 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Morning Market Kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Monday morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, company alive from TFNN just after 9 a.m. Eastern time. We got about 24 minutes to go until the start of trading. You got markets pretty calm to kick off a pretty action-packed week. Doesn't get much bigger than this. We got Fed week. We got Jobs Friday. You got the biggest tech companies in the world putting out their numbers this week. We got Apple, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, among many others coming out. So we'll get into it, man. You kick things off. And we got markets pretty calm, as I mentioned. You got the S&Ps right now. You're up by one point at 49.17. You see the chop overnight. We're a size about 49.22 at one point. NASDAQ 100. We're up by 23 points right now. 17,550. You got the Dow slightly in the red. Dow off 11 points. 38,247 in the Russell. Just positive by two. Pretty calm action, right? Let's go back to a 15 minute here. Go back to Bitcoin. We catch a little bit of a bid from Friday. You accelerate higher. We continue on that price level. Basically where we were Friday afternoon on Bitcoin, 42,345. Crude catches a bid. We pop higher. 79.29 is the price on Sunday night. We pair that a bit. We're back to 77.57. You jump over to the gold contract. There's a bid for you, man. Gold up by 18 bucks, 2054. You jump over to the notes and bonds. What do we got? We got higher price right now and lower yield. Now, what's so interesting is you jump over to this, right? We got a 10. You're 4.1. Okay. So you have higher price. You have lower yield. We're back to 4.1%. We have a Fed meeting. Begins tomorrow technically, but the important date is Wednesday. 2 p.m. Eastern time. You get the announcement. 2.30 p.m. Eastern time. Press conference to follow. Yield back a bit. You jump over to the dollar index. What do we have? We have the dollar up 20 pennies. Now, this is so interesting, right? Not exactly usually what happens. What do we have? We have falling yields. Doesn't matter. We have dollar strength. Okay. What about the gold contract? We have dollar strength. Doesn't matter. Gold contract is up. Not usually the relationships they have going on. We'll see if these sort themselves out on the open. But nonetheless, that's where we sit right now is we have decreasing yields, which would usually bring weakness into the dollar. But that's not the case. You jump over to the dollar and you actually up to the higher levels of early, early Friday. 103.63 right now on that dollar index. We jump around to some of the other currencies. Your euro, backing off a bit. 108 we'll call it. We got to jump to the dollar yen anytime we're looking at gold and the dollar yen pushing almost 148. So no huge moves in that currency action, but we got gold popping by $20. So pay attention to that one. All right, as I mentioned, we got Fed on Wednesday. We got some huge earnings coming out and we're just going to run down the line real quick. So we got Microsoft out with their numbers on Tuesday. Jump over. Microsoft's not stopping, man. Another $3 lift on the open. This thing is just not stopping. Look at this. Yeah, 406.85. You jump over the fundamentals. We are now well over or $23 billion over that $3 trillion mark. $3.02 trillion for Microsoft shares. They're out with their numbers on Tuesday. We also get Google out with their numbers on Tuesday. Google, you're talking about right now about a $2 trillion company. Google shares, you're up by about $0.20 to begin things. It's almost no harder stock right now than Microsoft, right? So Tuesday we're doing right now. Microsoft, Google, we get AMD. You talk about stocks on the tear. AMD coming out with their numbers on Tuesday. Check out this chart. That is a rocket ship, man. Now look at this. It just completed it, didn't it? Let's back this up. Man, that was quick. Man, that was quick. Look at this. You got an A leg of about 60 bucks. You got a B leg. What the highs back there in maybe June of about 132. So what's that? 72 points, A to B. You take it off the low of 93. Yeah, we blew past that A to B. Absolutely amazing, right? You're talking about an A to B leg of 60. What did I just say it was? Yeah, $72. And meanwhile, you make a low of 94. That's 6. Yeah, that's 166. And we just hit 184, man. Oh, man. Now, be careful on that one, because you finished your A to B, C to D. You did. So we'll see where we go from there, but AMD actually surpassing your A to B, C to D formation. Remarkable. AMD out with their numbers. We also get Starbucks out with their numbers on Tuesday. A little bit of a different story of some of these equity Starbucks. Basically flat to kick off the session. What else do we got? We got GM out with their numbers on Tuesday. General Motors, 3518 right now. You're basically flat. Tough go-around for GM. We get UPS out with their numbers on Tuesday. UPS trading at 159. Been a tough go-around for a while for UPS. A couple years, man, trading off those highs at 233, about two years ago, late January, 2022. All right, this is what I was waiting to get to. Boeing. All right, Boeing. Now, check out this. So Boeing, they pull back to 198 on Thursday. You've caught a little bit of a bid here for Boeing. Shares you're up a bit. But check out these headlines, folks, and they're just not going to stop. Not when they're this tantalizing, man. How about this? You ready? Alaska Airlines plane appears to have left the Boeing factory, missing critical bolts. Regulators put limits on the 737 MAX production. They grounded the MAX-9 jets, have resumed flying after being their required inspections. But the increasingly likely scenario, it's absolutely appalling that this is what can happen right now in terms of quality checks, et cetera. The increasingly likely scenario, according to some of the people involved, is based on the fact that increasingly, they believe that the plane's makers, employees, failed to put back the bolts when they reinstalled that MAX-9 plug door after opening and removing it during production. They're just forgetting to put bolts back on planes and putting them up in the air, folks. Not exactly encouraging. It does speak to the fact that they need some greater regulation there, not wear and tear. Nothing like that. Remember at first you found out, first headline was they're inspecting the other planes and they have some weaknesses there. Oh boy, that's a problem. They're just taking the doors off and forgetting, how do you do that? I mean, as somebody that puts together desks, you take off one door, you take the four bolts that you took off that door, you put it somewhere, you know you have those four bolts, you make sure that those four bolts go back and you get the point. These are things that probably should be down to a science, not the case, and it's probably a result of production woes and probably a result that Boeing doesn't have their act together, man. So that's a tantalizing headline. That is from the journal this morning, right? Yeah, this morning. I was reading it earlier this morning, man, regulators put limits on the 737 MAX production. Can you imagine being a regulator in there and talking about the fact that, yeah, I think what happened was nobody put the bolts in. Yeah, I think that's probably the problem. Okay, let's fix that problem. They also pointed to paperwork and process lapses. Yeah, at the factory related to the company's work on the plug door, new evidence could later emerge. Um, yeah, they get some problems, man. The supplier said they delivered it with the plug installed. Yeah, they opened and removed it. They got some problems, man, put it lightly. All right, folks, we got a big week. We're coming back. We're talking some equities. We're going to take a look at some of those equities coming out with their earnings, the big, big tech companies when we get back. Stay tuned. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, Educating Investors. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to, and you can trust Larry's analysis. 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Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability newsletter. Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability, is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's Market Newsletter Mastering Probability and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free. At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability 30 Days Risk-Free Today. TFNN, Educating Investors. Welcome back, folks. We got the S&Ps chopping around when negative by just one point right now. NASDAQ slightly in the positive. It's pretty remarkable how it always lines up. We get them all at once, right? We're jumping through these equities right now. So as I mentioned, we're talking about Boeing. We get their numbers on Wednesday. We get MasterCard with their numbers on Wednesday as well. Boy, strong numbers from American Express last week, right? See that acceleration, man? Up to 204, American Express. Basically flat on the open today. We get MasterCard. Take a little bit of a longer-term look at MasterCard, man. Quite an equity off of those lows of 276, about a year and a half ago. We're pushing 438. Longer-term basis. That's a pretty decent trajectory, right? 438, MasterCard. They'll be out with their numbers. And yeah, we go forward, and then we get the biggest of them all. Well, not really. I used to call Apple the big dog. They're not the big dog anymore. We do get Apple on Thursday with their numbers. Back to a 15-minute. Apple shares slightly in the red today. You jump over to the Analyze tab. Where are they at? 2.97. They're $50 billion behind Microsoft on the race, man. To be the biggest company in the world, that's Microsoft. Takes a little bit of a lead. As we mentioned, Microsoft, their numbers on Tuesday. Apple on Thursday. We also get Meta out with their numbers on Thursday. You jump over to Meta, pushing all-time highs. $396.79 on Friday. You want to see a chart, man. That is quite an acceleration, man. Like zero pullback for what? Zero pullback for like 15 months of upward action. Quadruple English share price. Absolutely remarkable. Now, one of the things they mentioned here is that you had a lot of that growth being fueled by China. Is that going to be the case going forward? As in they took in a lot of money talking about Chinese e-commerce platforms, Shine, Timu to the degree. Tell you, man, I see a ton of Timu ads on Facebook when I scroll occasionally. A ton. And it seems like they got some pretty awesome products on Timu. I never go there, right? But it is always interesting. I look at the ad and say, why? That's a cool product, man. Why don't I see those ads everywhere else? They got good ads, but I see them everywhere. I do. Nonetheless, we got Amazon. We got ExxonMobil on Friday. We got Charter Communications on Friday. We got Cigna. We got many others. That's the earnings, friend. But what else do we got? We got the Fed on Wednesday. And we have jobs on Friday, which is pretty remarkable. Well, that's not where we are. Is this where we are? I want a one chart. Finding the chart. There we go. This is the chart I wanted. So check out this. Just before we finish the tech companies. Let me make sure I'm not getting hollered out here. Am I? Let me put a catch up. Thank you. Okay. Check out this chart real quick. Absolutely remarkable with the revenue that these tech giants are talking about. And this is just Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta, right? Five equities. They're all coming out with their earnings this week. Amazon, obviously on the revenue, they got more revenue, man, right? Because their margins aren't going to be there when you're pushing out revenue, when you're selling consumer products like they are, versus a company like Microsoft, Apple, Meta, especially where, yeah, their revenue is not as high, but they're making so much money off that revenue that market cap-wise it's going to the bottom line. Look at the numbers you're dealing with, man. These numbers all come out today. So you get Amazon, right? Where are they? They're above $150 billion, but look at them comparatively in terms of what they're coming out with this quarter, in terms of where they are prior, man. Tech giants expect Apple, accept Apple, to see a record quarterly sales, okay? Now, Apple is in, we'll call it off-white, I guess, and you can see that they're not quite going to get above where they were Q4 maybe a year ago. They're pretty close and maybe Q4 in 2020, right? Pete COVID coming out of there. Maybe that's when they had that record quarter, but everybody else is going to do records, man. Everybody else. You're talking about Microsoft. You're talking about Amazon well above. You're talking about Google Alphabet. You're talking about Meta, which is absolutely remarkable when you put it on that perspective where they are. And yeah, they got the iPhone 15, of course, but look at that chart, man. It's a huge revenue coming out. All right, what else we got? Yeah, how about businesses and consumers borrowing? Let's jump a little mortgage rates first before we get there, because that's going to tie in. Mortgage rates in the U.S. to snap a three-year streak of gains. Rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage is expected. Expected, okay? It's not there yet. Expected to fall to 5.5. We are not there yet, okay? At the end of the year, pay attention, folks. That's a long time to get to 5.5, man. What happened to six cuts, right? We're at 6.7 right now, okay? Well, you start getting to 5.5 though. That's going to open the conversation up on houses, man, because you got a lot of people at 3.75, okay? You got a lot of people at 3.5. You probably got a lot of people around four. When it's at 6.7, it's an intimidating process, getting rid of your 4% mortgage and locking in almost a 7% mortgage, right? But it's not as intimidating going from maybe a 4 to a 5.5, maybe from a 4 to a 5. You probably want to pay that percentage point if you've been holed out to move houses, access that equity in your current home, etc. But we've got a long way to go, man. That's 1.2 percentage points, and that is almost five-quarter point cuts, right? Now, this number here, though, you could say is factoring a little bit of the cuts to come already. Which is where it gets interesting, right? Real estate outlook starting to turn a corner. I think what's so remarkable here is that we haven't even had, what are you getting at? Oh, we do. We got a caller. I knew I was hearing bells. All right, let's jump to it. We got our man, Mike in Somerville. Mike, good morning, man. Thanks for calling so much. Good morning. Tommy, I got my daughter up in the bathroom with the iPad ready to record me, buddy. You got me killing me. You got me killing me. I heard the bells ringing. My producer was trying to get a hold of me. I couldn't keep track. We got too much going on, Mike. But I'm happy I got you, man. Tell her we're recording. We're ready. You got it. What's going on? Good Monday morning, Mike. What's happening, man? What are we looking at? You know I got to get that recording of myself calling in, so I'm, you know that, right? You got to do it. Now, listen, Mike. You know, we archive all this stuff, so if she misses it, you can always go to the YouTube page. You pull up that YouTube video. You can record it right there on your screen, okay? Just so you know. Perfect. So what are we looking at? You can go to school today and brag to all our friends that my father called me to T.F. and N today. You know, together now and right now. That's right, man. Listen, I heard you on the phone with Jacob. Was it last week or whatever? It's a good deal, man. We always appreciate the calls. Listen, what do you think about this? I won't buy it, buddy. I don't think it should be this low, even though Amazon did what they did. I mean, this was a good company before this, wasn't it? It was. Listen, and I haven't dug into this too deep. I was listening to Bloomberg early this morning, man, and I said, what happened? So Amazon's not going to buy iRobot for $1.4 billion having to do with the EU veto threat. They're going to pay 94 million bucks to iRobot as a result of that termination deal. It's a deal where they're hinging on it, probably, man. So I'd be careful. You know, the stock prices don't lie. You know, you can always see an overreaction. But the thing that's happening here, Mike, is that you have the CEO stepping down and they're going to do a restructuring plan. They're going to have to cut 350 jobs, 31% of their workforce. I'm just looking at, you know, Bedford, Massachusetts, right? They're right up there, man. And, you know, just from a competitive landscape, and I don't understand the fundamentals, but I'm not sure why that's going to... Hold it, buddy. I can hold it if you want me to. Yeah, hang tight. We'll finish this up because it's an interesting one. You got iRobot. They're going to be down, what, almost $3 on the open, man. We're coming back for the open. We're coming back with our man, Mike, from Somerville. Don't go away, folks. We'll be right back. Community of Traders. 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Head over to TFNN.com right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter, Market Insights firsthand. TFNN, educating investors. We got the S&Ps up by two. We got markets in the green. We're talking to our man, Mike, from Somerville. How's the weather in Somerville this morning, Mike? You hanging in there? We got cold temperatures in late January. What are we looking like in Somerville, Massachusetts? We got three inches up here, or not? We got three inches out here. It's on me right now. Got to love it, baby. Late January, early February. You're in the thick of it, man. Hang in there. iRobot. So we open, Mike. We're down about $3. Yeah, $13.92. You were at about $17 as of the close of Friday. You're down 17.8%. You know, let's take a little bit of a longer term. Look at this thing. It looks dire. There you go. That's where I want you to do, Tom. Look at a longer term. I mean, this was a very good stock way before Amazon came around. You know what I mean? Look at this stock. Yeah. You know, maybe they have some competition. I don't know what the deal is, man. Boy, this chart. I mean, Mike, you're back to below IPO prices of 2005. What is going on? That's what I'm saying, buddy. I just bought it in the pre-market, Tom. I bought it in the pre-market. I'm like, I'm just going to hold on to it. This is ridiculous. I mean, where this thing is. If you got risk capital in there and you don't mind losing it at all, that's one thing. But that's the money I would put in this equity right now because you look at some of these facts, right? And I'm just cherry picking, man. I was reading this this morning because I was listening to it and I found it tantalizing just in how the EU is really cracking down, right? I mean, this is a small purchase in terms of Amazon. But their case is, listen, this is going to hurt consumers, man. What are they going to do? They're going to take this product, right? They're going to use it and they're going to unfairly demote other products on their service. They're going to assign that little Amazon's choice thing to this product, right? Stuff like that. Now, normally they make the case here that the EU, you can make some concessions, right? If Amazon want to come back, they make concessions kind of like how Microsoft and Activision Blizzard, you saw some of that playing out saying that Microsoft was going to keep their games available on all different platforms, stuff like that. Amazon just didn't want to deal with it. That was the bottom line. They didn't want to deal with the appeal. They did not come back to them with any type of concessions they'd make. Now, when they were going through this, right? So this merger agreement that they had expires this summer. They had already renegotiated those terms once. So last year, iRobot was forced to secure $200 million in financing and Amazon cut their per share offer by 15% last year. That's the only part I wanted to stress after this because that's not good, right? That seems like things were already not going great. Like they're waiting for the deal to get done. Well, it's happening. Amazon's saying, hey, you know what? This deal we gave you is probably too good. We're renegotiating. We're going to cut the price by 15% and now what did Amazon say? I said, you know what, man? We're not going to deal with this. We're going to cut. So I'd be careful, man. You know, I mean, you're only talking about a company. Yeah, it was. Bro, listen to me. Let's take the Amazon completely out of the mix. Forget Amazon. Look at the stock before this. I mean, it's a legitimate company is what I'm saying. I don't even care what Amazon did. I mean, like you said, it took about the $2,000 what? Five or something? You know what I mean? You know, I see negative numbers for net income, though, and price to earnings and price to cash flow. And I'm just looking quick, Mike, but they're not worth anything if they're not making any money, man. And that's where I'd be careful. And that's why, I mean, they're right now, right? Right now, this company has a market cap of only $397 million. And the reason why I stress that, I mean, my dad was making the case. I know you listen to his program, man. I hear you call him as well. There's private equity, right? Private debt. They're so big. When you look at small companies like this, my brain goes, right? If this is a phenomenal deal, a private equity company could take this company private, man. It's only $397 million, right? If this is really going to be okay in the long run, so have that conversation too, because you're talking about a company that's under $400 million, and Amazon was just going to buy it for $1.4 billion. Of course they said, you know what? Let's pay $100 million to get out of jail free. Yeah, so I wouldn't be buying it, Mike. Doesn't mean you can't catch a bid, man, but they got some problems and they probably got competition. I remember when this thing blew people away, right? It was a marvel in terms of how cool is that. These days, I think they got a lot of competitors. I mean, Elon's going to make you a robot that's going to fold your laundry and do your rug, right? I mean, it's a real deal, though, in terms of they're just a vacuum company that rolls around the rugs. And nowadays, I think you're going to see technology take over and they probably got competitors, man. You know what? I live right down the street. Maybe I should take a jog and go right up and go up the front door and ask some customers, what do you got going? When are you going to start making some money again, man? That's what you're going to ask him. All right, look it. Hey, that's why I called you, buddy. Thank you very much. Hey, as long as, listen, as long as it's risk, that's it. Put a stop in there. Make sure you're protected because, yeah, because that's a tough-looking chart, man. And there is no buy-it-on-that chart, man, for sure. Mike, always good to hear your voice, man. Appreciate you calling in. Have a great Monday. All right. Thanks, pal. Tell your daughter we said hello. I will. Thank you. Okay, man. Have a great one. Got to love it. Mike from Somerville. Love that voice for sure. And yeah, I mean, how about these charts, right? Do we all learn something, man? How about these charts, man? The pandemic should have taught us all a lesson. 197.40, man, at the height of 2021 and just like that, you're down to 14 bucks. And as I was saying, right, you jump over to the Analyze tab. I'll have to dig into it, but you're talking about negative price to earnings. You're talking about revenue growth rates declining, right? You're talking about price to cash flow in the negative here. Yeah, so I'd be careful on this one, man, because that is quite a chart, for sure. And it speaks to the EU here in terms of that they're coming in a big way. Yeah. It says here they just jump around. They're talking about Adobe. They recently walked away. They were trying to buy Figma. That's 20 billion. This one was just 1.4 billion. Listen, the case that they make is probably legitimate. It gets tricky here with the fact that it's anti-competitive, okay? But you could make the case though that any purchase is anti-competitive. Any merger is anti-competitive. You could make that case, because in a lot of instances, the reason why you're merging is you're going to have more ability for products, more ability to control, more market pricing, maybe less costs so you can offer those costs to... Amazon buys anybody. It's going to be anti-competitive to a certain degree. But nonetheless, they're coming after them. And yeah, the Roomba. The Roomba might be going by my man. As I remember, a robot, $397 million. You're down by 16.3 percent to kick off the trading session. All right, let's see how the big dogs are kicking things off. Apple shares. Looks a little different than that chart, right? You compare it to that. So iRobots at 2005 prices. Apple was at 78 cents, a buck at that point. Pretty remarkable, man. All of these equities. We got to put it on a shorter term timeframe. Microsoft. We catch a little bit of a bid, but you give back some of that on the open. Microsoft, up by a buck 75 on the open. You're up by about half a percent to kick things off right now. You jump over to Meta shares. There's a lift for you. Meta, all-time highs as we speak. Up by eight tenths percent. Google shares are flat this morning. We jump over to Boeing. They'll be out with their numbers. Boeing, up by about two tenths percent. We jump over to Tesla shares. Tesla, up by 1.3 percent to kick things off. $185.78. We got markets and positive territory. We check in on the dollar index. Ooh, we got dollar strength, man. Dollar, $10374 this morning. Gold gives back some of those gains. What do we talk about, right? Keep your eye on these relationships, man. Gold gave it up, because why? We got dollar strength right now. Gold's still up by $10, but they give up some of those gains. Stay tuned, folks. We're coming back right after the break. For just $1 for the year, there's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. In the Tigers Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas. Interact with other Tigers and Tigresses as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tigers Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well, so it's always at your reach. 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If you're not satisfied, let us know, and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com. Educating investors. SPUU or SPXS. Directions Daily. S&P 500. Bull and Bear. Leveraged ETFs. Direction Leveraged ETFs. An investor should carefully consider a fund's investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares. To obtain a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus, call 866-476-7523 or visit DirectionInvestments.com. A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, Four Side Fund Services, LLC. We get the S&P's up by 4 points right now. NASDAQ pitches a bit up by 52. That's about 3-10 percent. You get the Dow barely in the positive, and the Russell particularly volatile down about 4-10 percent. We jump over to yields right now. You get the 10-year chopping around right near about 4.1 percent, as I mentioned. You get a little bit of dollar strength going on. That's putting a hurting in the gold contract right now. Still up by 7 bucks, but you just gave up 13 bucks right now. Keep your eye on that dollar index, man. If you're trading that gold contract, if you've never tried out the gold report, folks, you're thinking about just signing back up. Monday's a great time to do it. My dad puts out new weekly issues on Monday, updates throughout the week when warranted. Check out that gold report on the front page of TFNN. And we got to talk a little bit of football, right? They're talking about, and then Dan, man, some great football games out there. Patrick Mahomes, all he does is win, win, win. Man, that guy, he just gets done. How about Kelsey, right? Poof, that guy is a beast, man, the way he just catch passes, get open. One of the things I was talking to friends about last night is that Mahomes is the new Brady. When it comes to not making horrible errors that cost you a game, okay? Lamar Jackson was an incredible man. He had a pick in the late end of the game, right? Probably wasn't necessary. There were a bunch of things. When you're in the playoffs and you're in that close of games, there's just, you make, and the quarterback is running the show on offense, you can't make those types of errors. There's a lot of things, whether it's just a simple sack on first down, stuff like that, we're jumping around. Then of course you get into the case, man, about the Detroit Lions. Now, man, you live and die by the sword. I agree, Mike. Great way to say it, man. You go for it on fourth. And if you weren't watching the game, folks, Detroit has not been to the Super Bowl in the common era. That's going back to, I got to get the date, 1967, I believe was the first Super Bowl, right? What are we coming up to? We're coming up to Super Bowl 58, okay? So they haven't been in a Super Bowl. The Lions have never been in a Super Bowl. Imagine that you're a Lions fan, and they're a great organization with tons of fans, and you're approaching 60 years old, and never once from your date of birth have they made a Super Bowl, so monumental game, right? Lions, they're crushing it at halftime. It looks like they're going to be in there, and then the 49ers come back. Now, what did they take? Yeah, they were up 24 to 7. Is that right? That's right. 24 to 7, going into the half, you have San Francisco comes out, they kick a field goal to make it 24 to 10 to start the second half. Detroit goes down the field, they're up by 24 to 10, and they have an opportunity on the 28-yard line, where they have fourth and two, with about seven minutes left in the third quarter, okay? And they decide to go for it. Now, Dan Campbell goes for it all the time, and a lot of times going for it is actually the best play, okay? And everybody's focusing on the fact that with about eight or nine minutes left in the fourth quarter, when Detroit had already had their collapse, right? Which I think is going to be off the play, I'm talking about in the third quarter, though. They're down by three at that point, and they have a fourth and three with about nine minutes left in the fourth quarter, and they could go for a field goal to tie the game, and they go for it, and they miss it, and that was basically the end of the game. Even if San Fran doesn't come right down the score, it's almost the end of the game. But they did. San Fran comes right down the score, they're up by 10, the game's basically over, just like that. But I want to go back to the one in the third quarter, okay? Both of them are getting a lot of second guesses this morning, okay? And here's what I'll say. It's remarkable that when you're up by two scores, because everyone's saying on the fourth quarter, right, and you just got to think about these decisions, folks, okay, and the risk reward, and I bring it up as traders, okay? You always want to think of the risk reward, and it always feels good to go for it, okay? And as traders, we know that feeling, man. Just go for it, right? Just leverage it up. This is the trade, go for it. Be careful, okay? Because sometimes you've got your ego, it gets you the best of you. The third quarter play, if you're watching that, they had an opportunity to go up by three scores in the middle of the third quarter, and they passed on that opportunity. And what happened? They missed on the fourth down. San Fran comes right down the field and scores. So instead of it being a 17-point game, all of a sudden it's a seven-point game, and there's like four minutes left to go in the third quarter. That's a new ball game, man. All of a sudden, the game changed in three minutes, like nothing. Now listen, there were a lot of other plays in there, man. The play going off the Detroit defenders' face mask that, was it Ayuk? Caught, what an amazing play that was, right? There were a lot of amazing plays in there. But the third quarter game play is the one that failed them, I think. You got to go up by 17 there in the third quarter, man. And it's not even a fourth in interest play. It's not a fourth in one. It was a fourth in two. And I think you got to go for it in the fourth quarter, too. To Dan Campbell's credit, though, okay, he didn't believe in his offense, his defense, excuse me. He did not believe in his defense. You believe in your defense, right? You don't do that. He didn't believe in his defense. Now people will say he didn't believe in his defense rightfully so because on that fourth quarter play, they're down by three. They can kick a field goal and tie the game. It's a 47 yarder, okay? So this is not a gimme. But here's what people don't do. And this is the odds part of things. And I might look at writing like an article about the statistical probabilities of the analytics of these plays because what you have to realize is, is that when they went forward on fourth down, in the fourth quarter, okay, they're down by three points. They're sitting on something like the 30 yard line, okay? They got a fourth in three. Let's just say there's a 60% chance they get a fourth in three, right? They're a favorite. More often than not, they think they're going to get that fourth down, okay? But here's the problem. If they get the first down, let's say they convert that first down, they're still so often that they're not going to get the touchdown. And that's where you have to break down those kind of, just scenarios. You break down the calculations. Because when you look at the odds where, okay, so 40% of the time, right away, you almost lose the game because you don't tie the game. There's eight minutes left. You're herring the ball over to San Francisco. And they just give the ball away like that. On a fourth in three, these weren't fourth in inches. But what I will say is what happened? Well, they missed that. And what did San Francisco do? They came right down the field and scored, okay? So the fourth quarter one, maybe he didn't believe in them. But the point I wanted to get to in the third quarter, if you don't believe in your defense, that's okay. He's relying on the offense. He's going for it. Well, folks, they were going to go up by 17 points in the middle of the third quarter. Even if you think your defense can't keep up, all your offense has to do is keep up, right? You're up by 17 points. I don't know how Detroit fans are dealing with that one this morning, man. Because never seen your team in a Super Bowl and watching the end of that game play out like it did and the second guessing and the coaching. They convert those four downs and they win a Super Bowl and he's heralded as the champion that he would have been. But risk-reward wise, folks, the one in the third quarter is the one. I understand maybe not wanting to tie the game and give it right back to San Francisco, the way they were marching on the fourth quarter. But not a lot of people are talking about that one in the third quarter. And that's the one that I don't understand as well. And that's the one that started everything. Because what do they do? They went for it. They missed it. Then it's only a 14-point game. They turn it over to San Francisco. They drive down the field. They score on a heartbeat. And I said to my friends, that's it. It's over. They've blown it. The game is over. San Francisco's already won. So I'm laughing about this, right? As in I can't believe this happening. Laughing and saying, oh my goodness, how is it seven points when they were just about to go up by 17? And do you remember what happened right after that, folks? What happened? Detroit fumbled on one play. Yeah, they were spooked, man. They got the yips, as you said. That blew it. So it's a tough go-around. But try to remember that. If you face some decisions, not always the best way to go for it, man. Risk, rewards, sometimes it makes sense. But boy, I had a 17-point lead. No, we're going to win. The Gold Report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven in hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The Gold Report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly Gold Report every Monday morning for subscribers, consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the Dollar, Bonds, the South African Rand, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations. The Gold Report. New subscribers get a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's Gold Report newsletter now at TFNN.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. The reality is that navigating financial markets can be risky. 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I've got to finish that conversation about football, man, because I'm into odds, I'm into statistics, I'm into probabilities, right? And as a trader, you've got to be into these types of things, man. And so this is the breakdown of possessions, folks. Let me zoom in on this, okay? We kick off the second quarter. Detroit's up 24-7, okay? I'm focusing on it, not just from the amazement of it. It's to show you the importance of small decisions and momentum as well, okay? Because they're saying they don't trust their defense, right? That has to be the case if you're going forward to this degree. Well, Detroit had just stopped their defense. They got a field goal. And they got to match them on that field goal. And they had the ball at the 28-yard line with a fourth and two, and they went for it as opposed to kicking the field goal, right? Now, here's the kicker, okay? Momentum. Man, you could have stuck a dagger right in their hearts. Detroit comes out after half, they kick a field goal. Guess what? San Fran comes right down, they kick a field goal right back. That's what it could have been. No, instead it was a story of, here's the ball back, San Francisco, and now you're only down by two scores with almost a full half of football left to play. Well, you know what San Francisco did? They marched down the field in a minute and 41 seconds and made it a one-score game, right? They put the pressure right back. Then what happened? What was the next drive like for Detroit after they missed that field goal after their coach, excuse me, after they missed that fourth down? What did they do? One play, negative one yard and a fumble for eight seconds. Two minutes later, the game was tied. Add that all up, within the span of four minutes, you had a tie game as opposed to you could have been up by 17 points. Yeah, just remarkable you see the turn up. It's not a coincidence, folks. This is what I'm trying to show you. This possession here, one play, negative one yard and a fumble is not a coincidence. The coach put them at a disadvantage, man, and I love Dan Campbell and have what he's been doing, but you push it too far sometimes, man. Not a coincidence. That's how their next possession went. And just remember that when you're making big decisions, momentum, all that stuff, right? All right, we're going to finish it up. Man, that was a quick hour. Businesses and consumers are borrowing again. I'm going to post this one into the Tiger's Den so you can take a look at it, folks. All right, folks. Thanks for kicking off your Monday right here. Thanks to our man, Mike from Somerville, for calling in. Stay tuned. We got our man, Basil Chapman. He's in the Tiger's Den. He's ready with the Tiger's Tech Tiger Technicians Hour coming up next. Have a great Monday, folks. We'll see you tomorrow. Thanks so much.