 Let's jump over to our man Teddy Kegs that we talked to Teddy folks every Wednesday at 40 past the hour You can reach Teddy every trading day at his website for X dash trading dash unlock calm Teddy Kegs that what's happening man I mean Tommy good morning So we have a few moves going on in the forex market cat Teddy. We have crude Holding that some pretty lofty levels right now coming off the Memorial Day weekend. We got some OPEC newest potentially Where do you want to kick things off this morning? Well, why don't we talk about the crude and interest rate markets since they're definitely helping to drive What's going on in the currencies right now? We have a little flip in the dollar about to happen So obviously if crude is trending higher higher move highs and higher move lows, especially on the daily and the hourly I think we're gonna continue to batter resistance. I think we're gonna keep on probing those highs I think we're gonna definitely start to You know the momentum is gonna build it's just gonna keep on building I see us at a 120 to 125 in the not too distant future without a doubt So yeah, I got the chart up on a daily. I mean we just got above those recent highs, right? The only thing on that chart really is that initial spike to 130 What we hit yesterday pretty close. We get to 120 198 Yeah, the way the way we came out of the gate through the holiday with oil right now The bowls are in place, you know that part of the that is definitely I think I mean higher move highs and higher move lows What do you look at? What else can you say, you know, and so we have some type of? Divergence at least from that to see some sort of neutral trade setup I don't think that's gonna happen Then we also have the but the Treasury bond market and the 10-year market where they had a very very big sell-off Now the interesting thing is that the dollar has been basically in a downside correction for the past couple of weeks So the euro has been a little bit stronger than it had been but not that much The pound's been holding up but a lot of other currencies have gained a little bit of ground So they're all in a corrective phase. I think we're as this week in the next week We're coming into the end of that so there still could be a dollar spike to the lows But right now I think you're starting to find a bottom as far as with the dollar index Meaning that the euro is running out of gas and that's the one especially it's one of the strongest currencies out there You know, it's the biggest in the dollar index. It's having trouble with resistance, you know Like you can't sustain a rally, you know It had a nice corrective move over the past couple of weeks But the momentum is waning and I think that we're starting to see that dollar strength is gonna come back in a very very big way Especially as we head into a you know the middle of June and into July Yeah, that euro-us dollar man. I had it on a daily. I put it on a weekly I mean just basically a straight drop since February 7th from 1 15 almost a 103 49 so 103 5 Yeah, that's a bounce, but I hear you I mean if I put a trend line on that chart, you know You're barely out of the downtrend that's pretty steep on the euro-us dollar major trends are coinciding right now very well Where you have the dollar index correcting you have the Treasury bond market that's been correcting to the upside You know and and it's as an even with oil So now as we have the Treasury bond market is starting to spike out and run out of gas to the upside It looks like the bears are coming back, you know, that's the same thing that's going on with the dollar Those bowls of the dollar bowls are coming back the interest rate bears are coming back And as though if those two start to come together, you know, you're gonna see bat Definitely the euro is starting to collapse again and the and the US dollar Swiss Frank I think that's one to really watch out for because it came out It went above parity and had a very big correction of especially concerning if you look at most of the currencies the yen and they send And the Swiss have corrected the most Okay, and now I think they're gonna go when they go back to the upside They're going to make new highs. We're gonna see the US dollar Swiss above parity again So that's a pretty good Intermediate term trade. I mean, this is not gonna happen over the next couple of sessions But I guarantee you especially the Swiss It's not gonna just trend and grind higher like I hate, you know A quarter point over a day over the course of weeks when it is gonna start to move And if you're gonna have a couple days where you're gonna probably see like two basis handles without a doubt You know as it starts to get towards parity That is quite a chart man from April 4th 92 cents to just above parity and then back to 96 in a heartbeat That's some volatility man, right? There's a nice right there. You talked about the interest rate pretty remarkable I had the chart of the tenure even up here You're sitting almost back a couple months to where we were as you chopped around a bit I was talking about at the beginning of my program that the feds gonna be rolling off the balance sheet starting in June That the numbers they're using it's pretty interesting I was talking about Kevin Hicks saying that you know, they're gonna be rolling off I think it's 47.5 billion total that's gonna be 30 billion in Treasury securities and 17.5 and mortgage backed But they can't they're there they have maturities expiring Teddy. They're over the 30 billion So they're still gonna be reinvesting like 18 billion dollars this month of Treasury securities Do you see that baked in I asked Kevin a similar question, you know, because it's an important one Right as in we coming down the line here Do you see that baked in or do you see rates potentially raising higher rising higher as we come into a fed hiking and hiking cycle? And we got another meeting in two weeks from today. I think they announce Yeah, actually I do I think like right now if the bonds actually do get a rally It's gonna be one last head fake I think that as we move into June and going into July you're gonna see the bonds trend a lot lower and Remember these expirations that you're talking about also coincide with futures expiration So you're gonna have futures options and cash Deliverables expiring all at the same time. That's gonna cause a lot of crazy volatility And now I would say probably from around June 10th to about June 25th, you know Like that that window of 1415 days I think you're gonna see a lot of erratic moves in the Treasury bond market It's gonna be really hard to gauge direction during that time because you're gonna have an unloading of all these things You know what I mean? So I mean and I know that's a dynamic a lot of people don't understand We don't need to get in the mechanics of it But that time frame of out of those expirations, especially with combined with the cash I think is really gonna be a tough trade. So the trends are intact You know, keep stick to your guns on that but be very careful if you're an intraday trader during that window Yeah, I found it amusing. I saw one article was talking about I think maybe the minutes of the recent Fed meeting and saying that a Couple of the Fed governors were uncertain of how that type of a roll-off would go and I say if if anybody says you're certain Man, you're crazy. How could you be certain you're rolling off something? You know, I mean, of course We should be uncertain anybody that tells you they know how it's gonna go You at least got to be prepared for for some unforeseen situations when you're talking about that type of a roll-off, man well, Teddy, we appreciate the time we appreciate the conversation as always man and We'll talk to you a week from today, man. Now crude. Let's finish it up. So we're sitting out. We got about 30 seconds, Teddy Crude at about 120 you talked about it last week saying, you know playing this market very difficult with the volatility when I ask you Maybe looking at some of the currencies Could you talk about that again for a quick 30 seconds for the listeners? I didn't check it out how you might be able to trade crude. Go ahead. Absolutely that goes with the US dollar yen trade The US dollar Swiss trade for sure as crude oil starts to rally You're gonna see they're good. They're those that's giving strength to those two for sure Be very careful with the US dollar Canada. That's gonna be very choppy as crude starts to rally Awesome, man. And look at the chart of that yen, man. Yeah, quite a bounce in the last few days to 129 28 Inching towards that 130 mark. Well, Teddy, man, we appreciate the time as always the education and we'll talk to you a week from today, man Thanks, Tommy. See you next week. Okay. Thanks