 Welcome to the channel. This is reliable Rudy in this video. We're gonna be making our part to charting video over BTI British American tobacco. It's actually the fifth video. I'll be making on this So if you're not up to date make sure you go back and watch those videos I go over a lot of good information some red flags some good things about the company in general and Ultimately that is how we got these projections for the company and this valuation for the company and And more in particular for this charting video. We're gonna focus on matching up this valuation to the chart We're gonna go more into the short term in my first charting video We talked more about the history of the stock now. We're gonna be focused on the short term I'm gonna go over a bull case scenario a bear case scenario How one could go about positioning into this stock based off this valuation and yeah I think you're gonna like what we got for you in this charting video. I also don't have any Video request after this video. This is gonna complete our BTI series So if you guys got a ticker you want me to make a a series of videos on I do prefer profitable stocks But I will take any requests and I will prioritize those videos over any other videos But nonetheless, I'm not a licensed financial advisor. Everything in this video contains only my opinion and it's for entertainment purposes only I have no individual holding in BTI. I have nothing to gain nothing to lose not even in my index funds Simply just stating my opinion. Okay, so going over to BTI So we kind of left it how we left off from the last video we have our uptrend My channel is not set, but we do have a channel that is built in right here give or take right around there pretty parallel channel and Yeah, we are still in Intact for this for this extension Yeah, so we are not a fully extended stock. We've had a pretty solid sell-off following the 2017 acquisition Very interesting how this panned out leading up to that acquisition Yeah, very interesting stuff, but nonetheless, we're gonna take this fib tool off and we're gonna Start by going over a couple details run a week chart right here. So we're gonna switch over to a day chart Now a couple things that I want to point out when you're in big falls like this. I always normally Have a fib tool retraced out right here now I have it down to the initial fall because we do get a nice ABC correction off of this fall We do get a nice little fall right here. You could take this to the bottom, but ultimately, you know It does match up right there. We get some nice action at my first retracement But nonetheless, I like how this matches up more here at this first retracement We do get direct contact with my 382 retracement right there Now one thing that I would be interested in is this price action and how close we are to our long-term uptrend But we do go over this it is actually the back test of our neckline over here We have a left leg double bottom extended right leg back test of the neckline that just so happens to meet in off of my down trend Pretty interesting how that kind of corresponds right there. Yeah, if you haven't seen the last video a lot of great information there So make sure you go look at that But nonetheless, let's go over some of these case scenarios. So right here. We're in a retracement right here How could we possibly get down to this long-term trend line? What if we don't reach that long-term trend line? Okay, this is one thing that I would be looking for in terms of this. We do have a decent fall right here I would want to take a fib tool top the move bottom move now We have this double top structure that comes in between my 702 and 786 Could you say that this is a 702 retracement? Yeah, you could I When you get a double top in like this the first thing that's gonna go to my head is that it's potential that we are getting a five-wave structure with this being a wave 2 and Do I consider this a wave 3? I don't I meant talk about that here in a second But ultimately if we did get a wave 3 that cracks that support I'd look for a back test of wave 1 where we then would get a wave 5 now If we do get a wave 5 that means we are going to come in contact with this long-term trend line Where are we coming in contact with this long-term trend line? Do we get bought up based off of demand and not ever get a full wave 5 to come in? And then we turn bullish off this long-term trend line It's all tough to say and you need more information But nonetheless we do have a lot of gaps that need to be filled down here But keep in mind that this is a foreign stock And foreign stocks a trade on different exchanges So when they open on the NASDAQ the prices normally are going to gap up or gap down based off the trading action in those foreign exchanges So you do have to keep that in mind and it's something something that you that is important to understand when trading foreign stocks But nonetheless if we did get something like this transpire and we got some good volume off this trend line How would I play this so meeting up right here just in particular now? I know that it we still have a long ways to go a lot of Information is still needed before we get there But if we were to meet this trend line somewhere in here We are really getting close To this first middle point right here. I'm going to just mark out a couple lines real quick For that window so that starts around 3550 we'll just put it right there and that window goes down to 31 and Some change we'll see about 3150. So this is basically my middle assumption right here Now just looking at the gap fills inside of this. We got a gap right there Gap right there Gap right there. We got two gaps right here. I'm just gonna put one line for that We do have a gap right here. We got a gap right here now How are you gonna know how to? Potentially start filling out a position now the way now going back to the everything money software I like to buy this middle assumption That is just me and if I'm being greedy in the middle of my low and middle assumptions But ultimately when we get down to this low assumption and I'm looking to fully build on my position I want my position to be around 3% Now I've stated before that anytime I'm starting a position. I always start with a tracker share Now if we were to get some price action down in these ranges, when am I going to start that tracker share? When am I going to up that position now? I can see that the start of my of my of my window that I'm looking to buy Is a little bit below my trend line. So that's very interesting They say the least but is there any other information that we can see in here now? I'm going to quickly touch base with why isn't this a crack of support. So if I'm saying this is my way of one, right? Okay, we trade below it. That's a crack of support, right? No, not necessarily because we get right back on top of it right away and we actually only set one close We do set two closes below that but what's really interesting is this gap filled right here now? I'm going to mark this line with a different color. I'm going to mark that with a red line I'm actually going to get rid of this right here and we're going to change this color to something I Will go Something that's easy to see we'll go this light blue color Okay, so you see how we fill this gap now on our first initial drop, which is our wave one You see how we never break below this? I'm sure there was a pretty solid order set right there Right below this gap. They did not want this gap to get filled Now it just so happens that on this when you could consider this a crack of support this wicks through That gap fill and we actually do turn bow a short term now. Is there anything else that I see? Corresponding right here off of this double top into the 702 and there definitely is you get a fall You get a retrace You get a crack of support After that crack support you back test pretty much the you set this double top into the bottom of my wave one Pretty close. It does extend but we we get a couple clothes above it But ultimately we get this double top structure coming and then you do get an exhaustive wave down to fill this gap Fill it's not forget that this fills this gap right there on the money almost I mean beautiful entry if you had this identified And at the end of a five-wave structure now We're gonna go over a quick bull case scenario because we do have a clear five-wave structure right here now I would want to see what this shorter term retraces and this ultimately never set to close above my 702 Go figure and we put a wick into our last retracement to 786 How interesting is that I mean do you think anybody went short in right here? I would be shocked if people think that that people didn't go short right here because this is a hard rejection off my 702 And we get a clear five-wave structure that goes off of that Now how could this transpire into something that's a bullish now? We are at the end of a five-wave structure now I'm looking for some sort of double bottom some sort of higher low now during this whole course in time You have a high you have a lower high you have a lower high Lower high lower high in the same time period you have a lower low Lower low lower low now because we set this lower high right here Does that mean that we're gonna set a lower low? Not necessarily Because we do have some gap fills right here if we get some if we get some good volume off as some of these gaps I'm gonna get rid of this line right here cuz I got my point across right there Now we do have some gap fills right here and these two are in particular this one gets filled This one gets filled the following day But these two are open gaps if we get this is a buying window right here If we get some good volume and we get a higher low set in people are automatically gonna set that trend line And the one thing they're gonna be looking for is a break of this high If they get a break of this high built off of this second higher low right here You know it's possible that this gets bullish and we never ultimately reach our long-term trend line I'm gonna put that trend line back in I Mean ultimately this is where our long-term trend line is that and if if this starts turning bullish and we never reach this You know, it's possible that we actually do get a push now a bull case scenario The first thing on my mind is that we're looking for a 618 or a 702 retracement The same the same way that I'm always looking at at the first retracement I'm looking for that 702 retracement now if we are able to buy this gap What type of run are we looking at? Headset went out there Always seems to go out when I'm trying to record a video But nonetheless if we are to get some type of 702 retracement when we're looking for a 54% run right there. I Mean I would say that's a bull case scenario, but if we are able to push through that 702 I mean if I go back to this original retracement are looking for my extension I mean $100 is not out of the range and it just so happens that that meets in pretty much with my first extension Right here. Isn't it funny how how these two extensions correlate like that? I mean, I'll leave that up to you guys decide, but I think that's very interesting right there How this first extension off of this drop meets him with my full extension off of this drop back in 2008? I mean, I'll leave that to you guys, but I think that's that's mind-boggling right there But I am going to take these retracements off and Yeah, I mean there's so much information to go over it's very tough to say But if you are starting to fill position off right here You know if you think that it's starting to turn bullish right here And you were looking at this as a buying opportunity and you like the valuation of the company You know buy a tracker share that way you have it in your portfolio and you're able to To easily monitor the stock and if you and if you're wrong and we get a crack at this support and we start reverting back down to this trendline Okay, maybe this trendline is an area where we can start actually building out that position now me personally I'm probably not going to be buying this this First buying window right here, but I wouldn't I wouldn't be surprised if we set some sort of of higher low and Off of either of these gaps I mean you're at the end of tail end of a five-wave structure You're looking for the double bottom to come in if good volume comes in right here I mean, it's not out of the question, but it does have a lot of Resistance that's got to be beating you got a downtrend right here. You got a downtrend right here. I Mean and you got a down. I mean you there's so many different ways that you can map in a downtrend right there And none of it looks very good when I'm doing it on my chart to say the least But it's gonna have a it's gonna have a tough fight and actually do have some of the moving averages pulled up over here On yahoo and this double top that came in double topped right into my 50 got hard rejected We gap down now this could be a bullish look. This is a green candle. We gap down we fill the gap and It gets a little bit of a sell-off, but we do still have one more gap that is right here If I were to mark that on my chart This gap is still Below a it would be a triple top into this 50 day and if I were to see that okay We're probably gonna come down and test these gap fills down here, which just so happens to be my hundred on a weekly We got 200 weekly moving average. We did get an exit of the commodity just recently That could be a catalyst to start turning bullish and we don't even go fill those gaps I mean it I mean it's all it's all possible But nonetheless We do have this double top come in at my 702 if I was looking for a an entry into this stock I'm looking for a crack of this support, you know, I can get rid of this five wave structure right here I mean you guys you guys hopefully get the point But nonetheless if we do get a crack of that support We're gonna come down here and if we get any type of rejection off the bottom of my wave one, you know We're coming down to this trend line. It's gonna be inevitable I'm telling you guys that right now and just so happens this trend line is actually getting really close to my middle assumptions right there Where we like the valuation of the stock So yeah starting to build a position in right here and if we're wrong in our analysis and we actually get a crack of this trend line Okay, let's go look at the left of the chart. Do we have more gaps in here? Yeah 32 looks like a pretty good area just off a first glance I mean it didn't take me too long to identify this gap right here Got some pretty solid support built in there even dating back to the left over here now if we even go lower I'm sure there's a gap filling that drop But if we have to we'll go over to the left of our chart even more I mean our low assumptions is 23 to 27 are there any gap fills in this area where we would feel confident filling a position It looks like that gap gets close to getting filled But I see a gnarly gap right here around 22 5 if 22 if we got down to 22 5, you know I'm probably I probably have a position built out and we're sitting right around that 3% range And if I'm wrong and the company goes out of business, okay, I'm out 3% of my total wealth Just like that, but I I've liked everything that I've seen in the company so far and You know, there is a lot of information that I have to go over but that just off a first glance is what I'd be looking for We have a longer term five wave structure, but short term you have a five wave structure That's coming into an end right here one two three four five if we get a higher low in here You know, I wouldn't be surprised if this ended up turning bullish But that is going to complete the video a little bit longer and I feel like I was kind of repeat myself a lot right in there You know, it might not get good You might not look at it as good content, but nonetheless That is going to complete the video and we'll see you on the next one