 If I speak too quickly, just tell me to slow down please, okay? So today I will talk briefly about what I do. This is my company called the Futures Agency. It's based in Switzerland. And our motto is it wasn't raining before Noah built the ark. So this is a motto of my company. It wasn't raining before Noah built the ark. What we do is we help companies understand the future. We work with over 300 companies worldwide. And the idea is to say, what are you going to do five or ten years from today? And you know the world is going to be a very different place. Five or ten years, never mind, twenty years. I mean, if you look around you, you can see that basically what used to be science fiction is now reality, self-driving cars, artificial intelligence. Genetic engineering, geo-engineering, all the things that we thought were impossible. Super computing, quantum computing, it's mind-boggling, all the things that we see around us. And chances are our kids will experience some things that we think are straight out of Blade Runner or Minority Report. The children of your children will never know how to drive a car by themselves. They will not know what a clutch is, you know? Will you change the gears? Many of our children will not use cash, digital money. So the world is a different place, and especially now that we have what I call the digital reign, right? Digital society all around us changing dramatically what we do and how we do it. By the way, you can download the slides later on my website, okay? That's futurevisgird.com. Just give me a few minutes to upload them later. So the key thing is that we're really right now at the pivot point of exponential change. This is very hard to understand because people are not exponential. We don't think faster because we use Twitter. We don't have more friends because we use Facebook. We are limited to what people can do. But technology is now at Moore's Law, you're familiar with Moore's Law and Metcalf's Law, it's exponentially exploding. When you're looking around you, you're seeing things that 10 years ago we had already discussed. For example, the paperless office, right? Not using paper. That took 20 years, it's finally happening. Flying cars happening today, cars that can drive themselves, right? So exponential means we don't count one, two, three, four, five. We count one, two, four, eight, sixteen, thirty-two. If you're moving seven steps on the exponential scale, you get to 100. And if you follow Moore's Law, it would only take seven years to go from four to 100. It takes roughly about 30 steps to get to one billion exponentially. So technology is now exploding in a way where we can say, okay, never offline. It's entirely possible to always be on it. Ask your children, right? For them to go on to the internet is like air. It's like water, like going to the bathroom. That's good and bad. Genetic engineering, the time that humans can become fully connected like a machine. I mean, I don't think that's a good idea, but people are proposing it. Robots taken over our work. I mean, we should not have any illusion on this. Robots and machines and computers will take our work. If your work is automatable, if it's repetitive, if it's mostly logical, computers and software will take our work, engineering humans. I mean, think about this, right? There's a company in America called Human Longevity, Inc. It sounds like a science fiction novel, right? Of course, in California. And this company's goal is to end dying, put an end to dying, right? And their motto is that dying is a disease, but that for a second, right? Now, this company, Human Longevity, Inc. has just received the $150 million funding to go into our genes and to edit our genes to avoid cancer, Alzheimer's, and aging. You would think that's not possible. What I would there say is probably possible, not today, but in 10, 15 years. When you think about this, then you say, well, that's great. If we can stop cancer, if we prevent disease, everybody wants to live longer. But the same technology would allow us to program our babies. I literally decide what they should look like. So you can see there's going to be a huge amount of ethical issues. Who is allowed to use this technology? Who will pay for it? How will we distribute it fairly? So what you're seeing now on this scale, we're now in 2016 at four. And the next point is eight. 1632 is not five. So in two years, potential of technology has doubled. It will be half as expensive and exponentially on from there. Today, if you want to have your genomes done, your DNA analysis, you can get it roughly for $850. It will take a week. In five years, it will cost 10 euros to get your DNA analyzed. In 10 years, it will be cheaper to do your DNA than to flush the toilet. That means a huge substantial gain in technology. So I want to make sure of this point first. We are looking at right now in a situation where technology is mostly positive. We have lots of concerns, you know, privacy, addiction, loneliness, like we heard before. That's all true. But for the most part, technology today is a positive force. Efficiency, logistics, green energy, possibly looking at dealing with the global warming situation. I mean, that's all positive. It's 90-10. But here's the thing. Technology is becoming so powerful today that many things that it will do or is doing, we don't even understand. I don't know if you're aware of this, but just two weeks ago, do you know the Chinese game called Go? Have you ever tried the Chinese game called Go? The Chinese game, Go, is more complex than there are stars in the universe in terms of the numbers of moves. I mean, it's a mind-boggling, complicated game, much more than chess. Two weeks ago, a computer built by Google learned how to play the game without programming by observing hundreds of thousands of possibilities and sucking up the world's information on Go and playing a couple of hundred games with a person. And two weeks ago, the computer beat the world champion in Go without having been programmed. This computer was not programmed with information, it just observed, called deep learning. Now imagine this situation to continue. If the computer learns what else could it learn? Could it learn how to distribute social security to predict the future easily? My job will be replaced by a future robot. You ask the robot, what is the future of Europe? We'll give an answer. So in this scenario, the world is an interesting place and we want to make sure that in 10 years from now, we remain at 90 or 95% positive. And this is why we have to think of technology in context with humanity. Technology is a tool, it's not a purpose. And this is something we have to think about, especially if you are in technology. What is the purpose of technology? And I would say as an answer, the purpose of all technology is human happiness. So when we think about this, looking down the road here, if we get to this point, technology is pursuing purposes that are not so good, then we would have a major problem. And how will this not happen? Well, clearly, supervision, regulation, tradition, social contracts, agreements. For example, we're roughly about eight years away from a computer having the capacity of the human brain. That event is called the singularity. You're familiar with the Quartzweiler story. When this happens, one computer will have the same power than the human brain. That means the computer can be infinitely more powerful in these activities. For example, today, a computer can win go, but it cannot understand a two-year-old. And it cannot pick up a pencil from the table very easily. In 2050, one computer will have the power of the entire human brain worldwide, roughly 10 billion brains. The good thing and the bad thing. The good thing is, of course, we could solve very large problems with a computer like this. The bad thing, of course, is that the power of technology would be increasingly big. So we need to create a balance. We need to use technology clearly. We cannot say that technology should just be left alone, or we should go backwards to not using it. That will not happen, especially in Northern Hungary. We have a lot of scientists and mathematicians. This will not be a good idea. So we have to find a balance. I think this is your opportunity. We see use technology to create a positive outcome. As I'm sure you're aware of, I always say man and machine is converging. But many people said I should not say man, but woman. So I mean man as human. Man and machine are converging. This device here is not just my phone. It's my external brain. It's a second brain outside of my head. I keep my phone numbers. I don't even know the phone number of my son in America. I could not tell you it's in here. I use all of banking for information from media. This is my brain. And it's actually a pretty bad brain. But consider this, right? This brain is now more powerful than the biggest computer the president of the U.S. had at his demand 20 years ago. This one machine. So clearly we're going to have to think about what that means. Think about your kids. What jobs will your kids have? Well, the answer is they will have no jobs if they don't know what to do about this convergence. Think about bookkeepers, for example, great example. Roughly 32 million bookkeepers in the world, you know, doing books financial accounting. This is mostly about numbers and rules, right? Well, now the first software company called Zero XVRO is creating an online bookkeeping solution that can scan everything, all the receipts put in the right holders and 30 languages starting in New Zealand. So your bookkeeper is going to use Zero, but the transaction goes from 5,000 euros to 300 euros. Financial advice. Your banks will use machines to invest your money. It's already happening today. So we have to think about what that means, where we're going with this and what we can do. The biggest factor here is artificial intelligence. Simply put, it's a way for a machine to act similar to us with intelligence. This is, of course, a great amount of discussion around this topic, right? Because clearly a computer could not have emotional intelligence, or at least I hope not, or social intelligence. But you see this curve right here. Every single technology company telecoms, technology companies is investing heavily in artificial intelligence. Google has bought 18 companies. 18, Google is no longer a surge engine. It's an artificial intelligence company. That's why they changed the name to alphabet. In five years, you will not be going to the browser and saying best sushi and would a best? The system will already know that you want to have sushi. Will not already have booked this for you because your digital assistant is in the cloud, right? It's like a surge engine, but better, allegedly. I think humanity will change more in the next 20 years than the previous 300. I'm 55, so I think I will be part of this. I will experience that change. And I think it's 90% positive today if we find the right way forward. To also regulate technology like we regulate the oil business, for example. The information business, the data business referred to as big data and cloud computing is already making more money than the fossil fuel and the oil business. Of course, the oil business is going to hell, I'm sure you know. Roughly this year will be 7.4 trillion dollars of revenues generated with data. 7.4 trillion dollars. This data economy is a huge opportunity for Hungary. You need a lot of really smart people dealing with the data. You need people to figure out how to be intelligent and how to use human rules. What should be allowed? What should not be allowed? What is the social contract? Right now there is no social contract, right? Google, Facebook, Baidu, Tencent, they do whatever they want to do with our data. Imagine if we hadn't regulated the oil companies. We hope today is sitting in a pile of garbage. I mean, think about this for a second. So regulation is never a good thing for industries, clearly. But you have to find a compromise between the collective and the private benefit. This technology company is proposing that we're going to have babies without being in the body of a woman. Artificial birth called exogenesis. This is not a joke. Proposing because it's more convenient if you don't have to be pregnant, right? I mean, if you're a woman, I think you would be appalled by the thought. Well, anybody really. Really, it's a question. Is that really a good idea? Should we pursue those things just, you know, it would be possible to have a baby outside your body completely? Probably possible, right? But is it a good idea? I think you would agree that it's probably not an idea. The magic of mobile devices. I mean, if you ever watched any Apple Keynote, and I'm an Apple fan, I have to admit, right? And I actually met Steve Jobs twice, you know, for about four seconds until he kicked me out. The word that comes up in Apple speeches is magic, right? Magical, magical device, magical, right? And that's fantastic because we like magic. But this is not magic. To us, technology. So there is a difference as to where we're going. The combination of the human spirit and human way of doing things in technology. Of course, you've heard this many times before. Data is the new oil. This is 10 years old. But intelligent data is what we drive on. This is number one opportunity for Hungary. Data is the new oil. Intelligent data would turn that oil into something you can drive with. So there's lots of things to think about here, including what's been referred to as cognitive computing. Now think about this for a second, right? Cognitive means thinking, right? Computers that think are definition, right? Because we don't even know how people think. We have not figured out how we think, how humans think, how that works. We have not. I'm not a scientist, but I will take quite a bit of time. And also, of course, the major difference is about being. People can be. Computers can maybe read. They can not be in the sense of. But anyway, the biggest company that proposes this IBM, right? Ginny Rometti, the CEO of IBM, a brilliant speaker and leader. She says that every business will be a cognitive business. Computers that think come up with their own rules and do what we want them to do without us teaching them. Proposals include health. IBM has bought all of the health records, all of the scans and MRI records of the world. A doctor today who sees an x-ray puts it into IBM Watson. IBM Watson says this is just like the other 1,457 cases. And this is the intelligence. A doctor could never do that. That would be impossible. IBM is building a system that allows people to be fired from companies based on the analytical data. So the computer looks at all of your emails, looks at all of your appointments, looks at your sales records, looks at your social media, look what time you come in to work, how fast you drive your car, whatever you can read. And then it says, you know, these two guys, we can fire. It won't matter. That's the negative part. You've seen the movie Hur, maybe. If you haven't seen the movie Hur, you should watch it, right? Because it teaches us who has seen the movie Hur. Can I say you've seen the movie Hur? Okay, Spike Jones, you have to see this movie. I think you have Netflix now, I think you can see it on Netflix. You know the movie, the main character falls in love with the operating system of his computer. Not much different than our children fall in love with their mobiles, right? Same thing. But at the end of the movie, there was an important point to where the actor says, okay, he's in love with the system and he's asking the computer, how many more people are you involved with in the same way than with me? And the computer says, at the moment, 4,634. The computer doesn't have a body. It can do things that don't require a body. But here's the important part. Daniel Kahneman, who is a Nobel Prize winner for psychology, I'm sure you know, he says that real cognition is embodied, right? We think with our body, with everything, not just with the brain. So if IBM is using all of the data, that's a really great tool. I mean, everybody would like a tool like this. But it's not 100% of who we are. When I meet you in the hallway, it takes 1.4 seconds for me to find out who you are and whether I should talk to you further. That's the human factor, right? We have this immediately. We don't even have to say anything. Computers don't know this, right? So this is a very big thing for the future. To remember, technology is exponential, but humans are not. And this is a good thing. I think anybody to propose that we should be exponential is basically inhuman. Think about this. To be exponential, I would have to be non-biological. I have to add storage. I connect my brain to the Internet. Become a cyborg. And you may be laughing, but people are proposing this. This is a very bad idea. So basically what we're seeing here is that the future of machines doing these things for us will be positive for us if we can be based on top of them, not underneath them. If you're the technology business, your primary goal is not to make the technology rule us, but for us to sit on top of your technology. There's a big difference. Very big difference. So I want to talk to you about what I call the 10 Asians. Those are 10 things that I like to talk about that all end with Asian. And this graph kind of shows you where this is going. It could be heaven or it could be hell, right? On this elevator of the future, this could take us both to heaven as well as to hell. Here are the 10 Asians. I don't have time to talk about all of them. Anything that can become digital will become digital, right? Movies, music, books, biology, right? I mean, cognitive biology, have you heard about that term, right? Collaborating to create new solutions, mobile, screens, automation, anticipation. Computers predicting our behavior. If you're a Facebook user, I hope some of you are or are not depending how you look at it. Facebook can actually predict what you will like and how you're going to act. And Facebook can create a very deep profile about your character as prediction. And so I think this is really what I call hell then, right? Hell and heaven. And I Twitter, if you use Twitter, you can find my tweets on this topic, right? That means having such a device available can be heaven, especially when you're 15, right? Or it can be hell. Doing this now is okay, but imagine you're sitting by the dinner and everybody is working on this. I mean, you've seen this, right? I mean, go to Asia and sit down for dinner. Every single person is, you know, working on their screens. Building relationships with machines instead of people would be our future, right? We're going to spend more time and money on building relationships with machines. What's the point? They don't give a shit about who we are. They're just systems. But nevertheless, this is very, very powerful stuff for me folks. I'm going to take virtual reality, which is coming this year. This will change the way that we can see the world. Having screens where you can go inside of the operating room as a doctor. If you're in a telecom business, you can go inside the network and look at the connections and fix them with all of that stuff. And of course, back to her, right? So this app called Say Hi is a translation app because $2 works in 34 languages. You can take this app and speak to it in real time and it comes out in 34 languages. Three months ago I was in Tokyo. I had a half-hour conversation with a sushi chef. I spoke in German. He came out in Japanese. He spoke in Japanese, came out in German. I mean, this was not a, you know, personal conversation about philosophy or like, you know, that would be difficult. Trivial stuff, you know, fish, good, yes, no, you know. So this is heaven for me when I speak to the sushi chef. But imagine, imagine you would meet a woman or a man and you start dating and you would use the app to speak through because of different languages. Your relationship would be based on the app, right? I can't communicate. That's not a good idea. It definitely gets in the way. I'll skip this one. Clearly, if you're in business, you know what's happening. This is like Adam and Eve, right? Every company in the world wants to automate to do away with jobs. The less people we hire, the higher the profit. That's a form of capitalism, right? So every company I speak to, big companies, the number one question is how can we use computer software and robots to lay off people? Well, this is an obvious thing, right? Deep automation, robotization. Look at this slide here from the World Economic Forum, right? Industry 4.0, the last one. Do you really believe that in the future of cyber-physical systems, we're going to have more people dealing with cyber-physical systems? Yes, we will have more engineers, right? We will have more people doing science, yes. But what happened to all the ones that do small jobs, you know, not emotional jobs, not academic jobs? So I think then again, this is a good thing. Pretty much everything that can be digitized or automated will be. We have to assume that. That's Darwinism, right? Otherwise, we wouldn't live in a free market. So the garbage men will be automated by robots. Cleaning at the airport, robots. Food, robots. Bookkeepers, robots. Bankers, software. Yes, there will be many new jobs, but, you know, this is what's happening. If you like music, I used to be in the music business. You used to pay something like what, 20 euros or so for a CD. Today, music is free on YouTube. And it's 8 euros for Spotify. 17 million songs. I mean, how much do we pay per song? Like 0.00000. Nothing. That's what happens when you go digital. You read the news on your mobile device. You don't pay like you pay for the newspaper. It changes our world dramatically. And here's the flip side. Anything that cannot be automated will become valuable. Extremely. It cannot be automated. That's a good question. Human things. Imagination. Creativity. Design. Negotiation. Intuition. Innovation. Transformation. You know, what used to be the right brain, which is an old story. It's really more like a plastic brain. Anything that cannot be automated will become valuable. So I propose to you, since we're discussing this today, we should focus on two things for our future. Clearly, the future is going to be about STEM, right? Science, technology and G. Because the world around us will be highly technologized. You're looking for a job in the future. That's definitely a good job to have. But not on the lower part of it. Programmers, web pages. Serious science needs people. So if you want to go there, that's good. But the other part of the equation is what I call HECI. Humanity, ethics, creativity, imagination. Understanding people. Doing something for people. Those are the two jobs of the future. And my kids and my kids are 21 and 26. I always tell them it's best if you can do both, right? If you know how to program, that's good. But it's not going to save the day if you don't give a damn about people. If you don't understand people, then you can be a great programmer. Very few of them are successful. So yes, all the kids should learn how to program. But they should also learn how to talk to people. To understand where things are going. You can see in the slide by my good friend Heather McGowan. We need education that does both STEM and HECI. Two of us will be satisfied with just being in a STEM arena. Some people do. And probably some will be satisfied just doing humanities. But best of the both. In this graph, we can see how this is playing out, right? The old system of learning is just going from engaging to mastery. You know, stuffing your brain with information. The new system is a liquid system. As you learn as you go, some people say we should not learn just in case. We should learn just in time. Think about what that would mean for our universities. A different approach. We need for this. I'll skip this because we don't have enough time. I'll give a brief sidetrack, you know, talking about what is happening with social networks and was discussed earlier. Two weeks ago, I announced that I will probably leave Facebook as a platform. And there are many reasons for this. I call this the evilification, you know, the other Asian. Facebook really has become quite evil in many ways. Did you know that Facebook is using facial recognition in the back end? If you have five photos on Facebook, it can find you, no matter what you look like, even if there's no name attached, they're using the same technology than the FBI, so they can connect to your face. Did you know that when you're logged into Facebook, every website you go to, if it has a Facebook button, it gives the identity of your link on Facebook to the place with the button? Facebook tracks every single website you go to when you're logged into Facebook. Now, some people say, well, who cares, right? I think that's going a little bit far. And you know what happened a few days ago? The Indian government said they will not allow telecom companies to provide Facebook free of charge. That basically was a limited access to the internet that's Facebook only. Think about that for a second. And here's the chart that shows what goes on here, right? Facebook is now worth more money than Walmart. Selling people makes more money than selling goods. So that's the question I did a survey. I think too large to be social media has become like smoking. It's like an addiction, a pleasure trap. Through the listen. So I did some research on my website and you can't really see the slide, but about 62% of people that I asked said it's time to leave. So feel free to provide some feedback later. I'll do two more points on the off the stage, right? So key point, technology has no ethics. But if you're in a technology business, technology company, you have to have ethics. Imagine a human society without ethics. I'm not talking about religion here. I'm talking about values, understanding. Dalai Lama said not everybody has religion, but everybody has ethics. A society without ethics would be hard to imagine, right? So I think this is the thing that we have to think about at the age of digital ethics, right? Think about what is good and bad, how people relate to machines. Let's get this as well. We have to ask this question now if we use technology. The question is why? It's funny, a couple of years ago we asked a question and we said, okay, can technology actually, is it possible, right? Today if you ask the question if it's possible, for example, that five billion genetic codes are analyzed and compared, the answer is yes, it's possible. Is it possible for a car and drive itself? Yes, it's possible. Is it possible to beat cancer? Eventually, probably. Is it likely there are some people living on other planets? Quite likely, but those are weird questions. Now Octavio Paz said about technology, he says there's a nihilism, you know, no ethics. He says why and to what technology does not ask? We have to ask that question. If in the tech business you have to ask the question because otherwise we're looking at autonomous weapons robots that can kill or demand. The Chinese government has a new program where every person in the country gets a credit rating through an app and every person in the country is required to get a credit rating. We have a society to where we can scan and record everything that we do. Yes, we scan, remember that? And then we may have a world that could be our final dimension. I'll skip this as well. So two more points that I'm really off the stage. Silicon Valley is making a boatload of money with technology and many of you are associated with those companies and I work for a lot of companies in Silicon Valley. That's an advice. And here's the thing. This is all fantastic innovation, we have to balance it with what we can do in Europe and that's called humanity, right? What will happen to humanity? Do we really want Silicon Valley to be mission control for humanity? That will be not because there's more to humanity than technology as I'm trying to tell you. So my final word is this. We should embrace technology and for a country like Hungary this is an amazing opportunity. Embracing technology, embracing that data, artificial intelligence, all these things I talked about but we should not become technology. There's a fine line between those two things. A philosopher once said that technology is not what we seek but how we seek. There's a huge business in helping people seeking things. That's big enough. Why do we have to actually make the seeking the purpose? The seeking is not the purpose. It is what we are that's the purpose. So basically I think this is the opportunity here to think about the future as mostly positive and it's about technology. To think about what that means for us as humans. And that requires stewardship. Deciding what's good and bad and finding ways around this. Thanks very much for listening. Please visit us at www.futurevisguard.com. Thank you.