't do this. Then this is a lifelong mission. You wake up those types of people. They typically don't wake up just for a season or two. They're going to be around for you. They're not going to stop. They're relentless. So I know the type. Yeah. I've got a ton more questions, but I know we're kind of living a long time. I want to dive into the real estate market with you under your thoughts and so on. But what did I see? I'll tell you what I see when I get your take on it. I kind of feel like there's this, I'm going to call it a perfect storm happening in the group right now because I read an article where Zonda did a survey that 98% of millennials want to be homeowners. And then the one reason was to build their own equity and stuff. Someone else was in among several other reasons. So it made me start to think sort of both curious. So I googled and I said, what's the median age of a first-time home buyer? And in 2021, it was 33. All right, last year was 36. So I thought, okay, we've got 33 and 36 year olds and that's millennials. That's the median age of a first-time home buyer. We have 72 million in America 98% want to be a homeowner. And so I said, okay, 33 and 36. So what's going on 33 years ago? So I went to 50 year birth rates and you see a really, I have a chart. If you see a really big spike in 1991, so there was a baby boomers, which was a crazy spike and it came down and it stayed down through the ages and in 90, good, and it stays like that. And so we have this year more 33 year olds, people turning 33 in the US than we've had probably in our life, let's just say, in a long, long time. And the 33 year olds will be 35 next year, 36 the next year, the next batch of 33 year olds are coming. These people want to own houses. Okay, so right now as we speak, and here's something that people don't realize because of all the negative media and everything, because you hear about prices down, right? Especially year over year. But what no one talks about is the fact that there are a few people that are talking about it, but prices bottomed out about 30 to 60 days ago. And here in Fort Waterdale, prices never went down to the European girl, not even close. But as far as the country goes, we're up and we're positive on the year price wise, the second. Nobody's really talking about that. I'm trying to spread that message a little bit and talk about how the market is. So you got a record amount of 33 year olds entering the market. You've got no inventory. We have less inventory. You know, 1980s, there were always two to three million houses for sale, okay? Right now we have under a million and we take out the pending deals were 500,000. 500,000 active listings, comparing that to the 80s where it was two to three million the whole decade. We have less inventory than we had in 2021. No new listings are coming up because nobody wants to sell their house because we're sitting with some interest rates. Builders slow down. So we have this, in my mind, we have historic pins of demand to buy houses with no inventory and a lot of them we're seeing multiple offers though. NAR came out and said that we went from 2.7 offers per listing to 3.2 in the last third days. And a lot of, so we're having activity, but it's because of this applying demand issue. But as we move forward, buyers are sitting on the fence with an interest rate of around 6.3, something like that. As inflation continues to go down, which way would you say inflation is going? Up or down? I think at this point it's probably going to level out if not for even a bit more. Yeah. So 30 year fix follows inflation, right? Follows inflation. So we have a pretty good idea that that inch mortgage rates are going to continue to ease down. We've got more demand than we've ever seen. And we have no inventory. I'm calling this the perfect storm because I believe that when mortgage rates do take down to whatever that magic number is going to be, whether it's 5.9 or 5.7 or whatever it is, and that's everybody say, okay, now's the time. It's just going to be a flood. We're not going to have any houses to sell. It's going to make prices shoot up. I think we're going to see double digit price year or year price increase. It's already positive on year. So when mortgage rates started coming off, if that started raising rates, you came up with the video, going to crash force in 2008, all that stuff. What do you think now after it's paid here? My position hasn't changed. The biggest thing that I said if you watch that video is if they get involved like they did and start doing quantitative easing, these banks are going to sit there and say, we don't have to worry about it. You're protecting us again. You notice what Jamie Diamond just did with Chase coming into First Republic, buying them out, and then having the U.S. government get involved to buy the junk paper that they have. And you realize how much manipulation that is where I know I'm doing business and it's mathematically impossible for me to fail at a time like this when the governments will want to bail me out. It doesn't mean we're making the right choices. It just means they keep delaying the problem. You and I may not pay for it today. It may be five years, 10 years, 20 years down the line, but you cannot keep going into that the way we keep going into that. So I know as a real trainer, a loan officer, you seem very confident where you're at right now. What you haven't yet experienced is unemployment that's coming next. When unemployment comes and people can't make their mortgage payments, you know what happens after that. Commercial real estate today, it's predicted that one and a half trillion dollars will default. Prices will drop 40% in commercial real estate. Specifically, A, class A buildings, class B buildings, the industrial buildings, they're going to be fine. Matter of fact, their prices have gone up because people are buying less of the traditional business, you know, units that we were buying before today. They want more industrial. The Amazons, the warehouse model, that's going to be doing fine. And the directions we're going, they're not going to be effective. Commercial is going to take a hit. The more we experience these layoffs, you're then going to experience that. Because now as a buyer, I'm going to sit there and say, babe, we have an income for, we have had no income for 30 minutes. Cash is depleting. What do we do now? Do we keep the 4%? Do we sit there and say, you know, we're going to be fine or do you go into foreclosure? Do you not make the payment? Do we sell it? If we do sell it, then you're flooded with options and opportunities. Then what happens to the marketplace? So as much as, you know, in certain markets, you're not going to experience that. Like the one I'm in, you're not going to experience that here. Miami is already experiencing a hit. Okay. Because you know how Miami's market price has went up tremendously the last toward three years. Sales is down. It's very easy as a realtor and a loan officer to only use the data that favorites you to say, you know, 2.7 to, you know, 3. this many offers as a real, I'm a guy that was a stock broker, a series seven guy. I know how to sell something to a client only talking about the data that I can present for the person. We're sales people. I get that. But at the same time, you have to kind of sit there and talk about the realities of it. That yes, if you choose to buy today, if I'm making offers today, you're saying offers are up. Of course offers would be up. Why? I've been inventory. And not only the inventory, I've been making a bunch of aggressive offers. I'm making more offers today than ever in my life. Why? I'm saying, hey, how much you want for this thing? 3.5 dollars. I'll pay you 1.9 million. You're buying real estate? Commercial, not residential. I'm more into commercial right now. I think there's a lot of opportunities. Just right here, if I told you how many foreclosures, you know, the commercial property, just a block away from here is 52,000 square feet. It traded in 2008 for 13 and a half million dollars. Okay. In 2008, 15 years, we were 13 and a half million dollars. You can buy that right now for 8 million bucks. It's a block away from here. Okay. There's a hockey spot up here. They're asking for 18 million bucks. Three years ago, 15 to 18 million bucks. You can probably pick up that spot right now for 67 million dollars. There's a building down on Cypress Creek that's a 300,000 square feet at 89 million bucks three years ago. It's about to close right now for 46 million dollars. It's from 89 million dollars. So these types of things are out there. The residential one, I think people haven't run out of savings yet. When you run out of savings and that savings starts depleting lower and lower and lower and lower and lower when people panic and then there's going to be the fire is selling. When the fire is selling comes, you know, you'll sit there and say, oh my God, why is that guy selling that for them? Why is this guy selling this for this much? Now, by the way, I hope it doesn't happen. When I say like, I don't benefit from residential properties taking hits. It's not like I'm planning for residential to take hit because I'm going to go by a 600 unit this or I'm going to go by, I'm not in that space. You will not see me being in the residential game. Okay. It's not my game. So if it does take a hit or if it doesn't take a hit, I don't have the selfish like for example, in baseball cards, I think baseball cards are going to take a hit. So am I going to participate in that? Of course I that baseball cards take a massive hit the next year or two years. I'm going to probably deploy 230 million bucks into the baseball card. So I know that residential if it does or if it does it, it does literally nothing to me to my network for my go. Yeah. I just feel the audience needs to be prepared for it. Yeah. I feel like I agree with your commercial is definitely going to take a hit on the residential for four closures. They there was a study done. There's Americans on Americans on average have 58% equity in their own average. So if they become delinquent, they'll just sell it, make whatever. I don't see a way of four closures happening. And with the with a massive amount of 30 study done by 50 years. I think it was a and how in the U.S. It was real very recent. 58% is a package for about the 42% loans of value on average just because price is one of so much that's the drive back. Your your your we have to assume that it's going to stay like that. Okay. We have to assume that it's going to stay like that with it staying up. And you know, when we give a blanket statement like that with numbers, I will fully respect that. If it's a demo, if it's a certain area, if it's a certain zip, if it's a certain city, you know, Greenwich, the first time in 20 years that the what do you call it, the real estate value trial, they have not experienced that for a minute. Now, why is that? So, you know, if you're living in a place where the policies favor, you know, like right now, give you an idea, the way we just moved out of the state of Florida. Okay. And he's been interviewed. Why did you move out of the Florida? So I can't be there because it doesn't match my values and principles with my son, my daughter, whatever, you know, the transition that his kid went through and they're going through that battle with him and his ex-wife. Okay. I understand why he left Florida. Well, 351,000 people left. It was a plus minus first time ever. California had a net to growth to their population since 1851 when California barely got started. Why? People are not moving to California. Yeah. People are moving to California, but a lot more people are moving out than moving in. So if I'm going to sit there and bank on buying something in certain areas in California, I have to be a little bit careful. So again, my statement is we can't make a blanket statement across the board, right? Like right now, be careful the stock market is going to crash. Yeah, but you got certain things you can buy right now that you're still going to be fine with today, right? Hey, you know, buy blue chip stocks in the NBA. Zion Williamson looked like he put on a lot of weight. Buy as many Zion Williamson cars right now. He's played fewer games than Greg Odin did and we heard what happened with that. He was out of the NBA and he's not so disciplined to want to come back and want to compete and getting better shape. So hey, you have to know now he may be different than John Morant then this player than that player. All I'm saying is one statement and a stat that we can sharing pick doesn't apply across the board to everything. Yeah. Locally here. We're seeing so many homes that were on sale. Lord 100,000 Lord 200,000. There was a flyer that came to our house the other year. I understand that, but there's a there's a difference between prices being up. Yesterday flyer came in a house on the corner of the water. Okay. 5 bedroom 4 bath. They're asking 5.9 million a year ago. They're now asking 3.9 million. It's on the intercoastal from 5.9 to 3.9. Why did they lower by 2 million? What are they? Because they were asking too much. What did they buy? What they buy? Which you just you just answer your question though. Most people think most people are asking too much today. Yeah. Yeah. Most people are asking too much. And closed prices are asking price. Sure. I mean, even if you go with comp and you use the comps from a year ago, use the comps from two years ago, you know, versus use the comps today. You know, like even from the moment rates started climbing, Silicon Valley went through what it went through. The guys that came in here that have a half a billion dollars worth of room estate themselves and they're saying, Hey, can we go 4060 on this deal with you? You know, I get a call from my realtor and say, so what happened? Did they finish up that deal? No, they can't get the cash. Why can't they get the cash? They just don't have the cash. So I thought these guys were crushing it. Well, they are, but they don't have the cash to close. So today, as you're going through a lot of these deals, our savings, what we had collectively as a nation a year ago on Q1 of 2022, we had around 2.1 trillion dollars of cash. Yeah. Every quarter that thing went down 300 billion dollars. So we went from 2.1 trillion to 1.8 trillion to 1.5. That's collective savings in America like 1.5 trillion. And it's still not down yet. If that thing keeps decreasing lower and lower, people then start making panic sales. Yeah. We're not there yet. Yeah. You know, we are not there yet. The expectation for unemployment numbers to take the hit is one Q3 not Q2. We may see some of it the last the next two months, but God willing, none of that stuff happens because if unemployment goes high, what happens to crime? That goes high. Who's affected by it? I got four kids, man. I do not want to see unemployment go high. Yeah. I want my wife to drop off the kids and us not have to worry about anything. When you see some of the crime that's happening right now, what causes that? Financial unemployment, got to pay the bills. You're scared. You're worried. What do you do? So nobody is sitting here screaming, we want the end of the world. If I'm single and if I have no kids, if I'm not married and I make money on selling fear, go at it. You can accuse me of that. In an ideal world, I want nothing to happen to unemployment. I will say this to you though, and I don't know whether you'll agree with this or not. I don't know if 100% financing is a good idea. I don't know if 80% financing is a good idea. I don't know if raising now loans from 30 years to 40 years is a good idea, which they just approved a month ago. You saw this, this is your work. So I don't know if it's good for us to go from 40 to 50, because all we're doing is we're making another argument to sell a house to somebody that really shouldn't buy the house. And so what happens when we sell homes to people that shouldn't buy the house? They're not ready to buy that house. They haven't shown a sign of responsibility to do it. So for me, I think it is better to keep the rates out around 6%. We've had it for 6% for 40 years. Yeah, you see the history. When people are saying, well, you know, I can't believe there's no 2.8%. If buyers want to get 2.8%, that 128-month economic expansion, that may have been one of the worst things we did to America to go 12 years or 11 years. Obviously, it was 10 years and then COVID happened and then it continued. One of the worst things we did because we spoiled Americans, we need to go back to the 6%. I would like to see us go back more to you need a 20% out payment, but you know, if we go to that route, prices are going to drop because not a lot of people can do that. Yeah, yeah. Do you think it's more complicated than just a simple supply and demand, right? Because there's no inventory, right? And there's a lot of demand. I guess the biggest question for the residential side, residential. I have an argument for you. 2008, there was 4 million. Yup. All right, properties for sale. Where does the inventory come from? The grates, the oak supply. I got a question for you, though. Yeah. Okay, so there was no inventory. So what are you going to do? You're going to bully me and force me to pay 30% higher? Okay, then the question becomes, where does the income increase come from? My income hasn't increased every 20 years. Yeah. Go look at the median income. Well, you know, 50, yeah, we've gone from 55 to 63 to whatever the numbers they'll show. Well, some markets were at 69. That's still not a big enough of a difference for me to be able to match up to buy a house where a guy's asking you to pay $1.2 million for a house that should be 750. Yeah. How do you expect me to pay for that? So you can increase it as much as you want. But I'm not making that kind of money for me to afford it. So the argument for inventory is a argument I hear from a lot of realtors and a lot of LOs. I totally get it. I understand. Well, your argument would be stronger if you can show me that this is up 40 points. But at the same time, income is also up 40 points. Income is also up where you can say, okay, you're making more money now. Guess what? You can afford to buy it. Makes sense. But we don't have that argument. This can't go up and this stays flat and you want me to go buy a house. Yeah. You put me in a bad situation. I agree there's an affordability issue. That's why there's a lot of buyers on the side of the line. There's a lot of buyers in there that want to buy a house. They can't. So I totally get that. Now, just to piggyback off that, somebody wants me to pay $30,000 more, right? If they have somebody sitting there that has money to pay $30,000 more, then that's okay. Sell it to them. I'm not going to pay you the $30,000. Well, that's what's happening. If the prices, it's worthless, they might want to pay you. So if prices are, say, $750, income and house are trying to sell for 1.2, that's all he can get. That's all a buyer shows up and is willing to pay. I say to the guy that can't afford to buy it, don't buy it. Don't buy it. It's not a responsible decision you make. I say, don't buy it. I did a story in 2016, Denver Post. They came, they interviewed me in my house and they're at this house. I'm like, hey, so you buy this house, now I'm renting this house. Why? Many different reasons. Tell us your reasons. I give all my reasons why I'm renting. I'm nimble. I can move. You can't predict what direction real estate is going right now. The American dream is a home ownership. The American dream to me is entrepreneurship and equity. Go build a business. Increase your income. If you increase your income later on, you can go buy that house that you want, if not more. And my wife and I sat down in 2009 when we had just gotten married three months later and I told ourselves that if you're expecting me to buy a big house, I'm not doing it. A hundred percent of my life savings is going into a company I'm starting. And we're going to see what's going to happen later on. I'm going to buy it. We started up with an apartment complex at the summit in Woodland Nails. We were tight. I was driving in Acadia and everything went into the business to build equity and then eventually that crew, we moved into a nicer apartment, nicer house. And then Sino did a nicer house in the Cramo estate lane and then we bought the house in the corner where Barry Bond's agent was living right next to me and there was a cul-de-sac house, beautiful home in the community. We bought 21 homes in this gated community. Then we bought another house in Dallas when we moved to Plano and then we moved into another house and then we bought this house that we have here. But the point is, do not fall for the temptation of buying a house today. I don't know if you're going to cut this or not, if you're going to leave this. Do not buy a house and fall for the temptation of being forced to buy something you cannot afford. It is a mistake. Don't buy something you cannot afford today. Trust me. I'm telling you this from peace of mind. If you're forced to buy something you can't afford and all of a sudden something happened to your job and you only have six months of reserves or 12 months of reserves, there comes the argument, there comes the divorce, there comes three kids being raised because mommy and daddy couldn't handle finances together. There's already 50 different reasons to get a divorce. Marriage is already hard enough. If you get a divorce for real reasons, you can't get along with all this other stuff, I get it. But don't put yourself in a financial situation where you're getting a divorce for two months. Yeah. That's my... So your argument is a fine argument. My argument is pump the brakes. And I totally agree. And I don't have a dog in the fire. I was in the business in 2008 and it was easy to sell properties of 50% less. I don't care if prices go up, they're inside the way it does happen. Well, professionals are going to do fine. The guys in the world that are professionals, you're not going to feel it. Bottom 60% is going to get filtered out. Okay. The other is going to come in. The guys that are the newer ones, the rookie ones. The performance and the cream of the crops are going to go to the top. And then the cycle goes. Insurance is very hard. Real estate is very hard. Mortgage is very hard. Yeah. The guys at the top, they're not going away. We're going to do this again sometime. I look forward to it. I look forward to it. Thank you. You're a great person. Appreciate you. I want to learn. Learn.