 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccidentTrade.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing okay. Again, welcome all our friends from different various social media platforms from Facebook and YouTube and Stocktwits. Obviously a lot of our following comes from Twitter. Hope everybody's having a great weekend. Hope everybody is enjoying life. So let's talk about the markets, right? Before we go into really solid week of trade, okay? One of the more aggressive weeks of trading. We'll talk about that in a few minutes. But I've always maintained, especially for new traders, again, we try to do these videos, these weekend updates geared to the trader. Sometimes it'll be geared towards the intermediate trader, the experienced trader, but I want to focus on the novice trader here. I've always maintained this. The worst thing you can do as a novice trader, number one, you really don't have a big bank to play around with. You really don't have any tangible process that's giving you any consistency. The worst thing you can do, and I've said this for years, is wake up in the morning and open up your platform and stare at the pre-market high list. That's the absolute worst thing. Because you are putting yourself in a position that you are about to tackle a trade, whether it's long or short, of a stock that's really made a good aggressive emotional move. That's what it is. It's a very, very important part to understand that. So when a $2 stock goes to 7, and you are looking to buy it at 7 for a 10-set move, you are really so far behind the 8-ball that you're not even realizing that. And I know a lot of the times the sexy thing to do is short that stock that went from 2 to 7. How can a stock go from 2 to 7, go any higher until you realize your account is 16? So a lot of the new traders, they focused on more of the reactionary trade, the sexy trade, the aggressive trade. And they don't realize that sexy, aggressive, fun, exciting, or all derivatives are of emotions. And you combine that with leaving your P&L up for you to see, and you watch the numbers just flash in front of your face. And then you realize 30 seconds after you're in this aggressive, exciting, flashy, sexy trade, that all your emotional levels are an overload. And you start to look at your P&L, which is the most aggressive emotional entity out there. And every single second you're seeing your P&L flash in front of your eyes. And it's all good, right? It's all good until it starts going the wrong way. And then you realize that the stock you got into is a crapshoot, right? The stock you got into is retail based. And the one thing about the retail is, retail is always the last to know, okay? The mom and pop in Wichita, Kansas, the day trader with a $1,500 account that's trading 50 shares. Retail is always the last one to know. Retail are the pawns on the chessboard. They're always let out to be the sacrificial land. Retail is always the one that goes down first. And the problem is, when you're a new trader and you're in the exciting trade and the sexy trade and you're the pawn, you die, okay? You die, because your job as a pawn is to basically get killed for the greater good. And the greater good on a majority of trades that are macro are institutionalized, okay? They're all institutional money flow. When it's time for retail to enter the trade or even realize what's going on on the sexy trade, they're about to die. They just don't even know it. And there's no better example, okay? There's absolutely no better example than what we saw on Tesla this week, okay? So Wednesday, I believe it was Wednesday, right? So Wednesday, Elon Musk announced that he will be coming out with, where Tesla will be coming out with an announcement the next day at five o'clock. So you're talking about of two full trading cycles on Tesla shares. Logically, there's a big short interest on Tesla. And logically, you know, once the momentum is going to come, Tesla is going to start to spike. So I want to show you the difference between retail and institutional participation in the same stock, in the same catalyst, in the same interval. And here's what we're talking about here. So Wednesday, I think it was either Wednesday or Thursday. So I tweeted this out pre-market and put this on our Twitter feed. Again, everybody knows, you know, this is my favorite stock to trade. So I wrote here, Tesla 304 build important. Obviously, once it starts committing to that 304 level and starts building, it should spike. Now, here's where the institutional money flow came in. If you look down here, right? I tweeted out, 320 coal sweeps are coming in, okay? And again, I'm not an options guy. I don't trade options very, very often, but I'm not a fool either, okay? I understand when there's a correlated pivot, whether it's on the 60-minute channel or on the daily channel, that is confirmed by a deep out of the money short-term expiration option sweep. It's going to attract a lot of attention. So this trade turned out to be a really great example where institutions came in, where retail came in, and the moral of the story is retail gets destroyed again. So let's talk about this. Let's talk about the art of the trade, and you decide for your own yourself if you traded Tesla in the last three days, where do you fall in, right? So you had your pivot 304 build, right? You had your pivot 304 build. 304 build was right over here. This is the upper channel of the 60-minute interval, okay? So here's technically where you're supposed to enter the trade when it starts building. So that's what we did. And then next thing we know, you get institutional money flow coming in on March expiration, right? So March expiration was like a three-day, basically a three-day rental for these guys. This is a 304. They were going in on the 320 calls. They knew, right? They knew the money flows that had come in. They knew the real reason the stocks would get the 320, not because this is like the greatest announcement coming out of all time. They knew retail was going to come in and bid off the stock over and over and over and over again. You know, jumping over each other to making sure the stock goes to 420, right? You guys remember that 420 thing, right? Financing security, right? 420. So you start collecting aggressive data, right? You start collecting aggressive data and Tesla makes this move. Remember, retail is coming in later. They're not in yet. They don't even know what's going on yet. They're coming in yet because there was absolutely no reason to buy Tesla here at 304 unless you're trained to look at the meat of the bone, right? The meat of the bone. And if you're trading channels, this is a perfect 60-minute sneaky interval that we traded perfectly. So you started seeing aggressive money flow coming in. You started seeing the institutional money coming in over, repeated buys, 315, 320 calls, over and over and over again. And then logically, with the short interest, the stock starts to spike, right? So retail starts chasing the stock from 304 to 310. So you talk about a $6 candle. Remember, the 320 calls came in. So that's kind of where they need the stock. And then over and over again, the news starts to spread, right? Over and over again, retail jumps into here, retail jumps into here, and they keep on chasing and chasing and chasing. The one thing that retail traders get confused of making money or making money properly, okay? They're chasing the headline. They don't want to miss the trade. They want to make sure they're the ones that tell their friends the story. I was right. I was right. I knew about this news before anybody except for the people who bought the stock at 304. And as each candle grows and grows and grows, more shorts again squeezed, more new new retail is coming in. Because again, no professional trader is buying the stock up here. After a $7 move in a candle, what raise your hand if you've been trading for five to 10 to 15 years, are you chasing the stock up $7 on one candle? I'll wait, right? So more retail is coming into the stock, right? So at this point, they're turning around and saying, tomorrow here comes the announcement. Here comes the announcement. Here comes the announcement. You don't want to miss it. You don't want to miss it. So let's talk about this, right? Let's talk about this. So we know 304, right? 304 was a 60-minute channel, right? Again, collecting data. We know 304 was a 60-minute channel. We also know, okay, there's a reference here, that institutional money keeps on coming in over and over again at 320, okay? So you got that. You got that, right? You got check mark one. You got check mark two. So now the day starts getting better and better and better and better and better. Everybody's buying Tesla left and right, left and right, left and right, left and right. And then we get to the next day, right? And then we get to the next day, okay? So we get to the next day. So here's the question, okay? Here's the question that comes along. And this is the funniest part about it, is as we're up four or five points in the trade, some guys call them your sheep. That's a whole different story. So we get to the next day, right? The next day comes along and this is what happens, okay? This is what happens. People start buying the stock left and right, left and right, because again, we know there's a big announcement coming. The problem is everybody knew what the announcement was for the exception of the $35,000 car, okay? Everybody kind of knew for the last two days what was going to happen. The only people that didn't know were retail, right? They were still chasing the big announcement. And when the big announcement finally came and I tweeted about this, I tweeted about this the same day and I said to myself, well, let me get this straight. You didn't buy the stock at 304. You didn't buy the stock on the 316 confirmation, okay? So right, so you got 304. You got 304. So you didn't buy it on the 304, okay? You didn't buy this on the 316 confirmation. Okay, there was also a 316 confirmation, okay? You didn't buy this on the washout, okay? Into 312, which we did in the previous day, okay? So you didn't buy it at all. But for whatever reason, okay? For whatever reason you need to do, right? So here's the 313, right? 313 back test. So you didn't buy it on the 313 back test. You didn't buy it on the 304 initial break, okay? So keep this in mind. Retail is not participating at these levels, okay? So you go on and on and on and on and on, okay? Until we get those levels, until we start seeing these levels here and then I said, okay, okay. You didn't buy 304. You didn't buy the back test of 313. Now I wrote any build over 316. The short's gonna have a problem, right? So 316 comes along, 316 comes along, and they explode the stock again. And here comes retail. The market's about to close. You didn't love it in 304. You didn't love it in 313 back test. You didn't love it in 316. I must have the stock at 323, right? I need to own the stock at 323. Stock has just gone from 304 to 323. I must have it at 323. I don't wanna miss it. I don't wanna miss. Take a step back, right? Take a step back. It doesn't need to be tested, okay? It doesn't need to be tested. It could be a $7 stock that goes to 15. It could be a $2 stock that goes to 9. It could be an $11 stock that goes to 26, okay? Your job as a professional trader is to assess risk. You're the only question you should be asking. Well, there's several questions you should be asking. But one of the most important questions that you should always be asking is, is there a value for me in the trade? Is my money safe? Is the risk defined? And how much meat of the bone is left, right? So when you're buying a stock that's up 200%, 300%, every single new trader wakes up and says, let me see where the hot stock is. What's the hot stock of the day? You look at the pre-market high list, you got a stock that goes from a dollar to four and a half. Oh, I'm gonna short it, or I'm gonna buy it, right? And all you're doing is you're magnifying your exposure as a retail trader, okay? That's all you're doing. There's no institutional bias coming in at levels that the average true range of the stock is 99.5% already in, okay? There's no professional trader who's gonna buy these things on a dip because the value tier system, no matter what you trade, is always at lower levels, okay? So you're never gonna get institutional participation even on a back test, okay? So what you're doing in reality is you're fighting other retail traders that 99% of the meat is already off the bone. You're literally finding the other 1% for crumbs. And when the stock finally back tests in the completely opposite direction where you are, then you realize that you've been exposed. Now, you haven't been exposed as, you haven't been exposed as a trader who lacks the ability to make money. You're exposed as a trader that has the lack of ability that has a process. And the problem with that is you keep on repeating the same thing over and over and over again and you're getting nowhere. So all those traders that I constantly hear on social media always complaining about, oh my God, I got burnt again. I'm holding the bag again. But yet you keep on doing the same thing over and over again and you're expecting different results. At some point, you have to stop, okay? At some point, you have to look yourself in the mirror and say, well, wait a minute, I'm doing this for six months, a year, two years, two and a half years. I'm doing the same thing over and over again. I'm not finding any consistency. What's wrong with this situation? And until you're looking yourself in the mirror and say, well, wait a minute, I'm not getting anywhere doing this and there has to be a better way, you'll never put yourself in a position for longevity. That's a fact. That's not an opinion. I don't care what you trade. You could be chasing up a $200 stock, a $300 stock, a $50 stock. It doesn't make a difference. But if your only process is looking at the pre-market high list or the pre-market low list, okay, to short stocks down 70% or buy stocks up 200%, you have a floor process. It's a fact, okay? You have a floor process. If you didn't have a floor process, right, you'd be consistent. And the one thing that I hear all the time from especially many new traders is, well, I've been trading these small caps for two years. Well, I still can't find my consistency. Well, why don't you stop trading the small caps, right? Well, I've been trading futures for two years. I can't find any consistency. Well, maybe you should stop trading futures, right? There's always something out there. I say this every single week of all these updates. You'll never know what you could possibly be good at until you try everything, right? Until you try everything. There's no such thing as the perfect process. There's no such thing as the perfect type of way. The best way of trading is what makes you feel comfortable. What makes you sleep well at night, okay? What gives you the ability that is protecting your capital but yet giving you a definitive advantage over the other person on your trade. But when you're constantly chasing a stock or chasing a trade, that's 90%, 95%, that's average true volume or average true range is already in. How do you expect to make money? Or even so, how do you expect to be consistent with that money? And it's a very, very important part of trading that many people don't discuss. Many people don't even know because they think this is normal. This is the normal way of trading. And when they realize a year, two years, three years later, they've kept on doing the same thing as pretty much everybody else and they're expecting abnormal results. Well, again, you're in the same pot. I say this every single time. If 90, 95%, whatever the number is, the social media number is, if 90, 95% of traders are not making money, right? Well, why would you want to be in the same trade as them, right? And again, 304 came and went. Not a chirp, right? Not a chirp. Social media and everybody will woke up and say, well, Tesla's breaking out of 315. I mean, this is $1011 later and the chasers on. And slowly but surely retail was the forefront. They were the pawns. And again, at the end of the day, they became the sacrificial lambs. So again, if you want to be a professional trader, guys, if you want to have really good longevity in this business, you can't lead with your chin. I mean, again, I say this all the time. You cannot lead with your chin. You have to lead with your shield. You have to be protective first and after a second, and not the other way around. Because again, when you constantly put your feet to the fire, I mean, what do you think is going to happen? You're going to constantly get burnt. And that's a fact. It's an opinion. It's a fact. And for all you guys who have been trading for one, two, three years and you're still doing the same thing over and over again and you can't get anywhere, that should be the big light bulb. That should be shining bright on top of your head. It's time for a change. You've got to look in the mirror. You have to be truthful to yourself. If you want to be a professional trader, aspiring professional trader, you have to make that change. Nobody's going to do it for you. Okay? Nobody's going to tap you on the shoulder and say, hey, by the way, you should try this. You have to wake up because again, at the end of the day, it's your harder money. If it's your dream and your passion, whatever the case may be to be a professional trader, you have to exhort every single avenue to make yourself better. If not, you're going to go away and you're going to become a statistic like everything else. So again, if you want to become a professional trader, make sure you're putting yourself in a really, really good position, okay? Your foundation is rock solid. Your process is rock solid. Your ability to remove yourself from emotional levels is getting to where you want to be and you want to make sure every single day you have a true shot of making money. And that's a very, very, very basic way of looking at trading instead of the hot, the sexy, the exciting, okay? Your trading is supposed to be boring. It's supposed to be lethargic. It's supposed to be predictable. And it's supposed to be highly probable because if not, you are in Times Square where nobody lives compared to the Upper East Side where all the people are off. So you have to make that choice. You can only do it. Nobody else is going to do it for you. But if you want to do this for a living, you have to make proper choices. So hopefully that will help you guys because this is exactly what I see every single day and I see all the traders complaining about it constantly over and over and over. So that's that. Market flat this week. Action was really, really good. Bears, again, continue to, you know, they're continuing to look for the top, right? They're looking for the top of the market and the market is not topping out, okay? The market is trying to really repeat the same thing over and over again. If you saw all the action every single day of the week, they were showing weakness every single day. They were showing strength every single day. There was no fear. And every single time, especially the Nasdaq 100, every single time the Nasdaq 100 hits some sort of support level, right? It kept on bouncing right back up and started the repeating cycle of squeezing shorts over and over and over again. And Friday was pretty much the same thing. They opened the market lower. They looked at the bulls again. They looked at the bears again in the face. They laughed at them and they started squeezing higher. The only question for Friday's session was how much aggression would there is going to be? The one thing that I noticed on Friday's session, there wasn't a lot of ranges that were expanding, okay? The only ones that were really, really expanding were Google and Amazon. We'll talk about Amazon in a second. Obviously Tesla, they got completely destroyed from the lack of any really, you know, any good news. But what I noticed was a lot of ranges were contracting, okay? And when you come to like really over extensive levels, you start to see two things, okay? Two things possibly occurring. You possibly could see something called the rounding top, okay? Not to say we're in, but again, we're trying to adapt more clues to see if this potentially is happening. After you have a really, really big, especially gorilla run like we've had in the last month or so, you start seeing buyers that are tired, okay? And you are seeing sellers that are not there anymore because they got burnt all the way up through this whole move. So you're seeing and you're exposed every single day to a couple of things. You're seeing strength, you're seeing weakness, okay? And when you see strength and weakness in the same day, that means that the ranges are contracting. The one thing that I hate, okay, because I'm a range trader, I trade these beta stocks that have provide you generally the biggest ranges of the day. The one thing that I don't want to see is a contracting range. The last thing I don't want to see is Amazon trading in a $4 candle, right? A $4 channel for three, four hours. You don't want to see that, okay? You want to see expand the channels. But these are all clues to what possibly could happen during a roundabout top. Now again, nobody's saying we're in one, but it's something going into this week that we want to at least understand that it's possibly could be there. Because again, it's like gravity. Eventually gravity pulls stocks down. And the market is strong until it's not. The big level we really have to watch this week, especially in the NASDAQ 100, the Qs, is this 171.76 here. Again, we're $3 away from that. But it's something in area that we want to see. Because again, the bottom of this candle here is the 10-day moving average, which represents for me the birth of the trade to the upside and the birth of the trade to the downside. So if we close below the 10-day moving average, that's where we want to pay attention. That's when you want to kind of scale out your lungs and start looking at the short side. But until we get to that level, again, you can't put the cart in front of the horse and you have to make sure that you are going where the sentiment is. And right now, rinse repeat, rinse repeat. We're opening up lower. The dips are being bought. There is no fear. We are still starting to get contracting challenge, which I get I don't like is a small red flag. But until these stocks, and it sounds so simple what I'm about to say, but until these stocks actually stop going, they're going to go up, right? It's very simple, very idiotic to say, but it's true. These stocks are just not going down. And the perfect example of that was Amazon, right? We talked about Amazon for a week and a half, right? It just can't get going. The market's rallying. Why can't Amazon go? Why can't Amazon go? Why can't Amazon go? And this was the tightest channel up till Monday, up till Friday. This was Amazon was trading literally from 55 to 1600 for three weeks. I know it sounds like a lot, 50 points, but the average true range from this V bottom on Amazon, it was days, it was trading 50, 60 points. So 50 point moving, three weeks, range bound, talking about a range bound contraction, that was a very big problem. And I know a lot of bears were turning around and saying, well, if Amazon can't go up with the rest of the market, if Google can't go up with the rest of the market, well, they have to go down, right? Yes, theoretically. But until that happens, until you get confirmation to the downside, again, you can't put the cart in front of the horse. And what we saw Friday was a perfect example of two things happening. We say this again, we've been using this now in the live webinar for a couple of weeks. It's been really, really good. I started really paying attention to option flow. Again, not an options trader. I'm probably the biggest novice in options that anybody knows. But I know one thing, when there is a big bit, when there's an aggressive buyer coming in, either at the money with an incredibly large bet with short expiration, or out of the money with a very, very large bet in a short expiration, usually the money flows in the start coming in after it. And we just saw trade after trade after trade this week coming up the same way. And Amazon, I didn't trade a lot of things on Friday. I traded Netflix to the short side, I scouted it through the short side. And I got into Amazon twice. I did pretty well with Amazon twice. And the breakout on Amazon was 1656, right? 1656. And at the same time, you saw about 1.5 million of the March 1652 or 1655 calls being triggered at the same time. So when you have technical analysis combined with option flow, usually good things are going to happen. And you just saw Amazon just gap up, reclaim that 56 level, and just really, really start going aggressively. And the one thing that I've always told traders and inspiring traders, whatever worked for you in the past is in the past. The market's always changing, okay? I don't care how many years you're trading. It's going to be, again, 20 years for me in May. And the one thing I'm constantly trying over and over is getting better, finding a bigger edge. And I started using these option sweeps about several weeks ago. And it's really added a phenomenal dimension to everybody in the live webinar. These sweeps have been great. And when you add that and combine that with a channel being confirmed either in the 60 minute or on the daily chart, usually a good thing is going to happen. So something that we always want to get better and kind of just make different adjustments as we go along. So Friday session, Friday session didn't have a lot. But again, that's the whole point. You don't really don't need a lot to do very, very well. And, you know, here's the day. I mean, here's basically the day on Friday. We start out, we start out with ZS, right? Start out with ZS pre-market. They came out of good earnings, 58, 60. It needs to build. And again, again, it was a pretty basic, pretty basic setup 5860 was, excuse me, 5860 was right here. It was the pre-market high. Once it broke, the pre-market high started building very, very aggressively. Again, congratulations to all you guys who caught that. Amazon, yeah, so Amazon I wrote wants to break out. I'll show you in a second what level we started buying it. The second trade I took was Netflix, right? Netflix, it builds below 350, 70. It can get hit. And I shortened Netflix at the whole number because again, I'm trying to get some more liquidity. It's going to be harder to get liquidity below that number. And you can see here, you know, the low, the previous days low was 5770. And once it started going down, when it was lowest, like 54 and change. So that was fine. You know, that was fine as well. And here's kind of my point. Here's the option flow coming in 1.5 million at the 1652 area. I really, you know, took the stock up. Amazon rallied about 20, little less than 20 points. Again, I kept on putting it on social media over and over. Here's the levels. Again, nobody's trying to trick you. Technical analysis is technical analysis. Any close over 1656 is super bullish. And, you know, the stock just went. The stock just went. I mean, here's where I put in pre-market rejection 1656. It needs to build above to go. You know, yada, yada, yada. Technical analysis is the only thing you need. So for all your new traders, for all your new traders that are sitting there and you're looking for some alert services, somebody else to tell you when to jump. It's all in front of the charts. Okay. You don't need to look no further. It's all about technical analysis. And when you really embrace the idea of technical analysis and stop being the pawn and stop being the sacrificial lamb that's out on the forefront just to get slaughtered. When you start really embracing trading, you start being in control of your trading. And I'm telling you right now, there's no greater feeling than being in control of your trading. Okay. Waking up every single morning with a high probability that you will succeed, not because of a stock. It's because of your process. So going into this week, again, you know, you got to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt of the bulls below this 171, 176 level. I have to be bullish. Okay. Until the market gives me a reason not to be bullish. I will be bullish. Amazon, I still continue to like, again, first close over supply. I know a lot of you guys are holding Amazon calls or holding Amazon equity. If it can start building, if it doesn't gap up on Monday, if it starts building over 1675, you could get a move here to 1725. I like Apple, right? I like Apple here. Any close on Apple over 176. Stock looks really, really good. FISV looks really good, right? FISV looks really, really good. Nice looking setup for all you guys who don't trade beta. Look at this GCI, right? Beautiful chart. $12 break on GCI. You know, this thing could look good. Let me show you guys a couple more ideas that I do like here. Let me give you guys a couple more ideas. Let me see what else I like here. I like UPS. UPS had a good call activity on Friday. I believe 2000 of the March 112 calls traded on Friday. It starts reclaiming Friday's highs. It can go as well. And look at the CRSP, right? Look at the CRSP as well. Beautiful chart. Beautiful, beautiful chart. This thing can start reclaiming this 40, 10, 40, 15 level. A really, really big move. So I hope you guys had a really good week. I'm very, very encouraged by the action. Fantastic job for all you guys in the live webinar. Great job. Just absolutely great job. Again, it's all about teamwork. It's all about conviction. It's all about, you know, having a process and running with it. And it's all about longevity. Guys, I want to wish everybody an awesome week. Hope everybody does well. If you're joining us in the live webinar, the trading strategy starts up at 9 o'clock, 9.05 Eastern time every single day. All you guys are joining us on the Twitter feed. Starts up right before the open. So guys, have a great, great weekend. God bless. I'll see you all in the field on Monday. Take care, guys. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan? Straight off his personal watch list? Unlock our free PS60 vault where you'll get nightly updates on pivot opportunities we're watching for the next day's session. Click the link in the description to get started today.