 Hello, everyone. Welcome to another capsule, International Relations capsule for the Shankar AAS Academy. Today, we'll discuss the controversial visit to Taiwan by the speaker of the US Congress, Nancy Pelosi. She made a very brief stopover in Taipei, the capital of Taiwan, during her visit to the East Asian region. She went to Korea, Japan, etc. It was a routine visit in those countries, but it turned out to be a rather historic visit to Taipei because it is after 25 years that a senior official of the US administration is visiting Taiwan because those who know the history of Taiwan is not surprised by this because there has been a huge issue regarding Taiwan's future between the United States and China. When the People's Republic of China came into existence, the Chiang Kai-shek government went to the island of Formosa and established a government there. And it continued all these years, even as the People's Republic of China took its place in the United Nations and elsewhere. Taiwan calls itself the Republic of Taiwan and several countries of the world have recognized it as an independent country. But most important countries consider that they have a one-China policy, which means there is only one China. Nobody says which is that one China. But there's only one China in this world and therefore Taiwan obviously does not have the kind of recognition it is seeking. It is about 23 million people and is one of the most prosperous countries in that region of the world, those 65 times less smaller than China. So Taiwan's position is that it's an independent nation and it should be recognized as such. And it applies for membership to the UN Security Council every year and is promptly vetoed by China. In the General Assembly, they may get some votes, but in the Security Council because of the veto, their application for membership cannot move forward. Meanwhile, the Chinese have taken the position that this is part of China in the sense that it was, though the previous government shifted there, it has no recognition and they want Taiwan to be reunited with China one day or the other, either peacefully or if necessary by war, that is the Chinese position. So this has continued and the status quo was not very unsatisfactory for most countries. Taiwan, even though it considers itself to be independent, has had good relations with Beijing till very recently, till a new government took over, the present government took over. They're a little more independent. They're a democratic party and they want to protect democracy and they feel that if Taiwan joins China, they'll lose their democracy. And so there is a conflict between democracy and autocracy. So in this situation, there have been talks, there have been rumours, stories about China wanting to do something in Taiwan, particularly after the Russia-Ukraine war because Russia signed an agreement with China for unlimited cooperation, which includes military cooperation, which means that China will support Russia on the Ukraine issue and Russia will support China on the Taiwan issue. And therefore, there has been a speculation that something may happen. Because in this context that Hansi Pelosi, the third ranking senior most official in the administration, made a short visit. The Biden administration says that they were not aware of such a visit, which of course nobody believes because I do not think that the speaker of the US Congress can just pick up a military flight and escort itself with the military aircraft and go and land in Taiwan. This is most unusual and impossible. But she went on her own as it were and she said that if she was going there because she wanted democracy against autocracy and also to make sure that the people of Taiwan would not suffer on account of any kind of invasion by China. And the Biden administration though it said that we did not know anything about it. And the President Biden also said that there was no way he could stop a US Congressperson to travel anywhere. So it's all a myth. But really what happened was that the elections are coming in November for the US Congress part of it. And there is a very serious doubt as to whether Democratic Party will win the majority. And if it doesn't win the majority back in the US Congress, Nancy Pelosi will cease to be the speaker. And therefore this is one theory that she wanted to go there for a last hurrah for the people of Taiwan before she herself gives up her speaker's gavel in November. But the more plausible theory is that the Biden administration and the Democratic Party also need some kind of a boost after the various failures they had. Afghanistan was a disaster. The bigger disaster was the pandemic and the Ukraine-Russia war. In all these though Russia has not won the war but there are signs that NATO is losing ground. And since NATO is not really fighting but only supporting Ukraine, there is some uncertainty about it. So in all these things, we are likely to be punished at the elections and Democratic Party might lose. And for fear of that, they decided to gain some leverage by supporting a cause which many people in the United States advocate that is Taiwan should remain independent. So that is a signal that they gave even though President Biden told President Xi Jinping in the message in a conversation that he was not intent that Nancy Pelosi should visit Taiwan at this stage but he could not have stopped anybody from visiting any congressman or one from visiting other countries. So there's a bit of lack of clarity there but nobody else has any doubt that this was deliberately done in order to gain some popularity for the Democratic Party. The first Nancy Pelosi is not for her sympathy for Taiwan and also her opposition to Beijing and also for democracy. So she said that she had come there to make sure that the Taiwanese people do not lose democracy for fear that there could be an invasion of Taiwan and that could be the end of democracy in that part of the world which is of great concern. In fact, the United States has now taken upon itself the role of protecting democracy around the world. They do not seem to have any other slogan to spread and democracy is the upon their use in order to gain support and sympathy from other countries. Of course, Speaker Pelosi met the various leaders and she made certain speeches and she was quite modest in her demand. She never asked for freedom for Taiwan. She basically mentioned that the people of Taiwan should not be punished for any disadvantage on account of this and she repeatedly said that America is committed to support Taiwan in its independence. Of course, the theory whether this is really a military contract or not is not very clear. There is certain ambiguity about the position of the United States. They have not said they will wage a war if necessary but they have said that they are committed to protect and safeguard the democracy in Taiwan. That lack of clarity has now become kind of a confusion because nobody knows exactly what the American position is but everyone knows that if China and Russia invade Taiwan in some form sooner or later, the United States will certainly be on the side of Taiwan and we will have to be ready to fight a war which will be a major war, it will be a global war, it will be a nuclear war. So, this is something that nobody wants. China reacted violently, flagrantly against this visit. Dakota simply said, oh, what does it matter if the speaker visits Taiwan? But they said that this is called Pelosi terrorism that is landing up in a military aircraft in Taiwan and making speeches which even at one point maybe by mistake referred to Taiwan as a country which was also read with some concern. So, what they did was they immediately reacted not against the United States as such but campaigning having a military drill all around Taiwan, completely surrounding Taiwan, aircraft, jet aircraft and warships surrounding Taiwan, getting close to the median line and generally threatening. And for the first time, jet fighters flew over Taipei in a threatening mode. So, they said that this will not allow and we will meet it militarily and to demonstrate that they showed all their power without of course firing on anything but simply flying over these areas making it difficult for people to have a normal life. And they made it very clear that this will not be accepted and that this should be, you know, she should apologize for it or the US should do that. None of the choice that was available. But the message was loud and clear that if anything is done militarily Taiwan does anything militarily there will be consequences. So, we still have this status quo except that there is a constant link there after four days China has slowed down its military drill etc. and the normalcy is slowly returning to the island. But there is no doubt that this was a demonstration on the part of United States that they are back in the like Biden went to the Middle East like that they are kind of showing that we are here and we are not gone anywhere and nobody can take us for granted in spite of the weakness demonstrated by United States. So in a way President Biden is getting a way to formulate a China policy. We are not really formulated a China policy was dealing more with Russia and so Russia China have come together to become more urgent for the United States to take a position and this visit helped President Biden though saying that Nancy Pelosi did not go under her instructions and even the US army had said this was not the right time for her to visit. And the meaning of that is that President Xi Jinping is about to take over an unprecedented third term of office as President which will make him President for life towards the end of this year. And so it's a crucial moment for him so he cannot appear to be in any way weakening while he is being enthroned as the President the third time which has not happened in the history of China before. So there is no surprise that China reacted very vigorously. But what is the result of all this is basically that both sides have ascended that position by no moment. But if you really look at the situation in Taiwan today the status quo is fairly satisfactory for everybody. For Taiwan they are enjoying freedom to do what they want like a country they are not restrained in their sovereignty of action and in some institutions they have even though they are not a member of one of the United Nations they represent Taiwan in the name of Taipei China it's a kind of compromise to enable Taiwan to get support from some UN agencies etc. So China has also shown some flexibility so they really do not have much to lose by what has happened but the fear is there. But the interesting part is the Taiwanese did not show any alarm about the Chinese actions. Strangely enough the tourists apparently went closer to the places where Chinese aircraft is flying instead of running away from Taiwan as people would have expected. So they were going to these spots where the Chinese aircraft were flying and the ships were sailing they went there as tourists to watch the show as it were. So there was no anxiety on the part of the they might have been anxious but they didn't show any anxiety and they thought it was some kind of a show which is worth seeing by the tourists. So obviously there is certain comfort level on the part of US and Taiwan that China might make all the cyber rattling as it were but they may not take any action unless the United States take any action and the United States is no more to do that they were simply assuring Taiwan. So when China has very good trade with Taiwan Taiwan is more prosperous which is the 11th most prosperous country in the world for semiconductors they are the best in the world all they have accomplished and what they nurse what they guard is their democracy and they are not speaking very loudly about not joining Taiwan. In fact there are some people some political parties inside Taiwan who believe in peaceful reunification with China. So it's a very complex matter and from American point of view also the existing situation is not so bad because they are also free to do whatever they want to do with Taiwan. Many countries including India have appointed trade commissioners who actually work like ambassadors and they are very welcome in Taiwan and they are buying and selling goods from Taiwan. So in a sense China, Taiwan and the United States have real no quarrel with the status quo but none of them will formally accept their status quo. So what is the solution? Well there is no solution to be found. One solution was suggested at some stage that Taiwan could become like Hong Kong becomes part of China but retains its democratic system one stage two systems model because this has been rejected by all sides and there is no active proposal for this but since Nancy Pelosi did not speak about independence for Taiwan and only about democracy so the possibility of Taiwan becoming a part of China for all practical purposes but remaining kind of independent in its economic activities which would be beneficial to the world and that kind of a suggestion is being made and some people suspect that this is being suggested in a sense by Nancy Pelosi's visit but there is no evidence of that and only some of us feel that that may be a better way to deal with the situation but China certainly wants it to be a fully part of China and even in the case of Hong Kong they have gone back on their promise that they will allow Hong Kong to function as a democracy increasingly China is tightening its hold on Hong Kong that we know particularly at the time of the pandemic this became very clear. So two things have happened as a visit of Nancy Pelosi if she had inadvertently fired a first shot of a war that's quite possible but this may eventually lead to a war and Nancy Pelosi may have lit the fire in Taiwan that is one theory and then people compare her to Helen of Troy you know when Helen of Troy was responsible for battles and there is this famous line in Marlowe's play called Dr. Foster's where Helen of Troy appears as an image and Foster exclaims, was it the phase that launched the 1000 ships and burned the topless towers of William, such a phase, our phase was so extraordinary that men will be willing to fight wars in her name and that was her reputation but Helen of Troy has been picturized in different forms, in different forms of literature. In some forms she is a kind of instrument, a willing instrument in the hands of kings and commanders on the other hand people believe that she may have just you know affected them so much that they are willing to so whether Nancy Pelosi is a Helen of Troy which has caused a war or is she an angel of peace who is likely to bring about a compromise on the question of Taiwan, this remains unshared and but none of them has anything much to lose in the maintaining the status quo. So if this fizzles away as a non-event it is good enough for everybody but at the same time it will be very difficult for them to withdraw from the post just then at least it will take some time and unless there is clear evidence of Russia winning the war or the Americans becoming in desperate and wanting to do something to gain the lost ground in the world it just remains to be seen. So on the whole created a big sensation, created a sense of danger but the way that the Chinese reacted very violently the Americans pretended as they did not know and the Taiwanese were quite relaxed because the leadership was saying that this is something against us but in actually they did not do much and they thought this was a very nice show to watch. So that is the situation so it remains to be seen whether she is a heroine, she is a kind of Helen of Troy or on whose account countries go to war or she went there to give this message that as long as democracy is maintained in Taiwan maybe some adjustments would be possible. So this is the story of what happened during Nancy Pelosi's visit the things have died down but the Chinese have repeatedly said that this is not going to be over they will continue their military drills both on the sea and in the air periodically even if nothing else happens. So the situation has not made anybody more secure it has not made China more secure it has not made the United States any more secure and nor has it made Taiwan's life easier. So why did that is a matter of question why was she allowed to do that it's a matter of discussion but these are the issues and there is no clear answer for that. Thank you very much. Well this is kindly that's a kind of countering the you know loss of face that NATO has suffered on account of the tactics that they used against Russia. They didn't think that Russians will put this extent I thought it would be a short war they could manage it by sanctions and by the army and by the supply of material to Ukraine and that has not happened and therefore they are at a loss as to how to sustain the momentum in Ukraine and Russia is more or less gaining ground there and so they may have deliberately done that whether it is writers or not is another question Taiwan has a history of we having been part of China but there are the vote in favor of the United Nations take United Nations place in the Security Council being taken over by public people's Republic of China rather than Taiwan which was there till the 70s that was around a unanimous vote there are still about 30 40 countries countries in the world who believe that Taiwan has an independent status that we cannot ignore and they are sustaining itself the China is sustaining its position because of the veto just as Russia is sustaining its position on Ukraine by using the veto so the weakness of the United Nations on account of the veto inter coming to a proper decision on these issues is still glaringly there so but to most of the countries like you are sympathetic to China for what the United States has done or what Nancy Pelosi has done they think it was foolish it was unnecessary they have nothing to gain by this but the Chinese have a little bit come become arrogant after this you may have read that the Chinese ambassador in Delhi talked about India not respecting one China policy gave some lecture to us and Ambassador Kapil Kamal Sibal what a very strong you know repartee strong article they're saying that will China follow in India one China in one India policy because they're talking about Xi Jinping as different from India they show Arunachal Pradesh as part of China what does that mean it's not that two China two India policy we have challenged that you know and how have they destroyed all the agreements between India and China since 1986 or even before from Panchi onwards everything is off so we have to draft new rules regulations and they are trying to alter the line of actual control so all these are being pointed out that China is also not being very fair if they want India to respect one China policy they should also respect one India policy not different parts of India being different so there is logic there also but there are no answers here and for any of these issues yes that's very clear the whole BRI is meant to isolate India and to cultivate these smaller countries but their true color is being shown these days because like for example what has happened in Sri Lanka is a big blow to China China was considered to be a very which I will say friendly country to Sri Lanka but now what are they doing they are just keeping quiet when Sri Lanka has got into this debt trap and nobody is helping them which is India which is helping them and you must have seen the recent report that they wanted to send their warship to Abandota in the guys of you know replenishing it and you know stalking it etc and India had to request Sri Lanka not to allow this and the Sri Lanka has requested them to postpone the visit and China is making a lot of noise that China has every right to have friendly relations with neighbouring countries and India has no role in it so there is that tension certainly there is and Taiwan is not in that category because in the case of Taiwan they are simply saying that this is our country they are not giving any excuses or giving them money so that's a more fundamental issue but China's intentions are expansionist certainly in South Asia and after the Sri Lankan kind of fallout they have to readjust their policies they probably have to offer more manicure and assistance to Sri Lanka and not expect India to repair the damage caused by the Chinese debt trap that's obvious so maybe others will learn their lessons and people will try to turn towards India rather than to China for assistance etc but China's assistance was much more liberal much more generous than whatever we could afford but at the time of trouble we have really gone out of the way to you know give them something like what billion dollars in order to recover and China has promised one billion but they haven't paid for them now so there is a duplicity of China in this regard no I think even at the best of times Soviet Union had not supported India vis-à-vis China you may remember in 1906-02 their reaction was that one is a brother and the other is a friend and you know who the brother is and who the friend is so and even in 2020 when Ladakh happened the Russians arranged some kind of a meeting between our foreign minister and the Chinese foreign minister and they appeared to be trying to help out but with the Afghanistan issue they have gone back on all that and now they have left India to deal with China itself that is now I think from the Russian side but on the cooperation side with Russia and economic cooperation the father has been some strengthening in this region in this period because we have not condemned Russia we have continued our you know economic programs with Russia in Vladivostok we have a program and all that and that's going smoothly we have got the S-400 missiles and so the Russians are keeping up the promises in most of these cases though they are joining with China in a treaty agreement which is limitless and that is a major threat to India so if militarily they are pressed to China they cannot you cannot expect Russia to stand by us or support us but we have taken a principal position that all wars are harmful nobody will win these wars and therefore what is needed in Ukraine is a ceasefire in negotiations and that's a helpful position for Russia though they are not willing to have any ceasefire or negotiations and Ukraine is not too happy with that and the western countries are also not happy Americans feel that now that India is a member of the park it should be more supportive of the United States but we don't see that so we are successful in balancing it at least for the time being and there are serious mistakes have occurred we even criticized there was a massacre in Butch book and there was also some bombing of prisoners in these cases we are protested very strongly against what Russia may have done so we are keeping a balance and we are also not supporting the Europeans in everything on oil for example we are dealing with Russia we are buying oil from them and the Europeans are buying but they are asking us not to buy so we expose the revocacy saying that you are buying more oil than what are you complaining about and also our arrangement with Russia for some rupee payment also they have been questioned but all this we are not conceding at all and so I think we have a fairly strong position as of now well I don't know whether we have a backup plan but we are aware of what is happening and we are doing everything possible to make these countries feel comfortable with India and not tempted to you know depend on China more and the recent Svilekhaniksha we may be helpful others may not go the same way under the Shesh distance itself a little bit and other countries may also some of them may leave the Belt and Road Initiative because they realize that the terms of the Belt and Road Initiative are not very helpful for their self-reliance so for a mix of what shall we say a firmness on the part of our side and also of befriending these smaller countries I passed as dividends like you know that Maldives president was in India even though there has been a movement to hit India, India fits in Maldives but he came to India and pledged his support to India and said that India would be at first priority so both things are being seen so we are meeting the whole situation as best as we can a small number of countries I was in the South Pacific these small countries in South Pacific and wherever I went I could not call on the Chinese ambassador because the Chinese ambassador was the Taiwanese because Taiwan was giving a lot of assistance to these small island states and so they had not recognized China and they had recognized Taiwan but that I believe that was about 15 years ago when I left and after that many of these countries have come back to the mainland China and said Taiwan out and in fact mainland China signed a huge contract huge agreement with Solomon Islands a small tiny state in South Pacific so there are some countries with diplomatic relations and increasingly they are also going towards China because China is compensating them for whatever they are losing in terms of revenue because as we are concerned we have trade relations and we have a trade commissioner in Taipei my own brother my younger brother was the trade commissioner in Taipei till a few years ago and he was called by them always as the ambassador of India though he could not call himself a master of India he called himself trade commissioner but in real virtual reality Taiwan is considered the trade commissioners and ambassadors but that is their own choice we don't do much about it and we don't acknowledge it so we follow a one China policy which is that you know there is only one China and that we don't say the meaning of that is it is only people's republic of China and Taiwan is an issue which has to be resolved separately I know but as I said earlier they did not stand by us in the case of China even before so it is not realistic to expect that so any war we have to fight it ourselves but who nobody will come and fight our so what we have to do is to make sure that we are strong enough we are prepared enough and we are strong friends that's all that we can do the rest is our our responsibility to fight the war with what we have we have nuclear weapons so it is a deterrent and nobody will dare you know launch a war against India we have a known first use but second use is permissible and therefore nobody is going to attack us with nuclear weapons so there are certain guarantees this way and then having joined the quad our relationship with the US has also been strengthened and that is why US keeps saying you're a quad brother how can you go and support Russia which implies that we have not supported Russia we only supported peace we only supported dialogue we only supported you know peaceful resolution disputes and that is true but Americans are upset with us and they have made no secret of it and President Biden has spoken but they have maintained a continuous flow of exchange with us as you know our external affairs minister is very active in answering questions of every any country anyone who wants to ask him questions when he has followed a very transparent policy and also seeking independence of strategic autonomy which strongly recommends that they let us decide things on our own and we are not doing so that so I don't think we need to be very anxious well a mix of all it is definitely Americans are fixing their muscles showing that they can they will prevent any attack on Taiwan but there is no such certainty that Taiwan will be the next Ukraine because it will not be Ukraine will be like a will be like child's play compared to a Taiwan war because China is the second largest nuclear power when Russia is the third largest and second and third ganging against the first there will be a quiet disaster and so nobody will do that hopefully and so this is I don't know whether you want to call it provocation or testing of waters what will the Chinese do if we do ABCD and that seems to be the motivation so the whatever statements they were making China reacted but didn't matter but then there's a second stage where they send a congresswoman to make some statements there and the reaction was quite violent but it has died out no war has taken place and so one test is over we may test again but that's a natural thing in national security concerns in in areas like this where there is some uncertainty well the UN has failed in this you know we have been saying this for a few days particularly after the pandemic but UN has become totally irrelevant in this context because even the pandemic they could not do anything and what can they do to prevent a war among the among three permanent members there is no UN in place without the permanent members so they have no role at all of course UN is the conscience of humanity is actually done as a right to appeal for peace etc which it does from time to time but beyond that what can the UN do if anybody puts up a resolution of security council even for peace will be vetoed by Russia or somebody will veto it so UN is totally ineffective but there are other fora like the G20 or G7 or SEO and where there are multiple partnerships India has with different shades of opinion those are the organizations which seem to be working overtime to prevent a catastrophe because there is no veto in these institutions these organizations so these have been meeting you know there are organizations of Russia China India and the US are present but though they don't seem to meet each other SEO for example you know US is not that what everybody else is there but our external office minister did not meet either the Chinese Foreign Minister or the Pakistani Foreign Minister so we are doing our best but there is no clear way certainly that UN has no no role well quite obviously the answer is obvious in your question if China is reducing export of weapons and India finds Chinese weapons less attractive are the choice only two Israel and Taiwan sorry Israel and US and Israeli and US is one and the same thing they are the same weapons that it is manufactured in USA or Israel and our Chinese imports of weapons has come down from 80 to 70% to much less more like 50% but when you buy a 400 missiles that you go up again component of Russian weapons but it is declining which is not very good because though there are better equipment better weapons they are not very recently priced and they don't also often give technology because of making India program we are hoping that the Americans will come and jointly explore building of these weapons in India and sell it to other countries and that has not worked very well and so we continue to import from the US and import is testing your friendship by counting the number of weapons you buy in Saudi Arabia by US weapons but the insular United States forgives them for the murder of Khashoggi that is the policy of at least Trump so we will increasingly buy weapons more weapons from we will make it ourselves and also buy from US and Israel and it is very hypothetical and unlikely because Pakistan is not going to depend on India more because our hatred towards each other is visceral so under no circumstances will they give up their friendship with China and depend on it that's impossible but of course if you look at history you have so many instances of people you know changing alliances etc it's not impossible I cannot say it will never happen but if you look at this relationship between China and Pakistan it's not a fair weather relationship it is an all weather relationship right from the old days what has a you know communist country to do with an Islamic nation there's nothing in common between them the only common thing between them was the hatred of India so we have lived with it but your scenario is not likely in the near future nor will China offer any kind of option for Pakistan to move away in fact Pakistan has moved away from the United States in a big way and even in the Middle East they do not have a great hold but China is there only a natural supporter and why should they give up given the nuclear weapons they've given them all the support that is the China Pakistan corridor and everything is hankidori with them and therefore I do not see those in the distant future we can argue many of these war games but as of now logically and historically scientifically we cannot think of a situation most countries of the world on China policy but many of them do not even I don't have a list in front of them but most more countries in the world major countries in the world follow one China policy it's only some smaller countries here and there which recognize Taiwan as the as the genuine representative of the people of China this is these are big questions for which there is no answer at the moment NATO's wish US wish is to weaken Russia that's it any other things other things they will wait so that in the weakening of the Russia process what can the other countries do so they will go ahead strongly if resistance like today we heard that the United States has multiplied I don't again see the figure multiplied support for Ukraine in a big way the Congress seems to have supported it so that will grow and then the only aim is to make Russia weak and that is our objective strengthen NATO and we can and they may even sacrifice Ukraine in that sense because they may may not make that a condition for this resolution but you cannot see what others can do in this particular context to save Ukraine or what is happening in NATO because Middle East is not to be linked with this because Middle East US has slightly withdrawn and it is these Russians who are playing a role in Syria and other places I don't see much comparison between them I don't normally speak about the West atrocities it doesn't suit them to speak about them but President Biden's visit to the Middle East was not very successful so there it be and others did not do what he has them to do that is to increase production of oil so that the prices can be stabilized and also keep the trade routes open so that the inflation rates in the United States can be controlled but on this neither of this the Middle Eastern countries showed any interest they said they had to deal with Iran they had to deal with Russia they had to deal with China and they'll deal with the United States also so the primacy of the United States in the Middle East has disappeared as a result of the oil boom inside the United States in fact they don't read and need Middle Eastern oil anymore and therefore when they are in the market they're selling oil themselves so this oil is thicker than water theory that's not what all the best thank you very much see you next week