 Folks look at the contraintrader. This is Robert Desmond. It is Sunday September the 5th 2011 folks. Let's just get straight to Let's get straight to the economic data that was set that was released last week and let's get straight to the Ugliness of it We have the ISM index. This wasn't talked about all that much because it was overshadowed by the the jobs numbers and rightly so But the ISM index is a measure of growth in the economy Now a measure below 50 signals contraction in the economy a measure above 50 signals expansion now The economists have expected 48.5. So we actually beat on the ISM number Which is which is probably why you didn't hear all that much about it But still this is a far cry from what it was only a couple of months ago Remember on June 31st two things ended one stimulus ended to QE to ended There's no more money left from stimulus and QE to is over That ended at June 31st, and I told my members week after week remember this is coming up and sure enough ever since May you had the Stock market just trade sideways and then eventually just collapsed and here we are today So There's your ISM number. You have your initial jobless claims, which still came in above 400,000 You remember a couple of weeks ago. It just came in at 399,000. That's gone now. That's been revised up that came during the debt debate you don't think that the Government numbers are rigged They are they came in at 398 399,000 thereabouts just to get it below that psychological support level of 400,000 where it hasn't been below in months Sure enough it's been revised up that number doesn't exist anymore There is no job growth in the United States Now what I find even more troubling is Is the fact that you have average hourly earnings declining 0.1% Yet your unit labor cost Rows 3.3% I wonder why why could that be? Could that be the cost of Obamacare? Slipping in to the economy slipping into the cost of doing business That's Sarbanes ox has been around for a number of years, but Dodd Frank which makes me sick to even say that that is reform those two thumbs The Dodd Frank financial reform bill or the law now not bill law Are these the expenses that are being dragged in government being dragged in to the expense of doing business? That's a huge question mark. I believe it is and it's certainly not being seen In average hourly earnings, what does that mean for the retailer? You don't want to be long the retailers when you have negative job growth. I mean negative earnings growth The average hourly workweek I tell my members every time this comes up. This is a critical critical number It's because as a businessman I have employees Before I want to bring on a new employee. I'm going to want to see whether or not I can Offer that individual overtime So I don't have to incur the cost of bringing on a new employee. I just want from overtime You're not seeing that it's held steady for the most part thirty four point three hours per week Now it's down thirty four point two What do you say to these numbers? There have been trillions of dollars spent on Trying to create jobs Yet we're losing them and our beloved president is going to go on TV once again with some sort of a program And all of this is going to be triangulation a lot Clinton or accepted Clinton with a true politician He knew what to compromise where this guy is He's just setting the stuff up the next election So he's going to make a he's going to attempt to make the republicans look bad Worse than the debate in Congress as bad as it already is You know what bring on the fight bring it on. We need we need a Definitive election in 2012. I do not like to see anyone party Hold the executive and both houses of Congress. It's not good Because absolute power corrupts absolutely the republicans did it when Bush had had Had the executive branch and Congress he screwed up so You can't have that You can't have that for long before these people get too corrupt and They just go off the path of why they were elected in the first place But you need that now you need a change you need all these 60s liberal Democrats and The 70s 80s modern republicans to get voted out of office. They have to go You need people that are from the small business arena to come in and to Fight for the taxpayer And when I mean fight for the taxpayer I'm gonna give you up for instance because you have a liberal Democratic president you have Over 4.2 billion dollars paid out to subsidies to illegal immigrants that's right 4.2 billion dollars paid out of subsidies you may be asking about how did this happen? I Could tell you how it happened Because the do-gooders In in Congress decided you know what anybody below x amount of dollars considered poverty level We'll take their taxes, but you know what at the end of the year We're gonna give them back a tax credit to wipe out what they owe up to a thousand dollars If people were receiving a check back for a thousand dollars. You want to know why people? Below fifty thousand dollars a year and four fifty thousand dollars a year love government programs They don't pay any taxes. They don't pay for it So the illegal immigrants got smart and they say you know what? They say I don't need a Social Security number to file taxes with the IRS all I need is a taxpayer ID and I could submit My tax return to the federal government with a taxpayer ID and They'll send you a check back for a thousand dollars. It began over five years ago In the past five years the number of illegal immigrants receiving $1,000 checks or up to $1,000 checks to be fair Has increased fourfold That's four point two billion dollars of your money your money that is going through illegal immigrants not to mention the drain on Services hospitals drain up police services Everything school services everything is going out to elite is going out to illegal immigrants Now the response from the IRS when they were questioned about this was you know what? It's not our job to check the residency requirements of people who file taxes This is bizarro world as long as you have this mentality in Congress You must stay short this market again. You must stay short this market Because it is completely out of control This market is heading lower. I've told my members this and I will tell you the same in the members commentary So please if you want to know how to trade this market, I beg of you. I beg of you, please Take advantage of a 14-day free trial offer sign up for the contrarian trader. You don't like it cancel it But please I don't day trade and I'm gonna walk you through a trade in the moment of what we did recently We had a great week last week We had a great week last week I'll walk you through that in a moment But remember these guys on Wall Street who put Obama into office? Who is that number who's Obama's number one contributor Wall Street? You're gonna trust them With your money. I don't think so They're the guys that got you into this trouble with this clown to begin with So let's go on to the trade that we did last week Actually, it took a couple weeks to do that. I don't day trade folks I listen unless I buy a position sky rockets up in the same day. I sell it I rarely day trade because I I Usually a sell in to strengthen the morning be buy it to close simple as that that's why I don't day trade I Like setups over it could take days It could take weeks could take months depends upon the setup. Let's walk through FRO. This is a weekly We were into this trade for the past month month and a half So let's walk through it. What attracted me to FRO frontline tankers F. R. Oh, what you're doing is you're looking at a weekly chart of FRO and I sent out a And a letter of my evening commentary to my subscribers and FRO has appeared on our Watchlist get ready to buy it get ready to get long because nobody else likes it It has at the time we opened up the position a 23 little over 23 percent short interest So almost a quarter of the shares were held short now look at how far extended this stock is From it's with 50 week moving average These shorts made a tremendous amount of money in this stock So we knew that that it was time to begin to add to position and that's what we did We saw the RSI at that time was below. It was about about 10 a little over that So we began to add to positions back here. We had this A Reversal almost a reversal get the bottoming tail here bad week a couple of weeks ago. We added more We added more throughout here short enough last week you had to spike up We made our profits. I took I sent the note out last week two members Get out of FRO Now unfortunately, and I need to be forthcoming. I didn't get out of my entire position So I'm still I still have a small position in FRO. We did take profits. I still have a small position in FRO I'm not all that worried about it. I'm probably gonna add more this week, but I don't like this topping tail here I couldn't I couldn't get out of my position fast enough But you have a topping tail here you probably see some sideways consolidation It was a love last week love last week was 610 expected to bounce around. I think it's fairly good support So I'll be sending out an alert to members listen if you didn't get out of your position last week. Don't worry We're gonna look to get back in this one again at a cheaper price Now granted I got I got out of most my position. I still have About a quarter of what I had I wish I could say I got rid of it all at the best price of the day I didn't I'm not gonna book crap yet, but I'm not worried about it because our main concern is this the Preservation of capital and our trades have a risk to reward that are in our favor This stock still remains in our favor. Do I like the fact that you have this topping tail here on the cut on it? On the candlestick. No, I don't I Don't like it in the least but we have fairly solid support here Earnings are in the rear of your mirror. That's done the Baltic dry sea index Which nobody's been really paying attention to except for me and my members The Baltic dry sea the Baltic dry sea index is a measure of the cost of shipping goods rates of Shippers it's been climbing upwards even during this decline in the markets that is That's a deviation. I love deviations And that's what we got along the front line. Everything was lining up perfectly This is a typical example of one of our trades now on a daily basis. When did we get into? Frontline maybe asked what what what triggered it? It's 30-minute charge. It's not a moment Here We look for key reversals. Look at all these key reversals. These were telling you here. Look it back here Frontline was telling you That you began to have in the beginning of August second week of August you began to have a Tug of war between the long and the short the only problem was is the market was falling apart And if the market was strong, I'm willing to bet that this would have been the bottom back here to 697 level when you have this key reversal But you didn't the market fell apart. So it fell down even lower. I said great. Give me more I'll keep buying it up. Which is what we did We bought it up and rallied and when I saw there's neutral action on I think what day this was I guess it's last Thursday Actually, it was last Wednesday last Wednesday. I saw this action and I said I sent out of the evening commentary to my to my members I said listen, I wish I would have gotten out today at the last hour of trade. I didn't I made a mistake Get out of FRO in the morning and sure enough You had your opportunity for a brief amount of time to get out capture profits I didn't get my whole trade executed I felt confident that I didn't want to I didn't want to panic and just dump everything at the market That's the worst thing to possibly do. I know my position. I know on a weekly basis still at the extreme oversold levels and I Actually had the opportunity to begin to build a new position. So I was playing with the house's money. No big deal And we're gonna look at the same thing again. So please you're gonna have a president of the United States who is Completely out of touch with the American public come on TV this week with new with new Job creation Reports plans whatever hell he wants to call you're gonna have a weak Republican response The economic data sucks You have illegal immigrants receiving a thousand dollar checks each year even the illegals find profit in filing taxes You know when that happens, you know what you got to be sure at the market. So please Sign up for the good trading trader if you have any questions, please. I don't want you to lose money Please send me an email ask me a question if you question whether or not you should join or not send me an email quiz me I'll answer your question. If it's during trading hours, you give me some time I have to reply to my members first. They take top priority, but you're important too So please send me an email if you have a question be more than happy to answer it I'll talk to you soon. Hope to hear from you. Have a great great trading week. Bye. Bye