 Hey guys, it's MJ, the student-actry, and welcome back to our series on probability paradox. So in the last video, we had the lovely decision where one of the boxes contained a million dollars and we decided whether we're going to choose it. Whereas in today's video, I'm sad to say, but it's a lot darker. What's happened is you've been captured by a bunch of crazy psycho terrorists. And these terrorists are about to play a very, very ugly game with you. What they're going to do is they're going to take a gun, it's one of those old-school guns. I don't know how to draw a gun, it's got a little chamber and then a little trigger. Anyway, that is our gun, think of it like a cowboy gun. It's a cowboy gun and there are six spaces in the barrel, so six spaces in the barrel. And what the crazy terrorists have done is they have put two bullets inside the barrel and this is important in consecutive order. So they've put the bullets in consecutive order inside the barrel. And what they do is they take this gun and they put it towards your head. And they say to you, okay, we're going to shoot, okay, no, you shouldn't be smiling, you're upset, your body gets shot, okay, you're not smiling, that's a terrible face. So yeah, they've got the gun, they've got it to your head, they spin it and they say, we're going to shoot you and if you don't die, we're going to let you go. This is their sick game. So they spin the barrel and they pull the trigger and fortunately you survive, it's a blank. Okay, so they've shot the gun, it is a blank. And this is where the game comes in. The terrorists give you two choices, okay, choice number one is to re-spin the barrel. Choice number two is not to re-spin. Which one do you do? And they say, if it's another blank, we're going to let you go, you can return to your country's embassy, all is forgiven, we're going to be best mates. But if you get shot, well then, you know, your brains will be, yeah, no longer in your head. Okay, that's quite dark. Sorry about that. Okay, so what do you do? After the terrorist has pulled the gun and it's been a blank, are you going to re-spin it with choice number one or are you not going to re-spin it? Choice number two. Now, what I want you to do is pause the video and come up with the answer yourself quickly. Quickly pause the video and think about what your answer is going to be. Okay, great. Now you can un-pause the video, although I don't know if you could hear that instruction. Well, anyway, I hope you're back to the video. Back to the video. And what's interesting is that a lot of people choose choice number one. So if you chose choice number one, congratulations, you're like the majority of people, you know you're like a little sheep. But what if I told you that choice one is the wrong decision and it's more likely to get you killed? Okay, now that's kind of crazy thinking because you're thinking if they re-spin it, there's more blank barrels than bullet barrels. And we've already used up one of our blank barrels. So by re-spinning, I should be refreshing the blank barrel. That's the school of thought there. And so you would say you have a one in three chance of getting shot. And you're correct. You do have a one in three chance because when you re-spin, there's two bullets, there's six potential spaces, you know, really hardcore maths. You can see that two six is the same as one third. So you have a 33% chance of dying in, by doing choice one. But choice two, you only have a 25% chance of dying. And if you're really good at mathematics, you'll notice that 25% is less than 33%. Now, a lot of you are probably saying, no, no, this can't be true. How can choice two be the better option when we've used up one of our blanks? Well, let me show you the power of conditional probability and why you should always understand the mechanics of devices when using probability. So let's say this is our gun barrel. Remember, the two bullets are in consecutive order. That's that's crucial pieces of information. Remember, we know that a gun rotates after it shoots. Okay, that's how that's how guns work. Okay, so if you had to re-spin, you could see one, two, two out of six. There we go. That's a third, but if you don't re-spin, what an effect you've done is you've reduced the state of the various ones that you're exposed to. Because because you're being told that the first shot was a blank, it means your space has been reduced from all six bullets to just the four bullets that were blanks. Okay, so before we had six potential ones, now we only have four potential ones because we were told that the previous one was a blank. Now, if it's this one, we've got one, two, three, four. So we have four instead of six. But if it was this one, you're safe because it's a blank that follows up. Number two, you're safe because it's a blank that follows it. Three, you're safe because there's a blank that follows it. It's only blank number four where you actually get shot, which means it is only one-fourth. And like I said, one-fourth is 25% chance of getting shot. So this is a very, very educational video. If you guys ever find yourself doing some James Bond work and you get caught by some crazy terrorists and they decide to play this ridiculously insane game with you and you're fortunate enough to survive the first blank and they're generous enough to give you two choices between choice one and choice two, you can be like, oh, I remember MJ's video and he showed me how to beat the terrorists at their own game and how it's actually silly to choose choice number one and it's better to actually choose choice number two. So don't spin because they're in a consecutive order. If the bullets were not in consecutive order, hmm, then would you spin or wouldn't you spin? Let me know in the comment section below and like always, hit subscribe. What else do the kids do these days? There's liking videos, you can share videos. Can you poke a video? I don't think you can poke a video. But do whatever you need to do. This encourages me to keep making these types of videos. So let me know if you've enjoyed it. Next week we'll be seeing another probability paradox video. Hopefully it won't be as dark and dingy as this one. Thanks guys so much for watching. Cheers.