 Good morning. It's 8 o'clock the 1st of November. Welcome to a new month everyone I'll quickly go through the disclaimers all book map limited materials information and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations trading futures equities and digital currencies involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors past performance is not necessary indicative of future results okay I know we've got some news coming up so just like a very very quick look at the snapshot of a book map for NQ on the left and ES on the right and that is zoomed out horizontally so and vertically and the reason really is to show you that some of that liquidity banding was really really useful and that's one of the reasons why we do zoom out anyway we'll get into that but I'm aware that we have the ADP non-farm payrolls at 8 15 so let's quickly run through some of the slides and yeah I hope everybody's having a good start of the month me just a long so yeah if we look at what is coming on board I'm just checking YouTube is still running as well yep it is that's great yeah everything is fine we've got the ADP non-farm employment change at 8 15 and it's also a heavy news day because if you look at 945 you've got the final manufacturing PMI and 10 o'clock you've got ISM manufacturing and jolts and you've also got some construction spending so 10 o'clock is a big one as well but we've got a big one at 8 15 I have a feeling it's not going to be as big as the 10 but we should still get some volatility and we can try and get that financial juice audio feed working for us at that time so everybody can share in it and watch bookmap live okay just looking across there if we look at the daily yeah one thing I want to point out here I mean this is the trend line or approximation of that trend line or daily liquidity on ES this line just down here the bottom one is called the reverse trend line I don't know if many people have studied these reverse trend lines they're often used where there's no neat line that joins up you know all the swing highs on the way down or the swing lows on the way up and this is a case here because you've got three that are on a trend line and the fourth if that is the fourth swing point is nowhere near so at that point you then draw a reverse trend line which connects the lows on the way down and the idea and this is from I'm sorry who I revered and David Weiss who's no longer with us and I do recommend his book trades about to happen if you ever want to really read it about trend lines and some of the Wycoff stuff some of the Elliott Wave stuff but he was he was very good at what he did and he's also very very good at the springs up thrust he sadly passed away a couple of years ago but anyway moving on to what he actually said about these reverse trend lines the idea is that if you've got these reverse trend lines and it's steeper and you can see that the angle is steeper on the on the ES going down that is on on the reverse trend line than it is on the trend lines so this rather than this and then we break that that has a very very high probability of being a fake break out in other words rebounding quickly so that is what happened here but that's really the main purpose of these and I'll show you one on the next slide which isn't correct so if we move on to that one you can see here that the reverse trend line or the one that I drew previously that's shallower than the normal trend line on NQ so that same rule of thumb about high probability breaks that does not apply I know it did happen here but that's not what he wrote about or talked about so let's just move on again I know I'm doing this in a little bit of rush it's just because we have that 815 and really wouldn't mind just having a look at book map before we do it okay the ten minute chart again it's really to see where we are in terms of where we are vis-a-vis yesterday and you can see that you know even though we just remembering what I did actually yeah I did do this one just now just checking because we've been on such a good down run here on this channel down you know we're only at yesterday's mid on ES so all we've been doing is going through the top half of a very wide value area and we can look at that on the TPO in a little bit and NQ it's the same thing just exploring the top half of that large value area so if we get rid of that and we get back to the charts let me just drag over the TPO so we've got the real one and we can still look at book map at the same time so I'm here I pointed out in the channel that this is a poor high and we've actually got a resting iceberg way up from where we are at the moment and you can see that up there at 4211 so I do not predict anything I don't think anybody should I think if you start predicting things you get trapped in trades and you'll miss some much better trades but it would not surprise me because nothing really surprises me in this market if we didn't have a big reversal either off this news or the 10 a.m. news and we came out up and took out that poor high either today or tomorrow that really would not surprise me it's really hard to draw an estimated value when the profile looks like that so what I did was was I went to the LVN of yesterday just there I mean if I break that down into into the value you can see that the the value is essentially the top half here or top two thirds and that's what I took up to a sort of an LVN or previous days low from back over here but really it's pretty meaningless when it's that big so you're expecting some decent swings and you would not be surprised if it was choppy that's all that really tells me you know we can get some much better looks from other days but that's all I got on this one and let's get rid of that one and do the NQ because I still as I say always I do trade more NQ in the ETH session simply because I find it more readable and the swings are better in terms of getting multiple R results so yeah for NQ I basically put my estimated value range as the whole of yesterday's range in RTH and a bit more so just taking it all the way down to this LVN here and that up to the LVN there in other words another massive range so now we've seen that we'd traversed half of it but you know we could have gone much further why do I say that let's just drag in the stats try make them a little bit bigger so the font is not terrible so even though the relative volume is only 67% you know we we've got about two that's actually that's actually relatively good in terms of if you look across the ETH 82 out of 120 that is two-thirds relative volume two-thirds so it's pretty consistent so sometimes it's useful in that way again I wouldn't use it to predict exactly how far the range would be but it can be useful like that sometimes but it is certainly more useful than not and that's why I have it so basically what I'm saying is we're in a wide value range where we're chopping around we may be due for a bounce but let's have a look at book map to see what it was telling us as we come up to what times now 808 so we've got about six or seven minutes before this by the way if anybody's got any questions feel free to ask them on YouTube or the discord channel so yeah what was this telling us so if we zoom right out it's really hard again I've used the word really hard a couple of times here the algo bands in NQ make this picture dreadful but what you can see it is if we look from this evening onwards and we drag the NQ back you can see these thick bands here there there and there so that they did provide some use both in terms of magnetism to draw them down and then resistance in terms of a wall where they haven't been able to penetrate above so in ES it's been much much better so this is the whole of the ETH session and you can see this huge wall and this often happens you know when you get this kind of wall which is many many levels of high liquidity it tends to attract it and then provides a very very strong first point of wall and resistance in this case because it was going up support if it had been going down so you know that is really really useful I mean you've got this liquidity earlier on but as they build it all the way up there it becomes very very difficult for them to go all the way through and that is the case but there is that resting liquidity at those are the overnight high effectively I think that's where it is 4211 50 and if I have a look just checking where it is on my other charts yeah 4211 50 okay so that is the overnight high so again those can often be a really good target once we get into a long to go for and it'll be interesting to see whether that is the case here there was some quite good action in NQ a few minutes ago at 751 some really good signs of of a plunge down and then clear buying so if we actually try and blow this one up at 751 go all the way there see what we could have seen in book map 751 right around here so I'm just saying that this was a really really good tail and there was also some buying that went in there it's not easy it easy to see the buying there but you can see a very very good trap tail I think I mentioned that you know in Sierra I've got like a visual time and sales so I can see you know when we get buy sizes that I'm interested in NQ at low so when I get multiple orders of around about 20 plus in this kind of zone it gives me a clue that they might be coming for some kind of reversal and that is what happened here but what I find the most useful in book map is this tail and quite often these large volumes hitting liquidity or this one just plunged through so on a candle chart that would have had quite a big wick you know whether it's a 30 second or a one minute chart and you know what on a one minute chart you probably have had let's draw I haven't actually got my drawing tool so let me drag it across and draw what we would have likely seen if I can if it's going to come for me sometimes this drawing tool is painful there it is so on a candle you'd probably got some nice candles you know depending on the time frame you've chosen you might have got candles like that and that's how you can equate that kind of action with what you see in book map you know with a price line I've got a price line because that's what I prefer some people refer bid and ask I like it being discreet so it almost blends into the darkness of the heat map but that's essentially what you would have seen on a candle candle chart but I prefer this especially these large trades okay and we are going to turn on the financial juice feed because we've got literally two minutes left let's get back to there and yeah let's talk about where we are now so you can see on this that they put this resting liquidity up at their four two hundreds you know the nice round number and now they're driving into it right into the news they've placed some liquidity down here and they've removed some liquidity a bit further down so I'm not expecting them to go all the way down there like this news release and I'm still watching this resting cell iceberg up above to see whether they either go for some rapid drive now or later and when we get a chance after this and users died down and we aren't doing the live order analysis we can we can go back and look at some of the stuff that we could have seen in ETH especially around you know the London session I was trading today and I hope I'm going to get a chance to trade tonight probably will not trade the RTH open but probably from about 9 40 a.m. Eastern onwards are given an hour hour and a half two hours max so we have 4201 they've lit that up and they've also lit up this area here 4204 so now begin to zoom in okay some some of you may be hearing that feed down to one minute please can you activate subtitles in your video that's a comment from parlans on YouTube sorry parlans I don't have control of the YouTube channel it belongs to bookmap I'm essentially a guest speaker so I cannot change those settings I will slow down now that I've done my opening 10 minutes I just wanted to speak quickly because we had the news coming in in now 10 seconds so let's just see what happens here so the news was cooler than expected but higher than the previous that's what the words were I'll turn off that stream now so we won't get distracted by it so the first thing that they did was go straight up to this liquidity marker which was actually got removed right on the news but that was the marker they'd put there and they went straight up to it and NQ went straight up to its resting liquidity as well and now we're chopping around or or retracing the scene of the crime so maybe once again we'll try and draw essentially really around about here maybe out by a tick it might be a tick higher or two ticks higher than that so we've retraced down to the scene of the crime but we haven't gone to the other side just yet so let's just see up above see if they've removed anything or they've left them and below as well so we have to keep an open mind with this we can't assume that it's going to keep it going to go straight up even though that was likely I mean for example you know I put into the discord channel when I wake up a screenshot of that poor high from yesterday's RTH session if I had been fixated upon that I would not have had any long or short trades in the London session because I would have been you know I would just let that consume my mind rather than let the market tell me what it wants to do right now and right now it looks like it's like we're trying to get some fuel before we go anywhere so this is kind of what I was thinking that we wouldn't have the level of volatility that we're likely to get at the 10 a.m. release I'm just watching it here before we talk about anything in particular so the resting iceberg is up there I'm just marking it for people so that's the iceberg then you've got this scene of the crime so you just re-identifying the market generates information those are the two most pertinent ones we've got some resting liquidity up here at the top and if I go back to the cursor and zoom down all these levels are going to be wrong now but you've got this liquidity ban below as well so that is the problem we are not drawing in bookmap itself but you're drawing on the screen that all those markings will be wrong so eventually essentially we're just in a small band here so between 4201 and 4198 so a three-point band that's pretty tame for a for a large economic release it's not read on the calendar that I looked at but maybe it's an orange kind of economic release on some didn't used to be the huge one non-farm payrolls itself yes but not ADP non-farm yes I'm still favoring an upside move eventually I mean I think part of what we saw in the European session was really getting fuel to go up in other words it's the usual it the market goes down first to go up but it does not mean we won't chop around here until 930 if we look at the NQ resting liquidity over on the left even though I don't tend to look at the round numbers which here is 14 450 we've got another one which is almost as large two ticks below it so it you know it takes it out of just a round number equation and draws my attention to it as a potential magnet and you can see what essentially happened on the news spike up in NQ came back to the scene of the crime spikes straight back up you know this is you know this is different to what I was talking about the way that they often take back some of these big spikes because this is a news related one so it doesn't fall into that category but it is what happened there and now if we zoom right in to work out where they're accumulating fuel so we're just watching these Delta tales to see where they're trapping people to potentially get up to this resting liquidity up there so the first thing that they had was liquidity there and you can see within the space of three or four or five ticks a lot of red Delta and they've used that as fuel they're trying to get up there it's a question of have they got enough fuel yet or they're gonna have to play this chop game for another 30 minutes when this scene of the crime is breached on ES over here at 4198 and I'll lose my my bullishness for the time being you know so it's really the line in the sand in the same way was when we looked at this on the last time we had news release can't remember that was on Friday or last Wednesday I need to zoom out again to have a good check of how far NQ could drop to go and find something it's nothing major below just you know these are really just temporary little algo bands of liquidity so it's really just watching these areas and seeing when they're gonna get the fuel so you want a nice really long tail of red to drive you back up and here we are on Friday I think what we had was a spring right at the scene of the crime so it'd be interesting to see if they do that again or they play a different game and go to the other side just doing a time check so we haven't quite had 15 minutes from the news release it's something that I tend to talk about occasionally which is when it's a trend today and you have a major economic release I'm not sure this falls quite into that category I'm not about the trend day because I can't predict the future but this news release not being of the major major category but when when you do have a news release of a major category and you have a lot of volatility at that release then if it is going to be a trend day the high or low of the next umpteen hours is normally set within the first 15 minutes of the news release yeah and part of it is it gives you the fuel for the exploration you've got not just the volatility in the intraday price action but you've also got other players coming into the market who don't care about that in the same way as you and I might and they have their own fuel to drive it much higher or lower so we're just chopping around exactly where that news release was at 8 15 and both in ES and NQ okay so I think maybe we should move on from there okay um I was as always I always like to talk about something you know that's on my mind and something that you know may be of interest to people watching this webinar and maybe something that you're not necessarily thinking about in your current day-to-day trading analysis one of the things I was watching a YouTube by one of my friends from the internet that I made a few years ago fat cat I don't know if many people watch his videos but they're quite good and yeah he was saying at the beginning sorry the very end of his YouTube that one of the tips that he recommended to people was to learn poker you know many of the people who are successful at trading or you know there is quite an overlap between the ability to be successful at trading and the ability to be successful at poker it was always something on on my list that I'd never ever got round to but I thought on this occasion you know that would that would fill my little education bucket for me at the moment and it's also something you know as I go through it I'm happy to talk about in these webinars but one of the things that that does strike me straight away and I wonder if I can actually draw a little table let me see if I can just get my little square or circles here just yeah so while we watch this action at the at the scene of the cry I'm just gonna basically draw table a poker table and there is a reason why I'm going to do this so these are all just people I'm not sure whether I've got the right number of hands or not and I need a freelance tool or maybe I'll just use you know just so the dealer this the reason why I wanted to draw it was because of the SB and the big B okay back the cursor so well so I'm trying to do this and watch the market at the same time so we have this live order flow analysis not that there is much happening and actually that there is confluence between that and one of the initial learnings that I that I picked up from you know from tips on how to learn to be a better poker player not that I I'm much for poker player okay I've drawn this table because you know after dealer who's here has dealt the cards the person who is at the SB or small blind position must place the minimum bet you know if it's a if it's a one dollar table that will be one dollar and then the big blind person the person who's sitting here has to place the big blind which is normally double that so if it's a one slash two dollar table this person would put one dollar down and this person would put two dollars down and that would be obligatory they'd have to do that if they were in that position whether they liked it or not right but what it is interesting where it does crossover into trading just just the very very first point I picked up was that there's a lot more in terms of mathematical certainty and the probabilities of the particular cards that you dealt with so in poker on this first deal out you get two cards each and then you know during the course of the game a further three then one then one i.e. five cards are placed in the middle that are open to everybody but a lot of the maths about being successful is about the first two cards that you're dealt with right and it's a quality of your hand and there are a lot of views that unless you have a good hand and a good hand essentially is defined by having either a pair or a royal kind of card or basically two high cards preferably of the same suit and if you don't have those cards then you should just fold and not play but if you're in these two positions you have to play so you know they put money down you know you and your trading will have put money down but they because they have not necessarily got good hands if they don't have good hands they'll fold immediately when it gets back to them so in other words they will take their minimum stops every single time and one of the problems that you know that we have in trading is that there is so little said about getting it wrong and being stopped out that it's almost ignominious and people never want to admit when they're wrong and you know this results in the kind of behavior where when you don't accept your stops you let your stops run and then you break your trading account right in poker it is accepted just by absolutely everybody that you have lots and lots and lots of these folds either at the beginning of the of the of the particular hand or the game or during the course of that hand whereas you know you can look in our trading and you can look in you know you can look in any discord you can look in the bookmap discord you can look in any other discord and you will see very very very few occasions where people have screenshot and talked about where they've taken the stop it's really a rarity even though you know it's something that I've said when I was looking at the expectancy calculator and showing you how I built mine and how I model what I'm doing on the back of it and how I model on 50% regardless of you know whether I'm beating it by much or not that I'm modeling my profitability on that and my expectancy on that so you know it is something where poker has a direct relation to trading but I'd say that and there's less shame in poker plays aha here we go 830 I didn't realize there's another bit of news here we just had a massive pick of volatility we've gone straight through that resting liquidity that we were we were talking about and now maybe we've had some kickoff towards this resting iceberg up above so that was the thing that we were monitoring and saying that there was a potential for us to eventually get up there so NQ has taken off I'm just reading the news on financial juice actually there's nothing really the news that just flashed up is that the US Treasury boosts refunding by nine billion to 112 billion US dollars okay so it's all about the US treasure treasury increasing the finances and that has been a positive boost for the market as you can see right there and then and I'd say that the probability that we're going to tag that resting iceberg is now increased significantly you know we've almost got a new scene of the crime which is just at this by iceberg here at 4199 4199 25 so we could you could actually take this line here or we could just draw a new line and we could essentially say that that is the line there and that is now the next line in the sand so they may come back down a little bit to get some fuel or they may go straight up there so we can talk about that for a second rather than me rattle on about poker it's interesting at this point for the first time in hours and if you look when this resting cell iceberg was first placed our little marker says it was at 259 so just coming into the London Open so the for the first time in five and a half hours they've moved it they haven't taken it off completely they've just pushed it much further up so this kind of action has obviously been or I'm not gonna say obviously has been potentially viewed as really bullish and it is news you know it is news of import you know if the Treasury is providing more money for the government to conduct its business etc or for whatever other purpose it's doing then that helps the market so it's not overly surprising that we're now going up into this liquidity zone here I just remove my I'm removing my poker table so now if you'd have that as a target for some kind of swing trade you know as soon as you get to the 411 mark you know if your only target was 4111 or 4211 then you have to be aware that your risk reward is changing rapidly at the closer you get to that target so that you know there's a lot of mathematics saying if if your target was only to reach that then if you see action that it's going to go away that there is absolutely no harm taking something close to it but you have to do that the maths and the operability yourself and you're the one who has your expected risk and reward so it is your calculation but there's also an argument here that as you see him with him that the size book that they've moved up once twice three times now you can see that once twice three times that you know it looks like there is potential to hold this trade on that significant news and just let it at least eat into this liquidity up at 4215 so we're now getting very very close to that resting cell iceberg tag and so that's as good as a tag even though it's not there anymore it's as good as a tag of what was a long-term resting iceberg and anything that is five hours plus is long term in my particular view so you've got this liquidity up here that they look like they're marching towards and some of these people could be these players we're talking about who aren't short-term intraday players but longer-term players and they've changed the picture as in at 830 so you know one of the things that you don't necessarily want to do is to fade them when they're marching towards something and remember also that we've got that poor high which has just now been taken out so if I drag that back remember this is the screenshot that I did was the chart that the screenshot was based on from the beginning of the art ETH session and you can see that's now just been taken out and I said in my screenshot this was a marker for later there is a high probability of that when you've got such a poor high as that it doesn't have to be taken out by much but normally it's taken out by a decent little chunk so that you don't end in a poor high as well but the first thing we've done is taken out that and we've had a bit of a pullback if you look over at the Delta tell this you know I keep saying you know don't ignore this column because I think it's better than the Delta bars I you can see I'm not bothering with the volume bars at the moment on my charts they just I don't find it as much clarity it gets in the way the heat map I prefer to see the volume horizontally both in the volume profile and the Delta and so the resting iceberg has gone so they've when they when they do take it away after such a length of time what it it can mean again I can't speak with any certainty on this because I'm not the person that put the iceberg there is that they have fulfilled whatever it is they wanted to achieve by putting it there in the first place so they may have had it as a target maybe they bought down here and they wanted to sell and take a big profit up here so maybe that's what they've already done and that's why they've they've now removed it we don't know we can we can put in educated guesses but we can't actually know for any certainty why it is that they've suddenly removed it after five hours 33 minutes at this point you know we will have another look as well at the resting liquidity up above because you know that's around number at 14 5 5 0 so that we ignore that one this one's an interesting one 47 in the order book at 14 5 2 5 so that's interesting why it may not be for now I the ETH you might well be for the RTH but it it becomes of real interest to us because the picture has become bullish since that since that Treasury news release Balian's got a question in the discord channel so I will have a look at that I've got a scroll down so I can read it on my own screens not in the way liquidity can be pulled added anytime and you said it well don't be consumed and focus on the current action how do you approach higher liquidity levels for example 4 to 40 liquidity of 650 was added around which is struggling because I've got my am I've got discord has put my own screen in the way so I can't reset was added around yesterday I'm guessing it says yesterday and stay through most of globe X and 500 pulled out today I think I partly answer that value I think my view on when you've had either a resting iceberg or resting liquidity that's been there for hours and hours and hours and then you've had some action where it's almost run right up to it it's often the case that either you know they've moved their positions or what they wanted they've already got so you know if they'd wanted to sell at that level they've already managed to sell that level so that particular game is over for them but it doesn't mean that it's no longer bullish you know you've got a lot of new players that came in at 830 and you know it's clearly is bullish at the moment in a yes at the moment though we've got this liquidity wall that we can see up above that we're approaching right now we're beginning to eat into but they've moved out of the way I think there's no interaction there so if we zoom right in on that one and we have to double click on that when we didn't interact with that so that was moved out the way this one looks like it's being moved out the way as well so maybe they want to be filled higher who knows yeah it is umbellion it is market generated information but the fact that you acknowledge that it can be moved anytime accepts it means that you accept what kind of market generated information it is right it is not the same as somebody you know buying 5,000 shares in here or 5,000 contracts in ES futures it is not the same as that so every bit of market generated information has to be treated for what it is and you can analyze you know based on previous occurrences of it well the type of information that it normally you know the actions that normally result from it but yeah they're treated differently yeah and yeah as we look at this NQ liquidity upper remember price does not move in a straight line and when you have violent moves they're often taken back so that you know if you get that kind of zigzag zig to get up to the 14525 you know don't be surprised after you had a violent move up that it has a violent move down before it continues to go up or you know may or maybe it's already achieved what it wants to again if we start predicting the future we've lost the trading game already it's the very very last thing that we want to do you know you know if we go back in time and we talk about that this resting liquidity up here or resting iceberg in ES at 4211 right we could not predict the future we did not know it was going to go there within our our long session but you know we could have had an educated guess and then based on the educated guess and based on our trading plan and our structural setups if it was viable that we got a multiple hour or at least one hour trade towards it you know with a viable target then you know it comes into play again we're not in that occasion we are not forecasting that it will hit it but we are taking a calculated gamble which is what a trade is that it may get there and that there is a reward for that over a series of trades to justify making that calculated gamble so this is a bit of a war so it's going to it's going to take a little bit of time to eat through this one if it is going to eat through it this is actually longer than I normally do these live order flow analysis for I think I've been doing this for about 30 minutes just on having a live book map here okay I mean we can keep watching I can keep talking about poker as well it's currently at 843 so we've got 17 minutes left today so we can keep watching this today so we've talked about willingness to accept stops or to basically fold in the case of poker and being more open about it then traders are especially traders on on discord channels tend it to be I also think that the the mathematics are easier in poker than they are in trading because there are more uncertainties in trading there are no definite probabilities of anything because every single trade is completely different so I may have a spring or an upthrust you know the type C supply demand that I I I like you know especially the ones into a wall of liquidity which can act as protection for my stop I like those but that does not mean that it has an exact probability every time in poker there are some hands which do have exact probabilities and you know there those probabilities change as the five individual cards in the middle of the room but the certainties are less I mean you still have the certainties are less in trading sorry the uncertainties are sorry the uncertainties are more in trading the certainties are more in poker let's get this one right but you still have a lot of similarities for example with the people around the table because you can't know what they're going to do and that is very much the case in trading you've also got to have rigorous discipline so you know if you if you've done the maths in poker and you worked out that there are certain hands that you should not play and I'm talking about the normal kinds of games not these high-states games for a million dollars at the world's here is about the the run-of-the-mill games that you'd have either online or at a local poker joint casino whatever it is watching this iceberg here in watching this iceberg in ES simply because of the value that's currently been traded there I think that's 300 it's sizable you know what we often see in RTH or this is almost RTH with these icebergs is that even though you know this one is looking quite bullish it will often chop through it you know go to the other side and you'll think oh no it's not held and it'll come back and it will hold so I find in RTH they don't tend to be exact levels but they're just an interest point for us because they show us where you know for example there may be an absorption of sellers in this zone so once we've just cleared this own properly it becomes very very bullish if they if we're clearing it to the upside so it's quite interesting in terms of where the iceberg was as well if I zoom out so you can see that the resting cell iceberg and now the active biosburg are at the exact same level of 4211 50 I seem to be a bit tongue-tied tonight so I apologize that shouldn't be considered a coincidence so when you see that and that it is likely it's the same player and you also get a feeling that when you do see that particular action of the cell iceberg turning into the biosburg that they bought heavily at today's lows and they're the ones that drove it down to get a price to buy to drive it up to take out the overnight high. Parlins I think you had another comment yeah I think the the real driver of this volatility wasn't the ADP employment change it was the news from Treasury at 830 if there was news that drove this but we did watch the ADP non-farm release and there was not a lot of volatility for 15 minutes after that and we have to see whether this now does give us any cause for for for hypothesis that this could be a trend day in RTH as well if it was to be a trend day in RTH and again I do not like forecasting the future there is one thing of note that it might be worth talking about here on the TPO chart might make it a little bit bigger certainly a little bit bigger vertically may vertically maybe I'll stretch it out as well right okay all these pink lines are virgin points of control or naked volume points of control and since maybe I go yep that's basically anyone's were interested since we had this big down move which we looked at on the daily we've left a few of these in place so right before the bounce this week and yeah right right when we got to the low we can count how many we had above us on this downswing so we had one two three four five six seven eight you can do some statistical analysis on these big down moves of how many they tend to leave I think I saw a couple of videos on this as well over the weekend but it's always better to do that kind of analysis yourself but suffice to say for this purpose they don't ordinarily leave that many so what is that suggesting you've got the David Weiss reverse trend line you've got a break and you've got these eight naked volume points of control so you had a few different statistical things that you could use in your edge to say that there might have been a bounce this week and then you have to say now how could you have played that because you know when you see the kind of chop and if you really want to see the chop go to the NQ in RTH yesterday that sometimes playing that you know if you're playing some of these tags in the futures market ain't necessarily the easiest thing to hold so you know if you are going to play for some of those I would always advocate either you know you take a simple thing which might be you know a simple buy in an ETF or you take an options play so you know you do something like a call spread you know just just keep it simple you know if that is not your main game you know if your main game is intraday you know small swings on futures there is no harm exploring whether you can do these kinds of additional trades that do not interfere with what you do on an intraday basis and that also you know say you're taking a call spread to go and tag one of these you know let's say say this one near the 200-day moving average up above I'm not by the way I'm not saying you'll get there at all I'm just saying that you know you could have bought a call spread there that is not good or that should not stop you taking a good short in the futures that you might have got after the London Open today you know you should consider them as completely separate trades that have their own statistical basis or you have your own trading plan about each of them may not even be the same trading plan or maybe a completely separate business that you run for the for slightly longer term you know different markets but you know it's something that from your futures you may get that kind of analysis to open up those avenues to go and do something different but yeah it shouldn't distract you from what you normally do in the futures market either yeah I think the only danger there when if I talk about that kind of thing is that you know then some people get confused they don't know whether they can go long and short at the same time and that's not what I'm saying I'm just saying there are ways to play going long and short different markets different timeframes and it's still to be okay you know still to have viable expectancy on both okay so what have we seen since this 425 by iceberg that's held this zone and the fact that it was the same as the sale resting iceberg that made it this a tighter level of support than it might otherwise have been considered and you know we're still you know we're taking out the previous overnight high and we're now up into the next band of liquidity so yeah and we're also watching up above in and Q again we're not expecting this to get in a straight line but that 15 sorry 14 525 is still in our minds so in other words you know if you got into a long my idea and this is actually going to conflict with some of what what I'm learning about poker is that you know I would scale out it's probably because the level of uncertainty as I said is higher in trading so I'd rather take my scales and accept you know that the trade didn't quite get to where I wanted to whereas in pokey you basically play for the lot how you the pile the pot so that is where I see them as quite different but you know one thing well one of the other things I did learn though is that you know where you have got a very very good hand you know poker players tend to pyramid into it by you know by substantially increasing the size of their bets on their round pyramiding into a trade in trading is a little bit harder but it can be one of the biggest things you can do to increase your bounce but it's not something I think I'll really get into in these webinars but it is something that is certainly worth everyone looking at and researching for themselves okay so some of the other things that are directly related well then one of them in poker to trading and one thing I've already said is that in poker players they do not play a hand unless it has has a reasonably good probability right and that is directly related to over trading so unless you're a scalper and the you basically taking a heck of a lot of trades you should be a little bit more selective about the trades that you take once again it's up to you to do the analysis of which of your trades has the best expectancy or probability I'm not going to delve too much into win rates of it all because I think that's a horrible thing to talk about in these in these webinars they're going to get people going on the wrong path but the biggest takeaway that I've got so far and again I'm at the very early stage of my learning is is on the stop side or or the fold side you know if you you build up in poker a lot of mental endurance which you need in trading from taking all those stops or taking all those foals it's something that really is a skill that is not spoken about much in trading that is something that will help your trading out occasionally I see people talk about it which is the non attachment or not being attached to individual trades that is something that is so so important I mean it's one of the reasons why I you know I take my small swings because you know I mean as long as they have the multiple expectancy and I have a chance to get those two or three or four hours etc I'm not going for a giant so I'm not going for a home run so it doesn't bother me if it does go all the way you know if my target was so that I would get my two or three are that's great but you know I find the more I go for these home runs the more attached I get get got to those trades and that's why I don't do that anymore tapas you've got a question far away it's like quite nice pullback in NQ we're going towards this little liquid liquid as the area down here if they're going to get there you know I think tapas yeah I agree with you on that one bit I think it's just one of those experiences well and I think it's directly because people sell these products indicators whatever they are on the basis of win rate so people are totally focused on that and focused on not losing and I very very rarely see people saying I'm selling you this indicator because it's got you know for the trades that it wins it has a two hour or three hour they're selling them as magic dark art and maybe that's one of the reasons why I don't sell anything so we've got this this buy resting iceberg in ES at 4211 15 I don't use these as targets they are often hit I just find that I'm I have a better statistical success rate both in terms of win and and are on the cell ones above so I don't trust these buy ones below as much I mean it's a great zone you know maybe we'll get a little spring blow bang and then it'll go up to 4 to 20 but I'm not I'm not not using it as a short to go and target to get to that level yeah it's good it's quite possible that you know if you're going to go into a really short time frame chart there or in into book mat there that you've got this little test of supply just here you've got this supply that comes in there and you could have got in there targeting that you know that that that's perfectly viable it's just something that I'm not going to talk about about something that I don't do so I would not be using that as my target even though we're about to hit it right this second there we go hit and now we can watch to see whether they grow it so is it 4 to 5 it's increased to 450 and they're holding it and then when they're holding it what are we doing we're zooming in horizontally to see this tail so we're looking both at the profile and the tail and if this was really reared would be you know would add more fuel to our thought that we're going to go up and hit 4 to 20 before 9 30 but who knows whether we will or not right I think I'm coming up to the end of my hour so only got a few seconds left I hope again that you know this was you useful I know I spent an awful lot of time doing live order flow analysis today rather than speaking about any particular education topic I did not read dissect the first 90 minutes of the London Open which I did trade today but you know we can always do and I'm hoping we will do a live London session soon so we can see that action there I prefer that action but this action here this 8 to 9 30 action is also good but we're back to tag this again so we're at 450 at the moment let's just see what happens here this time we're still holding it 453 465 and we couldn't hold it that's interesting so it doesn't mean we're not bullish just means that that has not helped the time being so what we're doing again then is watching to see where this goes and what the color of this Delta is and remember we have two scenes of a crime below and it would not surprise anyone if we went back to the scene of the crime from that Treasury news release at 8 30 okay I'm well have a really good session beware of that 10 a.m. in news the ISM etc 10 a.m. Eastern and and welcome to November everybody there should be lots of volatility this month and thank you very much for watching