 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network We have waited long enough. It is finally time to break down the 2022 college football playoff semifinals TCU vs. Michigan Ohio State vs. Georgia We're gonna break down both those games from a betting perspective get Ed Feng's read on both those let you know Where to find the value over a fan dual sportsbook? This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and Number fire calm. My name is Jim Sanis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm Join here as mentioned by Dr. Ed Feng to find his work at the power bank calm and check him out on Twitter at the power I can add massive massive really fun. We can college football this week. How you doing today? I'm doing well pretty excited about these semifinal games and what's gonna happen and Yeah, we also have a lot of interesting bowl games as well I feel like it's because like bowl season has become the NFL preseason You know, you have to research all these personnel angles and who's playing and who's transferring and Who entered the transfer portal but didn't transfer like Austin Reed at Western Kentucky. Yeah, so it's a whole new It's a whole new call last night Grayson McCall last night playing. Yeah, so we knew that right Yeah, he was gonna transfer and then play in this game and then he almost breaks his neck Was it worth it? You know, that's always kind of the the question and like I think if you look at my like Twitter search history every single one is like skill position guys and bowl games because I'm playing some like DFS for the for the ball season and like I'm just like paranoid that I'm gonna have a guy who like transferred or is out cuz they injure something like that It's like every single like Tweet that are a thing that I searched on Twitter is some person's name because I'm just paranoid about missing something there Yeah, yeah, exactly. So yeah, I know I feel like there's probably a lot of betters betting on on these games Just because it's it's not yeah, you know, like a lot of these games like the numbers Mean less, right? Fortunately, they mean more for these semi-final games that we'll talk about today. Yeah, but you know There's a lot of things to figure out, right? I kind of think You know, it's also interesting to you know, Tana Morgan from Minnesota has been hurt But kind of looks like he's gonna be back for this game The markets move pretty heavily towards Minnesota almost a 10-point favorite now And he also signed up to play in an all-star one of these senior bowl games on January 14th Which suggests that he's on the mend and yeah and gonna play So so there's a lot of interesting things going on there as well Well, I think that you talked about how betters might be more heavily invested in these ball games because they're They are you know information based and that kind of goes back to I was Listening to the deep-dive podcast of Drew Dinsick and Andy Molliter during NFL preseason They're like yeah, like this is the best time to bet Because it's so information heavy if you're plugged in if you've got people who like, you know, if you've got good information You can be very profitable. So Personally, that's not my strength, which means I'm better suited sitting out, you know You know watching these games plans in DFS and kind of just enjoying them But if you are a serious person who has like information, I think it's got to be like a really good time for you Given the advantages you have potentially over the books and not situations We get very often outside of like you mentioned the NFL preseason, but also these bull games. Yeah, absolutely I mean, there's there's a lot of information to dig up, you know, who is USC's backup quarterback What can he do things like that? Exactly. So we're gonna mention the games you talked about Talk about those semi-finals breakdown Ed's thoughts on those and get you ready for a fun Saturday And just a bit but first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast three shows this week Or NFL week 17 first look is up broke down Where my numbers are showing value this week and my power rankings entering week 17 That is up on the fatal YouTube page and on the covering the spread podcast feed and then tomorrow Austin same over Tom Vecchio will be with me to break down NFL week 17 a full preview this week's biggest game to get that by Subscribing to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts looking to get more out of this NFL season Well, now is the perfect time to download Fandal America's number one sportsbook because new customers get a no-sweat first bed up to $1,000 that's free beds back if your first bed doesn't win just download the Fandal sportsbook app It's safe secure and super easy to use that you can bet on everything from the money line to touchdown scores and over under yardage Plus Fandal even lets you combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with a same-game parlay So don't miss a chance to get your no-sweat first bed up to $1,000 in free bets when you join Fandal make every moment more a Fandal and official sports betting partner of the NFL Must be 21 plus and president select states first online real money wager only Refund issued as non withdrawal of free bets that expire in 14 days Restrictions applies to your terms at sportsbook.fandal.com gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or visit fandal.com slash RG in Arizona 1 800 next step or text X F to 5 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1-800 9 with it in Kansas NY oming 1-800 5 2 2 4700 in Kansas KS gambling health comm in Louisiana 1 8 7 7 7 7 0 stop in Maryland MD gambling health org in New York 1 8 7 7 8 open wire text open Y or in West Virginia go to 1 800 gambler dot net Let's dig in here to Saturday's games before we talk about the game specifically I want to talk to you about more what we've learned so far from past iterations the college football playoff because we've had eight years of data to this point the ninth edition coming up on Saturday when you look back at those other years And this can be something you've dug into yourself like from a numbers perspective or just what you kind of noticed Anecdotally from betting these games watching these games What stands out to you that you're caring over this week as lessons for the college football playoffs? When I looked over the college football playoff era it it was kind of shocking, you know, this is the first year that We'll have a playoff without both Alabama and Clemson Yeah, and I think the consequence of that is that, you know, you're probably gonna get some pretty competitive semi-final games No Alabama versus Michigan State. I don't remember what the line was in that game, but I do remember the score was pretty lopsided Yeah, so I mean it's interesting from that perspective, you know I mean Alabama and Clemson have so dominated college football, but I think both those programs have some questions You know like you know Nick Saban's had You know just the plethora of recruiting NFL caliber wide receivers and then all of a sudden this year He has to hit the transfer portal for those skill player, which which was really strange Clemson has its problems. The offense has been pretty bad Changes with the defensive coordinator and that unit wasn't quite as good this year as well So, you know, they still won that they still on the ACC. They're they're still a good football program But it's a big question whether they're gonna be one of these elite programs, right? So, yeah, it's a little it's it's a little bit different. You know, we have what a spread of six and a half and seven and a half You know in these semi-final games. I I didn't look specifically but it but You know, I'm gonna argue later that one of those games should be even more competitive than that I think we are gonna get some pretty competitive semi-final games And and the final should be good too. I think I'm gonna have I mean at least my numbers are gonna have this bread Not fine. What what I think the final assuming that Michigan gets there. It's gonna be pretty tight So, yeah, should be a competitive playoff I think that's the first thing and then, you know, I mean we're kind of on like two games away from, you know Putting Georgia in, you know, the the dominant position in college football Having been back-to-back national champs and they will also have kind of upended college football in another way, you know, winning two College football playoffs with Stetson Bennett, who's a great college quarterback, but not one with a ton of pro potential for whatever dumb reason that might be You know, like there's kind of been this argument that you need to have not just a good quarterback, but a quarterback The caliber of the first pick in the NFL draft to win a national championship And you know the the exception to that rule was, you know, like the Cardale Jones of Ohio State in the very first College football playoffs and yes, we have to talk about Jacob Coker as well for Alabama But if you look at who's won over the long haul It's been the Joe Burroughs and the Cam Newtons and the Trevor Lawrence's and players with that caliber And so, you know, if we have back-to-back Stetson Bennett championships You know, I mean every season is a little bit different, but You know, maybe it was maybe it was a little bit little bit too crazy that it was that kind of streak of number one draft picks a quarterback But it is the most important position and it'll be interesting to see kind of how that narrative changes But anyways, those are kind of the two big takeaways looking over. I mean where it's going to be our ninth year of the college football playoff Yeah, you were talking about the competitiveness and Ben Stevens of sports grid a guy we've had on the show plenty tweeted earlier today He's talking about the average margin of victory in the semi-finals is 21.03 points. That's massive And I do think that we should see some at least one pretty good game here on Saturdays. Let's talk about those games Maybe we get to let's see get you read on TCU versus Michigan first right now Michigan a seven and a half point favorite over at Fandall sportsbook total for that game is 58 and a half and And obviously you are super tuned into Michigan TCU is a team we talked about on almost every show this year It seemed like because they were always in very tight games, but they obviously pulled through and almost every single one of those So when you look at this game, what stands out to you from a betting perspective? Yeah, I mean I kind of think the market has had TCU correct all year My numbers have Michigan closer to a nine point favorite, but I'm not particularly interested in betting the side here For said reason, I think the markets have been spot on with with TCU You know, I mean they were what a seven point underdog to Texas. They were a couple point favorite against Kansas State in the end In the in the big 12 championship game, I think both those numbers were spot on I think this number is pretty spot on I might get a little bit interested if it goes down to seven, but I don't really think that's going to happen I think this is a pretty good match up from Michigan. I think they do take care of business and yeah, they should they should march on into the championship game Total is 58 and a half any read for you on that Yeah, it's interesting. I mean I think you know when you think about World Cup games and they kind of tend to get tight and like the probability of lower scoring You know, they're just you can see the markets favoring lower scoring games. There's got to be a little bit of that here You know my numbers are my numbers like the over and both semi-final games. I'm not sure if I like either one of them You are going to tend to be a little bit more cautious in that game. I think that does happen in American sports as well. So Yeah, no, I'm not I'm not too interested. Yeah in the over. I think there is a little bit of conservativeness there and we'll see what happens Okay, so we talked this would have been a couple weeks ago. You mentioned that we can dig into player props for these games Yeah, actually go to fangirls sportsbook and they've got everything up You know individual player props a lot of different markets So yeah a lot of ways to attack this game any value for you in those markets then Yeah, for sure. I anytime you have a guy like Donovan Edwards in Michigan that has had two absurd games the last two games against Ohio State He broke the two long runs near the end of the game to really put that game away He had another big game against Purdue in the Big 10 championship game and anytime you get those types of performances You're gonna see a big big number when you look at his rushing yards And oh golly. Do we have a big number? I'm just gonna I'm just gonna over at Draftings. It's it's 136 and a half Wow rushing yards I don't really bet a ton of these rushing yard props, but that seems like an absurdly high number and You know you can certainly make the argument that that's reasonable He got 25 carries against Purdue and if like, you know, he's average seven and a half for the year But if you only assume that he averages six, he's still probably gonna get there But that's an absurd number. I like the under there I'm pretty sure Fandall had it like at 125 and a half. Yeah, which I also thought was absurd But right that's 10 yards lower than another sportsbook. So I'm going to go into the other sportsbook there Yeah, it's just a big number and it's something that you expect and the big reason is it's not it's not like It's not like I don't think Donovan ever just capable of it And I and I do think that Michigan is capable of breaking those big runs and they have all year But there is a big random element in those explosive plays, you know, it's just one, you know It's it's it's hard to have all 11 guys working together to break open a perfect play and there's a big random element that That my data analysis and stuff that Bill Connolly has done has shown and it's it's just you have to break You have to break some big plays to get to 136 and is he capable? Sure But I'm going to bet the other I mean you're talking about medians versus ceiling or average And I think that's a big the key thing there with those big plays is they can boost your average But the median is still it takes more to boost that median and like we talked a lot about how the big Advantage in player props is you're gonna get more discrepancy from one book to the next But nine yards. I know the percentage wide is different because it's such a big number but like nine yards difference from one Book to the next is I guess 11 11 yards is nuts like that's yeah borderline unprecedented I think I don't know I will I mean that number was available on DK this morning I bet it I don't know if that's still up there but like even if it's like a spread of eight yards like Yeah, you know and you know and and those two books were the ones that did have these rushing totals up Yeah, I think some of the other books are you know we'll have them up a little bit later but That seems like an absurdly high number I mean it's kind of the perfect confluence right I mean I remember that you know Raheem Moser had an insane game in the NFC championship game a couple years ago went to the Super Bowl against KC I had a really high total and you know it's just the same idea right you have a big game because you break some explosive plays like Bet the under in the next game that worked out right I hope this works out as well if it doesn't then you know Michigan's probably pretty likely to win if if Donovan Edwards has over 136 yards so so I'd be happy there too Right exactly happy regardless if it does get to seven would that be enough because we've seen a lot of late movement in these Big games they're very public you know we'll see a lot of money come in day of and stuff like that so we've seen late movements If it gets to seven would that be enough where you would bite or do you think you want to just live with the player props in this game Yeah I'll have fun with the player props I got a lot of other emotional stuff right now in this game too so like But but I do think there would be some value at seven remember this I mean this game started at like nine and a half Yeah and so we've seen it drop two points I think that's I don't think it's going to drop anymore but if it does I would suggest and value Michigan Okay well let's shift focus to a game you've talked about already a bit and liking to bet here that is Ohio State versus Georgia The spread in this one is Georgia minus six and a half total of 62 and a half right now at Fandle Sports Week and we talked two weeks ago You liked Ohio State plus six and a half and obviously not everybody listening today was listening back then So I want to go back to that and get your thoughts on why you like that number and then any thoughts for you in the total as well while we're here Yeah I think people are kind of overreacting to what happened to Ohio State versus Michigan Ohio State lost and they ended up losing pretty badly in the final stages of that game However they did they were more successful in that game In terms of success rate and I would still argue like like think about these four teams right which team has the best quarterback Ohio State Ohio State I mean I don't think there's much of an argument there and I still think Ohio State has best offense in the country And maybe not the best offense statistically but certainly the best the highest ceiling when you're talking about a guy at quarterback who might be one of the top two picks in the draft You have multiple receivers that will probably end up in the league as well and just the program that has really done it on that side of the ball And they did it against Michigan too right they had almost 500 yards in that game had some opportunities late turnover bug did them And they weren't able to cut into that lead but that doesn't mean they weren't able to move the ball This is a really good offense I think there's a lot of overreaction to what happened in that Michigan game and again the explosive plays there's a big random element in that as well Michigan was able to take advantage of that but is that going to happen again maybe but but maybe not Ohio State's defense has been you know for the most part really good this year And I can see them having a pretty good decent game against Georgia you know I bet this Ohio State plus seven I think there's a lot of value there and Honestly really kind of think it's it's it's like you know you kind of saw with your eyes what happened with Ohio State versus Michigan and I think a lot of people especially in Ann Arbor really think that's going to happen again and you just kind of have to remember that there's kind of a big random component to those explosive plays Ohio State still has the best offense in this playoff and it's you know things can be a lot different It's interesting to the ripple effect of having one of those games being like the most watch college football game of the year where you see the impact on the Donovan Edwards rushing And this also like partly due to play quorum stuff like that makes sense there but also it ripples into this Ohio State versus Georgia game potential ripples into like the championship markets as well having that one big game on a massive massive stage and how Layer the reaction to that one game can be especially when like you were saying that that the reaction to it is so dependent on breaking off big plays which is not something we could you know we're lively project and predict going forward Right exactly you said it perfectly right it's really hard to say oh these explosive plays happen so they're going to happen again I think that that's the big thing and yeah when you just kind of look at that I mean Ohio State has to go up in in your mind and I think they're going to be competitive in this game and Georgia probably wins this game but you know I don't be surprised at all of Ohio State kicks away field goal and steals it So you mentioned Ohio State's defense being you know fine in the situation total 62 and a half that's that's high for sure what do you think about that total you mentioned your numbers point value is it similar to the T.C. Michigan game where you're saying Yeah probably I mean you have to have a pretty healthy respect for what Georgia does on the defensive side of the ball there's going to be some NFL stars on that side sorry NFL players on that side of the ball they're pretty good can they slow down Ohio State Sure sure they can I'm probably staying away from the over Okay let's go to the player props here as well we talked about the down from Edwards one for the Michigan game what are you seeing it for Ohio State versus Georgia Yeah you know not as much a lot of these totals were like in respectable range so to me and Williams looks like he he he was banged up in the game against Michigan but it looks like he's healthy he's ready to go a very reasonable rushing total somewhere in the 60s or something like that 60s even half right now at Fandle You know they don't have trivia on Henderson who was their first choice at running back but me and Williams had more yards per carry this year so You know I'm not sure there's there's much of a drop off there Again like you would expect your top running back to have a rushing total somewhere somewhere south of 100 that's where it is so I'm not really seeing a ton of value there it's just not the kind of the confluence of events to put a rushing total in the 130s like like it is in the other game Yeah it could be a situation where you if you really feel good about Ohio State plus six and a half maybe that entices you to take the mind or mind Williams number again six six and a half right now Over at Fandle sports book you kind of make the assumption of okay they keep this game close neutral script throughout they can run Williams later on I think that the one I want to see later on is if we get a CJ Stroud rushing number posted at some point because we talked about that earlier on where in the Northwestern game where there was heavy wind and it was a They had to run to get the offense cooking he did run that he doesn't run very often but I think that's when I would check out later on see if we get a Stroud rushing Prop posted I think that could be interesting it's not a guarantee does it because he doesn't like to run I think he actively does not want to but I would check that out if it does get posted because That could be around for Ohio State changing things up if they do struggle at any point offensively yeah I think I think that's a really good point I think I would like a Stroud rushing Total I think I saw a JJ McCarthy rushing total at 16 and a half which is which is what it was at in the Ohio State game right I like that less against TCU because there's a lot of game scripts where Michigan's in control and they don't need to run their quarterback I think it's more likely that Stroud has to run just yeah you know whether George's defense has a good game or whether they're down or whether you just need to pick up some plays So if they you know if they had something like Stroud at 16 and a half Because I mean because he's capable yeah and if he doesn't I think even if he doesn't like to run I think that goes out the window when you're in the national semifinal game Exactly and you need to first down and you need to move the ball Yeah McCarthy finished with 27 in that game against Ohio State and that's again with the sack yardage all that being factored in as well Yeah no so I think he had more if you take out the sack yards Right And I believe that the sack yards don't count Okay If that's like they don't count towards those quarterback Russian totals Okay that helps a lot because that's scary against Georgia for sure but I think that's the route I'd be looking at in terms of props to that game To seeing what Stroud opens up at and deciding is the fair number under the assumption he may run a bit more worth it being a higher leverage game Now of course that it's not just the semifinals happening this weekend you can also still dabble in the futures market That's still up for you right now and a big inflection point coming up on Saturday where markets will change drastically We talk about that how we want to bet prior to inflection points that we can predict the way things will break So are you seeing any value there in the futures market before Saturday's games? Yeah absolutely I mean I the funniest thing about that Ohio State Michigan game is that I've now become like the biggest Proponent of a betting on Ohio State but I have a legitimate like one in three chance that they win the national title I see really close my number see really close game against Georgia and Ohio State would be favored against Michigan at this point in the national title game That could obviously change after the semifinal game but so it's about one in three I mean you can get plus 360 on Fandal for Ohio State to win I do think there's value there And for all the reasons mentioned above for you know all the analysis simple analysis of You know who's the best quarterback and who's the best receiving core of those four teams and then and then also like I mean It's been colored a little bit by the Michigan game but you know there was For months I was pretty certain the Ohio State had made absolutely the right hire for defensive coordinator in Jim Knowles I mean the defense had been really good for a lot of the year I think it's a very solid unit I think they have the right guy a defensive coordinator So I think there's value there you can probably get a better I mean I would shop around I think you probably find a better number than plus 360 out there But I do think there's value Yeah plus 360 the implied odds there 21.7% which means a lot of value and you got a lot of wiggle room them to be wrong you know If the numbers are too high in Ohio States they have to be pretty wrong for that to not be of value and I think that's encouraging too If you want you want that wiggle room and that is baked in there and again it comes back to what we talked about Ripple effects from a big high profile game that span to now three different markets potentially Yeah and I think there's a lot of similarities to what Georgia went through last year Sure They win the SEC championship game they got annihilated by Alabama but a lot of that was big plays and turnovers turnovers on the Georgia part Big plays on the Alabama part Georgia was actually better in that game by success rate so kind of the same story So you know Georgia comes in the back door and and yeah they got it done last year so I think there are similarities there And yeah I think there's value Well I'd love a rematch between Michigan Ohio State I think that'd be a blast as a big 10 guy would love that so we'll see how things play out on Saturday With two really fun games hopefully very competitive games as well That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread but Ed I wanted to give you a chance first to plug anything you got going on over the powerink or on the football analytics show Yeah check out my free email newsletter at thepowerank.com come out every Saturday with Seven Nuggets Saturday which is an assorted list of curated list of tips and news and humor And then I also write about bets that I have made so check that out at thepowerank.com Alrighty and find Ed on Twitter at the powerink I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis We are back once again tomorrow to break down NFL week 17 with Tom Vecchio getting his full read on this week's biggest games Also check out our week 17 first look up on the covering the spread podcast feed and the fan dual YouTube page We'll talk to you all once again tomorrow. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network