 Thank you, chair. I think the chair wanted me to introduce myself initially because my last name is too complicated to pronounce It's okay. I give that a lot My name is Johannes Gabrasatic. I'm a research fellow for a research project. That's been conducted by UNU wider and Massachusetts Institute of Technology. My background is civil engineering majoring in water resources engineering. I did my PhD at Colorado University in water resource management My research topic is in climate change water resources modeling and in recent years The renewable resource and integration of different renewable resources today. I'm going to be talking about one of the research that we've conducted a couple of years ago about integration of hydropower and an intermittent renewable energy resource wind and solar to to Provide a regional integration of energy production Okay, so I think everybody knows renewable energy resources such as wind hydropower and solar are playing major role in Providing affordable locals and reliable energy resources. They've also been very effective in reducing the utilization of fossil fuels such as coal By by providing environmentally friendly and clean energy source for this reason they've been they've been playing a central role in in combating climate change for this reason many countries are actively engaged in Increasing the role of these renewable resources particularly wind and solar into into the energy system on on the right chart here shows the growth of wind capacity From nineteen ninety six to two thousand and forty you can see that there is an exponential growth in the capacity starting from 61 to end of two thousand and forty reaching about three hundred seventy gigawatt hour a gigawatt. Sorry Which has been installed For about over 90 countries at the moment and this number is expected to grow to 2000 gigawatt by 2040 so this exponential growth is going to continue similarly for solar by end of 2013 some reports of Indicated a number 142 gigawatt hour, which is also going to grow to 5600 gigawatt by 2050 So if you look at the capacity of these renewable resources in South Africa This map here shows the solar potential globally You can see South Africa is one of the hotspot areas along with Mexico and Brazil and has been labeled as one of the most exciting Place for further development of solar also for wind There's a enormous potential for onshore and offshore development and in South Africa So for this reason the government of South Africa is planning to aggressively engage in developing these resources to increase the penetration of their share of Contribution into the the energy system. So this report the integrated resource plan study initiated by the Department of Energy 2011 10 and 11 States about 20 past 21 percent of penetration can be achieved Through the involvement of wind and solar by 2013 and these are other figures from other studies like the WWF vision by 2013 comes up with 37 percent of penetration by 2040 and even a more optimistic And aggressive green scenarios by SCOM by 1040 about 41 percent of penetration can be achieved Looking at this just the distribution of The energy from the IRP Report we can see that coal will still be the major contributor to the energy system amounting to 46 percent however the wind and Solar contribution will still amount to a significant portion During this time. So these these figures personal I personally believe that these figures Might be a bit ambitious for the reason that I will I will discuss in the following slides So While this renewable resource are highly attractive because they present us with many socio-economic and environmental benefits There is a challenge when we come to implementation So one of the major challenge particularly for wind and solar is the fact that they are highly intermittent. This is a sample Wind generating capacity for a day. You can see that it's fluctuation. It's it's fluctuating To from zero to the maximum capacity within within a matter of hours or even minutes sometimes So it's really it's really unpredictable. It's just fluctuates and highly intermittent This is a power duration curve to see Sort of to indeed to indicate the reliability. So even though the capacity is really high You can see that at higher reliability. It's it can go to a lower value So this is a plot between capacity and percentage of time that this resource is available so we can get at 60 percent of the person at the time we can only rely at 5000 megawatt hour and if we go to higher reliability Which is mostly what we need for the energy system like 90 percent. It almost goes down to 1000 megawatt hour. So even though the maximum capacity is really high It's it's a huge challenge. This intermittency brings a huge challenge in terms of Implementation the other challenge is the fact that it's none dispatchable which means We have very little or no control on how to how we are going to generate the energy For example, if we look at hydropower, we can shut off the reservoirs and store energy as a form of store energy as a form of water When we don't need that when the demand is low or when we don't need the energy But we can't do that for wind. It's pretty much generate while the wind is blowing But if the wind is not there, we're out of luck So the mostly an effective way to make this Intermittent resource more usable is by using a complimentary energy resource or other Nundispatchable in energy source such as hydropower How it works is the hydropower Downs conserve as you may call it a battery like to save energy while the wind is blowing or while the wind The wind energy is available And whenever the windage is not available We can use the hydropower to generate to fill that gap between those those low times of wind so this has been This has been practiced in many countries and has been Proved to be effective. So while this is some of the challenge We can see a huge opportunity to in the southern Africa region, which is there is a regional hydropower and storage facilities In Zambia river basin, for example, which could serve us as a battery and this huge capacity of wind Is also an opportunity And there's also a hydropower capacity in Zambia basin. So a perfect coordination could make this This intermittent resource more usable into into the system So this was the whole idea of the restore this researcher give me trying to see if this regional coordination of wind hydro hydropower can give rise to a better reliability of this intermittent resource so the question this were the The four questions that we were trying to address in the research The first one obviously is can a regional coordinated operation of this wind and hydro or solar and hydro result in a better penetration of Or a better utilization of this wind resource in the system Assuming no constraint in the system or a perfect coordination in terms of transmission In terms of transmission and communication between the different facilities How should we operate this reservoir so that to get the maximum benefit out of this wind intermittent resource and What will this implication be on the demand supply sites from both down basic the country sharing the Zambia river basin and in South Africa and also finally what we try to pinpoint the critical constraint in the system Like for example, if adding more storage in the system could give rise to better utilization of wind Or if adding more flexibility to the existing facilities for example for core power plants could give rise to higher penetration or Pumped storage in which we pump the water back to the reservoirs could give rise so we try to look at this this parameters also in the In the study so going to the main elements So the input data that we used is a perfect soap foresight wind generation, which means we Beforehand we have the generating pattern of wind. So this was taken from a research conducted by Humel I think in 2010 In early time step. We also made use of the 2010 energy actual energy demand from from Escom we got that from Escom So those were our input data's that we had to utilize a water resources model to try and Simulate how the reservoirs are storing water and releasing water and how the head of our sergeant I think energy So for that we implemented a reservoir What a resources system model that runs on hourly time step, which is given it by policy and then policy constraint by policy constraint? I'm talking about like environmental constraints for example How how we can fluctuate or how how we how we can release downstream so that It is within the the ecological limit that was set by the policy the non-policy constraints Like reservoir storage or what the resource availability as guided by the hydrology of the system This is a priority based water allocation model Which also takes other demands like environmental flow requirement and irrigation water requirement into a consideration. So this Full what a resource model does the water allocation to the to the different demand in the system and also a generate hydro power The second model that we implemented was a power interconnection model These are single or simple power balance model that looks at Available power and the demand and tries to match those two The force tool that we implemented was a global optimization model that tries to That tries to wrap this water resource and power interconnection model and trying to come up with an optimum Operating policy for each reservoirs in in in Zambezi To come up with an optimum allocation policies partially which means optimum between the different reservoirs and the different power supplies and also Optimum allocation across over all the time step by Considering the different water ability in the system the different seasonal variability in the system particularly in water resource availability So this is a schematic of what the Components that I just I just talked about so this is the I'm not going to go into detail But this is the water resources model that the different dams generating hydro power system hydro power their respective hydro power demand in Zambezi and this is these are the different Energy sources in in in South Africa. So this is the interconnection model in which they generated far power from from Zambezi or the hydro power from the basic will be pulled in together with the wind and We will have a combined wind hydro Generation here that will be distributed back to the Zambezi demand and to South Africa demand. So We are looking at Something like this. We're expecting something like this. So the blue line is the hydro power generation and the way the The green line is the wind The exogenous wind input. So the wind is going to fluctuate But we are expecting the hydro powers to kick in and start generating whenever the wind energy goes down So overall keeping the the the total generation stable All right, so these are the results that we obtained This chart here is the wind Okay The wind generation Minus the the hydro power demand that's taken out from Zambezi Initially, it will be fluctuating the that's the red chart is the the fluctuation intermittent data That this is the output from the model which is more rectified more stable And highly reliable energy Form of energy So if you remember the original power duration curve that I displayed which is this dotted line Now when we plot another duration curve to overlay to look at what the impact is going to be We can see that we can achieve higher reliability higher Park capacity at had higher reliability We are getting an improvements Like 4,500 megawatt power which is equivalent to Inga 3 hydro power dam Which is which is a huge benefit Also, this is for South Africa for Zambezi There's also initially this was not the target bit with this by-product plus that was obtained That it's also making the system of Zambezi the system of hydro parts in Zambezi more reliable initially in the original Configuration there were slightly unmet demand of Hydro power in in Zambezi however with this configuration We are able to completely meet the demand in in in Zambezi, which is a plus plus So looking at the implication of demand supply in South Africa this charts compare the reference case scenario in which Wind the wind power will still be part of the system, but the load following in the fluctuation is going to be carried out by the coal power plants and coal power plants are not that flexible and this is the new configuration or This is the new operation which the wind hydro operation giving rise to a better penetration of the system So that's why I said initially the 21% of penetration that has been said by Government might be too optimistic unless There is some kind of regional coordination in which at least we could go we could come close to 20% of generation other qualitative results that we that we observed is that Since some of the load following is going to be done by the hydro power plants We are operating we will be operating our coal power plants Relatively more in in more steady manner So this means two things one is efficient utilization of resource which Because when we make the part the coal power plants to fluctuate Rapidly we are consuming more resource and that it's less efficient So the more stable they are the more efficient the resource utilization is going to be and also a better life of the facility Which means the more stable we are operating them the better in logistic life the coal power plants will have So to wrap up this or some of the summer is that that we obtained the additional at 90 percent reliable We are able to find 4500 mega close to 4500 megawatt hour, which is a huge improvement over the 1000 megawatt hour at 90 percent of reliability Based on this new configuration of coordinated regional operation we could achieve around 18.7 percent of penetration and it's also making the existing system in in In some busy more more reliable So we are looking at a win-win situation at both end and also less cycling requirement, which is getting for the coal power plants So these are my two concluding remarks. So Regional cooperation is Not only it's it's it's very important to achieve also national goals in addition to Achieving regional win-win situations in which both parties can benefit Therefore this coordinated operation should come into a picture both at planning stages as well as during implementation since now countries are Engaged more in into developing these renewable resources With that I come to end of my presentation look forward to your questions. Thank you