 Welcome to Looking to the East. My name is Steven Zercher. I'm the host of this show. This show, we're going to be looking at the Olympics, which, as most of you know, is being hosted by Japan this year with a one-year delay from 2020. We're going to talk about the history of the Olympics a little bit and how it's progressed over the last few years, and some of the challenges now that the Olympic Committee's, both the International and Japanese, local Olympic Committee are facing in trying to host this in July of this year due to the various challenges mostly focusing on the pandemic. So we're very fortunate to have a wonderful guest and someone with a long history with the Olympics, Mr. Roy Tomizawa, who is dialing in to this Zoom meeting from Tokyo. As you can see in his background there, which I assume Roy is is your office. There's a lot of Olympic memorabilia there showing your focus and the attention on the Olympics over the years. Can you give us a brief background? How did you get interested in the Olympics and what have you been doing regarding the Olympics over the years? Well, welcome to my home here in Tokyo. Good morning, everybody. I'm a former journalist as my father was a former journalist. My father actually was at the 1964 Tokyo Olympics with NBC News. And so he brought back a whole bunch of stuff from those games and I guess I've been hooked on on the Olympics since, but I'm also a huge sports fan. And so just always been curious about the games and very happy for them to have come to Tokyo again. But my career started in America. I was a journalist in Philadelphia and then have moved around the world, including Singapore, Thailand and close to 20 years here in Japan. Wow. And you focused on the 1964 Olympics and some of your writing activity. Can you talk about that a little bit? Yeah, I think when I came back, I had was living in Singapore and moved to back to Japan in 2014. And of course, I had learned that Tokyo had won the right to host in 2020. And so I went to the local English bookstore, which is Kinokinia and Shinjuku, and was shocked to see that there was nothing written about the 1964 Tokyo Olympics because, Stephen, as you may know, the Tokyo Olympics were considered quite a seminal moment in Japanese history coming out of the party for Japan. And only 19 years after the end of the war. And Japan was bombed out and defeated. But to come back 19 years later to host, arguably, one of the most logistically complex sporting events in the world, it was amazing. And I thought, wow, there must be plenty of books on it. I want to read up on it and nothing in English. So as I was a former journalist, I had written a couple of books while I was living in Thailand and knew how to put together a book. And I thought I'll research it and write it myself. And so that's that's how it started. And then from late 2014, the research began. And then the interviews began in 2015. And I had you were interviewing people who participated or helped to manage the 64 Olympics. Yeah, primarily people who were in the 64 Tokyo Olympics, so over 70 Olympians from about 15 different countries. And so the bulk of the book that I've written on the Tokyo Olympics there are from anecdotes from a lot of those athletes. So real stories, real reactions and. And just very proud to have met these these great people. I would imagine, given the great success of the 1964 Olympics, that everyone you interviewed was proud to be a part of it. I would suspect that that would be the predominant feeling, that it was a wonderful experience for everyone. And the people who organized it must have been very proud on how it was managed and how successful it was. And to the benefit of Japan, because you're right, back in 1964. I think most people worldwide was still thinking about the defeated nation of Japan. Yes, and you can imagine these 18 year old to 25 year olds from Australia, America, Canada, Britain had parents and aunts and uncles who remember World War Two with with bitter, bitter memories. And the youngsters that came over probably were not as burdened by that luggage, but they they understood that, you know, all they knew about Japan was what they heard from their parents or family and saw in the books. And it was always probably negative. And of course, Japan at that time, the economy was recovering. But, you know, things were coming out of Japan were considered cheap and shoddy. At least that was a perception. Of course, it was actually changing at that time because, you know, when the athletes arrived and the things that they bought, they were just they were just overwhelmed by the the cameras, the movie cameras, the the calculators, not the calculators, but the watches, those type of things that they bought were high, high quality, high value. Right. And was it the same year that the Shinkansen started, too? It was in 1964. Shinkansen opened on October 1st, nine days before the opening day of the Olympics. The monorail from to to Haneda opened up the month before the highways that crisscrossed Tokyo were basically built that year or the previous year. So Tokyo has transformed. I was transformed. Yeah, the Shinkansen is still so far ahead of anything we have in the United States when it comes to train transportation, even though it was built in 1964. It takes forever to go from New York to Washington, DC. All right. So I think it's important to talk about this because it kind of sets the context for people who are old enough to remember the 64 Olympics. And the fact that Japan in bidding for this also wanted to make a statement. Initially, it was about recovery from the Fukushima disaster and Tohoku earthquake and so forth. So let's talk about the Olympics now, then. So you started getting involved in 2014. So can you talk about how the Olympics has progressed and how the Japanese government has managed it, maybe up until this point? And then we'll talk a little bit more later about what Japan and we all in this country are facing with the Olympics for 2021. But kind of give me your brief summary of what you've observed over the last five or six years. To be honest, I think pre-COVID, everything was going to plan. I mean, it wasn't going to be a coming out party for Japan. It was going to be a we're a mature economy, but we're a great destination. Basically, it was the 1992 Barcelona plan, game plan, which is, you know, tourism is important, service industry is really important. Overseas investment is really important. And so come to Japan. And as you are very well aware, pre-COVID, the incoming tourism numbers were just were booming, absolutely booming. I think the original target for incoming tourists annually for Japan was was 20 million by 2020, and they blew by that in like 2017. And then it was over 30 million before the pandemic. Right. Then they target 30 million, then they target 40 million before the pandemic discovered Japan. Yeah. And so basically what the plan would be is let's leverage that. Let's let's accelerate that. And then Tokyo 2020 would have done that as Barcelona's Olympics did for Spain's tourism industry. So, you know, things are going to plan. And and what we saw when the tickets were first offered, the first a number of volunteers were through the roof, the amount that Densu raised as for for sponsorships was through the roof well over three billion dollars. And the number of tickets bought in the Japanese lottery were through the roof. Tickets were selling extremely well overseas. This was going to be the most popular Olympics ever. Wow. Yeah, my wife, I can remember now. My wife tried everybody I knew in Japan was trying to buy tickets. And you had like, I don't know, was it 30 to one chance? It was unbelievable how oversubscribed the ticket selling process was when they opened that up, that would be what in 2019 or so I would imagine. I can't remember. Yeah, it was remarkable. So so leading up to the pandemic, things were moving forward. And it wasn't until, I guess, last year in February when the pandemic hit. So as I recall, Roy, and see if you agree with me, at the government's response to that was a little bit to try and maintain that things were OK. And Japan would would host the Olympics, even though February, March, April, May, the numbers worldwide began to really explode in terms of people being infected. And Japan at that time was still relatively moderate. The numbers were low, although certainly COVID was a significant factor here in Japan as well. So let's talk about that kind of like the pre-cancellation period. Well, you know, it was it was a it was a weird time. When the Olympics were canceled, I believe it was March. I'm not canceled. They were postponed because Canada and Australia, the athletes themselves said it's too unsafe. There's too much uncertainty. I remember walking around very crowded streets of Tokyo, you know, without masks. And so it felt very strange. We had the nightmare of Diamond Princess in off the at the Yokohama. But that that was, you know, it came and went. The Japanese government's reaction was probably the same as any other government that was hosting such a huge event with so much some costs that they basically are saying, let's let's just wait and see how this turns out. Because there's no need to make a snap decision on anything assuming the postponement would actually take place. So they figure they had a year over a year and a half to make a solid decision on whether to cancel. So, you know, why should they say anything like, you know, forget it? Let's just throw in the towel and cancel it. So, of course, they would and the IOC would definitely encourage that because if IOC had directly billions of dollars at stake on on on television rights revenue. So, you know, basically as probably if it were in any other country, it would be let's let's let's take it easy, guys, and let's wait and see. And so that's what they're doing. You know, there's still talk today, you know, should we cancel the Olympics? Yeah, that's what I want to lead this discussion to is where we are today, the New York Times article that I talked with you before we came on air. That was what I'd be thinking about this and contacting you, by the way, for our audience, I was the vice president of the Consai region, the ACCJ for a number of years, American Chamber of Commerce, which is the largest business chamber in Japan, the most influential one. And Roy is co-chair for the Sports and Olympic Committee. So and I've I've seen his name on many, many different sports activity, sports events, so that's why I contacted him. So regarding the cost, the New York Times quoted $15 billion so far that's been spent. Is that accurate as far as you know? Is that number? Is it hard to say? Yeah, it's really hard to say because it's probably unclear as to what is considered government expense related to the Olympics, right? But it's no doubt very high. So the numbers, I don't know. I've seen I've seen numbers for Sochi being 50 billion. You know, look, whatever it is, it's high. And I think the question is, short term, does it feel like a a donk-yotish type of exercise? And I guess you could say that. The question is, you know, is there or any longer lasting impact, economic impact? And there probably is. But, you know, I think I think Andrew Zimbalist and Economist has done a lot of work on this and has shown time and time again that most that can most Olympics don't really pay themselves back in the short term. That it's very hard to just show an I'm sure the 64 Tokyo Olympics probably did because it was a booming economy at the time. Ninety two bars alone, Olympics, of course, Los Angeles Olympics, because they didn't use any government money. But it's few and far between. And there are too many ugly examples of empty stadiums or rotting venues that make people believe that it's a waste of money. But I would argue it's not necessarily so. Yeah, I don't. Other than now, with this delay and the increased expenses, at least I didn't pick that up in the general press that I read that. Like you said, leading up to the Olympics, the Japanese people were full on boards. I mean, you couldn't buy tickets. So that issue didn't come up. And now it's coming up a little bit because of the delay and still the question as to whether or not it will occur. So let's talk about that. Let's bring us up to the present day. And some of the things I noted here are that the Japanese public, again, this is going back to the New York Times article. I've seen numbers all over the place, but generally. The numbers quoted are somewhere 60 to 80 percent of them do not think the Olympics should occur because of primarily public safety issues. Yeah. So that is still a concern. So there is it seems to be in the Times article kind of pointed out to this that the government is pushing this forward, even though the general public would probably accept further delay, if not a cancellation. I think I mean, fair and characterizing. Yeah, read the situation the same way, Roy. Yeah, I think I think that's probably true for most Olympics that happen. There's there's a negative or you can paint the picture of negative public sentiment before every Olympics. I think this one is exaggerated, not exaggerated. This one is is bigger because of the Japanese reaction towards the COVID virus, very being very sensitive to it. But yeah, one thing that was in the news just recently is that the local government here, where I live in Kansai, has stopped the torch relay. Right. I don't know if they've actually done it or not, because no, they they they basically redirect it so they're not allowed to go through the streets of downtown Osaka anymore. So they'll probably continue. It's just in a less populated area. Yeah, I mean, part of it is the the governor making a call to sort of say, you know, public sentiment is so negative. Let's write and you know, the you know, the infection rates are spiking. Yeah, that's another thing, too, Roy, is it unfortunately, although historically, Japan's infection rate when you compare it certainly to the United States is low. It does seem to be going up. So the area that I'm in right now is in a modified state of emergency. Tokyo numbers are still quite high. So the backdrop for this concern, this public safety concern, is that covid rates, at least on the Japanese standard, not compared to other countries, but at least on the Japanese standard still seem to be significantly high. You know, you've got this you've got this weird environment going on where you go to movie theaters and people are sitting next to each other packed in watching movies, you've got 10,000 people in the stands in exhibition baseball games, you've got, you know, you you you have events taking place and they will continue to happen. The to me, what's what's strange is how slow the vaccination process is compared to countries, you would think that, you know, if you're if you're that concerned about it, of course, you should be then you should be creating a safer environment by speeding up the vaccination process. But yeah, Roy, that's that's worthy of an entire show in itself. I'm my my my colleague from the University of Hawaii and teaching with him. He's coming into Japan, April, he's already been vaccinated. Yeah, most of my family, my son's been vaccinated. And he and he he, you know, he's 31, right? Yeah. So that's also kind of sets the context, the majority, I don't know what the number is, but I would say 97 percent of us in Japan have not been vaccinated. Maybe it's even higher. So if Japan had been more proactive about that and 50 percent of the Japanese were vaccinated and felt a little bit more penguin about the risk of being infected, then I think the public sentiment wouldn't be so strong. But unfortunately, Japan for for reasons that I can't clearly understand has been very slow. So that creates this environment. So given that, Roy, I've just made you the head. You've now become the president of the Japanese Olympic Committee. You'll be the third one now, right? After Mori and then then we have forgotten her namesake. All that returns to president. What would you do? I mean, what what call would you make on this? What would be your recommendation given? Well, I think I think the call is being made itself. So the Olympics are going to happen because the political will with between the IOC and the Sports Federations and the NOCs and the Japanese government is so strong, it's going to happen. So I would have no choice but to sort of go ahead with the plan to push forward, right? You could delay. Yeah, unless, of course, infection rates just totally go wild. And and and people and athletes start saying I ain't going, right? So so that's athletes haven't said that at all. They've been very quiet, haven't they? So far they're they're they're going. They were they're they're intending to go. So yeah, right now they're in they're in go mode, right? So they're all they're all thinking like they're. So the question then is how do you do have no fans in the stands? Right now, there are indications that they're definitely going to be fans in the stands. Let's let's clarify that. So some of our listeners probably read that the Japanese Olympic Committee decided not to allow international spectators. Yeah, and and people coming from outside Japan to watch the Olympics, but as is right pointed, as you pointed out earlier, the demand to see the various events in the Olympics and the domestic side is still strong. So basically, there were nine million total tickets of all events across the Olympics, about approximately nine million tickets. And then there were about four point four million sold in the Japan lottery. And then another six hundred thousand sold overseas. Now you you figure I think there were a certain twenty five percent of the tickets in Japan. People decided to refund after the announcement of the postponement. And then six hundred thousand seats overseas are probably all gone. So basically right now of the tickets sold, there are about three point three million tickets that are considered live like and those include my tickets, which I bought in America. But because I live in Japan, I'm allowed to use them. I'm pretty sure that's one third. So you figure probably opening ceremonies, those type of events are fifty percent capacity and everything else is like twenty to thirty percent capacity. And and I don't think they're going to sell too many more tickets because they've already got thirty three percent tickets accounted for. So I don't think it's a decision I make. The only decision I would have to make is whether to cancel all tickets or to allow a certain number of tickets. And right now we're at thirty three percent. Yeah, that's a kind of an alignment with the professional baseball started here last week, so different stadiums are allowing different percentages. But probably a third is maybe the average of what the professional baseball leagues, football as well as baseball are allowing into the stadium, some are ten percent, some are more. Yeah, what I'm worried about is that they require a vaccinated person to enter the stadium and mine's not scheduled till August. Roy, my plan, I'm hoping to go to Hawaii in July. I can probably I'll get vaccinated there before I'm going to be vaccinated here in Japan. It's going to be quite a while. I think before I'm on my well, I hope I hope you get vaccinated soon. Thank you. We have one question from the audience here and it may be a little bit dated here because we did talk about the restriction on international tourism for the Olympics, but the question is, why can't we hold the Olympics in 2021 without an audience? Was it a bad move to cancel it all together? For example, I think this question is, was it a bad move to cancel in 2020? It could have been done without an audience at all. But I guess you've already I would. It would have been possible. The athletes were coming. Yeah, so. Right. So in 2020, there was no it could not happen. Yeah, regardless of whether there were spectators or no spectators. Yeah. OK. All right. So you said you had tickets. Which which events are you going to, Roy? I have closing ceremonies. I have men's and women's gold medal basketball. I've got karate wrestling and I'm drawing a blank on some other. Oh, there are a lot of track events as well. So, you know, 10,000 meter finals. Oh, you have quite a few. Men's relay. Yeah, yeah, I was really worried because I would have lost a lot of money if they canceled it because the handling fee would not have returned. Oh, I would have lost 20 percent. We have another question coming in. I haven't seen a lot of news for the 2020 Olympics until watching your show. Do you think it will be a success or a failure? Will COVID be better by July? OK, so let's start with will COVID be better by July? It's not looking that way at this point would be my response to that. Roy, would you agree? It's I think the number of vaccinations will increase. So I think the the the momentum is is heading against COVID. So. But all right. So I'm not a I'm not a virologist. So OK. But do you do you feel given the circumstances and what we've talked about so far that the 2021 Olympics will be considered a success? Oh, yeah, I guess it depends on the audience. The government will certainly it's it's it's going to be successful because every Olympics, no matter how bad the run up is, has fantastic. You gather the best athletes in the world. You know, I I know that Japan is going to be cheering like mad because they're Japanese athletes that you see them every day on Japanese TV about how they're doing and what their prospects are. And then 30 minutes later, they'll talk about how terrible things are with COVID. But they totally forget it when they talk about the athletes. So when the Olympics happen, there's going to be tremendous cheering around the world for the teams. I know, you know, in America, they're they're talking they're already talking about which players are going to play on the men's basketball team. They're you know, and you actually have LeBron James saying, I think I might play, right, which he didn't say before. So I think the interest is going to be huge when the game start as is true with every Olympics, like the real Olympics was a disaster leading up to it. And then when that started, all we have are great memories. That's true. Yeah. The the forecast error were quite negative, but it turned out to be the virus corruption, the strikes, the unfinished venues, a terrible economy. And from the Olympic Committee perspective, probably the majority of revenue comes through licensing rights worldwide. Primarily, I guess, the United States, whatever broadcasting rights, broadcasting rights. So if it runs, then there'll be a lot of money generated there. And it might be that given the struggles that the the worldwide interest in the Olympics, the fact that they're actually happening in the midst of the pandemic may drive more people to watch it as kind of an escape from their, you know, their lockdown world. Although what I've seen is that most sports broadcast the ratings are down across the board. Are they right now? OK. I even even when covid started, people have figured out, particularly younger people figure out that they have far more choice in capturing their attention. So, you know, sports are going to have to work hard to gain back the audiences. Roy, unfortunately, we've run out of time with so interesting talking to you. And it's easy, you're a journalist, so you've been in my role. It's so easy to talk to you as a guest. Is there anything you would like to mention to the audience? Any publications or anything you have upcoming that you would like to to reference? No, no, I mean, I've got my blog, The Olympians. I've got my book, 1964. You know, if you if you're curious about how Japan recovered after the war and put on the greatest show on earth in 64, please read my book. OK, fantastic. All right, Roy, thank you so much. Appreciate you waking up early and participating in this. And to my my viewers, I'll be back on in a couple of weeks with looking to these once again, I'm planning to do a review of how Biden is done as a president 90 days out from a Japanese and also from a European perspective. So that's what I have planned two weeks from today. Thank you again, Roy. Thanks, Stephen. Yeah, enjoy the Olympics. Thanks, I will take care.