 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network The Denver Nuggets your 2023 NBA champions with their win over the Miami Heat in game number five and Potentially another champion tonight in the NHL and another champion coming up on Sunday The u.s. Open and PGA is coming up It is at Los Angeles Country Club our job for today is to break down that event by talking to Brandon Ghadoula getting his favorite bets over at Fandall sportsbook to get you ready for it should be another fun event This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim sauna. So I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire Joined here as mentioned by Brandon Ghadoula check about on Twitter at Ghadoula 13 He is the senior managing editor of number fire calm Brandon the NBA finals have wrapped up No more Sims for you to run there But we gotten any more progress into convincing you to talk WNBA on the show instead Sometimes it's good to keep things more as hobbies than work So you have to do a little bit more more convincing there. I could not disagree more I have no hobbies that do not correlate to my work because I'm a boring human Just because I enjoy my work primarily that's the main driver there any final thoughts for you on the NBA finals based on What we saw across those five thrilling games Yeah, the nuggets are a very good team Miami I Don't know if Jimmy Butler just got worn out or what but he refused to shoot the ball in game five was very very frustrating I Know Jeff Van Gundy was talking about it during the broadcast put a lot of pressure on the role players to just sort of create shots I also kind of think that Miami's Offensive schemes just didn't really lead to a whole lot. So I mean congrats to the nuggets. They deserve to win You know it was fun to track Miami But it's one of the situations where sometimes the underdog story is fun to root for until it's not And then it's like maybe if we had like Boston or Philly or you know another team to give Denver a run That could have been cool, but you know, it is what it is and we're under next season Yeah, the Jimmy stuff was weird to the point where at the end of the game I was shocked when he did shoot like he made those back-to-back threes on those I pull I expect him to pass on both those because the way it had been going to that point again I'm not a huge NBA observer, but like it was definitely odd I can't blame him based on the burden He carried based on having an ankle sprain as well, but you know, yeah, it was fun to educate my wife on the Nikola yokich as a child pictures I think that made it all worth it showing her those showing her the taco bell commercial that ran when he was drafted Which maybe won a quesarito pretty badly But you know congrats the nuggets as you said and we'll see what happens next year too. It's also one of those like You can't you can't knock Jimmy because they wouldn't have been there without him and then it just goes back to like the The LeBron situation where people say how many losses he has in the finals and it's like and some realities Not making the NBA finals is better than losing in the NBA finals So I just right, you know Is it better to struggle in game five of the NBA finals or to observe from your couch as you've been sitting there for a Couple months without making the playoffs who can say not I not I we're gonna dive on into this US open Outline a course. We have not seen on the PGA tour before I guess or in a major Before outline what's know about that and Brandon's fair bets over at Vanduul sports book But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast If you want some thoughts on game five in the NHL for tonight, we did talk to Austin swing about that yesterday There's a time-stand for that in the episode over on Wherever you get your podcast the episode description will have a time-stand for that if you want to skip ahead to the NHL game five Discussion between the Panthers and the Golden Knights get that wherever you get your podcast also check us out over on the Fan dual YouTube page if you like what you hear leave us a thumbs up on YouTube or a five star rating on Apple Podcasts Or on Spotify. Are you looking to have a stake in the US open all weekend long? Well, Fandal has you covered with the PGA Eagle daily fantasy contest Which is now live test your knowledge of the PGA tour by putting together a six-person lineup While staying under the salary cap and using Fandal's live screen feature Follow along as you compete for a share of 350 thousand dollars with first place taking home a hundred K all for just a $9 entry fee whether it's household names like Scottie Schaeffler and Brooks Kepka or your favorite underdog They tee off on Thursday plenty of options fill out a lineup as you compete for first place Thursday will be here before you know It so submit your lineups on fandal today eligibility restrictions apply go to fandal.com or download the fandal app for more details Let's dig in now to the US open brand talking here first about the course It is at Los Angeles Country Club the first time it is hosted a PGA tour event It has been the host of a couple of three usga events. I don't know anything about those But maybe you do so what should we know about the course? Los Angeles CC based on yardage based on research you've done we can apply to this year's field Yeah, so the one you'll probably hear cited a decent amount is the 2017 Walker cup which is It's it's the US versus Great Britain in Ireland if I'm not mistaken. Yeah team Great Britain in Ireland and The only relevant players who are in the field and but I mean relevant. I just mean like the only players in the field who actually played there were column or a cow and The favorite Scottie Schaeffler, which I think might be I don't think we need more reasons to like Scottie Schaeffler But the fact that you know he has that I guess six years ago. He played here in a team We're from Athens Patrick last year at the US open. Yeah, it's it's one of those situations But yeah, we're not working with a whole lot of like Tangible knowledge about LACC. We know it's a long par 70 So scores are gonna be high or low or I view it as high I think most people do but point being it's gonna play tough Relative to par which is typical for a US open The past three winners of US opens have all been six under par and I think was 13 under When I was at Pebble Beach and maybe one under but yeah, it's you know, it's gonna be tough True birdies are gonna be hard to hard to find so all that's really gonna do is Change the the amount of fantasy points we get for our DFS lineups. It's all the same for for all the golfers This course starts out with basically two par four and a half So it's gonna be a squarble par five. So if you guys are starting off on on the first You're gonna want to see a birdie there, but they might give it right back On the second and I think that's just kind of the way this course might play It's it's some gettable holes, but a lot of You know a lot of ways to get into some sort of trouble. I mean, it looks like a really cool golf course There's undulating fairways, which is always intriguing So placement off the tee probably gonna matter But it also might be one of those where if you put it three yards left or right of the target that you're aiming for Could be in trouble that could frustrate some golfers. That's also something that specifically at US opens. I Think we need to keep in mind is that some of these guys might get a little bit flustered with the setup So maybe you know if that's the kind of narratives that you like to play go for it But the obvious the two obvious names there Being John Rahm and Tiro Hatton both in really good shape this week So I'm not gonna play that angle because I like both for this week But if you go up with a hole-by-hole breakdown of the course based on the scorecard It's up on the the US Open website and compare each hole to the average of the same par We're getting 10 of 18 holes that are at least 10 percent longer than the average hole of that that same par so You can look at overall distance always. That's like the easiest thing to do But 10 holes are like noticeably longer Than you know a usual par 4 par 5 like that kind of thing and There's some long long par 3s two of them are over 280 yards six par 4 is at least 480 There's a par 5 that can play like 625. So It's gonna be I mean and I have us all up in an article on number fire If you want to check it out kind of get some context, but you know, I'm seeing some conflicting reports or You know analysis on how important driving distance is going to be at this setup I think it's gonna matter because it's just the amount of holes where it where it's you know gonna play long Accuracy I think it's gonna matter, but yeah, it's it's kind of wide open So you don't have to be super precise, but I think that if you're if you're really short off the tee You're gonna have a hard time. So, you know, it's a lot of guesswork a lot of flyovers There's a lot of good content out there on the course golf digest has a good overview the US Open website itself has some like Virtual flyovers of everything. So you can really get a feel for how this thing is gonna play And I think the one thing that we need to factor in here is There's a lot of those dry riverbeds It's gonna be, you know, it's gonna be tough whenever you miss in the wrong spots And I think that it might just be you know, the guys who don't have those one or two blow-up holes that ultimately emerged But that's kind of what we're looking at this week Now you discussed how there are multiple ways to view distance given that placement should matter But also they're really long holes and that introduced more variance into the discussion So I want to ask you like a from a process perspective Do you tend to play things differently when there are unknowns like we have for this week? Like are you Less willing to make bets than you typically would be because there's more variance there I need a bigger edge versus the market. How do you kind of handle things in situations like this? Yeah, so, I mean a small part of my process is factoring in estimated course fit To, you know alter what stroke scan inputs I'm putting in to my model before running it So obviously harder to do that this week because we don't know What actually has mattered here statistically and that's how I view things rather than just you know Assumptions this week we have to make those assumptions or we just run it without any assumptions at all And I tried my best to to have some assumptions, but sort of on the low end So not not any big big swings here because I do think that All types of players can play well here in theory I just think that the bigger hitters are gonna have more of an advantage, which is almost always the case anyway But you know typically when we get a first-time course I am a little more timid to dive in but if anyone's ever listened to the show They know that I'm a little more conservative You know that then then some others might be that being said We know us opens are tough. We know that they're long. We know that they rotate courses We know that it majors the best players tend to separate so it's not like I'm treating it just like hey There's this new course kind of a weak field on the PGA tour don't really know what to expect So I'm a little bit more, you know I'm a little bit above that level of like skepticism in the way that I'm viewing things and again Specifically, I feel like it us opens because of how tough they are The best rise to the top the past winners at us opens math. It's Patrick great. You know, we know he's a great player World, I agree, right? Yeah, if anyone's yeah, not watching Jim's wearing a nice northwestern hat, which he claims Patrick So if it's Patrick John Rom Bryson to Shambo Gary Woodland Bruce Keppke twice Dustin Johnson Jordan speeds the past US Open winners And the name that might jump out there is Gary Woodland But entering he had a 50-round moving average according to data golf of about 1.3 strokes gained per round adjusted for field strength For context this year. That's like Justin Thomas or Cam Young two guys who Would not shock like truly shocking or they golfing their best. No, but again, it's it's us open I think it's pretty clear that Overall game is going to separate more than trying to nail the right proximity Ranges for this week. So that's basically how I've been working with things For about probably like two years now not trying to get too too detailed with the stats I'm looking at so I feel pretty good all things considered for this week. So you want guys in great overall form I think the headline are there a Scotty Schaeffler. It's pretty obvious He's seven to one to win a Fandall sportsbook and he is there despite the fact his putting has been iffy So does that? Prevent Schaeffler from being a value for you at seven to one. What's your view of the rest of the favorites at Fandall sportsbook right now? So the way that my model works is I just take round-by-round scoring and do some adjustments from there for field strength Recency whatever else That goes in there so it doesn't necessarily factor out putting it doesn't necessarily bump guys up for better t-degree and our ball striking numbers Anything like that because I like to take Samples for multiple tours and we just don't have the reliable data from from other tours. So again, I don't factor out putting So for Schaeffler all of his putting We'll call them woes are factored in but in theory. I'm using a Long enough sample where things smooth out Long term now. I've also done some research on putting and the reason that I feel pretty good about not trying to make a more t-degree based model is that we can actually You know first of all putting stats. They're not random and they will stabilize over time. So By using a large sample kind of just you know compensates for for the fact that putting does sort of ebb and flow But we also can look specifically at more or less putting from within 15 feet That's the most predictive range if you had to pick one range it'd be like five to ten feet It's a good sample of putts that are makeable and they separate out the best golfers But if you look at putting stats from within 15 feet Schaeffler is a 24th percentile this season from within 15 feet That is The main concern that being said it's not like he's dreadful and could never make a putt We know that that's not how putting works and especially with Schaeffler He can definitely look like he's never gonna miss similar like a Brooks Capcom in major It feels like he's never missing an 8-footer, but you know if he does put well he can win this thing by multiple shots That's how good the t-degree game is But mathematically speaking whenever you like simulate stuff out if you use individual player I Deviations he it's a low standard deviation because he's so consistent with the t-degree game But the putting has not really spiked in a positive sense has it I mean it's been kind of down very recently But it's not like he's losing Ten shots putting every single round tried at the memorial. He tried he tried but that's like an outlier Yeah, so he has a really high floor and so just mathematically John Rom for example as a more volatile player Than Scotty Schaeffler All of that being said I have his win odds his expected win odds at plus 720 So when he was plus 750, I thought he was fine Frankly, I'm not gonna fight anyone who wants to bet him at plus 700. That's again You can rerun the simulations over 10,000 times and he might be plus 700 exactly whatever So for me Schaeffler is fine His t-degree game is so dominant right now that all he has to do is putt. Okay And he realistically could win and if he hits a few long putts This could be Scotty Schaeffler's major to lose And if you have like a boost offered to you on someone in the field Schaeffler seems like the prime candidate because the difference between like seven to one and Nine to one if it's like a plus 200 boost like that's a big difference in implied odds So yeah, and he'd be the first guy I would think about there too and Seven to one is looking like a light a nice number two I would just say that much compared to some other You know, not surprised, you know, not surprised by any means So Schaeffler not quite a value by your numbers Is there anybody who is a value any outrides you like for this week at Fandle right now? Yeah, I like two guys. Um John Rom at 11 to 1 and xander schoff lay At 19 to 1. I'm sorry, but no one can really build a case against xander that I will hear and just You know often analysis around major time is Well, I don't like the guys who haven't won a major. It's like, oh, how do you win a major? It like it's not like only people who've won a major can win a major. It's just not how it works So I always find that I'm a bit funny but with rom like It's starting to feel a bit a bit forgotten based on how good Schaeffler has been Um Rom is not very far removed from winning every tournament he played in so like it's just kind of crazy Where he is now he's a great putter overall But he's second in the field in strokes game ball striking over the past 50 rounds according to data golf If you remove the small samples for the live tour guys right now That being said, he is like nearly a full shot worse in ball striking with your strokes game off the tee and strokes game approach the end scottie schaeffler so Again schaeffler is like that good right now with his driver and his irons, which is why he's deservedly the favorite but um rom is Second in that department and he has great underlying putting stats. He's a 70th percentile Putter from within 15 feet I don't really know how you make a case against john rom other than the fact that he's not scottie schaeffler, but it's a You know long term their strokes game numbers are almost identical and i'm getting a much better number on john rom It's put together packaged a little bit differently because rom's a little bit worse With the ball striking And a lot better with the putter, but I mean I'll take the I'll take it It's different routes to the same destination basically with yeah And it's like would it surprise anyone if john rom had a better tee a green week than scottie schaeffler? No, like and and honestly like the thing with my model is It basically just says here's how good guys have been I make some adjustments for What how the course might play that week and then it says here's where guys probably should be And it's a reminder that john rom is not an afterthought Yeah, and i'm not saying he's an afterthought because he's you know second on the odd Like I get i'm not i'm not trying to make it sound like he's 50 to one But they're very similar and I'd rather just take the better number on john rom Let's talk about zander now zander schaeffler as you mentioned 19 to one of fanguel that number is shortened throughout the week Where is the point where you back off? Um, because it spends pretty steady 19 to 1. I think that it's held there And it probably will be there when people listen to this show, but um, how much more value is there to squeeze out of schaeffler at his current number? Um, so I have him specifically Let's see here I have him at 17 to 1 Okay, so there's still a decent amount of wiggle room there on schaeffler to still be a value Um, yeah, what puts him up there for you? Is it just like the overall form being sick? That kind of puts schaeffler in play for you So yeah, I mean a lot of it has to do with I just you know, again, I don't always just agree with the model Um, but the model is here to tell me who's good at golf And how often they should win this particular tournament against this particular field And then I just go from there and make my own decisions, but zander Five straight top 18s at majors Six straight top 25s in his stroke play events entering And he's a top five iron player in the field over the past 50 rounds according to data golf, which is one of the things that Has always kind of had zander A step below the superstars was the iron play now He's really really up there and it just is going to be a matter of when he puts it all together In the same week, um, you know, we get the the california narrative. Although I will say um, just kind of a Small caveat to that, uh california narrative a lot of the california courses are poa greens this week. It's bent grass just something to throw in there but I would be willing to hear any arguments against zander other than the fact that he shrinks in the moment because I don't think that's the case I think he just has had a lot of bad variants on his end Um, and you know he won a gold medal. You can't say he shrinks I think he's a really I mean Eventually it's going to go his way. Yeah I agree if you put yourself in top 15 top 20 contention All it's going to take is a few more putts one more break go in your way And I don't I don't think people realize sometimes How much that impacts who wins a golf tournament, right? So the outright sprinting likes here john rom 11 to one zander shawflate 19 to one You said it's not only a week for for long shots Anyone you like there or fully avoiding those it's sticking with rom and zander There so i'm gonna go with basically heavy at rom and zander. Yeah, uh, and then the other markets But three other names showing fair value That I think are noteworthy Tony finaut 37 Jason day at 50 And then our guy windham clark 85 to one big hitter great game right now I'm fine with with clark at at a top 10 Um, which we'll get into here in a second, but those three names I think are worth monitoring and I will I'll be fine to put some partial units on those but If I was really telling anyone anything i'm focused on rom and zander this week, I think I usually wait till I talk to you to place bets outside of three balls because I just Take whatever data golf says there's a value there. Uh, I did make two like gut bets this week One is windham to win The other one, I don't know if I wanted to disclose to you. I'm a little bit ashamed about it, but you know Is it to win? Yeah, I mean I did slack you about this person so you can guess it but Uh, sheffler just moved to plus 650. Yeah. Well the last wasn't a value to seven to one anyway If you look at the screen, you can see who I uh am referencing, but it's mito perrera Oh, jeez. I mean, I see I know for it, but I know can you though? Are you just making me feel better about myself? I mean great. This is a this is a do as I say not as I do situation. I should be clear about that I'm not recommending windham and mito, but you this is this is one of those things though If mito closed out the pga Everyone would view him differently in majors That one whole changes like oh, he'd be a major champion and like to a lot of you will be after sunday yeah but I I just think that um We sometimes we need to be a little bit more A little fairer in the first time I think we're I don't think it would be shocking if we got a first time winner first time major winner this week Due to the course, but yeah, I mean between windham and mito. There's like 60 odds that happens So, you know, I agree. Um, what about the non outrides? Anything stand out to you there? Well, windham clark is I mean, you know if people are listening in um Maybe his top 10 odds have shortened drastically, but he was plus 700 to top 10. Oh Um, which is a really good number on fandall sportsbook. Oh brooks just shortened. There you go Someone with herd brooks, so But again clark is phenomenal right now He is 13th in the field this this field, which is you know, a major field In true strokes gained over the past 50 rounds according to data golf. He is 16th in distance 35th and putting he's really one of the best golfers In the field sort of in the world right now Um, and it's a really really good Numbers like good numbers for him, you know in any market whether that's outright, which I love the optimism. Uh top 10 though still really good. I have them around plus five 50 to top 10 this week and then basically just some uh I love majors because we always get the The props and we get the the nationality props. I just love those because they're such natural groups and I hate trying to go from like Here's the groups of like four to six names And then I'm like putting them in my spreadsheet and I'm like who all right who's in this This one it's so much easier and so much more fun. Um, but top englishman Tiro hatton plus 280 I love Tiro hatton right now um I think we're getting a little bit of Past winner See to see scroll it's a way at the bottom. I don't know if it's a better order I couldn't figure it out, but I got there eventually. Um I think math fits patrick in this market. It's a little bit over value due to having won last year I do fear justin rose a bit or we're on team rose right now Um, we've been we've been all over team rose, but I don't think either of us have anything bad to say about Tiro hatton Really has no shortcomings in uh his profile. He's a plus in all four Stroke's game category is just so good right now across the board. I'm seeing value Uh in this market just below that I believe it should be. Um, thank you for the guidance Top swede, uh, vincent norman plus 200 uh big hitter sort of a I don't want to be dismissive but kind of a A head-to-head again against alex noran who I don't think is a great course fit necessarily Unless short game is really what ultimately matters here. Um And then last one I think is at the very bottom top lefty Oh Yeah Not a nationality, but brian harman Uh, he is the favorite at minus 120 He's just versus phil miclison and hank lebiota We like hank uh plenty, but brian harman's a really good golfer. Uh my model show and value on brian harman in that market Pretty clearly. So I feel good with uh with those ones and harman is a guy who Can gain strokes off the tee despite not being long and I think that's Typically pretty valuable especially for an event like this where it may be long But he can place it well and stuff like that. So I think that you know Archetype might not be there, but he's overcome that everywhere else. So I think that makes sense, right? Yeah, and I don't know if the archetype's necessarily there for phil, yeah Although I've been we something we didn't talk about with the whole Golf news is that it's happening right before the u.s. Open. Yeah, and that's the one phil needs. So I think phil's been a feeling himself. So the confidence will not be low We can say that based on his twitter activity. I feel like he's feeling himself quite a bit So, you know, there's that at least okay So the non-outrights branded likes windham clark top 10 7 to 1 Tiro hatton top englishman plus 280 vince norman top suite at 2 to 1 And then at the top lefty brian harman add minus 120 any final thoughts branded for a close-up shop and send off Everyone to fill out their bed slips for this week uh You know, it's a major a lot of a lot of good names Um At the top if you have a if you have a strong suspicion if you like what you're seeing from certain golfers You know, I I really can't talk you out of almost anyone at the top of the board, but I know it's fun To bet the long shots. I'm sure people tune it in or just trying to get some Some extra action because it's a major Uh, just look at who wins majors and and try to protect yourself a little bit I don't want to talk anyone out of like hitting a long shot But I think this week especially is going to be There's so many guys in good form right now that Yeah, for one of the long shots that flow to the top. I would be astonished. So It's touch the top when there's a list of scottie cheffler john rom windham clark meet to perera It's tough to top all four of those guys. So I get why you're wary of the long shots. Yeah I haven't uh Haven't seen if uh field. Oh wait here it is big guns versus the field Okay, brooks john rom Rory and cheffler plus 235 versus the field Okay I'd rather just bet me too outright Again, this is not on brandon. This is on me and this is not a recommendation This is me being dumb and I want to be fully transparent about that So do as I say not as I do check out brandon on twitter I could do a 13 as he mentioned all of the simulations are up over on number fire dot com He went through the course data there as well find that over at number fire dot com find his work there And we'll also talk about uh the dfs side of things over on the fandal youtube page new eastern on tuesday And then up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed after that brandon Thank you for swinging by for today as always and i'll talk to you again in less than one hour Sounds good looking forward to talking more golf. Alrighty fine brandon twitter. I could do a 13 I am on twitter at jim sonnis want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to you with your bets for the us open and for game five between Vegas and florida. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network