 Now, NVIDIA is going to be a big deal, and the reason why it's such a big deal, it's not even because it's the last bullet. It's really, you know, it's really sentiment here. Just think about this. You know, this stock is not your ordinary name coming out with earnings. Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of TheAxisTrader.com. Nightly update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a good trading day. Hope everybody is enjoying their lines. And again, hope everybody is happy. That's the most important thing of any single day after everything else, life, happiness, and all that crap that we have follows is just a gravy on top that we try to rationalize to feed our own ingots. So again, it's all about happiness, all about health, so hopefully both are in your life. So let's talk about the tape. So let's do a quick history lesson. Again, we blow the 20-day moving average. This was about three weeks ago, and in the midst of the 20-day moving average, why it was so important. Again, we lost this whole major trend line that we had for 2023. Again, did the market go straight down? No, absolutely not. We had some moves down, we had some moves up, we had some moves down, but all this was taking place below the 20-day moving average. Then we went all the way down to the 50-day moving average, held there for a couple days. Then we finally got below the 50-day moving average, and again, we went down three, four straight days, and now we're having a little bit of a dead cat balance in the last couple of days. And the question was, how long, right? That was the question for last night's video, how long can this dead cat bounce? Just like yesterday, the market started moving up. The market got pulled, right? The market got pulled. Just like yesterday, the only difference between yesterday and today's session was yesterday, the market came back like a rabid hyena that hasn't eaten in a week versus today. You can see here by the 60-minute view, we gapped today, and we went straight down, the queue's down about 50 cents in the day. The most important part is, it's not a question of, is that the end of the dead cat bounce? Because keep this in mind, all this activity is happening below the 50-day moving average, so we're one, two, three, four, five, six, seven. Tomorrow will be day eight below the 50-day moving average. Like I said, for me to feel comfortable, risk back on, we're going to have to reclaim back this 370, 371 area on the close where the coast is clear. The problem with getting back above the 50-day moving average is, well, you need some sort of cattle. We went through the entire earnings season, mixed bag of earnings as we all saw, Tesla, Netflix, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Google, Amazon, and none of that really did anything, right? You had random days up, you had random days down, but ultimately we are here. We are below supply, and nothing good macro-wise happens below supply. Now, the question is, well, where's the catalyst? What's going to get us back above the 50-day moving average? Here's the answer here. Tomorrow is in the video. I believe tomorrow is probably the last bullet of sentiment. The bulls are probably going to hang on to for the near future. The reason why I say that is, all the other major companies are out of the way. Matter of fact, when you look at the landscape, the landscape of what's been going on for the last several days or the last several weeks, you're seeing pressure in S&P names and down names in energy, and today you saw pressure in retail, and you saw continued pressure with banks. S&P today downgraded selective banks, kind of took the cue from Fitch from a couple of weeks ago. I believe Moody's as well. I could be wrong on Moody's, but definitely Fitch. That took the pressure down. Today, Letter M, Macy's, which I still have a runner short overnight. You had Letter M and Dick's Sporting Goods, very light. Very, very light. Soft guidance, blamed consumer confidence, basically via credit card, the false that they're seeing or late payments, so that obviously didn't firm well. When you have the two strongest groups in Main Street, the Main Street America part of Wall Street, which is retail and which is the banks, and they're putting pressure, it's very, very tough to get excited. Well, what's the next catalyst up again? Is it possible everything gets negated because, again, bad news gets negated all the time, and the market a week from now is back above the 50-day moving average of a rallying, and everything I've been saying is completely irrelevant because the market deemed it irrelevant, but there's a flip side, right? There's a flip side, and that's kind of our reality. Again, we continue to build below supply, not only in the cues. When you look at the spies, right, when you look at the spies, the spies are one, two, three, four, five days, right? Five days, they had a dead cat bounce, got rejected off the 100-day moving average, completely rolled over. If you look at the IWM, there's no rally at all on the IWM. The IWM has been below the 50-day moving average for two weeks, had one update, and it's done absolutely nothing. It's in a stalemate. It's not a stalemate to go higher. It's a stalemate potential to get below this bottom channel. When you look at the diamonds, right, the Dow Jones industrial average. Now this is day four below the 50-day moving average, and now we're putting in lower highs below the five-day, which is the shortest term sentiment. So yeah, NVIDIA is going to be a big deal. And the reason why it's such a big deal, it's not even because it's the last bullet, it's really, you know, it's really sentiment here. You just think about this. You know, this stock is not your ordinary name coming out with earnings that had a big run. You had stocks that had big runs, and then you have stocks that up 212% year-to-day coming out with earnings, okay? And it's trading like a low-float stock. So this has been on a tremendous tear. We had a phenomenal, phenomenal reversal today. Congratulations to everybody who caught the couple of pivots today through the downside and the NVIDIA. But these are the facts. I think with a 212% year-to-date type of scenario, I think in my opinion, and I don't know, right? I have no idea what's going to happen tomorrow on earnings. You could literally have, you could literally sit there with the earnings report in front of your face going into earnings, and the price action might completely go the opposite of your way. It's, when I talk about a gamble, it's a gamble. It doesn't take a lot of skill set into bet into earnings play. It's just, it's luck. It's like, again, it's like this 10 major league baseball games tonight. Why don't you just go on Draftkins? At least you could watch a baseball game for three hours. It's pure gambling. Tomorrow you're going to see people yellow in on the long side. You have yellow in on the short side, and you have people destroy their account one way, destroy their account on the other way. And again, at least they have a story to tell or block post the right. But again, for all of us who are responsible adults, we kind of know, you know, the other plays, you know, leading up to the video, leading after the video is going to, to really command our attention for the short term. And here, you know, here are the numbers. You have the estimates for tomorrow. You have 8.25 for earnings EPS, and you have 44 and a half billion dollars for revenue. And again, in my opinion, they have to destroy their numbers to continue this. And again, I might be wrong. They might miss the numbers and continue to rally. But again, I think tomorrow is going to be a very, very important last bullet. Okay. I don't want to, you know, make it more dramatic than it is. But again, if you've been watching, if you're an active trader, you kind of know the significance of tomorrow's session. Okay. Do we continue the, you know, we get rejected and continue to build below the 50 day moving average and the video seals, you know, the faith of the bulls? Very possible. You know, can the video come out with a quarter and it's up 100 points tomorrow? Absolutely. The options market right now with pricing and I believe a 43 point move in either direction. We saw 500 calls. We saw 500, 400 puts guns. It's a crapshoot. It's an absolute crapshoot. But the most important part is what happens after the report. Look, the jury is out yet. Like I was talking today in the webinar, it wasn't one of those five star overnights just because we gave back, just because we gave back today's gains. Because again, at the end of the day, we still put in a higher low from yesterday's session, which put in a higher low from the previous session where it's going to be a very, very important is this five day moving average. In case tomorrow, in case tomorrow we give up the five day moving average and the five day moving average right now is 361 on the cues. That's going to be the most important part because right now they got rejected off the 100, they got rejected off the 10. The last area here, if they lose the five day moving average and if they do lose the five day moving average of 361, which is basically the line in the sand, then yeah, we're going to start coming back into recent lows from several days ago. So again, tomorrow is a very, very important day. I have predominantly stocks that I'm looking for follow through to the downside tomorrow. I don't really see any charts that are standing out right now. And I say buy me, buy me. It's just again, it's one of those scenarios. So 361 guys, that is the line in the sand going into tomorrow. Is it possible we have one of those sessions tomorrow that everything is quiet? Everybody's waiting for, everybody is ready waiting for the Jackson Hole, waiting for you know, the NVIDIA. Listen, everything is possible, right? Everything's on the table, right? Like I say, every single day, you have to be prepared and that's what we do. We are prepared every single day in the most important part going into tomorrow's session. I know that how important that 361 level. So we continue to tear, teeter, teeter, and the video comes out with bad numbers. Again, you don't need to convince me three times. I need to take some sort of Twitter poll of what people think is going to happen. We lose that 361 on the close on the queues. We're going back down to recent lows. So it's very, very important to see what happens tomorrow. You know, names that I like for tomorrow, we started shorting this letter M today, opening range lows, stock pretty much closed at the lows. Again, softness and retail, not a good look for Main Street. You know, listen, this thing starts confirming below today's channels tomorrow. This thing's going to get hit. Look at DKS for tomorrow. Again, another stock that got hit. Look at the 60-minute view. Look at the 60-minute view on Dix. This thing starts losing the 60-minute view. Dix has gone lower. It's only transitory, honey. I promise it's only transitory. So Dix looks good. Urban Outfitters reported after the close up a buck. But again, up a buck on our earnings. But we know what happens on earnings. What happens tomorrow if Urban Outfitters gives back its earnings and starts confirming the 50-day moving average, right? This thing's going to go lower as well. Disney, I've been watching for weeks and weeks and weeks. They keep on getting close to the bottom of the range and then keeps on balancing. I'm still watching it, guys. This is something that you should warrant your attention for the next couple of days, maybe next couple of weeks. But because if Disney starts losing the bottom of this channel here, again, this is nearly a two-month consolidation. It could be good, right? So it's something we definitely want to watch for tomorrow as well. Outside the bigger names, just to give you an example how sentiment has shifted a little bit, both Amazon and Google were upgraded this morning, right? Amazon was red. I mean, well, again, in a good market, you don't see stocks that are upgraded going back down. Tesla had a great two-day run, got rejected off the 20-day. I want to watch this thing. Let's watch Tesla again tomorrow. This thing starts losing back the 100-day moving average. Who the hell knows? Maybe this thing starts going back to recent lows. The stage is set tomorrow. You've got the Fed. You've got the Fed. You have NVIDIA. All eyes obviously on NVIDIA. Again, if the bulls have one bullet, it's going to be NVIDIA. And the one thing that I will tell, especially through the new traders, guys, you have a long career. You don't need to gamble your account on earnings. You don't. I understand the euphoria is in the air. Everything wants its easy money. You guys remember what that sounds like? It's like when they were betting the 300 calls on Tesla. You guys remember that? Easy money. Easy money. It's free money. It's free money. It's free money. It's free money. Tesla at one point was 85 points off the recent run. So again, there's no such thing as easy money. Take your bites. You don't eat the whole cow. When you go into the restaurant, for example, you don't order everything on the menu. You order your specific dish. Take small bites. That's what this business is all about. Small bites, small bites, small bites. You don't want to be overly gordish, right? El Gordo. So guys, for all you guys who are thinking about yoloing in one way or another, again, if you want a long career, think back. Take a step back. If you're doing this strictly for the gamble, strictly for the joy, I wish God is on your side and hopefully it will work out in your way. Guys, have a great night, everybody. Let's see what happens tomorrow. And when God's help, all of us will be there. Take care.