 Hello friends, and thanks for hanging out with us today here on the market report. I'm your host Benton, and we are joined again by a resident expert, Marcel Peckman in San Borgie. San Borgie is a business editor at Cointelegraph, where he brings a decade of experience in economic analysis and financial market writing. Marcel Peckman applies his 17 years of experience trading derivatives, options, and futures to the crypto market's derivatives. Folks, we're back, we're alive, it's Tuesday, and there is some blood in the streets today. Surprise, surprise. We didn't expect this, we saw about six days of green, now we're coming back down to earth. Marcel, what's your take, how are we feeling about the markets this week? Well, first of all, it's good to be back, and thank you for all the fans that have been listening to us week by week, seeking for independent analysis, and that's what we do over here. But as for the bear market feelings, $21,000 or $20,000 is way better than what we saw two or three years ago, while we stood for $10,000 for over 12 months. So I don't really consider that a bear market compared to the others, but it's good to be back. Awesome to have you back here on the show, Marcel, and Sam, what's your sentiment this week, man? I know you have not changed your stance here over the last couple of months. Has anything changed for you? No, I mean my level of depression and anxiety hasn't changed, so I guess that means we're still in the bear market. No, I mean, last week's rally was nothing burger for me. I know there were some people who were kind of excited about it, you know, Bitcoin breaching $24,000, as we saw, that momentum has been sapped from the market. So for me, nothing has really changed. I guess we'll see how the next few weeks and months play out, but my base case is that we still bought them sometime in the fall. We'll see. Yeah, and I know Sam, you've been saying that and banging that drum for a while now. And I myself, I did not know what was behind this recent rally. Obviously, Ethereum kind of led that rally with the partnership with Disney and a little bit of hype around the upcoming merge. We're going to dive into a lot of the specific technicals today around Bitcoin and Ethereum, and Marcel is going to give you some on-chain data as well. So it's going to be a very interesting show, so make sure you stay tuned and if you want the latest, greatest insights into Bitcoin, Ethereum, what's happening in the general markets, folks, we want to give a big shout out to all of our community members that are tuning in here today. Tell us where you are tuning in from. I see Vikram is back. I see Adrian, big shout out to Ghostog, who's helping us do some live tweeting today. Appreciate everyone for tuning in from around the globe. Super action pack show today, but before we get things started, I want to give you the weekly roundup of some of the latest Twitter highlights out there. So Danilo, let's go ahead and jump into our weekly roundup for this week. 2030, do you think that will happen? Guys, if you're watching today, I want to hear your thoughts. Do you think we'll have a billion crypto users by 2030? Drop your comments in the chat. Also, remind, we're going to be giving away a month's subscription to MarketsPro, so make sure you drop your Twitter handle in the chat. We're going to be selecting winners here at the end of the show. So if you haven't liked and subscribed, go ahead and do so now. Smash the like buttons and notifications so you know when we go live. But folks, I think we got something fun for you. Let's jump into some memes this week. What do you say, guys? Meme time. Meme time. Meme time. Danilo, let's go. Let's do it. All right. What do we got? Global recession through AC, intelligence, and policy, and then a cheeto holding over together. That's what's in many cases before. It's good. That's really good. I want to know what's holding the 15k or the 14k. That's what matters most. That's a potato chip. Let me check the Twitter of the NFT I minted yesterday. It kind of doesn't exist. Classic. Yeah. Definitely. New trader, experienced trader. Sounds about right. We all get wrecked. Even pros. Classic memes. I'm a doge dev now. You can't even code Elon hard me anyway. There's nothing to develop. That's why I'm the lead dev. Those are good memes. Folks, if you've got memes to send in to the team, make sure you send it to us on Twitter. These are great memes though. Our team always does a great job scouring the internet for some of those best memes. So appreciate shout out to Adrienne and Danilo for scouring the globe for some of those today. But folks, if you're tuning in, tell us where you're tuning in from. I love having you all tuning in to the CIC Caltoros here on crypto, Sigma, GZ, Marcus, and Ghostog. Love having you here today. I think it's time folks. Let's dive into some of the analytics, some of the data. What is it all saying to us? We have a couple of articles we're gonna jump into about Bitcoin and Ethereum. So Danilo, if you want to mind pulling up one article written by William Seuberk here at Coin Telegraph. The headline for this week is Bitcoin drops below 21.8K. Realized price as FOMC spooks markets. I'm gonna blow this up here for you guys so you can read it a little bit. So the anticipated volatility comes right on schedule for crypto as the weekly close already looks like a distant memory. What happened this week guys? Like I wanna know your take, Marcel here. We saw this rally over the last week for Bitcoin. Like was there anything behind this? And are we seeing, why was this, why did this happen before the FOMC meeting this week? But I didn't see any relevant news for the rally, but for the past 40 days, we haven't seen a sustainable rally. Nothing that lasted over two or three days and we weren't able to break the 22K. Now we're not able to break the $24,000 resistance. So yes, the tops are getting a little bit higher and that's a good thing. But we're still on the area of contagion, meaning we don't know how many centralized finance intermediaries or exchanges will blow up, showing signs of insolvency. Recently saw like Zip Max exchange blowing up or at least blocking withdrawals. So I don't think anything changed in investors' expectations over the past three or four days to cause a trend reverse. So going back to the mean, which is the average price of the last 30, 40 days, which is around $20, $21,000, makes sense. So in the absence of news, the market tends to return to its 30 or 40 days price average, which is pretty much right between $20, $21,000. And in same, this FOMC meeting's happened this week. What are you kind of expecting out of this? I know we're gonna dive into some of the details later about what is the FOMC, why are these meeting reported, what are you expecting this week and the potential impacts it will have on the crypto markets? So the Fed fund futures prices, this is what pro traders use to bet on the direction of FOMC policy, suggests that we're probably gonna get a rate hike this week of 75 basis points. Now there are some expectations being built in that we could get a rate hike of 100 basis points or 1%, but those expectations were higher last month, believe it or not. Actually the expectations of 100 point rate hike have actually declined slightly over the past few weeks. So now we're looking at about nearly a quarter of traders expected there to be 100 basis point rate hike. Obviously the FOMC is raising rates because it wants to fight inflation. It's behind the curve on that. So for me, I think a rate hike is a strong given. The only question is how much do they rate hike? But the more important question is what do they do about the Fed balance sheet and what's the language gonna be like in the actual FOMC statement? Because investors are gonna be looking at the language to suggest whether the Fed might eventually put on the brakes, whether it's still full steam ahead. So they're gonna be parsing through that language and it's probably gonna have a pretty significant impact in the latter half of the week. We'll see if we get a sell on the news type of thing or a buy on the news, which might actually run contrary to what the actual FOMC decision is. But overall FOMC plays a significant role in the markets. It's right expectations around monetary policy and how that impacts risk on assets. And I wanna just pull up a quick excerpt here from the article to Denil. If you wouldn't mind just pull it on my screen again. The quote says tons of big names reporting earnings alongside with FOMC starting Tuesday followed by the announcement on Wednesday. Big week doesn't always mean market must see action. It could be a time period for the market to digest info for the next move. So what is the potential of just us not reacting whatsoever? And then if it doesn't react, does that kind of tell you maybe this is close to a bottom if there's no major sell off from this point? And I'll ask this to Sam and then Marcel next. That would be one indicator. That would at least maybe imply that Bitcoin and stocks are decoupling. I know you asked earlier why did Bitcoin and cryptos rally last week. I mean, we saw the Ethereum news which was positive apparently, but also stocks performed well over a short period and Bitcoin and stocks are still fairly highly co-related. So that could, if you start to see a decoupling of that, it could imply that the bottom has been formed or is forming. I however don't expect that to be the case. I still think we're in a larger macroeconomic trend. And in my opinion, we see bottom probably in the fall from a timing perspective. But again, I don't have a crystal ball. That's just my expectation given what I see in the market over the past year or so. And Marcel, you're kind of shaking your head there. What's your take on the situation? I think people are giving too much importance to the Fed, the FONC meeting decision. Remember, those guys created a huge monster, nine trillion dollar balance sheet buying junk bonds like MBS and even treasures themselves. So the market rallied for the past, I don't know, couple of decades. And now this magic stopped. The federal reserve simply stopped halted buying assets because it was creating too much inflation. So the big question we have, we have our head of ourselves is, is Fed gonna really combat inflation and start selling some of their balance sheets? Or are they gonna simply say, well, we tried reducing our balance sheet or we're trying raising the interest rates from zero to two percent, but inflation is running at nine percent. So even if it goes down to seven or six percent, it's still a continued price increase. So for the average person, everything is getting more expensive. And as things get more expensive, it is only natural for scarce assets which includes Bitcoin, which includes stocks, which includes housing to get more costlier. So the prices go up because there's simply more money in circulation. So I think we're giving too much importance for the phone meeting. And I wanna pivot to the chat real quick. It says Rich New Design, anybody thinking we've seen the bottom, he says personally, I don't. Sam and Marcel, Marcel, why don't you jump in here and let us know your thoughts about a potential market bottom? Well, we're gonna have to answer some questions first. Is the S&P or the tech stocks bottom in because the correlation between traditional markets and Bitcoin is really high right now. Sure, it went down over the past 30 days, but historically speaking, over the past 12 months, the correlation between tradition and Bitcoin has been really high. So if the S&P and tech stocks drop another 30%, because if there's really a recession coming to the traditional markets, meaning GDP goes down by 4% or inflation stays above 6% for the next 12 months and the tech stocks go down, I do believe that Bitcoin can still drop to $14,000, $15,000. This can still happen. It's still on the cards that could be done. It's same, we heard you earlier kind of say that you think there could be a bottom out, maybe in the fall. Why is that kind of the timeline for you and why is that kind of maybe your opinion? It's gonna be a fall brawl, baby. That's what it's gonna be. It's not gonna be a good fall, let me tell you. Marcel mentioned the correlation. I mean, that's pretty obvious. September and October are usually pretty nasty times for stocks, especially with this cocktail of nasty macroeconomic factors in play. I think if we see a brisk sell-off in September and October, once those Wall Street guys come back from vacation, they got their tans on, they wanna sell, you're probably gonna see the contagion effect spread into the crypto market because Bitcoin hasn't been a hedge at all. I mean, who hedged 9% inflation with an asset that declined 70% right? So we haven't seen that yet. My expectation is that once it comes to a head in the fall, we will see crypto reach the four-year bottom, Bitcoin hit the four-year bottom, creating a very, very attractive buy opportunity as we head into the next cycle. That's still my expectation. I could be wrong, who the hell knows, but that's kinda how I see the picture rolling over the next 60 to 90 days. Excellent insights, and we appreciate our panel of experts, David and Marcel, you got something to add here. I just wanna highlight that if you're living Argentina, Turkey, Nigeria, or any country with hyperinflation, Bitcoin has been a good hedge. Yes, you could have better opportunities elsewhere, but at least you saved yourself from the fiat basement. So it's working for some of the people, like 200 million people living in hyperinflationary countries. It's working. It's very true, that's a solid point. Now I wanna kinda pivot us here into Ethereum. We saw, we were touching on this earlier, how it kinda led the rally last week where we kinda saw a little bit of green in the market. This article by Yash Ugola, guest of the show here for the Marker Report, headline reads, Ethereum's bearish U-turn, ETH price momentum fades after a rejection at 1600, folks. Why is this 1600 mark significant, and where will we continue to range with Ethereum in your opinion? I'll kick this over to Marcel first. Well, I think my opinion, Ethereum went up because of the merge. So the developers, the Ethereum team, and said that by September, the merge which we used to call it Ethereum 2.0 would be approved or would be live. So it created a lot of expectation on the news. So it rallied. But after the investors and traders understood what exactly was gonna happen, that yes, there will be no more mining, so proof of work on Ethereum, so it's gonna shift to proof of stake. But at this point, it's not gonna solve the scalability issues. It's not gonna work like Solana when being able to transact 40,000 transactions per second or whatever. It's still far from that. So as investors understood what the merge is, so this exuberant pump dissolved itself. So there was no news, nothing really changed. This merge was already planned and it's not gonna really change anything for the final user. So the Ethereum 2.0 or the new Ethereum, until it gets the sharding, so the 64 channels or how many parallel processing channels that they're gonna have. So it's still expected for 2023 or 2024. So nothing is changing for the average user. That's why it went down. Yeah, and I mean, you heard Vitalik kind of touch on this a little bit at ETHCC, a conference last week in Paris, where he said that's kind of, there's 45% more to go even after the merge. And so Sam, let's say this merge is successful, everything's great. Is there any kind of catalyst for Ethereum to kind of continue up higher? Or do you think it'll kind of still range of where we're at right now in between $1,500 and $1,000? I mean, we could get a pump given the successful launch of ETH 2.0 and the merge and everything like that. But I'm still looking at it from a broader market and cycle perspective. I still see a large accumulation phase happening into next year. So I don't see any sustained rally. I mean, even during bear markets, we saw a certain assets rally pretty sharply. The conditions that we've seen over the past six months have been really surprising even to me how it's literally been like the meme down only. Maybe at some point we get a reprieve from that when we range higher, but I do expect some kind of range to happen after we bought them in the fall. I don't know what the range is gonna be. It could be higher from the current levels, it could be lower, but I don't really have a grasp on the technical factors of Ethereum because I don't really care about that, to be honest. Like it doesn't interest me at all. So that's my perspective on on ETH and what the merge might mean. So, you can see I can feel all the ETH maxis in the chat just about to blow their gasket here. But I wanna pull up a quick chart here. So Danil, if you wouldn't mind pulling up a chart. So what we have here is a daily chart for Ethereum. This is kind of the big macro trend line that I've been following here as we kind of have had this down only price action. This lower VWAP level that I've kind of been monitoring, you see there was some rejection there here at right around 1600, but we have kind of formed this support line here right around $1,000. So will this 1,000 support hold for Ethereum? We've seen it bounce off of that three times. Typically that's a good indicator, but that doesn't mean we can't go below that mark. So time will tell us I think where this will head even as the merge rolls out in September. So I thought that was kind of interesting to take a look at that to see where the support has actually formed for Ethereum. But any other thoughts that you guys wanna add here while we're on the Ethereum topic and then we'll pivot into our crypto tips for this week. Go ahead Marcel. Rich New Design is asking, the first question I would ask is will the Ethereum merge work? So eager to see if it will occur. So I don't think we should doubt that the merge will happen. It will eventually happen the migration out of the mining to the proof of stake. But as I said before, it's not gonna change anything for the final user. The price for minting NFTs is gonna continue to be high. The price of doing transactions on DeFi on order competing blockchains remains smaller. And you can still use second layer solutions as polygon matic. So I don't think we should give so much importance for the merge itself. We will see the execution here. We've been talking about the merge for a while. So that was our biggest headlines for this week. And we appreciate all your questions during that. We're gonna have a segment a little bit later diving into the FOMC and answering a lot of your questions about that. So if you have questions about the FOMC, Sam and Marcel are gonna be able to answer those. So make sure you pop them in the chat. If you haven't dropped your Twitter handle in the chat, go ahead and do so now. We're giving away that one month subscription of Markets Pro. So folks, I wanna give you some crypto tips for this week. So Danil, let's go ahead and jump right into this. Have you had trouble keeping your emotions in check? Well, the primary emotions like fear and greed can change the results upside down even with a good trading strategy. Such emotions tend to escalate when a trader experienced large swings in his profit and loss account, which is quite common with crypto holdings amidst their erratic movements. Working on trading psychology while containing greed and fear seems instrumental for traders to make more money in the cryptocurrency market. Moreover, it's imperative for traders to have the discipline to stick with their respective trading plans and understand when to book profits and losses. You've heard our previous panelists, Jordan Feniseth, talk about the importance of maintaining your emotions. So that is my big crypto tip for this week is keep your emotions in check and have a plan when you are trading or investing. Have your plan and stick to it. Keep your emotions on the sidelines. That's when you get wrecked is when you're chasing the pumps. Those are the crypto tips for this week. All right, folks, I know Marcel's got a lot to dive into here. He's gonna pull up the latest data for you so that you have that information for you to make the best decisions you can while navigating these bear markets. So Marcel, why don't you give us the goods for this week? Okay, Benton. So $21,000 has been acting like a magnet for Bitcoin for the past six weeks. But what is so special about that number? Firstly, we're 70% below the November 2021 all-time high. Tech stocks as measured by the KikiKi ETF are down 26% from their peak. And this seems fair. Considering our annualized volatility is 78% and theirs, the tech stocks, 31%. So roughly two and a half times larger. So if they drop 20, 25%, it is only natural for us to drop 70, 75%. But how exactly is Bitcoin market capitalization priced right now versus the competing tradeable assets? Danilo, I wanna share my screen, please. Here we have infinite market cap or eight market cap where you can check the valuation of every global tradeable asset, including Gold, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Bitcoin. And right now, Bitcoin is priced at $400 billion, which makes the world's 17th biggest tradeable asset crucially right behind NVIDIA and Tencent. So the tech stocks, which I just mentioned, but there are some questions on whether, for instance, Palladium, which is a precious metal, just like Gold and Silver, is down 41% from its peak and it's priced below Bitcoin at $350 billion. So Bitcoin is doing fine in the grand scheme of things. So the big question is adoption, fading after Tesla sold 75% of its Bitcoin and smart contracts, TVL, the deposits, went down by $100 billion in 12 months, in two months. So the question here is much more about adoption instead of is Bitcoin failing as a global asset, which I just proved it is not failing. So my suggestion is to focus on the number of daily active users instead of those big numbers of TVL, which is highly dependent on investment funds, venture capitalists, and whales. So Danilo, I wanna share my screen again, please. So here you guys have DeFiLama. You can check the TVL, which is the total deposits on smart contracts networks, such as Ethereum, Solana, and et cetera. It stood at $160 billion back in April and it's now down to 63 billion dollars. So down $100 billion in just two months. So to evaluate if the users, if the number of active users is going down drastically, we should check, for example, coin metrics, so on-chain data, where you can check the number of active addresses on Bitcoin and Ethereum. It's not the same thing as the number of active users because most of the users just leave their coins at exchange or simply don't move their addresses at all. They're just holders for the past four years, but it's a good proxy to see if the adoption is going up, down, or if it's near zero. So the number of active addresses combining Bitcoin and Ethereum pick it at two million users back in May, 2021. And right now there's 1.3 million addresses moving Bitcoin and Ethereum every day. So it's a good data. Yes, the number is down from the peak, but it's nowhere near zero or somewhere, it's much higher than we saw in 2019, 2020, when we went sub one million active addresses. So on-chain metrics are looking good. Another data that I like to track is the number of wallets holding at least $100 worth of deposits on Bitcoin and Ethereum. Again, the number of pick it in November at 30 million wallets combining Bitcoin and Ethereum and it currently sits at 23 million addresses. So yes, we're down from the peak, but we're much higher than what we saw early 2020 when we only had seven and a half million addresses containing at least $100 deposit. Thank you, Danilo. So my message here is stop worrying about contagion risk or the FOMC, the Federal Reserve meeting and focus on how crypto is being used right now. Is there a solid user base? Are there new applications being developed? Is there a significantly better competitor, something outside of crypto? And I don't think so. And those are the questions that one should be asking right now instead of are we down from $35,000? We're back to $20,000. We're still one of the top 20 tradeable global assets. So Bitcoin is doing fine. Thank you, Marcel, for those great insights. And I thought it was a couple of interesting things from where you were talking about is that Bitcoin is bigger than Procter Gamble, one of the biggest key glommer it's on the globe that has anything inside of many different industries. That was pretty interesting to me. And then I thought it was interesting that there was actually more Ethereum wallets than actually Bitcoin wallets. Did I read that chart correctly? Let me check. Right now, number of active addresses, Bitcoin 870. Okay, so Bitcoin has more wallets, yeah. I was about to say, I was like, that was kind of shocking to me if there were more Ethereum wall holders than Bitcoin. But that makes sense. But the difference is not that big, but there's more active Bitcoin addresses. Yeah, that makes a lot more sense. Folks, if you're just jumping in, make sure you go ahead and like, subscribe, coin telegraph here on YouTube. We're here Tuesdays, 12 p.m., coming to you with the market report. We're giving away that one month subscription to Markets Pro. So make sure you drop your Twitter handle in the chat. I see some folks doing that now. Always glad to have our community here chatting up with us. If you have questions from Marcel or Sam, our panel of experts here with years of experience in both the traditional and crypto markets, they're here for you to answer your question. So I know we got next folks, we're gonna give you the crash course on what the FOMC is, why these meetings matter and why we're always talking about them because of the impact that it has or potential in the crypto market. So let's go ahead and dive into our FOMC crash course for today. So the first question I have to ask is what is the FOMC for those that are watching at home and just have no idea? Sam, why don't you break this down for us? Absolutely, so the FOMC stands for the Federal Open Market Committee. It's comprised of 12 members of the Fed and these guys and gals meet eight times a year to determine the size and the growth rate of the money supply, basically. You have 12 people that coalesce in Washington to set interest rates, lab about monetary policy and then to determine the path forward on the Fed's balance sheet as well as on the actual interest rates that affect all of our lives in many different ways. Because when we talk about interest rates, we talk about the cost of money, the cost of borrowing money. And that affects all different types of assets and all different types of financial products. Even mortgages, for example, FOMC interest rates have an indirect impact on mortgages as banks and lenders pass on the higher costs or the savings to consumers depending on what the central bank does. So why is it so important? In a bull market, the FOMC probably plays a less prominent role if things are considered what they call stable. It has a less direct impact on the market because they're primarily concerned with economic growth, employment and what they call price stability or price control via inflation. Now, of course, we're seeing inflation ramp out of control. We're at the CPI of around 9.1% of the US, the highest level in over 40 years. Obviously, they got that call very, very wrong. They spent months telling us inflation isn't gonna happen. Then they told us, well, it's just gonna be transitory. And they changed the definition of what transitory actually means. And now they said, oh yeah, oh shit, we're in inflation. Now we have to actually do something about it. They're behind the curve, they're behind the inflation curve. They have to hike aggressively to get inflation back in line. And the only thing they can really do is demand destruction. They can limit demand and hence have an impact on inflation. So the FOMC meeting, the next one is coming very soon. The next decision is coming very soon. Investors are expecting the Fed to hike rates by at least 75 basis points. According to the Fed fund futures prices, traders are pricing in a decent probability of there being a 100 basis point increase in the Fed rate. So the consensus view right now is we'll get a 75 basis point increase. It could be as high as 100 basis points. Now why does this have an impact on crypto? I spent years in traditional financial sector tracking the FOMC meeting, the decision, the minutes, all that stuff. I came into Bitcoin and crypto thinking I'd not have to worry about that anymore. But the reality of the matter is we've seen a very strong correlation between traditional equities and crypto really since the corona crash of early 2020, I should say. Since then investors have been looking to the Fed for cues about when it could keep monetary policy highly accommodated. So right now what traders are looking for is for the Fed to pivot. We want daddy to bail us out because they're raising interest rates and we're all getting wrecked, including crypto. So investors are now looking to the Fed to provide those cues. The important thing about the next FOMC statement is gonna be what will the Fed say about their future rate hikes? Will there be any changes in language? Even a subtle change in language can have an impact on market expectations. So that in a nutshell is the FOMC why it matters and why recently over the past couple of years crypto people and Bitcoin people have been focusing more on the FOMC because of the strong correlation between monetary policy risk assets and crypto. Thank you, Sam for that thorough explanation. I just have a couple of follow up questions to that and so what is the current interest rate? And then for those who don't know what like basis points are, why is this like 25, 50, 75, 100 basis points? Why is this significant? And if you wouldn't mind just kind of break in those two down for us. Sure, so the current target for the Fed interest rate is between 1.5 and 1.75%. If you recall after COVID began and the lockdowns happened, the Fed cut it back down to 0 to 0.25. So from 0 to 0.25 all the way up to 1.5 to 1.75 which is the current range is a big jump for an economy that's highly reliant on cheap credit which is what this economy is. Every Western economy is the same in that respect some to a greater extent but they're all relying on cheap credit to grow. Money is created in these economies by lending. So what the Fed is doing by raising interest rates is increasing the cost of lending. So if I wanna borrow money now I have to spend more in terms of interest rates, right? That lowers demand for mortgages, for credit cards, for any kind of financing. It has an impact on demand. So investors are now placing a large bet that the Fed will raise interest rates by 75 points or 0.05% during the next FOMC meeting. Tomorrow that's gonna be the decision. Some are expecting there to be 100 basis point increase which also means 1%. If the Fed hiked up to, if the Fed hiked 1 full percent their benchmark interest rate will go to 2.5 to 2.75%, right? So that's what investors are watching and that's what I mean when I say 100 basis points and where the current Fed rates are. Excellent breakdown of that. And I do wanna get Marcel's thoughts here so go ahead and jump in, Marcel. What number do you think that they should hike? Maybe not next, maybe not this week but over the next three or four months. What is the number considering that 88 or 9% inflation that a Fed should raise the FOMC rates if they're really willing to fight inflation? Yeah, that's a really good question, Marcel. And that's subject to a lot of debate. You'd have to go Paul Volcker in that respect and you have to raise the actual Fed rate above the current rate of inflation. That's how you can zap inflation right away but there's not a chance in the hell that's gonna happen. Imagine the Fed rate going to 10%. What would that do to the house of cards economy that we've built over the past few decades? There's not a chance, right? People sometimes forget that the Fed tried to hike rates before COVID, right? The Fed hiked rates and it created a crisis in the repo market. This happened actually in September of 2019, I believe where the Fed was injecting liquidity into essentially the piping of the financial system because overnight rates were skyrocketing due to liquidity issues. So any kind of increase in interest rate is gonna have a adverse effect on GDP growth, on employment and on the overall state of the economy because our economy has been highly financialized and the asset bubble that all of us rely on, unfortunately, is gonna keep inflating. So are you gonna pop it by raising interest rates to 10%? I don't think so. The general consensus seems to be that the Fed will continue hiking rates until something really breaks. Right now the stock market has broken in a lot of sense but how bad can the Fed tolerate it before it pivots? A lot of investors are expecting the Fed to pivot later this year. And when I say pivot, I just mean they're gonna announce, we're gonna stop raising rates and we might actually lower interest rates. I actually think they have more leeway than that. I think they can continue hiking for the rest of the year and probably shift cores sometime in 2023 but that's just my gut instinct right now, given where CPI is and given where everything else is with respect to the economy. It just, it feels like we are getting like our arm tied behind our back and it's just like slowly getting twisted until like you said, there's that breaking point and then you start to scream like, ow, ow, ow, my arm's breaking. Right now it's just kind of like the first and then I'll show you what it's like. Yeah, you're breaking my arm. Yeah, Jay Powell, bring the printing press back out. We need more money. No, I hope there's a control of inflation that we can start to see. And hopefully Sam, I know your thesis was that CPI will peak in June. So hopefully that is the case. Marcel? Yeah, my question is, we have seen that the GDP numbers have been weak but nothing exuberant, not minus five or minus 10%. So that's not really an issue right now but the unemployment in the United States, it's near zero, it's sub 4% which people consider optimal, more than optimal. So at what point do you think that unemployment, if it goes up to four, five or 6%, what is the number that will cause economists and the general market to panic? Well, I believe there was a certain FOMC member or he could have been a Fed policymaker, I don't recall but he said, we're probably gonna have to tolerate unemployment above 5% for a few years to get this whole thing under control. I don't know the exact thresholds. It seems like if you guys recall right now that the White House is already cooking the books on GDP. So they're basically saying that we're not, if I can, actually I'm gonna try to share my screen here hold up for a sec. I want you guys to take a look at this. That's just incredible. If you can share my screen, please. This is the statement, there's a statement here where Secretary Yellen is basically front running the next GDP report. The US will release its second quarter GDP report this week and if you took a look at the Atlanta Fed estimates it shows another contraction in GDP. That would mark the second consecutive quarter of GDP decline for the US and by all conventional metrics, that's what a recession is. It's back to back quarters of economic or negative economic growth. But you have Janet Yellen here basically saying, well, hey, listen, if we get two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, that doesn't mean it's a recession because we have to look at a broader scale of what a recession actually is. So do they know something that we don't know? Are they trying to front run the GDP report because they know it's gonna be bad? If you take a look at this, what it says is that, hey guys, if we get back to back quarters of declines and we're in a technical recession, don't worry, it's not a real recession. Basically that gives the Fed even more time to continue hiking rates without having to worry about actual recession because Ms. Yellen here is cooking the books. So something to keep in mind. Thanks, Dino. I saw a Twitter post saying, it's not a recession if it doesn't come from the recession region in France, otherwise it's not a recession. Yeah, that's pretty good. I didn't mean, we even saw it, speaking of front running, I'm sure you on Twitter this week y'all saw how Nancy Pelosi was getting questioned if her husband was potentially front running the chip stocks companies. I know we had brought up NVIDIA earlier. So I thought, very interesting time for politicians here in the States and how they are calculating and doing certain math stuff. So always fun to talk about that stuff. All right folks, we got the two coins you should have been watching this week. So let's go ahead and move into that. Folks, it's markets pro time and we have two coins that went absolutely berserker this week and we wanna talk to you about them. So Dino, let's go ahead and roll into markets pro. All right, well, did you see Sands? Well, you should have because newsquakes are the automated alerts that instantly notify users through market moving events. And that's what happened here with Sands this week. Sands made the headlines after partnering with skateboarding legend, Tony Hawk to create the world's largest skate park in the metaverse. A newsquake first informed markets pro subscribers of the partnership when Sands price was $1.33. A few more news alerts followed and the price eventually peaked at $1.48. That's an 11% increase on one of the biggest gaming metaverse tokens. Love to see Tony Hawk getting integrated in there with Sands as well. So folks, the next token we have is Dig trading on the ticker DIGG. This one lit up on the vortex score which is a comparison between its current market and social conditions of those in the past. Well, what happened? Well, at the start of this week, Dig was seeing a gradual increase in price when strong vortex scores started flashing. The score alerted markets pro subscribers that trading and social conditions around the asset looked similar to the ones in the past that preceded bullish price movement. Shortly after the price skyrocketed jumping from $5,697 to $14,158. That's a 148% increase on this particular asset. I did a little digging here because I was completely shocked. There is a low token supply for Dig. So this one was a huge gainer this week based off of that vortex score. But if you would have that in your pocket with the markets pro app, you would have seen that and potentially gotten in on that trade. That's why we're giving away one month subscription of markets pro. So make sure you drop your Twitter handle in the chat. We're gonna be picking those winners here at the end of today's show. Thank you, Danilo. All right, guys, we're gonna start wrapping this thing up today. So I wanna hear some closing thoughts, but before we hand it over to you guys, don't forget, if you guys want the swag, go to store.cointelegraph.com. That's where you can purchase all of your crypto gear from coffee mugs to shirts that Sam has on to the coin telegraph gear. We got hoodies, shirts, hats, coffee cups, socks. You name it. You need a bikini for the summer. We got you. All right, guys, I wanna hear your closing thoughts for today. Marcel, let's start with you first. Give me some closing thoughts. What do we got? Okay, so my message is stop trying to bottom fish, meaning, yes, I'm gonna wait for $19.5 thousand or $1.1 thousand on the team until I make a buy. So if you have money, if you're sitting sideways, you gotta ask yourself, what is the best position for me to stay for the next three months? If you really do think there's gonna be a global crisis, global housing bubble crash, just like we had in 2017, 2007, 2008, sit on the sideways, just stay with your money cash at hand so then you can decide after the crash, if it happens to buy, if you're gonna buy gold, if you're gonna buy Bitcoin or you're gonna buy Ethereum. So stop trying to pick the bottoms and every mini cycle. You're not gonna make it if you do like that. Just wait, if you're not, if you don't think that the current price point is worth, then sit away. Go visit your family, your friends, go do other stuff, go earn money and come back in two or three months when you have decided, yes, now it's a good time to buy Bitcoin, now it's a good time to buy a house and just do it. So stop trying to wasting your time and your energy on your brain. Oh, is that $100 difference gonna make me rich? No, no, it's not. Just revisit every two or three months. You're gonna do fine. Love that long-term view, Marcel, given you the goods, appreciate your insights, Marcel. Sam, closing thoughts for today. So Marcel, you're telling me my buy target of $15,999 isn't good, I should just not worry so much. So if it hits $16,000, I should actually buy, that's okay. Yeah, I mean, I agree. Bottom fishing is kind of ridiculous. If you do it, you're gonna get wrecked. I mean, if you're a really good trader, a pro trader, you guys, you're gonna be wrong between 50 and 70% of the time. And that's professional traders. Most of us aren't professional traders, I know I'm not. So it's all about the investment thesis. Do you believe that Bitcoin has a viable future or do you not believe it other than that viable? If you believe it does, allocate accordingly the all our cost average and determine when you're comfortable under the market. I think anything at these levels is gonna be a good buy. I don't think we've bought them per se, but ultimately in the long run, whether you get in at 21 or 16, it's not gonna make much of a difference, but have that long-term horizon with any investment. Otherwise, you're simply speculating, which there is a place for speculation in the market. I'm not gonna lie. If you're in a bull market and you wanna pick altcoins and you bought a bag of altcoins in the cheap, there's a reasonable speculation, but to try to pick the bottom in this very volatile macro backdrop does not make sense at all. Great advice. And just to remind your folks, none of this is financial advice and these are expressed personal opinions of each panelist here today. What I will leave you with is, I think Sam and Marcel put this so wonderfully. You gotta have that long-term vision. I think I read a statistic the other day, it said only 20% of traders actually make profit. So this is not the time to be trading. When I show you these charts, I'm not trading these charts, I am monitoring what's going on. So again, folks, have that long-term view, have the conviction behind what this actually is. This is a complete movement and this is going to be your grandkids future 10, 15 years from now. So again, folks, we appreciate everyone from tuning in around the globe. I am gonna give away our market source description. I actually saw SigmaGZ, thanks for tuning in today. You were very active in the chat today and I saw that Twitter handle at 0x underscore Vivek, V-I-V-E-C. Hopefully that is not the other Vivek tuning in as a secondary account there. But thank you all for tuning in today. For the market report, we are happy to have you here. And until next Tuesday, make sure you like and subscribe and set those notifications on so you know when we are live until next week.