 Welcome into the show. Essentially look at that yield story lowering the odds both in terms of yields lower but also the bets on twice more by the Fed this year seem pretty distant now, do they not? Good afternoon Cass and thanks for having me. That's right, we are seeing the expectation of this June hike pretty much fully priced in it's at 90% but the real interesting thing here would be to see if there are another one or two hikes after that and that's really what we'll be listening to on the 14th to find out where we go from here. Goldman Sachs on Friday actually priced they had an expectation for a September hike and they've actually now pushed that back and priced that in for December so it seems to be that this expectation is waning a bit and it seems to be it's going to be either pushed out to next year if at all. Yeah the the call it from BK asset management is that they won't provide strong guidance on future tightening following the June decision are you hearing differently? Yeah I actually do agree with that and I think the reason for that is that they'll just wait and see what what happens from here they've very much talked about this June this June rate hike and prior to that the data had actually been quite strong it's only really been the last few months or so that we have had some negative prints come through and that seems to be an ongoing trend so I think they will pull back a bit and just wait to see what the those further prints are data prints are to then you know come to market and make a statement about the future of it. The dollar of the looks decidedly unloved because let's face it in order to keep the optimism in play you really have to have progress on tax cuts and fiscal spending neither of which seem likely the side of Christmas. Yeah that's right I think Trump certainly did talk up his budget with the tax cuts and the infrastructure spend but he's been a bit distracted with some other you know political uncertainty and the likes of what is going on over with the Comey meeting Congress and the likes of that and so the expectation actually is that all of those the core infrastructure spend and all that will be pushed out until 2018 and so that's really been priced out of the market now and we're seeing that come through and in yields. Yeah we're looking at the 10 year UST and then a comparison with the Australian equivalent the 18 bit differential how much more of a tightening story might we expect even post-RBA this week. Yeah I think there's another another good you know up to five basis points to go in that in in this week and then whatever we'll see next week come through with the rate hike expected out of the Fed on on the 14th so I think with the RBA if anything there's a 20% chance priced in for a rate cut from the RBA later this year and then this rate hike from the out of the Fed next week I think we will see that compress even tighter again over the next coming week. Yeah I was going to say is that if anything a misprice the 20% given that we could well get a negative GDP print come Wednesday so might we perhaps be bracing for more like a 45% move on perhaps further easing. Yeah Carlson I think you're actually really right there this prior to let's say a couple of weeks ago that was actually priced in at 10% it's only recently gone to 20% but I do think there is I think that will increase the chances of that I think with the the fall in house prices that we've seen a first couple of prints come through May was the first month that that had decreased in 18 months and I think now that pricing the house pricing seems to be cooling in Sydney in particular it was down 1.3% I think it now does give a bit of leeway for the RBA to cut where previously we hadn't seen that. Technically do they judge it though to be transit tree and therefore they might just well sit on their hands till Q2 say let's get validation of this and not jump the gun you know in other words the old argument of being ahead of the curve or being passive but ready to be there for the cleanup. Yeah I think you're right that the RBA certainly does like to wait and see that generally has been their stance in a lot of situations and they do like to see a lot of hard data come through before making any decisions I think they're one central bank that certainly doesn't want to have to make a decision and then go back on it like some others have a New Zealand in particular so I think they definitely will wait to see some more prints as you mentioned GDP that's due out which is expected to be quite weak so I think they will wait for to get a fuller picture before they really do make any big decisions. Jessica thank you as always have a good week. Lovely thanks Carson. All the best Jessica Russet live at FIG for