 Arnold Palmer Invitational coming up this weekend at Bay Hill, which means we've got a really nice field, including John, Rom, and Rory McElroy at the top. Rom has been dominant for months now, McElroy Surging, which sets up kind of instant dynamic here where it may be kind of those two against the world. We're gonna break down our thoughts on Rom, McElroy, roster construction, and just the course in the field in general to get you set for some PGA DFS this week over on FanDual. Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy Podcast. Powered by NumberFire. That's right here on the FanDual Podcast Network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Join here as always by Brandon Gedula. He is the managing editor of NumberFire.com. Brandon, at a pretty big event coming up this week. The Arnold Palmer Invitational, pretty nice field as well. How you doing today? Yeah, I'm fine. I'm just taking a little umbridge perhaps with the comment that John Rom's golfing well because I'd like to read you his finishes in 2022 and you tell me if John Rom is toast. Second, 14th, third, 10th, 21st. You wanna tell me that guy's in good form? I heard 21st, therefore he can't be in good form. That's the logic to me. Everyone? How many wins? Does he have, how many, what's his TWTW rating? The will to win, you know, where is he there? Where's that? Where has he gotten the win juice scale? Yeah, his ball striking, his ball striking's been so good and his short game has just sort of like. You're citing the wrong stats, TWTW or GTFO. Man, John Rom should have like a million wins. So. I mean, he probably will, so I'm not. It's hard to win. It's hard to win as Shane and I already found out this week. It got stolen from him. Why? Why are we doing this right now? Like, I was in a good mood to open the day. Shane Lowry was my win pick last week, which means I have now come very, very close to two separate wins here because Cantley lost in a playoff and then Lowry had a lead for a decent amount Saturday and then Seth Straka is like, no, no, no, no, no, no. We're not doing this here. And I feel like you did that to set me off in the terms of like, not in like anger me, but like throw me off my vision for this podcast so that you can take advantage of me in the Pablo hat. I had a Lowry outright. I was hoping for it. Yeah, but do you care more about your money or my pride in our win picks? The chance of you having to buy me a hat or being able to buy. Buy a hat by yourself. Dozens of hats. But like it's about pride. Like your financials are not publicly disclosed unless you're like, I don't know if like, are you on the NAS? I don't know, whatever, whatever. Your financials are not publicly disclosed. Our win picks are. And like, if I get the Shane Lowry outright, I'm annoying you about that forever. So truly, what's the monetary value of that? Pretty high. I wanted him to win and the rain just came down and Seth Straka came down on it just, and it was extra bad because it was Seth Straka who's someone that we talked about a good bit and. I was not on him last week. No, it was true delight. Anyway, we're going to break down the Arnold Palmer invitation will get you set for this week's event at Bay Hill Club and Lodge. I'll let you know all you need to know for this week. But first a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast. We're on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google podcasts, you name it. You can find us there just by searching for the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. And while you're there, if you like what you hear, leave us a rating interview as well. Of course we have NBA NHL podcast via Tom Vecchio, Austin Swain with USC. I've got NASCAR each Friday as well. So lots of stuff here on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Let's dive in now to the Arnold Palmer invitation at Bay Hill Club and Lodge. It is 7,466 yards and a par 72. And a pretty big factor in looking back at recent events has been wind. It has led to tough scoring conditions in recent years. And it does look like the wind will play a factor again this weekend. It's going to sit around 15 miles per hour for much of the weekend and then also on Friday afternoon. So wind is in play once again this week. So if we can hit scoring conditions, I would put more weight on the recent years where wind has also been a little bit nasty for those. There are 120 golfers in the field. The top 65 plus ties will make the cut after the first two rounds. So wind is a factor this week. We've seen that in the past, Brandon. What stands out to you in terms of stats to emphasize for this week at Bay Hill? Yeah, so at that yardage, it's long even for a par 72. It's about 90, 100 yards longer than your average par 72 on the PGA Tour. That does come with large greens, 7,500 square feet, which is about 125% of the average in my database, which is around 6,000. And those greens are Bermuda. So that's kind of the baseline stuff, just to add to the course info here. But the winning scores at this event have sort of gone up and down, as you mentioned, with some wind, 11 under, 4 under, 12 under, 18 under, 11 under. But realistically, we're not looking at a birdie fast. We're looking at a tougher track, tougher setup. And that generally should shed some of the weaker golfers from the bottom of this field who are able to contend. You can maybe point to last week where the scoring was a tough and set struck a 1. But Shane Lauer was up there. Daniel Berger pretty much almost ran away with that thing. And that field was not nearly as strong as this one. So just keep that in mind with your value plays. I don't want to call this like a major-esque field, because we said that for the Genesis, too. But it's a good field overall. And you kind of want to keep that in mind. But as for the course itself, it makes sense that with a long par 72, driving distance pops is more important. I'm assuming you found that, too. But driving accuracy also is sort of important. So I'm going to roll that up into stroking it off the tee for this week, because if you take a more granular look at where the distance comes from, a lot of it is from long par 3s. So it's not necessarily about just having driver in your hand. Three of those four par 3s, or 215 yards, for the longer VPGA average being around 197 yards. But there are some short to average par 5s in terms of distance. So longer hitters can score well on the par 5s. You're going to need to do that. Get an eagle chance or two, some birdie looks on those par 5s. But again, distance, you don't hit your driver. The longest drivers hit their irons longer as well. So I mean, distance for those long par 3s, I think it's going to be key. But again, stroking it off the tee for me is going to be key. Approach is going to be key for me. And overall, if you look at how this course plays, pretty easy to put here, all things considered. And if you look back at leaderboards, it's often the guys who get game strokes off the tee and with approach. So honestly, I'm always putting ball striking toward the top of the list. This week, I think I might go heavier than almost ever before and just try to find guys who really stripe it, who can get themselves some chances to make birdies wherever they exist, but also guys who can get up and down. So my key stats for this week, stroking approach as always, stroking it off the tee, stroking it around the green, bogey avoidance, and a little bit of course history sprinkled in because this is an invite only with the wind you mentioned. You can look at maybe wind splits, but if you've played here enough, you've played in these conditions. So I think that course history has a little bit more appeal this week than it does most weeks on the PGA tour. Yes, I want to go back to what you were talking about with the distance versus off the tee in terms of like accuracy mattering. If you go back to last year, I just look at the top 15 finishers where they ranked for the full season in different driving stats. So I have distance, accuracy, off the tee and good drive rate. So last year, the median ranking for the top 15 golfers in driving distance for the full season was 58.5, accuracy 102.5, good drive rate 116, stroking off the tee was 37. So higher than it is at like most courses in part because it was like a good field. Like that's going to play a role in there for sure. But like if you look at it relative to distance, I think that that does stand out because you had guys like Mathis Patrick who is good off the tee but not long. He was in that top 15. You have Keegan Bradley who is like better than he is long. Chris Kirk is similar in that respect. And then Corey Connors finished really well, same kind of thing where they're not like the longest guys but they're pretty good in general off the tee. So I think that's why to me it was pretty easy actually to decide to go with stroking off the tee versus distance and having the anecdotal stuff you talked about the longer part three is I think really helps solidify that as being the correct route for me. Yeah, and one thing I don't know maybe I just sort of hear this because I've been listening for it a lot but you like there's a difference between not being a long hitter and like being actively and like prohibitively short and a lot of those guys you named they're maybe not the longest. You're like versus Mathis Patrick. Like there's a difference. Like Jordan's speed size is the one that comes to mind. He's not a short hitter. He's just sort of average maybe a little bit above maybe a little bit below depending. But yeah, like if you can gain strokes off the tee if you're long enough and you're accurate like that works. So Corey Connors, a name I'll probably hear later on. We'll be talking about him in the current form section not for good reasons. We'll talk about him there for sure. We'll get to that and course history in just one second but first basketball fans this Thursday is March 3rd which can only mean one thing it's Mountain Dew Super Trade Day being back. That is right. Fandula Mountain Dew has once again teamed up to bring you the 2022 Mountain Dew Super Trade Day daily fantasy contest and sports book offerings. All you can do is head over to Fandula and look for the Mountain Dew Super Trade Day contest or markets to get in on the action whether it's Fandula's three point challenge or Fandula's sports books enhanced odds on three point props. There are something for everyone. More details go to Fandula.com but for the 2022 Mountain Dew Super Trade Day offerings day against Super Trade Day coming up on Thursday this week. Let's dive into past history here at Bay Hill and headliner there is Roy McElroy. And I think that if we're looking at this from a form perspective McElroy is very interesting but it's hard to be quite on wrong this level because he's been so good for so long. However, you mentioned that course history may matter a bit more because there's wins stuff like that. Of course knowledge I shouldn't say maybe matters more. Rom doesn't have that at Bay Hill. McElroy does and it's very good. So let's run through Roy McElroy's history at Bay Hill and then let's talk about him and Rom together and how we're viewing them in this field this week. So Rory won here in 2018. He has five straight top tens. He has seven for seven in terms of made cuts with just one finish worse than 11th when he finished 27th. That is phenomenal. That's about as good of a course result as you could find it for any golfer at any course. And as I mentioned already, I'm leaning toward and already have been like ramping up ball striking extra this week. So that's not gonna exactly get me to go away from Rory who ranks fifth in the field in my adjusted stroke scan ball striking numbers over the past year, which account for not only field strength but recency as well. His current form is also good for what's there. 12th and Abu Dhabi, a third in Dubai, 10 January was 10th at the Genesis. Now it is worth noting that McElroy's past two results have been aided by putting, but his putting is trending up and Rory is not the best putter but he's also not generally awful. So that's one thing to keep in mind there. And it's not like he was only putting his way to those good results. So honestly, I know you've hopped on the Rory train. You're there. I was a little bit slower to get there. I'm there this week, but you wanted to talk about Rory versus John Rom. It's a very good conversation this week. And frankly, whenever I had the option of Rom versus anybody else for like the past year, it's been wrong by a mile. Can't like kind of slid into that a couple weeks ago, but I think it's a little bit of a conversation this week. So talk to me about your first thoughts on John Rom at 12,100 on Fandall and Rory McElroy at 11,900. I think that the fact that it's a conversation is an acknowledgement of how good Rory has been and the fact that he's like really good at this course. So I think that that in itself is like giving a head nod to Rory like, okay, like we see you. But to me, and this could be wrong, but I want to go back to what you said in the open where you're talking about, hey, you know, John Rom not getting these finishes. And I know you were being sarcastic, but like, so I have to do, yeah. I actually use like Fandall hurry up videos and like I have John Rom as my top pick there. And I'm guessing if that gets tweeted out, people will be like, Rom's not paying off. I think people are going to be mad about like, I think that they're not going to see the return on investment that they expect from Rom. I think that's going to potentially lead despite the fact that Rom is a vetting favorite despite he has a high salary. I think that like, we're going to see lower roster rates than expected on John Rom. And that's partly why I am inclined to like take a look at McElroy here. Or sorry, look at Rom this week because I feel like he's still the better play straight up like the long form history or the long form form is better. I care about bogey avoidance this week given how tough the field is, how tough the course is given the wind and stuff like that. Rom leads the field in bogey avoidance the past 50 rounds according to fantasy national. Obviously McElroy's ball striking is good, but so is Rom's. So I'm actually, if I continue to get the read or the vibe that Rom is going to be less popular than he should, which is kind of my assumption right now I'm probably going Rom for cash games and for tournaments with Rory, I still like Rory. And I feel like I'd want to start most of my lives with one of those two guys. But I think if I'm choosing one for both formats I'm probably going to go Rom there. I mean, yeah, we don't really have to like, I know that this is a conversation we're having but I don't think you need to walk on eggshells to say that you like John Rom this week. And I'm not saying that you're pretending like nobody likes Rom or nobody's going to play Rom. I'm not saying he'll be 30% when he should be 40%. Right. It is still impossible to state how good John Rom is relative to the rest of this field. I have him, and I should have looked this up. I have him, what's this? Like 0.65 shots per round better with all the adjustments than Rory who I kind of manually bumped up just a tinge for the course history, which I don't really bake in because I don't think it's very predictive generally this week. Your baseline assumption that it's not being like too much is probably right. Give me a year sample of adjusted form that accounts for a recency rather than what someone did four years ago and count that the same as how they're calling now. I'll take that. But yeah, like it's impossible to state how good Rom has been. That's not really reflected in the win odds because for me, Rory is really overvalued from a betting standpoint at 13 to one on Fandall Sportsbook. Rom's eight and a half to one now, but my win simulations have Rom at 11% likely to win and Rory at 4.4% likely to win as much as I say that it's pretty close from a daily fantasy standpoint. I would rather have John Rom as a bet even at those shorter odds. And I'd rather play Rom. That being said, I think Rory is a tier above everyone else. And my only fear with that is I think other people will think the same thing because Rory at Bay Hill makes a lot of sense. But honestly, Rory's not that far ahead and all my spreadsheets than like Victor Hovland or Scottie Scheffler. But if I were really thinking about this, it's gonna be hard to click Hovland or Scheffler over Rory very frequently at a course where Rory's been so good and with Rory in good form. So I kind of have some FOMO with Rory that's probably a little bit unfounded. So I'm higher on Rom than I would think consensus would be probably still lower on Rory than consensus would be but I'm also higher on Rory than all my data says I probably should be anyway. Right, I think that for me, I agree where the gap between him and Hovland and Scheffler's decent. And I think that that's why I'd want again to start with either Rom or McElroy and most of my lineups just because I do think that they're above the rest of the field, what? I looked at, are you looking at fan share? Yeah. Cause I did too and Rom is very low which is partly fueling why I think that he'll be I think he'll be 30% roster but not 40% Sure, I mean, we're up to 17 tags for the leader. So it's not for lack of tags overall. Yeah, that's what I said. I think sentiment is shifted against him. I'll just say, I can say this, John Rom has one more tag than Bryson who withdrew. So over under 30% roster rate for Rom in like the primary of the Eagle on Vandal. I'm getting like 29 vibes. So I'm gonna say I would lean under but it's very different than usual. So I don't know, I think that's advantageous. I don't do as much to get overweight on him. Cool, let's take advantage of that. Again, I have Rom like almost three times as likely to win than Roy. He's pretty good. So you mentioned there is someone on fan share with 17 tags, let's talk about him. Matt Fitzpatrick, our boy apparently a lot of people are talking about Fitzpatrick right now. He's golfing well, he has plus history at Bay Hill which makes his, the sentiment there less shocking, the salary at 11, two less shocking Fitzpatrick has played at Bay Hill seven times, which is weird cause he's very young, but he has top 10s or he has three top 10s all of which have come the past three years. Last year was almost fully fueled by putting but he gained at least seven strokes T to green in both 2019 and 2020 and like it's not a shock to see Matt Fitzpatrick go nuts on the greens. He's very good at Bermuda. So it's within his range of outcomes have a spike week there for sure. Fitzpatrick had top 10 finishes of the waste management and a pedal beach. He seems to do well in these tougher courses where he can grind out pars. So do you think Matt Fitzpatrick is worth the highest salary and how does his sentiment change knowing that he'll likely be very popular this week? Yeah, I mean, look, you can kind of view tougher tracks one of two ways where like guys can get knocked around easily or the best of the best will separate and I'm usually more in the camp of the ladder but not to the point that I will eat so much chalk whenever we have viable alternatives. And I think that we have viable alternatives because again, this field is quite good. And I love Matt Fitzpatrick overall but I have sung JM at 11-3. I have Will's Outorus at 11-1. I got Sam Bermuda-Berns at 10-7 whose form's not very good but like I have ways to differentiate. I mean, we can all forget about Hideki very easily, it seems like, he's 11-6. So I'm not saying it's like the same exact salary but I would honestly out of sung JM, Will's Outorus and Matt Fitzpatrick rank because they're within $100 so if it's, I would rank Fitz-3rd, I think. I would do, I would go. So I had, I initially had Zalatoris-1, Mike goes sung JM. So I'm sung JM, I love sung JM this week. I think people, we wanna kind of joke about the ROM fatigue. I think we have that with sung JM who, this is sort of sung JM's time. He's on Bermuda, the salary is a little bit up. He's at the top of that tier because we do have a tier break from Hideki 11-6 to sung JM 11-3. And people might just be all right, going to Fitz or Zalatoris or, I think feel like Leishman is someone who I'm always lower on than the public as well. So, yeah, not everyone in that range may be popular. They're all getting buzz right now but not everyone can be there. And I think that if someone slips through the cracks, it's more likely to be sung JM than Zalatoris and Fitz, given the way things are trending. Yeah, and I've said this already but that's kind of how you play majors is like you have, just play the guy who's gonna be less rostered. And if you like what you see enough and it's close. I like sung JM a lot. So yeah, pretty easy discussion there. And we'll talk about Zalatoris later on as well. But I think that that range is gonna be getting pretty noteworthy for sure. For this week, let's move down to some lower salary guys starting with the Chris Kirk, $9,300. And Kirk is someone who I tend to look at every week. I tend to talk myself out of him fairly often when doing so. What have you seen with Kirk in the past at Bay Hill? So you've been lingering lately. It's not worthy because he's played well here. Salaries 9,300, which is, I guess, where it probably should be, but I thought maybe it would be a little bit higher and I wouldn't be surprised either. But since 2016, Kirk's finished 12th, cut 13th, 15th, and eighth at Bay Hill. That's recent form that's just about as good as anyone's, honestly, at this course. If you throw that into the hyper recent form that stands out, I think that this is gonna be named here. Plenty, Kirk finished 14th at the WM Phoenix Open, not the Waste Management. I was T7. How would you believe that they changed it? Yeah, where have you been? Is the company not called Waste Management anymore? That whole week it was the WM Phoenix Open. But I always call it the way, because like, I don't know. Yeah, we all still do. I'm trying to learn. Did they change the company name? They don't want the word waste in their company name? Buddy, I don't know. Waste Management, Waste Management. I'm just telling you, it's WM.com. My WM login. Not Jim's gonna pay his garbage bill live on air. Doing business as WM. Wow, I don't pay garbage bills. Come on. Do you have to pay for garbage? Is that a thing? Yeah. I've lived in an apartment for like the past decade and a half, so I have no idea how things work in the real world. Yeah, okay. Well, let's talk about Chris Kirk, who's not garbage, because he's been golfing really well. T14 at the WM Phoenix Open, T7 or Honda last week did so with all four strokes gained categories being positive in those. Did have 4.8 strokes from around the green play last week, which that ain't bankable. The ball striking has actually been just sort of okay. However, Kirk's long-term baseline is that of a good ball striker. And I think that he's probably gonna end up a little bit popular this week. I didn't see where he landed with the tags on fan share, but did Kirk pop for you? Because he did for me from a course form and recent form perspective, but not necessarily from like a whole statistical modeling standpoint. So what are your thoughts on Chris Kirk? Well, I think that he's like near the top of that range, but not at the top of it. So there are some other guys, because I think actually, this is counters what we usually see on FanDuel, the mid to low 9,000 range is kind of good this week, I think at least, because we talk about Corey Connors, he's 96, Christian Bezadenhout is 95, Shanice Power, who I adore is 95, shocker. We've got Kirk at 93, Luke List 92, and then some guys like right below 9,000 who are pretty good too. So to say that Kirk is not at the top of my tier there is not an indictment of him. It's an endorsement of the rest of that tier. So it's a pretty good tier, I think. Do you disagree? No, I agree. I did not realize Patrick Reed was 92 and also 120 to one to win. Yeah. That's been quite the fall lately. Yeah. But yeah, otherwise, if you kick out Patrick Reed from the 9,200 discussion, I think it's a good range. I mean, I liked him as a top 10 last week. I mean, it was a market, like a market in efficiency, I think. It was very generous odds, which I'm sure I'll get again and I'll probably bet again and sure. Also, if we do WMPO, is that like a Wapo thing? Like a Washington Post thing where you go WMPO? Like, is that how you do this? Like, can I call it the WMPO? Or is that taking it too far? I think you answered your own question with that one. Yeah, I'm gonna call it WMPO. Thank you. I appreciate that. Another guy who's been getting some buzz this week is Keith Mitchell. Let's talk about him here. He's up up there in tags as well. We talked about Mitchell last week in the course history section and he finished ninth. So he paid off that is the buzz there. Mitchell has good history at the Arnold Palmer as well. He has played the event three times. He was sixth, fifth, and 43rd in those three events. He's gained at least 2.4 strokes off the tee in all three events. He also putted well here, which isn't some crazy surprise. He's not a plus putter on Bermuda, but it is his best surface of the three. He also has been having more spike weeks on the greens recently than he's had for like his whole career. And that does include gaining 4.7 strokes putting last week. So the ninth place finish aided by putting, but he also gained an approach for the fifth time in the past six events. That's not typically his strength. So Mitchell can stroke it. We know that for sure. He's 10-2. Are you backing on Keith Mitchell again this week? Yes. I think he's gonna fit a little bit more of a balanced build. If I can get sort of ROM, maybe Sung Jae, Mitchell I think I'd be cool with as like a top three. See what that leaves me with, which I could do right now. If I were better. It's 91.5 if you go ROM and Sung Jae. If you lop in Mitchell, it's 88. I do like the high 8,000 range, but I think I'm probably gonna, I probably will only have ROM Sung Jae and then dip, I think. Yeah. But I could, I mean, so in that 10,000 range, we got Sam Burns, Paul Casey, who's odds have shifted in a positive sense for him. He popped for me, but I just kind of got some talking about fatigue here, but Billy Horschel. It's like six years of fatigue. Yeah. Horschel, Mitchell, Max Homa, I like, I think I could probably, if I offset ROM salary with like one value guy and tried to get up to that 10,000 range, that's appealing to me. So maybe I'll end up going that route, but I think that I like Mitchell enough. So that's kind of what I'm getting at. It's like, I like Mitchell and that range enough to consider building around it a little bit, because I think that the drop off from those guys to the low 9,000 is pretty substantial. Okay. Yeah, I think that's probably right, especially given how good like the high-ish 10,000 range is like, I think Tiro Hatton's pretty solid personally. I don't know if you're on board with that, but I like Burns despite what he's done to me. But if you go ROM Burns Mitchell, that's 9,000 left per golfer. And then if you go like, if you put in a hoagie or, who's the other value guy at like a lot this week, Lonto is 88. If you do like that, then you're back in that like decent low 9,000 range. So I can see that. I think that I'd be more into a ROM and then two guys in the 10,000 range than a ROM SungJ 10,000 range. So it's kind of like two routes for roster construction. For me, ROM plus SungJ plus dip or ROM plus two guys in the 10,000 range and then dip. I like how SungJ is now your guy this week as well. I don't know, man. I like, I don't know what I was doing yesterday. Like I talked myself out of SungJ. So I like had him, I had his name written down on my player picks and I erased it. So I don't know, whatever. Just I'm back, I'm back. But yes, I think Mitchell validates that discussion, validates that type of approach because he's very good because he can just crush it. And I also do think that like other guys in the high 9,000 range justify that type of approach too. Not just Mitchell, but some guys up there I would be into as well. Let's shift gears now and talk about current form and not all positive current form. We'll talk about some guys who are struggling here and decide if we want to buy low on them. Let's start things off with Billy Horschel. Billy Horschel is $10,500. We talked about him quite a bit last week too. Where do you see Horschel grading out in that 10,000 range we were just discussing? I'm pretty well, I'm probably not at the top or anything but again, another reason that we could consider a balanced approach for this week because honestly outside of ROMs insane win odds like it's fairly flat because it's a good field. I'm not saying that Billy Horschel is as likely as Roy to win, that's not what I'm saying but at salary it's, you know, you can justify a very balanced build for this week. And Horschel I think makes a lot of sense. He's playing a Florida track. He's gonna play tough this week. We know he's been vocal about liking courses that play this way. Can't really cherry pick a whole lot of better spots to write the Billy Horschel narrative to want to play him. If you combine that with a recent form, it's very easy to talk yourself into Billy. In 2022, he's five for five on cuts made, three straight to top 16 finishes most recently at 11th at the Farmers, sixth at the WM Phoenix Open, 16th at Honda. And he actually lost strokes from the short game there. So you give me Billy Horschel with some ball striking? Like what's that gonna look like? Horschel despite the ostensible fit here though hasn't been particularly good at Bay Hill. He's made eight of nine cuts here with the cut coming last year when the short game abandoned him but like not a whole lot of great, great finishes. So that's the one concern but you got a factor in the current form being pretty good right now. I think that he's in play but again, he's not gonna be someone that I prioritize over the rest of the 10,000 range namely Mitchell, Burns, probably Casey as well. I also like Russell Henley at 10,000 even. So Horschel, someone I would be totally fine putting into my lineups. Not gonna rank him at the top but another reason again just to sort of give that 10,000 range a long look. Yeah, I think that he's just a victim of who else is there for me. And like I like most of the guys better and it's the guys you listed. It's, I do like Henley too, Mitchell, Casey. Burns is only for tournaments but like I think he's appeal for tournaments is pretty high but I think that's kind of just weeds him out where although the ball striking may have been good last week do you expect Horschel's ball striking to be a plus in this field at this event? Maybe not. So I'd rather bet on the ball striking to other guys personally. So for me, that's the main drawback of Horschel. I don't think he's a bad option but he's not gonna grade out above those other guys. So let's go back to the 11,000 range and talk about, let's wrap up our discussion of that range. So we talked about, if it's Patrick before we talked about Sung Jae, let's give the casers Zalatoris as being the top guy in the low 11,000 range at 11-1. Will Zalatoris finished 10th in his Arnold Palmer debut last year golfing pretty well right now. Zalatoris has been at three events since January 1st. His finishes in those are 6th, 2nd and 26th despite losing strokes putting in all three events. That's because he gained 3.7, 7.9. It's because he can't gain strokes putting. Yeah. I thought that's what you were gonna say. I mean, yeah, he can't, he's not a lot. But he's gained a lot on approach in those events and that's kind of offset the issues. The off the tee play, not as stellar as usual for Zalatoris but honestly that might be a plus because like we know good as upside is there and like I don't expect that to go away. So if he regains that while keeping the gains he's made with his approach play, that could be pretty fun. He's an amazing ball striker. He avoids bogeys despite being a really bad putter. So how does he grade out for you? I think that's probably why I talked myself into him. I was like, oh, the putting's bad but like he overcomes it but like with Sung Jae, the putting's good and he doesn't really need to overcome a lock cause he's pretty good elsewhere too. Like I think I've, I think I've turned, I think I've turned and just gone full Sung Jae but what about you? Yeah, I was trying to, I added a whole lot of columns to my spreadsheet. I was trying to see. So I got Z scores for ball striking in here. I have Zalatoris at a 1.66, Sung Jae at a 1.28. That's close enough for me where Z scores are just how many deviations you are above like the field. That's close enough. Whenever you factor in the short game where Sung Jae's at 1.16 and Zalatoris is a minus 0.15 where I'm gonna have a hard time going Zalatoris over Sung Jae but I do have Zalatoris over Fitzpatrick because Fitzpatrick's ball striking is not. That's always the issue with Fitzpatrick. The short game's there, he can grind it out but he's also like if the irons are really bad which they can be like relative to his salary and he's just not making those putts, you're kind of toast. Yeah, and that's the concern because again with Sung Jae you don't have to worry about that like you know the putting will be solid. Well, you get to the extent you can know putting will be solid. It's less of a known negative because it's probably good for him. So I think that's why I go Sung Jae. I feel pretty good putting Zalatoris above Fitzpatrick because the ball striking will be better but welcome to the club. I know, I know. You can give yourself credit for that. It's fine, it's fine. I should have been on Sung Jae yesterday and I was dumby. So Tuesday gym smarter than Monday gym. I think that's inclusion here. Let's go to your second current form guy Cameron Young. I believe we talked about him last week too but he's kept it up. He's still golfing really well, still low sour to 91. How about now? I think that we were waiting for a ball striking course to buy in Cameron Young. What do you know? We kind of get that here. So what do you see with Cameron Young at $9,100? That and it's possible not everyone listened to the Honda pod. Bless your souls if you didn't. Because you know, you're making good life choices. I'm not, so good for you. So I figured, hey, why gloss over Cameron Young just because we talked about him last week? You didn't remember we talked about him last week, did you? What's that? You didn't remember we talked about him last week, did you? I think I thought I actually made a note in here that I did. No, I went back and looked because we had a lot of like Keith Mitchell was like, I talked about him last week. So now you were podcast. I gotta plant my flag, bro. We're gonna talk about him here. And I think he's fine. Like gotta plant my flag. Come on. I'm just, bud. Get out the paint. Get out the paint. Look, Cameron Young is golfing really well right now and his salary is 9,100. Last week, he was what? You should know, cause he's your guy. Come on. I'm looking it up. Just give me two seconds. Like I said, get off me, bro. Cameron Young's salary is on the note sheet. Wow. I have no idea what a salary is. Did you look up last week's podcast? Yeah. Cause you don't put the salaries on stuff. I don't need to look up salaries. I have a sheet that tells me salaries. Well, why would I have it on both places? It's just a waste of time. He was like 10, two, I think. Cause he was right around, but so now he's 91, but it's not because he played poorly. It's because the field got a lot better. So that's why I think Cameron Young warrants some discussion here. And with these, again, just with the field being what it is, I think it's sort of a something to note here. We're getting good golfers at lower salaries than we probably should, because it's a good field. And like that makes it a little bit different with roster construction and how you think of things. Anyway, Young has four straight top 26 finishes on the PGA tour, including a 20th at farmers, 26th at the waste management, T2 at the Genesis, 16th at Honda last week. He's going to gain distance even on this field cause he just launches it. It's a very strong head start. He has yet to play Bay Hill though. It's a tough course with form attainable by, you know, invitation. So that holds an edge this week as I mentioned, but I don't really want to like write off Cameron Young just because he hasn't played here. The issue is though, like I said, we have other options in this 9,000 range. So I guess maybe talk to me about your guy and then maybe we'll just try to rank the low 9,000 range, low to mid, sorry, low to mid. Okay, I like it. So let's talk for Connors. I mentioned before that we're going to talk about Connors in the current form section, not because it's good, but because it's a little rough, I would say, but Connors, good ball striker. So I think we should discuss him here and discuss if the form is concerning enough to push us off. Connors has missed three of his past four cuts. The one round, he did make the cut, he finished 38th. The putting was a disaster in two of them, which, you know, but the approach play has also been a bit more middling in three of those events. Connors ranks fifth in the field in stretching off the tee of the past 50 rounds. He's 33rd in approach, despite the recent struggles, but the putting is rough and the form is not as elite as we're used to with Corey Connors. So I think there's a reason he's a 96. I don't think that reason is enough to push us off of him. I think that Connors is very attractive at 96, but I also think Luke List is pretty good. I think Cameron Young is worthy of discussion. And I love Sheamus Power at 95. Can that just be like an assumed thing now? Is Sheamus Power in the field? If yes, Jim will like him. Like we can just do that. But what's your read of this mid to low 9,000 range? Yeah, it's good. And I have, let me see here, adjusted for salary. I've got power number one. If we look at guys at 96 and below, followed by Luke List, Corey Connors, Bazaiden Hote, and then Kirk. There's tons of options here. It's gonna be a week where you gotta whittle things down and you'll be picky, I think is the takeaway. Yeah, that's why like someone like Chris Kirk who's golfing well, plays well here, might not be as good of a play as some other options who just have better long-term results because you can't just look at the past two weeks and say like this is who this golfer is. So that's why for me, long-term form always wins out. And with that, Kirk's a little bit lower, but I don't really have any like, I'm not gonna tell someone like, hey man, don't play, don't play Chris Kirk. Because I think he's... Question for you. Over the past 12 months over at Data Golf, there are true strokes gained. Who leads a field in true strokes gained off the tee over the past 12 months? It's not a true question. This one's not a true question. This is, it's wrong. Anyway, who's second? Okay, I was gonna say it. I feel like it's wrong or Rory, but... It's wrong. Who's second? Second, Connors? He's fourth. List? List is, I can't count that high. He's like... You can switch it to ranks. I don't wanna do that. Okay. I don't know then. Cameron MF and Young is number two behind John Rom. Yeah, I wasn't thinking of him because his shot length sample is probably still fairly small. And, oh, this is at Data Golf. And Young is also second the past six months behind John Rom. Three is Rory McElroy. Nikolai Hogard is, or Hoyard is fourth. Then Sergio Garcia, Keith Mitchell, Victor Havan, Sung Jae, List, Connors, et cetera, et cetera. So like, if we're bumping up the value of off the tee play in general, kind of feel like we should probably be pretty in on Cameron Young. Do I rank him above List? Probably not, because List's approach plays a lot better, and I think that matters a lot. But like, Young is a good putter too. So you can bomb and putt and you can get that for 91. He's not bad on approach. I think that's pretty fun. So I don't know, like I'm kind of in, you know? Oh, okay. So I'm not gonna, I'm not saying any of this to speak ill of Cameron Young, who I think has a very bright future and is very much in play. His shot link sample is 30 rounds over the past six months. And yes, he is second off the tee in that span. He's basically average with the approach. And I don't wanna say that he's a good putter based on just 30 rounds. Very possible he is. But I think that you give me, now I'm like, now I'm second guess and stuff, but I just, I still have Cameron Young rank a little bit lower. Than who? Like this tier in general. Okay. What about him versus Kirk? Kirk by a hair. Okay, do you wanna do a bet? Well, if I say that, then Chris Kirk's gonna miss the cut because I don't win these, but I'll take it for the fun of the show. So you have Chris Kirk fan dual points versus my Cameron Young fan dual points. We give you a $200 edge here too, because the sour is lower on Young. Is it? Yeah, so you're gonna miss, a little edge here. So just to see now. Let's see if Jim can win the sixth straight. Is it a lead? Wow. Don't talk about the bubble hat last week, cause I'm pretty sure I lost that by like a hundred. So let's not talk about that. It's crazy how my success in the head to heads is so bad. That's not translate. Yeah. Other aspects. Yeah. We don't do anything for the head to heads either. So that's a true delight. Yeah. I think the overall though, my impression is that this range is good and I'm okay living in it more than I usually am. Would you agree with that center? Yeah. I know we're spending a lot of time on this, but I think like you could build a lineup. Again, I threw in a raw Mitchell homestart and I have 9,200 left for every golfer. You might not have to dig below 8,000 because we talk about win upside, win juice all the time. You're not getting a whole lot of that. Even from these guys, sure, but the lower you go into the 8,000 range, like you just don't really have a whole lot of win equity expectation from these guys because the past winners here who were in the field, you know, Bryson won last year, but he's not here with Drew. Joe Hatton, Rory, Mark Leishman, Jason Day, Martin Laird, back in 2011. But the guys who win here are good. And if you're banking on two to three true value plays, you're gonna have a hard time getting access to a lot of ceiling points. Yeah. Yeah. I think that that is probably the way I'd wanna lean. I will say though that you can do a raw McElroy lineup and like you can go below 9,000, you never have to go below 8,700 to fill out a good lineup. So. Right. 9,000 is a soft cutoff. It's more 8,700. I wouldn't, well, I don't see a lot of value below 8,700 dollars this week personally. And I think that's where I kinda wanna live as far as like my lower. So I think that it's a good range this week, better than usual is the way I'd phrase it. Like last week I wanna actively avoid that tier. This week I'm gonna live in it, I think quite a bit for sure. Let's dive into the bookmaker odds for this week based on the odds of FanDuel Sportsbook. John Rom, the clear favorite of FanDuel. He is plus 850, Roy McElroy 13 to one with Victor Hoban at 15 to one. Scotty Shethler is 19 to one. Hideki Matsuyama, 21 to one. Then there is a tier falloff down to Sung J.M. and that fits Patrick and Will Zawatoris. They are all 29 to one. Tiro Hatten, Adam Scott, about 32 to one with Mark Leishman and Paul Casey rounding at the top group at 36 to one. So I think we're saying, use Rom or McElroy most lineups, correct? Is that a fair assertion? Okay, where do you go for number two? What is your preferred one between the Sung J slash Zawatoris slash it's Patrick or dipping down to the 10,000 range? If you had to pick one for a single entry tournament lineup, where are you going? As much as I hate to do it to my guy Sung J, I think getting access to more of the, boy, that's a coin flip. I'm gonna say, I'm gonna say Sung J and the 9,000s. That's a sweet, that's a band name. Sung J and the 9,000s. Yeah. I love it. I think I'm there too. And I think that Rom and the 10Ks in the battle of the bands. Yeah, maybe Johnny and the 10Ks. No, Rom's baked in, Rom's the lead singer. It's just more about the background voices. Like do you want to go with Sung J as a background voice or Keith Mitchell and Sam Burns? Yeah, for tournaments, yeah, Burns is fine. But I think that that's kind of the discussion here because like Rom's an assumption, so. Okay. Then I think because we talked so much about the 9,000 range and I really started to like tons of names down there, I would go with Rom Sung J and then round it out with the 9,000 range. I think that's where I'm at too, is my preferred route. Because I do think there's a gap between Sung J and Burns and Mitchell, et cetera, et cetera. That's the main thing for me. I'm okay paying for that gap too. Yeah. Yeah, good, good. Look at you coming around. If you look at the odds for this week, they've shifted a lot. So basically FanDuel opened things pretty short on a lot of guys. Assuming didn't get a lot of action because they were short and then bumped things out. So if you look at the odds, everyone has lengthened since yesterday. Maybe a couple of exceptions. And I think those might be more noteworthy because it means they probably got action at the shorter number. So who shortened yesterday that was noteworthy? Okay, so I re-pulled everything after Bryson withdrew. Paul Casey was 41 to one on FanDuel Sportsbook. He's not 36. Again, that's a name that I threw out. Someone who popped in my model but I just kind of had fatigue here and didn't get quite there myself. But then Carlos Ortiz and Sebastian Munoz went from 190. That is all I see who have shortened. So again, indicates some people. Again, some action on those guys. As for, do you have something to say? I was curious, like I wasn't super, I like Ortiz and Munoz in general. I was not super drawn towards them this week. Did you have a different sentiment on them? Because I didn't, I guess I was kind of surprised to see them be the guys shortening. No, they didn't really jump off the page for me. In that range, I have like Tom Hogi and Carlos Ortiz are the same salary. I have Tom Hogi ranked well above him. I do too. And then Munoz at 85, I think is probably behind Aaron Wise. Again, at 86. So like if I was in that range, I'd go Aaron Wise. But no, they didn't really stand out to me either. Aaron Wise and Sam Burns just really don't like me, which is fine. I don't blame them, but it's been a rough month plus. Yeah, some of the larger lengthening options have been Rory from 10 to one to 13 to one. Rory I think was aggressively, aggressively priced at 10 to one. So that's one of the bigger moves there. Mark Leishman from 29 to 36 was also kind of more noteworthy than others. Virtually everyone who opened up at 50 is not 55. Same for 60 to 65. But Sepp Straka, probably not a whole lot of biting there from 70 to one to 90 to one. So I think that if you're on the Sepp Straka train, you might not be as chalky after his win as maybe you would think, but- We saw them in Neiman last week too. So I feel like it could be a situation where people assume they'll be chalky and then don't use them as a result maybe, or maybe they just get their salaries jacked up too much at the point where they're not as good of a play. I don't know. I think it's possible, of course- I don't know, people are that galaxy brains. Maybe it is about the salaries more so than like, oh, they'll be chalky, so I won't use them. Well, I mean, Neiman was not even like, he was what, just another guy in the top range last week. Yeah, he was like- If you're looking at him relative to them on like a long-term perspective, he was not in the same tier as the other guys who were up there. Yeah, I think that one was less egregious. I did see some early victory lapping for like people saying, hey, people faded Neiman because he won last week. And then, I mean, he didn't make the cut. So like, but like, you know, I'm not just- Oops. Look- I was more so saying like on the broad perspective of like, you know- Yeah. We always assume people who are coming off a win we very popular, that's not always the case. Sure. And I think you have to add in context here. Sepstrak is not going to be the chalk in a field this good. Why not? You know, I think he's a standout. He won last week. Trophies, bro. The will to win. Sepstrak has got it. Which lower salary golfers have the standout to you? Not the best week really, if this is part of your process, but if you look at golfers with salaries of 9,000 or lower, the best thoughts belong to Thomas Peters, Eric VanRoyne, Lonto Griffin. They're all 75 to one. And then, Sepstrak, Siwoo Kim, Tom Hoagy, Carlos Ortiz and Sebastian Munoz are 90 to one. Everyone else is at least 120 to one as of now. Anyone stand out to you in that regard? Thomas Peters, Lonto's, I'm cool with Hoagy. I like a lot as well. Yeah. I think those are the three for me. I have them ranked differently, be where I'd go with Lonto and Hoagy above Peters, but I think over all of them. I was reading down the list. Oh, well, never mind that. Weather for this week actually is noteworthy, so we'll spend a tiny bit more time on this for this week. Thursday, wind speeds don't jack up until around 6 p.m., which means the rounds are probably over by then or getting close to it. So I wouldn't worry about wind speeds on Thursday, but on Friday, winds ramp up throughout the day. There'll be above 10 miles per hour for the entire afternoon wave after being below five for the early wave there. So I think there's actually a pretty decent edge for golfers who tee off in the morning on Friday slash afternoon Thursday. I might not go so far as to stack that, but I do think that it will actually influence golfers who are close to me. So let's take the Peters, Hoagy and Lonto tier as an example. Thomas Peters to me is third of that group. If Peters winds up teeing off afternoon Thursday, whereas those guys are in the morning Thursday, I have to deal with the heavier winds Friday, I'd probably bump Peters up above them. I think it's actually, we're like if they're in the same tier, I'm okay making that adjustment based on that. Same thing goes for like Zalatoris versus Sung Jae. If Sung Jae breaks my heart and draws like a morning Thursday thing whereas Zalatoris is afternoon, I'm okay. I'm okay pivoting to Zalatoris then. So I actually do think for me, it will be a factor in my analysis. The leaders on Saturday and Sunday will be playing in pretty heavy winds, 15 miles per hour from noon on, both Saturday and Sunday. So wind will be a factor. Don't think you have to do wind splits. You could though. I think that it's more valid than usual, but I think the bigger implication is that scores are gonna be in check similar to what they were the past few years where we're not gonna see someone go 15 under, I wouldn't think. Maybe we're on Marorica, but like I don't think we're gonna see 15 under here. So scoring should be suppressed a little bit. And I think there is a bump up for guys teaming off in the afternoon Thursday because they get the less wind on Friday. Are you okay with making adjustments that are for us at least pretty major for weather this week? Yeah, I like it. Makes sense to me. The one thing that actually jumped out as you mentioned, the leaders playing in heavier winds on the weekend, maybe some live betting opportunities there for some guys who call for a little bit earlier. Okay, I can see that for sure. So yeah, I think that's something you might also if you're doing like single round stuff for Friday, you need to keep tee times in mind for that because the guys seeing off later Thursday or later Friday for the single round contest gonna be a thing there. I might actually play those. I have not played those in a very long time. I haven't been bored enough to play those a long time. I'd yell it this week, we'll see. Anyway, let's move into our player picks here for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Brandon, who are you checking on in the upper range on Fandal for this week? I feel kind of fraudulent here by saying Rory because I think ROM is the much better play, but I do think that Rory is a tier above everyone other than ROM, so I think it's at least worth noting. I mentioned that the form at Bay Hill, the current form is good. He's such a good ball striker, the putting's trending up. For 11-9, I think there's a lot of justification to have Rory in your lineups. And I honestly like him enough where even though my wind simulations don't say to do this, where I could maybe build this, build a lineup with ROM and duplicate it and just sub in Rory, eat the 200 and salary and just keep everything else the same because if you've played DFS for PGA enough, you know how hard it is to hit the right combos. So that's not to say how can I reshuffle this to use that extra 200? It's just honestly swapping out ROM for Rory. Yeah, I think that I'm into that for sure. I do the combos, switches and stuff like that and it works. Sometimes you can stumble into the right combination. So I think that Rory does make a lot of sense. I will say a Rory ROM lineup will be in my player pool for this week. I think you can make it work without hating yourself. So I'll be doing that for sure. My high salary guy is John Rom. I'm comfortable with some shit. Without hating yourself for that reason. I'll make it more broad, there you go. You're welcome. I think that for cash games, it's ROM and I think for tournaments, it's also ROM for me just because I think that he'll be less popular than he should be. He leads the field in stroking off the tee and bogey avoidance the past 50 rounds, which is a pretty fun combination. He's also fifth in approach. And like sure, the results have not been what you paid for from a salary perspective this year, but also having a bad, like 21st isn't bad. It's bad for his salary, but it's not bad. And like Duke and Silk Rush. So I think that we're not gonna get ROM that reduce popularity very often. We might get it this week based on, you know, some fatigue. I'll take advantage and go with him there. Who else do you like in this upper age? Sung Jae, Sung Jae in the 9,000s this week. The thing I like about this podcast is we do it early in the week and we only have salaries for so long. And like it's really talking through the process and how we think about building our DFS lineups. And that I think is a lot of value for me to talk about this for so long. But Sung Jae in that 9,000 range with ROM is gonna be my head to head lineup against you. I can just say that much for sure. I know. Sorry, buddy. Sorry, buddy. I've already got mine done. So you can do whatever you want, it's fine. I think like there's a chance he's a little bit more forgotten than some of these other names, especially if Matt Fitzpatrick is as chalky as... Chalky. Come on, man. I was trying to do my best here. But Sung Jae is in the 91st percentile and ball striking in my model, but also the 87th percentile in short game. I talked about the Z scores being good there too. And he's one of only five with a salary of at least 10,000 to rank 85th percentile in both ball striking and short game. Very good. Has good form here. Third, third, 21st at Bay Hill. I'm on Sung Jae this week. Yeah, I initially had Zalatoris here and I can't justify like given how much I've talked about Sung Jae doing that. So like my second player pick will be Sung Jae. I agree where like, well before, before at best for our head to head this week because I'm gonna put Sung Jae in there as well. Just like the stability you get with his putting without sacrificing ball striking, that's really hard to give up. Whereas the alternative is Zalatoris where it's not a known to the putting to be negative, but it's pretty darn close. So I think that for me, it's hard to go Zalatoris above Sung Jae. Again, if I, if Sung Jae gets a bad draw or if I get to read that Zalatoris will be a lot less popular, then sure, I'll go there. But I'd need those factors to be in play. And I also don't think Zalatoris would be less popular based on early vibes. And like you said, a little bit of Sung Jae fatigue for people too. So Sung Jae is my number two player pick as well for this week. Let's move now to the mid range, a good mid range, who you got there? I'm not going away from Corey Connors just yet. If we care less about putting this week so we can emphasize ball striking, Connors just makes a lot of sense, even with the short, the small sample being not great with the irons. Over the past year, he's in the 92nd percentile and adjusted ball striking. It's a better sample to use than the past few weeks. I'm not saying that this will just spike back into an overcorrection, but again, it's just, it's better to use a larger sample for stats like that. And he also like, he's going to find fairways when he needs to, he's going to gain some distance when he can. Was third here last year, and that Connors probably goes mostly overlooked too because of the, we like the upper or the lower 10,000 range. We like the lower 9,000 range Connors, probably not going to draw a whole lot of attention with his current form being what it looks like. Would you go there in cash games or would you pivot elsewhere because of the struggles? I don't worry about the struggles. It's more of a, I might just realistically be in the 9,091-93 tier for like, because cash game for me is one lineup. So. Yeah, yep. I agree. I think that I would also not quite be getting back up there, staring at my lineup right now, not quite getting back up there, but I might get to change his power at $9,500, $100 lower than him. Power coming up back to back miscuts, but it was on the tail end of a pretty grueling schedule for him. I mean, it could be because the pebble beach stuff could be lingering like mentally, but he was off last week, so it's possible that power will bounce back this week. He also wasn't terrible in the two miscuts. He putted poorly at the waste management, sorry, the WMPO. He had issues around the green at the Genesis, but the ball striking was still solid in both those. Power ranks 48th off the tee, 24th in approach, and fifth in bogey avoidance. He's also good for me to putter, so if I can de-emphasize chipping, I'll happily buy into power here at just $9,500. Not like him a lot. I think that he's not a necessity for cash gains, but he is close to it, I would say, $9,500. What's your read on Sheamus this week? Like him, probably not my number one in this range, but I'm now starting to have a hard time ranking them, exactly. Give me Sheamus versus Connors. Do it, do it, do it, do it, do it, do it. Do it. Give me $200 with Kirk versus Young, and I give you another $100 here with Sheamus versus Connors. So generous. Yeah, that's 300, bro, that's- At the WM, I gave you- I'm betting against markets here. Markets are efficient in general. I'm being a dummy for your benefit. You should take advantage of me. Speaking of the WM, I had Hideki against Cantley, so I think we have a ways to go yet before that one balances out. Yeah. Uh, are you gonna bet me or no? Yeah, I said I will. Woo-hoo! Okay, cool, I'll take it. I'm excited, I just love my boy Sheamus. Okay, who else do you like in this mid-range? Luke List, we both like Luke List. The same case I made for Connors can be made for List. 90th percentile adjusted ball striking, 80th percentile around the green, he just doesn't putt well. The stats say that putting here is not that hard, and that's kind of been reflected in List's results here, 17th, 7th, 10th, and 63rd in four tries. Yeah, I like List too. He's my second guy down here as well. $9,200 for a guy with his ball striking is really hard to turn down. And like, yeah, the putting's bad and I have bogey avoidance on my List for this week, but it's actually pretty good there. He's 25th in bogey avoidance because everything else is so good. He just kind of puts himself in position for birdies and may not convert all the time, but like, he doesn't bomb a whole lot. He's 10th and stroking off the tee, 15th in approach. We've seen him, like you said, put that to good use here with the good finishes. So it's pretty hard to duplicate all that stuff with Luke List for 92, and I am okay, despite the putting with him for a cash game for this week. Let's move down to the value range. Who stands out to you at $9,000 and below? Thomas Peters right at 9,000. He nukes it off the tee and I think that's relevant for this week. He's got the best long-term form by a comfortable margin in this in the salary range for me. Training back up as well, despite a missed cut at the Genesis. I won in Abu Dhabi in 2022, 12th at Dubai, 24th in Saudi Arabia. He's got results here back in 2016, 2017 that won't impress you, but I'm willing to rule those out. Yeah, I think Peters works really well. I think that he's one of the three guys I like down here. The other one's being Lonto Griffin and Tom Hogy. I'll talk about Griffin here. Lonto, $8,800 feels pretty low for a guy with his skills. And like the off the tee play isn't very good. He's 74th there, but 36th in approach, 18th at Bermuda Putting, 7th at Bogey avoidance. That has helped him make eight straight cuts. Lonto has three top tens in that stretch. And like the off the tee play has been better recently. Not making it to be good. He's not losing as much there as he was at the end of the summer. So I think that's a positive. I think there's a lot to like here at $8,800. And I actually would probably go Lonto above Hogy if Forrest had chosen this range. So give me the case for Hogy above Lonto for your second player pick here. So for me, it's just, it's volatility. It's sort of upside for Hogy. I'm willing to roll the dice. He's been cut second, cut one, 14th and cut. So basically all good or all bad. He's been more good than bad at Bay Hill as well. 26, 15th and a cut last year, which came with Port Putting. I love Lonto, but give me the, give me the volatility at least with Hogy for the potential for a top 10 in a tough field. Yeah. We talked about volatility. Like I think it has a negative connotation, but like in DFS for tournaments that has a very positive connotation. If it means you have the ability to hit the high ends and Hogy has shown that he can like repeatedly past a couple of times. The only non-volatile golfer is basically John Rom. Yes. And well, I mean like, I mean, I'm talking about a different sense, but like, I mean that like upside, I guess in the sense, Hogy has that in a very good way. So I think that Hogy, he's also my second player pick. So it's just a hair below Lonto, but like, I think he, he grades that well. 16th and approach, 16th, the bogey avoidance. 69th thought the tee, missed the cut of the Genesis, but like it was all tied to short game. So he actually gained a smidge, both off the tee and an approach. So I think the Hogy makes a lot of sense too. I am not opposed to having both Hogy and Griffin in the cash game lineup. I do not have that right now, but I'm not opposed to it. It is two guys with a little bit lower salaries, but I think they're both under salary. I think that's why I'm okay with dipping down there. So both Hogy and Griffin standouts to me in the value range for this week. Let's finish up with our player picks based on the win odds over at Fadwell Sportsbook, Brandon. I have to recover mentally after the missed win for Shane Lowry last week and kind of want to go John Rahman plus 8.50. I kind of want to do it, I think I'm going to do it. Let's do John Rahman plus 8.50 for me, for one of mine. Yeah, I mean, not the best betting value finds for me this week, Rahm actually is a little bit of a value. Now that he's a plus 8.50, everyone else is overvalued. I'm going to go Sung Jae at 29 though. Okay. Because again, the past winners here are generally the studs and I don't want to get into too many long shots just because we had Straco win last week, very different to me. And then I might pull a GM with my second pick. Wait, can I guess? Sure. So you're picking someone we have not talked about in the podcast yet is what you're doing. That's what you're looking for, right? Not necessarily not talked about, but like just we're not that interested in DFS. Okay, okay, okay. I actually don't know, just kidding. Scotty Schaeffler at 19 to one. Okay. We're getting better odds on him than most, but the salary is a bit too high for me. And if we want ball striking, like I'll take that. Okay, I'm not gonna, I don't think I'm gonna make this person my win pick, but why is Tommy Fleetwood 55 to one? That feels pretty long. I'm gonna reserve my take on that one. What? I like Tommy, but I think that's a fair number. Okay, well. I mean, like Jason Daze 55, Gary Woodland, Taylor Gooch. I think that's, I think that's justifiable there. Oh no. Oh no. Am I about to do something that I regret? Probably. I can go Henley or Sergio at 55 if I had to pick someone. No, no. I also considered Sambar into 47 or 46, but I can't quite get there myself. That's the one you're thinking of. That's what I'm gonna regret, baby. Sambar and it's 46 to one. I just like, I think we wouldn't be, like if he makes a cut and finishes 50th, it's just like objectively not a good event in the most recent three events. What's his, what are his odds? Like is he 32 with Hatton and Scott at that point or like 36, like Paul Casey? Oh, you're saying if he was- Like if he makes a cup and finishes poorly in those three events or he does a cut, like what are his odds? Oh, I mean, he would probably be like 37 with Horschel or something. Yeah. So give me 46. I've got Sam Burns and John Rom this week. You have Sung Jae and Victor Hovlin, correct? No, Scotty Schaeffler. No. Hovlin's 15, you said 19. I was very confused. Okay, Scotty Schaeffler. Okay, so you're going with the studs, I'm going with a stud and John Rom for this week as my win picks. That is all that we have here for the Arnold Palmer Invitational Podcast. Bring any final words for you to the good people before they go off to fill out their lineups for this week. Check the weather and tea times and then also be willing to give more credence to the guys you're not hearing a lot of buzz about if you think that they're not that far away from the guys you're hearing talk to a lot this week. And let's get John Rom a win to make me happy for this week. That is all that we have here for today on the Heat Check Fantasy Podcast. But as mentioned, we have NBA, NHL, UFC and NASCAR podcasts coming at you all throughout the week here on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy Podcast. So go find that wherever you get your podcasts and if you like what you hear, leave us a rating and review as well. Brandon, if people have questions for you on Twitter, where can they find you there? Macadal13, G-D-U-L-A-1-3. So helpful. I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, G-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the FanDual Podcast Network at FanDual Podcast. Big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your PGA DFS lineups. We'll talk to you once again next week. This has been the Heat Check Fantasy Podcast powered by Number Fire.