 Hello and welcome to this week's Supply and Demand Fundamental and Technical Analysis for the Week, a head start in the 13th of August, so let's get into this week's upcoming news. So next week, investors will eagerly follow the FOMC Minutes Release for additional insights into the Fed's plan for the remainder of the year, so that involves, obviously, their interest rate hikes and whether they're going to be hiking or holding, and even cutting some analysts predict this year. In the US, retail sales and industrial production will also be in the spotlight elsewhere. The upcoming week is poised to bring a flurry of significant economic releases, including China at industrial production and retail sales, GDP and inflation for the Eurozone, Japan GDP growth and inflation, Germany economic sentiment inflation, unemployment, unemployment, sorry, and retail sales for the UK, Canada, CPI, Australia unemployment data and interest rate decisions from the new Zealand, the RBNZ. So lots to look for this week's of market moving news, price moving news. And for those of you who are in the private mentoring discourse group, just to give you a quick reminder that I have released the members only weekly fundamental and weekly technical analysis, which goes into a lot more depth with the fundamentals and technicals. You can go into the trading videos channel for that one. So going to and starting off on the dollar index and really dollar index wise. Last week, we had it was all eyes on inflation and US inflation metrics kind of were diverging and complicating the outlook for a cool down. So inflation expectations unexpectedly fell in August, which was good news. But in the meantime, producer prices rose in July by more than forecast that are several different inflation measures that kind of diverging. And that is important really because the Federal Reserve want to see inflation come down so that they can make, I guess, an easier decision when it comes to interest rates, whether they will likely to hold or hike if it's coming down and likely to hold. And if it's not, and it remains sticky, then they could hike. And so it says here the divergence suggests uneven path ahead for inflation that is otherwise moderating data out Thursday showed an underlying measure of consumer prices posted its smallest back to back increase in two years. It also hopes that the Federal Reserve contain price pressures, which is inflation without sparking a recession. And that is really the balancing act, right? And so it says Friday's data are important to the central bank's calculus as to how they'll proceed with policy from here while officials will take comfort in seeing inflation expectations coming down several categories in a producer price index report be directly into a separate inflation metric preferred by the Fed and they jumped in July. So I don't think the Fed's job is done just yet or it could be or could be not. It's very 50-50 at the moment. And I say 50-50 but on the CME Fed watch tool the market seems to think that there's a 90% chance of a hold, right? In September, the 20th this is no change here and a 10% chance of a hike. But with inflation continuing to kind of be sticky, there is the opportunity or the chance that within the next how many days just 38 days this could obviously change right now with all the data that we have it's here 90%. But if you start to see this start to come lower and the probabilities come lower for a hold and in fact that would mean that it's likely to be an increased probability of a hike you could actually see the dollar start to increase in value and that would be driven more by obviously the data that comes out. So looking at the dollar index, you're really kind of seeing on the on the daily timeframe chart any pullbacks into a level of demand really I would say and couple demand with areas of support and resistance as well whether that's horizontal or diagonal dynamics so that'd be a horizontal support and resistance so you can see where really price has been traded recently support there support there got a little bit of resistance in supporting within that demand zone. So then you're looking for trades in and around if prices come in and around that area there not necessarily in the dollar index but you can use this as confidence prices come down to the 101s then you're looking for potential buys if you want to be a buyer of the dollar on other currency pairs if that aligns with other technicals on you know those those currencies that you're looking to trade and if you're looking to get short on the dollar then again you're looking at this supply zone up above and then looking for some sort of bearish candle on on this area with some in anticipation of some sort of you know dollar weakness right on the technicals and some fundamentals as well so for me it's a difficult one the dollar I think against some currencies like for example the New Zealand dollar I think it's still a buy but against something like the pound I'm not too sure I'd probably lean towards buying the pound over the dollar so there are cases and reasons to buy the dollar but there are also reasons to short the dollar so and this happens right this is normal not everything is an all out buy or an all out sell there are reasons to buy and sell so I'm leaning more towards the potential buy on the dollar but not against every currency so so yeah that's where we are with that so either way now looking at the the dollar yen and the dollar yen is something that I am actually bearish on so I'm quite bullish on the yen in the short term I definitely understand that this this the 144 145 level may or may not hold now when it comes to the the yen the yen this week in Bloomberg was talking about yen dips the weakest since 2008 against the euro and eyes 145 per dollar so the Japan first intervened last year when the yen reached 146 per dollar right and so if we scroll down to this chart here you know we're we're at a level where potentially approaching the 146 is where Japan and I was zooming a little bit more conducted yen buying intervention for the first time since 1998 now the bank of Japan do not want to see the yen weaken and because a weaker yen and a devalued yen adds to inflation and what central banks are trying to do is keep inflation at their target which is 2% now if inflation if again like I said in prices keep rising and go above that then the central bank typically tends to step in or can step in and it did um you know last year in September so uh with that being said there may be an invisible hand which won't allow prices to go beyond maybe certain zones right so um you're starting to look at an area like the 147s 146s uh from a technical analysis perspective it's supplied there and then you've also got actually in fact of your supply pretty much this whole zone so the higher price goes you know is the more likely you are to see the central bank of Japan uh look to actually push prices to the downside so this has nothing to do with um you know some sort of technical pattern is the cause of a reversal right this is um you know there there are things going on beyond the price chart that you have to be aware of and so um as prices go higher central bank intervention tends to come into play um well in this case on the yen and uh yeah that's what I'm looking for for a potential um short trade so there are is there's obviously an immediate opportunity to look for some short trades here if that doesn't work out then look for well I'm looking for anyway um short trades in and around these areas in anticipation of um the central bank intervening but if you do want to continue buying the dollar then you're looking at that area of demand right there and then pretty much a potential pullback into that zone the 142s before looking at getting long and in fact if you're going to add a level of horizontal uh support and resistance you can see that level there's also been traded there so not only are there supply and demand traders in there or demand traders in there there'll be support and resistance traders in there because you've got a level that has been traded there and bounced off of uh the uh that area the 142s so so dollar yen um for me looking to be a short trade uh dollar swiss dollar swiss I think is um something it's it's it's quite interesting if I'm looking to be a buyer of the dollar um over the swiss franc which there are reasons to sorry I would really look for areas around the pullback down into that zone there currently we are um bouncing off of this long-term level of resistance and so um but prices haven't really sold off they've been supported at the moment there are intraday trades that kind of beyond this area um or the scope of this video which is more you know stop hunts etc but um from a supply daily supply and demand perspective pull back into that zone there if you're looking to get short price hasn't really proved that there's strong supply here so at the moment the nearest area and this price is actually pulled you know do sell off then pull back into an area of supply and then you're looking for a short trade or you're looking for the nearest short trade to be up at these highs if you're trading uh supply and demand there's obviously you know resistance in and around that area as well but um I don't necessarily trade uh support and resistance solely first comes supply and demand then the addition of um any kind of a technical analysis like support and resistance so um moving on to the dollar CAD and the uh the canadian dollar uh this week really hasn't held up um too well kind of pulled back a bit and this is um kind of due to the fact that uh canadian interest rate expectations have uh lowered so you've got the movement in uh basis points and that's plus 25 points in september's um probability for a rate hike of 25 basis points is at the moment 20 percent so um doesn't look great for the um for the canadian dollar at the moment in terms of uh currency appreciation if you're looking to buy the canadian dollar but um you do have um uh the the the u.s. dollar and because inflation is kind of sticky it looks like dollar is kind of appreciating against the um the CAD for the minute right until we find some sort of auction or some sort of range now this could be the top of the range let's see uh what happens here this is a decent area I do like this area as a technical area to look for a short but that means that you would have to really be convinced that the canadian dollar is a you know buy over the u.s. dollar which personally I'm not really convinced so um I'm gonna I'm staying out of this trade it's not really on my list of things to trade there is in fact some demand um in here so if you are looking for a pullback I think that area there is really nice for a potential uh buy on the u.s. dollar against the canadian dollar so you've got that new zealand dollar u.s. dollar um this makes all the sense in the world to get short at the moment and um again it was there was kind of d-day of course with with inflation but with inflation remaining a bit sticky um and the rbnz not looking to high crates anytime soon I do think that um the the power for these resistance is to the downside there is now some hidden supply which kind of covers that area there and really I think it's just to move back up to uh this area somewhere around taebin the highest there before looking at getting short and um yeah I think there is also also an area level of support and resistance within that top end of that supply zone that has been traded you can pull that back and you can see it's been traded there as well it's been traded there so their institution is definitely buying and selling doing business around there and so anything any pullbacks into that area is nice you've also got from an intraday perspective I think you've also got that level there so you could go down into like the one hour 30 minute to 15 minute if you trade those timeframes and look for you know trades either in and around that's 0.605 area or 6120 I think the 6120 6110 probably going to be the better areas to look for a um a trade if you're looking to take that to the short side um the pound dollar so pound dollar uh fundamentally we've got the UK economy surprises with strongest growth in more than a year so figures indicate momentum that fans case for more rate of hikes manufacturing construction and consumer spending all stronger so more rate hikes by the bank of England um that's being supportive of the um of the pound at the moment there is some some news this week I think we've also got what we've got we've got unemployment rate inflation rate year on year as well and retail sales so as long as that data does continue to support rate hikes you should see the pound appreciate now against the the dollar you may see you know prices be limited to the kind of the upside unless they're expected to kind of trend to the upside unless of course the fed start indicating that there is um they are definitely on hold but I do think the downside is definitely limited in terms of um you know the moves to the downsides I think any price price comes down to uh to here or down to the 125 I think that would be a nice buying opportunity for the pound against the dollar as long as the pounds um uh data does support the buying so at the moment it does there's a nice area of support and resistance as well so you're not only you're you're definitely some decent demand here you've also got um some support and resistance within that area or horizontal support and resistance so um nice uh technically euro dollar now euro is at the moment um in a bit of a tricky place you do have Europe's rising inflation risk gauge is a headache for the ECB so long-term market measures show ECB will struggle with 2% goal so that basically means that they're likely to continue to hike yeah and it says the moves uh come as ECB approaches the end of its hiking cycle so all central banks are you know approaching the end of their hiking cycle but there's a there's a gauge of inflation um that that is measured and it looks like it's the highest since 2010 on monday so the um central bank's goal is to get inflation back down to 2% target and so um uh they could they are likely to continue hiking now there's also this as well bond traders fear ECB hawks as energy jitters return to europe and the gauge for future european inflation risk is steadily climbing ing and rabble bank caution on bond steepening trades so um there was natural gas that ended up um um i think rising by about 30% if i remember correctly uh i think it was somewhere in and around here but um but yeah so with with commodity prices rising that also potentially can add to inflationary pressures it says here money markets are currently pricing in a 40% chance of a 25 basis point hike from the ECB in september with a further 66 basis points of cuts priced in for next year rabble bank echoed the likelihood that ECB will need to show more determination to deal with inflation and that basically means being more hawkish given the risk of further upward energy shocks and so um yeah energy prices energy shocks coming into the market um are likely to push the ECB towards hiking and so if you have you know um uh the ECB hiking and uh that's seen as appreciative of a currency typically then um the downside is likely to be limited so looking at the um the downside potential could see prices pulled back to at least the 10850 some banks are saying that it potentially prices could go down to the 10750s or even the 107s at least in the short term but that also does depend upon uh what happens in the uh in the US but um for now i do think that these levels here i think decent okay level there that's been traded yeah and then you've got um an area here as well so um any pullbacks uh into these zones are decent from a daily demand perspective and again the guys will know as well that there is a stop hunt level in and around here the lows of here so you don't necessarily need to trade with a daily demand when taking uh things like stop hunts or cprs uh setups and so um yeah the the euro dollar bit of a tricky one um at the moment i don't expect major upside or major downside to be fair um so you can trade it either way there's reasons to buy or sell the euro dollar the uh euro yen so again we've had a bit of euro strength and um the euros bit of the yen has been a bit weak uh so far last week but i think again that may be uh capped if the bank of japan start to get involved in uh in intervening in the currency and so any pullbacks into this zone here is going to be uh if you're looking to buy the euro it's going to be decent now if you're looking to short um zooming out i think the nearest level going back out to the weekly is probably somewhere around here that's from you know august 2008 we haven't seen prices this high since 2008 right yeah so um it's it's very difficult to say you know you want to short into basically you're in no man's land around here there is the possibility though um and the guys know the setup that there is a stop hunt this is a large stop hunt with a nice berg order and uh if prices start to come back inside and um that could be seen as a really nice stop hunt on a daily time frame chart not too many traders if any traders really kind of talk about you know uh this area here most traders would think that that level is now gone breakout traders are you know caught what was it caught they're not caught yet but they're in that um that trade at the moment and so um i do think that the liquidity has been taken above the market if the intention is actually for the market to kind of move to the downside but let's see a bit more of a trickier trade to be fair but if you're bullish on the yen then you know and you know about the stop hunt setups and and entry triggers then i think that's going to be a nice um uh short trade to the downside euro pound euro pound again this was a really nice trade setup level level level a nice supply fresh area of supply prices came up there was some uh market moving news which was basically gvp came in better than expected as we've already covered and then prices have gone to the downside now i think the downside may be a little bit limited um my bias is definitely towards more towards buying the pound over the euro but if the euro start getting aggressive with their very high extent again we could see a limited downside maybe down to the end of these uh of this auction this range but um i wouldn't expect it to necessarily trend you know further beyond that i think any pullbacks though um in terms of uh buying the pound if prices go higher i do think that these are really nice areas to look for some short trades providing that of course the the pound is more of the dominant um central bank and more hawkish central bank out of the two if you do want to be a buyer of the euro then that's going to be the first area to look for some buyers and you do have some supportive support resistance in that area um ozzie dollar now again uh yeah the the part for these resistance has been really to the downside with the ozzie dollar and um yeah you can see this uh i saw something the other day which i was talking about in fact the rba may actually look to potentially cut rates right so the market is actually pricing in a decrease to 3.85 which is uh pretty much a bit of a shock um last day it was taken on the 11th of august um the rba actually uh were talking in their announcement saying that there's the capacity to high trades but it looks like the market doesn't necessarily believe that they will when they're actually pricing in um cuts which is uh very very surprising so um looking at uh the price action though on this for me i would probably still look towards uh going short um unless the rba are definitely hawkish um i was starting to position myself actually to go long on the on the australian dollar uh in anticipation of a hawkish central bank but since i saw uh this um i've kind of you know held back now um i've had to kind of pause on that thinking of the market is actually pricing in cuts and so yeah um if they're pricing in cuts i think then we have to see this happen but this also as well can change it's not set in stone if data comes out that you know changes right that that indicates that inflation is sticky that the central bank are looking to high trades this is going to change right this is all dependent upon what happens uh fundamentally so um it's not necessarily a leading indicator it's more um an indicator that just shows what the current thinking is based on the data that we know and that's what you know things like the um cme fedwatch tool is as well as well as the the canadian interest rate expectations they're looking at what we look at in terms of you know the fundamentals you know interest rate hikes holds you know bond yields etc and then they're pricing in the probability of that information um on what they think the central bank will do so that's really and these are just users confirmation tools right to your trade idea so um again looking at the australian dollar a bit of conflicting information the markets not believing the central bank will hike they like they could that in in fact start to cut rates as small as a chance as it is so um for me uh I think the continued downside is um is where I would probably more lean towards now until that narrative does uh change in the the market does price out those rate cuts moving towards the final uh gold and so um with gold there was some news out of china central bank adds more gold for a ninth straight month and china raises gold reserves for a ninth straight month in july a central bank purchases continue to underpin prices of the precious metal so um that is something that is supportive of gold but um at the moment it doesn't like gold is having its um having its way in terms of appreciation I think later on in the year as the dollar you know in all central banks start to hold rates I think gold may actually start to um it is likely to start to move to the upside and central banks really just looking at this is a buying opportunity and so um yeah I think with gold I think technically this is a really nice level the 1900 to 1890s 1880s I think is really really nice you can tell that there's been business done before this was seen as a bargain prices prices moved to the upside and so I do think that that is actually quite nice for a now for a potential sell but this does also depend upon a dollar strength or dollar witness so dollar strength continues in the short term and is supported then you're likely to see prices come to the downside in fact I wouldn't be surprised to see prices actually come down to the 1840s around here but um but yeah as we go into the second half of the year into the final quarter of the year I think we should see gold get supported so those are really your options pull back into as well you've got a nice supply zone here um this area here has been traded as a bit of support and resistance as well so uh there's some confluence in this area right as a pullback into the zone right and then looking for maybe some sort of intraday trade within that area of supply and support and resistance so you can always tighten it up and look at it like that as well so on the daily you got like a wider zone but when you look at the intraday one you've got a very accurate level within that area of supply so yeah some nice levels there technically but again it's just determined upon the direction and really what the market expects gold to do in a short, medium or long term which is driven by you know my favorite word fundamental analysis so anyways guys um stay tuned I've got another video after this which is a group call from last week which explains the effect of GDP on um on interest rates I think you might like it and it might be helpful so it's the end of the weekly analysis but I've got about a 20 minute snippet of a group call um that we had um this group call was probably about maybe about an hour and a half long but it's a 20 minute snippet from that group call last week which actually was outlining why the dollar may appreciate so I mean it looks like that has actually come true so uh I hope you have a great trading week take care and I'll speak to you all soon right welcome all welcome welcome Lawrence welcome Alexandros and uh and Liam uh yes so group call 2nd of August I thought I had it have it in the evening um haven't had it in the evening for a while um and I know some people in the UK prefer uh the evening so I thought I'll switch it up for this week so the 2nd of August 2023 and before we get into the um uh the currency summary report I wanted to go over something I thought was quite important um and um yeah it's basically how GDP forecast effect uh currencies uh welcome uh Amad uh I hope you're doing well and um yeah so how GDP forecast effect currencies right and we're going to talk about the dollar uh a bit later but um it's important to know a few things so a question for you guys in a recession uh what does the central bank typically typically do um with interest rates Amad says oh you have so many names okay so what are you um what's your radius in uh what's your discord um name is it still Amad don't remember oh sunny how you doing mate you're right yeah so uh mr diligent yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah so in it so so the question is in a recession what does the central bank typically do with interest rates does it hike it hold it or cut it cut it john says cut anyone else disagree with john anyone else disagree with john yep no hold yeah potentially of course depends on depending on upon inflation but if we're in a if if we're in a yeah it does depend but typically and that's the way I kind of highlighted typically yeah in a recession yeah you know normally you will have some sort of cut to basically boost the economy get interest rates down um you know to help businesses borrowing and lending you know is cheaper etc and so uh to stimulate the economy what banks typically do with interest rates it's again it's not 100 it's not all the time um but interest uh you have uh rate cuts that's anonymous with um with recessions right and so understanding that the next question right would be you know let's say for example when quarter one of 2023 earlier this year the market consensus was for a country's economy to enter into a recession in q4 of 2023 i said at the end of this year now in q3 yeah the market consensus has changed its forecast to a recession you know of a recession to q4 of 2024 so before it was to be ended this year now it's the end of next year that's what they're forecasting is this expected to be so um is is the currency expected to be supported by the forecast yes or no hopefully you understand the question i'll read that again if you want me to does anyone not understand the question so is the currency expected to be supported by the forecast so beginning of the year 2023 the market consensus was for a country's economy to enter into a recession in q4 of 2023 so by the end of the year now in q3 the market has changed its forecast of a recession yeah instead of q3 of sorry q4 of 2023 it's now forecasting q4 of 2024 is the currency expected to be supported by the forecast bearing in mind what we had in our first question alexander says yes anyone else liam says yes yep that's it exactly it is expected to be supported simply because what we know to be true is that if banks typically cut rates in a recession if now a recession is going to take a bit longer yeah then the market has to price out a recession right because it was pricing in a recession you know towards the end of this year and now it's saying well no in fact you know gdp is holding up stronger than expected so now we're thinking maybe q4 or the recession is going to be prolonged it's going to you know maybe be a bit later so that is actually supportive of a currency so now that has to be you know the recession has to be priced out of the market rather than priced into the market or say priced into the market but priced in um and so which is supportive of a currency yeah and so i like to be a bit visual right and so how you should kind of look exactly alexander this is why the dollar is being supported right so i like to typically look uh or kind of visualize certain things right so imagine we've got um chart here yeah now what we know to be true is let's say we've got currency a and currency b yeah and currency a this is going to be inflation actually i'm going to have to draw this again we've got two charts matter of fact right we've got two charts i'm going to draw two charts one is inflation right one is inflation and the other one is going to be gdp right so let me sorry go to my pencil right so we've got let me let here davidin right so on the inflation chart right and we've got gdp this is obviously time right time time yeah so we have central bank let's say for example central bank a is expected to kind of um inflation is expected to you know rise a little bit kind of tail off yeah and let's say for example we've got the 2 target which is about here yeah and it's forecast to reach their 2 target at some point in let's say for example q1 of next year yeah of 20 of 2024 and then we have um another central bank which is again probably looking to hike and maybe another maybe once again right um and their inflation is also expected to potentially come down um you know to maybe their 2 percent i don't know let's say q2 right q2 is expected to reach their their a 2 target so that's bank b yeah is q2 bank a is q1 right that's that's the that's the forecast right so we're in obviously q3 right now yeah this is where we are right now now you also have bank a now gdp is expected to potentially go into a um a recession let's say for example by the end of the year right so growth has been trending slowly trending down right and this is where a recession is expected to happen and if this is let's say for example this is q uh this is q1 right so that's bank a q1 expected to be in negative growth right two quarters of negative growth or one at least one quarter of negative growth right and then by q2 for example you know that's going to be the where the recession is and then you have bank b who is expected to potentially look to flat line and maybe go into a recession in maybe q4 now actually in fact q i'm gonna do q yeah we'll leave it at that right so from an inflation perspective yeah both central banks have got inflation coming back down to 2% on average right by at least you know q1 or q2 so when you think to yourself okay which one should i buy for example which one should i sell um it's it's kind of 50 50 right it's more of a closer call but when it comes to gdp on the other hand which currency or which you know bank a or b would you likely buy and which one would you likely sell would you likely buy a or sell a or buy b buy b exactly yeah buy b because because if you know country a and central bank a are expecting a recession by at least q1 or q2 right typically what should happen to interest rates and inflation what should inflation do exactly inflation down and a cut absolutely absolutely right and so think about this from the dollar's perspective and as alex on just kind of led to it is that although inflation is coming down yeah to the dollar's 2% target yeah even though the dollar's coming down to 2% target what you have is the fact that you have now the recession being kicked into the long grass right which is now supportive actually of the dollar the market is pricing out potential rate cuts which would have been triggered yeah by a recession so that is now supportive of you know a currency so regardless of what is happening so for example europe have got maybe one or two more cuts yeah exactly and they're not suffering from stagflation unlike euro who are at risk right that's exactly it signing right so although the euro may hike one more time yeah once more in september or they may not right it depends because they're they're kind of on the fence depending on the data the reason why and i've been saying this for months now is that you know to watch gdp because gdp needs to be able to support right not only inflation obviously but it has to support the rate cuts and so if you have as you said stagflation is where you have you know rising inflation or at least sticky inflation but you have a contracting economy it's difficult for the central bank to continue hiking aggressively because as we know hiking rates yeah contracts the economy yeah and so what they what europe don't want to do at the moment is make you know the recession the impending recession because every and the recession is impending because you know you have got an economic cycle right you have boom and you have bust yeah it's coming right this is the society we live in it's going to be booms and busts right you can't stop it from happening the economics the business cycle and so but you but you want to you want to try to prolong the recession yeah the recessionary part of the bus cycle yeah bus part of the cycle and you don't want to speed that up by hiking rates yeah and so they're very very cautious what they want is inflation to come down naturally rather than the rather than it being induced by hiking rates because otherwise in the future what's going to end up happening is this where you have recessions now being forecasted sooner rather than later yeah because remember all central banks now we just had the australian dollar hold rates we've had um uh then we had some new zealand i'll get i'll get into all of this in a little bit but we had new zealand um you know jobs data come out which came in lower than expected um which basically also unemployment came in uh higher than expected i think it was unemployment anyway and basically that justified the fact that they're probably not likely to to hike rates um and other central banks like you know the u.s the federal reserve are still kind of on the fence with regards to hiking rates or holding rates at the moment a hold is being priced in more than hikes but at the end of the day every central bank now is probably on one more rate hike yeah so if they're everyone at every central bank is on one rate hike or they're holding in the short term you're probably you can probably see some divergence between maybe central banks that have held rates and one and maybe some that are still hiking rates yeah or hiking or gonna hike one more time but that divergence is now diminishing because by september october november by the end of this year most central banks should be done providing inflation is on its way down to the two percent target right we're gonna we're gonna assume this yeah so then the next narrative becomes what who is gonna be first to avoid a recession and at the moment it looks like between just picking on obviously europe and the u.s exactly it looks like bank b right in europe not doing so well yeah so in the short term and how does that translate into price what you typically will see from a from a price perspective or you may see in a from a price perspective is um you know you can see arguments or the arguments but you can see you can see it both ways in terms of buys and sells what you should see is more of an auction or a ranging market you might see something like this right where price might be making its way lower or higher but what you won't see is an out and out trending market like what we've seen yeah now this is providing that everything obviously lines up right you have the wild cog which is china yeah so if china start to grow then money's going to go out of the u.s. dollar right that's just how it goes in terms of you know investment um you know dollar being more of a safe haven currency etc right but if china at the moment is not supporting europe it's not supporting the commodity currencies like australian dollar the canadian dollar for example new zealand dollar right it's not supporting these currencies at the moment so as long as this scenario continues to me the edge it's not an out and out buy not an out and out sell you know it's not 100 of you know 10 percent like this is just dealing with probabilities at the moment i think the dollar is being supported yeah by the fact that at least in the short term um the fact that we you know uh there is going to be you know the analogy is a soft landing yeah it's a soft landing yeah now there there is going to be a period where you probably might see the dollar start to you know contract and maybe might be a week or two where the dollar starts to fall but overall you're going to see or what i predict anyway or forecast is going to be a range of some sort right it's going to be a range the dollar will be a buy at certain levels and in certain ways the upside is going to be capped simply because of the fact that you know they're not good they're going to be the first to kind of maybe we'll say first but they might hold rates you know before europe yeah but then as i said the narrative is going to switch to gdp so be on the lookout for that change all right ego is always saying that you got um uh as as ego always says and i've got to agree the dollar is king well kings get the throne right so you know you've got to be careful with yeah exactly for now right at the moment and it's even say to say it's king is is is a tough one because um there are it's not an out as i said it's not an out buy but if i'm looking you know let's say for example you know towards the end of the year three to six months yeah into the future right and just looking at the overall trend of things between you know europe and and the u.s. dollar i think the upside to the euro is capped at the moment i do think it is but again the wild card is china right that i think holds the key to um yeah exactly be be on alert right so this is just a trade idea and the data needs to support the narrative right the trade idea must support um say must for the area the data must support the trade idea yeah so as long as you still have supportive data yeah for your for the trade idea to buy the u.s. dollar then that is cool so we had for example um is it is it the adp uh jobs for example that came out way above um consensus and we saw the dollar you know basically rise it's because the market is pricing out a recession which means less need in the future for rate cuts so that is being priced out although in the short term we could say all right then well they might be holding sooner that's negative in comparison to europe who are you know still continuing to potentially hike but over the you know the medium term you can say in fact the dollar won't be you know the euro the you for me anyway the euro is not going to fly to like 115 do you know what i mean or 120 that's going to be um it's going to be a bit of a stretch at the moment considering the data that we all that we have at the moment and as long as the dollar keeps defying all the data then ultimately that's basically what we have right so