 Good morning, everyone. I'm Allison at Roberts with the California Energy Commission's media office And we are here today to release a major assessment of climate change in California Before we get going a few rules of the road and some thank yous We want to thank especially Cal EMA for hosting this event Among those who deserve special thanks are Tina Walker and Justin Short for making everything in this room work properly And I want to especially thank Mark Gillard Ducci for his gracious The secretary of Cal EMA for his generous Welcoming of us. The news conference is being webcast and the video will be available on the Cal EMA site It may take a couple of hours to archive after the press conference concludes When our speakers have finished you will have an opportunity for one-on-ones here in this room And thank you and now with no more delay. We shall commence. Thank you Good morning. I'm John Laird the secretary of the natural resources agency. It's my pleasure to welcome you here today As was just mentioned We are releasing a new assessment of climate change today that's embodied in 34 different vulnerability Assessments the significant thing about today's release is that while there's been much science on climate change This ties that science to the vulnerabilities across California and how we have to start thinking about how to adapt for example We have done science before these reports on sea level rise Almost all science Pertaining to California says that at the end of the century we will have sea level rise between five and six feet For the first time this says here are some things that we need to start to be thinking about To adapt to that sea level rise whether it's airports in the San Francisco Bay area the entire Delta ecosystem Gravity feed Systems and sewer and water that are tied to the current sea level and not to the future sea level All these things are things we have to think about in moving forward additionally There are ones that Some of the speakers will address coming forward But when you look at fires What the change in climate will do to fires how it ties to our electric transmission system There's whole host of issues that relate to that and those are the kinds of vulnerabilities that now we're talking about in terms of the science because just as With greenhouse gas emissions there was a big push to have individuals in California and across the country Understand how their actions deal with it and what they can do to respond to the actions We are looking at Climate change and what we have to do to adapt and the individual decisions that people can make to adapt This is very significant also because it comes on the heels of the stories in the last two days of scientist Richard Mueller Changing his position no longer being a climate change skeptic But agreeing with the bulk of science from every academy of science across the world that climate change is A reality it is actually happening So that is a significant thing today is that we're talking about how to adapt How to tie vulnerabilities to climate change and how to get Californians at every level of government and individuals to think about this and start to make their actions match What we have to do in a change in climate in California We also have with us today, and I want to acknowledge Daniel KN from the Scripps Institute who is a researcher that contributed much to this report And who traveled from San Diego to join us today, and now it's my pleasure to introduce Ken Alex who's a senior policy advisor to Governor Brown and also director of the office of planning and research Thank You Secretary Laird. Good morning everybody You know we accept that Cigarette smoking causes cancer, and we accept that HIV causes AIDS and as a country and and as a state We make decisions policy decisions based on those scientific determinations We are not there. We are not in the same place with climate change But California is working to change that and here in California We do make policy decisions based on the science Governor Brown actually reads the science And he takes it very seriously. I know at a very deeply personal level He wants to do something about climate change and he wants to see California take a leadership role This set of reports that we should note is funded by the Energy Commission Does not paint a rosy picture Climate change is here now in California We need to adapt and we need to understand what that adaptation requires and what the vulnerabilities of Particular communities are We understand now that we have great threats fire that we've heard about sea level rise drought flooding These are a series of plagues, but we're not helpless We are now able to look very much in detail at the kinds of things that we can and should be doing in the state of California We're going to be issuing Climate adaptation planning guide later this year to help local communities To adapt and to work with the science In addition, we're working with a series of regional entities in the in the large metropolitan areas around the state And with local communities and you'll hear a little bit more about that today as well and Calima is one of the entities That's doing very significant work in this area In California as most of you know, we're moving forward on a series of issues dealing with improving energy efficiency water efficiency in Increasing the amount of renewable energy moving to a low carbon fuel transportation system these are Part of the response to climate change, but they're not it because we have already Done enough as humans to change the climate and we have to deal with the impacts that that are coming so We take hard in California what we learn from science and On behalf of Governor Brown, I want to thank the energy Commission I want to thank the peer program which is a very under reported entity in the state of California that does incredible science and Thank everybody involved with this set of reports. So with that, let me introduce Bob Weisenmiller Who's the chair of the energy Commission? Thank you Thank you I'm not not only the chair of the energy Commission, but I was appointed to the scientist engineer position at the Commission and Certainly, I'm very proud of the scientists that we have in the peer program For this assessment. They're put together We scientists know that climate change is and will be significantly affecting the stage energy supply and demand system the research in these assessments further understanding of these impacts for Example researchers found that the electricity system is much more vulnerable than we had thought One of our responsibilities is to make sure we have a reliable power system So we will use this study to determine how to reduce these vulnerabilities in our power system One example is that we indeed are looking at higher temperatures temperatures have risen Certainly in the last hundred years looking over the next hundred years. They're going to be increasing at a significant rate One of the impacts of higher temperatures in a more severe summers will be greater demands for electricity in the summer and This report these reports indicate we could see up to an additional gigawatt power of our demand in peak periods in 10 years certainly going out To the end of the century we're talking about much greater numbers another up to 17 gigawatt hours And one of the things we've done this year is we actually when we Adopted a forecast for what the state's power needs are We incorporated the impacts of climate change in that forecast and that was the first time a public agency has Recognized that fact again This is based upon the science and we need to incorporate that in our planning to make sure we have a reliable power system Certainly one of the other impacts is hydropower, you know historically We've been able to store hydropower as snow in the Sierras looking at climate change unfortunately, what we're seeing is that Basically, we're having that snow melting earlier. We're having runoff earlier It's shifting that hydropower production out of our summer peaks into more of the spring time so again that will Aggravate our summer peak load issues having less of that valuable hydropower in the Sierras We also are seeing it in the transmission lines Again as you go to higher temperatures and look at a whole Electric grid system that will result in greater losses of power and those greater losses What we're seeing what the scientists are estimating is that by the end of the century that could be an additional Seven to eight percent losses in those peak periods So again that will aggravate and providing reliable power in those summer periods And we have to find ways to ameliorate those effects But along with the challenges we're seeing there are also opportunities and One we're trying to build that into our thinking for instance The scientists found that some of our key transmission corridors coming down from the Pacific Northwest and Moving into Los Angeles Los Angeles metropolitan area are going to be more vulnerable to increase fires and One of the ways we can try to address that is by having more locally generated electricity instead of bringing Power in on the high voltage lines from out of state or some of our remote areas we can also address that through micro grids and micro grids are essentially Many utilities that combines supplies and to meet demand based upon smart electronics And we're putting that in areas where we need high reliability of power places like University campuses military bases, you know data centers So basically with that modern technology we can ameliorate some of those impacts The other thing we're finding frankly is that we need to Really continue both adaptation and the mitigation route that we're doing We have a various serious effort in California to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through energy efficiency Renewable resources and at this point. We're also looking at electrifying the transportation system The governor has a recent mandate for zero electric vehicles again We are transforming that whole system and as we make those transformations It's an opportunity to also look at how to adjust the designs For example, a lot of our electric utility system was built in the post-Korean war period or in the lbj era And so that's at a period now where it has to be replaced And so we will be replacing that with smart technology so they can better adapt to the situation that we're Confronting with climate change Certainly as we move forward This science will again really underpin some of our activities and we'll try to deal with vulnerabilities another example Is we have this historic study on the Bay Area and one of the things that tells us is What the impacts are of flooding the locations in the extent and that will allow us to look at some of our energy Infrastructure things like power plants things like transmission lines gas lines and start to try to adapt those So that we can deal with those consequences over time I would also like to note along with these historic studies I would like to call out the city of Los Angeles has also done its own study recently under the mayor's direction To really look at what the impacts will be at a local level down there of climate change and Starting to build that into their planning and again I think the challenges are enormous But certainly this state has the capability to rise to those challenges and with these types of studies We're going to be prepared and again certainly we will use these in the energy commission planning to Drive our planning so we can maintain a reliable grid, but also to really use this as a way of planning our research So with that I'd like to introduce Chief Ken Pilot, director of the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection Thank you. Good morning. Thank you firefighters certainly know The impacts of climate change and they know what it's like to fight these fires on the ground And they must have the right tools to prevail and be successful to protect California and its resources And the citizens that we serve The studies that we've talked about today are that providing the tools we need to further these plans to prepare California and move us into the future the risk that climate change brings More frequent and more intense wildfires Longer fire seasons and a decline in the health our state's coniferous forests We really need the public to understand that these are not changes. We're talking about in the future These changes are occurring now. We're experiencing them now some of the things that we're already seeing Disease and pest infestations in our forests that make them more susceptible to damage from insects and drought We're seeing longer fire seasons on average two months longer in many areas of the state than what we've seen In previous years and in previous decades We're seeing fires in some areas that are more intense And they some areas particularly in Southern California We're seeing fire seasons that can last year-round even in what we would consider to be the wet months of January and February most disconcerting I think for us in the fire service community is the Rapid increase in the number of large damaging fires that have occurred in recent years of the 20 largest fires that have occurred in California the most damaging fires 11 of those have occurred since 2002 Up to that point we were seeing on average maybe one damaging large damaging fire once every decade But to have over 11 occur since 2002 truly tells us that something is changing and we know that The evidence tells us that we need to have a obviously a strong robust emergency response system in the state and working through under Mark Geller-Ducci's leadership in our mutual aid system and the state's emergency response plan And all of the local government state and federal resources that are available We need to continue to maintain and support that robust system But emergency response isn't the only aspect to deal with this changing environment We also need to get ahead of the disasters ahead of the fires before they occur public education is key We have got to be out educating Our citizens in california of the impacts of climate change and what it's doing For the individual residents the things that they need to do to prepare all the things We say every year about fire season defensible space preparing your home evacuation plans All of those things are part of this process in addition to public education We need to be focusing and double our efforts in treating the vegetation and the fuels in california that are contributing to These large and damaging fires california has a strategic fire plan that clearly spells out the steps that we need to take And I really want to thank the energy commission and their leadership in working with the governor's office the administration Cal fire and others to work on incentives and alternatives to deal with fuels biomass and other things that help us Create defensible space fuel breaks and treat vegetation as we work through these challenging times It's evident to us changes occurring and studies like those that are being released today are key In helping us move Forward to to prepare california With that I am honored to introduce one of the researchers who contributed to all of this vital work Suzanne mosier scientist from santa cruz associate with stanford Has dedicated many many years to furthering this information in these studies and with that Thank you for that introduction chief limpin lot and good morning ladies and gentlemen here in the room and across california It's my great honor To speak to you this morning on behalf of the more than 120 scientists who have contributed to california's third climate assessment Some 26 research teams from the state's finest research institutions have contributed to more than 30 studies That we have tried to summarize as best as we could in this little brochure that you have received that is on the web Our changing climate 2012 And it basically spells out what our new understanding is of what climate change might mean to california I was told I have about five minutes to speak So i'm not going to pick just a few findings from that It's already difficult to summarize that great work But what I want to do instead is to highlight the key innovations of what do we know now From this assessment compared to the other two assessments we've done since 2006 In the most important thing that I would say and you've heard this already Through the previous speakers is that this is science that responds to what decision makers are asking for This is not just you know sitting in the lab and trying to figure out What would be interesting to us as scientists to understand we're trying to inform the public We're trying to inform decision makers with Valuable information that they can use in their decision making and planning So let me highlight those three key innovations First managers and planners said they want to know How likely certain climate changes are so for the first time in this assessment We made substantial progress in moving toward the likelihood of climate change projections of sea level rise projections What is the probability of certain? Levels of climate change to occur So in other words if we assume a particular scenario of greenhouse gas emissions going forward Then how likely is it a coastal manager? For example might ask that a certain amount of sea level rise will occur at a certain time in the future Or how likely is it a farmer might ask that we still see freezing temperatures at some point in the future How likely is it a public health department might ask that is certain that we will get extreme temperatures Or a particularly long heat wave in the future So the third assessment for the first time produced this kind of probabilistic likelihood information about climate change Now it's important to Reiterate that these likelihoods depend on the societal choices that we make today The future might be worse or better depend depending on the choices that we make We may cut cut back the greenhouse gas emissions more than we currently plan or less And that will change those probabilities But based on the best information we have the best models we have and Assumptions about those future emissions that is what we can say now And it's easy to sum up what that all adds up to which is that the more heat trapping gases We emit now and in the years to come the more likely is it that we will see very unpleasant and in some cases outright dangerous conditions for california Let me turn to the second Innovation in this study and it's embedded in the name that the third assessment is also known by which is the vulnerability and adaptation study in 2009 the when the california natural resources agency released its first statewide adaptation strategy You may recall that it asked for an um a comprehensive vulnerability and adaptation study for the state And that is what we did So here again, we're responding to what decision makers are asking for We did not just as in the previous assessment focus on potential climate change impacts Not just on the climate and how that might possibly impact natural systems like agriculture or ecosystems Or human health or you know any of our communities what we did instead is we looked at Vulnerability and I want to explain that because it's an important distinction between just looking at potentially what might happen vulnerability means What exactly is exposed on the ground to those climate changes that we're projecting and if that climate change unfolds How severe might the impacts be how sensitive are we to those impacts and then thirdly What can we do to cope and to adapt to those changes? And if you take exposure sensitivity and coping capacity adaptive capacity together You get a true sense of the vulnerability on the ground. So that's an important distinction to the previous assessments So not only do we have a more realistic picture of what may happen by understanding sort of the true Causes of vulnerability We can offer a lot more information to managers as to where they can intervene What they can do to prepare and how to reduce that Vulnerability and increase resilience In short while the efforts to reduce emissions have to continue to avoid the worst of climate change Managers can do a lot on the ground already now starting this moment To reduce their vulnerability so that those impacts will not be as severe And that leads me then to the third innovation, which is all about adaptation What you find quite apparent in our changing climate 2012 Compared to previous summaries is that there is a very big shift in tone Previously we always were able to say well, we will have to figure out what to do to adapt This time we actually looked at that we actually started to do science about adaptation What can we do? What are communities already doing? How much would that cost? If they have problems doing that right now hurdles that they might have to get over What can we do to help them overcome those barriers so they can prepare for the future The third assessment in this way offers very important new insights into what managers and policy makers can do to prepare for And reduce the risk from climate change And because climate change is already as we heard before unfolding as we speak in the state right now These efforts and adaptation are just as urgent and important as mitigation Let me close my brief remarks here by saying thank you to the state of california for continuing to support scientific research into climate change It is exciting to a scientist quite frankly To do cutting-edge work, but at the same time also be useful to people who need this information And it's my personal belief working with local state and federal agency folks that people who need to figure out What what to do to make sure that california continues to be a safe and prosperous place to be They're actually grateful that they have a reliable source ongoing source of scientific information Then just make blind guesses and and speculations about a future that is uncertain for sure But that is very rapidly unfolding in front of us. So thank you very much And with that we conclude our news conference The participants have graciously agreed to be available for someone on ones And I think you all know how to go about that. Thank you