 This is Covering the Spread, part of the FanDuel podcast network. With the Conference Championships matchups all set now, we have look ahead lines for all four potential matchups in Super Bowl 58 at FanDuel Sportsbook, we have course the Super Bowl Futures, MVP Futures, MVP Futures, the whole lot at now posted over at FanDuel Sportsbook. And our job for today is to dig through those hypothetical lines, outline where we see that in the futures market by talking to Ryan Williams and getting his read on where things stand right now. This is Covering the Spread right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network and FanDuel Research. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for FanDuel Research, joined here as I am every Tuesday by Ryan Williams. Check him out on Twitter at ryanalexander underscore W Ryan. It's been fun talking futures with you this entire year, but this is the last shot we get because ain't no more futures after the conference championships. So a bit bittersweet for me. How are you doing today? Yeah, it's bittersweet bittersweet for me too, Jim. It's been a fun year. We talked a lot of things into fruition, I feel like it was unfortunate that we couldn't see Josh Allen in the bill's brain supreme as we have been kind of hammering the drum for them all all year long in the futures. We're still looking nice as I, you know, one of my future tickets of the bills, one in the Super Bowl. I had to have to chop that off the block, but it's been such a fun year. Hopefully the covering the spread family has same way and so excited to, you know, have been able to chat with you and hopefully we can get one more good weekend of conference championships under our belt. Yeah, I had the bills to win the AFC at seven to one. So that was that was a bit sad there. But I guess that my like emotional hedge there, Ryan, is that I'm never going to get too sad about having one more week to watch Patrick Mahomes. I know that Josh Allen is very fun, but like Mahomes is a delight. And he showed why again on Sunday and that game was really fun. So even though I lost my bills ticket, it was hard to be that upset about it. Now, the problem that I have is I currently have Super Bowl futures on all on three of the four teams left and the one team I don't have is the cheese. So Mahomes could really, really take me to the cleaners here. And I'm I would not be shocked if it happens. We're going to break down why I have that. Why I've got some futures out there for other teams right now. We'll take a look at the market with where things stand to get you ready for your final chance to place futures bets for this year. But first, a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast. 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Visit MDGambleyHealth.org in Maryland, 1-800-GAMBLER.net in West Virginia and call 1-800-522-4700 in Wyoming. Now, Ryan, let's take one final look here at the Super Bowl Futures where right now at FanDuel Sportsbook, the Niners are plus 1-45. The Ravens are shortened to plus 1-75. They were plus 1-90 yesterday. Chiefs have lengthened as a result of two plus 4-40 and the Lions are plus 700. So any of those numbers stand out to you, Ryan, as being values entering this final weekend? Yeah, I mean, I hate to bring it up in that light because you just talked about getting taken to the cleaners, but the Chiefs know four and a half to one. Let's ride with them. I mean, when you're talking about them having to go into Baltimore, I believe this is Baltimore's first hosting of an AFC Conference Championship game. And Lamar is just so fun. I mean, we talked about him. We had future lines on him for MVP. Felt great about that. Obviously, with that coming to fruition here very soon. And I think they're just such a fun team. They're going to get Mark Andrews back. But with Kansas City, and this is kind of what we talked about, like even when they were kind of reeling, heading into the post-season. It's like these guys who've just been there before so many times. You know, and it's like it's a dynasty now, Jim. I mean, if people didn't want to say that before, like your sixth straight AFC Conference Championship, him and Tom Brady have just been running run shot on this conference for years and years and years over a decade. And it's like you just got to give credit where credit's due. And all the pressure is on Baltimore to be able to win this game. I know that people will say it's on Kansas City, but like when the team's been there before, like they have to come out in a home, in this home game. And shout out to this defense. This is a different defense that they're going to be facing than the Buffalo Bills, especially with all those linebacker issues that the Bills were facing. Like this is one of the best front sevens in all the football left. So I think it will be tough. But if you're going to give me four and a half to one on this guy, who's just, you know, he continues to go out there and prove it every year. That's the chance that I'm willing to take. And again, on the other side, the thing that we've talked about is that the Kansas City defense has just been so great this year. You know, and they they have the ability, you know, they have the personnel granted that, you know, some of these injuries don't don't come to fruition all week. But if they can, you know, get Willie Gay in there and keep some of these guys to keep a spy on Lamar, kind of in a similar fashion to what they do with Josh Allen. Josh Allen, he's Josh Allen. Lamar is going to get his. But if you can, you know, lessen that a little bit, they do have the personnel to be able to do that. And this is why I felt, you know, a strong belief in Kansas City being able to be there at the end of the year, because their defense, combined with the fact that Mahomes is able to make these magical moments happen on offense is something that, you know, I want to continue to battle. Yeah. And that's a big part of why I am worried about my positions as it stands to the Super Bowl futures is because of the defense for the chiefs. But also, Mahomes has had two of his best games this year, the past two weeks. And that's what's scary to me is you could kind of line that up narratively, where, OK, you get Kelsey some time off with that with that week where they sat on week 18, you get Rishi Rice, more comfortable in this offense. You could see that building to being a legit fear. So when you look at this matchup at the Ravens coming up on Sunday, the chiefs will just have more answers than what the Texans had because they can run the football. And that's been a big shift for them. It's important for them to be able to run the ball. And they've been able to do so. So I talked yesterday about how I liked the Ravens and the Niners, Moneyline Parley, and the value for that is mostly gone as it's down to even money to parlay those two together right now. So I don't think I'd be there. But part of the reason why I was concerned even before it moved was I am betting against Mahomes. I'm betting against an offense that seems to be on the rise and I'm betting against an offense that can win if the Ravens decide, OK, we're going to take out Kelsey or OK, we're going to take out Rishi Rice. And that to me is a big concern. So even though I I, the chiefs is being overvalued right now, I'm very worried about what they could do to those expectations because I respect Mahomes, Andy Reid and this defense so much. Yeah, it's just incredible. And then you look at the numbers with Patrick Mahomes, you know, being, you know, a three point dog or more in his career. And he just continues to be able to buck that trend. You love that there's, you know, a lot of a lot of rest that they had been going into coming into the playoffs. So, you know, the guys are getting right in a valdez gambling, you know, and guys like that are going to continue to step up for them. And then I think that makes it easier on this team. I think, you know, I was looking at just kind of some numbers like in the history and I believe Lamar Jackson, the number stand as one in three against the spread versus Patrick Mahomes in the four games that they played in two and two straight up. So, you know, there is some struggles there that have been there in the past. But I think, you know, they're hosting the home playoff game, getting Mark Andrews back. I think that does help them in some capacity. It's also shocking they've played each other only four times. I think that's the biggest number that stood out to me. Like we've seen like five playoff means between Bills and Cheese and they've only played each other four times total. Like that to me is upsetting. We need more of this. So I want future matchups. Like I don't want to take away from Mahomes versus Allen Mahomes, there's Burrow stuff like that. But like I would like more of this in the future, if at all possible. As far as my end, I actually think there's some value in the Niners. I know they're the favorites right now, plus 145. I took them a plus 150 yesterday and I do show value plus 145 as well. My worry is that my model might be a bit too high in them in that matchup. If they were to face the Ravens again, because I'd have the Niners as two point favorites in that game and we saw how that first matchup went. It was not good for the Niners. So I like the Niners. I took them myself. I'm not going to say recommend them because I think my numbers might be a tad bit too high on them compared to the Ravens. If that matchup were to occur. Now, you can bet on that matchup occurring at Bandual Sportsbook. Right now, that is even money to have Ravens versus 49ers as the specific matchup. You can also bet on the actual forecast of team X, B, team Y. Any value for you in those markets right now, Ryan? Yeah, well, if you are on Twitter, if you've kind of followed along with conspiracy theories and things like that of the nature as it relates to the NFL, you know that the favorite and it shows up in the in the market has been the Ravens and San Fran for some time. It has to relate with the colors of the Super Bowl logos and how they've been shaping up the past couple of years with the exact teams being in there. I find that stuff, you know, very interesting. I also find that stuff kind of hard to believe in. But, you know, three three is a trend and I believe we've happened the past two years. And so this will be the third year if it ends up being Baltimore and San Fran. But they're also the two best teams. So it's like, you know, on papers, how can you how can you not bet that? But, you know, I think for me, the hard the hard thing comes in is like it's it's hard. It really is hard for me to see Kansas City losing this game. We just have not seen my homes lose in the spot. So until I can see that, it's hard for me to justify that. So I think for me, it's it's definitely looking like a Kansas City, San Francisco rematch. I really I really am rooting for Detroit and it makes it hard for me to stay because I root for another team in the NFC North that's not that's not the Vikings and not the Packers. So, you know, but it is a it is a good story. Jared Goff, his numbers, every time that we talk about Jared Goff, we talk about is it a dome versus versus an outdoor game? And his numbers like aren't that drastically different than when he, you know, against the spread on the road versus against the spread, you know, in a home game for him, which would be inside. So he also does have the added benefit. The success hasn't really been there, so to speak, but he used to play in this division when he was with the Rams. He's seen this defense multiple times before. So I think there is some merit to that to possibly having success. And they do have so many explosive pieces. The other thing on that side, too, that makes me weary to take any 49ers futures at this point in time is the Debo Samuel News. Like Debo Samuel has been such a difference maker and factor for this team. It's absolutely insane. He actually is leading the teams and targets and receptions when they have a lead gym. So like he's the catalyst for them when they are up ahead. And then also when you look at their numbers, like against the spread with him on the field or with him not on the field or having to leave games early, there is a drastic difference there for this team. And we kind of saw that almost come to fruition last week. I mean, if Jordan Love doesn't go breath far on us and try to sling it across the field, like we could be having a different narrative about this team. And they clearly were not prepared to be able to handle a team like that. And I think the Lions are just as well coached on the other side from an offensive standpoint, the way that Ben Johnson has this offense kind of going like they're definitely going to steam up some things. So that's what makes me worried about the San Francisco 49ers. So right now I currently look at the 240 for Kansas City and San Fran, definitely as the favorite. But if you're taking a long shot there, like Kansas City and the Lions at eight to one, super enticing to me. And then we talked about that, like, you know, then they go back to being in a dome and like how fun is that game going to be? Like if we do get the Lions against a patch of my homes there, definitely some fun stuff that could be happening from an offensive standpoint. And to golf's benefit, it is only three mile per hour wins right now in San Francisco. So that's not a dome, but it's as close as you can get effectively to a controlled environment. And I think the benefits him, it also does benefit Brock Purdy, just based on the struggles he had in the rain this past weekend. So I think, honestly, we're going to see a more fun football game, which is what I selfishly do want to see there is is more fun. So we want to keep that wind speed down. It's anti-clarif at all possible. Again, three miles per hour right now for that. Now, you alluded to a potential matchup between the Lions and the Chiefs. And you can actually bet on that potential matchup right now. Fans of Sportsbook, look ahead. Lions are posted for all four hypothetical matchups coming up in Super Bowl 58. So when you look at these look ahead lines, Ryan, any standout to you is being good values right now. Yeah. Well, when you're talking about if it's Chiefs and 49ers and then getting the three, you know, from the homes that are right now at this look headline, like if the if the Chiefs go into Baltimore and, you know, let's say it's a even a close game where they are they, you know, win by, you know, that same number, three or more points on the on the other side there. I think this game definitely changes to less than three, especially if Debo Samuel is more hurt than we think he is. And it's kind of doesn't play in the conference championship that might be questionable to perform or play in the Super Bowl. That that really likes me taking the three points ahead of time there. That that's the one that I really do like the most. I think the Lions would have some merit if they're if their matchup is Baltimore to getting those four and a half points there with it being in a in a dome or inside with the Vegas stadium. So I do like that look look ahead line as well, too. I think the other ones are pretty, you know, kind of spot on on where you'd want to take them. Yeah, I actually show value in the Lions at both hypothetical matchups right now. I don't like them this weekend because of how much I like the Niners. But if they were to advance, I'd feel pretty good about the Lions. Plus four and a half against the Ravens is minus one of five right now. This Lions Chiefs matchup was at three yesterday. It's now three and a half. And I show value on both the point spread and the under. So and those do play pretty well together. So I think I'm kind of hoping we get it would ruin me. I would not be happy financially if we were to get this matchup. But like if I'm looking ahead to trying to find action on Superbowl 58, this would be the best path for me to get there is having Lions versus Chiefs. Because I know that I show value on the Lions. I show value on their money line. I show value on them plus three and a half. I show value on the under 50 and a half. So if I'm looking for Max action on Superbowl 58, that'd be a good matchup. Obviously, I'd rather just win money before then. But, you know, it wouldn't break my heart, at least to have ways to get some action there. So if you're looking to look ahead lines, that's where I feel best is the Lions plus three and a half under 50 and a half for that Chiefs matchup. I think that's the one I would feel most comfortable with as of right now as far as the look ahead lines go. I want to talk about MVP markets, though, because we do Superbowl MVP futures up as well. Lamar Jackson, the favorite right now, plus two 10. Followed by Brock Purdy, plus three 40. Couldn't win regular season MVP. But hey, you know, maybe he could win one in the biggest game of them all. So any value for you in these Superbowl futures right now, Ryan? Yeah, we definitely have the I mean, if we're going to talk about my homes, potentially winning against the Ravens here, then definitely have to look at them for five to one for MVP there. I do think it's interesting. And I actually wrote this up in one of my Fando articles here heading into the postseason about Travis Kelsey, you know, having merit to win the MVP, you know, where she rice has been so heavily involved that it makes it, you know, it is kind of tough to see it not being my homes. But like if Kelsey goes out and he has, you know, a two score or more day, but my homes doesn't throw the ball to anybody else. He doesn't rush it in himself. Like maybe those are the only two touchdowns that they get in the game. And he goes out and has, you know, 150 yards or something crazy like that. Like Travis Kelsey is the best offensive piece on this team and has been for some time, like the guys of Hall of Famer and, you know, no disrespect to Isaiah Pacheco, no disrespect to Richie Rice, but like this is the dude who Patrick Mahomes will be leaning on for the next two games if they are to make the Super Bowl. That's that's just the fact. And they and we saw that come to fruition against the bills, like he was on a six game or whatever touchdown scoring drop. And Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reed made it a point to get this guy involved early and often, especially in a favorable matchup. So I do think that they're, you know, you look at kind of long shots just to have fun with them. And if you're going to give us 80 to one, like on the on the catalyst of the offense outside of Mahomes, like I'm willing to take that. I think the interesting thing for the 49ers to Jim, I just was going to say I am shocked that Christian McCaffrey isn't a little bit closer to Brock Purdy because if there is no Debo Samuel, Debo Samuel is banged up in the way that he's in the way that we think that he is like Christian McCaffrey could go out here and really, you know, especially if it's the I'm sorry, especially if it's the the the Ravens or the Chiefs, like the Chiefs have a better pass defense than they do run defense. So he definitely has some some credence to be to being there. And at five to at five and a half to one, I'm willing to take a shot on that, too. I think that makes total sense. I am also interested in a 49er. It will not surprise you. But when you were talking about Travis Kelsey for those of you watching on Fandall YouTube page or Fandall TV Plus, you'll you'll notice I did not scroll all the way down. So I want to make sure the top name stayed on the screen right above Travis Kelsey is George Kittle at 70 to one. Now, Kittle is going to be the third best option on the Niners at best, you know, probably maybe even behind Debo and IUke. So potentially as low as fifth best option on this team, as far as Super Bowl MVP goes, but we know how valuable he is as a blocker. I can guarantee that we'll get buzz if they wind up in this game. We know what he can do in terms of like blow up games. And he's 70 to one right now to win Super Bowl MVP. I have a really hard time laying off that number just because I know I've been burned so many times by Kittle and DFS when I have not used him. He's been like, OK, four targets, that's four touchdowns for me. And I'm just like thinking back to those moments. He can have these spike games. And I'm I'm pretty intrigued by that. So I think that the process of Kelsey makes a lot of sense. But I'm also interested in George Kittle at 70 to one just because he can have those massive, massive games. And we've seen that a lot recently. So I think that's where I would lean most right now is on Kittle. Seventy to one in large part because I like the Niners, but also because he is objectively a very valuable piece in that offense can do a lot of fun things and is also a stone cold psycho and would probably do something fun that can stir some excitement during that game, too. So I'm leaning towards Kittle personally. I think it's it's a fun one, at least I love that. And it's it's fun to get these, you know, as of now because that number is going to change, especially, you know, it obviously will change if they are the ones in the Super Bowl. That's without saying. Then if Debo Samuel is questionable, ruled out, what have you, that number is going to drastically change. So I think if you are even remotely interested in getting in on some of these, are talking yourselves into who the players are going to be and not being a quarterback, because we know that traditionally it's been a quarterback award to win. But, you know, some of these other guys are fun to dabble on. Yeah. And especially if it's a team whose quarterback is not going to get a ton of credit, regardless. I think that does make the non quarterback MVP futures a bit more enticing as well. That is Ryan Williams. Make sure you check him out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W. Ryan, it's been fun talking futures with you all year long. We'll get you back on here and talk about Super Bowl once it is actually we know the matchups and stuff like that. So we'll talk to you again soon, but it's been fun talking futures with you all year. I appreciate it as always. Oh, likewise, Jim, it's been a pleasure and shout out to again, the covering, the spread community, they make it fun to be able to do this. So I appreciate all the support and we'll catch you on the flip side, Jim. Looking forward to it. That is Ryan Williams again on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W. I'm on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, you can find me on threads at Jim dot Sonnis and you can find fan dual research on Twitter at fan dual research. Want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets across Tuesday. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network.