 Hi, my name's Leon Rowe, Commentsy Trader and Trading Coach at Trading180.com and welcome to this week's Forrest in Gold, Fundamental and Technical Supply and Demand Analysis. If you're new to watching my videos on my channel and discovered me through YouTube or any other platform, I will welcome to you and if you are returning, watcher and subscriber are equally welcome to you and please don't forget to like, subscribe and share if you find the content that I provide useful as it's a free way to support the channel and get the quality content out to those that may appreciate it, right? So the week ahead, 29th of January, so coming up in the Ophorex world. So next week in the United States, eyes will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, non-farm payrolls, wage metrics and the unemployment rate, so a lot going on in the U.S., also Jolt's job openings, ISM manufacturing and services, PMI, Michigan consumer sentiment and factory orders will also will all catch attention and really that's important because it will determine really and all those data points will determine whether the Federal Reserve are likely to cut interest rates in March or whether they will tend to hold interest rates until maybe a bit later on, which will definitely affect the dollar and I think really the key news is going to be non-farm payrolls and so let's see what happens there. So globally market focus will shift to Bank of England monetary policy decisions and Q4 GDP growth rates for the Euro area, additionally inflation figures for Australia and the Euro area will be closely watched, finally manufacturing PMIs from China, Switzerland and Canada and jobless rates for Japan and the Euro area will round out the weeks, so a very very busy week from a news data perspective and so again really the themes are right now whether central banks are, which central bank is likely to cut first in comparison to which one is likely to hold last basically or hold the longest and so yeah very busy week this week, so should be some volatility after a lack of volatility in the last week, so this week I think the market is just positioning itself for now some explosive potential moves and so before I get into the week's forex analysis just wanted to go over really a trade analysis breakdown on the new Australian New Zealand dollar, so this is a trade I took profit on earlier this week and really the entry was around this 10734 and really it was kind of based on higher timeframe demand zone so if we zoom out a little bit and we had the basically a demand zone from here fundamentally I want it to be a buyer of the Australian dollar over the New Zealand dollar anyway and we'd kind of come back down to this this demand zone really understanding kind of it sounds obvious highs and lows but you really wanted to look to trade or I do anyway a trade around understanding you know where premiums and discounts right and so I thought that the Australian dollar was a discount fundamentally against the New Zealand dollar and took a trade pretty much at the 10736 is three sevens with about a 17 pips stop and originally I took half profits off at a one to one and as prices went slightly higher I think maybe around here I decided to take the rest of the profit off as I thought that the the market is likely to kind of move in a bit of an auction bit of a range so that was a profitable trade this week so quick break down and that level was also being used not only as demand right we made higher highs higher lows but also as well it acted as support and resistance in the past if you go down to something a lower timeframe you'll be able to see it a bit more clearly so this is a 12 hour chart you go support their resistance resistance and so you've got some again some support there and then this whole area of demand so whenever you have a wide zone of demand it's best to kind of break down the area also as well this was a bit of a stop hunt as well for those traders who understand the stop hunts or in a private mentoring group there was a stop hunt right below there so although there wasn't great news out for the Australian dollar on the day that was the trade and pretty much worked out okay so not as much as I kind of wanted but I was probably looking at somewhere around these highs originally but I think I was right in the short term anyway to take some profits off at these highs as again fundamentally things have changed slightly made change slightly for the for the New Zealand dollar and there's a pretty bit more strength in coming for the New Zealand dollar anyways let's get into now the week ahead and starting off on the the dollar index and this is a weighted dollar index calculation so it's not the DXY or the USDX this is weighted equally weighted and if you want the calculation there's a link to a video in the top right hand side of the screen right now watch that video and click on that link and you'll be able to get the equally weighted calculations to put in your trading view chart so looking at the dollar overall again this week is really the prices traders would kind of describe it it's going sideways but it's really just price being accepted in terms of an auction buyers and sellers are in agreement that the value of the dollar you know is worth you know between that high and that low right but we did get some news which was quite decent and took economists by surprise and it says US GDP grew 3.3% last quarter capping unexpectedly strong years so years expansion defied the session calls as inflation called so how many doom and gloomers have you watched on social media calling for you know the US dollar to you know collapse and go into some sort of you know disappear and things like that the US dollar is going absolutely nowhere and you know whether you agree with it or not dollars still here for the foreseeable future and again a lot of traders have been caught out you know in the wrong side of the market expecting the dollar to devalue so again you know it's had an unexpectedly strong year and so the US economy's fourth quarter growth trounced forecasts as cooling inflation fueled consumer spending capping a surprisingly strong year at defied recession calls and so the significance really of this is that the Federal Reserve are likely to hold rates for longer simply because there's less urgency to actually cut rates cutting rates typically happens in the part of the economic cycle where you're heading into a recession and although yes there is you know the economy is contracting it's not contracting as much as you know the market is expecting which is actually a positive so for now I think the dollar is still looking like a buy on pullbacks but again that does depend upon what happens this week with all the news that is coming out but my bias if the data supports the narrative I will continue to look for buying opportunities on the dollar so dollar strengthening at the moment so that's brilliant for anyone who's going long dollar so I'm looking for any kind of pullback you know to to kind of come back down and if the again price comes down but the data is supporting dollar buys then that's going to be the first area to look for a buy on the dollar in terms of not necessarily looking at buying the dollar the dollar index but you're looking at this as confluence that you look for price to come down into this area here and then looking for dollar buys on you know actual dollar pairs depending on obviously the the the quote currency that you want to buy against right and so that's really the the plan of action but again I think this week is going to be a very interesting week and after a week of a few days quite a few days matter of fact of you know this this tight price action we should get some some moves and some directional moves anyways so moving on to the dollar yen the dollar yen again the same thing this week it's really prices have really only moved considering uh what's that 215 pips you know over the past however many days so you think about one two three four five six seven eight trading days prices stayed within this this tight range so not much trading opportunity but um in terms of a higher time frame trading opportunity lower time frame genetic kind of you know scalp and get in and out but um overall the dollar yen um I think the yen actually is starting to look like a a buy and it says here that Japan bond yields bank shares jump on boj bank of Japan rate hike bets now the bank of Japan are the only central bank that are looking to high crates and I say the only central bank but the ones in the like the g10 I think maybe g8 that are looking to high crates whereas everyone else is on a cutting cycle so that by default really should um end up supporting the yen overall now the timing is the is the issue right and so and also as well the data needs to support the uh the buying if that doesn't come to fruition then it looks like the dollar is likely to probably maybe go a slightly higher but it's going to be very difficult for any um for for the dollar to I think go past the 151 152 because even if the yen hold rates for the rest of the year if the dollar starts to cut rates which I think they are we're in that political cycle then I do think that um there is still downside to be had on this pair so upside looks a bit more limited downside looks actually quite nice when we zoom out and the potentials down to maybe the one free zero area over the over the course of this year so these are the levels you know that you're looking towards in terms of uh buying and selling the dollar or the or the yen at the moment moving on to the dollar CAD and the dollar CAD again a really tight range in terms of price action price again on this pair moved about has only moved around about 127 pips over the past again seven eight nine days so not great for anyone who's looking for some movement but again this week uh we've all the data that's coming out we could see either a pullback into you know one of these zones uh either to the upside or to the downside of course it really does depend upon what happens with the uh the with the data and also as well I think personally I'm looking for more of a uh if we get a bit more of a pullback depending obviously what the data says but um if as long as the the the federal reserve aren't too dovish and the rate cuts are being kicked into the future into the further into the future then I think I'm still going to look for some long trades on the US dollar I think they're in a better place than the and the Canadian dollar at the moment so let's see what happens there uh looking at the pound dollar and again pound dollar uh really not going anywhere this week so lots of positioning going on in the market again over the past week or so you've only seen about 120 four-pip moves so yeah um again nothing's really different from um what we kind of were talking about last week either of these zones could potentially be a breakout because there is in fact um some Bank of England news coming out this week and announcements from um Andrew Bailey but um also as well uh recently the pound has been just surging anyway and it says traders pair rate cut bets after PMI beats so um the uh market's priced in fewer than a hundred basis points on Bank of England cuts in 2024 and composite PMI expected the rows in January costs jumped and um really you know it says here is a quote strong PMI numbers from the UK which despite all the fretting about the risk of the UK slipping into recession suggests the economic outlook is looking quite bright still said Stuart Cole chief macroeconomist at equity capital in London robust growth and strengthening price pressures are not a scenario the Bank of England will want to be loosening policy into and that's basically what's happening where for example the US dollar we spoke about the US dollar earlier um in terms of GDP you know growing more than expected so it's the same basically logic that applies to the the pound as well right so if the pound is seen avoiding a recession then you should see some strength but again when it comes to two strong currencies um then you know prices likely to do something like this and this isn't a pair I'm really kind of interested in the moment but if you are um you know do want to buy one or the other then you're looking at really these as our supply zone up at the top or a demand zone around here you can kind of extend the demand zone down to around here you've also got a bit of support and resistance in this area quite accurate support and resistance same thing around here as well so these are some nice levels again if it breaks out beyond that though you do have some supply zones right here and right here as well so some supply zones in this area so again are you looking to buy the dollar you're looking for short trades you're looking to buy the pounds then you're looking for moves back down into these demand zone areas preferably with some sort of support and resistance as some confluence that you can see right here as well where you've got nice some nice confluence there within those are within that demand zone here so that's really what you're looking for for the pound dollar pound yen interesting very interesting I think the pound again is looking like it could strengthen but it's a really um a high that hasn't really been touched since 2015 so this could actually be seen as a decent short in opportunity technically it's a really nice short I do like it but fundamentally I think if the Bank of England do come out dovish then that's likely to happen the pound is probably due to pull back anyway but also as well against the yen if the yen does get its acting gear in terms of data supporting the rate hike narrative sooner then in fact this is just going to be a sell anyway regardless of what the pound does in the over the medium term because I think the market has to kind of start to price in now rate hikes for the yen and this is actually a nice spot for to look for any kind of short trades looking for the euro dollar and the euro dollar at the moment again not really much movement over the euro dollar prices have only moved 110 120 pips over the past again few maybe week or week and a half so not much movement on that euro dollar so waiting for it to you know waiting for this week to to really kind of be the decider in terms of the news that is potentially coming out I say potentially but it is coming out and the potential is whether it goes to the upside or to the downside and some nice levels within that demand zone there also as well you do have a decent area of supply and resistance within that supply zone so let's see what happens here but with regards to euro my bias really is to the downside continued downside it says here that traders see deeper quicker cuts from ECB money markets point to more than 50 basis points of easing by june and german bonds rally with two-year yield down as much as 10 basis points so this is here traders amped up bets on the extent of interest yeah on the extent of interest rate cuts expected from the european central bank saying president christine lagarde gave more emphasis to the economic challenges faced by the block than to inflation so again both are looked at in terms of inflation and GDP but she's obviously they've obviously interpreted that she's more worried about GDP so ultimately when we look at the the euro the euro facing way more issues than the than the US at the moment it's still still a bit puzzling as to why the market would be pricing in rate cuts for the US dollar more than sooner than they would for Europe but at the same time there's an opportunity to buy the other dollar if those rate cuts do get priced out so i think any pullbacks into this area here there's going to be nice setting opportunities there or even back basically back up to this area here the 110s to 10950s so that's really where my bias is for now of course it does depend upon the data again you can see lots of data out this week you know from GDP growth rate for the euro jolts so depending on what happens this week is going to be definitely either a major turning point right in for the for the euro fortunes on a weaker dollar or we're going to see continuation to the downside either way if my bias is to buy the dollar i'm going to have to wait for a pullback anyway so i'm looking to you know to to to buy the dollar at you know these lows i've got to wait for a bit of a bargain price so for me i'm looking at those types of pullbacks but if there is a reason to buy the euro or sell the dollar then of course any pullbacks into that 107 maybe even the 108 the top of this demand zone would be decent to look for a long trade moving on to the euro yen and i think the euro yen i think the yen is a is again against the euro i think eventually this year we should see yen strength and so i do think that these these these zones will be very interesting if prices do come back up to them i'm interested in this higher area the 163 11 area to the 164 30 as a as a long as a sorry a long trade for the for the for the yen not for the euro not looking to buy the euro at all this year until the data really kind of supports buying the euro um so my bias is really to the short side so i'm waiting for even prices to come up to here and then looking for shorts or looking for shorts in this area around here so let's see what happens but if you do want to be a buyer of the euro of course any pullbacks down into that demand zone that should be very nice for a buy that's a nice technical level as well in terms of uh support resistance in conjunction with some sort of fresh area of demand uh moving on to the euro pound and again my bias was really trying to look for short trades on this price is just haven't pulled back enough so um still looking for overall bearishness on this pair to buy the the the pound i think the pound is in a much better place in terms of uh economically and also as well from a monetary policy perspective they're looking to the market is pricing in later rate cuts and this is the reason why you're seeing this move to the downside it's just really how to kind of get in on this area so uh changing that to demand so looking to buy the other pound you're looking for short trades in the nearest supply zone it's going to be right there so really a pullback into this area here and decided there i think and also as well you do have some support and resistance within that area so again going down into like the lower time frame you can see that area touch very very nice and in fact there could be a stop hunt above that area that would be even nicer um there was a stop hunt above there and also an unfair auction that used to be filled around here so lots of reasons to look for short trades in and around this this round number the 0.86 area and even just above that would be quite nice for a short trade uh zooming back out and moving on to the uh where are we the Aussie dollar now the Aussie dollar again um i think this hasn't even gone triple digits i think it's might have only got yes 70 pips it's only been traveled uh within this auction about 70 pips so no volatility is totally dried up last week but um again this week could be uh very interesting in terms of directions um depending on what comes out so i think the path of these resistance at the moment is a tough one to to kind of tell because both i'm a buyer with a dollar at the moment as well as my bias is to buy the Australian dollar so this is not necessarily a pair that i'm looking to trade personally but if you are then you're really probably anywhere from now any pull back into that demand zone or even a fresher area of demand just below that just about the 65 cent area below would be decent for a buy trade and buying the Australian dollar against the US dollar and uh any trades to the short side would be at this supply zone right here so those are really the options and then finally but not least you've got gold and gold again really being driven by the the the strength for the dollar at the moment as well as the interest rate cutting cycle so it really does depend upon whether you're a dollar bull or dollar bear at the moment if you're a dollar bull then you're looking for short trades if you're a dollar bear then you're looking for really like long trades around this area of of demand so yeah it's um gold at the moment isn't necessarily reacting but again we should have some decent volatility coming into the this week with all the news data that we've got coming out so that's it for this week i hope you enjoyed the analysis again don't forget to like subscribe to the channel and i will see you all in the next video take care